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What happened: Nine Palestinians died in clashes between Israeli troops and Palestinian militants during a three-hour IDF operation in the heart of the Jenin Refugee camp on Thursday morning.

• In response, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has suspended security cooperation with Israel. A Palestinian general strike was also announced in the West Bank.
• During the night, six rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israel- the Iron Dome intercepted four, one exploded in an open area and one fell inside the strip. The Israeli Air Force hit rocket-holding sites in the Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza and “one of the most significant” Hamas sites in Northern Gaza.
• According to the IDF, the Jenin raid was launched after intelligence shared by the Shin Bet revealed that an imminent attack on central Israel, involving shooting and explosives, was being planned by the local wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
• Five of the dead have been confirmed as members of the PIJ cell. “This squad was a ticking time bomb. If we didn’t act, they would have,” said an IDF source.
• In an attempt to flush out the wanted men from their hideout, troops used “pressure cooker” tactics- deploying shoulder-launched missiles and other explosives. Troops then came under fire and responded in kind.
• While the IDF is reporting that eight of the nine fatalities were combatants, a 60-year-old civilian woman, Magda Obaid, was also killed, though unclear if by the IDF or Palestinian gunmen.
• Another of the Palestinians killed was named as Izzidin Yassin Salahat, identified by Palestinian media as a member, not of PIJ, but of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, an organisation with ties to Fatah, the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) ruling party. Salahat was also said to be a member of the PA’s security forces which cooperate with Israel in the maintenance of West Bank security.
• No Israeli casualties were sustained in Jenin. IDF vehicles were damaged by PIJ explosives and required towing from the scene, while media clips also appear to show the downing of an IDF surveillance drone.
• Away from Jenin, 11 suspects were arrested across the West Bank in previous raids early Wednesday morning, the IDF revealed, while two other Palestinians died following clashes with Israeli troops in East Jerusalem and the town of a-Ram.

Context: As part of the ongoing “Operation Breakwater”, which last year secured over 3,000 arrests and thwarted over 500 attacks, Israel has this year continued to launch raids into the West Bank.

• January 2^nd saw violent clashes between troops and militants in the village of Kafr-Dan, near Jenin, while January 11^th witnessed another raid in the Balata refugee camp. January 16^th then saw 14-year-old Palestinian Khaled Lutfi Khmour killed during a raid on the Dheisheh refugee camp, south of Bethlehem.
• The latest events bring the total Palestinians killed in 2023 so far to 29, the vast majority classified as combatants.
• 2022 saw the highest number of West Bank fatalities since the height of the Second Intifada in 2004. Over 150 Palestinians were killed- also mostly combatants, according to the IDF.
• December polling by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank showed support for Abbas’s leadership at 23%, with 72% showing broad support for more independent terrorist organisations.
• The influence of PIJ, in particular, has grown, with crucial support from Iran. Having long armed and financed both Hamas and PIJ in Gaza, Iran has turned greater attention to growing the capacity and influence of proxies in the West Bank in the last 12 months.
• Jenin continues to be a locus of conflict and an intense concentration of Palestinian terror. The “Jenin Brigade” has seen members of multiple rival organisations forego sectarian division and collect in a loose affiliation, locally semi-autonomous from their respective organisation’s command structure.
• Regarding Ramallah’s decision to cease cooperation with Israel, “Security coordination with the occupation government no longer exists as of now,” said Deputy PA Prime Minister Nabil Abu Rudeineh, in a statement avoiding explicit mention of the possibility of its future return.
• Operation Breakwater has been partially motivated by lax or ineffectual PA security efforts in any case. In Jenin, for example, security forces have long refrained from conducting security patrols even on the refugee camp’s periphery.
• In Gaza, no group claimed responsibility for the rocket fire, though the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, admitted firing anti-aircraft weapons and ground-to-air missiles at Israeli aircraft. Both Israel and Hamas continue to favour the maintenance of relative de-escalation, with messages to that effect already passed to the mediating Egyptians.

Looking ahead: Egyptian mediation notwithstanding, the scale of the Jenin raid makes further revenge attacks likely. More rocket launches are possible, while the Temple Mount is another potential flashpoint today.

• Israel is almost certain to respond to any such attack. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office released a statement which read: “Netanyahu made it clear that Israel is not looking to escalate, but instructed the security forces to prepare for any scenario in the various arenas to ensure the safety of Israeli citizens.”
• The IDF has raised the military’s state of readiness and a reinforcement of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence is being discussed.
• It remains unclear how the PA’s announcement will be implemented on the ground. It has announced the end of security coordination on several occasions over the last few years without following through on the ground, before formally resuming cooperation following US and Israeli pressure.
• The US criticised the move and will be keen to support de-escalation ahead of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s arrival in Israel on Monday. Blinken will hold talks with Netanyahu and other Israeli officials and is then due to proceed to Ramallah on Tuesday.