Israel, the UK and the world

April 21, 2023

Israel deepens ties with two of Iran’s neighbours

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan this week, in a move to deepen Israel’s growing ties with the Caucasus and Central Asian regions.

Cohen went first to Azerbaijan, where he was accompanied by 20 representatives of the Israeli cyber, defence, homeland security, water management, and agriculture sectors. The delegation met with representatives of both the private and governmental Azeri sectors.
Discussions were also held on connecting Israel’s natural gas deposits to Azerbaijan’s pipeline, increasing the potential for delivery of Israeli gas to Europe.
Azeri officials told Cohen of the country’s desire to expand Israeli imports to include the cyber and solar energy fields. Agreements were also reached which will see the two countries cooperate on space exploration.
After their meeting, Cohen thanked President Ilham Aliyev for the opening of the Azeri embassy in Tel Aviv last month and confirmed that they had discussed “our shared strategic regional challenges, especially regional security and the fight against terrorism.”
Cohen then proceeded to Turkmenistan, becoming the first Israeli Foreign Minister to visit the Central Asian state in 29 years.
Yesterday Cohen formally opened Israel’s first permanent embassy in the capital of Ashgabat, also meeting with President Serdar Berdimuhamedow.
According to the Foreign Ministry, they also discussed expanding cooperation in cyber-tech, agriculture, and water technology.
“Turkmenistan is an extremely important country in Central Asia and an energy powerhouse in a strategic location,” said Cohen. “The opening of our permanent embassy today strengthens the relationship between the two countries.”

Context: Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are of high strategic importance, both for their location and energy resources.

Israeli-Azeri ties have been deepening for some years, Cohen’s visit following the trip made by then Defence Minister Benny Gantz last October.
Azerbaijan has become more publicly open about its ties with Israel in recent years, breaking a tradition of opacity based on a reluctance to antagonise its Iranian neighbour.
In opening its Tel Aviv embassy, and recently appointing its first permanent ambassador, it became the first majority Shiite Muslim state to do so.
Commercial ties between the two countries are mutually significant. Israel imports 30% of its oil from Azerbaijan, while Israel provided 69% of Baku’s major arms imports from 2016-2020: 17% of Israel’s arms exports over the period.
Israel also provided valuable support to the Azeris during the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with Armenia, after which Azeri-Iranian tensions increased, with Tehran carrying out provocative military exercises on the Azeri border.
Multiple reports have suggested that the Azeris grant Israel use of its territory for the launching of reconnaissance missions into Iran, and that any future Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear programme could benefit from a similar Azeri base.
Israel has operated a temporary embassy facility in Turkmenistan for the past ten years.
“This is a visit to the lion’s maw, a country that is between Russia and Iran, and everything that that implies,” said one member of Cohen’s diplomatic party.
Moscow’s influence in Central Asia, which continued to be considerable even following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, has shown signs of decreasing in the last year to eighteen months.
None of the Republics have backed its invasion of Ukraine and all have complied with sanctions on the Putin government.
Turkey, with whom Israel has a complex relationship, is another key regional player, enjoying close linguistic-cultural and political ties with the Central Asian states, coordinating relations through the five-member Organization of Turkic States.
With Europe eager to divest from Russian energy, Turkey is also seen as a key gateway to supplying the continent with both oil and natural gas from alternative sources, including both Israel and Central Asian and Caucus states like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Any advances to access to the gas pipeline must go through Turkey.
Israel’s desire to supply Europe has been hampered by technical and diplomatic hurdles since the discovery of Israeli gas fields in the Mediterranean
Israel and Turkmenistan established diplomatic relations 30 years ago, and the new embassy is now Israel’s third in Central Asia, joining those in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The opening of a permanent embassy in Ashgabat is of symbolic importance. Located a mere 15 kilometres from the Iranian border, the new embassy becomes Israel’s closest diplomatic mission to the Islamic Republic.
Notably, ambassadors from other states united by concern over Iran, such as the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and the US, were present at the embassy opening.
Although ties remain stronger with Tehran than they do in Azerbaijan, the last few years have seen Turkmenistan pivot more towards Iran’s rivals in the Gulf States, with several of whom Israel enjoys increasingly close relations.
Turkmenistan is a virtually closed state, regarded by human rights observers as a repressive dictatorship and notable for widescale abuses and corruption.
Like the other Central Asian states, it continues to face the effects of Islamist terror, with a number of its citizens joining both al-Qaeda and Islamic State in recent years.
The return of the Taliban to neighbouring Afghanistan has only heightened concerns about the Jihadi influence, and in December 2022 Israel hosted a delegation from the Central Asian states to share knowledge on border and cyber security.

Looking ahead: In a sign of the high value placed on the Azeri relationship, Israeli President Isaac Herzog is likely to visit Azerbaijan by the end of May, with the Azeri Foreign Minister also likely to make a return visit to Israel soon.

Berdimuhamedov indicated that he was considering following Azerbaijan in ordering the opening of a Turkmenistan embassy in Israel soon.

