BICOM

What happened: An Iranian weapons factory in Isfahan was targeted by quadcopter drones carrying explosives.

• It is unclear how much damage was caused, with videos showing an explosion (and possibly a secondary explosion – suggesting the presence of explosive material) causing a substantial fire.
• According to Iranian officials, they successfully shot down two drones, with a third causing “minor damage” to the factory roof.
• Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, confirmed the attack yesterday but claimed that “a cowardly drone attack on a military site in central Iran will not impede Iran’s progress on its peaceful nuclear programme.”
• Israeli media has reported four quadcopters caused significant damage to the miliary installation which manufactured Shahed-136 drones (the type supplied to Russia) as well as ballistic missiles.
• According to the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, it was Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad who was responsible for the strikes, though no Israeli officials have confirmed this.
• In a separate incident there were reports of a convoy of trucks belonging to the IRGC that was targeted crossing the border into Syria from Iraq.  Al-Arabiya reported that the aircraft fired warning shots to allow the truck drivers to escape.  The Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen network reported that the attack targeted three Iranian trucks that were part of a convoy of 25 trucks.

Context: If Israel was responsible, this appears to be Israel’s first attack inside Iran since Prime Minister Netanyahu returned to office.

• Whoever was responsible for the attack exhibited impressive technological ability, precise intelligence and operation by agents on the ground (the quadcopters only have a only a modest range).
• This is understood to be at least the fourth Israeli attack inside Iran since Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the head of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme was assassinated in November 2020.
• Since then advanced centrifuges in Natanz were targeted in April 2021 and in Karaj in June that year.
• In February 2022 Iran’s main manufacturing and storage demo for military drones in Kermanshah was targeted after two armed drones were launched towards Israel (and shot down over Iraq). In that strike it is estimated that hundreds of Iranian drones were destroyed.
• Quadcopters could have been used in that strike and have also been deployed in other attacks, including the targeting of a factory producing precision guided missiles inside Lebanon in August 2019.
• Isfahan is one of Iran’s largest and most advanced missile production, research and development sites. These weapons were designated for Iranian proxies across the region that threaten Israel, as well as to potentially supply Russia to be used in Ukraine.
• The target of the strike near the Iraq- Syria border appears to resemble a similar convoy of weapons smuggling that outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi claimed was targeted in a preventative Israeli strike in December 2022.
• These strikes took place just days after the largest ever Israel – US military drill. It also coincided with the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William J. Burns, visiting Israel.

Looking ahead: US Secretary of State Blinken arrives in Israel today. This afternoon he is expected to meet Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog. Iran, expanding the Abraham Accords, US-Israeli security cooperation, Palestinian violence, and judicial reform are all on the agenda.