What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu held two rare press conferences yesterday for international and local media in which he explained his government’s decision regarding taking control of Gaza.

• He emphasised, “Our goal is not to occupy Gaza. Our goal is to free Gaza, free it from Hamas terrorists.”
• He continued, “The war can end tomorrow if Gaza, or rather, if Hamas lays down its arms and releases all the remaining hostages. Gaza will be demilitarised, Israel will have overriding security responsibilities. A security zone will be established on Gaza’s border with Israel to prevent future terrorist incursions. A civilian administration will be established in Gaza that will seek to live in peace with Israel.”
• “We have about 70 to 75 percent of Gaza under Israeli control, military control… the security cabinet instructed the IDF to dismantle the two remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza City and the Central Camps. Contrary to false claims, this is the best way to end the war, and the best way to end it speedily.
• “We will do so by first enabling the civilian population to safely leave the combat areas to designated safe zones. In these safe zones they will be given ample food, water and medical care, as we have done before. And again, contrary to false claims, our policy throughout the war has been to prevent a humanitarian crisis, while Hamas’s policy has been to create it.
• “Since the beginning of the war, Israel has let in close to 2 million tons of aid! I know of no other army that has enabled such aid to go to the civilian population in enemy territory.” Netanyahu emphasised there is no, and has never been a starvation policy.  
• To combat Hamas looting of aid trucks, he outlined three steps:
  • Designating safe corridors for humanitarian aid distribution
  • Increasing the number of safe distribution points managed by the Gazan Humanitarian Foundation.
  • Air drops; by the Israeli Air Force and “we’re inviting others to join us.”
• Netanyahu described this as a “humanitarian surge,” coordinated with President Trump and his team.
• To the international media he clarified, “The purpose of this news conference is to puncture the lies…Hamas statistics, Hamas claims, Hamas forgeries, and Hamas photographs.” he then presented examples of three emaciated Gazan children that had been presented by the international media as suffering starvation, when in fact all three had pre-existing medical  conditions.  Adding, “I’m looking right now into the possibility of a governmental suit against the New York Times, because this is outrageous. Of course, the correction was postage-size, I don’t know where it was buried. But this is outrageous, these are the three most celebrated photos, and they’re all fake.”
• In a response to a question Netanyahu committed to allowing more journalist access into Gaza, but presumably only embedded with the IDF at this point.
• Also Sunday Netanyahu spoke to  President Trump. According to the PMO readout, they “discussed Israel’s plans for taking control of the remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza in order to bring about the end of the war, the release of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas.”
• On the ground the IDF announced that they “struck the terrorist Anas Al-Sharif, who posed as a journalist for the Al Jazeera network.” The IDF said that intelligence and a large trove of documents found in the Gaza Strip confirmed that al-Sharif belonged to Hamas and served as the leader of a cell, “responsible for advancing rocket attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops. “
• On Sunday COGAT announced over 280 trucks entered Gaza. Whilst 300 trucks were collected and distributed by the UN and international organisations, as well as additional fuel tankers. In addition, 131 pallets of aid were airdropped in cooperation with the UAE, Jordan, Germany,  Belguim, Italy, The Netherlands and France.

Context: Netanyahu decided to hold the press conferences as a response to growing international criticism, particularly moves by the UK, French and German governments.

• The precise plans for the ”takeover” of Gaza City remain vague and with apparent contradictions. On the one hand the prime minister emphasised a speedy operation to end the war as quickly as possible. On the other hand, he had previously set the (symbolic anniversary) October 7^th deadline to evacuate the estimated 1 million Palestinian civilians currently residing in Gaza City. Moreover, the IDF has stated “safety before speed” that the operation will be slow and cautious so as to protect the soldiers and Palestinian civilians.
• A second concern relates to the fate of the 50 hostages, 20 of who are thought to be still alive, held in horrific conditions for 675 days. Following the recent video footage there is widespread concern for their lives. Furthermore, the IDF has in the past been reluctant to operate is areas that intelligence indicates they are being held, so as to not risk their lives.
• A third concern focuses on the role of the IDF reserves who will carry out the operation. The IDF is acutely aware of the strain on reservists and their families, particularly those with families during the school holidays. This will continue to be an issue as the Jewish High Holiday period begins in mid-September. This is compounded by the ongoing lack of participation by the vast majority of ultra-Orthodox men.
• Veteran commentator Sever Plocker writing in Yediot Ahronot highlighted a fourth concern, “beyond military, political and moral arguments… dire economic consequences, higher taxes, severe budget cuts, capital flight, investors’ flight, the shekel’s devaluation, a spike in inflation and other painful economic repercussions.”
• In parallel to the military preparations US Special Envoy Witkoff met with Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani. The latest efforts are thought to try and  reach a comprehensive deal that includes an end to the fighting, a full Israeli withdrawal, the release of all the hostages, disarming the Palestinian factions, exiling senior Hamas officials overseas and the establishment of a professional civilian leadership that will administer the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: The IDF Southern Command are expected to present their operational plan to the IDF Chief of Staff at the end of this week, who will then share with the political echelon.

