What happened: The IDF has advanced another stage in its war against Hamas, expanding its ground activity further into the northern Gaza Strip.

• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that “The IDF soldiers completed the encirclement of Gaza City, the hub of the Hamas terrorist group.”
• He added that the troops have “been eliminating terrorists in face-to-face battles, and everywhere where there is combat, even if it’s hard, the IDF and its soldiers have the upper hand. We are constantly working and aiming fire from the air and sea.”
• The IDF said that around 130 Hamas terrorists were killed in gun battles Thursday afternoon and early evening.
• This morning, the IDF said it has killed the commander of Hamas’s Sabra-Tel al-Hawa battalion, Mustafa Dalloul, in an overnight airstrike.
• Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel possessed advanced technology to destroy Hamas’s tunnels. “We have unique solutions to get to all the tunnels and dismantle them from underground. We’re ready to do so. The terrorists will have two choices: they can die in the tunnels or on the surface from our troops’ gunfire, or they can surrender unconditionally. There is no third option.”
• Four soldiers were killed fighting in the Gaza Strip yesterday, bringing the death toll since Israel began its ground offensive against Hamas to 23.
• Missile barrages were fired yesterday setting sirens off in Rishon Lezion, Lod, Ramle, Rosh Ha’ayin and Beersheva. No further rocket fire on Israel has been reported since 9.00pm last night.
• The US is reportedly flying drones over Gaza to help gather intelligence on the locations of hostages.
• As Israel comes under increasing international pressure for a humanitarian pause, Hagari said “the term ‘ceasefire’ is not at all on the table at the moment.”
• Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said that Israel would allow fuel to enter Gaza via the Rafah crossing should it determine that hospitals have run out. “We check the situation in the Strip every day. For over a week, they tell us that the fuel in the hospitals will run out, and it hasn’t. We’ll see when that day comes. Fuel will be transferred, with oversight, to the hospitals, and we will do everything to ensure that it doesn’t reach Hamas infrastructure and won’t serve [Hamas’s] war aims.”
• In the north, last night the military attacked Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanese territory in retaliation for attack on Israel in which two soldiers were injured in the Mount Dov area on the Lebanon border.
• Separately, an Israeli tank shelled a Hezbollah anti-tank guided squad in southern Lebanon overnight.
• IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said that the army was well prepared in every sector. “We are employing less than half the Air Force’s power in the Gaza Strip. Most of its strength is prepared and ready, with bombs attached to the wings, to depart and attack in other sectors as well as soon as it’s needed,”
• In the West Bank, Palestinian news agency Wafa reported that seven Palestinians were killed overnight by Israeli army fire in Jenin and the al-Fawwar refugee camp near Hebron.

Context: Pressure is building on Israel to agree to a temporary humanitarian truce in Gaza to enable a supply of aid and to evacuate the civilian population as well as to potentially facilitate an exchange deal involving the hostages.

• Yesterday, the New York Times wrote that Secretary of State Blinken will pressure Israel to agree to short lulls to enable the safe passage of humanitarian aid and for the hostages’ release. White House sources said that Blinken will relay this message to Netanyahu and other officials.
• However, in remarks delivered on a trip to London, US Vice-President Harris said “we are going to continue to stand with Israel’s right to defend itself,” and that “we are not going to create any conditions on the support that we are giving Israel…”
• The UAE is also trying to make intense efforts to achieve a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Noura al Kaabi said at a Abu Dhabi conference “As we continue working to stop this war we cannot ignore the wider context and the necessity to turn down the regional temperature that is approaching a boiling point.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly considering accepting the US demand for a temporary cease-fire, but Israeli officials said that it would depend on the circumstances.
• NBC reported yesterday that American and Israeli officials believe that Hamas has more than 750,000 litres of fuel, which it is holding onto to use to fire rockets and operate generators in the tunnels. Last week the IDF released images last week of half a million liters of diesel it said the terror group was holding in the Strip.
• While the assessment remains that Hezbollah does not currently seek all out war with Israel, the military and security establishments are proceeding with caution.

Looking ahead: Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is giving a speech this afternoon as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken lands in Israel.

• In clashes on the northern border, more than 60 Hezbollah terrorists have been killed. The commander of the Iranian Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, the successor to Qassem Soleimani, has been in Beirut since October 8 to potentially coordinate a wider war with Israel.
• Blinken landed in Israel today, his third visit since October 7. He is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog and to attend a meeting of the war cabinet. Before departing, Blinken said Washington is focused on the two-state solution.

