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What happened: Public protests have persisted ahead of the Knesset voting to cancel the Supreme Court’s use of reasonability.

• There were protests last night across the county, including temporarily blocking traffic on the Ayalon, the main Tel Aviv motorway. Overall, the police arrested fourteen people.
• Earlier in the evening Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation and called for unity. “We all want a Jewish and democratic state,” he said. “We all want a strong IDF and we all understand that we only have one state.”
• He appealed for calm, offering reassurances that “Israel will continue to be a democratic state. It will continue to be a liberal state. It will not become a state governed by Jewish religious law and it will safeguard everyone’s individual rights.”
• However, he warned, “What does endanger democracy, is refusal to serve. Refusal to serve endangers the security of us all, of every citizen of Israel… Whoever drags the IDF into political arguments, whoever incites to refusal to serve, needs to know that refusal to serve by one side will certainly lead to refusal to serve by the other.”
• He concluded by suggesting efforts are still underway to reach an agreement, “but if they do not, the door of the coalition will always be open, to you, citizens of Israel, and to the opposition.”
• In response, Leader of the Opposition Lapid accused the prime minister of “tearing the country apart instead of bringing it together.” He added, “we have been calling on Netanyahu for three weeks to stop the legislation, return to the President’s Residence, and reach broad consensus.”
• Earlier yesterday, former Director of the Shin Bet, Nadav Argaman added his support for those threatening not to serve in the security forces if the legislation passes.
• The issue has become most acute after the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee completed voting down the opposition’s 27,000+ amendments to the reasonability bill, which is now ready for the final votes in the chamber.

Context: The highest level of concern currently relates to the divides within the security establishment and the refusal of some to continue to serve.

• Earlier in the week 160 senior Air Force officers wrote a letter stating they would no longer volunteer to serve, while other elite units have issued similar statements.
• The current assessment is that this has not reached a critical mass, but the dynamics could change if the legislation passes.
• Argaman’s comments are the latest to chime with multiple very senior former officials.
• President Herzog has called to keep politics out of the military, and that failure to report for reserve duty should be “beyond the pale.”
• Netanyahu alluded to the efforts being made by his most trusted adviser, Minister Dermer, to find the language to soften the bill and reach a compromise, but time is running out.
• Last time the legislation reached the final stages, in March, Defence Minister Gallant was fired (and later reappointed) after warning that the proposed legislation presented a security threat to the country. The spontaneous mass protests that followed succeeded in freezing other aspects of the proposed reform.
• This time he is not expected to resign but could, along with the chiefs of the security services, present a united assessment to the prime minister that the legislation presents a danger to the cohesiveness of the military.

Explaining reasonability: The court can currently cite ‘reasonability’ to cancel government and administrative decisions which it considers ‘unreasonable’. This is the case even if the decision does not violate a specific law or contradict other administrative rulings.

• Supporters of the government’s measure believe that it gives too broad a scope to the judicial branch to intervene in decisions made by elected officials, and argue that the court has been too active in its invocation of the principle.
• Critics argue that completely cancelling this judicial tool would lead to a situation of almost no external restraints on the exercise of government power and facilitates further concentration of power in the hands of the executive.
• During compromise talks at the President’s Residence, President Herzog reportedly proposed curtailing the application of reasonability as part of a comprehensive judicial reform package. However, he did not propose to completely cancel it as per the current legislation, nor as a standalone measure as is currently the case.

Looking ahead: The protests are expected to peak this Saturday evening in Jerusalem, with the march that set off from Tel Aviv three days ago. Large protests are anticipated across the country for what will be the 29th consecutive weekend.

• The second and third readings of the grounds of reasonability bill are expected to be brought to the Knesset on Sunday, with the final vote anticipated on Monday afternoon.
• PM Netanyahu has tried to offer reassures that during the Knesset’s summer recess he will work to reach a consensus on the other aspects of judicial reform. However, some of his coalition partners remain committed to further unilateral changes.