What’s happened: Hamas has released a new video of American-Israeli Hersh Goldberg-Polin, held hostage in the Gaza Strip since October 7^th.

• The 23-year-old, kidnapped from the Nova music festival, appears in the video missing his lower left arm. He is known to have sustained injuries when one of the October 7^th terrorists threw a grenade into an area in which he and others were sheltering.
• In the video, he says that he has been held nearly 200 days, indicating that it was made recently.
• Goldberg-Polin’s mother Rachel, urging leaders to negotiate a hostage deal, said “Hersh, if you can hear this, we heard your voice today for the first time in 201 days and, if you can hear us, I am telling you—we are telling you—we love you, stay strong, survive.”
• IDF Spokesperson Hagari said “this psychological terror video is not only a reminder of what Hamas did on October 7th, it is a reminder of how sick this terror group is, terrorising the hostages and their families too.”
• “Until Hamas releases our hostages,” he added, “the IDF will continue to pursue Hamas everywhere in Gaza. We will leave no stone unturned in our efforts to find our hostages.”
• The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement that “Hersh’s cry is the collective cry of all the hostages – their time is rapidly running out. We cannot afford to waste any more time; the hostages must be the top priority. All the hostages must be brought home — those alive to begin the process of rehabilitation, and those murdered for a dignified burial.”
• Meanwhile, preparations for an anticipated operation in the southern Gazan city of Rafah are intensifying. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office said yesterday the operation was “moving ahead”, though gave no timeline, while IDF Chief of Staff Halevi and Shin Bet Director Bar were in Cairo yesterday for meetings with their Egyptian counterparts.
• The IDF has mobilised two reserve brigades for what it calls “defensive and tactical missions in the Gaza Strip.” “The brigades, which have so far operated along the northern border,” said the IDF, “have prepared in recent weeks for operations in the Gaza Strip.” Both are expected to be deployed to the central Gaza Strip, freeing units currently serving there for operations in Rafah.
• The IDF has also continued intensive operations in the northern and central Strip this week.
• In the north, Sgt. First Class (res.) Salm Alkreshat was killed in an operation in Beit Hanoun on Monday, while on Tuesday, four rockets were fired from northern Gaza at the Israeli city of Sderot, in an attack claimed by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
• Over the last day, two terrorists in central Gaza were killed attempting to launch rockets at Israel in one of more than 50 sites targeted by Israeli strikes over the past day. Another strike in Gaza City’s killed a group of Hamas operatives which had opened fire at troops in central Gaza, while a further strike in central Gaza’s Nuseirat killed a Hamas sniper cell. Yesterday, the IDF also struck Hamas launchers located in a humanitarian zone in southern Gaza.

Context: The video of Goldberg-Polin is the first proof of life of a hostage in several months, and is thought to have been made ostensibly as a gesture from Hamas to Qatar, which has brokered hostage release negotiations and has been pressured by the US to facilitate proofs of life, especially for US citizens like Goldberg-Polin.

• The video was sent first to the Israeli and US governments, via Qatar, before then being made public.
• It also functions as a cruel use of psychological warfare. Yediot Ahronot quotes an unnamed Israeli official as saying about the video: “Its purpose is to create domestic pressure in Israel. The messages in the video are directed at Netanyahu and the government. Hamas’s strategy is to sow internal chaos and, if possible, to bring about the government’s dissolution.”
• Hersh’s injury was known soon after the event, when footage of the Nova massacre emerged.
• Hamas kidnapped 253 hostages on October 7^th. It is thought that 133 remain in Gaza, not all of them still alive, with the IDF having confirmed the deaths of 34.
• Halevi and Bar’s meeting with Egyptian counterparts signals Israeli coordination of a likely operation in Rafah with its allies.
• Such an operation can only be conducted following a massive evacuation of over a million civilians, the bulk of whom have fled to the city from other areas of the Strip to escape the fighting.
• Temporary shelters have been set up in other parts of the Strip, at the initiative of Egypt and the UAE and in consultation with Israel.
• UK media yesterday reported satellite images showing five field hospitals and a new “tent city” near Khan Yunis, also in the southern Strip. Israeli media is quoting government sources saying that the Defence Ministry has bought 40,000 tents, each with the capacity to shelter 10 to 12 people.
• Hamas has itself begun to prepare for an incursion into its last stronghold, home to four of its remaining (previously 24) battalions. It has resupplied its fighters there with arms and supplies and has also reportedly increased the number of fighters guarding hostages located in the city.
• Israeli liaison with Egypt is especially significant, given Cairo’s public opposition to an operation it fears could cause thousands of Gazans fleeing Rafah to breach the Gaza-Egypt border.
• The intensification of IDF operations in northern and central Gaza – areas from which Israel largely withdrew several months ago – indicates that the operational presence of Hamas and other terror groups remains there.