March 31, 2023

Syria blames Israel for second night of airstrikes

Syrian officials claim that Israeli aircraft attacked a military position just outside Damascus last night.
According to the Syrian military, they responded with anti-aircraft fire that intercepted some of the missiles, fired from the area of the Golan Heights just after midnight.
This is the second night in a row in which there was an attack in the Damascus area.
According to the UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the strikes targeted an arms depots for government forces and Iran-backed groups just south of Damascus.
According to Syrian opposition sources, last night’s attack first targeted a radar station and an air defence system in the Damascus area, before striking a “moving target” that was part of a convoy that was travelling towards the “security complex” in Kafr Sousa.
The Syrian foreign ministry condemned the attack and claimed this was Israel’s “attempt to escape internal fragmentation.”

According to Syrian sources this was the sixth Israeli strike on Syria this month.

As usual, Israel has not commented on these attacks. Israel does not formally claim every alleged strike but has acknowledged in the past that it carried out hundreds of strikes on military targets over the last few years in Syria.
On March 22, an Israeli strike targeted the airport in Aleppo, thought to have been used by Iran for storing weapons.
In response Iranian backed militias fired rockets at a base hosting US forces in northeast Syria, killing one American contractor. The US responded with air strikes on installations in eastern Syria that it said were affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The Kafr Sousa security complex was also targeted last month. It is considered an Iranian hub that serves as an Iranian barracks and headquarters.
In December 2022, then IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi revealed details of an Israeli strike on a specific truck in a convoy that was smuggling weapons and was targeted near the Iraq-Syria border.

Broader context: These strikes are the latest example of Israel’s continued doctrine of the ‘campaign between the wars’ aimed at thwarting Iranian weapons transfers and the entrenchment of pro-Iranian militias in Syria.

These operations are usually approved by the defence minister, who currently continues to serve under a cloud of ambiguity. Defence Minister Gallant was fired by Prime Minister Netanyahu at the beginning of the week, however was never sent a formal dismissal letter in writing, so continues to serve. There are suggestions that he will apologise to the prime minister for calling for a halt on the judicial reform at a time when the prime minister was abroad, and will then have his dismissal revoked.
Gallant, a former Maj. Gen., enjoys the support not only of the senior military commanders, but was also regarded as a trusted figure by the US administration.
The continued Israeli air force operations over the skies of Syria further highlight the crucial role of pilots, amid some of their vocal concerns over judicial reform.
Israel–US ties have been in focus the last couple of days following comments by President Biden who expressed his displeasure at the proposed judicial reforms.
Nevertheless, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen spoke on the phone last night. Among the issues discussed was the Iranian threat.
Blinken also “reiterated the continued US commitment to a two-state solution, welcomed recent efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israelis and Palestinians through meetings in Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh.”

Israeli targeting of Iranian assets in Syria is likely to continue, according to military intelligence’s risk assessment.

Today is the second Friday of Ramadan, which has so far been relatively quiet, but Israeli security forces remain on high alert over warnings of potential attacks.

March 22, 2023

Uk and Israel sign new 7 year agreement

Israel’s Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited London yesterday and alongside Foreign Secretary James Cleverly they signed, “the 2030 Roadmap for Israel-UK Bilateral Relations.”