Gaza Strip: The IDF announced nine soldiers were killed fighting Hamas in the northern Gaza Strip yesterday.

• Seven of the soldiers served in the Givati Infantry Brigade and were killed when their armoured personal carrier (APC) was struck by an anti-tank missile.
• The other two were part of the 7th Brigade and were killed when their tank drove over an explosive device.An additional six soldiers were wounded in the two incidents, three of whom are in serious condition.
• The IDF continued its incursion into northern Gaza, taking control of the Hamas HQ in Jabalya.
• Airstrikes on the Hamas tunnels brought down buildings, and the IDF confirmed the death of the local Hamas commander, Ibrahim Biyari, who was one of the leaders of the Nukkba unit that perpetrated the October 7 massacre. An estimated 50 Hamas fighters were also killed.
• The IDF declared that “underground terror infrastructure embedded beneath the buildings, used by the terrorists, also collapsed after the strike.”
• IDF Spokesperson Hagari described the fighting as, “face-to-face battles, with our having the upper hand, we seized control of a Hamas stronghold, a stronghold with underground infrastructure, with equipment, thanks to sensitive intelligence that we collected.”
• In concert with the ground incursion, the Israeli Airforce is continuing to strike Hamas targets from the air, including operational command centres and Hamas terrorist cells. Dozens more terrorists were killed in air strikes.

Attacks from Yemen: Yesterday, the Iranian backed Houthis declared war on Israel and sent two more waves of attack.

• On Tuesday morning, the IDF confirmed the first operational interception by the “Arrow” Aerial Defence System since the beginning of the war, when they downed a surface-to-surface missile over the Red Sea.
• On Tuesday evening, Israel’s air defence systems again intercepted a missile launched from Yemen over the Red Sea. No air raid sirens were sounded, but Eilat residents heard the explosion. The Houthi military confirmed they fired three missiles.
• There have now been four waves of attack from Yemen. As a result, the Israeli navy has reinforced its presence in the Red Sea with missile boats.
• So far, the Houthi missiles and drones and have been intercepted either by the US navy or Israel, and in one incident by Saudi Arabia. One missile landed inside Egypt in Taba, others in the sea.
• Yemen is 1600km from Israel, so there is time to track their missiles and intercept them.
• Israel is considering at what point they will need to respond by attacking Houthi targets inside Yemen, but for now the focus remains on Gaza and the north.

Context: Israel’s ground incursion began on Friday night by entering Gaza at two points. one in the north-east corner and the second at a midpoint of the Gaza Strip.

• The tactical approach suggests the IDF is bisecting the strip, encouraging civilians to leave for the southern Gaza Strip, whilst the miliary advances towards Gaza City, where Hamas HQ is thought to be located in a vast underground labyrinth.
• The IDF announced, “Since the beginning of the war, the IDF has struck over 11,000 targets belonging to terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip.”
• 11 IDF soldiers have so far been killed fighting inside Gaza. Israeli society is sensitive to these losses, but for now understands the necessity of the ground incursion.
• On the Palestinian side, the Hamas controlled Health Ministry says over 8,500 Gazans have been killed. At this point the IDF has not released any data, so the number of combatants and civilians killed is unclear.
• Israel has reassured allies that it is operating within the rules of warfare, is only aiming at Hamas targets, and seeks to avoid civilian deaths as much as possible.
• Yesterday, Prime Minister Sunak spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu. According to the Downing Street statement, “The Prime Minister reiterated the UK’s resolute backing for Israel’s right to defend itself against terrorism, while emphasising the importance of taking all possible measures to minimise civilian casualties.”
• President Herzog told the BBC last night that he regretted the loss of Palestinian civilian life but explained that this was self-defence in response to a murderous terrorist attack.
• Despite the aerial attacks, Hamas continues to fire rockets into Israel, now totaling over 8,500 launches.
• Hezbollah has continued low intensity attacks along the Lebanese border, whilst the IDF continues to strike at cells and the sources of fire.

Looking ahead: Following international pressure, Hamas has now agreed to allow foreign and dual nationals inside Gaza to leave via Rafah crossing into Egypt.

• Egypt is also expected to allow in a limited number of injured Palestinians for treatment in a field hospital that it is setting up on the Egyptian side of the border.
• Later this week, US Secretary of State Blinken will return to Israel. He is expected to encourage Israel to increase humanitarian aid, including fuel.

Photo credit: Shin Bet

Hostages: In the course of the ground operation inside Gaza, the IDF and the Shin Bet Security Service were able to successfully rescue a 19-year-old female IDF soldier.

