BICOM

What happened: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken completed his visit to the region having first met Egyptian President Sisi in Cairo and then engaged with a range of Israeli figures before travelling to Ramallah to see Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

• During his meeting with Abbas, Blinken expressed “sorrow for the innocent Palestinian civilians who have lost their lives in escalating violence over the last year”, while also condemning Palestinian celebrations of last Friday’s deadly terror attack in Jerusalem.
• Blinken also criticised the PA for its announcement of a suspension of security cooperation with Israel.
• Later, in his final press conference back in Jerusalem, Blinken professed “deep concern about the current trajectory”, with his fears for the prospects for a two-state solution focussed chiefly on Israeli actions and proposals by coalition figures.
• “The United States will continue to oppose anything that puts that goal further from reach,” he said, “including but not limited to settlement expansion, legalisation of illegal outposts, moves toward annexation of the West Bank, disruptions to the historic status quo at Jerusalem’s holy sites, demolitions and evictions, and incitement and acquiescence to violence.”
• At their Monday meeting, both Netanyahu and Blinken stressed the closeness of US-Israeli ties and urged the extension of the Abraham Accords, though with the Prime Minister acknowledging Blinken’s reservation that “these efforts are not a substitute for progress between Israelis and Palestinians”. “Expanding the circle of peace,” said Netanyahu, “working to close, finally, the file of the Arab-Israeli conflict I think would also help us achieve a workable solution with our Palestinian neighbours.”
• In his own comments, Blinken hinted at US concerns over the new Israeli government’s policy direction by noting that the bilateral relationship was one which included “holding ourselves to the mutual standards we’ve established; and by speaking frankly and respectfully, as friends do, when we agree and when we do not.”
• He then became more specific, with remarks widely interpreted as urging Israeli caution on judicial reform. Stressing US-Israel shared values, he said: “That includes our support for core democratic principles and institutions, including respect for human rights, the equal administration of justice for all, the equal rights of minority groups, the rule of law, free press, a robust civil society.”
• In an implicit endorsement of the protest movement, Blinken added that “the vibrancy of Israel’s civil society has been on full display of late.” In an unusual move, he also found time to meet with a range of civil society leaders, including representatives of organisations promoting coexistence, ultra-Orthodox employment, and LGBTQ rights.
• In remarks designed to assuage American concerns over judicial reform, Netanyahu referred to the US and Israel as “two strong democracies which will remain, I assure you, two strong democracies.”
• On Iran, while Netanyahu placed the focus on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activity, Blinken was careful to include its arming of Russia in his remarks. Adding, “Russia’s ongoing atrocities only underscore the importance of providing support for all of Ukraine’s needs – humanitarian, economic, and security.”
• Blinken continued this theme in his discussions with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen. “We appreciate Israel’s humanitarian assistance,” said Blinken, adding that “we look forward to discussing what more can we do.”
• In his meeting with Blinken, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant championed the “exceptional” recent joint military exercise, “Juniper Oak”, as emblematic of the close and unbreakable bond of cooperation enjoyed by both nations.

Context: Blinken’s visit came in the wake of Friday’s deadly terror attack; the largest ever US-Israeli joint military exercise; and American concern over the new Israeli government’s judicial reform agenda.

• The visit follows US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s trip two weeks ago and a more recent trip made by CIA director William Burns.
• Blinken’s interventions on democracy and judicial reform came as the government’s proposals continue to prove hugely divisive. Yesterday again saw hi tech workers join protests against the planned changes.
• Blinken’s channelled President Herzog’s recent calls by recognising that “building consensus for new proposals is the most effective way to ensure they’re embraced and that they endure.”
• The PA announced the suspension of security cooperation in the wake of last Thursday’s Israeli raid in Jenin. It has previously withdrawn cooperation while retaining some on the ground cooperation. Indeed, in conversation with CIA director William Burns on Sunday, Abbas hinted for the first time that intelligence sharing with the Israelis was ongoing and that full engagement could be resumed in future.
• Over 180 Palestinians have been killed since the beginning of 2022, though in Israel’s assessment over 90% were members of terror organisations or active combatants.
• Cohen took office promising to “talk less” on Russia-Ukraine, but has recently confirmed that he is shortly to become the first Middle Eastern foreign minister to visit Kyiv since the start of the Russian invasion.
• The Juniper Oak military exercise, widely interpreted as a signal to Iran of US-Israeli preparedness, was the largest joint exercise the two states have conducted. It included close to 8,000 troops combined and tested some of the militaries most advanced technology.
• Also on the Israel – US bilateral agenda is Israel’s access to the US visa waiver programme, with talks ongoing.

Looking ahead: Netanyahu plans to visit the US soon for further bilateral discussions on Iran and other shared security concerns.

• Ahead of Cohen’s Kyiv visit, it remains to be seen whether Israel will respond to Blinken’s urging and alter the careful balance it has struck on Russia-Ukraine. In remarks to CNN immediately after Blinken’s departure, Netanyahu claimed to be “certainly looking into” increased military support to Ukraine, and highlighted Israeli cooperation in transferring a stockpile of Israeli-based US weapons to Kyiv.
• The Knesset’s Constitution, Law and Justice Committee yesterday continued its discussions on judicial reform proposals.