What’s happened: President Trump announced the extension of the fragile ceasefire for an additional three weeks following direct talks between Beirut and Jerusalem’s envoys to the US at the White House.

• Despite this, Israeli officials accused Hezbollah yesterday of violating the ceasefire agreement on 16 separate occasions within the last week.
• In response, the IDF struck Hezbollah military structures in southern Lebanon. Israeli officials are concerned that the understandings with Lebanon that underpinned the ceasefire might collapse unless the US can pressure the Lebanese government to take action against Hezbollah north of the security zone.
• Sgt. Idan Fooks, a 19-year-old resident of Petah Tikva, was killed by an exploding Hezbollah drone. Six soldiers were injured, four of whom were hospitalised in serious condition. He is the third Israeli soldier to be killed since the ceasefire began and the 15th in this campaign.
• There remains deep resentment in northern Israel. This morning mayors from the northern border communities announced that schools would be closed as of tomorrow. The mayors said that despite the announcements about a ceasefire, the reality on the ground proves that security on the border had not been restored and that the communities remain under fire.

What’s happened: Today is Memorial Day in Israel, which commemorates the fallen Israeli soldiers and civilian victims. Over the last year, 172 soldiers and 56 civilians were killed, marking a total of 25,648 soldiers who have fallen in war and the 5,313 civilians who were murdered in terror attacks.

• Two more soldiers were killed in Lebanon over the weekend, despite the ceasefire. Sgt. First Class (res.) Lidor Porat, a 31-year-old resident of Ashdod, was killed when an IDF engineering vehicle drove over a bomb that had been planted by Hezbollah in the forward defensive zone. On Friday, 48-year-old Warrant Officer (res.) Barak Kalfon, was killed by  an IED exploded.
• Fifteen soldiers have been killed in Lebanon since the beginning of March.
• At the state ceremony at the Western Wall Plaza last night, President Herzog spoke about the legacy of the fallen. Herzog said, “They left behind a void in our hearts that will never be filled. But they also left us strength of spirit. We do not live by the sword, but with it. We will wield it with one hand when needed, like now, and it will be sharp and resolute. But the spirit will always exist, the spirit that dreams of peace, freedom and dignity, the spirit that is filled with faith and with love for humanity, the people and the land.”
• IDF Chief of Staff Zamir said, “We, as a people, all parts of the people, must have a deep partnership in the mission of security and shouldering the burden through learning and changing. This war has taught us that these are the essential conditions for our military might and that cohesion is a condition for our survival.”
• At 11am local time this morning, across the country, Israelis paused wherever they were, including on motorways, and stood in silence as a two-minute siren sounded.

Context: Following the ceasefire with Lebanon, which was announced by US President Trump, IDF forces continued ground manoeuvres in the areas under their control in southern Lebanon.