• Private Ori Megidish was rescued on Sunday night, with the announcement only made yesterday afternoon after she had been debriefed and returned to her family.
• Private Megidish was captured by Hamas when her base at Nahal OZ was overrun on the morning of October 7.
• According to the IDF, she was held by Hamas on her own, without any other hostages.
• Earlier yesterday afternoon, Hamas released a video recording of three Israeli women it is holding hostage. The hostages pleaded for Israeli leaders to agree to a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange.
• Israeli media overwhelmingly chose to show a still image, but not broadcast the recording as it is perceived as part of the Hamas’s manipulative psychological warfare.
• Nevertheless, it was at least the first proof that these three captives were alive.
• Israeli analysts have interpreted the released footage as an indication that Hamas is feeling the pressure following IDF advances on the ground.
• Also yesterday, the IDF confirmed that DNA tests on part of skull belonged to Shani Louk, a 23-year-old German-Israeli whose captured lifeless body was identified on the back of a Hamas truck entering Gaza on October 7.

Ground incursion: Israel has continued its advances deeper inside northern Gaza.

• Palestinian sources released footage claiming Israeli tanks had reached the Salah al-Din road, about three kilometres deep into the Strip and one of two main north-south routes; the second being the coastal road.
• The IDF confirmed it “continues with its coordinated ground, air, and sea operations in the Gaza Strip… numerous Hamas terrorists have been killed; hundreds of additional military targets were struck.”
• “Over the last day, combined IDF combat forces struck approximately 300 targets, including anti-tank missile and rocket launch posts below shafts, as well as military compounds inside underground tunnels.”
• The IDF also revealed it killed five prominent Hamas operatives:
  • Jamil Baba, commander of Hamas’s naval forces in its Central Brigade.
  • Muhammad Safadi, commander of the anti-tank missile unit in the Tuffah Battalion.
  • Muwaman Hijazi, a prominent operative in Hamas’s anti-tank missile unit.
  • Muhammad Awdallah, a senior operative in Hamas’s production department.
  • Nasim Abu Ajina, commander of Hamas’s Bet Lahia battalion (who was involved in the attack on Netiv Ha’asara).
• In parallel, Hamas continues to fire rockets towards Israel, mostly short-range, but also towards the centre and Jerusalem. Overall, close to 8,000 rockets have been fired, with over 550 falling short inside Gaza.

In the north: Hezbollah continues to attack along the Lebanese border area.

• According to the IDF, attacks included:
  • Mortar shells toward Rosh Hanikra.
  • Two rocket landed in open areas near Moshav Elkosh
  • Three anti-tank missiles were fired towards Biranit. No injuries were reported.
• In all these instances, the IDF returned fire to the source and later attacked additional Hezbollah targets.

Context: The successful rescue mission was greeted as the first piece of positive news in Israel since the initial Hamas attack.

• It restored some belief that Israel can act with creativity and daring, with the hope for more results like this in the future.
• For that reason, the details of the rescue mission have not been publicised.
• This was the first rescue after Hamas released two pairs of female hostages.
• The latest assessment is that another 240 hostages remain inside Gaza, 30 of whom are babies and children under 16 years old.
• The successful release of the soldier through a military operation is a blow to Hamas narrative that only a prisoner exchange will bring about their release.
• In parallel, it was revealed that head of the Mossad Barnea visited Qatar over the weekend to explore the possibility of a deal to release more of the captives, possibly in return for expanded humanitarian aid or even fuel. However, it appears his mission was unsuccessful.
• Families of the kidnapped continue to demand the Red Cross and doctors be given access to the hostages.
• In a further sign of the widening regional dimensions of this conflict, it was reported this morning that IDF aerial defence forces detected and shot down a drone that tried to infiltrate Israeli airspace in the Eilat area. This appears to be the third time that Houthi factions in Yemen, supported by Iran, have launched rockets or UAVs towards Israel.

Looking ahead: Israel is expected to continue its ground incursion towards Gaza City, to target Hamas military infrastructure and increase the pressure on Hamas to release more hostages.

• For now Israel has the backing of international partners to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities. In order to extend international legitimacy Israel will need to ensure that medicine, food and water continues to enter in coordination with Egypt and the US.

What happened: US President Joe Biden spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Egyptian President el-Sissi yesterday.