• The first stage of implementation will be to encourage the civilian population to vacate the proposed combat zone, and the establishment of an alternative with enough food and medical provisions.
• This process could take up to two months, in which time if there is a possibility to reach an agreement the operation could be cancelled.              

What’s happened: The Prime Minister’s Office announced a “decisive majority” of the security cabinet “supported the Prime Minister’s proposal for defeating Hamas.  Declaring, “The IDF will prepare for taking control of Gaza City while distributing humanitarian assistance to the civilian population outside the combat zones.” The security cabinet adopted the five principles for concluding the war:

• The disarming of Hamas.
• The return of all the hostages, the living and the deceased.
• The demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip.
• Israeli security control in the Gaza Strip.
• The establishment of an alternative civil administration that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.

• The first stage is expected to include the encircling all the remaining areas of the Gaza Strip that are controlled by Hamas, then conquering them. 
• The government is facing severe internal criticism. Leader of the Opposition Lapid responded saying, “all Netanyahu has to offer is more war, more dead hostages, more announcements of soldiers killed and tens of millions of taxpayer funds to be poured into the bizarre fantasies of Ben Gvir and Smotrich.”
• The Hostages and Missing Families Forum released a statement saying the, “decision to pursue occupation of the Gaza Strip means abandoning the hostages, while completely ignoring the repeated warnings from military leadership and the clear will of the majority of the Israeli public.”
• “By choosing military escalation over negotiation, we are leaving our loved ones at the mercy of Hamas, an evil terrorist organisation that systematically starves and abuses the hostages…. They don’t have any time left. We can’t leave them in the hands of these monsters any longer.”
• There were angry demonstrations Thursday night in Jerusalem and in Tel Aviv demanding that the government take immediate action to free all the hostages in exchange for ending the war. In Tel Aviv, demonstrators blocked the Ayalon Highway. The police said the demonstrators sprayed tear gas at police, attacked them and set fire to tires. Nine people were arrested.
• British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters also warned it “would be a huge mistake” for Israel to occupy all of Gaza. Adding, “The IDF has done all that it can do in Gaza, it’s not going to achieve any more by fighting any longer.”

Context: Netanyahu decided to continue the fighting after concluding that hostage negotiations with Hamas are not feasible and that he does not believe there is any other way to achieve the war’s objectives.

