BICOM

Palestinian terror groups continued to fire rockets from the Gaza Strip last night and in the earlier hours of this morning, despite reports of an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas-controlled Gaza. At least 12 rockets and missiles have been fired into Israel since the ceasefire, declared by Hamas leaders in Gaza, was meant to have gone into effect at 9.00pm local time Sunday night. Retaliatory strikes by the Israel Air Force also took place. Because of the unofficial nature of the ceasefire, the continuation of some violence after its announcement does not necessarily indicate the comprehensive failure of Egyptian mediation efforts, nor does it necessarily presage a major escalation of hostilities.

The mediation efforts aim to bring to an early end the latest round of violence between Israel and Hamas-controlled Gaza, which commenced last Thursday with the murder of eight Israelis in a well-coordinated series of terror attacks in southern Israel.  Israeli officials believe that the terrorists entered Israel from the Sinai Peninsula, after setting out from Gaza. Israel ultimately holds Hamas responsible for the attacks, as the Gaza authorities have allowed terror groups to organise in the area it controls.

A number of media sources reported at the weekend that Egypt was withdrawing its ambassador to Israel, due to the deaths of three members of the Egyptian security forces during an Israeli operation to pursue the perpetrators of last week’s terror attacks. In the end, the ambassador did not depart and Defence Minister Ehud Barak expressed his regret at the deaths of the Egyptian security personnel. An Israeli delegation is also reported to have arrived in Cairo to discuss ways to mend relations between Israel and Egypt. The intense diplomatic effort, which remains mostly behind the scenes, indicates the importance of Israel-Egypt relations to regional stability. The incident led to the first diplomatic crisis between Israel and post-Mubarak Egypt, which appears to have been patched up for now. Israel remains deeply concerned about the failure by the Egyptian authorities to adequately impose their rule in northern Sinai, which has long been a centre for smuggling and other activities by extreme jihadist groups. Nevertheless, neither Israel nor Egypt has anything to gain from deepening the crisis.

Similarly, both Israel and the de facto Hamas authorities in Gaza want to see quiet restored between Israel and Gaza.  A high level Israeli delegation is reportedly currently in Cairo for discussions on the renewed ceasefire with Hamas and resolving the larger diplomatic crisis with Egypt.  Israel has no desire for a major confrontation with Hamas in the build-up to the expected UN vote on Palestinian statehood next month.  According to Israeli media reports, Hamas is facing difficulties because of a decline in Iranian funding, and thus also does not seek conflict.