According to the UK government, “the Roadmap contains detailed commitments for deepening cooperation across the breadth of the Israel-UK relationship, including on trade, cyber, science and tech, research and development, security, health, climate and gender.”
The agreement also includes around £20millon of joint funding commitments on technology and innovation.
The UK also “committed to working closely with Israel to tackle the scourge of antisemitism. As chair for the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance in 2024, the UK will promote fact-based knowledge of the Holocaust and strengthen media and information literacy.”
Ahead of the visit Foreign Secretary Cleverly said, “The UK-Israel relationship has already delivered huge benefits to both economies. Our trade relationship is worth around £7 billion, and there are more than 400 Israeli tech firms operating in the UK. Israeli investment into the UK drives growth and jobs, adding around £1 billion gross value to the UK economy and creating about 16,000 jobs in the last 8 years.”
In their private meeting the pair discussed the dual threats of Iran’s nuclear programme and their destabilising regional aggression. According to the UK government, “On Iran, the Foreign Ministers discussed deepening our security and defence co-operation to counter the threat posed by the regime.”
Ahead of Ramadan, and regarding Jerusalem, “the Foreign Ministers agreed on the importance of upholding the historic Status Quo of the holy sites in Jerusalem.”
Regarding Russia, Cleverly “stressed the importance of accelerating efforts to ensure Ukraine wins this war and secures a lasting peace.”
Minister Cohen said, “the international community must unite against the Iranian threat, increase sanctions, and present a viable military threat.”
Cohen also participated in a memorial ceremony alongside Lord Tariq Ahmed, the Minister for Middle East Affairs to mark the 20th anniversary of the death of the late Ambassador Shlomo Argov. He was seriously injured in a terrorist attack while serving as Israel’s ambassador to the UK in 1982.
The genesis of the roadmap was in November 2021 when Foreign Minister Lapid visited London and met with Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Minister Liz Truss.
At the time Foreign Ministers Lapid and Truss co-wrote an op-ed in The Telegraph where they declared that Israel and the UK would sign a major new agreement, “transforming our close friendship into an even closer partnership by formally agreeing a new strategic plan for the next decade spanning cyber, tech, trade and defence”. In addition, “Israel will officially become a Tier One cyber partner for the UK, recognising how much more we can achieve together as tech leaders with world-class cybersecurity expertise.”
With regard to Iran, the pair wrote: “We will also work night and day to prevent the Iranian regime from ever becoming a nuclear power. The clock is ticking, which heightens the need for close cooperation with our partners and friends to thwart Tehran’s ambitions.”
Israel and the UK had already planned to host reciprocal prime ministerial visits to mark Israel’s 75^th anniversary. Prime Minister Netanyahu is also due to visit London and meet Prime Minister Sunak this week.
Netanyahu’s visit to London will complete a series of European capitals having visited Paris, Berlin and Italy in the last month, with the Iranian threat being his top priority.
In parallel to the visit the UK yesterday announced sanctions on seven senior officials of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Five responsible for managing the IRGC’s investments and two senior commanders.
The UK government confirmed it has “sanctions in place on the IRGC in its entirety. Since October, the UK has imposed new sanctions on more than a dozen senior IRGC officials under our Iran human rights regime, most recently on a number of senior commanders on 20 February.”
Foreign Secretary Cleverly explained, they were “responsible for funding militant groups associated with the IRGC’s external operations arm, the IRGC-Quds Force. The Quds force is responsible for carrying out lethal activities outside of Iran by, for example, providing training, funding and weapons to groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. It has been accused of setting up fake companies in Syria to support the development of Quds Force activities in Syria.”
In light of the domestic turbulence, it is expected that Netanyahu will be greeted by protestors against the judicial reform.
In the months ahead Prime Minister Sunak it is anticipated to make a reciprocal visit to Israel.
Later this year Israel and the UK are expected to conclude a new upgraded free trade agreement, focus on tech and innovation. Cleverly said yesterday, “The new trade deal, by lowering barriers and championing free trade, is a key priority for both governments.”

March 20, 2023

Talks in Sharm, another shooting in Hawara

Officials from Israel, Palestinian Authority (PA), Egypt, Jordan and the US met in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Sunday.

Israel was represented on a professional level by the Director of the Shin Bet Security Service Ronen Bar and on a political level by the head of the National Security Council Tzachi Hanegbi.
The Palestinian delegation was led by PA Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh and head of Intelligence Majed Faraj.
Middle East adviser Brett McGurk represented the US alongside the foreign ministers of Jordan and Egypt.
According to Israeli media reports the Israeli delegation stressed the need to take uncompromising action against terrorism in order to prevent any escalation during and after Ramadan.
Israel and the PA reaffirmed their shared commitment to immediately refrain from taking unilateral action for a period of between three and six months. That includes an Israeli commitment to stop any discussion about building new housing units in the settlements for a four-month period, and to stop recognising unauthorised outposts for six months.
Efforts were also made to find a mechanism for Israel and the PA to cooperate and avoid any further deterioration in security for both Israelis and Palestinians.
The sides also agreed to establish a forum that would discuss Palestinian demands to receive tax funds that Israel has withheld after deducting the equivalent of terrorists’ salaries.
Meanwhile yesterday in Hawara a terrorist opened fire from point blank range at an Israeli car and injured a 30-year-old Israeli man alongside his wife.
The driver, David Stern, a resident of nearby Itamar settlement, who trains the security teams in the area, is also a US citizen and an ex-Marine. He managed to return fire and injure the terrorist, who dropped his gun and fled.
The injured terrorist was later found by IDF forces and taken for questioning.
On Saturday night a single rocket was fired from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. It fell in uninhabited territory close to the border and no one was injured. The IDF retaliated by shelling a Hamas military outpost.
Also over the weekend a senior member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) was assassinated near his home in Damascus. Ali Ramzi Al-Aswad was a senior engineer in the PIJ military wing. Israel was blamed for his death.

This meeting in Sharm was the second regional summit focusing on Israeli – Palestinian arena following Aqaba conference at the end of February.

There remains a shared Israeli – PA agenda to deescalate the situation in the West Bank and on the Israeli side.
From the Palestinian perspective the purpose of the summit was to address their security concerns particularly related to limiting IDF incursions into Palestinian cities during Ramadan.
The Israelis are keen to fully re-establish security coordination with the PA Security Forces (PASF) and for the PASF to reassert themselves as they have recently begun to do in Nablus.
The US are also keen to see calm in the West Bank and thought to encourage Israel to take confidence building measures to improve economic conditions in the West Bank.
It is possible that the PIJ operative targeted in Damascus built the bomb that exploded in Megiddo junction last week.
Meanwhile over the weekend PIJ leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah met with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. This meeting suggests further evidence of Iranian support via Hezbollah for Palestinian terror groups.
The rocket fired on Saturday night was the first in eleven days. Already this year thirty-six rockets have been fired from Gaza Strip towards Israel. Most have occurred following Palestinian fatalities as a result of an Israeli counter-terror operation in the West Bank.
In parallel, the Jerusalem municipality announced steps to help East Jerusalemites celebrate Ramadan. Street decorations can already be seen in the eastern part of the city, The municipality has also distributed food vouchers for the poor and deployed extra street cleaning. They are planning to hold several sporting and cultural activities to keep youngsters engaged over the holiday.

