BICOM

On a BICOM conference call for journalists on 19 November, BICOM Senior Visiting Fellow Brig. Gen. (ret.) Michael Herzog assessed the chances of an Israeli ground offensive into the Gaza Strip, and discussed what a ceasefire might look like. The following is a summary of his remarks.

Key Points

• Israel is nearing a decision point between a cease fire and a further escalation, including the possibility of ground offensive, and a decision will come in the next few days.
• Egyptian involvement will be required to address Israel’s demands to prevent the smuggling of more rockets; Hamas’s demands for opening of Gaza’s borders with Israel and Egypt, and Egypt’s and Israel’s concern to contain small Jihadi groups.
• Israel would prefer to secure its goals without resorting to a ground operation, but if it feels sufficient deterrence has not been established, there may well be escalation to the use of ground troops.

Which direction is the conflict going in?

• Israel is nearing a decision point between agreeing a cease fire, and further escalation including a possible ground offensive. Analysing this decision requires looking at Israel’s aims, as defined by its leadership, which are relatively modest. They are to re-establish deterrence, to destroy the longer range rockets, and to restore normal life for Israeli citizens. The aim is not to topple Hamas, but to degrade its ability and motivation to fire rockets, and to ensure it imposes a ceasefire on smaller factions.
• Israel is not rushing to a major ground operation, because the high costs in terms of human lives and political costs are well understood. But if Israel’s leadership reaches the conclusion that sufficient deterrence has not been established, they will continue the pressure. The air campaign is getting more difficult with time. As the IDF runs out of pre-prepared targets, the risk to civilians in Gaza increases.
• Israel had little choice but to launch the operation given the attacks coming from Gaza, but the challenge for Israeli policy makers now is to choose the right exit point.

What might a ceasefire look like?

• The first and most basic element in every ceasefire is a ‘quiet for quiet’, in which both sides withhold fire. That is relatively easy to achieve but could easily collapse very quickly. Israel does not want to be back at square one in a few weeks.
• To stabilise and sustain a ceasefire will require additional elements including Egyptian mediation. Israel is very concerned to see action to halt the smuggling of weapons through the Egyptian controlled Sinai into Gaza. Egypt expects Hamas to take stronger action against smaller Jihadi armed groups operating in the Gaza Strip who are cooperating with Jihadi groups undermining security in the Sinai. Hamas expects that in return for quiet, they will get more opening of passages for goods and people across its borders with Israel and Egypt, which will help to enhance their control over Gaza. To make such an agreement is more complex and requires more time.
• Israel will also demand that Hamas enforce the ceasefire on all the smaller groups, something Hamas has been reluctant to do lately. They have been trying to balance between their responsibilities as a government and their identity as a resistance group. They were sensitive to accusations by the smaller groups of cooperating with Israel. Now they will have to make a choice in order for a ceasefire to be stable.

How are the changed dynamics of the Arab Spring affecting Egypt’s role?

• Israel is now operating in a very different strategic landscape. In 2008, during Operation Cast Lead, Israel was quietly encouraged by the Egyptians to destroy Hamas, and they expressed disappointment when Israel stopped short of doing it. Now the Muslim Brotherhood is less warm to Israel, but they are in a stronger position to mediate because they have greater leverage over Hamas.
• The Egyptians are currently being very careful in their actions and statements. They withdrew their ambassador for consultations but have not made statements close to those of the Turkish foreign minister who accused Israel of crimes against humanity. Egypt would ultimately like to mediate a deal that is good for all three parties.

What is the role of Iran in the escalation?

• A lot of the weapons being used by the armed groups in Gaza came from Iran. There is an ongoing flow of Iranian weapons through Sudan to the Sinai and through the tunnels from Egypt into Gaza.
• However, the current escalation was not triggered by Iran. There is currently a lot of tension between Iran and Hamas because Hamas would not support Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
• The current escalation has been caused by the mushrooming in recent years of jihadi groups who have not been willing to keep to the ceasefire established after Operation Cast Lead in 2009. Hamas did not act to control them, and as Israel responded to their rocket fire, Hamas increasingly involved itself directly in the fighting. Hamas perhaps miscalculated the Israeli response, believing that Israel would be deterred from a major operation because of the support Hamas now has from Egypt.
• A lot of weapons have also come from Libya since the fall of Gaddafi. Since, 2008, armed groups in Gaza have more than doubled their rockets to 12,000, including rockets which can reach Tel Aviv. However, most but not all of the longer range rockets were destroyed in the first phase of Israel’s operation.