On 12th October 2023, BICOM Director Richard Pater was interviewed by Jeremy Vine on BBC Radio 2. Richard discussed the impact of the Hamas attacks on Israeli society and Israel’s campaign in the Gaza Strip.

Emergency unity government formed:  Prime Minister Netanyahu and National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz last night came to an agreement for Gantz and his party’s 12 MKs to join an emergency unity government.

• Gantz will immediately join Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant in a special war cabinet, which will oversee Israel’s response to Hamas’s deadly surprise attack. Gantz’s party colleague and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot will attend the war cabinet as an observer, as will Ron Dermer of the Likud.
• National Unity Party MKs Gideon Saar, Chili Tropper and Yifat Shasha-Biton will be appointed ministers and will join the wider security cabinet.
• Stressing that his decision did not signal a fundamental shift in his political differences with Netanyahu, Gantz said: “this isn’t a political partnership, this is a shared fate. We are lending a shoulder and are enlisting in the war that is being prosecuted by the prime minister and the defence minister.”

Foreign Secretary Cleverly visits Israel: He became the first foreign minister to visit Israel since the country was plunged into war by Hamas.

• Cleverly visited Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, also accompanying Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen to the southern village of Ofakim to witness the devastation of Hamas’s attack first-hand.
• During his southern stop, Cleverly was forced to join his hosts in running for cover when an air raid siren sounded.
• “I’m in Israel today to show the UK’s unwavering support for Israel,” Cleverly said. “The facts are clear. Hamas are terrorists. Israel has the right to defend itself. Hamas and Hamas alone are responsible and accountable for these appalling attacks. Terrorism must never be allowed to prevail.”
• King Charles also offered his solidarity to Israel yesterday. In a lengthy phone call with Israel’s President Herzog, the king offered his condolences on the loss of the fallen Israelis.

Gaza Strip Periphery: As of yesterday, there were still pockets of Hamas terrorists inside Israel. Residents in Ashkelon, Netivot and Sderot were instructed to lock themselves inside their homes over these concerns.

• Three terrorists were killed in exchanges of fire with IDF troops near Kibbutz Zikim yesterday. Another three terrorists were killed last night near Kibbutz Nir Am. Five more terrorists were killed in other parts of the Gaza periphery.
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said yesterday, “we are continuing to purge the periphery. There are isolated engagements but the territory is under the security forces’ control.”
• He added, “in the past two days no terrorists have crossed the fence. They have been killed before the fence. There are hundreds of terrorists’ bodies in that area, which we will remove moving forward. We have found thus far the bodies of roughly 1,000 terrorists, and we expect to find hundreds more. That attests to the scope of the assault.”
• Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, touring the border communities, praising soldiers and civilians for their courage, added “we are going to wipe this thing called Hamas, ISIS Gaza, from the face of the earth. It isn’t going to exist anymore. We aren’t going to have people slaughtered while we just carry on with our daily lives.”

Inside Gaza: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) continues to attack Hamas targets across the Gaza Strip.

• The IDF has attacked around 3,000 targets. Yesterday’s targets included the Islamic University, which served as a training centre for Hamas engineers, and the home of the father of Hamas Military Wing Commander Mohammed Deif, killing Deif’s brother.
• The IDF conducted a wave of strikes targeting Hamas’s Nukhba elite forces, striking their operational command centres used by Saturday’s infiltrators.
• IAF aircraft struck Muhammad Abu Shamla, a senior Hamas naval operative in the Rafah Brigade. According to the IDF, his home was also used to store weapons.
• The IDF also announced that IAF aircraft destroyed an advanced aircraft detection tool that had been developed by Hamas. Those devices were hidden in solar water heaters.
• Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, related to the continued airstrikes saying, “every place there are Hamas leaders, the IDF is attacking precisely and powerfully.” IDF Spokesperson Hagari said, “we prioritise killing senior officials”.
• Hamas health officials in Gaza say the death toll has risen to 1,200. The number of wounded has reached 5,600. The United Nations said 340,000 people have fled their homes.

The northern front: Panic was provoked early yesterday evening, as 2 million northern residents headed for shelters after an apparent drone incursion from Lebanon, which later proved to be a false alarm.

