BICOM

Introduction

Change, the term that has perhaps become the trademark of the current American presidential race, often remains ambiguous and hard to translate into concrete policies. This is also true regarding the future of US policies towards Israel and the Middle East in general. To be sure, the next administration will be asked to deal with several issues that have dominated the international agenda for some time, first and foremost the recent developments that will result from the international financial crisis. The following analyses will look at the future of US involvement in the Middle East, first by assessing the legacy of the Bush administration, and second by considering the policies and political inclinations of the two main candidates – Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain – and their capacity to implement these policies in the global arena.

There is agreement within the US, as well as around the world, that the clearest challenge facing the next president will be the rebuilding of America’s international leadership in the midst of a global economic crisis. Indeed, no other American asset has suffered as dramatically as the United States’ ability to shape the world’s opinion and play a determining role in the world’s future, and this has only deepened with its economic might dramatically fractured. If at all possible, reclaiming this position, which was held since the end of the Second World War and even enhanced after the demise of the Soviet Union, will require a change of tone and attitude as much as it will demand the transformation of military, economic and diplomatic policies.

Two reasons have contributed to the decline of US influence around the world. Following the terror attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon on 11 September 2001, the US administration directed its efforts against those it accused of harbouring the perpetrators. However, as one analyst noted, “The ‘global war on terror’ simply does not bring countries together in the same way” that, for instance, the Cold War glued transatlantic relationships.[1] Whilst the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan began with the support of many around the world, their handling and the difficulties in presenting convincing progress on the ground soon fractured the original coalition.

In addition, the past eight years have seen a significant redrawing of the international economic and geopolitical map, a trend that has dramatically accelerated in the past two months. China’s emergence as a world-scale economic powerhouse has also manifested itself in Beijing’s growing foreign influence. Similarly, Russia’s increasing energy revenues, under a leadership determined to regain regional and international dominance, presented further challenges to the US. Whilst the recent economic meltdown has had a clear effect on the US economy, the nature of the global markets will mean that economic growth in Moscow, Tehran and Beijing will be similarly affected. Under these new conditions, American diplomacy will have to factor in both economic and geopolitical interests in shaping its future policies.

As part of our four-part BICOM Focus on the US elections, three additional briefings will be published over the course of this week, together presenting the key elements that will shape US Middle East policy in the next four years. The candidates’ positions will be assessed against the dramatic changes in the global economy and the constraints it will place on the next president’s agenda.

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[1] Mitchell B. Reiss. “Restoring America’s Image: What the Next President Can Do.” Survival, Vol. 50 No. 5, October 2008, pp. 99-114.