Looking ahead: Both the war cabinet and the wider security cabinet are set to meet today to discuss the potential operation, as well as the state of hostage deal talks.

• The Rafah evacuation process could take a further three to four weeks.

What’s happened: On Saturday, the US House of Representatives passed a bill including $17 billion (£13.75 billion) in military aid to Israel. Some $9 billion is also set to be allocated to humanitarian relief in Gaza and other conflict zones.

• $5.2 billion will go toward replenishing and expanding Israel’s missile and rocket defence systems; $3.5 billion to purchasing advanced weapons systems; $1 billion to enhancing weapons production; $4.4 billion for other defence supplies and services; and some $2.4 billion to US operations in the region amid the Gaza war.
• The aid package, which also included $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, had become a hugely divisive political issue in the US, with House Republicans split, many siding against Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson in opposing the bill. In the event, the bill passed 311 to 112, with 101 Republicans voting against.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said the bill “demonstrates strong bipartisan support for Israel and defends Western civilisation. Thank you friends, thank you America!”
• Elsewhere, in an unprecedented move, the US is set to impose sanctions on the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda unit, citing alleged human rights violations against Palestinians in the West Bank. The sanctions will see US military aid blocked from being used to fund Netzah Yehuda.
• Responding on X (formerly Twitter), Netanyahu said “sanctions must not be imposed on the Israel Defence Force… at a time our soldiers are fighting the terrorist monster, the intention of imposing sanctions on an IDF unit is the height of absurdity and a moral low point.”
• National Unity Party Chairman and war cabinet Minister Gantz wrote, “the Netzah Yehuda battalion is an inseparable part of the IDF. It is subject to military law and is responsible for operating in full compliance with international law. The State of Israel has a strong, independent judicial system that evaluates meticulously any claim of a violation or deviation from IDF orders and code of conduct, and will continue to do so.”
• “I have great appreciation for our American friends, but the decision to impose sanctions on an IDF unit and its soldiers sets a dangerous precedent and conveys the wrong message to our shared enemies during war time. I intend on acting to have this decision changed.”
• Opposition leader Lapid said the move was “a mistake,” but that “the source of the problem is not at the military level but at the political level.”

Context: The announcements on aid and sanctions come as more details emerge regarding Israel’s attack on an Iranian air base in Isfahan last week, in retaliation for Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel of April 13^th.

• Israel faced a dilemma on how best to respond to the attack, which included a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles and weaponised UAVs. Its response needed to be strong even to restore deterrence but not so strong as to provoke further Iranian aggression and jeapordise international support.
• A single missile was therefore fired from an Israeli F-15, deployed at an Iranian Air Force base, while included deployment of a Russian S-300 battery which protected the nuclear facility in Natanz.
• The targeted strike sent a clear message to Iran that while its own attack on Israel consisted of over 300 projectiles which caused minimal damage, Israel was able to penetrate Iranian defences and reach a nuclear site area with just one missile.
• Israel not publicly claiming the attack also gave Iran room to “plausibly deny” that the attack took place, thus minimising the risk of an Iranian counter-response.
• Having successfully navigated the issue, there is a hope that Israel and the US can advance their coordination over a potential incursion into Rafah.
• Israel maintains that the achievement of its war aims requires an operation in Hamas’s last Gazan stronghold – home to its remaining four battalions. The US has opposed the operation, citing the severe humanitarian situation in the Strip and the fate of over a million Gazan refugees sheltering in the city.
• Heeding US calls for a non-escalatory response to Iran might well give Israel diplomatic currency to consider an operation in Gaza in coordination with Washington.
• The Netzah Yehuda unit is comprised largely of ultra-Orthodox recruits and has faced scrutiny for a number of incidents involving Palestinians. In December 2022, it was moved out of the West Bank and onto the Syrian border. It is currently fighting on the Gazan front.
• The apparent US sanctions will follow similar measures taken in recent months, and imposed by the UK as well, targeting those identified as violent West Bank settlers.
• This comes amid a recent increase in violence. This morning, three were lightly injured in a car-ramming attacks in Jerusalem.
• Yesterday, three West Bank Palestinians died after what the IDF said were attacks against Israeli soldiers, while over the weekend the IDF continued a counter terror operation in the Tulkarem area. 13 out of 14 Palestinians killed were identified as jihadist fighters and nine Israeli troops injured.
• High tensions remains in the West Bank following the killing and abduction of an Israeli 14-year-old, which precipitated retaliatory attacks by some settlers in the area. Following a manhunt, a suspect was arrested this morning.

