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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated January 27, 2023

Overnight rocket fire following Jenin operation

What happened: Nine Palestinians died in clashes between Israeli troops and Palestinian militants during a three-hour IDF operation in the heart of the Jenin Refugee camp on Thursday morning.

  • In response, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has suspended security cooperation with Israel. A Palestinian general strike was also announced in the West Bank.
  • During the night, six rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israel- the Iron Dome intercepted four, one exploded in an open area and one fell inside the strip. The Israeli Air Force hit rocket-holding sites in the Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza and “one of the most significant” Hamas sites in Northern Gaza.
  • According to the IDF, the Jenin raid was launched after intelligence shared by the Shin Bet revealed that an imminent attack on central Israel, involving shooting and explosives, was being planned by the local wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
  • Five of the dead have been confirmed as members of the PIJ cell. “This squad was a ticking time bomb. If we didn’t act, they would have,” said an IDF source.
  • In an attempt to flush out the wanted men from their hideout, troops used “pressure cooker” tactics- deploying shoulder-launched missiles and other explosives. Troops then came under fire and responded in kind.
  • While the IDF is reporting that eight of the nine fatalities were combatants, a 60-year-old civilian woman, Magda Obaid, was also killed, though unclear if by the IDF or Palestinian gunmen.
  • Another of the Palestinians killed was named as Izzidin Yassin Salahat, identified by Palestinian media as a member, not of PIJ, but of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, an organisation with ties to Fatah, the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) ruling party. Salahat was also said to be a member of the PA’s security forces which cooperate with Israel in the maintenance of West Bank security.
  • No Israeli casualties were sustained in Jenin. IDF vehicles were damaged by PIJ explosives and required towing from the scene, while media clips also appear to show the downing of an IDF surveillance drone.
  • Away from Jenin, 11 suspects were arrested across the West Bank in previous raids early Wednesday morning, the IDF revealed, while two other Palestinians died following clashes with Israeli troops in East Jerusalem and the town of a-Ram.

Context: As part of the ongoing “Operation Breakwater”, which last year secured over 3,000 arrests and thwarted over 500 attacks, Israel has this year continued to launch raids into the West Bank.

  • January 2nd saw violent clashes between troops and militants in the village of Kafr-Dan, near Jenin, while January 11th witnessed another raid in the Balata refugee camp. January 16th then saw 14-year-old Palestinian Khaled Lutfi Khmour killed during a raid on the Dheisheh refugee camp, south of Bethlehem.
  • The latest events bring the total Palestinians killed in 2023 so far to 29, the vast majority classified as combatants.
  • 2022 saw the highest number of West Bank fatalities since the height of the Second Intifada in 2004. Over 150 Palestinians were killed- also mostly combatants, according to the IDF.
  • December polling by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank showed support for Abbas’s leadership at 23%, with 72% showing broad support for more independent terrorist organisations.
  • The influence of PIJ, in particular, has grown, with crucial support from Iran. Having long armed and financed both Hamas and PIJ in Gaza, Iran has turned greater attention to growing the capacity and influence of proxies in the West Bank in the last 12 months.
  • Jenin continues to be a locus of conflict and an intense concentration of Palestinian terror. The “Jenin Brigade” has seen members of multiple rival organisations forego sectarian division and collect in a loose affiliation, locally semi-autonomous from their respective organisation’s command structure.
  • Regarding Ramallah’s decision to cease cooperation with Israel, “Security coordination with the occupation government no longer exists as of now,” said Deputy PA Prime Minister Nabil Abu Rudeineh, in a statement avoiding explicit mention of the possibility of its future return.
  • Operation Breakwater has been partially motivated by lax or ineffectual PA security efforts in any case. In Jenin, for example, security forces have long refrained from conducting security patrols even on the refugee camp’s periphery.
  • In Gaza, no group claimed responsibility for the rocket fire, though the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, admitted firing anti-aircraft weapons and ground-to-air missiles at Israeli aircraft. Both Israel and Hamas continue to favour the maintenance of relative de-escalation, with messages to that effect already passed to the mediating Egyptians.

Looking ahead: Egyptian mediation notwithstanding, the scale of the Jenin raid makes further revenge attacks likely. More rocket launches are possible, while the Temple Mount is another potential flashpoint today.

