BICOM

For yesterday’s BICOM News Update on Operation Shield and Arrow, click here

What Happened: A night of quiet followed a further day of mass rocket barrages on Israel from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip.

• The day’s rocket fire ended at around 10.00pm last night, a last barrage fired at the Western Negev following some directed at the greater Tel Aviv area an hour or so earlier.
• Following Wednesday’s direct hits on homes in Sderot and Ashkelon, yesterday’s most damaging impact came in the central Israeli town of Rehovot, where an elderly civilian was killed, and 12 others suffered injury or shock when a rocket hit an apartment complex.
• Yesterday’s events bring the total this week, as of this morning, to 866 rockets fired from Gaza towards Israel.
• Of these, 672 crossed into Israeli territory, with 194 falling either in Gaza or the Mediterranean Sea.
• The Iron Dome defence system has intercepted 260 rockets whose trajectory showed a likely hit on populated areas, for a success rate of 91%. Its failure to intercept the crudely manufactured rocket which hit Rehovot has been blamed on a technical malfunction.

Israel continues targeting of PIJ figures

• Late Thursday and early Friday, Israel continued its targeted attacks on PIJ facilities and senior figures in Gaza in Operation Shield and Arrow.
• Following the killing of commander of PIJ rocket units Ali Ghassan Ghali in an apartment in Khan Yunis in the early hours of Thursday morning, his deputy, Ahmad Abu Deka, was killed in an airstrike in the southern Gaza town of Bani Suheila, near Khan Younis, yesterday afternoon.
• In a statement, the IDF stressed Abu Deka’s direct responsibility for recent rocket fire, particularly that targeted at Sderot, and also recalled his crucial involvement in civilian-targeting campaigns during Operation Guardian of the Walls and Operation Breaking Dawn.
• IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagarai confirmed that Abu Deka’s location had been known for two days before he was targeted, as the military waited for him to be separated from his family.
• Also on Thursday, the IDF struck a PIJ attack tunnel dug up to Israel’s security barrier with the Gaza Strip. The tunnel was, until August 2022, operated by senior PIJ figure Khaled Mansour, killed during Operation Breaking Dawn.
• Also on Thursday, the IDF struck PIJ rocket launchers, and a mortar launcher in Rafah, shortly after their use for the launching of attacks on Israel.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel’s security chiefs held a security briefing Thursday night at the IDF’s Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv. Israeli media cited a message from the Prime Minister’s office that that Israel would “continue to exact a heavy price from Islamic Jihad for its aggression against Israel’s citizens.” 

Context: the death of the Israeli civilian in Rehovot is the first during Operation Shield and Arrow.

• Israel has struck 170 terrorist targets, killing 16 terrorists in the process.
• The IDF is following a similar strategic policy seen in last August’s Operation Breaking Dawn: striking at meticulously verified PIJ targets in Gaza whilst seeking to avoid an escalation with Hamas.
• Similarities are also evident with November 2019’s Operation Black Belt and May 2021’s Operation Guardian of the Walls, with Yediot Ahronot commentator Yossi Yehoshua this morning noting that the success of these previous operations can be seen in PIJ’s decreased steep-trajectory rocket capability this time.
• While Hamas is known to have provided cooperation and approval for the PIJ rocket campaign greater than that seen during Operation Breaking Dawn, Israel has continued a policy of distinction between the two terror groups.
• Hamas personnel and facilities have not been targeted, and the Gazan terrorist organisation is unlikely to seek to provoke a protracted escalation of hostilities with Israel at this time. As the Strip’s governing authority, it fears the economic impact of the isolation a longer conflict would impose on the enclave, while 18,000 Gazans rely on working in Israel, a right suspended during conflict.
• Israel has also sought to contain hostilities to the Gaza Strip, and not to allow spill over to the West Bank. In parallel with the Gazan front, therefore, Israel has in recent days arrested some 25 PIJ terrorist operatives in the West Bank. Among them are several associates of Tarek Az Aldin, PIJ’s terror coordinator for the West Bank, who was killed in a strike on Tuesday.
• There are concerns over Iron Dome’s ability to cope with so sustained a demand. Despite its impressive interception rate, the failure to intercept the rocket in Rehovot follows a similar technical malfunction last week which saw rockets hit in Sderot, wounding three foreign nationals.

Who is PIJ: Established in the Gaza Strip in the 1980s PIJ’s aim is the annihilation of the State of Israel by force and the imposition of Islamic law.

• As their aims conform to Iranian goals, they receive most of their funding from Tehran.
• When Hamas took over the Gaza Strip in 2007, PIJ enjoyed almost complete freedom of action, and managed to grow in size to some 20,000 operatives.
• In addition to their Gazan operations, they have cells and infrastructure in the West Bank, particularly in the Jenin area, as seen with the arrests of the 25 operatives.
• Iran supplies the organisation with both financial support and weapons and training.
• Following the US killing of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, then leader of PIJ Ramadan Shalah visited Iran to pledge allegiance.
• Among its senior operatives killed in strikes this week have been:

• • Jahed Ahnam – Military Council Secretary
  • Khalil Bahitini – Senior Operational Officer of the Islamic Jihad in Gaza
  • Tarek Az Aldin – Senior Operative and Coordinator of Terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank
  • Ali Ghassan Ghali – PIJ Rocket Unit Commander
  • Ahmad Abu Deka – PIJ Rocket Unit Deputy Commander

Prospects for a ceasefire: a night of quiet has increased optimism for the chances of an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire.

• Israeli reports overnight indicated that negotiations had been resumed and Egyptian mediators were said to be optimistic about the chances of achieving a truce.
• While some reports have suggested that PIJ is eager for a ceasefire, its previous modus operandi is to have inflicted greater civilian suffering before agreeing to a truce.
• Israel, meanwhile, is likely to want to have sufficiently degraded PIJ capabilities before agreeing to a ceasefire.