Looking ahead: The US aid package will now move to the Senate this week, with lawmakers expected to vote in favour.

• Tonight marks the beginning of Passover, as well as the milestone of 200 days in captivity for the remaining 133 Israeli hostages in Gaza.
• Reports suggest that US pressure on Qatar may lead to Hamas’s external leadership seeking relocation. Adding fuel to these rumours, senior Hamas leaders Ismail Haniya and Khaled Mashal met with Turkish Erdogan on Saturday.

What’s happened: International media reports this morning claim that Israel has attacked an Iranian air force base near the city of Isfahan.

• Some of the reports claim that the attack was launched using missiles, and that the Isfahan site had been used to launch the UAVs used by Iran to attack Israel last Saturday night.
• Israel has offered no official comments, while official Iranian media claims that Iranian air defence systems had intercepted a number of UAVs and denies that there has been a strike on Isfahan. The New York Times, however, cites three Iranian sources confirming that the military base had been struck.
• A US administration official told CNN that Washington had received prior notification of the Israeli attack on Iran. He said that the administration had not expressed an opinion. This is interpreted in Israel as the US neither approving nor trying to prevent such a strike.
• Meanwhile, the US and UK yesterday announced fresh sanctions against Iran, targeting its UAV and ballistic missile industries.
• Announcing the UK’s sanctions at the G7 summit in Capri, UK Foreign Secretary Cameron said “at a time of great tension in the Middle East, Iran’s decision to launch hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel carried with it a serious risk of thousands of civilian casualties and wider escalation for the region. The sanctions announced today alongside the US demonstrate our unequivocal condemnation of Iran’s attack on a sovereign state.”
• The US Treasury Department added 16 individuals and two entities to its sanctions list, while the UK announced it was sanctioning a further 7 individuals and 6 entities “who have enabled Iran to conduct destabilising regional activity, including its direct attack on Israel.”
• According to the government, the new sanctions target:
  • Armed Forces General Staff: directs and coordinates Iran’s armed forces.
  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy: 1 of Iran’s 2 naval forces.
  • The Khatemolanbia Central Headquarters (KCHQ): responsible for operational command and control of Iran’s armed forces.
  • Major General Gholamali Rashid, Commander KCHQ: responsible for operational command and control of Iran’s armed forces, reports directly to the Supreme Leader.
  • Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, Minister of Defence Armed Forces Logistics: Iran’s Defence Minister, responsible for supporting and equipping the Iranian armed forces.
  • Seid Mir Ahmad Nooshin, Aerospace Industries Organisation (AIO) Director and 4 further individuals related to AIO.

Context: For the past week, Israel has insisted it would respond strongly to Iran’s attack, which included over 300 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones – the first time ever that Iran had attacked Israel directly.

