BICOM

What happened: Israel and Lebanon have reached an agreement after the Lebanese appeared to drop their reservations from last week.

• Last night US President Biden congratulated Prime Minister Lapid telling him, “You are making history.”
• Earlier yesterday, PM Lapid confirmed that Israel received a draft agreement “that meets all of its security, economic, and legal demands.”
• President Aoun of Lebanon, came out with a similar statement confirming, “Lebanon is satisfied with the final version of the agreement. Our demands have been met.”
• Last night Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah also struck a conciliatory tone in a live televised speech he said,  “If the president announces that Lebanon’s official position supports the agreement, then, for us things are settled.” He went on to say, “Tonight we will neither threaten nor make promises, tonight we are calm and without slogans, tonight is about joy, and I was careful in every word I say so that the enemy does not benefit from any word.”
• Defence Minister Gantz, who has long represented the security establishments support for a deal commented yesterday saying, “I commend the announcement by the Lebanese President, accepting the agreement. The State of Israel is interested in having a stable and prosperous Lebanese neighbour. The agreement in discussion is just and positive for both sides.”
• Minister Gantz added: “We will continue protecting our security interests in any scenario and ensuring the security of the citizens of Israel. We will ensure that the agreement also respects the economic rights of the State of Israel and we will present the agreement to the Israeli public in a transparent and clear manner in accordance with the law.”

The agreement:  From Israel’s security perspective the most important component was the first three miles closest to the coastline, referred to as the “line of buoys.”  This was unilaterally marked by Israel after their withdrawal from the security zone in 2000.  It marked the point to which the Israeli navy operated unilaterally.  It also ensures that no part of Israel’s coastline can be directly seen / targeted from Lebanon.

• The “line of buoys” will serve as the status quo, and there will be no demands to adjust the line unless another agreement is reached in future between the sides.
• After the buoys, the maritime line will be based on the Lebanese position of Line 23. Placing all of the contested gas field of Kana within the Lebanese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
• Israel will receive compensation for lost revenue from the Kana reservoir with cooperation for the French TotalEnergies corporation.
• Israel will also have an agreement with the company that Lebanon cannot develop the site without Israeli approval.
• In addition to the text of the agreement, Israel will also receive a guarantor’s letter from the US President which will commit the US to preserving Israel’s security and economic rights in the event that Hezbollah decide to challenge the agreement in the future.

Context: Supporters of the deal, highlight that this is a historic agreement, the first formal understanding ever reached between Israel and Lebanon.

• It is hoped the agreement brings new regional strategic stability, allowing Lebanon to build its own gas platform, adjacent to the Israeli one on the other side of the border.
• Once Lebanon can begin their own gas production, they will be less reliant on Iran for their energy needs.
• The deal coincides with Energean testing the Karish platform, that will soon be operational.  Hezbollah had previously threatened that they would attack if Israel began pumping gas before a deal was struck.

• Critics of the deal, led by leader of the Opposition Benjamin Netanyahu, claim with Israel has sold out to Hezbollah threats and were overly generous in giving up their competing claim for the Kara gas field, that overlaps the contested area and partially into Israel’s EEZ. 

Political context: The criticism is compounded by the deal being reached by an interim government less that 3 weeks before an election.            

• The Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara has advised that the agreement be ratified in a Knesset vote. However PM Lapid prefers the cabinet approve the deal and the Knesset debate the deal, but without a vote (as the interim government does not have a majority in the Knesset).
• In Lebanon, President Aoun’s tenure in office also ends at the end of the month and all parties were keen to finalise a deal before his term expires.

Looking ahead: The security cabinet are meeting this morning to discuss the agreement. This afternoon there will be a special cabinet meeting.

• Once it meets with cabinet approval, the Knesset is expected to be convened this evening.
• The deal could be challenged in the courts, at which point the Attorney General is expected to support the government.
• The Karish rig is expected to be operational and begin pumping gas soon, while it may take several years to begin extraction from Kara on the Lebanese side.

For further analysis on this, listen to our recent podcast with Orna Mizrahi of the INSS on the Israel-Lebanon maritime border.