• National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had previously said on CNN that Biden would reiterate to Netanyahu that Israel had a responsibility to protect the civilian population of Gaza and “should be taking every possible means available to them” to distinguish between Hamas and civilians.
• Later, on ABC’s This Week programme, he said Hamas “is hiding behind the civilian population, which puts an added burden on Israel to differentiate between the terrorists and innocent civilians, but it doesn’t lessen their responsibility under international humanitarian law and the laws of war to do all in their power to protect the civilian population.”
• The official US readout of the Biden-el-Sissi conversation says Biden “expressed his appreciation for Egypt’s leading role in efforts to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance to the civilian population of Gaza… The two leaders committed to the significant acceleration and increase of assistance flowing into Gaza beginning today and then continuously.”
• “They also discussed the importance of protecting civilian lives, respect for international humanitarian law and ensuring that Palestinians in Gaza are not displaced to Egypt or any other nation.”
• Britain Prime Minister Sunak and France President Macron spoke by telephone and “agreed to work together on efforts both to get crucial food, fuel, water and medicine to those who need it, and to get foreign nationals out,” a Downing Street spokesperson said. They also stressed “the importance of getting urgent humanitarian support.”
• The two also “agreed that it was important not to lose sight of the long-term future of the region and, in particular, the need for a two-state solution.”
• Britain’s Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters said that the UK needs Israel to win the war with Hamas in Gaza. In an interview with Israeli Army Radio he said “Hamas must not remain in control in the Gaza Strip,” adding that “Israel must adhere to the laws of war.” Simon also expressed extreme concern about the rise in antisemitism in the UK. “It’s worrying that during the protests we’ve seen some antisemitic slogans and some calls for jihad. The government is responding to that — it takes the safety of Jewry in the UK very seriously.”
• The IDF says that over the last day it has conducted strikes against some 600 Hamas sites, including weapons storage sites, hideouts, and staging grounds.
• IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said “dozens of terrorists” from “tactical command” were killed during bombing in Gaza. “They were those who command the people and direct them in the field,” Hagari said, accusing Hamas of “using schools, hospitals, and others. They do not want anything other than to use them as a human shield.”
• Hagari also updated the number of hostages believed to be in Gaza. The military has notified the families of 239 hostages. “It’s an unfathomable number. There are foreign workers among the hostages, it takes us time to reach everyone’s families,” he says.
• At the request of the US Administration, humanitarian aid is entering the Gaza Strip. The aid includes only water, food, and medical supplies. A total of 108 trucks have entered during the past eight days, including 33 yesterday and 24 today.
• With rocket fire from Gaza continuing, homes were hit this morning when 30 rockets were fired on the southern Israeli city of Netivot.
• In the north, the IDF carried out airstrikes against several Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon in response to rocket and missile fire on northern Israel. The IDF said targets included “infrastructure for directing terror, and military infrastructure.” Troops also struck another anti-tank guided missile squad in southern Lebanon and carried out a drone strike on a terror operative flying a drone over the border.
• An IDF reserve soldier was killed, and three soldiers injured in a tank accident on the northern border.
• Elsewhere, Channel 12 reports a warning by Shin Bet head Ronen Bar to the war cabinet and the wider cabinet of “fears about an eruption” of violence in the West Bank. “The specific warning notes a rise in violence by settlers [and] incidents between settlers and Palestinians that result in the deaths of Palestinians.”
• According to the report, Israeli sources said that “these incidents are likely to set the area alight” and harm the war effort against Hamas. Palestinians said on Saturday that a Palestinian man was shot dead as he harvested olives near the West Bank village of As-Sawiya.
• Last night IDF troops conducted an operation in Jenin to arrest wanted men. Palestinian media reported that three Palestinians were killed and nine injured. One of the dead has been identified by Palestinian media as Wiam Hanoun, suggested to be a founder of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad offshoot Jenin Brigade.

Context: As world leaders emphasise the importance of preventing a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories) claimed yesterday that Hamas possesses fuel reserves, and is continuing to take control of private fuel reserves. Essential facilities in Gaza depend on the fuel depots of Hamas, which supplies a limited quantity every few days.

