BICOM

What happened: Thousands of protestors broke a government-enforced curfew in Baghdad for the third consecutive day of anti-government protests.

• At least 34 people have died and another 1,518 people have been injured in the protests, Ali Akram al-Bayati, a member of the Independent High Commission for Human Rights of Iraq, told CNN.
• Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi ordered a city-wide curfew in Baghdad from 5am on Thursday, but it was soon broken. Curfews were also imposed in the southern cities of Nasiriya, Amara, Najaf and Hilla on Thursday, according to Reuters.
• The protestors, angry about government corruption, poor public services and high unemployment, have accused government forces of using disproportionate violence in Baghdad and in the southern cities.
• In a conciliatory speech broadcast on state television early on Friday, Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi called the protesters’ demand for comprehensive reforms “righteous,” adding that the government needs to exert “greater effort” to combat corruption.
• On Wednesday, hundreds of protesters stormed the governors’ offices in Najaf and Nasiriyah, setting fire to parts of the buildings. Iraq closed two border crossing with Iran.
• Iraqi Authorities imposed an internet blackout and shut down 75 per cent of the internet across the country, according to Netblocks, an NGO monitoring internet disruption. By late Thursday, up to 60 per cent of internet connectivity had reportedly been restored.

Context: Iraq has the world’s fourth largest oil reserves, yet the government has continually failed to provide basic services to its people, with much of the population of 40 million living in poverty and experiencing only 12 hours of electricity each day.

• Iraq has witnessed massive protests in 2011, 2015 and 2018, the last of which erupted in the oil-rich south, heartland of the Shi’ite majority. The Iraqi government has been accused of robbing $450bn in state funds. Transparency International ranked Iraq 168 out of 180 nations in its Corruptions Perceptions Index in 2018.
• The US-led coalition against ISIS, which is headquartered in the Green Zone in central Baghdad, has called on “all sides to reduce tensions”.
• Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi promised to introduce change and fight corruption when he came to power a year ago, but he has failed to bring about meaningful reform. He has also failed to curtail the power of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, and many Iraqis have grown frustrated with a government they see as increasingly subservient to Iran.
• Protests over deteriorating economic conditions have rocked several other countries in the Middle East and North Africa this week. In Lebanon, protesters blocked roads and clashed with security forces last week over unemployment and decaying infrastructure. In Egypt, demonstrations over similar economic grievances led to an intensified crackdown on dissent. And in Jordan, an ongoing teachers’ strike is considered the longest strike in the country’s history.​​​​​​​

Looking ahead: The unrest in Iraq comes at a critical moment in the region amid soaring tensions between Iran and the US – both of which have military personnel in Iraq. The fear is that the protests could turn into a proxy battlefield between the two sides, similar to the situation in Iraq after the 2003 toppling of Saddam Hussein. This morning Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the top Shiite cleric in Iraq, will give his Friday Sermon and any sign of support for the protestors would give them momentum, and potentially cause major disruption to the Shi’ite pilgrimage of Arbaeen, when about 20 million worshippers are expected to journey across southern Iraq on foot on 9-10 October.