What’s happened: US envoy Steve Witkoff appeared poised to unveil a revised ceasefire proposal amid optimistic leaks, mainly from American sources, of closing gaps between the positions of Hamas and Israel.
- According to reports, the new ceasefire would include:
- An immediate release of nine or ten living hostages, plus the remains of 18 deceased hostages. Hamas holds 58 Israeli hostages, of whom twenty are presumed to be alive.
- In return Israel is to release 125 heavyweight terrorists with blood on their hands, all of whom are life-term prisoners. Israel will also release 1,111 terrorists from the Gaza Strip who were arrested after October 7, 2023. Israel will also be required to release the remains of 180 dead terrorists.
- The proposed ceasefire would last 60 days, during which negotiations would continue for a permanent end to the war and a release of all remaining hostages. Hamas is insisting on stronger American guarantees that the ceasefire would lead to a permanent end to fighting.
- The US appear confident they have found the wording to reassure Israel that if no agreements are reached by the end of that period, Israel will be able either to renew the fighting or to engage in further negotiations in exchange for the release of additional hostages.
- President Trump publicly confirmed that he had asked Prime Minister Netanyahu not to attack Iran while nuclear negotiations were ongoing. The public statement followed days of speculation about a reportedly tense phone call between the two leaders and American assessments that Israel might be preparing an attack.
- The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation continued expanding its aid distribution amid an astonishing media campaign waged against it by Hamas, the UN, and sundry international NGO’s. Its operations were once more suspended briefly due to crowds and disorder, with no injuries reported.
- According to Israeli officials another 121 trucks belonging to the UN entered into Gaza on Wednesday, delivering flour and other food.
- Elsewhere in the Gaza Strip, a UN food warehouse operated by the UN World Food Program was broken into and looted. At least four people were reported killed; two were trampled and two were killed by gunfire. Media reports were unclear whether the shooting was from Hamas gunmen or criminal gangs. In a statement, the World Food Program refrained from identifying the source of gunfire, while describing the supplies in the warehouse as “pre-positioned for distribution.” In recent weeks, the WFP had consistently reported that it had run out of food stocks entirely due to Israel’s blockade.
Context: The Trump administration’s public pronouncements and diplomatic maneuvers on both Iran and Gaza in the past week have repeatedly and pointedly indicated small but significant differences of opinion and priorities that exist in Jerusalem and Washington.
- Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Ronen Bergman described it as a “gradually increasing friction with the United States over a series of issues that pertain to the hostages and the war in Gaza.” The administration has been keen to emphasise these differences, either as a form of pressure on Netanyahu or as a negotiating tactic — or both.
- In Israel, concern is high that the administration might agree to a deal with Iran that leaves Israel exposed to long-term Iranian nuclear ambitions while removing any threat of American action. Particularly concerning for Israel is the prospect of an interim deal being announced that is vague on details giving Iran instant sanctions relief while negotiations on a detailed accord drag on inconclusively.
- The issue of the hostages continues to roil internal Israeli politics, with hostage families expressing frustration at the prospect of another partial deal, as opposed to an agreement that might liberate all the remaining hostages. The twenty living hostages are widely assumed to all be in poor physical and mental state after 600 days in captivity in tunnels, without adequate light, food, water, and medical care.
- At a rally yesterday in Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Ohad Ben Ami, who survived Hamas captivity and was released in an earlier ceasefire, said, “Of the 58 hostages still held in Gaza, five of them were with me – in the same tunnel, through the same cold nights, living with the same daily terror. All of them are still alive. In the recent videos that were released, I saw them. Eyes dimmed, gaunt, exhausted. The fear I saw in their eyes haunts me. Their physical condition is terrible. Their mental state is even worse. I’m deeply worried about them. I know exactly what they’re going through – I was there. The six of us were imprisoned together in a tunnel 30 meters underground, in inhuman conditions: no light, no air, no medical care, not a single moment of privacy or true quiet. We survived on scraps – both physically and emotionally.”
- Another former hostage Omer Shem Tov was interviewed on CNN, where he described being intentionally starved by Hamas during his 505 days in captivity, forced to survive in the tunnels on merely a biscuit and a few sips of salty water each day, whilst his captors were well fed. He said, “I remember walking by another room in the tunnel, seeing a big amount of food…huge amounts. So, I was being starved. There’s no question about it.”
Looking ahead: A third humanitarian aid distribution centre will be opened today in the Gaza Strip. The new distribution centre will be established in central Gaza, south of the Netzarim Corridor. The first two centres established are both further south.
- Like the others, the new centre will also be capable of providing food to 300,000 Palestinian residents of Gaza every week. It is primarily supposed to serve Palestinian residents of the central Gaza Strip.
- Senior officials in the ultra-Orthodox Shas party are due to meet next week to decide whether to remain in the coalition. Both Shas and the other major ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, have been boycotting votes in parliament in order to pressure the government to proceed with legislations enshrining draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox public into law. Such legislation is deeply unpopular with the Israeli public at large, including with large parts of the right-wing coalition now in power. On the other hand, if the ultra-Orthodox parties follow through with their threats, the result would be an early election.