IDF troops in the West Bank have completed their training and preparation ahead of Ramadan.

They remain on high alert, particularly in Hawara so as to prevent any vigilante responses from settlers.
Whilst the IDF remain on alert for potential attacks they will also be taking measures to facilitate freedom of worship for Palestinians to visit Al-Aqsa on the Temple Mount.
The agreements reached in Sharm are aimed at securing quiet in the months ahead.

February 17, 2023

Israeli Foreign Minister visits Ukraine

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen pledged Israeli loan guarantees and defence assistance to Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv yesterday.

Cohen met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba before later meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In remarks delivered alongside Kuleba, Cohen said “Israel, as stated in the past, stands firmly in solidarity with the people of Ukraine.”
Cohen promised to “assist Ukraine with developing a smart early warning system” similar to that which warns Israelis of incoming rocket fire.
He also pledged $200 million in loan guarantees for healthcare and civilian infrastructure projects in Ukraine.
In his remarks, Kuleba struck a cautious tone, saying “Israel knows perfectly about our list of security and defence needs. We will be waiting for decisions to be taken.”
In their meeting, Zelensky told Cohen that Iran was a “common enemy”, while Cohen assured the Ukrainian President that Israel “supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
Together with Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodksy, Cohen also reopened the Israeli embassy in Kyiv.
Having left a one-day visit to earthquake-hit Turkey, Cohen travelled to Poland, before taking an overnight train from the border city of Przemysl to Kyiv.
He began his Ukrainian itinerary in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, the site of extensive civilian deaths from Russian shelling, where he said “We can say clearly, it is impossible to remain indifferent to the scenes and mass grave that we have seen.”
Cohen then proceeded to Babyn Yar, the ravine outside Kyiv where the Nazis and Ukrainian collaborators murdered over 30,000 across several days in 1941. Kaddish was recited and Hatikvah was sung.
Cohen is the first Israeli government minister to visit Ukraine since the Russian invasion.
For security reasons, his visit was not announced in advance, though it has been known for several weeks that such a trip was planned. He was joined in Ukraine by Foreign Ministry Director General Ronen Levy (formerly codenamed “Maoz”) and Simona Halperin, head of the ministry’s Eurasia desk.
Cohen’s warning system pledge is the clearest commitment yet from Israel that it will publicly move towards security assistance to Ukraine.
Despite condemning Russian aggression, Israel has been reluctant to accede to requests for military support from Ukraine and its Western allies.
To do so would risk damaging the deconfliction status quo that exists with Russia, with tacit Russian agreement essential in maintaining Israel’s ability to strike Iranian-sponsored terrorist targets in Syria.
On assuming office in January, Cohen angered Ukrainians and some allies by promising to “speak less” about the Russian invasion than the previous Bennett-Lapid government had done, and by holding a discussion with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov before speaking with any Ukrainian officials.
In recent weeks, reports anticipating Cohen’s visit have suggested that Zelensky had sought assurances that practical assistance would be forthcoming before agreeing to receive the Israeli Foreign Minister.
In addition to a request for $500 million in loans and its oft-repeated requests for missile defence sharing, Kyiv was said to be seeking public support for Zelensky’s November 2022 Peace Plan, including its demand for full Russian withdrawal, and an Israeli commitment to receive increased numbers of Ukrainian injured for medical treatment in Israel.
On Twitter, Cohen indicated that Israel would support Ukrainian UN peace proposals designed to ensure Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.”
Washington has been encouraging Israel to step up its involvement. During his visit to Israel in early February, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken urged greater Israeli security assistance to Ukraine.
In remarks to CNN immediately after Blinken’s departure, Netanyahu claimed to be “certainly looking into” military support, and highlighted Israeli cooperation in transferring what will eventually total 300,000 US 155-millimeter shells long stored in Israel to Ukraine.
Reports on Netanyahu’s meeting with French President Macron in Paris in early February 2023 then indicated that the Israeli Prime Minister had hinted at a willingness to expand Israel’s aid to Ukraine to include “military things”.
Hundreds of Iranian drones, including both Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series, have been deployed against Ukraine since Iranian transfers to Russia began last summer.
In November, Israel shared with NATO an intelligence dossier on Iranian drones.
Further, while Israeli sources were quick to separate last month’s Mossad deployment of quadcopter drones against the Iranian weapons facility in Isfahan from the Russia-Ukraine context, Kyiv might benefit from any reduction in Iranian capacity.
Israel, with its line of communication to both Kyiv and Moscow, has previously played the role of intermediary passing on messages between the leaders in full coordination with the US.
At the onset of the conflict, then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett engaged in discussion with both Putin and Zelensky including, he claimed recently, receiving Putin’s assurances that he would not order the killing of Zelensky.
Netanyahu recently declared himself open to playing an intermediary role but suggested that the time was not right at present.

