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Analysis

BICOM Briefing: Israel responds to rocket fire with military operation

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Last update: 10.30 am (GMT), 16/11/2012

Key Points

  • Following several days of Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza at Israeli towns, on 14 November Israel launched operation ‘Pillar of Defence’  with a series of targeted airstrikes against senior Hamas military commanders and weapons facilities in the Gaza Strip. The first target was top Hamas military commander Ahmed al-Jabari (see short profile below).
  • Since the beginning of the operation, over 300 rockets have been fired at Israel, including two medium range Fajr-5 rockets that reached the outskirts of Tel Aviv yesterday, triggering air raid sirens across the city. A rocket landed in the city of Rishon LeZion on Thursday, 12 km from central Tel Aviv. After a relatively quiet night in Israel two further Grad rockets landed in Ashdod Friday Morning.  So far three Israelis have been killed, in a single strike Thursday morning.
  • Escalations in rocket fire from Gaza at Israeli towns have become increasingly frequent in the last year, with Israeli decision makers until now choosing a relatively low-key response to prevent a more serious conflict developing. However, with normal life for Israeli civilians in southern Israel deteriorating rapidly, Israel has now been forced to act.

Latest developments

  • Israel launched operation ‘Pillar of Defence’ on 14 November, following several days of Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza at Israeli towns. The operation began with a series of targeted airstrikes against senior militant leaders and weapons facilities in the Gaza Strip. The first targeted was a top Hamas commander Ahmed al-Jabari. Other key Hamas militant leaders have also been targeted, including al-Jabari’s number two, Raed al-Atar.
  • Since the beginning of the operation, over 300 rockets have been fired at Israel, including two medium range Fajr-5 rockets that reached the outskirts of Tel Aviv yesterday, triggering air raid sirens across the city. A rocket landed in the city of Rishon LeZion on Thursday, 12 km from central Tel Aviv. After a relatively quiet night in Israel, two further Grad rockets landed in Ashdod Friday Morning.
  • Three Israeli civilians, two men and a pregnant woman, were killed by direct strike from a Palestinian rocket in the southern Israeli town of Kiryat Malachi on Thursday morning Israeli schools in the area are still closed, with close to a million Israelis within range, and forced to take cover in bomb shelters.
  • The Iron Dome anti-missile defence system has reportedly intercepted over 130 rockets, claiming a 77 per cent success rate. However, a number of rockets continue to evade the defence system, which does not cover all Israel’s population centres.
  • Israel’s military operation against armed groups in the Gaza Strip looks set to continue on Thursday with the IDF dropping leaflets over Gaza warning civilians to stay away from “Hamas operatives and facilities”. Israeli authorities also placed thousands of phone calls to Gaza residents warning them of IDF strikes in their area.
  • Further phases of the operation are planned, with the use of ground troops in the next few days a strong possibility. IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz on Friday morning approved the call-up of 16,000 reserves soldiers. Some of the call-up orders had already been issued, and many reservists are on their way to their units.

Why has Israel launched this operation now?