• According to new intelligence received and exposed by the IDF, Hamas has a fuel depot of approximately one million litres, and is controlling the supply of fuel to hospitals and other essential facilities, according to its own interests. It does so to add pressure to the international discourse by creating the public perception of a fuel shortage in the Gaza Strip.
• Gaza has local energy production based on solar farms and on generators powered by private fuel reserves, COGAT says.  All the essential facilities — hospitals, desalination plants, wells, and the like — have alternative energy sources. For example, 70 percent of the energy needs of the European Hospital are met by solar energy.
• COGAT also says there is no shortage of food for the near term, and food reserves in the Strip are sufficient for at least a month. Medical supplies are sufficient for the near term, both by Hamas and by the international organisations.
• According to COGAT, there is also currently no water shortage in Gaza. The Birket Sa’id water line, which was damaged by Hamas mortar fire, has been repaired and is once more supplying water to the residents of the central Gaza Strip. The reopening of the Birket Sa’id water line has improved the water accessibility and quality.
• In the northern Gaza Strip, the municipalities distribute water from tanks. They also pump water from the ground and into the water system. In the southern Gaza Strip, and particularly in the Khan Younis area which is served by the Bani Suheila water line, there is a constant supply of water.

Looking ahead: The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting this afternoon at the request of the United Arab Emirates. The council has already rejected four draft resolutions – one vetoed by the US, one vetoed by Russia and China, and two that failed to get the minimum nine “yes” votes.

• Amid concerns of regional escalation, Jordan has asked the US to deploy its Patriot missile defence system to bolster its border defences.

Netanyahu announces war entering “second stage”: Israel’s ground incursions intensified as IDF troops entered Gaza from the northeastern town of Beit Hanoun and in the central area of al Bureij overnight Friday.

• In parallel, the IDF confirmed that it has hit over 450 Hamas targets in the past day, including command centres, observation posts, and anti-tank guided missile launch positions.
• 150 underground targets in the northern Gaza Strip were hit, including “terror tunnels, underground combat spaces and additional underground infrastructure” which resulted in the deaths of several Hamas members.
• The IDF also confirmed that overnight Friday, Head of Hamas’ Aerial Array, Asem Abu Rakaba was killed in an airstrike. IDF fighter also jets struck Ratib Abu Tzahiban, Commander of Hamas’ Naval Forces of the Gaza City Brigade.
• Netanyahu, speaking alongside Minister Benny Gantz and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, emphasised that the goals are clear: “destroying Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and bringing the captives back home.”
• Gallant said that “the strength of the fire shook the ground in Gaza, and it’s different from anything Hamas has experienced since its creation… IDF forces are maneuvering in the relevant places, and are striking Hamas arrays right now, above ground and underground.”
• “This will not be a short war,” Gallant said. “It is a long war that will require us to be strong, as individuals, as a society, as leaders.”
• Yesterday, incoming rocket alerts sounded in numerous southern communities, including the coastal cities of Ashdod and Ashkelon. A rocket launched from the Gaza Strip landed on a home in Ramat Gan. Rockets also landed in the central cities of Kiryat Ono and Holon.
• In total, some 7,800 rockets have been fired towards Israel since October 7.

The hostages: Netanyahu also met families of the hostages held in Gaza, promising to  “utilise every opportunity to return our kidnapped brothers and sisters to their families’ embrace.”

• The representatives of the families urged Netanyahu to agree to an “everyone for everyone” prisoner exchange with the Hamas terror group, trading Palestinians incarcerated in Israel for security offences for the hundreds who were abducted from Israel on October 7.
• Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida demanded that Israel release all Palestinian security prisoners in return for the Israeli hostages. In a statement broadcast by the Hamas-run Al-Aqsa television channel, he said “the price to pay for the large number of enemy hostages in our hands is to empty the (Israeli) prisons of all Palestinian prisoners.”
• Qatar’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said that the parties involved in negotiations for the release of hostages are considering the possibility of a prisoner exchange deal. According to him, Hamas’ handling of the hostage issue is being conducted in a chaotic manner.
• “Talks are ongoing with all parties around the clock to make sure we reach an agreement, and we hope to succeed,” Al-Ansari said, adding that the expansion of Israeli military activity in Gaza makes this difficult.

Regional: In the north, the IDF said it struck a compound belonging to the Hezbollah terror group and a number of observation posts in southern Lebanon in response to four separate rocket and missile attacks yesterday. Rockets were fired from Lebanon toward Shtula earlier in the day, setting off sirens in the northern community.

• Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri met in Beirut with Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s parliament and a Hezbollah ally. Berri, head of the Shiite Amal movement, congratulated Hamas for its brutal onslaught against Israel on October 7, in which 1,400 Israelis were killed, most of them civilians.
• The US moved a 2nd strike group into the Mediterranean. The USS Eisenhower passed Gibraltar, along with USS Gravely and USS Mason. The Ford carrier strike group is operating west of Cyprus.

Diplomatic:  A Jordanian resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, which made no mention of Hamas, was overwhelmingly passed by the United Nations General Assembly on Friday.

