BICOM

The Ceasefire

• An Egyptian-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) went into effect from 10.00pm last night.
• Rocket fire emanated from the Gaza Strip around an hour after, followed by Israeli strikes in response, but as of this morning the truce seems to be holding.
• Text of the ceasefire reads: “The two sides will abide by… an end to targeting civilians, house demolition, an end to targeting individuals immediately…”
• Israeli National Security Council Director Tzachi Hanegbi “thanked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and expressed the appreciation of the State of Israel for Egypt’s intensive efforts to secure a ceasefire. The NSC Director made it clear that Israel’s acceptance of the Egyptian initiative means that ‘quiet will be met with quiet’, and that if Israel is attacked or threatened, it will continue to do everything that it needs to in order to defend itself.”
• PIJ spokesman Dawoud Shehab, meanwhile, announced that the group “declare our acceptance of the Egyptian announcement and we will abide by it as long as the occupation (Israel) abides by it.”
• Meanwhile, in a televised press statement, PIJ leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah thanked Iran, Hezbollah, Qatar, and Egypt for their support during the conflict.
• Hamas, which although keen to avoid direct entanglement in the conflict has played a more collaborative role with PIJ then in previous recent campaigns, praised the “Palestinian Resistance Factions for defending the Palestinian people against the most recent Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip.” Tellingly, it referenced explicitly the Joint Operations Room it operated alongside PIJ.
• PIJ, for its part, praised the solidarity of all wings of the Palestinian movement, but did not name Hamas.
• UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “I welcome the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and militant factions in Gaza, brokered by Egypt. The ceasefire must now be honoured to prevent the loss of further civilian life. The UK will support all efforts to promote dialogue and create a pathway towards sustainable peace.”
• News of the ceasefire was also welcomed by both White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland.

• Hamas has announced a full return to normal in the Gaza Strip, while Israel will gradually relax restrictions imposed on the strip today. The Erez crossing reopened at 8:00 and Kerem Shalom 11:00, enabling the return to work in Israel of the 18,000 Gazans in possession of work permits. Coastal waters have also been reopened.
• Domestically, closed Israeli roads have reopened this morning, though schools will remain shut today in Ashkelon and on the Gaza periphery.

Operation Shield and Arrow in summary

• According to IDF figures, some 1234 rockets were launched at Israel from Gaza during the last week.
  • 976 crossed over into Israel.
  • 221 landed in Gaza.
  • 373 were intercepted by Iron Dome.
• The rocket fire caused two civilian deaths in Israel:
  • 80-year-old Inga Avramyan was killed when the ceiling of her Rehovot apartment collapsed following a direct hit last Thursday. According to Avramyan’s grandson, she was killed trying to help her paralysed husband reach shelter.
  • A Gazan construction worker was killed yesterday when a rocket hit the border moshav of Shokeda where he was working. A fellow Palestinian construction worker and an Israeli Bedouin were also injured, the former seriously.

• Israel struck 371 terrorist targets, including targeted assassinations of senior PIJ leaders, PIJ command posts, rocket facilities, and attack tunnels.
• On Friday, a sixth senior PIJ leader was killed by a targeted Israeli strike. Iyad al-Hassani, PIJ’s director of operations, a veteran of the al-Quds Brigades, and a prominent figure in attacks on Israelis during the Second Intifada, died alongside his assistant in a strike on the Nasser neighbourhood of Gaza City.
• Al-Hassani is the latest and perhaps final senior PIJ figure to be killed in Operation Arrow and Shield, joining Jahed Ahnam (Military Council Secretary), Khalil Bahitini (Senior Operational Officer in Gaza), Tarek Az Aldin (Senior Operative and Coordinator of Terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank), Ali Ghassan Ghali (PIJ Rocket Unit Commander), and Ahmad Abu Deka (PIJ Rocket Unit Deputy Commander)
• Overall, 33 Palestinians have died during the fighting over the past week: 10 were civilians, most of whom were family members of the three senior PIJ figures killed in the operation’s opening stages.
• IDF data suggests that a further four civilians were killed by misfiring PIJ rockets, which also caused at least 23 injuries.
• According to Palestinian media, a child, Tamim Daud, died from a heart attack brought on by the fighting.

From the commentators

• Yossi Yehoshua in Yediot Ahronot: “If [the ceasefire holds] … one can say that Operation Shield and Arrow was one of the most successful IDF and GSS operations to have been carried out in the Gaza Strip. Islamic Jihad was dealt a painful blow, possibly the most painful it has been dealt by Israel to date. It lost most of its top commanders in precision targeted killing operations that were carried out in the opening strike last week, and it continued to lose more top commanders amid the ongoing fighting. Islamic Jihad also found itself hard put to launch significant barrages of rocket fire on Israel that caused extensive damage… The way in which the operation ended can also be chalked up as a partial Israeli achievement. The IDF wanted to conclude this round of fighting as quickly as possible, as did the Israeli political leadership, and to capitalise on the fact that Egypt and Hamas were in favour of a ceasefire. Iran pressured Islamic Jihad into continuing the fight for as long as possible, and that pressure yielded results for five days—but not more than that. Islamic Jihad has emerged from this operation battered and bruised. Furthermore, taking a broader view of things, its patrons in Tehran also suffered a blow, one that arrived at a good time from Israel’s perspective given the Iranians recent brazenness.”

• Yoav Limor in Israel Hayom: “Israel would have run the risk of eroding [its] achievements as the operation ran longer. The number of high-quality targets would have grown smaller, and the chances of making a mistake would have risen (as would the chances of Islamic Jihad chalking up an operational success either by means of high trajectory rocket fire or anti-tank rocket fire at a chance target). With the passage of more time, Hamas also could have found itself painted into a corner. Currently, it enjoys the fact that Islamic Jihad’s capabilities have been eroded—namely, the group that poses a domestic challenge to it has been made weaker—but the closed border crossings and the subsequent fuel shortage and ongoing suspension of Gazans’ access to their jobs in Israel would have produced public pressure on it to solve the suffocating situation. To avert that, Hamas acted behind the scenes to advance a ceasefire agreement.”

• Amos Harel in Haaretz: “the key to a cease-fire wasn’t necessarily in Israel’s hands. It’s possible that Islamic Jihad learned from the previous round, which lasted three days in August of last year during Operation Breaking Dawn, and decided it was worthwhile to continue the clash for a bit longer. Even if it failed to cause multiple Israeli casualties, the fact that it was able to continue and hold out for a while in a confrontation with the IDF could be considered an achievement… What Islamic Jihad wasn’t able to do was to drag other organizations into the scuffle or to bring about clashes in other arenas around Israel. Hamas was comfortable, at least to a certain degree, that Islamic Jihad clashed with Israel and exacted a toll on it. Until Saturday, there weren’t any signs that the larger organisation intended to take an active part in the fighting. This could have happened, especially if many Palestinian civilians became casualties as the operation continued. There were no signs of a violent escalation in Jerusalem, the West Bank, near the borders of Lebanon and Syria or in areas near the Green Line.”