• In the lead up to the cabinet decision IDF Chief of Staff Zamir’s preference was to avoid committing to a complete take over, instead endorsing a siege around the areas in which Hamas remains active in the Gaza Strip. However, the prime minister felt the plan submitted by the military was insufficient, and decided to go for the alternative of a full conquest. However, in an apparent compromise, Netanyahu endorsed a staged plan, beginning with laying siege to Gaza City and only then imposing a full conquest.
• It appears there is full agreement between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu on the need for an immediate and powerful military course of action in the Gaza Strip that will overcome the hurdle of Hamas’s intransigence.
• Both Israel and the US reached the conclusion that Hamas’s had toughened its negotiating position as a result of the heavy anti-Israel sentiment internationally and the effect of the videos of the starved hostages on Israeli public opinion – a combination Hamas hoped would lead to the Israeli government to capitulate to its demands.
• Between yesterday’s endorsement of the plan and its implementation is a window for Hamas to accept the terms of the Witkoff proposal, which has been accepted by Israel. It is also possible that finally Qatar will place the requisite pressure on Hamas to reach an agreement, though this is yet to happen.
• Throughout the last year and half there has been anger over Qatar’s duplicitous role both as facilitator of talks but also the main backer of Hamas. There was hope that under Trump more pressure would be brought on Qatar to cut their financial support for Hamas, close down their other sources of income and expel their leaders based in Doha, although so far none of this has happened.
• According to Palestinian sources, Hamas is taking the Israeli threat seriously, but there is no sign yet that they are prepared to modify its stance.
• Despite calls from right wing coalition partners, the cabinet decision focuses on security control and not annexation of the Strip. Ahead of the cabinet meeting Netanyahu told Fox News, “We don’t want to keep it. We want to have a security perimeter, but we don’t want to govern it. We don’t want to be there as a governing body.”
• Instead the prime minister said that Israel wants to “hand it over to Arab forces that will govern it properly, without threatening us, and giving the Gazans a good life.”
• The British Ambassador also justified the anticipated unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, arguing that, “If there was a peace process, if the Palestinian Authority and Israeli government were in regular dialogue about a permanent settlement to the conflict, we would consider our timing…. but there isn’t a process and that’s the problem.”
• He sought to reassure, by adding, “I recognise that for many Israelis, the idea of a Palestinian state is concerning, but the UK is deeply committed to Israeli security.”
• Separately, The Times reported that Israel is considering cancelling security cooperation with the UK if London recognises a Palestinian state in September. Israeli intelligence expertise has previously helped the UK foil several terrorist attacks on British soil.
• For more context on the decisionmaking process behind this development, please see our morning briefing from yesterday.

Looking forward: The plan is expected to be implemented in several stages:

• In the first stage the residents of Gaza City will be evacuated over the next two months and moved to safe areas whist continuing to increase the flow of aid to those areas.    
• After that, the IDF will surround Gaza City and troops will operate inside.

What’s happened: Later today the Israeli cabinet will discuss a major new offensive operation in Gaza that could see the entire Strip conquered by Israeli forces. The decision comes on the heels of unusually public disagreements between the military and the civilian leadership and deep divisions in public opinion.

• Leaks to Israeli media indicate that the Cabinet will decide between two general directions. The first is a full conquest and ground troops occupation of the coastal enclave, while the second could be besieging its central area around Gaza City without a broader occupation.
• The deliberations around the new offensive have included an unprecedentedly public fight between civilian and military leaders, with leaks from the Government and the IDF creating a public impression that IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir strongly opposes a complete occupation of the Strip. Media outlets normally supportive of the Prime Minister have been strongly critical of Zamir, whose appointment only a few months ago was broadly supported by the Prime Minister’s supporters following the resignation of the previous Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi, who had been blamed by the PM’s circle for failures on October 7th.
• Zamir himself has not made any public statement on the deliberations and has denied being behind leaks critical of the Government’s plans. Writing in Israel Hayom, military affairs correspondent noted the importance — and limitations — of the doubts attributed to Zamir: “The chief of staff is not a bureaucrat. He is a military officer. It is his responsibility to give his professional opinion and to fight for it. He  has a responsibility to protect the men and women who serve under him, as well a responsibility to uphold morality and ethics. If he thinks hostages will be killed—he has to say so. If he thinks a proposed course of action will cost the lives of many soldiers, he has to say so. If he believes many innocent Palestinians will be killed, he has to say so. If he thinks this decision will result in IDF soldiers being hunted down everywhere on earth, he has to say so. If he thinks a certain decision might lead to an arms embargo against Israel that would endanger the IDF’s ability to operate in future, he has to say so. If he thinks there is real danger that standing army and reservist troops might buckle under the strain, he has to say so. If he thinks that [imposing a] military regime [on Gaza] would create a burden on the IDF that is beyond the military’s ability to bear, he has to say so.”
• The Prime Minster briefed Opposition Leader Lapid and the military options under consideration. Following their meeting, Lapid said, “I told Netanyahu, conquering Gaza is a very bad idea. You don’t begin a move like that unless the majority of the public is behind you, but the Israeli people doesn’t want this war. We are going to pay very high prices for it.”
• Over 300 trucks of aid entered Gaza yesterday, keeping up with the pace of recent days. Hundreds are still queuing for UN pickup. Three tankers of fuel for the operation of essential humanitarian systems entered as well. Additionally, 110 pallets of aid were airdropped with the involvement of the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Germany, Canada and Belgium.