• Some 99 percent of the projectiles were thwarted thanks to Israel’s missile defence systems, along with the active support of the US, UK, France, and Jordan. Cooperation from other regional states, including Saudi Arabia, has been widely claimed but not officially confirmed.
• In the week following, Israel’s allies have repeatedly implored Jerusalem to show restraint in its response, to lower the risk of the escalation spilling over into an all-out regional war.
• An attack of the type being reported in Isfahan would likely meet this criteria, allowing Iran “plausible deniability” and minimising, though not precluding, the likelihood of an Iranian counter-strike.
• It would present a clear message to Iran that Israel can breach its defences and potentially reach its nuclear weapons programme sites.
• A key post-October 7^th security priority for Israel has been reaffirming its deterrent capacity. In Gaza; in the north, where Hezbollah has launched daily barrages against Israeli communities; and in the wider context of the whole Iranian “Axis of Resistance”, the need has been to reestablish that attacks on Israel have serious consequences.
• In responding to Iran’s attack, Israel’s dilemma has been to balance demonstrating this deterrent capacity with not alienating the unprecedented coalition which emerged in thwarting the Iranian attack last Saturday: Israel, the US, UK, other European allies, and pragmatic Arab Sunni states also threatened by Iran.
• In attacking Israel directly, Iran altered the ‘rules of the game’ of its conflict with Israel and shifted from its traditional strategy of attacking through its proxy network.
• Thus, while US reports earlier in the week suggested that Israel might respond to Iran through attacks on its proxies, a limited attack on Iranian soil might achieve this balance, while not ignoring the new paradigm initiated by Iran.
• As well as its other military bases, Isfahan is known to house sites devoted to Iran’s nuclear programme, including the underground Natanz enrichment site. CNN quotes Israeli officials confirming that the nuclear programme was not the target of any Israeli strike.
• Yesterday, Ahmad Haghtalab, the IRGC commander in charge of nuclear security, threatened that any attack on Iran’s nuclear programme would be met with a counter-strike on Israel’s own nuclear sites.
• The Isfahan air base is known to host some of Iran’s US-made F-14 Tomcats, which date back to the period before the 1979 revolution.
• The UK has increased sanctions against Iran several times since October 7^th – its total number of sanctioned entities now tops 400 – though continues to stop short of designating the IRGC a terrorist organisation. 154 new sanctions designations were made in 2023.
• Fresh legislation, “Iran (Sanctions) Regulations 2023”, was introduced in December 2023.

Looking ahead: In parallel to calibrating the nature and scale of its response to Iran, in Gaza, the Israeli assessment remains that achieving its war objectives requires an operation in the southern city of Rafah, home to Hamas’s four remaining battalions and over a million refugees

What’s happened: 18 people were wounded, including 13 reservists, after Hezbollah launched anti-tank missiles and drones toward the Israeli village of Arab al-Aramshe yesterday.

• One IDF reservist is in critical condition and four others seriously wounded.
• The drone was an Iranian-made Ababeel-2T drone, which is capable of providing a real-time video feed to its operator and can carry a payload of more than 40 kilograms of explosives.
• The army is investigating why the launches were not intercepted.
• In response, Israeli fighter jets attacked the launch pads as well as a military structure where Hezbollah members were residing in the southern Lebanese village of Ayta ash Shab. Israel also carried out an airstrike against a site belonging to Hezbollah’s air defence unit in northeast Lebanon’s Baalbek, almost 60 miles from the border.
• This morning, Israeli fighter jets attacked military buildings and other Hezbollah infrastructure in the area of Khiam, southern Lebanon. IDF aircraft also fired at two Hezbollah operatives in the area of the village of Kafr Kila. Both the IDF and Hezbollah report the deaths of two Hezbollah operatives in the latter strike.
• Rocket sirens were activated in several communities along the Israel-Lebanon border, including Kfar Yuval, Kfar Giladi and Metula.
• Yesterday’s attacks follow further escalation on Tuesday, when four Golani Brigade soldiers were wounded in a cross-border operation, amid the firing of dozens of rockets at IDF bases, including the Mt. Meron base and a second base that, according to Hizbullah, houses an Iron Dome battery.
• Two Hezbollah armed drones also infiltrated Israeli airspace from Lebanon and exploded near Beit Hillel, slightly wounding three Israelis.
• Two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were also killed in Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon: Ismail Yousef Baz, the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal district, killed in a strike on a car near Tyre; and Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shehoury
• In other news, fallout continues from Iran’s attack against Israel on April 13^th.
• Following UK and German Foreign Ministers Cameron and Baerbock’s visit to Israel yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu told a cabinet meeting that the two gave “all kinds of suggestions and advice”. Netanyahu said that Israel appreciated it, but that Israelis would “make our own decisions, and… do everything necessary to defend itself.”
• While in Israel, Cameron told reporters that while Israel had the right to respond to Iran, the UK hoped it would do so “in a way that is smart as well as tough and also does as little as possible to escalate this conflict.”
• “The real need,” Cameron added, “is to refocus back on Hamas, back on the hostages, back on getting the aid in, back on getting a pause in the conflict in Gaza,”
• In slightly stronger remarks, having first suggested the Europe would act so that “Iran and its proxies such as Hezbollah or the Houthis must not be allowed to add fuel to the fire,” Baerbock said that “everyone must now act prudently and responsibly.”
• “I’m not talking about giving in,” she added. “I’m talking about prudent restraint, which is nothing less than strength. Because Israel has already shown strength with its defensive victory at the weekend.”