  • Israel is almost certain to respond to any such attack. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office released a statement which read: “Netanyahu made it clear that Israel is not looking to escalate, but instructed the security forces to prepare for any scenario in the various arenas to ensure the safety of Israeli citizens.”
  • The IDF has raised the military’s state of readiness and a reinforcement of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence is being discussed.
  • It remains unclear how the PA’s announcement will be implemented on the ground. It has announced the end of security coordination on several occasions over the last few years without following through on the ground, before formally resuming cooperation following US and Israeli pressure.
  • The US criticised the move and will be keen to support de-escalation ahead of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s arrival in Israel on Monday. Blinken will hold talks with Netanyahu and other Israeli officials and is then due to proceed to Ramallah on Tuesday.

January 23, 2023

Negev Forum’s first meeting

Israeli Foreign Ministry Director Alon Ushpiz and 20 other Israeli officials joined counterparts from Morocco, Bahrain, the UAE, Egypt, and the US in Abu Dhabi for the first official meeting of the Negev Forum’s working groups.

  • A total of 150 participants met in what organisers say was the largest gathering of Israeli and Arab officials since the 1991 Madrid Summit.
  • Israeli ministries represented included defence, intelligence, economy, agriculture, energy, health, tourism, and education. Officials from the National Security Council and the Water Authority were also present.
  • Amidst a week of domestic political tension and recrimination, the forum presented a rare opportunity for bipartisan celebration. Opposition leader Yair Lapid described images from the summit as “extremely moving” and tweeted that “our vision of a ‘statesmanship of connections’ is taking form and is bringing the Middle East to new achievements of regional stability and cooperation.”
  • Away from the Forum, new Foreign Minister Eli Cohen spoke with UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on Tuesday. Cohen then joined Economy Minister Nik Barkat in meeting with UK minister for the Middle East region Lord Ahmed in Jerusalem on Wednesday, with discussions focussing on regional security and the long hoped-for free trade deal between the UK and Israel.

The Negev Forum was a 2022 initiative of the US and then-Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, designed to create a “permanent forum” to deepen the Abraham Accords, strengthen Arab-Israeli ties, and address issues of mutual concern.

  • Its inaugural meeting, attended by the Foreign Ministers of all members, was held in March last year in Sde Boker, followed by subsequent meetings in June and October.
  • The Working Groups are divided into six issue areas-
    • Regional security
    • Clean energy
    • Food and water security
    • Health
    • Tourism
    • Education and coexistence.
  • It can already point to its achievements in increased tourism and direct flights between Israel and the Arab members, as well as the expansion of trade and academic and cultural exchange.
  • Israel currently chairs the education and coexistence group, and co-chairs the food and water security team with Morocco.
  • Officials stressed the importance of the latter group in the context of the continued disruption of the global supply of grain and other vital ingredients caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • Israeli Foreign Ministry officials stressed that the decision of all other Forum states to publicly criticise Minister Ben Gvir’s recent visit to the Temple Mount would have no bearing on discussions, and further signs of the increased cooperation between Israel and the UAE were evident during and beyond the Forum.
  • This week, Israel and UAE held their first official financial dialogue meeting (virtually). Shira Greenberg, chief economist and director of state revenue, research, and international affairs at the Israeli Ministry of Finance joined Younis Haji Al Khoori, under-secretary of the UAE’s Ministry of Finance, to discuss opportunities for financial cooperation.
  • The UAE also announced this week that it will introduce Holocaust education at both the primary and secondary level.
  • Jordan continues to decline invitations to attend the Forum, citing the non-inclusion of the Palestinians. A US State Department official this week described the ongoing absence of Jordanian officials as constituting an “empty chair at the table”.
  • US officials have been keen to persuade Amman to participate, with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken raising the issue once more on a phone call with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi last Friday.
  • Alongside Egyptian overtures to Ramallah, the question of Palestinian involvement was also discussed last July during President Biden’s meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, with the latter said to have confirmed to Biden that his government was not interested in participating under current conditions.
  • The US continues to update Palestinian officials on the forum’s discussions, and an idea floated last year was that Jordan and the Palestinians would join the working groups in an observer capacity.
  • The US stressed that the forum’s work still sought to benefit the Palestinians: “You’ll likely see projects that are not targeted specifically at the Palestinians per se,” said an official, “but broader regional projects that [they] will be able to benefit from just like the other countries involved…”
  • Although Israeli-Palestinian peace is not a formal priority of the forum, its Regional Cooperation Framework (agreed by the Bennett-Lapid government in November 2022 but only released this week) did express the ambition that its work could be “harnessed to create momentum in Israeli-Palestinian relations, towards a negotiated resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and as part of efforts to achieve a just, lasting and comprehensive peace.”
  • Ushpiz, however, said: “Our line is very clear and my instructions going in were very clear ­- the Negev forum is about strengthening regional integration and improving people’s lives and we don’t want it to engage in political discussions about the Palestinian issue.”
  • Analyst Barak Ravid cites Israeli officials disclosing that several of the participating Arab states had wanted the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to be mentioned in the meeting’s closing statement but that these proposals were rejected by Israeli officials.
  • Hamas spokesman Hazem Qasem, meanwhile, condemned the Arab states’ participation as an “insistence on the sin of their normalisation with the Occupation State”.