Context: During the January-March 2025 ceasefire, Israel withdrew from nearly all of the Gaza Strip except for a small buffer zone along the border and a corridor by the Rafah crossing. As of now, Israeli forces occupy roughly 75% of the Strip.

• The remaining 25% is the centre of the Strip and includes areas that the IDF has not yet operated in during the war. It is believed that the hostages are being held there. Most Gazan civilians are there too. It is known to be intensively mined and booby-trapped.
• The first option being considered by the Cabinet tonight is for a full occupation of the Strip, including the remaining 25% in the centre. Such an operation is expected to take six months. It would begin with evacuation notices to the civilians inside the central camps and Gaza City and the preparation of an emergency civilian infrastructure, including field hospitals and displaced persons camps. The operation would begin with a conquest of Gaza City and later move to the UNRWA camps around Deir al-Balah, where most of the remaining hostages are believed to be held.
• Maariv reports that the IDF believes that in such an operation, the IDF would sustain dozens of casualties and that many, and possibly all, of the living Israeli hostages would be killed by their captors.
• In parallel, the US is expected to finance the expansion, and possibly even take over the distribution of humanitarian aid.  This could include expanding facilities of the GHF from four today to 16 in the coming months.
• The second option being considered would not include a full occupation of the remaining territory, but rather an encirclement of key Hamas sites and a siege. This option, reportedly preferred by the IDF, seeks to ensure the safety of the hostages during any offensive and avoid a repeat of the incident one year ago where six hostages were murdered by their captors when IDF forces unknowingly approached the tunnel where they were being held. This operation too would likely come with heavy losses to the IDF and a great risk to the hostages.
• The renewed interest in a military offensive began in the last two weeks following the breakdown of ceasefire talks at the end of July. For weeks until then, Israel and Hamas negotiated the details of the so-called Witkoff initiative, which would have seen a 60-day ceasefire during which half of the twenty living hostages would have been released in exchange for thousands of Palestinians prisoners and detainees held by Israel, most for terrorism offences. Hamas scuttled the talks abruptly in late July amidst a surge in international criticism of Israel, and both Israeli and American officials have concluded that it is not presently interested in any deal that would release hostages.
• Speaking at the UN on Wednesday Foreign Minister Saar said recent pressure on Israel during the sensitive days in the negotiations, “directly contributed to the assassination of the chances to reach a hostage deal and ceasefire. They prolonged the war.”
• Also shaping Israeli assessments are the perceived successes and failures of the offensive operation Israel has been conducting in the Strip since May. Hamas’ fighting capabilities have been severely degraded, but it has managed to turn the suffering of its civilians, as well as that of the Israeli hostages it holds, into net political gains. Writing in Maariv, Avi Ashkenazi reports that “military officials said that the IDF had racked up many achievements in the fighting in Gaza in the past 22 months. First among them, Hamas no longer constitutes a terrorist army. It is a group of terrorist squads that are now fighting a guerilla war without a central command, without supply lines and without ordnance. Furthermore, the IDF has surrounded Hamas’s troops in the refugee camps and in Gaza City, it has damaged Hamas underground network and has destroyed large parts of the tunnels that connected the network. The result has been that Hamas terrorists who wished to relocate were forced do so above ground.”

Looking ahead: The cabinet will meet tonight to discuss the two plans. A final decision may not be reached until early next week. A breakthrough in efforts to secure a hostage release would suspend progress toward a broad Israeli military offensive, but as of now, there are no indications of any such development. 

New BICOM research: On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel. It was unprecedented in its scale, scope and brutality:

• 1,189 people were killed, including 815 civilians,
• 7,500 we wounded,
• 251 men, women and children were abducted, joining two living civilians and two dead soldiers already held by Hamas for over a decade.

The wounds — physical, emotional, and collective — remain open.

To date, 205 people have been rescued or released from Hamas captivity. 148 of the hostages returned alive, and 57 were deceased.

This BICOM’s report is a collection of testimonies of freed hostages giving a personal account of their experience in captivity.

What’s happened: Israel is reeling with anger and disgust at the latest brutal propaganda videos released by Hamas over the weekend.

