BICOM

What happened: Syrian officials claim that Israeli aircraft attacked a military position just outside Damascus last night.

• According to the Syrian military, they responded with anti-aircraft fire that intercepted some of the missiles, fired from the area of the Golan Heights just after midnight.
• This is the second night in a row in which there was an attack in the Damascus area.
• According to the UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the strikes targeted an arms depots for government forces and Iran-backed groups just south of Damascus.
• According to Syrian opposition sources, last night’s attack first targeted a radar station and an air defence system in the Damascus area, before striking a “moving target” that was part of a convoy that was travelling towards the “security complex” in Kafr Sousa.
• The Syrian foreign ministry condemned the attack and claimed this was Israel’s “attempt to escape internal fragmentation.”

Context: According to Syrian sources this was the sixth Israeli strike on Syria this month.

• As usual, Israel has not commented on these attacks. Israel does not formally claim every alleged strike but has acknowledged in the past that it carried out hundreds of strikes on military targets over the last few years in Syria.
• On March 22, an Israeli strike targeted the airport in Aleppo, thought to have been used by Iran for storing weapons.
• In response Iranian backed militias fired rockets at a base hosting US forces in northeast Syria, killing one American contractor. The US responded with air strikes on installations in eastern Syria that it said were affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
• The Kafr Sousa security complex was also targeted last month. It is considered an Iranian hub that serves as an Iranian barracks and headquarters.
• In December 2022, then IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi revealed details of an Israeli strike on a specific truck in a convoy that was smuggling weapons and was targeted near the Iraq-Syria border.

Broader context: These strikes are the latest example of Israel’s continued doctrine of the ‘campaign between the wars’ aimed at thwarting Iranian weapons transfers and the entrenchment of pro-Iranian militias in Syria.

• These operations are usually approved by the defence minister, who currently continues to serve under a cloud of ambiguity. Defence Minister Gallant was fired by Prime Minister Netanyahu at the beginning of the week, however was never sent a formal dismissal letter in writing, so continues to serve. There are suggestions that he will apologise to the prime minister for calling for a halt on the judicial reform at a time when the prime minister was abroad, and will then have his dismissal revoked.
• Gallant, a former Maj. Gen., enjoys the support not only of the senior military commanders, but was also regarded as a trusted figure by the US administration.
• The continued Israeli air force operations over the skies of Syria further highlight the crucial role of pilots, amid some of their vocal concerns over judicial reform.
• Israel–US ties have been in focus the last couple of days following comments by President Biden who expressed his displeasure at the proposed judicial reforms.
• Nevertheless, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen spoke on the phone last night. Among the issues discussed was the Iranian threat.
• Blinken also “reiterated the continued US commitment to a two-state solution, welcomed recent efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israelis and Palestinians through meetings in Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh.”

Looking ahead: Israeli targeting of Iranian assets in Syria is likely to continue, according to military intelligence’s risk assessment.

• Today is the second Friday of Ramadan, which has so far been relatively quiet, but Israeli security forces remain on high alert over warnings of potential attacks.