BICOM

It is widely accepted that under the presidency of George W. Bush, the American administration focused most of its term on the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and had only limited involvement in reigniting the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process. However, the accelerated talks between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in the past year saw renewed American investment in the process, and the active engagement of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The resumption of US involvement was partly intended to garner the support of moderate Arab regimes at a time when Iran was enhancing its regional influence. It is likely that the next administration, either under the presidency of Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama, will seek to reinstate the US’s role as “a negotiator who can deliver” and contribute to progress in this process. Yet both have stated that other international conflicts are likely to take priority over the Israeli-Palestinian issue: in addition to the Iranian issue, which both candidates feel strongly about, Obama is likely to concentrate on Afghanistan, whereas McCain will focus on Iraq.

To begin with, the two candidates hold differing opinions regarding the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the wider region. Given the high international profile of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the effect it has on the US’s standing in the world, Obama believes it will require the next president’s close attention. “I think that this constant wound, that this constant sore, does infect all of our foreign policy. The lack of a resolution to this problem provides an excuse for anti-American militant jihadists to engage in inexcusable actions, and so we have a national-security interest in solving this,” he said.[1]

John McCain has disagreed with this assessment, stating that “it’s important to achieve peace in the Middle East on a broad variety of fronts and I think that if the Israeli-Palestinian issue were decided tomorrow, we would still face the enormous threat of radical Islamic extremism.”[2] Despite the differences in opinions, both share the view that it is impossible to isolate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from regional elements and that the US will have more pressing issues to engage in.

Senator McCain does not hide the fact that the most important regional issue for the US is the war in Iraq and this is likely to overshadow all other issues in the region, including the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Yet the Arizona senator did indicate that he will be personally involved in the talks, perhaps even assuming the role of chief negotiator.[3] However, Max Boot, one of McCain’s foreign policy advisors, has stated that “the McCain administration would not view the Israeli-Palestinian dispute as the most important issue facing the world and would not make it the main focus of its foreign policy.”[4] Other McCain advisors also remain cautious, suggesting that the issue will not take prevalence if the Republican senator is elected.

When asked two years ago about possible envoys he would send to the region, McCain mentioned Brent Scowcroft, foreign policy advisor to several Republican administrations; James Baker, former secretary of state under president George H.W. Bush; former special Middle East envoy General Anthony Zinni; and his two foreign policy advisors William Kristol and Randy Scheunemann.[5] Whilst this list is not official, it does give some indication that McCain would choose a conservative emissary who will understand Israel’s needs and will not seek to overly intervene in the negotiation process. This is also true to McCain’s insistence to avoid any statements that may seem to undermine his full support for Israel’s right to reach a resolution on its own terms.

Contrary to McCain, Obama sees the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations through their effect on broader US interests in the region. Obama believes that the policies of the current administration have sidelined US involvement in regional diplomacy, albeit increasing its military intervention. The Democratic candidate will look to reverse this pattern. Obama has therefore pledged to appoint a permanent envoy to the Middle East, with the names of Dennis Ross and former ambassador to Egypt and Israel, Daniel Kurtzer, mentioned in this regard. Both have substantial experience in working in the region, and are well respected in Jerusalem. Ross was deeply involved in the efforts to broker a deal during the Camp David Summit of 2000. However, his account of the period[6], which blamed Yasser Arafat for the collapse of the summit, may raise significant doubts in Ramallah.

In the past, Senator Obama has expressed some criticism of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. On one occasion he explained that “my job in being a friend to Israel is partly to hold up a mirror and tell the truth and say if Israel is building settlements without any regard to the effects that this has on the peace process then we’re going to be stuck in the same status quo that we’ve been stuck in for decades now.”[7] Sources close to the Democratic candidate suggest that he has deep curiosity regarding the situation in the region, and has invested efforts in familiarising himself in the details to make up for his relatively short experience in foreign and regional affairs.

Regardless of the statements from the candidates, US involvement will be determined by Israeli and Palestinian willingness to push the process forward. There is no doubt that if the talks near completion, any future administration will play a key role, whether under McCain or Obama. However, if Israel’s leadership shows no enthusiasm to progress and the Palestinian leadership remains in political turmoil, the next administration will avoid diplomatic embarrassment and minimise its involvement.

 

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[1] Jeffrey Goldberg. “Obama on Zionism and Hamas.” The Atlantic, 12 May 2008.

[2] Jeffrey Goldberg. “McCain on Israel, Iran and the Holocaust.” The Atlantic, 30 May 2008.

[3] Jeffrey Goldberg. “McCain on Israel, Iran and the Holocaust.” The Atlantic, 30 May 2008.

[4] Max Boot. “What I really said.” Commentary Magazine, 23 September 2008.

[5] John Judis. “The Other McCain.” The New Republic Online, 25 October 2006.

[6] Dennis Ross. “Think Again: Yasir Arafat.” Foreign Policy, No. 131, July/August 2002.

[7] Jeffrey Goldberg. “Obama on Zionism and Hamas.” The Atlantic, 12 May 2008.