With Russian-Iranian cooperation expected to grow, Israel will be further incentivised to assist Ukraine.

The extent to which Cohen’s commitments represent a shift in the Israeli calculus, though, remains to be seen. The promise of an early warning system is still short of the Israeli missile defence technology Ukraine covets.
Cohen also pledged Israeli assistance in post-war reconstruction.

February 3, 2023

Netanyahu meets Chad President

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met yesterday with the visiting President Mahamat Déby of Chad to formalise the two countries’ official relations by consecrating the African state’s new Ramat Gan-based embassy.

Netanyahu welcomed Déby by hailing the process as part of “Israel’s return to Africa and Africa’s return to Israel”. He noted: “We see these relations as extremely important—with a large country in the heart of Africa” and that “we have common goals of security, prosperity, and stability.”
On arrival in Israel on Tuesday night, Déby was met by Mossad chief David Barnea. The two went on to a celebratory meeting at Mossad headquarters.
In his own meeting with Déby, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant “raised the importance of narrowing the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in the Sahel region, as a key to ensuring stability, and thwarting the export of terrorism.”
Déby also met with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, with the two discussing Israel’s humanitarian work in Chad, including the Mashav programme which trains Chadian medics in emergency and trauma care.
In a further step towards normalisation with a Muslim-majority African state, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen met with Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Khartoum yesterday, and confirmed on his return that a full peace treaty was scheduled to be signed by the end of the year, once Sudan has transitioned from a military to a civilian regime.
“Today’s visit… lays the foundations for a historic peace agreement with a strategic Arab and Muslim country” and “will promote regional stability and contribute to the national security of the State of Israel,” Cohen said.

The Chadian and Sudanese moves represent a success for Netanyahu’s longstanding campaign for improved relations with both Muslim-majority and African states.

In 2016, Netanyahu became the first Israeli Prime Minister to make a diplomatic trip to Africa in decades, as he visited Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia. Later that year, Israel hosted senior ministers and officials from 13 West African states for a conference on agriculture.
In July 2021, former Chadian Prime Minister Moussa Faki Mahamat invited Israel to hold member status at the African Union, a move later revoked in a campaign led by Algeria and South Africa.
Both Netanyahu and Déby paid tribute to the latter’s father, Idriss Déby Into, who ruled Chad for more than thirty years before being killed fighting rebels in 2021.
The elder Déby had initiated the move to fully normalise Chadian relations with Israel in 2019, following decades of clandestine cooperation but official distance. In November 2018, he paid a surprise visit to Israel.
As one of the more militarily powerful members of the G5S states (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger), Chad bears much of the burden in stemming terrorism in the sub-Saharan Sahel region- a role for which it has sought Israeli support.
In 2018, Morocco (which normalised relations with Israel with the Abraham Accords in 2020) cut diplomatic ties with Iran, accusing it of using Hezbollah forces in the Sahel to support the Polisario Front group which fights an armed struggle for an independent Western Sahara.
Israel has no embassy in Chad, and it remains to seen if this will change or if relations will continue to be handled by Ben Bourgel, Israel’s ambassador in Senegal, who presented his diplomatic credentials to Déby last year and whose brief also includes Guinea and The Gambia.
In addition to cooperation on security, trade, and agriculture, as well as support in international bodies, normalisation with Chad would provide the potential for use of its airspace and ground facilities. This would allow flight times between Israel and South America to be reduced by several hours.
Channel 12, meanwhile, reports a likely connection between the Chadian and Sudanese processes, with al-Burhan and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daklo, having visited Chad earlier this week.
The Sudanese move to resume the normalisation process follows its suspension after a military coup removed the previous regime in 2021.
Sudan became the fourth state to sign normalisation agreements with Israel in October 2020, as part of the Abraham Accords and in return for removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
In May 2022, in the wake of the coup, the Biden Administration announced that it was cancelling aid to Sudan, including that related to the Abraham Accords.
Despite this move, the current process to finalise normalisation upon Sudan’s transition to a civilian regime appears to have been encouraged by the US, and a subject of discussion during Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s recent visit to Israel.
Cohen previously visited Sudan in January 2021, when intelligence minister in the Netanyahu-Gantz government, while Israeli-Sudanese relations has been a key project for Ronen Levy (codenamed Maoz), the new Director General of the Foreign Ministry.
Cohen noted that the peace deal with Sudan would allows Sudanese residents of Israel to return to the country.
Sudan was, for decades, a key part of the wider Muslim world’s hostility to Israel. In 1967, it hosted the Arab League’s notorious Khartoum Conference at which the “three nos” – to peace, to recognition, and to negotiation – were adopted.
From the late 1970s, it became a refuge for Palestinian militants and a sponsor of Palestinian terror, particularly Hamas. In 2012, Israel carried out a missile strike on a Khartoum weapons factory it alleged was supplying Palestinian groups.
Between the late 1980s and the mid 2010s, Sudan also enjoyed warm relations with Iran. From 2014, however, it moved away from Tehran’s orbit and towards that of Iran’s enemy in Saudi Arabia.
The fall of its long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 saw fears that Iran might exploit the vacuum to reintroduce partnership, but such proved not to be the case, and normalisation will see Sudan join Chad in seeking mutual anti-terror cooperation with Israel.
Both Chad and Sudan continue to face criticism for their human rights records.