• Sirens rang across the north, with reports of 15-20 drones apparently crossing into Israeli territory. Shortly after, further sirens sounded amid a suspected terrorist infiltration alert in the northern town of Ma’ayan Baruch, and later in Ma’alot Tarshiha.
• Fearing a large-scale attack on the northern front, IDF Home Front Command warned locals to stay in their homes.
• IDF spokesman Hagari explained that “there was an error, and we are investigating it — we will check if it was a technical fault or human error… The bottom line,” he continued, “is I want to calm the public and say that at this stage, there is no major security incident in the north.”

Context: The inclusion of Gantz and Eisenkot, both formerly IDF Chiefs of Staff, into the inner security cabinet brings vital security experience as part of the inner team to lead the country.

• The inclusion of the more moderate National Unity Party into the collation further dilutes the influence of the more extreme members of the government. As part of the agreement, no legislation unrelated to the war will be advanced by the emergency government.
• At this point neither Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) nor Yisrael Beiteinu’s Avigdor Liberman will join an emergency government, after both called for Smotrich and Ben Gvir to be removed as a condition for joining the government.
• However, Netanyahu and Gantz pledged last night to reserve Lapid a seat in the war cabinet, should he change his mind.
• The visit of the British Foreign Secretary is further indication of strong UK-Israel ties. Underscoring bipartisan support Opposition Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer told his party’s conference this week that “Israel must always have the right to defend her people.”
• Concern remains over the prospect of the substantially better armed Hezbollah answering its fellow Iranian proxy Hamas’s call to join the fighting.
• So far, Hezbollah has only carried out limited provocations along the border. This is being interpreted as the minimum they need to do to show support.
• Hezbollah appears deterred from substantial escalation. Contributing to this was President Biden’s stark warning to other organisations to get involved in the fighting, and the US deployment of aircraft carriers off the Israeli coast.
• Following President Biden’s supportive speech, a first plane loaded with munitions arrived in Israel from the US.
• The overall death toll on the Israeli side from Saturday’s attack stands at 1,200 people. In addition, 3,007 people have been admitted to hospitals, among whom 28 are in critical condition, 345 are in serious condition, 563 are in moderate condition.

Looking ahead: Foreign Secretary Cleverly was the first senior foreign official to visit. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to arrive today.

• A second US aircraft carrier is also expected to arrive. According to Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander of US Central Command, “the arrival of these highly capable forces to the region is a strong signal of deterrence should any actor hostile to Israel consider trying to take advantage of this situation.”

What happened: In a presidential address, President Biden, flanked by his vice president and secretary of state, reassured Israel of their strong support.

• Biden spoke of Hamas as a “pure, unadulterated evil… unleashed on this world.” “The brutality of Hamas — this bloodthirstiness,” he said later, “brings to mind the worst rampages of ISIS.”
• He made explicit the US’s unequivocal backing of Israel in its response. “We must be crystal clear,” he said: “we stand with Israel.  We stand with Israel.  And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself, and respond to this attack.”
• In materialising this support, Biden confirmed that the US was “surging additional military assistance, including ammunition and interceptors to replenish Iron Dome. We’re going to make sure that Israel does not run out of these critical assets to defend its cities and its citizens.” He continued: “The United States has also enhanced our military force posture in the region to strengthen our deterrence.”
• In a thinly-veiled warning to Iran and its other proxies such as Hezbollah, Biden said: “to any country, any organisation, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: Don’t.”

On the Gaza Strip border: The Israeli death toll from the weekend attacks rose to over 1,200, with an additional estimated 150 hostages captive inside Gaza, and with 500 of the over 3,000 Israelis injured still hospitalised – 28 in critical and 345 in serious condition.