The forum’s next meeting – at the “Annual Ministerial” level – will take place in Morocco in the Spring.

  • By that time, Prime Minister Netanyahu will hope to have made his first official visit to the UAE.
  • According to reports, officials in Washington plan to invite the Foreign Minister of an unnamed and as yet uninvolved Muslim African state.

January 18, 2023

Hamas releases hostage video

Hamas released a video recording of Avera Mengistu who has been imprisoned by Hamas for the last eight years after he crossed the border fence into the Gaza Strip in 2014.

  • In the short clip he is seen on camera saying: “I am the prisoner Avera Mengistu. How much longer will I be here, I and my friends, in captivity after long and painful years? Where are the Israeli state and people to care about our fate?”
  • The video also quotes outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi, saying that he regretted having failed to bring the MIAs and civilian captives home before the end of his tenure.
  • The Hamas video then shows footage from the IDF handover ceremony, with the message: “Your predecessor left you lies.”
  • The clip was being studied by Israeli experts to ascertain its authenticity. It appears to be the first indication of proof that the Israeli civilian is still alive eight years into his incarceration.
  • Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the clip saying: “Israel has not ceased its efforts to bring back Avera Mengistu and our other captives and MIAs. Yesterday we received additional confirmation of what we have known all along – that Avera is alive. He is a young man, not in the best of health, and Hamas is entirely responsible for his fate.”
  • The Mengistu family issued a statement: “It’s more urgent for us to get him back than to see him in a video. This is further proof that he is alive. The state needs to act quickly to bring him home. He appears to be healthy and taken care of. There’s no reason for him to remain in prison for even one day longer. Beyond that, it was very moving to see him. This is the first time that we’ve seen him.”

The release of the recording appears to have been deliberately timed to coincide with the first day of the new IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi.

  • The assessment in Israel is that the release was designed to divert attention from the occasion and embarrass the IDF.
  • However, by releasing the video for “free” others have concluded that the recording attests to the pressure Hamas is feeling. In the past such videos confirming “proof of life” have come at a price. For example, Israel released several female Palestinian prisoners before Hamas agreed to release a video recording of Gilad Shalit.
  • According to Mengistu’s family he suffered from mental health issues and crossed over into the Gaza Strip on his own volition, before being captured and held by Hamas. He went missing on September 7, 2014, leaving his home in Ashkelon with only a rucksack, walking ten km to the border and crossing the fence and entering the Gaza Strip.
  • Last summer Hamas released a similar video of Hisham al-Sayed, the second Israeli citizen held captive by Hamas, who also crossed the border into the Gaza Strip in 2015.
  • In addition Hamas still hold the remains of Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, IDF soldiers killed in 2014.
  • Beyond assessing that the footage is authentic, questions remain as when it was filmed.
  • Foreign Minister Eli Cohen is sending letters to the Pope, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the Red Cross president, and the head of the World Health Organisation asking them to intercede to secure the release of Mengistu and the other captives.

The video suggests Hamas is keen to reach an agreement with Israel for a prisoner exchange deal.

  • As with most aspects of Israel’s approach to the Gaza Strip, negotiations over a potential deal are facilitated by the Egyptians, who reiterated this morning that they are ready to renew their role.
  • Israel will need to appoint a new chief negotiator after Yaron Blum resigned at the end of October.
  • Hamas continues to demand that Israel release several dozen murderers and prisoners who were released in the Gilad Shalit deal and re-arrested on terror charges.
  • Hamas’s aim is to restart a public debate in Israel and pressure the government to move forward with a prisoner exchange deal.

January 18, 2023

Hamas release video of Israel civilian held captive

What happened: Hamas released a video recording of Avera Mengistu who has been imprisoned by Hamas for the last eight years after he crossed the border fence into the Gaza Strip in 2014.