Context: Israel’s strike in Baalbeck, where Hezbollah’s Aerial Defence Array is located, is the sixth time Israel has struck Hezbollah positions in the area since 7 October. (For a detailed analysis of recent escalation in the north, see BICOM’s recent paper ‘Challenging the Iranian presence in the north’.)

• Although not responding as Hamas desired in its call for full-scale assault from all members of the “Axis of Resistance” on October 7th, Hezbollah has proceeded with multi-site daily rocket attacks on northern Israel. Analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies claims there have been 4,400 “violent incidents” in the border area since October 8th. This includes, according to the IDF, over 2,800 missiles which have been fired at northern Israel from southern Lebanon and Syria.
• In comparison with previous rounds of fighting with Israel, Hezbollah is increasingly deploying more sophisticated weaponry, including Iranian-produced Almas anti-tank guided missiles with a 10-kilometre range and the shorter range Burkan with its heavy payload. Iranian-produced Hezbollah UAVs have also been used in at least 40 attacks on Israel since October 7th, some fatal.
• Seven Israeli civilians and 12 soldiers have been killed and around 300 fighters on the Lebanese side of the border (mostly Hezbollah, along with some Palestinian militants who operate with its approval). Meanwhile, 80,000 northern Israelis from 28 border communities remain displaced, along with a similar number of southern Lebanese.
• US and French attempts at brokering a sustainable ceasefire on the northern border have so far failed to produce results. In mid-February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel.
• European Union leaders decided yesterday to step up sanctions against Iran. “The European Union will take further restrictive measures against Iran, notably in relation to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missiles,” leaders said in a joint statement.
• An Egyptian source told London-based Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the US agreed to the Israeli plan for a military operation in Rafah in exchange for a limited response against Iran.

Looking ahead: Israel continues to calibrate the nature of its response to the Iranian attacks.

• Its western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.
• Three Israeli sources told ABC News that Israel prepared for and then aborted retaliatory strikes on at least two nights this week. According to the report, the war cabinet was presented with several different options, including attacking Iranian proxies not on Iranian soil, or a potential cyberattack.
• Israel’s Kan public broadcaster reported that the cabinet had already approved a series of possible responses depending on the scope of the Iranian attack, which were slated to be carried out immediately following the Iranian attack but were shelved after PM Netanyahu spoke to President Biden

What’s happened: As Israel continues to weigh the nature of its response to Iran’s unprecedented attack on Saturday night, significant operations were conducted yesterday in both the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon.

Iran: Israel’s western allies continue to urge a restrained response. Prime Minister Sunak yesterday told Prime Minister Netanyahu in a phone call that “further significant escalation will only deepen instability in the region. This is a moment for calm heads to prevail.”

• Foreign Secretary Cameron arrived in Israel today for talks with senior Israeli officials on Israel’s response to the Iranian attack. Speaking to reporters, Cameron said “It’s clear the Israelis are making a decision to act. We hope they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible.”
• Earlier, alongside German Foreign Minister Baerbock, Cameron met with Israeli President Herzog this morning. Herzog thanked the two for “the UK and Germany’s strong stand alongside Israel in the face of the reprehensible attack by Iran. The whole world must work decisively and defiantly against the threat posed by the Iranian regime which is seeking to undermine the stability of the whole region.”
• US Secretary of State Blinken, meanwhile, spoke with Minister Benny Gantz and with the Qatari prime minister. The State Department said that the US did wish to see further escalation.
• US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, yesterday announced fresh US sanctions on Iran. “In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran,” he said, “including its missile and drone program” as well as the IRGC and the defence ministry. “These new sanctions and other measures will continue a steady drumbeat of pressure to contain and degrade Iran’s military capacity and effectiveness and confront the full range of its problematic behaviours… We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions.”
• The US Treasury Department is said to be seeking to enlist international cooperation in limiting Iran’s export of oil and its access to the microelectronics it needs to produce the kind of drones with which it attacked Israel on Saturday.
• Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, meanwhile, yesterday threatened Israel with a “painful response” if it takes the “slightest action” in retaliation. In a call with Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Raisi said “we firmly declare that the slightest action against Iran’s interests will definitely be met with a severe, extensive and painful response.”

In Gaza: More than 40 targets were struck by the Israeli Air Force, including in central Gaza on rocket launchers primed and ready for attacks on Israel.