• Hamas released two videos featuring 24 year old hostage Evyatar David. The first video did not include any statements, but his physical condition, severely emaciated, appeared grim with his bones jutting out of his body.
• The second video, showed David digging his own grave on orders from his captors. “I don’t eat. There’s barely any water,” said David, which he said was recorded on July 27. “This tin is for two days so that I don’t die,” he said, showing a small tin of food to the camera.
• In a script presumably dictated by his captors he says, “I have no idea whether there’s going to be food, I haven’t the faintest idea. I haven’t eaten in I don’t know how many days in a row, and I’ve been here in very-very bad shape for a very long time already.”
• In a third video, Palestinian Islamic Jihad released footage of the 21-year-old hostage, Rom Braslavski, who appeared to be gaunt and wept in the recording. Rom said, “Just give us food, if not for the Gaza Strip, then for the hostages.”
• The videos followed the visit of US envoy Witkoff who toured Gaza on Friday to personally witness the aid delivery system and later met with hostage families and consultations with senior Israeli officials. It now appears that the “Witkoff outline” is no longer on the table. Witkoff told the families they would now work on a comprehensive deal in which all of the hostages are to be released and the war ended. 
• In Beit Hanoun, in northern Gaza, the last of the Hamas fighters surrendered to troops from the Givati Brigade.
• Following questioning, the terrorists gave information about munitions warehouses adjacent to the tunnel shaft where they exited, leading troops to the warehouses. Large quantities of arms and materiel were found, including vests, rifle magazines, rifles, grenades and more. Supplies for an extended stay underground were also found in the tunnel, including food, water and hygiene supplies.
• Also over the weekend, the IDF demolished the main tunnel linking Beit Hanoun with Jabalya, Beit Lahiya and the northern reaches of Gaza City. It is estimated that dozens of Hamas terrorists were trapped in the tunnel.
• The military also said more than 130 targets were attacked around Gaza over the weekend.
• The IDF also said it had killed the terrorist Salah al-Din Za’ara, who served as the deputy commander of the Hamas Al-Furqan Battalion.
• In southern Gaza, forces killed terrorists and destroying terrorist infrastructure, including underground and buildings where terrorists operated and weapons were stored.
• Amid the ongoing fighting in Gaza, the Houthis continued to fire ballistic missiles at Israel. Sirens sounded on Friday evening in and around Jerusalem, and the Dead Sea area after a missile was fired from Yemen. The missile was intercepted by the Arrow 3 system. On Sunday the IDF intercepted a drone close to the Israeli – Egyptian border that was also launched from Yemen.

Context: Although hostage negotiations have not formally broken down, the sense in Israel is that there is currently no deal on the horizon, after Hamas hardened their negotiating positions coinciding with the British government and others increasing their pressure on Israel.          

• It is now understood that Prime Minister Netanyahu is working with President Trump and his team to draft a comprehensive new proposal that includes a deal to release all the remaining hostages and presumably end the war.
• The new proposal reportedly includes demands for the release of all remaining hostages in a single group and for Hamas to disarm. On the day after in Gaza, a US-led international administration is to be established in the Gaza Strip.
• If Hamas do not agree the US is expected to give Israel a free hand to operate militarily in the Gaza Strip.
• The horrific video footage of Evyatar David and Rom Braslavski is seen as proof that Hamas is deliberately starving the hostages in order to ratchet up pressure on Israel.   
• Israel now believes the dire humanitarian situation in the Strip actually helps Hamas, and has allowed a surge in the flow of humanitarian aid.
• According to the latest data from COGAT, in the past week over 23,000 tons of humanitarian entered Gaza and 1,200 trucks were successfully collected by the UN and international organisations.
• In addition, hundreds of pallets of humanitarian supplies were airdropped by international partners to help address urgent needs on the ground. In cooperation with Israel, the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, France, Germany, and Belgium facilitated 136 aid packages, containing food airdropped into Gaza.
• Addressing Hamas’s campaign of starvation, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir, said “The current campaign of false accusations of intentional starvation is a deliberate, timed, and deceitful attempt to accuse the IDF, a moral army, of war crimes. The ones responsible for the killing and suffering of the residents in the Gaza Strip is Hamas. IDF soldiers and commanders act with integrity and morality, in accordance with the IDF’s values and international law.”
• Separately, a group of countries including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar presented a document to the UN demanding that Hamas be disarmed and excluded from future governance of the Gaza Strip. The document represents welcome pressure now being applied on Hamas, including a condemnation of the attack on Israeli civilians on October 7. It also endorses the Palestinian Authority (PA) to take over future responsibility for security and civilian affairs.
• Relating to the British Government’s announced on unilaterally recognising the State of Palestine, Malcolm Shaw KC presented a series of arguments against unilateral recognition He argued:
  • Palestine doesn’t meet key Montevideo Convention standards, specifically lacking effective governance and a defined territory, due to internal division between PA and Hamas, and lack of territorial control.
  • Widespread recognition by states is politically significant but legally insufficient without UN Security Council approval or clear factual statehood.
  • Palestinians have the right to self-determination, but that alone doesn’t override legal thresholds for statehood.
  • Allowing declarations of statehood outside accepted criteria and procedures, even under self-determination undermines international legal order.

