BICOM

What’s happening: This week saw US Central Command (CENTCOM) and the IDF begin “Juniper Oak 23.2”, a wide-ranging series of exercises in Israel and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

• The size of the exercise is unprecedented: “We can’t really find another that even kind of comes close,” a senior US defence official said.
• Under joint US-Israeli command and control, Juniper Oak is “all-domain”, meaning it includes scenarios for all conceivable conflict arenas: on land, in the air, at sea, in space, and in cyberspace.
• It mission areas consist of: Air operations in maritime surface warfare; Combat search and rescue; Electronic attack; Suppression of enemy air defences; Strike coordination and reconnaissance; Air interdiction.
• A “large-scale live fire event” will also be included, involving:
  • Over 140 aircraft, including B52s (which will conduct bomb runs in southern Israel in cooperation with IAF squadrons), F35s, F15s, F16s, FA-18s, AC-130, and AH64s.
  • 12 naval vessels (6 Israeli and 6 US, including a carrier strike group).
  • High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems.
  • Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.
• The Israeli Navy’s Sa’ar 5-class corvettes and a submarine will refuel from an American replenishment tanker “to expand the IDF’s ranges and areas of operation in routine and emergency situations.”
• Over 1,100 Israeli personnel will take part, alongside nearly 6,500 American troops, the bulk stationed on the USS George Bush aircraft carrier, as well as another 450 American troops stationed in Israel.
• Though planning began in consultation with the previous Lapid government, US officials have nonetheless stressed that the speed with which this exercise has been put together is unusual.

Context: While Iran has not been mentioned explicitly in either CENTCOM or the IDF’s official statements on Juniper Oak, US officials have privately confirmed analysts’ interpretation that such a large-scale and public military exercise is intended to send a clear message to the Islamic Republic as to joint US-Israeli capability and preparedness.

• “It would not surprise me,” said one senior US defence official to NBC, “if Iran sees the scale and the nature of these activities and understands what the two of us are capable of doing.”
• The exercise follows reports last week that the Israeli Air Force is seeking new F-15 EX aircraft from the US. F-15s would give the IAF an extended strike range and increased payload capacity.
• Juniper Oak follows a joint Air Force exercise which simulated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in November 2022. A further joint exercise held in the first week of January 2023.
• Juniper Oak is the most significant joint activity since then-President Trump moved Israel from US European Command (EUCOM) to CENTCOM in January 2021.
• Since its establishment in 1983, CENTCOM has functioned as the US’s unified combatant command responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia.
• Until Trump’s move, Israel had previously been excluded from its command – falling in EUCOM, instead – at the insistence of other Middle Eastern states.
• By being brought into the CENTCOM orbit, Israel is now part of a much more muscular unified combatant command and, crucially, one with Iran as part of its area of responsibility.
• Juniper Oak represents the peak of increased Israeli-CENTCOM coordination over the past 12 months. So large an exercise was foreshadowed when, near the end of his tenure, Recently retired IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi confirmed that joint military activities would shortly be “significantly expanded.”
• The exercise is also being interpreted as a message of reassurance to regional Sunni allies of the US that despite its regional draw-down, the US remains committed to the region.
• US troop numbers in the Middle East have reduced to a historically low level of 30,000-35,000. Regional allies have been concerned that The National Defence Strategy’s prioritising of China, and the US focus on Russia-Ukraine, have come at the expense of its commitments to its Middle Eastern allies.
• The senior US defence source addressed these concerns in the context of Juniper Oak to NBC: “What we think this exercise demonstrates is we can walk and chew gum at the same time… We still have the excess capacity to be able to flex to another high priority area of responsibility and conduct an exercise on this scale.”
• Though not active participants in the exercise, officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council groups of states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) and from Egypt, Iraq and Jordan are likely to be briefed by the US after its completion.
• CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Kurilla also perhaps hinted at the future formal involvement of Sunni allies with similar exercises when he said: “The lessons learned during these exercises are exportable to our partners across the region.”
• Away from the exercise, Walla News reported yesterday that Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi paid a secret visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday and met with senior UAE officials. Dermer’s brief involves both relations with the US and aspects of the Iranian issue. Prime Minister Netanyahu had hoped that his first foreign visit since his reappointment as Prime Minister would be to the UAE, but his scheduled trip to Abu Dhabi this month was cancelled.
• US National Security Advisor also Jake Sullivan visited Israel last week. His meetings with Israeli officials included discussion of Iran, but also included conveying the Biden administration’s concerns over Netanyahu’s new government’s prospective policies towards the Palestinians and the maintenance of the status quo in Jerusalem.

Looking ahead: Juniper Oak will conclude later this week.

• Following Sullivan’s visit, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is due to arrive in Israel next week. Netanyahu will then visit the US in February.
• The flurry of diplomatic trips is reflective both of the US’s desire for reassurance over the new government’s plans and its awareness of the need for a new Iran strategy, its efforts at a diplomatic solution having foundered (see BICOM’s recent paper for further information).