• Hamas rockets continue to strike at central and southern Israel, now exceeding 5,000 since Saturday morning.
• Four buildings in Sderot were hit this morning, and a 40-year-old man moderately wounded by shrapnel.
• Despite previous assurances that the terror threat inside Israel was neutralised there were still terror cells operating inside Israel.
• According to the IDF 18 Palestinian terrorists in seven separate incidents were killed inside Israeli in the last day.
• Among the incidents, on Tuesday night, troops killed three Palestinian terrorists in the Ashkelon industrial zone.
• Hamas have again sent frogman to infiltrate from the sea in Zikim, which were again successfully repelled.
• Over 1,000 bodies of terrorists have been found in the Gaza border area.
• As Israeli forces enter Israeli border communities, the scale of the atrocities are being further exposed. These include in Be’eri, where 100 Israelis are though to have been murdered, and in Kfar Aza, where Major General Itai Veruv said: “I’ve served as a combat soldier and officer for 39 years… I’ve never seen anything that comes close to this. It’s not even something that our parents knew. This is something out of the world of our grandfathers back in Europe, from the pogroms and the Holocaust.”

Inside Gaza: The Israeli Air Force is conducting an intensive bombing campaign and has struck over 2,500 Hamas targets.

• Overnight, it launched 200 attacks on the Al-Furqan neighbourhood in Gaza City which is a known Hamas hub.
• Over 70 Hamas targets in the Gaza City district of at-Tuffah were struck, as well as a military structure operated by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
• Over 80 Hamas infrastructure targets were hit in norther Gaza’s Beit Hanoun, including two bank branches used by Hamas, an underground tunnel, several war rooms, and other military installations.
• Another target hit included the Khan Younis home of the father of Mohammad Deif, the senior Hamas military commander. The home of Hamas’s military wing spokesman, known as Abu Obeida, was also hit.
• According to Palestinian sources 950 Gazans have been killed, with 5,000 injured.

Northern front: Missiles were launched at northern Israel from Lebanon last night. 15 rockets were launched from Lebanon – 4 were intercepted by Iron Dome with the rest landing in open areas. Though Hamas claimed responsibility, Hezbollah is considered responsible for any fire emanating from southern Lebanon, and IDF tanks shelled two Hezbollah posts in response.

• An anti-tank guided missile was later launched from Lebanon at an armoured vehicle near the northern town of Avivim. It was claimed by Hezbollah and an Israeli helicopter struck a third Hezbollah site in response.
• Mortar fire was also incoming from Syria, with several crossing into Israeli territory. They landed in open areas, causing no damage. The IDF carried out artillery strikes on the mortars’ source in Syria in response.
• This morning there were more sirens in northern Israel.

Context: The Israeli government has set as its objective to completely destroy all of Hamas’s military capabilities.

• With 300,000 reservists called up – deployed both in the north and the south – the IDF is poised to intensify its engagement. The intensive air force bombing campaign is also understood to be part of the preparation to allow for a ground incursion, by targeting Hamas’s preparations.
• Biden’s warning is being interpreted as a direct threat to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that if Iran’s Lebanese proxy attempts to intervene in the fighting, it will be met with the might of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group recently moved to the Eastern Mediterranean along with a bolstered US fighter aircraft presence.
• Israeli commentators have interpreted Biden’s backing as the most significant support a US president has ever given Israel.
• In adding that “this is not about party or politics; this is about the security of our world, the security of the United States of America,” Biden underscored that Israel’s security is intertwined with that of the free world.
• Biden also confirmed he had spoken yesterday with the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy to discuss “coordinat[ing] our united response”.
• Similarly, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told Sky News that “we stand in solidarity with Israel and the people of Israel in the face of these barbaric acts of terrorism”.
• Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, has also indicated that the US is in negotiations to try to create a safe passage for Gaza’s civilians to leave the Strip.

Looking ahead: As part of the pressure tactic on Hamas, Israel has temporarily blocked all supplies into Gaza.

• According to sources inside Gaza, their power plant only has enough fuel for another 10-12 hours. The main Shifa hospital in Gaza City has enough diesel to power generators for another four days.
• The bombing campaign is seen to be a precursor to a ground operation, that will further target Hamas and possibly include attempts to free the hostages.
• On the Israeli internal political front, negotiations are ongoing to bring Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party into the government.

On 9th October 2023, BICOM Director Richard Pater appeared on BBC News’ “The Context” to discuss the latest developments following Hamas’s attack on Israel.