  • The last year has seen a pattern of periodic escalations of rocket and mortar fired at Israeli towns by Palestinian armed groups in the Gaza Strip, lasting several days, followed by periods of relative calm. In recent months the escalations have become more frequent. 563 missiles and rockets and 204 mortars were fired into Israel between January and October 2012.
  • Most analysts assume that Hamas itself has not been the main instigator of these escalations, and that it is has been dragged into these exchanges by smaller factions, which it is failing to control. However, Hamas in recent escalations has increasingly joined in the launching of rockets. Israel has consistently made clear that it holds Hamas, the group that controls the Gaza Strip, responsible for all rockets fired.
  • The latest escalation, which began on Saturday 10 November, was triggered by a Palestinian armed group firing an advanced anti-tank missile at an IDF jeep patrolling the Gaza-Israel border, injuring four soldiers, two of them seriously. This followed a series of Palestinian attacks of increasing audacity, including the large detonation of a tunnel on the Israeli side of the border targeting Israeli soldiers on 8 November, and the detonation on an IED on the border on 23 October which seriously injured an Israeli officer.
  • Israel responded to the attack on the jeep with tanks shelling the source of the fire. This in turn sparked a volley of over 100 rockets and mortars fired from Gaza at Israeli towns and cities between 10 and 12 November, for which a number of armed groups claimed joint responsibility, including Hamas.
  • Israeli casualties until now have remained relatively low, in part due to early warning sirens and the Iron Dome anti-missile system, but the lives of Israelis living within range have been seriously affected, with hundreds of thousands taking refuge in bomb shelters.
  • Until now Israel has been reluctant to launch a major military operation on the scale of Operation Cast Lead at the end of 2008, not wanting to trigger a larger conflict with Palestinian armed groups that would further disrupt the lives of Israelis in the south of the country. It has also been concerned about the potential diplomatic cost in terms of international opinion, and, in the context of the Arab Spring, its extremely fragile relationship with Egypt. But with normal life for Israeli civilians in southern Israel deteriorating rapidly, Israel has now been forced to act.
  • Key stats for November 10-13 (prior to the launch of the operation):
    • Rockets and mortars fired at Israel: 112 (causing 8 injuries)
    • Israeli airstrikes into Gaza: 14 (causing 7 deaths and 26 injuries according to Palestinian reports)
    • Iron Dome rocket interceptions:

What has been the international reaction?

  • President Obama expressed his support for Israel in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A US State Department Spokesman said, “There is no justification for the violence that Hamas and other terrorist organizations are employing against the people of Israel”, and added, “We support Israel’s right to defend itself.”
  • Foreign Minister William Hague on Thursday said that Hamas bears ‘principal responsibility’ for the current crisis in Gaza and southern Israel. He added that the government ‘deeply regrets’ the loss of civilian life in the conflict and called for Hamas to cease attacks. He also called on ‘those in the region with influence over Hamas to use that influence to bring about an end to the attacks.’
  • Meanwhile, Egypt reacted sharply to the Israeli operation, recalling its recently appointed ambassador. In an unprecedented move, Egypt’s President Mohamed Mursi also sent his Prime Minister, Hesham Kandil, to visit Gaza on Friday morning in a show of solidarity.
  • Egypt has also reportedly increased its troop presence along its border with Israel, in order to prevent any terrorist activity spilling over from the Sinai.
  • The United Nations Security Council met in closed session along with the parties Wednesday. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, reiterated his, “strong condemnation of rocket fire out of Gaza and noted his expectation that Israeli reactions are measured.”  He also called for the parties to exercise the utmost restraint and to respect international humanitarian law. According to Israeli media reports on Thursday, Ban Ki-moon will visit Israel next week in an attempt to bring about an end to Operation Pillar of Defence and the continuing rocket fire from Gaza,

Who was Ahmed al-Jabari?

  • Ahmed al-Jabari commanded Hamas’ military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, coordinating attacks against both Israeli soldiers and civilians. Most recently, the al-Qassam Brigades have been one of the main groups in Gaza behind the recent escalation, with over a 100 rockets landing in southern Israel.
  • Arrested by Israel in 1982 for planning terror attacks, al-Jabari spent 13 years, where he met some of Hamas’ top leaders and decided to join the movement. In 2002, al-Jabari became the operational head of the militant wing at the height of the Second Intifada. Al-Jabari, as a high-ranking Hamas member, played a leading role in Hamas’ forcible takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007, in which Fatah forces after a week of bloody fighting were expelled.
  • As an operational commander of Hamas military wing al-Jabari was in charge of overseeing the imprisonment of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who was captured by Hamas in 2006 and held in captivity for 1,941 days.

Further resources

  • Click here to read our new publication: The Changing Terrain: An Interim Assessment of the Arab Spring and its Policy Implications – November 2012.