Israeli officials are briefing that the Chadian and Sudanese agreements might soon be followed by other normalisation deals with Mauritania and Indonesia.

Netanyahu is likely to pursue the extension of the Abraham Accords to include other Middle Eastern states, with Saudi Arabia representing the ultimate prize.

February 1, 2023

Blinken meets Sisi in Cairo

What happened: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken completed his visit to the region having first met Egyptian President Sisi in Cairo and then engaged with a range of Israeli figures before travelling to Ramallah to see Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

During his meeting with Abbas, Blinken expressed “sorrow for the innocent Palestinian civilians who have lost their lives in escalating violence over the last year”, while also condemning Palestinian celebrations of last Friday’s deadly terror attack in Jerusalem.
Blinken also criticised the PA for its announcement of a suspension of security cooperation with Israel.
Later, in his final press conference back in Jerusalem, Blinken professed “deep concern about the current trajectory”, with his fears for the prospects for a two-state solution focussed chiefly on Israeli actions and proposals by coalition figures.
“The United States will continue to oppose anything that puts that goal further from reach,” he said, “including but not limited to settlement expansion, legalisation of illegal outposts, moves toward annexation of the West Bank, disruptions to the historic status quo at Jerusalem’s holy sites, demolitions and evictions, and incitement and acquiescence to violence.”
At their Monday meeting, both Netanyahu and Blinken stressed the closeness of US-Israeli ties and urged the extension of the Abraham Accords, though with the Prime Minister acknowledging Blinken’s reservation that “these efforts are not a substitute for progress between Israelis and Palestinians”. “Expanding the circle of peace,” said Netanyahu, “working to close, finally, the file of the Arab-Israeli conflict I think would also help us achieve a workable solution with our Palestinian neighbours.”
In his own comments, Blinken hinted at US concerns over the new Israeli government’s policy direction by noting that the bilateral relationship was one which included “holding ourselves to the mutual standards we’ve established; and by speaking frankly and respectfully, as friends do, when we agree and when we do not.”
He then became more specific, with remarks widely interpreted as urging Israeli caution on judicial reform. Stressing US-Israel shared values, he said: “That includes our support for core democratic principles and institutions, including respect for human rights, the equal administration of justice for all, the equal rights of minority groups, the rule of law, free press, a robust civil society.”
In an implicit endorsement of the protest movement, Blinken added that “the vibrancy of Israel’s civil society has been on full display of late.” In an unusual move, he also found time to meet with a range of civil society leaders, including representatives of organisations promoting coexistence, ultra-Orthodox employment, and LGBTQ rights.
In remarks designed to assuage American concerns over judicial reform, Netanyahu referred to the US and Israel as “two strong democracies which will remain, I assure you, two strong democracies.”
On Iran, while Netanyahu placed the focus on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activity, Blinken was careful to include its arming of Russia in his remarks. Adding, “Russia’s ongoing atrocities only underscore the importance of providing support for all of Ukraine’s needs – humanitarian, economic, and security.”
Blinken continued this theme in his discussions with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen. “We appreciate Israel’s humanitarian assistance,” said Blinken, adding that “we look forward to discussing what more can we do.”
In his meeting with Blinken, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant championed the “exceptional” recent joint military exercise, “Juniper Oak”, as emblematic of the close and unbreakable bond of cooperation enjoyed by both nations.
Blinken’s visit came in the wake of Friday’s deadly terror attack; the largest ever US-Israeli joint military exercise; and American concern over the new Israeli government’s judicial reform agenda.
The visit follows US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s trip two weeks ago and a more recent trip made by CIA director William Burns.
Blinken’s interventions on democracy and judicial reform came as the government’s proposals continue to prove hugely divisive. Yesterday again saw hi tech workers join protests against the planned changes.
Blinken’s channelled President Herzog’s recent calls by recognising that “building consensus for new proposals is the most effective way to ensure they’re embraced and that they endure.”
The PA announced the suspension of security cooperation in the wake of last Thursday’s Israeli raid in Jenin. It has previously withdrawn cooperation while retaining some on the ground cooperation. Indeed, in conversation with CIA director William Burns on Sunday, Abbas hinted for the first time that intelligence sharing with the Israelis was ongoing and that full engagement could be resumed in future.
Over 180 Palestinians have been killed since the beginning of 2022, though in Israel’s assessment over 90% were members of terror organisations or active combatants.
Cohen took office promising to “talk less” on Russia-Ukraine, but has recently confirmed that he is shortly to become the first Middle Eastern foreign minister to visit Kyiv since the start of the Russian invasion.
The Juniper Oak military exercise, widely interpreted as a signal to Iran of US-Israeli preparedness, was the largest joint exercise the two states have conducted. It included close to 8,000 troops combined and tested some of the militaries most advanced technology.
Also on the Israel – US bilateral agenda is Israel’s access to the US visa waiver programme, with talks ongoing.
Netanyahu plans to visit the US soon for further bilateral discussions on Iran and other shared security concerns.
Ahead of Cohen’s Kyiv visit, it remains to be seen whether Israel will respond to Blinken’s urging and alter the careful balance it has struck on Russia-Ukraine. In remarks to CNN immediately after Blinken’s departure, Netanyahu claimed to be “certainly looking into” increased military support to Ukraine, and highlighted Israeli cooperation in transferring a stockpile of Israeli-based US weapons to Kyiv.
The Knesset’s Constitution, Law and Justice Committee yesterday continued its discussions on judicial reform proposals.

