BICOM

What happened: Prime Minister Naftali Bennett returned from a historic, unprecedented regional summit, hosted by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Sharm el-Sheikh, which also included UAE Crown Prince Mohammad bin Zayed.

• Shortly after returning to Israel, Bennett along with the leaders of all Knesset factions condemned the brutal terror attack in Beer Sheva where four people were killed. [For more details see our media summary below].
• The regional summit focused primarily on Iran and the dual threat of its regional activities and its nuclear programme.
• Bennett is believed to be pushing to establish a regional defence pact that would place leading Israeli anti-missile technology, including the new laser system being developed, around the region to provide protection against Iranian missiles, rockets and UAVs.
• Israel, the UAE and Egypt shared their concerns over the prospect of the US removing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the list of terror organisations as part of their return to the nuclear deal.
• The UAE also explained its approach to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who recently made an unexpected visit to the UAE.
• Bennett also updated them on his mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine. There is shared concern that the regional repercussions of the war will lead to a rising cost and shortage of wheat, in which Egypt is particularly reliant and vulnerable.
• They also discussed the Palestinian issue, including a range of Israel economic measures aimed at easing tension ahead of Ramadan – sadly made even more prescient following yesterday’s terror attack.

Context: Prime Minister Bennett flew to Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday, without announcing it ahead of time, becoming the first Israeli leader to sleep overnight in an Arab country in over 20 years.

• This was Bennett’s second meeting with President el-Sisi in Egypt. They appear to have developed amiable personal ties. At the end of the visit el-Sisi made a personal gesture by accompanying Prime Minister Bennett to his plane.
• Last week Israel and Egypt reached agreement to offer direct flights from Israel to Sharm el-Sheikh, in an effort to encourage Israeli visitors and give a boost to Egypt tourism.
• The UAE is pushing for the rehabilitation of Assad and for Syria to be readmitted into the Arab League. They argue that by doing so, Arab states can serve as a counterweight to Iranian influence in Syria.
• Israel understands the difficult situation vis-a-vis Assad and the Arab world. Whilst it shares the moral stance that disqualifies him as a legitimate leader, the paramount Israeli interest is in seeing the Iranian forces removed from Syria.
• Arab media have suggested that Israel and Egypt are working to jointly mediate with the UAE and Saudi Arabia to improve ties with the US. The UAE is extremely disappointed with the lack of US support following Houthis missile attacks last month. Subsequently, the UAE did not support the US in condemning Russia in the UN Security Council and have yet to increase their oil production to bring down the cost and offset the supply of Russian oil.
• The possibility of the US removing the IRGC from their terror list has further increased the lack of trust between the US and Gulf allies.
• The general approach of the Israeli government has been not to publicly clash with the US administration and air their criticism in private.
• However, last Friday Bennett and Foreign Minister Lapid issued a joint statement: “The IRGC are Hezbollah in Lebanon, they are Islamic Jihad in Gaza, they are the Houthis in Yemen, they are the militias in Iraq.  The IRGC are responsible for attacks on American civilians and American forces throughout the Middle East, including in the past year. The IRGC were behind plans to assassinate senior American government officials … they are an integral part of the brutal machine of oppression in Iran. Their hands have on them the blood of thousands of Iranians and the crushed soul of the Iranian society.”
• “The attempt to delist the IRGC as a terrorist organisation is an insult to the victims and would ignore documented reality supported by unequivocal evidence. We find it hard to believe that the IRGC’s designation as a terrorist organisation will be removed in exchange for a promise not to harm Americans.”
• “The fight against terrorism is a global one, a shared mission of the entire world. We believe that the United States will not abandon its closest allies in exchange for empty promises from terrorists.”

Looking forward: In an interview on Monday, Prime Minister Bennett repeated his warning that Israel is not party to the nuclear agreement, adding “the agreement doesn’t bind us. The Americans understand that and have assimilated that”.

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is planning to visit Israel next week.
• Israel will hope that by not causing friction with the US, if a deal is signed they will be compensated in the form of expanded military hardware including refuelling planes and advanced munitions.