• Multiple Palestinian gunmen were killed in clashes on the outskirts of the Nuseirat camp, while an airstrike was carried out against a cell operating an armed drone.
• The IDF says other targets hit included underground rocket launch positions, booby-trapped buildings, structures where operatives were gathered, observation posts, underground sites, and other infrastructure.
• Israeli ground forces, meanwhile, have in the past few days returned to parts of northern Gaza from which they had previously withdrawn. Operations in the town of Beit Hanoun are ongoing.
• Israel media reports today claim that the IDF has begun to raise troop readiness ahead of a large-scale operation in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, and in the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip.

In the north: According to Israeli media, two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were killed yesterday in air strikes in southern Lebanon.

• They were named as Ismail Yousef Baz, the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal district, killed in a strike on a car near Tyre; and Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shehoury, the commander of one of the Radwan Force’s rocket and missile units.
• The IDF said Baz “was involved in advancing and planning rocket and anti-tank missile fire at the State of Israel from the area of the coast in Lebanon, and during the war he organized and planned a range of terror attacks against Israel.”

Context: Israel’s western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.

• In weighing its response, therefore, Israel is forced to balance the need to maintain deterrence following an unprecedented Iranian attack consisting of over 300 missiles and UAVs, and protecting the emerging anti-Iranian Israeli-western-Arab alliance which was illustrated during the attack. (For further analysis see yesterday’s BICOM briefing and Israeli Media Summary below.)
• The US has traditionally been reluctant to pursue particularly punitive measures on Iranian oil exports, for fear of angering China.
• Israel withdrew the bulk of its troops from the Gaza Strip ten days ago, retaining the ability to conduct pinpoint strikes in all areas of the Strip when the need arose.
• The operation in Beit Hanoun, together with Israel’s killing of three of the sons of Hamas Political Bureau Director Ismail Haniyeh in an airstrike in the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza a week ago, indicate that despite IDF achievements in the north, the Hamas presence remains.
• On Monday, the US condemned Hamas for being the obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza, having rejected the latest US-brokered hostage deal.
• “There’s a deal on the table that would achieve much of what Hamas claims it wants to achieve, and they have not taken that deal,” US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.
• “The bottom line is that they have rejected it, and if they did accept it, it would allow for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza of at least six weeks, which would benefit the Palestinian people whom they claim to represent. It would also allow us to continue improvements in the delivery of humanitarian assistance. The bottom line is Hamas needs to take that deal, and they need to explain to the world and to the Palestinian people why they aren’t taking it because it is Hamas right now that is the barrier and the obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza.”
• The basic formula for the deal rejected by Hamas is thought to have included Hamas freeing about 40 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel and a limited return of Gazans to the north of the Strip. This would be alongside a temporary ceasefire, during which further talks would be held.
• Israel continues to maintain that for Hamas to be fully defeated as a military force in Gaza, an operation in its last stronghold of Rafah is required. However, an operation there would likely require the removal of the civilian population.
• Due to the sensitivity, any major military operation into Rafah will likely need to be coordinated with the US and Egypt.
• On Monday, the US welcomed the increase in the flow of aid to the Strip. “The aid has increased and quite dramatically in just the last few days,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said. “That’s important, but it has to be sustained.”

What’s happened: Israel and its western allies continue to brace for an anticipated Iranian attack on Israel in response to the assassination of senior IRGC commander Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus last week.