January 27, 2023

IDF and CENTCOM begin Op Juniper Oak

This week saw US Central Command (CENTCOM) and the IDF begin “Juniper Oak 23.2”, a wide-ranging series of exercises in Israel and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

The size of the exercise is unprecedented: “We can’t really find another that even kind of comes close,” a senior US defence official said.
Under joint US-Israeli command and control, Juniper Oak is “all-domain”, meaning it includes scenarios for all conceivable conflict arenas: on land, in the air, at sea, in space, and in cyberspace.
It mission areas consist of: Air operations in maritime surface warfare; Combat search and rescue; Electronic attack; Suppression of enemy air defences; Strike coordination and reconnaissance; Air interdiction.
A “large-scale live fire event” will also be included, involving:
- Over 140 aircraft, including B52s (which will conduct bomb runs in southern Israel in cooperation with IAF squadrons), F35s, F15s, F16s, FA-18s, AC-130, and AH64s.
- 12 naval vessels (6 Israeli and 6 US, including a carrier strike group).
- High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems.
- Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.
The Israeli Navy’s Sa’ar 5-class corvettes and a submarine will refuel from an American replenishment tanker “to expand the IDF’s ranges and areas of operation in routine and emergency situations.”
Over 1,100 Israeli personnel will take part, alongside nearly 6,500 American troops, the bulk stationed on the USS George Bush aircraft carrier, as well as another 450 American troops stationed in Israel.
Though planning began in consultation with the previous Lapid government, US officials have nonetheless stressed that the speed with which this exercise has been put together is unusual.

While Iran has not been mentioned explicitly in either CENTCOM or the IDF’s official statements on Juniper Oak, US officials have privately confirmed analysts’ interpretation that such a large-scale and public military exercise is intended to send a clear message to the Islamic Republic as to joint US-Israeli capability and preparedness.

“It would not surprise me,” said one senior US defence official to NBC, “if Iran sees the scale and the nature of these activities and understands what the two of us are capable of doing.”
The exercise follows reports last week that the Israeli Air Force is seeking new F-15 EX aircraft from the US. F-15s would give the IAF an extended strike range and increased payload capacity.
Juniper Oak follows a joint Air Force exercise which simulated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in November 2022. A further joint exercise held in the first week of January 2023.
Juniper Oak is the most significant joint activity since then-President Trump moved Israel from US European Command (EUCOM) to CENTCOM in January 2021.
Since its establishment in 1983, CENTCOM has functioned as the US’s unified combatant command responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia.
Until Trump’s move, Israel had previously been excluded from its command – falling in EUCOM, instead – at the insistence of other Middle Eastern states.
By being brought into the CENTCOM orbit, Israel is now part of a much more muscular unified combatant command and, crucially, one with Iran as part of its area of responsibility.
Juniper Oak represents the peak of increased Israeli-CENTCOM coordination over the past 12 months. So large an exercise was foreshadowed when, near the end of his tenure, Recently retired IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi confirmed that joint military activities would shortly be “significantly expanded.”
The exercise is also being interpreted as a message of reassurance to regional Sunni allies of the US that despite its regional draw-down, the US remains committed to the region.
US troop numbers in the Middle East have reduced to a historically low level of 30,000-35,000. Regional allies have been concerned that The National Defence Strategy’s prioritising of China, and the US focus on Russia-Ukraine, have come at the expense of its commitments to its Middle Eastern allies.
The senior US defence source addressed these concerns in the context of Juniper Oak to NBC: “What we think this exercise demonstrates is we can walk and chew gum at the same time… We still have the excess capacity to be able to flex to another high priority area of responsibility and conduct an exercise on this scale.”
Though not active participants in the exercise, officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council groups of states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) and from Egypt, Iraq and Jordan are likely to be briefed by the US after its completion.
CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Kurilla also perhaps hinted at the future formal involvement of Sunni allies with similar exercises when he said: “The lessons learned during these exercises are exportable to our partners across the region.”
Away from the exercise, Walla News reported yesterday that Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi paid a secret visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday and met with senior UAE officials. Dermer’s brief involves both relations with the US and aspects of the Iranian issue. Prime Minister Netanyahu had hoped that his first foreign visit since his reappointment as Prime Minister would be to the UAE, but his scheduled trip to Abu Dhabi this month was cancelled.
US National Security Advisor also Jake Sullivan visited Israel last week. His meetings with Israeli officials included discussion of Iran, but also included conveying the Biden administration’s concerns over Netanyahu’s new government’s prospective policies towards the Palestinians and the maintenance of the status quo in Jerusalem.