  • In the short clip he is seen on camera saying: “I am the prisoner Avera Mengistu. How much longer will I be here, I and my friends, in captivity after long and painful years? Where are the Israeli state and people to care about our fate?”
  • The video also quotes outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi, saying that he regretted having failed to bring the MIAs and civilian captives home before the end of his tenure.
  • The Hamas video then shows footage from the IDF handover ceremony, with the message: “Your predecessor left you lies.”
  • The clip was being studied by Israeli experts to ascertain its authenticity. It appears to be the first indication of proof that the Israeli civilian is still alive eight years into his incarceration.
  • Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the clip saying: “Israel has not ceased its efforts to bring back Avera Mengistu and our other captives and MIAs. Yesterday we received additional confirmation of what we have known all along – that Avera is alive. He is a young man, not in the best of health, and Hamas is entirely responsible for his fate.”
  • The Mengistu family issued a statement: “It’s more urgent for us to get him back than to see him in a video. This is further proof that he is alive. The state needs to act quickly to bring him home. He appears to be healthy and taken care of. There’s no reason for him to remain in prison for even one day longer. Beyond that, it was very moving to see him. This is the first time that we’ve seen him.”

Context: The release of the recording appears to have been deliberately timed to coincide with the first day of the new IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi.

  • The assessment in Israel is that the release was designed to divert attention from the occasion and embarrass the IDF.
  • However, by releasing the video for “free” others have concluded that the recording attests to the pressure Hamas is feeling. In the past such videos confirming “proof of life” have come at a price. For example, Israel released several female Palestinian prisoners before Hamas agreed to release a video recording of Gilad Shalit.
  • According to Mengistu’s family he suffered from mental health issues and crossed over into the Gaza Strip on his own volition, before being captured and held by Hamas. He went missing on September 7, 2014, leaving his home in Ashkelon with only a rucksack, walking ten km to the border and crossing the fence and entering the Gaza Strip.
  • Last summer Hamas released a similar video of Hisham al-Sayed, the second Israeli citizen held captive by Hamas, who also crossed the border into the Gaza Strip in 2015.
  • In addition Hamas still hold the remains of Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, IDF soldiers killed in 2014.
  • Beyond assessing that the footage is authentic, questions remain as when it was filmed.
  • Foreign Minister Eli Cohen is sending letters to the Pope, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the Red Cross president, and the head of the World Health Organisation asking them to intercede to secure the release of Mengistu and the other captives.

Looking ahead: The video suggests Hamas is keen to reach an agreement with Israel for a prisoner exchange deal.

  • As with most aspects of Israel’s approach to the Gaza Strip, negotiations over a potential deal are facilitated by the Egyptians, who reiterated this morning that they are ready to renew their role.
  • Israel will need to appoint a new chief negotiator after Yaron Blum resigned at the end of October.
  • Hamas continues to demand that Israel release several dozen murderers and prisoners who were released in the Gilad Shalit deal and re-arrested on terror charges.
  • Hamas’s aim is to restart a public debate in Israel and pressure the government to move forward with a prisoner exchange deal.

January 13, 2023

Negev Forum continues to build on regional cooperation

What happened: Israeli Foreign Ministry Director Alon Ushpiz and 20 other Israeli officials joined counterparts from Morocco, Bahrain, the UAE, Egypt, and the US in Abu Dhabi for the first official meeting of the Forum’s working groups.

  • A total of 150 participants met in what organisers say was the largest gathering of Israeli and Arab officials since the 1991 Madrid Summit.
  • Israeli ministries represented included defence, intelligence, economy, agriculture, energy, health, tourism, and education. Officials from the National Security Council and the Water Authority were also present.
  • Amidst a week of domestic political tension and recrimination, the forum presented a rare opportunity for bipartisan celebration. Opposition leader Yair Lapid described images from the summit as “extremely moving” and tweeted that “our vision of a ‘statesmanship of connections’ is taking form and is bringing the Middle East to new achievements of regional stability and cooperation.”
  • Away from the Forum, new Foreign Minister Eli Cohen spoke with UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on Tuesday. Cohen then joined Economy Minister Nik Barkat in meeting with UK minister for the Middle East region Lord Ahmed in Jerusalem on Wednesday, with discussions focussing on regional security and the long hoped-for free trade deal between the UK and Israel.

Context: The Negev Forum was a 2022 initiative of the US and then-Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, designed to create a “permanent forum” to deepen the Abraham Accords, strengthen Arab-Israeli ties, and address issues of mutual concern.

