BICOM

What’s happening: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to visit Israel this weekend as part of regional tour.

• He is due to meet Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, Defence Minister Benny Gantz and President Isaac Herzog.
• High on the agenda will be Israel’s mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine, but they are also expected to discuss Iran and the nuclear talks, the growing strategic importance of the Abraham Accords, and Israeli-Palestinian relations.
• Over the last couple of day Prime Minister Bennett has again spoken with both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky.
• Yesterday, US Acting Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs Yael Lempert said that the US “appreciates Israel’s role” in mediating between Russia and Ukraine.

Context on Israeli mediation between Russia and Ukraine: Earlier this week Prime Minister Bennett spoke at the Yediot Ahronot conference where he said: “At this stage, I am occupied with practical ways to help. Israelis should be proud of what we are doing for the civilians in Ukraine. From the first moments, we sent planes over with tonnes of medical equipment and medicine. We are helping in many aspects including in mediation efforts.”

• Israel is fully coordinated with the US and other Western leaders on mediation. Israel finds itself for the first time in its history as the conduit of back-channel talks to resolve an international conflict.
• At the UN yesterday Israel together with the US, UK, and EU adopted a resolution expressing grave concern over the humanitarian crisis developing in Ukraine following the Russian invasion.
• Israel’s Foreign Ministry noted: “The Israeli vote joins the clear and consistent position set out by the Israeli government and Minister of Foreign Affairs Yair Lapid. Israel condemns the Russian attack against Ukraine which breaches the international order and supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Israel supports a diplomatic solution and is even acting to assist towards this end.”
• Israel is transferring extensive humanitarian aid to Ukraine and is now operating an Israeli field hospital inside Ukraine.

Context of Secretary Blinken visit: This will be his second visit to Israel.

• Earlier this week the leaders of Israel, Egypt and the UAE held a historic three-way summit in Sharm el-Sheikh. They shared their concerns over the anticipated US concessions towards Iran.
• They see an increase in Iran’s subversive activities under the cover of the apparent agreement and fear the release of billions of dollars from sanctions relief to Iran will embolden its proxies to carry out more attacks.
• The possibility of the US removing the IRGC from their terror list has further increased the lack of trust between the US and Israel and the Gulf. However, following Bennett’s statement last week against the move, reports in the US suggest that the Biden administration has cooled to the idea, citing regional concerns.

Context following the terror attack: Israel is still reeling following the brutal terror attack in Beer Sheva this week where four Israelis were killed.

• The terrorist Muhammad Abu al-Qiyan was a 34-year-old Israeli Bedouin from Hura in the Negev. He had spent four years in prison for his affiliation with ISIS and an attempt to leave Israel and join ISIS fighting in Syria and Iraq.
• The initial investigation views this as an example of a lone wolf attack. The terrorist had no connection to Hamas or other Palestinians in the West Bank.
• The incident should not be viewed as part of coordinated efforts by Hamas ahead of Ramadan, despite the concerns that terror groups will look to increase attack Israeli targets.
• Bedouin leaders and Israeli Arab politicians have spoken out and strongly condemned the attack.
• Ahead of Ramadan Israel will again increase the quotas for workers from Gaza to enter Israel, expanding it to 20,000. The increased revenue for these workers is thought to have a significant impact in improving quality of life for tens of thousands of Gazans.
• Israel will also be increasing the number of workers from the West Bank into Israel and to allow Palestinians into Israel to pray at al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan.

Looking ahead: US Secretary of State Blinken is due to arrive in Israel on Saturday night.

• Blinken will also visit the West Bank and meet with Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah.
• Blinken will then also travel to Rabat, Morocco, to meet with Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita and Algeria to meet with their leaders.
• There is a possibility that Blinken will also meet with a senior representative of the UAE either in Jerusalem or Rabat.