• It called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all civilians, the protection of civilians and international institutions, and ensuring the safe passage of humanitarian aid into the Strip.
• 120 voted in favour of the non-binding resolution, while just 14 — United States, Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Fiji, Guatemala, Hungary, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay and Tonga — voted against it. 45 countries abstained, including the UK.
• Canada sought to have an amendment added to the resolution to include a condemnation of Hamas and a majority of members backed the proposal, but it fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to be adopted. 88 countries voted for the amendment, 55 voted against and 33 abstained.
• On Saturday, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen announced that Israel was recalling its diplomats from Turkey to “reassess relations”, after Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan made another speech attacking Israel for its actions in Gaza.

Context: Contrary to last week’s initial ground incursion in which troops withdrew to Israel at the conclusion of their mission, on this occasion troops remained inside Gaza.

• While the families of the hostages fear an IDF offensive would hurt chances of reaching a deal, some Israeli professionals believe that the more Hamas is backed into a corner, the more it will try to use the cards it is holding to improve its situation, including by releasing hostages.
• At the same time, current estimates are that there are low chances of reaching a deal are low. Qatari-led negotiations continue.
• The IDF ground operation has been relatively slow due to:
  • The IDF’s understanding that this is going to be a long war and there is no reason to rush into an operation that could get bogged down.
  • The desire to ensure that Hezbollah does not capitalise on a full-blown ground incursion to Gaza to open a second front.
  • The understanding that a long war will require different military and civilian preparations. Reports suggest that the current plan is to get the public accustomed to functioning amid military activity in Gaza, and that if there is no escalation in the north, some reservists will be released and the Israeli economy will return to partial activity.
• Video footage released of the interrogation of two Hamas terrorists captured following October 7th appears to confirm the long-held assessment that Hamas’s main base of operations is situated underneath Gaza City’s Shifa hospital.
• Hezbollah’s escalation of hostilities in the north remains relatively contained. 58 Hezbollah terrorists have so far been killed in this war, and the IDF’s estimation is that it remains reluctant to pursue a large-scale escalation.
• Having last week said that Hamas was not a terrorist organisation, Erdogan this time told a pro-Palestinian rally that “Israel, we will proclaim you as a war criminal to the world.”
• Turkey has only recently fully restored diplomatic relations with Israel following many years of diplomatic tension.

Looking ahead: As its ground operations intensify, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Israel was “increasing the urgency” of its call for northern Gazans to move south.

• “Civilians in northern Gaza, in Gaza City should temporarily move south of Wadi Gaza to a safer area, where they can receive water, food, and medicine,” he said.
• Hagari also said that from Monday, “humanitarian efforts to Gaza, led by Egypt and the United States, will be expanding.”

What happened: Defence Minister Gallant stated that a ground war was approaching, that Israel would win the war, and it would make a “supreme effort” to return the hostages.

• “We are in decisive moments. This is a war for our home and we will win it. It’s either us or them,” Gallant said.
• Discussing a ground incursion, Gallant detailed that “additional stages in the war will also come, we are creating the conditions for them and we will carry them out. I am determined… to ensure the State of Israel is victorious over this tough and evil enemy — over this epitome of evil.”

In the south: The IDF conducted targeted raids in the Gaza Strip and struck dozens of terror targets belonging to Hamas. Yesterday, IDF ground forces, accompanied by IDF fighter jets and UAVs, conducted an additional targeted raid in the central Gaza Strip hitting Hamas targets in the Shuja’iyya area and throughout Gaza.

• The IDF announced it had killed five senior Hamas commanders yesterday in airstrikes, including three senior commanders in Hamas’s Daraj-Tuffah Battalion, which “played a significant role in the invasion and murderous attack against Israel on October 7th,” and is “considered the most significant brigade of the Hamas terrorist organisation.”. Those Daraj-Tuffah terrorists killed were:
  • The battalion’s commander, Rifaat Abbas.
  • The deputy commander, Ibrahim Jadba.
  • A combat support commander, Tarek Maarouf.