Following his appearance on Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s LBC programme on Sunday, BICOM Director Richard Pater was interviewed again on the station yesterday. He spoke about Israel’s response to Hamas’s surprise attack over the weekend, and efforts to resolve the plight of the Israeli hostages kidnapped by Hamas.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation last night saying, “We didn’t want this war. It was forced upon us in the most brutal and savage way.”
• “The savage attacks that Hamas perpetrated against innocent Israelis are mindboggling: slaughtering families in their homes, massacring hundreds of young people at an outdoor festival, kidnapping scores of women, children and elderly, even Holocaust survivors. Hamas terrorists bound, burned and executed children.”
• Adding: “Hamas is ISIS and just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas.”
• Israel has now confirmed the death toll has risen to 900, with over 2,600 injured.
• The Israeli Airforce has continued its bombing campaign, striking 1,290 Hamas targets inside the Gaza Strip. The strikes have focused on Hamas’s capacity to fire rockets and other military assets.
• Nevertheless, rockets have continued to be fired into Israel, though since last night at a less intense rate. Overall, there have now been over 4,500 incoming rockets directed at Israel.
• Meanwhile, a Hamas military spokesman yesterday warned that “any targeting of civilian homes without advanced warning will be met regrettably with the execution of one of the enemy civilian hostages we hold, and we will be forced to broadcast this.”
• IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi spoke last night with his US counterpart, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown. They agreed to fully coordinate and to prepare for severe scenarios in the event of a multiple-theatre war. A US Aircraft Carrier is expected to arrive in support soon.

Northern front: Hezbollah fired mortars on Israeli border positions yesterday morning, while in the afternoon four armed men infiltrated Israeli territory and killed two Israelis troops, one of whom was Lt. Col. Alim Abdullah, 40, the deputy commander of the 300th “Baram” Regional Brigade and from the northern Druze village of Yanuh-Jat.

• Two of the infiltrators were killed while the other two fled to Lebanon.
• The IDF responded by bombing positions in southern Lebanon, reportedly killing three Hezbollah operatives. Hezbollah retaliated with an anti-tank missile fired at an IDF vehicle and with more mortar fire on Israel. No further Israeli casualties were reported.
• The direct source of the attacks out of Lebanon is thought to be Palestinian – Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). However, their moves will have needed to be authorised by Hezbollah.
• By engaging Hezbollah operatives on Lebanese soil, Israel is departing from a tradition which has lasted since the end of the 2006 Lebanon War.

Context: The Israel government has articulated its goals as “stripping Hamas of its capabilities”, with Minister Avi Dichter telling Army Radio that the aim was “denying or destroying the military terrorist infrastructure used by Hamas and Islamic Jihad and damaging Hamas’s governance in Gaza.”

• Dichter added: “Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza as governmental organisations and mainly as military organisations won’t remain after this war.”
• The IDF has called up 300,000 reserves who await their deployment.
• Israel has now confirmed it is in full control of the border area, with growing anticipation that there will be a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip. However, its scale and depth are unclear, with plans being formulated by the head of the Southern Command.
• A ground offensive in Gaza has not been launched since Operation Protective Edge nearly ten years ago.
• While IDF doctrine has always provided for the prospect of a multi-front war, an escalation of the conflict with Hezbollah presents a task of an altogether different magnitude than fighting Hamas. The Lebanese group is considerably better trained, equipped, and resourced.
• As a further element of Israel’s response, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant yesterday said of Gaza that “there will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed.”
• Dealing with a massacre and mass casualties on such a scale, it was untenable for Israel to continue supplies as normal into the Gaza Strip.
• It is hoped that pressure will be brought to bear on Hamas to release the hostages.

International support: Israel continues to receive wide and unequivocal backing from its international allies. In a joint statement yesterday, the US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy said that “our countries will support Israel in its efforts to defend itself and its people against such atrocities. We further emphasise that this is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage.”

• The Palace of Westminster was last night lit with the colours of the Israeli flag. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also attended a service at Finchley United Synagogue last night, where he said “I am unequivocal… there are not two sides to these events. There is no question of balance. I stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. The United Kingdom stands with Israel.”
• Ten British Jews are believed to be among the dead and missing.
• Around 5,000 people attended a vigil for Israel near Downing Street last night. Senior members of all three main UK political parties were present, along with the Chief Rabbi.

