BICOM

Former British prime minister Tony Blair this week began his work as the new Middle East envoy on behalf of the international Quartet (the EU, UN, US and Russia). Blair is taking up this role at a moment of both hope and uncertainty in the situation faced by Israelis and Palestinians. On the one hand, the Hamas coup in Gaza last month presented a severe setback for all those on both sides seeking a two-state solution to the conflict. For the first time in 20 years, the Palestinians are no longer represented by a single, authoritative leadership. Instead, an Islamic statelet has emerged in Gaza, which is hostile in equal measure to Israel, to Egypt and to the secular Palestinian leadership.

The Gaza coup marked the failure of Saudi diplomacy, since the Mecca agreement of February 2007 had been intended above all to prevent the internecine Palestinian blood-letting that took place during the coup. Yet paradoxically, the emergence of the Hamas-controlled statelet in Gaza may clarify the seriousness and urgency of the situation to the Fatah leaders of the Palestinian Authority, to the international community, to moderate Arab states and to the Israeli leadership. Against this background, a new international effort at bringing the sides together is currently gaining momentum. The construction of an efficient and representative regime in the West Bank is an essential part of this. Tony Blair’s role will be particularly focused on facilitating the emergence of such a regime. This paper will look at the latest moves on the Israeli-Palestinian track, and lay out the key issues on which Blair will need to focus his attention.

The Israeli-Palestinian track: current status

On Friday, the 20^th of July, Israel freed 256 Palestinian security prisoners.¹ This gesture was intended as a confidence-building move to assist the credibility of the new West Bank government appointed by PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, and headed by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.  The freeing of the prisoners took place against a background of renewed international diplomatic activity: President George W. Bush in a speech last week declared his Administration’s determination to solve the conflict, and his support for a renewed international conference involving the parties to it.² This week, the foreign ministers of Jordan and Egypt, Abdelelah al-Khatib and Ahmed Aboul Gheit, are due to visit Israel to discuss the Arab Initiative – which envisages the normalisation of Israel’s relations with the Arab states as a critical element of reaching a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians.³

The renewed international interest in the conflict derives as much from a sense of concern and urgency as it does from hope and a certain degree of desperation. The key process in the region currently taking place is the growth of the regional power and influence of Iran. This is making itself felt in all the ‘local fires’ of the region – including Iraq, the Israeli-Syrian dispute, Lebanon, and the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. The Hamas coup represents the extremely worrying emergence of an entity aligned with the Iranian-led camp, dominating a key Palestinian area.

There is therefore a natural community of interests between Israel, pro-western Arab states such as Egypt and Jordan, the Quartet, and the secular Palestinian leadership, in ensuring that the West Bank does not follow the fate of the Gaza Strip. A key element in this will be the creation of a viable, credible and successful Palestinian Authority on the West Bank.⁴

Key tasks awaiting Blair

1. Linking aid to reform:  The series of defeats suffered by Fatah over the last year derive from the extreme dysfunctionality of the movement. Fatah is divided, widely seen as massively corrupt, and unable to perform many of even the most basic tasks expected of a political leadership.⁵ The movement is widely mistrusted by the Palestinian public. But despite its defeats, it has failed to undertake any process of systematic reform in the last year. Rather, there remains in Fatah a sense of entitlement, combined with a complacent view that international generosity will ultimately ensure something resembling the status quo.

Tony Blair’s task is to ensure funding and support for the PA in the West Bank. But Blair must ensure that the flow of foreign money does not result in a corrupt, unrepresentative Fatah-led PA, which fails to provide for the population under its control, and makes it itself despised. Such a Palestinian Authority will prove no match for Hamas, should the Islamic movement, a few years down the line, choose to make a bid for power on the West Bank. And Israel, aware of this, will not wish to make significant concessions and gestures to such an entity. Hence, first and foremost, Blair must work to create a mechanism which links and conditions renewed funding of the Palestinian Authority with clear, tangible evidence of reform on the ground.⁶

International aid should be conditional on Palestinian progress in this regard. Transparency, trust, and confidence are essential. The new PA government of Salam Fayyad must take responsibility for this.

2. Maintaining the united stance against Hamas: Blair has made clear that he favours the clear maintenance of the current international stance regarding Hamas. At the Lisbon meeting, both he and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reiterated that this stance – according to which Hamas must recognise Israel, abandon violence and commit to existing agreements – before any contacts with it are made.⁷ Hamas is currently conducting an international public relations campaign designed to erode the international consensus in this regard.⁸ Norway, which has broken the international embargo on aid to Hamas, is seeking to acquire an increased role for itself, along with other donor countries that may or may not support the Norwegian stance.⁹ But the awarding of legitimacy to the Hamas regime in Gaza would be disastrous – conferring retrospective acceptance on the movement’s ideology of destruction, its violence, and the extremist system it is attempting to create in Gaza.

3. Building confidence in Israel: One of Tony Blair’s advantages is that he is regarded as a friend of Israel, while he also maintains the trust of moderate Palestinians. Israel remains committed to the two-state solution, and to the survival and strengthening of the new PA government. Blair’s high standing in Israel will enable him to request Israeli gestures designed to aid the West Bank PA Administration at the appropriate time. Israeli flexibility on such issues as checkpoints and freedom of movement in the West Bank are essential for the return of normality to the Palestinian areas. But, crucially, credibility in this regard will depend on success in items 1 and 2.

The emergence of a successful, viable Palestinian entity in the West Bank is the cornerstone from which a revival of the diplomatic process can be constructed. Tony Blair is the international official tasked with making such an entity a reality. To do so requires challenging the basic dynamics of Palestinian politics as practiced until now, resisting calls for appeasement of Hamas, and, when the time is right, using his good name in Israel to appeal for Israeli concessions and gestures of support. Success in this task is not assured and will not be easily achieved. Tony Blair will be in need of his substantial store of optimism in the months to come.

---

¹ “Freed Palestinians welcomed home,” BBC Online, 20 July 2007.

² Peter Baker and Robin Wright, “Bush renews peace efforts,” Washington Post, 17 July 2007.

³ Zvi Barel, “No Festival needed,” Haaretz, 22 July 2007.

⁴ James Hider and Tom Baldwin, “Blair given limited role in quest for Middle East peace,” Times, 20 July 2007.

⁵ Interview with European aid worker in Ramallah. The interviewee spoke of discontent among Fatah rank and file members at the general chaos and disorganization in the movement. Hamas, by contrast, is considered to possess structures enabling it to ‘look after its own.  Even the provisions afforded to security prisoners by the organisations they represent are known to differ significantly, with Fatah prisoners and their families seeing themselves as ignored and neglected by their movement.  

⁶ Based on conversations with European officials working in the West Bank.

⁷ “Blair hopeful for Mid-East talks,” BBC Online, 19 July 2007.

⁸ Barry Rubin, ‘A tale of four op-eds,” Global Research in International Affairs Center, 17 July 2007.  & conversation with author, 22 July 2007. 

⁹ Barak Ravid, “Israel to EU: We oppose giving political role to EU donor states,” Haaretz, 22 July 2007.