• The IDF has divided the security zone into three lines:
  • The red zone is defined as the first line of villages adjacent to the Israel-Lebanon border, in which a majority of the buildings have already been cleared and are considered to be terrorist-free, and IDF troops have taken up permanent positions in some locations.
  • The second line (similar to Gaza), is the yellow line – or the anti-tank missile line. This is the row of villages located six-to-ten km from the border. This zone is meant to prevent direct fire of anti-tank missiles on civilian communities in northern Israel. In this area, IDF forces continue to clear the houses and entrench their positions. One of the locations in this area where low-level conflict is the area around Bint Jbeil, where a few isolated Hezbollah terrorists remain surrounded.
  • The third line is the Litani River, where the IDF aims to assert its control via the use of firepower and observation posts.
• In line with Israel’s commitment to the ceasefire, they are not expanding their operations but, according to the IDF continue to act, “in accordance with orders given by the political leadership… the IDF has the right to take the necessary measures for self-defence against threats, while maintaining the security of the citizens of the State of Israel and the troops deployed in the field.”
• According to Israel’s interpretation of the ceasefire conditions, the IDF will target any terrorist operatives up to the Litani River, and maintain their freedom of action in southern Lebanon. This appears similar to the arrangement reached in November 2024, except this time they currently hold a much deeper presence within southern Lebanon.
• Israel is framing this as “Forward Defence Line” rather than a formal security zone, which Israel held with similar dimensions between 1983 and 2000. There appear to be two major distinctions:
  • Firstly, the security zone consisted of heavily fortified semi-permanent positions, while this time the IDF does not envision a long term presence and does not want to remain static.
  • Secondly, during the 1980s and 90s the IDF had a partner in the form of the SLA – South Lebanon Army, made up of Lebanese Christian allies.
• Those former Lebanese Christian allies were reeling after the releases of a photo of an IDF solider desecrating a statue of Jesus Christ. The photo was apparently taken in the Christian village of Debel, which had contributed to the SLA and had not been evacuated this time, due to their opposition to Hezbollah. The IDF said they view the incident with “great severity and emphasises that the soldier’s conduct is wholly inconsistent with the values expected of its troops.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu also commented on this grave incident “As the Jewish state, Israel cherishes and upholds the Jewish values of tolerance and mutual respect between Jews and worshippers of all faiths. All religions flourish in our land and we view members of all faiths as equals in building our society and region. Yesterday, like the overwhelming majority of Israelis, I was stunned and saddened to learn that an IDF soldier damaged a Catholic religious icon in southern Lebanon. I condemn the act in the strongest terms. Military authorities are conducting a criminal probe of the matter and will take appropriately harsh disciplinary action against the offender. While Christians are being slaughtered in Syria and Lebanon by Muslims, the Christian population in Israel thrives unlike elsewhere in the Middle East. Israel is the only country in the region that the Christian population and standard of living is growing. Israel is the only place in the Middle East that adheres to freedom of worship for all. We express regret for the incident and for any hurt this has caused to believers in Lebanon and around the world.”
• Furthermore, the IDF later assisted the community in restoring the statue to its place.
• Meanwhile there is anger among residents of northern Israel who feel betrayed by their own government, with the perception that the premature ceasefire was forced upon them before their safety was adequately reached.
• US Admiral Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, visited Israel again over the weekend and met with IDF Chief of Staff Zamir, suggesting the two militaries remain closely coordinated.

Looking ahead: Tonight marks the sharp shift in the Israel public mood, as Memorial Day ends and celebration of Israel’s 78th Independence Day begins.

• Israel remain on a high level of alert wary of the possibility of renewed fighting, should the talks between the US and Iran collapse.
• Trump’s two week deadline for ceasefire talks with Iran ends tomorrow. According to Saudi media, Pakistan has asked the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire by two weeks.  

What’s happened: Following President Trump announcement on Thursday afternoon, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect midnight local time.

• The sides released a joint statement which stated how an understanding had been reached “in which both nations will work to create conditions conducive to lasting peace between the two countries, full recognition of each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and establishing genuine security along their shared border, while preserving Israel’s inherent right to self-defence.”
• The statement also confirms that “Israel and Lebanon request that the United States facilitate further direct negotiations between the two countries with the objective of resolving all remaining issues, including demarcation of the international land boundary, with a view to concluding a comprehensive agreement that ensures lasting security, stability, and peace between the two countries.”
• In the final hours before the ceasefire Hezbollah fired dozens of missiles and rockets towards northern Israel. Most of them were intercepted and several landed in uninhabited territory. A 25-year-old motorcyclist and a 17-year-old girl sustained serious injuries from interceptor shrapnel near the city of Karmiel. A 40-year-old man in Nahariya sustained moderate injuries.
• Inside Lebanon the IDF attacked the launchers that fired the rockets. IDF officials reported that more than 380 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon were attacked in the past 24 hours.
• The IDF told residents of southern Lebanon that IDF troops would remain in the area despite the start of the ceasefire and residents are forbidden to travel south of the Litani River. However, as of this morning it appears many Lebanese are ignoring this warning.    Earlier in the day Lebanese President Aoun rebuffed US efforts to hold a telephone conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu, contrary to President Trump’s declaration the day before.

Context: Prime Minister Netanyahu had informed government ministers at the security cabinet meeting on Wednesday that in the event that Trump were to ask Israel to hold its fire in Lebanon, he would agree. Nevertheless, the timing came as a surprise to the Israeli public and government ministers.