  • Its inaugural meeting, attended by the Foreign Ministers of all members, was held in March last year in Sde Boker, followed by subsequent meetings in June and October.
  • The Working Groups are divided into six issue areas-
    • Regional security
    • Clean energy
    • Food and water security
    • Health
    • Tourism
    • Education and coexistence.
  • It can already point to its achievements in increased tourism and direct flights between Israel and the Arab members, as well as the expansion of trade and academic and cultural exchange.
  • Israel currently chairs the education and coexistence group, and co-chairs the food and water security team with Morocco.
  • Officials stressed the importance of the latter group in the context of the continued disruption of the global supply of grain and other vital ingredients caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • Israeli Foreign Ministry officials stressed that the decision of all other Forum states to publicly criticise Minister Ben Gvir’s recent visit to the Temple Mount would have no bearing on discussions, and further signs of the increased cooperation between Israel and the UAE were evident during and beyond the Forum.
  • This week, Israel and UAE held their first official financial dialogue meeting (virtually). Shira Greenberg, chief economist and director of state revenue, research, and international affairs at the Israeli Ministry of Finance joined Younis Haji Al Khoori, under-secretary of the UAE’s Ministry of Finance, to discuss opportunities for financial cooperation.
  • The UAE also announced this week that it will introduce Holocaust education at both the primary and secondary level.

“Empty chairs”

  • Jordan continues to decline invitations to attend the Forum, citing the non-inclusion of the Palestinians. A US State Department official this week described the ongoing absence of Jordanian officials as constituting an “empty chair at the table”.
  • US officials have been keen to persuade Amman to participate, with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken raising the issue once more on a phone call with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi last Friday.
  • Alongside Egyptian overtures to Ramallah, the question of Palestinian involvement was also discussed last July during President Biden’s meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, with the latter said to have confirmed to Biden that his government was not interested in participating under current conditions.
  • The US continues to update Palestinian officials on the forum’s discussions, and an idea floated last year was that Jordan and the Palestinians would join the working groups in an observer capacity.
  • The US stressed that the forum’s work still sought to benefit the Palestinians: “You’ll likely see projects that are not targeted specifically at the Palestinians per se,” said an official, “but broader regional projects that [they] will be able to benefit from just like the other countries involved…”
  • Although Israeli-Palestinian peace is not a formal priority of the forum, its Regional Cooperation Framework (agreed by the Bennett-Lapid government in November 2022 but only released this week) did express the ambition that its work could be “harnessed to create momentum in Israeli-Palestinian relations, towards a negotiated resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and as part of efforts to achieve a just, lasting and comprehensive peace.”
  • Ushpiz, however, said: “Our line is very clear and my instructions going in were very clear ­- the Negev forum is about strengthening regional integration and improving people’s lives and we don’t want it to engage in political discussions about the Palestinian issue.”
  • Analyst Barak Ravid cites Israeli officials disclosing that several of the participating Arab states had wanted the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to be mentioned in the meeting’s closing statement but that these proposals were rejected by Israeli officials.
  • Hamas spokesman Hazem Qasem, meanwhile, condemned the Arab states’ participation as an “insistence on the sin of their normalisation with the Occupation State”.

Looking ahead: The forum’s next meeting – at the “Annual Ministerial” level – will take place in Morocco in the Spring.

  • By that time, Prime Minister Netanyahu will hope to have made his first official visit to the UAE.
  • According to reports, officials in Washington plan to invite the Foreign Minister of an unnamed and as yet uninvolved Muslim African state.

January 9, 2023

Security Cabinet discusses international lawfare

Israel’s new Security Cabinet convened for its first meeting and issued a range of responses to the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) decision to target Israel in international forums.

  • Following a Palestinian initiative, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution for the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to open an investigation into Israel’s “prolonged occupation, settlement and annexation of Palestinian territory.”
  • In response, the Security Cabinet decided:
    • To use around NIS 139 million (£23.6m) of PA tax funds to compensates the families of victims murdered in Palestinian terrorist attacks, offsetting the payments made by the PA to terrorists and their families last year.
    • To prevent illegal Palestinian construction plans in Area C (where, according to the Oslo agreements, Israel retains full civil and security control).
    • To revoke Palestinian officials’ VIP access if they are leading the political and legal campaigns against Israel.
  • Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich commented yesterday saying, “Nothing could be more just than deducting funds from the PA, which acted in support of terrorism, and to turn them over to victims of terrorism. The government of Israel is changing its policies, and on this day we are beginning to make a correction. There isn’t any consolation here for the families of the murdered, but there is justice.”
  • Yesterday Israel suspended Palestinian foreign minister’s Riyad al-Maliki’s VIP pass. He was briefly detained when entering via Jordan and his VIP travel card confiscated.
  • Last week Karim Younis, the longest-serving security prisoner in Israel, was released from prison. An Israeli-Arab affiliated with Fatah, he was convicted in 1983 for the murder of IDF soldier Avraham Bromberg.
  • Since his release there have been days of celebration in his village of Arara in northern Israel, where he has been visited by prominent religious and Arab political figures. Three PA officials who visited him also had their VIP travel documents revoked.
  • In addition, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has also instructed police to remove Palestinian flags from public spaces, seen prominently amid the celebrations in Arara.

