BICOM

What happened: On Sunday Israeli Air Force (IAF) helicopters and jets were scrambled after an unidentified aircraft crossed from Syria into Israeli airspace.

• The aircraft was tracked by the IAF throughout the incident and was shot down in an open area over the Hula valley. The IDF spokesperson’s office confirmed the aircraft “posed no threat” and no alarm was activated.
• The incident followed a report on Friday of another IAF strike inside Syria. This time the attack was in Homs in western Syria. According to Syrian reports, the attack focused on the Dabaa military airport and weapons storehouses in Qusayr, which primarily serve Hezbollah.
• Syrian military officials reported that five Syrian army troops were injured in the attack and that some of the missiles were intercepted.
• A Syrian military official warned Israel: “The recurring attacks point to Israel’s weakness and the inability of the treacherous army to engage on the ground. This won’t pass quietly.”
• Defence Minister Yoav Gallant visited the Etzion Regional Brigade yesterday, but related remarks to the northern sector, warning, “We won’t allow the Iranians and Hezbollah to attack us. We haven’t allowed that in the past, we aren’t allowing that in the present and we won’t allow that in the future. We will push them out of Syria to the place they ought to be, and that is Iran.”

Context: The latest attack ascribed to Israel was the third attack in four days in Syria.

• More details have emerged from the strike near Damascus on Thursday night, where an Iranian military adviser was killed. According to Arab media reports, Captain Milad Haydari helped train pro-Iranian militias on fitting inaccurate rockets with precision-guiding systems. (See here for a previous BICOM paper on these).
• In addition, a second Iranian official who was wounded in the previous Israeli air strike reportedly died of his injuries.
• The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement accusing Israel of using the attacks in Damascus to try to distract public attention away from its domestic crisis.
• There are suggestions that Iran sees Israel as ripe for attack as it is perceived to be preoccupied with the domestic political turbulence. However, Israel has kept up its counterterrorism operations uninterrupted and despite the fractures inside Israeli society, the country always unites when faced with an external threat.
• The UAV into Israel and the latest strikes inside Syria can be seen through the prism of the wider Israel-Iran conflict. Just in the last month.
  • Iran has continued transferring weapons to Syria.
  • Iran also planned a terror attack in Athens targeting Israelis and Jews.
  •  Iran is also looking to increase support to Palestinian terrorist groups, as seen in the explosion at Megiddo junction last month.
• In parallel, Syria is continuing to rehabilitate its relations with the Arab world. In the latest rapprochement, the Syrian Foreign Minister Faisel Mekdad visited Cairo and met his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry.

Other security incidents: This morning the IDF entered Nablus to arrest two men suspected of involvement in the shooting attack in Huwara a week ago in which three IDF soldiers were injured.

• In the course of the operation and the exchanges of fire that lasted more than two hours, two Palestinians were killed after shooting at the Israeli troops, and several others were injured.
• Also over the weekend three Israeli soldiers were injured, one in critical condition, following a car-ramming attack in Gush Etzion.
• Palestinian sources identified the attacker, who was shot at and killed, as 23-year-old Muhammad Baradiya, an officer in the Palestinian Authority’s security forces. Shortly before the attack, he posted photographs of al-Aqsa Mosque with the caption, “We’ve asked for Paradise.”
• In a separate incident, Muhammad Al-Osaibi, an Israeli-Arab from Hura, was shot and killed by police in the Old City of Jerusalem. According to the police Al-Osaibi snatched one of the policemen’s guns and fired it without hitting anyone.
• Hura’s Mayor Habas al-Atawneh strongly rejected the police statement that framed the incident as a terror attack, claiming Al-Osaibi had never handled a weapon, and was a medical student who wanted to help his family.
• The police commanders have given backing to their forces. This morning the police said Al-Osaibi’s DNA was found on the gun.
• Unusually for the Old City, the incident occurred in a cctv blind spot, with no footage available.

Looking ahead: IDF troops are looking for parts of the downed aircraft. Only when it’s found will they be able to confirm if it was Iranian.

• Ahead of Passover, a general closure will be imposed on the West Bank and crossings from the Gaza Strip suspended, but only for the first day of the festival and it will be lifted for the intermediary days.
• In consideration of Ramadan and the desire to allow freedom of worship, Palestinian worshipers will be allowed to enter Jerusalem Friday to attend services on the Temple Mount.
• A second closure will be imposed on the territories on the eve of the last day of Passover. However, the crossings would be opened for humanitarian and medical cases as well as for other extenuating circumstances.