BICOM

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told his cabinet yesterday that the US was to blame for a failure to start negotiations, as reports emerged of unsuccessful efforts by French President Emmanuel Macron to mediate between the two sides at the UN General Assembly in September.

What happened: Rouhani told his cabinet that the French proposal to revive talks over the Iran nuclear deal was broadly acceptable. But he said that while the US privately indicated a readiness to engage in talks: “The American president on two occasions, once in his speech at the United Nations and another time, said explicitly that ‘we want to intensify sanctions’. I told these European friends, so which part should we accept? Should we accept your word that you say America is ready?”

• While Rouhani’s words yesterday displayed a possible interest in negotiations, comments by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, were less emollient.
• Khamenei yesterday threatened on Twitter that Iran would continue to breach the nuclear deal until it obtains the “desired results”.
• An interview with IRGC Quds force commander, General Qassem Soleimani, was broadcast on Iranian television on Tuesday, in which Soleimani claims he and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah barely escaped an Israeli air raid during the Israel-Hezbollah war of 2006.

Context: The French plan required Iran to agree never to acquire a nuclear weapon and to end disruption of shipping in the Persian Gulf. There are also indications that negotiations would have addressed specific issues with the 2015 nuclear deal such as the sunset clauses and also Iran’s wider regional behaviour and support for non-state actors. In return, the US would have been required to lift all recently imposed sanctions.

• According to Politico, the French plan failed because of Rouhani’s insistence that Trump give an indication that the US would lift sanctions. President Macron attempted to set up a phone call between Rouhani and Trump but Rouhani declined to participate in the call.
• Speaking at the UN General Assembly, Trump said: “As long as Iran’s menacing behaviour continues, sanctions will not be lifted; they will be tightened.”

Looking ahead: Rouhani’s remarks are clear evidence of a willingness to engage in talks and a response to the shifting positions of the UK, France and Germany, whose recent joint statement said Iran was behind the Saudi oil site attacks, condemned Iranian violations of the 2015 nuclear deal and called for talks on a new wide ranging deal.

• Iran’s continued insistence that US sanctions must be lifted puts the emphasis on the US to make some kind of concession to facilitate a Trump-Rouhani meeting. President Trump’s dealings with North Korea certainly indicate that he is not opposed to making major concessions to get talks started and create the appearance of progress with grand photo ops.