BICOM

What’s happening: The Knesset is debating the grounds of reasonability bill, ahead of an expected vote on the second and third readings of the bill later today.

• In parallel, negotiations are continuing to reach a compromise – crucially, an agreement on alternative wording.
• President Herzog returned from the US yesterday and went immediately to the hospital to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu – recovering from surgery having been fitted with a pacemaker – to encourage a compromise.
• Over the weekend, for the 28^th consecutive week, there were massive anti-government protests across the country. They were considered the largest so far, with an estimated 550,000 Israelis protesting. This included thousands of people who completed a four-day march from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and pitched a tent city in a central Jerusalem park.
• This morning, protests have continued outside the Knesset, with demonstrators blocking all access routes to parliament.
• Last night also saw a large pro-government counter demonstration in Tel Aviv. With Education Minister Yoav Kisch (himself a former pilot) telling the crowd, “I want to tell the pilots that refusal is the gnawing away at the principle of democracy. Don’t cut the rope. We’re not talking about a dictatorship. There is no need to go for the nuclear option… we are going to pass this legislation. If we cave to violence and refusal, no government will be able to function.”
• The Business Forum, which includes about 150 companies, has decided that all member businesses will go on strike today except those which are considered essential services (like banks).

The security context: At the highest level of concern are the security ramifications if the legislation is passed, both in terms of the unity of the army and its preparedness for combat.

• On Friday, 1,194 Air Force reservists announced they would no longer serve if the bill is passed.
• The Brothers and Sisters in Arms protest organisation announced that 10,000 reservists would not report for reserve duty if the grounds of reasonability bill were to be passed into law.
• Also over the weekend, around 100 very senior retired security officials wrote to the prime minister, saying, “The legislative process violates the social contract that has existed now for 75 years between Israeli governments and the thousands of commanders and soldiers in the reserves from the ground, air, sea and intelligence forces who have volunteered for many years in the reserves to defend the democratic State of Israel, and who have now announced, with a broken heart, that they are suspending their voluntary service.”
• The letter was signed by three former IDF chiefs of staff—Ehud Barak, Moshe Yaalon and Dan Halutz; five former Mossad directors—Nahum Admoni, Efraim Halevy, Shabtai Shavit, Danny Yatom and Tamir Pardo; three former Shin Bet directors—Carmi Gillon, Yuval Diskin and Nadav Argaman.
• In addition, the most recently retired head of Mossad Yossi Cohen (considered to be close to Netanyahu and in the past named by him as a potential successor) also shared his opinion, writing in Yediot Ahronot yesterday, “I now discern that the debate and the disagreement, even if holding them now is right and justified, are affecting security… I emphatically call on all the people who serve in the State of Israel in all of its security agencies in the reserves and as volunteers to keep the debate outside the IDF. Presently, with the Iranian threat hovering over us on several fronts, we must ensure that Israel’s security fortitude is unimpaired.”
• He therefore concluded, “I hereby call to halt the legislation and immediately and urgently to start a dialogue among the different groups, groups that represent different views, with the goal of reaching that same national consensus that throughout all the years of the State of Israel’s existence, served as its guiding light.”
• MK Gadi Eisenkot of the National Unity Party (and former IDF Chief of Staff) told Army Radio, “The likelihood of war in the north has increased a great deal in the last few months, relative to what it was in the last 15 years. The second thing is the cohesion and mutual responsibility of Israeli society and the IDF’s wholeness. It would be folly to pass this bill in this way. It will produce a deep rift in Israeli society.”
• The IDF Chief of Staff issued a statement yesterday, “Service in the IDF is both a duty and a great privilege, whether it be in active duty and in the reserve forces. If we don’t have a strong and united defence force, if Israel’s best do not serve in the IDF, we will no longer be able to exist as a country in the region.”
• “Therefore, no service members have the right to say that they will no longer serve, nor do they have the right to not report for duty or refuse an order. I call on all reservists, even in these complex days, to separate civil protests from reporting for duty to the security services. The calls to not report for duty harm the IDF and its readiness.”
• Defence Minister Gallant has called for the vote to be postponed and extend the summer session to allow extra time to reach a compromise.

Possible compromise?  The president presented a bridging proposal that reduced the grounds of reasonability, which could be accepted by both sides.

• One suggested component could be allowing the Supreme Court to strike down government decisions citing “extreme lack of reasonability,” but only by a full panel of 15 Supreme Court justices and only by a special majority of two thirds.
• Another compromise proposal, initiated by Histadrut (Labour Union) Chairman Arnon Bar-David, suggested scaling back the grounds of reasonability in the way that would prevent Supreme Court justices from striking down government decisions regarding ministerial appointments. All other ministerial decisions would continue to be subject to judicial review, including by means of the grounds of reasonability.
• Time is running out to see if a compromise will be accepted, but the negotiators are also discussing what comes next. The opposition are demanding all other aspects of judicial reform be frozen for 15 months, with the Likud only agreeing to a three month pause.

Looking ahead: The last chances for change in the wording of the bill will be this afternoon when the Knesset votes on the opposition’s objections.  At that point the coalition can decide to vote in favour of some of the objections that would moderate the wording of the bill.

• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari warned that if reservists won’t report for duty, “the IDF’s readiness over time will be damaged, and this could be major damage.”