BICOM

On 15 November, on a BICOM conference call, Haaretz defence correspondent Amos Harel briefed journalists on the latest developments in the conflict between Israel and armed groups in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, and Chief Inspector Micky Rosenfeld, the foreign press spokesman for the Israel Police, briefed journalist about the impact on the Israeli home front. The following is a summary of their remarks. This briefing was held shortly before a rocket landed in the Tel Aviv area Thursday afternoon.

Amos Harel

What does the assassination of Ahmed al-Jabari mean in the long term?

• With the assassination of Ahmed al-Jabari, the commander of Hamas military wing, the organisation was most likely caught off guard.  Al-Jabari was not just head of Hamas’ military wing but was the chief contact for relations with Egypt and Iran.
• Shortly after targeting al-Jabari, the IDF struck Hamas and other militant groups’, arsenals of medium to long range rockets. These Fajr-5 rockets are made in Iran, smuggled through Africa to Gaza and have a range of about 50 miles, which means they could hit Israel’s major population centres, including Tel Aviv.
• The targeting of al-Jabari could have similar reverberations to when Israel assassinated Imad Mughniyah, the senior Hezbollah commander, a death the Shia Lebanese group has still not recovered from. At this point it is unclear how central al-Jabari was to Hamas, but his loss will certainly be felt. He was very active in the day-to-day operation of Hamas’ armed wing, and could be seen in pictures escorting Gilad Shalit to the Rafah Crossing during last year’s prisoner exchange. Al-Jabari, who was known for being extremely cautious, probably felt immune from Israeli retaliation after the Shalit exchange, as he had become a national figure.

Looking forward, what scenarios has the recent escalation brought to the fore?

• The most important question now for Israeli military planners is if Hamas still has the capability to hit Tel Aviv. If Hamas does still possess Fajr-5 rockets and launches them towards Tel Aviv this would most likely trigger to an Israeli ground excursion into Gaza. On the other hand, if Hamas does not launch longer range rockets there is still a chance for de-escalation.
• The Fajr-5 rockets are much larger, around 6m long, and less manoeuvrable than their smaller counterparts. Therefore, weather conditions permitting, these rockets are easier for the IDF to spot and eliminate before they are launched.

How has the Iron dome anti-missile defence battery been received?

• The Iron Dome anti-missile system is so far being viewed as an operational success. The system has intercepted 80 per cent of rockets launched towards Israel’s population centres. The three killed in Kiryat Malachi could have been 15-20 if no Iron Dome anti-missile battery was operational. The success of the missile battery has given Netanyahu operational latitude, as a higher casualty rate would have increased the calls in Israel for a ground campaign inside Gaza.

What does this escalation mean for Israel’s relationship with Egypt?

• Another major factor in the current escalation is Egypt’s involvement. The situation is very different from in the past. Israel now has Mursi as a neighbour instead of Mubarak. Egypt’s ambassador to Israel has already been recalled (though it is not official yet), and early indications from Cairo suggest Mursi’s government is taking the violence very seriously, whilst blaming Israel for the current escalation.
• Mursi will be under a lot of pressure domestically, which unlike his predecessor he is more exposed to, if he does not take harsher measures against Israel.

Is it Hamas who have been firing the rockets?

• For the last two months there has been a steady rise in violence in the Gaza border area, spearheaded by Hamas. The military wing of Hamas has conducted more strikes near the border fence, with the most recent attack in this area taking place on Saturday 10 November when an anti-tank missile was fired at an IDF jeep, seriously injuring four Israeli soldiers.
• Since yesterday afternoon, Hamas has taken a larger role in launching rockets. On the ground the situation is probably not as coordinated as one would think, but Hamas, for the moment, has given all groups in Gaza the ‘green light’ to launch as many rockets as possible.
• Since Operation Cast Lead ended in 2009 there has been tension between Hamas’ two main objectives. On the one hand the group has attempted to remain the leader of Palestinian ‘resistance’ against Israel. On the other hand, Hamas, as the de-facto governing body of Gaza, has to be responsive to the needs to the people it governs – providing essential goods and services. Over time Hamas’ ability to accomplish both these objectives has become less attainable. In this respect, the current escalation could be seen as consequence of Hamas miss-calculating Israel’s response to it becoming more responsible for rocket fire emanating from Gaza.

What is the end game for Israel?

• Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Defence Minister, Ehud Barak, have been very careful not to set lofty goals that would prove difficult to achieve. Neither of them spoke about toppling the Hamas regime in Gaza, as former-PM Ehud Olmert did in 2009. The goals, so far, have been quite modest: changing the ‘rules of the game’ around the strip and putting in place a longer cease fire, so rockets are not being fire every week towards the people of southern Israel.
• The IDF’s air campaign, however, will begin to lose effect by the end of tomorrow and by Saturday and Sunday Netanyahu will need to start thinking about the end game. In particular, he will have to decide whether a ground incursion is necessary or if a quick cease-fire can be achieved. Right now, Israel does not want to get embroiled in a long ground campaign.
• Netanyahu has found it extremely hard to ignore challenges from his political rivals and residents of southern Israel that he has not done enough to stop rocket fire from the Gaza Strip during his premiership. Netanyahu’s decision to launch begin an operation was most likely made a few days ago and was made for many reasons, with political pressure definitely being one.
• One of the hallmarks of Netanyahu’s prime ministership, is the relative calm on Israel’s borders, he is a cautious commander by nature but events in recent days have pushed him into action.

Chief Inspector Micky Rosenfeld

What are the implications for Israel’s home front?

• The Israeli Police are dealing with Hamas rocket fire, with projectiles landing in all Israel’s major cities in the south. Today alone, more than 200 rockets have been fired from all over the Gaza strip into southern Israel.
• The three people that were killed this morning, plus two adults moderately and one child seriously injured, only had 45 second to take cover from when the rockets were launched from Gaza. Hamas with its rocket fire are targeting Israel’s major population centres rather than IDF targets. Therefore, the message being sent from the Israel Police to the public is to make sure they are in or near safe zone and safe areas throughout the day.
• Looking ahead, based on security assessments being made, there will be heightened security all over Israel, including in the West Bank, in case of opportunistic terrorism due to the current escalation.  There will also be heightened security in Jerusalem on Friday in order to prevent any disturbances from taking place.