The new government is emphasising zero tolerance for support for terrorism and lawfare initiatives that seek to delegitimise Israel in international forums.

  • Israeli law does not outlaw Palestinian flags, but police and soldiers have the right to remove them in cases where they deem there is a threat to public order. Under Ben-Gvir’s leadership, the definition of “a threat to public order” could be more broadly interpreted.
  • In addition, the family of the murdered Bromberg are appealing to Interior Minister Aryeh Deri to rescind Karim’s Israeli citizenship.
  • Palestinian officials are concerned that the withholding of the tax income will have an adverse effect on the Palestinian economy, which is already struggling to meet its commitments in paying public service employees.
  • As of now the Palestinian security forces are maintaining security coordination with the IDF, as both sides share concern over Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Iranian efforts to activate terror cells in the West Bank. However, some Israeli officials are concerned that the PA will be less motivated to make arrests and take action against terrorists. 

Israel has not yet decided what its approach will be to the ICJ, or if further steps will be taken against the PA.

  • Similarly, the PA is also assessing its next move and whether to ramp up further pressure on Israel by looking to join other international forums.
  • Israel will face similar challenges Younis’s cousin, Maher Younis, and his co-conspirator released from prison next week as scheduled.

January 9, 2023

Security Cabinet announces measures against Palestinian Authority

What happened: Israel’s new Security Cabinet convened for its first meeting and issued a range of responses to the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) decision to target Israel in international forums.

  • Following a Palestinian initiative, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution for the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to open an investigation into Israel’s “prolonged occupation, settlement and annexation of Palestinian territory.”
  • In response, the Security Cabinet decided:
    • To use around NIS 139 million (£23.6m) of PA tax funds to compensates the families of victims murdered in Palestinian terrorist attacks, offsetting the payments made by the PA to terrorists and their families last year.
    • To prevent illegal Palestinian construction plans in Area C (where, according to the Oslo agreements, Israel retains full civil and security control).
    • To revoke Palestinian officials’ VIP access if they are leading the political and legal campaigns against Israel.
  • Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich commented yesterday saying, “Nothing could be more just than deducting funds from the PA, which acted in support of terrorism, and to turn them over to victims of terrorism. The government of Israel is changing its policies, and on this day we are beginning to make a correction. There isn’t any consolation here for the families of the murdered, but there is justice.”
  • Yesterday Israel suspended Palestinian foreign minister’s Riyad al-Maliki’s VIP pass. He was briefly detained when entering via Jordan and his VIP travel card confiscated.
  • Last week Karim Younis, the longest-serving security prisoner in Israel, was released from prison. An Israeli-Arab affiliated with Fatah, he was convicted in 1983 for the murder of IDF soldier Avraham Bromberg.
  • Since his release there have been days of celebration in his village of Arara in northern Israel, where he has been visited by prominent religious and Arab political figures. Three PA officials who visited him also had their VIP travel documents revoked.
  • In addition, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has also instructed police to remove Palestinian flags from public spaces, seen prominently amid the celebrations in Arara.

Context: The new government is emphasising zero tolerance for support for terrorism and lawfare initiatives that seek to delegitimise Israel in international forums.

  • Israeli law does not outlaw Palestinian flags, but police and soldiers have the right to remove them in cases where they deem there is a threat to public order. Under Ben-Gvir’s leadership, the definition of “a threat to public order” could be more broadly interpreted.
  • In addition, the family of the murdered Bromberg are appealing to Interior Minister Aryeh Deri to rescind Karim’s Israeli citizenship.
  • Palestinian officials are concerned that the withholding of the tax income will have an adverse effect on the Palestinian economy, which is already struggling to meet its commitments in paying public service employees.
  • As of now the Palestinian security forces are maintaining security coordination with the IDF, as both sides share concern over Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Iranian efforts to activate terror cells in the West Bank. However, some Israeli officials are concerned that the PA will be less motivated to make arrests and take action against terrorists. 

