BICOM

The issue of the Iranian nuclear programme will be the focus of the first official visit of US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey, who arrives in Israel on Thursday evening. Dempsey is expected to reassure Israel that the Obama administration is committed to stopping Iran’s nuclear programme, even if it ultimately comes down to using military force. Top US officials have recently said that the US will not allow Iran to build a nuclear weapon, and the President himself in an interview with Time magazine said that the US would take ‘every step available’ to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

There are reports of differences between the countries on the impact of sanctions, how long they have to work, and what constitutes the final red line before a military strike – the capability of the regime to build a bomb or the decision for it to do so. The assessment from Jerusalem is that although it is important to continue and widen economic sanctions against Iran, there is little time left to see if the diplomatic efforts are able to stop Iran’s nuclear programme. Washington’s assessment on the time left for sanctions appears more optimistic. A high-ranking Obama administration official told Israeli journalists yesterday that the sanctions imposed on Iran are effective and will induce Tehran to drop their nuclear programme within less than an a year, forecasting the collapse of the Iranian economy if the status-quo prevails.

Dempsey will meet with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz. Gantz met yesterday with both Dempsey and Britain’s Chief of Staff General Sir David Richards, at a conference of chiefs of staff and army heads of NATO in Brussels.