BICOM

What happened: The Lebanese government have suggested a series of amendments that place the deal in jeopardy.

• Earlier this week, the US presented both Israel and Lebanon with what they thought (and hoped) was a final text to resolve the contested maritime border and reach recognition over each country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
• Although none of the details have formally been published, Lebanese media has suggested that Lebanon presented several reservations to the text:
  • Rejection of the demarcation adjacent to the coastline, referred to as the three mile “line of buoys”.  This was considered Israel’s top security condition.
  • Opposition to any mention of the land border.
  • Refusing any Israeli veto to start drilling by French company TotalEnergies SE in the Kara field that would be recognised as inside Lebanon’s EEZ.
  • Rejection of any financial compensation that Israel would receive for relinquishing their claim to the disputed area.
  • Refusal to participate in any joint signing ceremony, that was anticipated to take place at Nakura, in southern Lebanon, close to the border.
• Yesterday afternoon Prime Minister Lapid convened the security cabinet to discuss the deal, but even  prior to the meeting a government source responded to the Lebanese reservations saying on behalf of the PM that, ”Israel will not compromise in any way on its security and economic interests, even if that means that there will be no agreement in the near future.”
• The source added, “If Hezbollah or anyone else tries to hit the Karish gas platform or to threaten us, the negotiations on the maritime border will cease immediately, and Hassan Nasrallah will have to explain to the citizens of Lebanon why they have no gas rig and no economic future.”
• Defence Minister Benny Gantz instructed the IDF to prepare for a possible escalation with Hezbollah.

Context: Israel and Lebanon have no formal relations and therefore any deal would be considered a significant diplomatic breakthrough.

• Hezbollah leader Nasrallah has been threatening Israel since the summer that if the extraction of oil and gas from Karish begins in before Lebanon obtains its right, “we would be heading to a problem.”
• The “line of buoys” was unilaterally marked by Israel after their withdrawal from the security zone in 2000.  It marked the point to which the Israeli navy operated unilaterally.  It also ensures that no part of Israel’s coastline can be directly seen / targeted from Lebanon.
• The Israeli government has come under internal criticism, particularly from Leader of the Opposition and Likud leader Netanyahu, claiming the government has conceded too much to Lebanon in the agreement.
• The security cabinet did discuss the details yesterday, but did not vote on the text, due to the Lebanese objections.
• If the sides reach an understanding, it is legally unclear whether a security cabinet vote is sufficient or if the deal must also pass a Knesset vote.  This would be a political challenge, given the governments minority status and proximity to the election.
• The IDF is already in a heightened state of alert, this includes ariel detection systems, in case Hezbollah again decides to launch drones towards the Karish gas platform as they did twice in July.
• For further details see our briefing from Wednesday. 

Looking ahead: The political timeline in both countries leaves little time to resolve the issues, before the term of the current Lebanese President Aoun expires at the end of the month.  Similarly the Israeli election will be held on November 1.

• Israel has insisted that the drilling in the Karish gas field is not dependent on this deal as it falls entirely in Israel’s EEZ.  If no deal is reached, Israel will need to decide when it begins the pumping of gas from Karish, cognisant of Hezbollah’s threats.
• The security cabinet yesterday authorised Prime Minister Lapid, Defence Minister Gantz, and Alternate Prime Minister Bennett to make decisions in the event that tensions escalate on the northern border.

For further analysis on this, listen to our recent podcast with Orna Mizrahi of the INSS on the Israel-Lebanon maritime border.