• There is grave concern that behind the scenes it was Iran that demanded the linkage to their own  ceasefire, reinforcing the perception that their influence in Lebanon remains intact. This was a situation that Israel had categorically rejected when the US and Iran agreed to the broader  ceasefire.
• Marom Hagalil Regional Council Chairman Amit Sofer told Israeli media, “It’s unreasonable for Trump to link the Lebanese theatre to the Iranian theatre. By so doing, he’s sentencing the residents of northern Israel to more years of an ongoing threat. The IDF must be allowed to win and to achieve the objective that the political leadership gave it: disarming Hezbollah…. Hezbollah must be isolated from its Iranian big brother, that’s part of cutting off the terrorist lifeline and breaking the axis of evil, which is why a ceasefire is currently a worse possibility for the north than continuing the war is.”
• The ceasefire is expected to follow the same format of the agreement that was concluded by the Biden administration in November 2024, whereby Israel will be allowed to take action against Hezbollah violations. There is hope (but limited confidence) that this time the Lebanese government will also act to enforce the agreement. However, even though the IDF continued to operate in Lebanon and to strike Hezbollah since November 2024, it is now self-evident that Hezbollah was still able to rebuild and threaten the residents of northern Israel.  
• In an encouraging sign the statement including mutual “full recognition of each other’s sovereignty.” This is particularly significant as it marks the first time that Lebanon and Israel have recognised each other in a normalised fashion rather than as enemy states.
• Following Trumps announcement, Prime Minister Netanyahu declared, “We have two fundamental demands for these peace talks: First, the disarmament of Hezbollah. Second, a sustainable peace agreement, peace through strength. To achieve this ceasefire, Hezbollah insisted on two conditions: First, that Israel must withdraw from all Lebanese territory, back to the international border. Second, a ceasefire based on the ‘quiet for quiet’ model. I agreed to neither of these, and indeed, those two conditions are not being met.”
• He further clarified, “We are remaining in Lebanon in a reinforced security buffer zone…. This is a security strip ten km deep, which is much stronger, more intense, more continuous, and more solid than what we had previously. That is where we are and we are not leaving. This allows us, first and foremost, to block the danger of an invasion into our communities, and secondly, it allows us to prevent direct anti-tank fire into the communities. The residents are now protected from these two dangers. Of course, there are still problems; They still have rockets left. We will have to deal with that as well, as part of the progress toward a security agreement and a continuous peace treaty.”
• Earlier this week, Israel and Lebanon’s ambassadors to the US met for direct talks under Secretary of State Rubio’s supervision in Washington DC. These were Israel and Lebanon’s first direct talks since 1993, and shortly afterwards a joint statement was released proclaiming how they had held “productive discussions” on steps “toward launching direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon.”
• This comes as the US and Iran also move towards extending their own ceasefire with further Pakistani mediated negotiations taking place in Islamabad.

Looking ahead: According to Netanyahu, he is anticipating another invitation to the White House, this time along with Lebanese President Aoun, for an opportunity “to forge a historic peace agreement with Lebanon.”  

What’s happened: The two ambassadors met yesterday with the goal of reaching a peace agreement between the two countries.

• Ahead of the meeting, US Secretary of State Rubio referred to a “historic opportunity” rather than a ceasefire. He spoke of how the talks were about “bringing a permanent end to 20 or 30 years of Hezbollah’s influence in this part of the world and the – not just the damage that it’s inflicted on Israel, the damage that it’s inflicted on the Lebanese people. We have to remember the Lebanese people are victims of Hezbollah. The Lebanese people are victims of Iranian aggression. And this needs to stop.”
• He cautioned that it would take time. “This is a process, not an event.” He spoke of the hope that “we can outline the framework upon which a permanent and lasting peace can be developed so that, as I said, the people of Israel can live in peace, and the people of Lebanon can live not just in peace but the prosperity and security that they deserve.”
• Following the meeting, the three sides issued a joint statement noting that the participants held “productive discussions” on steps “toward launching direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon.” The United States congratulated the two countries on this historic milestone and expressed its support for further talks, and for the Government of Lebanon’s plans to restore the monopoly of force and to end Iran’s overbearing influence.” The US also “underscored that these negotiations have the potential to unlock significant reconstruction assistance and economic recovery for Lebanon and expand investment opportunities for both countries.”
• After the meeting, Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter said, “The Lebanese government made it very clear that they will no longer be occupied by Hezbollah,” adding, “We are both united in liberating Lebanon from an occupation power dominated by Iran called Hezbollah.”
• Ambassador Leiter revealed that the sides discussed “the long-term vision, where there will be a clearly delineated border between our countries, and where the only reason we’ll need to cross each other’s territory will be in business suits to conduct business, or in bathing suits to go on vacation.”
• At the same time, rocket fire from Hezbollah continues. This morning about 40 rockets were fired into northern Israel.