• The IDF and Mossad have approved plans for an attack on Iran in the event that Iran attacks Israel, with the IDF confirming it is “on alert and highly prepared for various scenarios”, as The Wall Street Journal quotes US officials warning that an attack, “possibly on Israeli soil”, could happen as soon as in the next 24-48 hours.
• “We are ready for attack and defence using a variety of capabilities that the IDF has, and also ready with our strategic partners,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said yesterday.
• Visiting an IAF base yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel has “set a simple principle: anyone who hits us, we will hit them. we are prepared to meet the State of Israel’s security needs in both defence and offence.”
• Iran’s IRGC is said to have presented a number of attack options to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while unverified tweets from IRGC-associated X accounts have posted videos simulating strikes on the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev and on Haifa airport.
• US CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla arrived in Israel yesterday. He will meet today with Israeli counterparts to discuss Israeli-US coordination in preparation for an Iranian attack.
• Meanwhile, four of Israel’s principle western allies – the US, UK, France, and Germany – have warned Iran against launching an attack on Israeli territory. UK Foreign Secretary Cameron spoke with his Iranian counterpart, as did the German foreign minister.
• “Today I made clear to Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian,” Cameron wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “that Iran must not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict. I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence. Iran should instead work to de-escalate and prevent further attacks.”
• US Secretary of State Blinken, meanwhile, has spoken with Chinese, Turkish, Saudi and European counterparts, “to make clear that escalation is not in anyone’s interest and that countries should urge Iran not to escalate.”
• Israeli Defence Minister Gallant spoke with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin last night – their second conversation in less than a week. Austin reiterated President Biden’s message in public comments made earlier this week – of  “ironclad US support for Israel’s defence in the face of growing threats from Iran and its regional proxies.”
• Gallant’s office said he “emphasised that Israel will not accept an Iranian attack on Israeli territory… Gallant told Secretary Austin that he is committed to the security of the citizens of Israel, and therefore a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory will require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran.”
• Israel’s diplomatic missions overseas remain on the highest state of alert, with some of them closed and their staff instructed to work from home. The US, meanwhile, has instructed staff at its Israeli embassy not to travel beyond the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Beersheba areas.
• Israel’s Home Front Command, responsible for civilian defence, has made no changes to their instructions and guidelines. Despite this, many Israelis are stocking up on dry goods, bottled water, and even generators in some cases. As schoolchildren break up ahead of the Passover holiday, there have been numerous accounts of pupils being told to take their books home with them in case they need to move to remote learning after the holiday as a result of an Iranian escalation.

Context: The unified approach of Israel’s allies, and their reaffirmed commitment to Israel’s security in the face of the Iranian threat, indicates that recent disagreements over the conduct of Israel’s war in Gaza have not altered the calculus when it comes to Iran.

• Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin all recognise that the Iranian threat is against western interests and values as well as Israel. As well as the deepening immediate strategic cooperation, Kurill’s visit is intended as a clear warning to Tehran that the US and Israel are in close coordination.
• The western interest is also in preventing an Iranian response and the subsequent Israeli reaction from spiralling to an all-out regional war.
• Iran is thought to have delivered a message to the US, conveyed by its Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian during a visit to Oman last weekend, that its response will seek to avoid dramatic escalation of this kind.
• However, seasoned Israeli commentators are warning that the current crisis is likely to see the end of a nearly four-decade status quo, in which Israeli-Iranian hostilities are played out not in the direct exchange of fire but through Iran’s regional proxies.
• This would represent a seismic paradigm shift in long-term Israel policy and in strategic thinking post-October 7^th. Since hostilities with Hezbollah intensified, the Israeli approach has been to degrade the Iranian proxy’s aerial capability and its elite Radwan Force, generally in the border area, but to keep the conflict contained and short of all-out war. Similarly, Israel has not struck decisively at the Yemeni Houthis, despite the group (another Iranian proxy) having launched repeated attacks directed at Israeli soil and airspace.
• On the specifics of an anticipated Iranian attack, Tehran has a range of options, though the likeliest scenario would see a multi-front attack using UAVs and cruise missiles, launched either from Iranian soil or via proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
• Israeli reports indicate that Austin also complained to Gallant that the US was not given advanced warning of the attack which killed Zahedi. Israel has not official confirmed responsibility for the attack, though the IDF spokesperson did say that the building hit was not an embassy but “a military building of Quds forces disguised as a civilian building.”
• A report on Israel’s Channel 12, meanwhile, has alleged that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar is delaying his formal response to the latest US-brokered hostage proposal in the hope of an Iranian attack on Israel.
• Along with preparation for a direct Iranian threat, the northern border remains a likely site of escalation. New data from the Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot has revealed the scale of Hezbollah aggression post-October 7^th. It has fired a total of 3,100 rockets and mortar shells at northern Israel since that day. By comparison, a total of 4,400 were fired during the entire Second Lebanon War. Some 240 “heavy bombs” have been fired, along with at least 700 anti-tank missiles, and at least 33 explosive UAVs, 55 sniper attempts, and seven attempts at infiltrating Israeli territory.
• In response, Israel has conducted 1,400 air strikes and 3,300 ground attacks, destroying hundreds of weapons stores and military installations. In terms of casualties, says Yediot Ahronot, 14 IDF soldiers and eight Israeli civilians have been killed. 280 Hezbollah fighters have been killed, along with 70 non-Hezbollah Palestinian fighters.