• Also killed in IDF strikes were:
  • Shadi Barud, the deputy head of Hamas’s intelligence directorate who planned the October 7 attacks with Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
  • Hassan al-Abdullah, the head of Hamas’s North Khan Younis rocket array.
• Hamas continued to fire missiles at the Israeli home front. Air raid sirens sounded yesterday in Tel Aviv, Rishon Lezion, Bat Yam, Givatayim, Ramat Gan, Holon and others, following a heavy barrage of rockets from Gaza. In total, over 7,000 rockets have been fired at Israel.
• A building in the central city of Petah Tikvah was damaged in a rocket attack on central Israel.
• President Herzog visited Rahat where he met with and offered sympathy to Bedouin leaders and families of hostages held by Hamas. “I say to everyone around the world, that this is not a war between Jews and Muslims. This is a war between the people of who seek to bring light and the people who seek to bring darkness. Between good and bad. Between good and evil. This is the war that we are fighting.”
• Officials confirmed a report that Israel is considering allowing fuel into Gaza in exchange for the release of hostages, if a large exchange deal is proposed, although no such concrete proposal is on the agenda.

In the north: The IDF carried out a drone strike against a Hezbollah cell which was preparing to launch an anti-tank guided missile attack against an army post on the northern border. Hezbollah has so far named 46 members killed by Israel since the war began.

• Gallant said Israel was “not interested in widening the war, but will deal with it if necessary,” emphasising that Israel was “ready for any eventuality”.

US strikes Iranian targets: Two US fighter jets struck weapons and ammunition facilities near Abu Kamal, a Syrian town on the border with Iraq on Friday morning, in response to attacks on US forces by Iranian-backed militia, as concerns grew that the Israel-Hamas conflict may spread in the Middle East.

• The Pentagon said that President Biden ordered strikes on the two facilities used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and militia groups that it backs. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said, “these Iranian-backed attacks against U.S. forces are unacceptable and must stop.”

Diplomacy: Israel criticised Russia for a meeting it hosted with Abu Marzouk, a member of Hamas’s political bureau in Moscow.

• “Israel sees the invitation of senior Hamas officials to Moscow as an obscene step that gives support to terrorism and legitimises the atrocities of Hamas terrorists,” tweeted Foreign ministry spokesman Lior Haiat.
• The Russian Foreign Ministry argued that the release of the hostages was discussed as well as the evacuation of Russian and other foreign citizens from Gaza.
• Foreign ministers of the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt and Morocco blasted Israel for killing civilians. In a joint statement calling on the UN Security Council to implement an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, they argued that “self-defence does not justify violations of international law, and deliberate disregard for the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.”
• Israel is seeking to block a General Assembly resolution. “The drafters of the resolution claim to be concerned about ‘peace,’” Ambassador Erdan said, “yet the depraved murderers who initiated this war are not even mentioned in the resolution.”

Context: This is the second night of a limited IDF ground incursion followed by a withdrawal.

• Israel continues to try and balance between its military aims of toppling Hamas in Gaza and releasing the over 200 hostages.
• Qatar is pressuring the Israeli government to agree to a deal to release the hostages at the expense of giving up on the ground operation. There is currently talk of a deal that will include women and children in exchange for humanitarian gestures. However, Hamas and Qatar are stalling in the belief this helps improve their negotiating power and postpones Israel carrying out a ground operation.
• In his speech on Wednesday, Netanyahu said that the war’s two aims were to “eliminate Hamas by destroying its military and governance capabilities, and to do everything possible to get our hostages back.”
• Yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said at the UN that that if Israel’s offensive against Hamas did not stop the US would “not be spared from this fire”.
• US and coalition troops have already been attacked at least 19 times in Iraq and in Syria by Iran-backed forces in the past week. On Thursday, a US base at Kharab al-Jir in Syria was attacked for the second time in two days, and a base in western Iraq was also hit.
• Yesterday Opposition leader Lapid presented a plan for government to better support Israelis. The eight-part plan covers education, small business support, increased mental health care, and measures to ease the economic burden on families whose members have mobilised. These include small and medium-sized businesses being supplied with economic allowances and flexible grants, flexible economic allowances for families of reserve soldiers who were called up, and enlisting more therapists and transferring the responsibility and budget for them to local authorities.

Looking ahead: A (non-binding and generally symbolic) General Assembly resolution will be voted on today and is expected to pass. The text calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all civilian hostages, the protection of civilians and international institutions, and ensuring the safe passage of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