Context: This symbolic but significant meeting was the first time Israel and Lebanon have held direct talks since 1993.

• For Israel, the talks reflect the doctrine of ‘peace through strength,’ Ambassador Leiter committed to “work tirelessly for tranquility and prosperity for all. Today, we pursue those values for ourselves and especially for our Lebanese neighbours of all ethnic denominations. I commend President Joseph Aoun and his government for not allowing itself to be held hostage to the threats of Hezbollah’s leader. Naim Qassem and Hezbollah belong to the past. We are here for the future. I believe that we can, in good faith, accomplish the following interrelated goals: the complete dismantlement of Hezbollah, the freeing of Lebanon from Iran’s terror proxy, and the achievement of a real, lasting and mutually-celebrated peace for the benefit of our peoples.”
• It is understood that at this point the US aspire to reach a ‘shelf agreement’ that will be ready for implementation once Hezbollah is disarmed. 
• It is also notable that France has so far been absent from the process. Given Paris’s historic role in Lebanon and its longstanding political and cultural ties there, this underlines how firmly the talks are currently being driven by Washington.
• Despite the optimism emanating from Washington, fighting in southern Lebanon continued, whist Hezbollah missiles and drone continue to target communities in northern Israel. A security official revealed that still over 50 per cent of Hezbollah attacks are being launched from south of the Litani River, signifying that despite IDF advances on the ground it will take much more work to fully demilitarise southern Lebanon.
• Whilst IDF manoeuvres in southern Lebanon continue, Israeli troops have not advanced further north and have held back from any further escalation. The IDF has not targeted Hezbollah positions in Beirut for almost a week. This is thought to have been done at the request of the US.
• Meanwhile, Hezbollah continue to attack northern Israel. Sirens were sounded throughout the day yesterday in Kiryat Shmona and other northern communities. A drone struck the main entrance to Nahariya.
• The negotiations are a result of US pressure on both sides, aiming to create a political horizon for Lebanon and, mainly, to create conditions to allow for US-Iranian negotiations.The Israeli approach is to negotiate with Lebanon as if there is no Hezbollah, and to fight Hezbollah as if there are no peace negotiations.
• Whilst Iran continues to exercise influence over Lebanon it will be impossible to reach a deal. As an example, despite Lebanon declaring the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon as persona non grata, they have been unable to expel him and he remains holed up in the embassy.  

Looking ahead: Despite Israel’s desire to sever the ties between Iran and Lebanon, most analysts believe there can only be progress with Lebanon once the US has resolved their conflict with Iran.

• After this initial meeting the sides are expected to meet again in the next few weeks. It will be noteworthy whether the talks remain at the level of ambassadors or if more senior figures agree to meet.  A second indicator of progress will be the inclusion of military officials, cartographers, and national security experts.

What’s happened: In Bint Jbeil, one of Hezbollah’s key strongholds, Israeli forces are continuing operations to expand the security zone.

• The IDF has now reached the main centre of Hezbollah operations in the town. So far, the IDF says it has eliminated more than 100 terrorists, but its thought there are dozens more, including members of the Radwan Force still holding out.
• The IDF revealed yesterday that more than 250 terrorists and Hezbollah commanders were eliminated in the large-scale strikes in Lebanon on April 8.
• According to a senior intelligence official, “Within a single minute, the IDF struck dozens of Hezbollah command centres and eliminated hundreds of terrorists. The elimination of these commanders delivered a broad, strategic blow that affected all dimensions of the organisation’s capabilities. These were commanders with extensive experience and knowledge that has now been cut short. We have not yet completed assessing the full impact of the strike, and we continue to identify additional terrorists who were eliminated each day.”
• Also yesterday, another IDF soldier Sergeant-Major (res.) Eyal Uriel Bianco, a 30-year-old resident of Katzrin, was killed in southern Lebanon when a Humvee overturned.
• Meanwhile, rocket fire towards northern Israel continued yesterday with sirens throughout the day. A three-story residential building in Nahariya was hit directly yesterday afternoon by a rocket that was not intercepted.