Looking ahead: Efforts are underway within the international community to resolve the hostage situation. A spokesman for the Qatar foreign ministry said his country has been holding talks with all sides and has suggested a proposal for a first step: female Palestinian prisoners in Israel for female Israeli prisoners in Gaza.

• Meanwhile, sources involved in talks between Prime Minister Netanyahu and National Unity Party Chairman MK Benny Gantz have talked up the prospects of the forming of a national unity government, with a final decision expected this afternoon following coalition meetings. Maariv polling shows 80 percent of Israelis in favour of a unity government.

On 9th October 2023, BICOM Director Richard Pater spoke with Naga Munchetty on BBC Radio 5 Live about the latest developments following Hamas’s attack on Israel.

BICOM has released multiple briefings since Hamas’s surprise attack began on Saturday morning. To track developments as they emerged, see our updates 1, 2, and 3.

What happened: Two days after the initial breach, the IDF has announced that it has regained control of all towns on the Gazan border, but that terrorist cells may remain inside southern Israel.

• This morning, residents of Sderot, Kibbutz Nirim and Kibbutz Alumim were being instructed to remain locked in their homes.
• In Sha’ar Hanegev four armed terrorists were killed in a gunfight with Israeli troops.
• Due to remaining breaches in the border fence, Hamas terrorists are still able to enter into Israel, with the group claiming a cell kidnapped more Israeli civilians yesterday.
• Overall the Israel death toll stands at at least 700, of which around 260 mostly young people were massacred at a music festival. There are around 2,300 people injured.
• There is still continued rocket fire – over 3,300 rockets have so far been fired from the Gaza Strip towards southern Israel.
• According to the terrorist factions, they are holding 130 Israelis as hostages inside the Gaza Strip.
• Yesterday the government appointed Brig. Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch to be the coordinator for the return of the captives and the missing. He has been given a list of more than 350 names of missing people.
• The Israel Air Force have continued to bomb military targets, conducting over 500 strikes overnight inside the Gaza Strip. According to reports from Gaza, 460 Palestinians have been killed so far in IDF strikes. With another 400 terrorists killed inside Israeli territory.
• The Israeli Navy Commandos yesterday captured a senior member of Hamas’s naval unit in Gaza, Muhammad Abu Ghali.
• IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi made his first statement last night. “We can expect long and complex days of fighting,” he said. “We will maintain our state of readiness in all of the theatres and everyone, in their theatre, will do their best. We will continue to attack in all of Gaza, broadly, particularly in those places from where the attacks on our territory originate. The IDF is strong and will operate with strength and will win.”

Context: The attack began early Saturday morning, timed to coincide with the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah in Israel. The well planned sophisticated attack included air, land and sea invasions.

• The attack began with drone strikes against Israeli monitoring equipment on the border fence; both cameras and communication antennae.
• It also included armed terrorists on motorised paragliders. These can be seen on video footage arriving to attack the music festival.
• Heavy explosives were detonated against the security barrier creating around 80 breaches in the concrete fence. According to the IDF assessment, around 800 to 1,000 terrorists infiltrated into Israel through those breaches. They attacked 20 communities and 11 IDF bases.
• In addition, several boats with dozens of armed terrorists attempted to infiltrate into Israel via the sea, but were thwarted by the Israeli navy.
• Military officials believe that Hamas planned the operation for more than a year and had kept it secret even from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which joined after it began. Until this weekend the most recent rounds of fighting were between Israel and PIJ, with Hamas remaining on the sidelines.
• According to the Wall Street Journal senior officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August in order to plan out the invasion into Israeli territory.
• It is thought, given the quality of the powerful explosive material used to detonate the fence, that this was smuggled in under the guidance from Iran.  In addition, the swarm tactics, preparations and  execution suggest Iranian influence.
• Yesterday, the Iranian President spoke with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political bureau, based in Qatar.

For further context on the attacks and their possible repercussions, see our update from yesterday afternoon.

Looking ahead: There remain concerns that Hezbollah in Lebanon could open a second front against Israel, with reports of Hezbollah fighters spread out across the border with Israel.

• As part of support from the US, the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships are on their way to into Israeli waters in the Mediterranean.
• Talks are expected to take place later today to bring in Benny Gantz and his party into an emergency unity government.