Juniper Oak will conclude later this week.

Following Sullivan’s visit, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is due to arrive in Israel next week. Netanyahu will then visit the US in February.
The flurry of diplomatic trips is reflective both of the US’s desire for reassurance over the new government’s plans and its awareness of the need for a new Iran strategy, its efforts at a diplomatic solution having foundered.

January 23, 2023

Negev Forum’s first meeting

Israeli Foreign Ministry Director Alon Ushpiz and 20 other Israeli officials joined counterparts from Morocco, Bahrain, the UAE, Egypt, and the US in Abu Dhabi for the first official meeting of the Negev Forum’s working groups.

A total of 150 participants met in what organisers say was the largest gathering of Israeli and Arab officials since the 1991 Madrid Summit.
Israeli ministries represented included defence, intelligence, economy, agriculture, energy, health, tourism, and education. Officials from the National Security Council and the Water Authority were also present.
Amidst a week of domestic political tension and recrimination, the forum presented a rare opportunity for bipartisan celebration. Opposition leader Yair Lapid described images from the summit as “extremely moving” and tweeted that “our vision of a ‘statesmanship of connections’ is taking form and is bringing the Middle East to new achievements of regional stability and cooperation.”
Away from the Forum, new Foreign Minister Eli Cohen spoke with UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on Tuesday. Cohen then joined Economy Minister Nik Barkat in meeting with UK minister for the Middle East region Lord Ahmed in Jerusalem on Wednesday, with discussions focussing on regional security and the long hoped-for free trade deal between the UK and Israel.

The Negev Forum was a 2022 initiative of the US and then-Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, designed to create a “permanent forum” to deepen the Abraham Accords, strengthen Arab-Israeli ties, and address issues of mutual concern.

Its inaugural meeting, attended by the Foreign Ministers of all members, was held in March last year in Sde Boker, followed by subsequent meetings in June and October.
The Working Groups are divided into six issue areas-
- Regional security
- Clean energy
- Food and water security
- Health
- Tourism
- Education and coexistence.
It can already point to its achievements in increased tourism and direct flights between Israel and the Arab members, as well as the expansion of trade and academic and cultural exchange.
Israel currently chairs the education and coexistence group, and co-chairs the food and water security team with Morocco.
Officials stressed the importance of the latter group in the context of the continued disruption of the global supply of grain and other vital ingredients caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Israeli Foreign Ministry officials stressed that the decision of all other Forum states to publicly criticise Minister Ben Gvir’s recent visit to the Temple Mount would have no bearing on discussions, and further signs of the increased cooperation between Israel and the UAE were evident during and beyond the Forum.
This week, Israel and UAE held their first official financial dialogue meeting (virtually). Shira Greenberg, chief economist and director of state revenue, research, and international affairs at the Israeli Ministry of Finance joined Younis Haji Al Khoori, under-secretary of the UAE’s Ministry of Finance, to discuss opportunities for financial cooperation.
The UAE also announced this week that it will introduce Holocaust education at both the primary and secondary level.
Jordan continues to decline invitations to attend the Forum, citing the non-inclusion of the Palestinians. A US State Department official this week described the ongoing absence of Jordanian officials as constituting an “empty chair at the table”.
US officials have been keen to persuade Amman to participate, with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken raising the issue once more on a phone call with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi last Friday.
Alongside Egyptian overtures to Ramallah, the question of Palestinian involvement was also discussed last July during President Biden’s meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, with the latter said to have confirmed to Biden that his government was not interested in participating under current conditions.
The US continues to update Palestinian officials on the forum’s discussions, and an idea floated last year was that Jordan and the Palestinians would join the working groups in an observer capacity.
The US stressed that the forum’s work still sought to benefit the Palestinians: “You’ll likely see projects that are not targeted specifically at the Palestinians per se,” said an official, “but broader regional projects that [they] will be able to benefit from just like the other countries involved…”
Although Israeli-Palestinian peace is not a formal priority of the forum, its Regional Cooperation Framework (agreed by the Bennett-Lapid government in November 2022 but only released this week) did express the ambition that its work could be “harnessed to create momentum in Israeli-Palestinian relations, towards a negotiated resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and as part of efforts to achieve a just, lasting and comprehensive peace.”
Ushpiz, however, said: “Our line is very clear and my instructions going in were very clear - the Negev forum is about strengthening regional integration and improving people’s lives and we don’t want it to engage in political discussions about the Palestinian issue.”
Analyst Barak Ravid cites Israeli officials disclosing that several of the participating Arab states had wanted the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to be mentioned in the meeting’s closing statement but that these proposals were rejected by Israeli officials.
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qasem, meanwhile, condemned the Arab states’ participation as an “insistence on the sin of their normalisation with the Occupation State”.

The forum’s next meeting – at the “Annual Ministerial” level – will take place in Morocco in the Spring.

By that time, Prime Minister Netanyahu will hope to have made his first official visit to the UAE.
According to reports, officials in Washington plan to invite the Foreign Minister of an unnamed and as yet uninvolved Muslim African state.

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