• The prime minister addressed the nation last night, pledging to deliver on two objectives: to “eliminate Hamas by destroying its military and governing abilities,” and “to do everything possible to bring our captives home.”
• Netanyahu confirmed that “we are preparing for a ground incursion. I will not detail when, how or how many, or the overall considerations that we are taking into account.”
• “The timing of the IDF action,” he continued, “will be determined unanimously by the War Cabinet, together with the IDF Chief-of-Staff. Together with the Security Cabinet, we are working to ensure the optimal conditions for our soldiers in the coming actions.”
• Netanyahu also reiterated Israel’s call for Gazan civilians to move south to the safe zone.
• “Even amidst the storm of battle,” he continued, “we do not forget for a moment the immense pain of the loss of over 1,400 of our brothers and sisters, who were massacred in cold blood and who heroically fell in battle against the bloodthirsty monsters who have risen up to destroy us. Cutting short their lives is like a hail of arrows at our heart. The soul of the nation is bleeding.”
• Amid widespread criticism both of the failures in intelligence which were exposed on October 7^th and of his own failure to take personal responsibility for them, Netanyahu said “This failure will be investigated thoroughly. Everyone will need to provide answers, myself included, but all of this will happen only after the war.”

In Gaza: The IDF has confirmed that infantry troops conducted a limited ground incursion in the northern Gaza strip last night. In a mission to prepare for the “next stages of the war,” troops, equipped with tanks, targeted terrorists, infrastructure and anti-tank guided missile launch positions. On completion of the mission, troops withdrew to Israel.

• Israel also continued its aerial attacks on Hamas positions in the Gaza Strip, the IDF confirming that in the last 24 hours it had hit over 250 Hamas targets.
• Rocket fire from Gaza also continues, 6 people being injured and 12 treated for shock following a heavy missile barrage on central Israel.

In the north: Throughout the day yesterday, there were at least half a dozen incidents of anti-tank missile and rocket fire from Lebanese territory towards civilian and military positions close to the border.

• The IDF has continued to respond to every act of Hezbollah aggression, targeting the cells responsible for these attacks.
• Hezbollah has confirmed 44  of its operatives have been confirmed killed since this conflict began.

Context: This was Netanyahu’s first public commitment to a ground offensive.

• It was aimed at putting an end to the speculation that had suggested disagreements between Netanyahu and the military leadership over a ground operation.
• Nevertheless, he would not be drawn on timing. The delay is being explained by a number of factors. According to the Wall Street Journal, the delay is due to the US needing more time to deploy additional air defence systems into the region, to protect its own troops.
• The US position alludes to the complexity, that this war is not just Israel versus Hamas, but is part of a broader clash against Iran and her proxies. This is evidenced by aggression from Hezbollah, Iranian proxies in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.
• In addition, since the October 7 massacre, US forces on the Syrian-Iraq border have also come under attack. There have been reports of around 25 injured US servicemen in a series of rocket and mortar attacks on their base.
• The second reason for a delay is related to US efforts to broker a hostage release via Qatari mediation. So far, four of the hostages have been released, with at least 220, including 30 babies and children still held hostage.
• Yesterday Israel’s National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi posted a message on X, “I’m pleased to say that Qatar is becoming an essential party and stakeholder in the facilitation of humanitarian solutions. Qatar’s diplomatic efforts are crucial at this time.”
• While not in a formal state of conflict with Israel, Qatar has long played a duplicitous role, leading anti-Israeli hostility and hosting Hamas’s external leadership. Whilst prior to October 7 they provided financial support for Gaza, with the Israeli government’s tacit approval.
• It is thought Hanegbi, a long-time confidant of Netanyahu, would only release such a statement in concert with the prime minister.
• There is speculation that Hamas could distinguish between hostages and agree to release non-Israelis, foreign workers, dual nationals, women, children, elderly people or hostages with health issues.
• In return, Israel would acquiesce to increasing humanitarian aid into Gaza and even possibly release Palestinian female prisoners or older or ill security prisoners.
• In Yediot Ahronot, Ronen Bergman questions the prime minister’s assertion, and argues that Israel faces two mutually exclusive options: it can either pursue a deal to bring all the remaining hostages home or proceed with the anticipated ground incursion. “It’s either/or, without any option between them.”
• Earlier this week, President Biden spoke with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). They confirmed the Gulf Cooperation Council’s contribution of $100 million to support humanitarian relief in Gaza.

Looking ahead: Israel is cooperating with the US effort to deliver more humanitarian aid to the Gazan civilians via Egypt.

• It is estimated that a ground offensive will begin in the next few day, but the range and extent remain classified.
• As part of part of President Biden and MbS’s conversation they recognised the importance of the path towards Israeli-Saudi normalisation resuming after the conflict is over. Any deal will now have to include a substantial sustainable peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
• The Defence Ministry has revealed this morning that evacuations of Israel’s northern and southern border communities will continue until the end of 2023, with some 200,000 Israelis already internally displaced by the threat on both borders.