Looking ahead: Israel has not yet decided what its approach will be to the ICJ, or if further steps will be taken against the PA.

  • Similarly, the PA is also assessing its next move and whether to ramp up further pressure on Israel by looking to join other international forums.
  • Israel will face similar challenges Younis’s cousin, Maher Younis, and his co-conspirator released from prison next week as scheduled.

December 16, 2022

300 Palestinians arrested over alleged Hamas affiliation

Reports suggest around 300 Palestinians with alleged Hamas affiliation were arrested in the West Bank this week .

  • The arrests have been interpreted both as a sign of the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) insecurity over its weakening authority in the West Bank and as an effort to persuade the US and international community that it still remains in control.
  • Senior Hamas official Hussam Badran called the arrests a “stab in the back of the Palestinian national unity.”
  • While according to Lior Ackerman, senior fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy, Reichman University, “The PA of the end of 2022 is an entity without governance, very weak and lacking any vision or leadership strategy.”
  • According to the Palestinian Lawyers for Justice group, PA security forces have arrested or summoned for interrogation more than 500 Palestinian activists since the beginning of the year.
  • Also this week, Relatives of the Palestinian activist Nizar Banat announced that they are to file a case against Mahmoud Abbas’s PA at the International Criminal Court (ICC) over his death.
  • Banat, a long-time critic of the PA and Abbas, died following his arrest by Palestinian forces in June 2021. An autopsy showed he had suffered extensive beating.
  • Fourteen members of the PA security services were arrested over the incident, before being released on bail earlier this year.
  • The family’s case – which the ICC is not obliged to agree to hear – accuses seven PA figures of responsibility for Banat’s death.
  • It represents the first time the court has been presented with a case filed by Palestinians against Palestinians.
  • Hamas marked its 35th anniversary celebrations. Addressing the crowd remotely, Hamas’ military commander Mohammed al-Deif criticised the PA’s policy of security cooperation with Israel and called instead for support for the Lions’ Den group in Nablus, the Balata Brigades, and militia in Jenin with which Israel has been engaged in regular operations.
  • Yehiyeh Sinwar, Hamas’ leader in Gaza  said, “We have to give the chance to ignite the resistance in the West Bank.”
  • At the same event, Hamas displayed what it claimed was the assault rifle of Hadar Goldin, the Givati Brigade soldier killed in Gaza, along with his colleague Oron Shaul, during Operation Protective Edge in 2014.
  • Hamas retains both soldiers’ bodies and is also believed to be holding captive two Israelis: Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, both missing since crossing the border into Gaza in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
  • Sinwar also used his remarks to warn Israel that the window was rapidly closing for it to negotiate the return of Goldin and Shaul’s bodies.
  • In parallel the IDF this week also disclosed evidence of three rocket sites close to schools in Gaza City. According to their intelligence, staff at the Mo’ath Bin Jabal, the Khalil Al Nobani Secondary Female, and the Al-Furqan Public Schools were working in collaboration with Hamas.
  • An IDF statement said that the revelation provided further proof that Hamas ” uses the residents of the Gaza Strip, and in these cases innocent children, as human protectors.”

The week’s events show remaining hostility between Fatah and Hamas.

  • The events call into question the October reconciliation agreement, signed in Algeria by both Hamas and Fatah, designed to lessen conflict between the PA and Hamas.
  • Some Palestinian analysts speculated that Abbas had deliberately sought to sabotage the reconciliation talks.
  • Whilst the last few months have seen an increase in Israeli operations in the West Bank, relative quiet has prevailed on the Gazan front. However, in early December the IDF hit Hamas sites in Gaza in response to a single rocket fire directed at Southern Israel.
  • Although the rockets were thought to have been fired not by Hamas but by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Israel followed its policy of holding Hamas responsible for all terror emanating from Gaza.
  • Latest polling from the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) showed declining support for Abbas, with his decree forming a high council for the judiciary under his own control proving particularly unpopular.
  • Palestinian satisfaction (both West Bank and Gaza) with Abbas’s leadership was at 23%.
  • Other headline numbers from the poll showed substantial support for armed factions rival to the PA – 72% were in favour of independent groups like Lion’s Den.

The further erosion of PA control, together with increasing local popularity and Iranian support could see West Bank militias continue operations against Israelis, leading in turn to further Israeli raids in the West Bank under “Operation Breakwater”.