Looking ahead: The change to now focus on a comprehensive ceasefire plan – rather than a partial deal – will take time, as it requires resolving several difficult issues. These include the ratio and identity of Palestinian terrorists in Israeli jails to be released, the nature and geographical redeployment of the IDF, and the demilitarisation of the Strip. 

• The latter is understood to be part of a growing consensus that Hamas must agree to stop repairing / digging new tunnels, to stop the manufacture of missiles and explosives and to stop smuggling weapons under the Philadelphi Corridor from Egypt.      
• In light of the failure of the talks, the inner security cabinet will meet later this week to discuss next steps. The IDF has reduced its troop deployment and has long supported a deal. But if the government decides to continue fighting, Chief of Staff Zamir has recommended increasing operations and raids in parts of the Strip where the IDF has not operated so far, such as Gaza City and the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip. These raids will be evaluated to avoid harming the remaining hostages.
• Defence officials anticipate that Hamas will release more videos of the hostages in captivity in an effort to ratchet up pressure on Israel.

What happened: Yesterday was the first day of Israel’s “humanitarian pause” in Gaza, in which military activity ceases from 10:00am to 8:00pm in designated areas where most civilians are located.

• The security cabinet met last night to discuss Israel’s options as the current military offensive, Operation Gideon’s Chariot, winds down without a ceasefire deal in place.
• Negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release continued in both Doha and Sardinia, with more revelations in media reports about the breakdown in talks last week, largely following new demands from Hamas that surprised and frustrated the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
• Egyptian and Jordanian aid trucks entered Gaza, and the IDF began airdropping aid into the Gaza Strip as well. According to COGAT:
  • Over 200 trucks were collected and distributed yesterday by the UN and international organisations with additional 260 trucks in Gaza awaiting collection and distribution, along with hundreds of others still queued for UN pickup.
  • Four tankers of UN fuel entered for the operation of essential humanitarian systems.
  • 20 pallets of aid were airdropped in cooperation with the UAE and Jordan.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu conceded that the humanitarian situation in Gaza was “difficult,” but accused Hamas of “stealing aid… many times by shooting Palestinians.”
• The US too sharpened its tone on the humanitarian situation while still laying the blame at Hamas’ doorstep. In an interview yesterday, State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce said, “People have got to get fed, but in the meantime Hamas refuses to put down its weapons, refuses to release the hostages, which could stop all of this in a moment. But that won’t stop us from easing the pain.” 
• Yesterday, during their meeting in Scotland, Donald Trump and Keir Starmer discussed the situation in Gaza:
  • While Starmer recognised the need to free the hostages, he marked the situation on the ground in Gaza as “absolutely intolerable” as Trump emphasised that there’s “a lot of starving people”.
  • Starmer called for stepping up the humanitarian efforts in Gaza saying “There needs to be much more [aid], we need to galvanise other countries in support of getting that aid in. And yes that does involve putting pressure on Israel, because this is a humanitarian catastrophe now.”
  • Trump later announced that he intends to work with European allies to “set up food centres” in Gaza.
  • On the issue of recognising Palestinian statehood – and the ongoing debate over whether Starmer will follow Macron’s lead – Donald Trump indicated that he doesn’t mind if the UK recognises a Palestinian state. The recognition was rejected by the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, on Sunday.
• A three-day rescheduled UN confab sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia – and co-chaired by 16 other countries and delegations, including the United Kingdom – opened yesterday.  The French Foreign Minister said “Only a political, two-state solution will help respond to the legitimate aspirations of Israelis and Palestinians to live in peace and security,” while Saudi foreign minister, said that the kingdom was seeking World Bank approval to transfer $300m to Gaza and the West Bank to counter the dire humanitarian crisis in the territories. 
• The US State Department said the conference was “unproductive and ill-timed” adding that it was “a publicity stunt that comes in the middle of delicate diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.” “Far from promoting peace, the conference will prolong the war, embolden Hamas, and reward its obstruction and undermine real-world efforts to achieve peace.”

Context: With the IDF in control of at least two thirds of the territory, Israeli decision makers are due to find themselves at a critical juncture in the coming days with the current military offensive reaching its natural endpoint. 

• Talks for an agreement that would have led to a ceasefire and a hostage release – which seemed to be reaching an agreement last week – fell apart with the publication of the (mostly European) Foreign Ministers’ Statement and the media furore over starvation in Gaza which put Hamas in a position where it could receive for free what it would have had to pay for in released hostages beforehand. 
• Moreover, the Prime Minister and his Government have three months of relative quiet as a parliamentary recess means the coalition can lumber on without the threat of early elections being called.
• Channel 12 news reported that Israel’s cabinet is considering fully occupying Gaza, alongside a tightened siege on certain areas within the Strip. If carried out, the plan would mean that IDF troops would operate in areas where hostages are believed to be held – a move largely avoided by Israel until now. 
• Perched around Gaza City, and the camps of the central Strip — Nuseirat, al-Bureij and Deir al-Balah — the IDF awaits orders from the Government. An offensive into the camps, largely untouched since the war began, risks losing the hostages forever. The belief that Israel could recover the hostages alive via an agreement with had stayed Israel’s hand until now. 
• Gaza City was also avoided in the current ground offensive. A decision to move in would need to be carefully considered. Yedioth Ahronot’s military affairs correspondent Yossi Yehoshua writes about Gaza City, “Roughly a million civilians are currently concentrated in Gaza City alone. The Gaza City Brigade, Hamas’ last remaining brigade, has formed under their protection. To where can the IDF evacuate the civilians, when most of the Strip has been destroyed and does not allow for further absorption? How can effective fighting be conducted under such conditions? And the biggest question of all: how do you fight in an area where there might be hostages?”
• While US officials, especially President Trump, have expressed extreme scepticism about the prospect of reaching a hostage deal with Hamas, Israeli negotiators briefing local media anonymously continue to project optimism. A new channel of talks opened up in Sardinia, where the Qatari Prime Minister was vacationing earlier this summer.
• Ronen Bergman, also writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, published new revelations about the impasse in the talks earlier this month. The talks focused largely on the chronological steps of the ceasefire and the maps of the Israeli withdrawals. Only after these issues were resolved on July 23, did Hamas suddenly dramatically raise its demands regarding the ratio of prisoners to be released for each Israeli hostage. “That is when the mediating countries and Hamas clashed behind the scenes. The mediating countries accused Hamas of having played them in the negotiations, and Hamas accused them of not doing enough on behalf of the Palestinian people.” Though Bergman doesn’t draw the connection in his article, this was 48 hours after the Foreign Ministers’ Statement, agreed to by 28 countries including the UK, which threatened Israel with diplomatic consequences unless it adhered to a series of conditions that otherwise would have been included in the ceasefire deal.

Looking ahead: Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi are due to arrive in Florida today where they are reportedly set to meet US Envoy Steve Witkoff. Witkoff was due to arrive in Doha to wrap up talks on a ceasefire deal last week, but cancelled after new Hamas demands ended the talks.

• The EU is set to decide tomorrow whether to partially suspend Israel from the European Research Council’s prestigious Horizon Europe grant program. Israeli scientists report a dramatic drop in grants since the October 7 war began, even absent any official decision. The decision would need the backing of a qualified majority of member states.
• Sir Keir Starmer recalled his Cabinet from summer break to discuss the crisis in Gaza. Under mounting internal pressure to join Macron’s recognition of a Palestinian state, he is expected to unveil a comprehensive British proposal for resolving the crisis sometime in the coming days.