  • With Palestinian elections remaining a distant prospect, and with no clear succession plan for the 87-year-old Abbas, political disunity amongst the Palestinians is likely to continue.
  • Hamas deputy chief Khalil al-Hayya recently suggested that Algeria was set to host another series of reconciliation talks at the end of December.
  • Hamas’s failure to return the bodies of Goldin and Shaul make it unlikely that Israel will relax the opening of Gaza to humanitarian supplies and other material.

December 9, 2022

Counter-terror raid in Jenin yesterday

What happened? Three suspected Palestinian militants were killed during an Israeli counter-terrorism raid in a refugee camp in the West Bank city of Jenin yesterday.

  • The IDF said that its forces entered the camp to arrest terrorist suspect Khaled a-Hija when its troops came under “accurate fire” and responded in kind.
  • The local wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) later claimed responsibility for engaging Israeli troops with gunfire and explosives.
  • The dead have been named as Sidqi Zakarneh and Tariq al-Damej, both 29, and Atta Shalabi, 46
  • Khaled a-Hija was apprehended, as were suspects Ahmad Jaradat and Daajef Bages in other raids in Jenin.
  • The IDF confirmed that forces also conducted separate counter-terrorism raids in Bethlehem and in the West Bank towns of Abu Dis, Bitut, Silwad, Anata, Ein, Nabi Saleh, and Bayt Rima.
  • Further suspects were arrested in Hebron, Ramallah, Mahafiaa, Jabal Shamali and Bayt Furik, and illegal vehicles confiscated in the towns of Yata and Khirbet Carme.
  • Near the West Bank village of Aboud, 16-year-old Diaa Muhammad Shafiq al-Rimawi died in an incident in which the IDF says its troops opened fire after stones and bottles of paint were thrown at them.
  • Elsewhere in Jenin, troops arrested the father of Moujahid Mahmoud Hamed, who died after firing on an IDF post near the settlement of Ofra on Wednesday.
  • The IDF reported that no injuries to its troops were sustained during the various operations.

Jenin, in the Palestinian Authority-controlled Area A, has long been regarded as a hotbed of militant activity and is a frequent flashpoint for clashes between militants and the IDF.

  • Yesterday’s events echo similar incidents last week in which troops returned fire after being fired upon during an arrest raid in the city. Members of both PIJ and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade were killed.
  • These incidents follow further fatal West Bank clashes between Palestinians and the IDF in the last month, including in Beit Ummar near Hebron, and in Beit Rima and Al-Mughayyir, both near Ramallah.
  • The past year has seen a significant increase in both Palestinian terrorism and Israeli counter-terrorism operations in the West Bank.
  • The period has seen over 280 terror attacks (up from 91 in 2021), claiming the lives of 30 Israelis.
  • GazaHaving long armed and supported both Hamas and PIJ in Gaza, Iran has turned greater attention to growing the capacity and influence of proxies in the West Bank in the last 12 months.
  • PIJ in the West Bank has received significant funding from Tehran, which it has used to establish a series of local battalions whose personnel includes members of other, ostensibly rival, Palestinian factions.
  • Late November saw the first bomb attacks in Israel since 2016, with explosives in two locations near the entrance to Jerusalem claiming the lives of two Israelis.
  • In the face of this increase in what the IDF terms “popular terrorism” emanating from the territory, it has responded with “Operation Breakwater”.
  • 3,000 arrests have been carried out and over 500 attacks thwarted, according to Israeli Military Intelligence.
  • Analysts estimate that around half of the IDF’s troop resources are currently allocated to addressing West Bank threats.
  • Some 150 Palestinians have been killed, the majority during clashes with the IDF.
  • There has also been a significant rise in nationalist-motivated crime by right-wing Israelis against Palestinians.

Despite ongoing security coordination between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, the pattern of the past year points to the latter’s declining authority in the West Bank.

  • Its policies of formal opposition to armed resistance and cooperation with Israel security are said to be reducing the Authority’s already waning popular appeal.
  • On Wednesday Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issued a statement affirming, though with caveats, his commitment to these policies.
  • “Security coordination is a part of the agreements. When it comes to security coordination our approach is to fight terrorism no matter where,” Abbas said. “I do not support armed Palestinian resistance, but that could change. It could change — tomorrow, the next day or some other time. Everything changes.”
  • The influence of Hamas, PIJ, and other armed groups, meanwhile, continues to grow.
  • The impact of the likely appointments of far-right figures Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir to portfolios with authority over civilian administration in the West Bank and the West Bank Border Police, respectively, remains to be seen. Outgoing Defence Minister Benny Gantz recently warned of the chances of an even greater escalation accompanying Ben Gvir’s appointment.

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