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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated October 10, 2023

Richard Pater on BBC News “The Context”

On 9th October 2023, BICOM Director Richard Pater appeared on BBC News’ “The Context” to discuss the latest developments following Hamas’s attack on Israel.

October 10, 2023

Richard Pater’s second interview on LBC

Following his appearance on Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s LBC programme on Sunday, BICOM Director Richard Pater was interviewed again on the station yesterday. He spoke about Israel’s response to Hamas’s surprise attack over the weekend, and efforts to resolve the plight of the Israeli hostages kidnapped by Hamas.

October 10, 2023

Operation Swords of Iron – Update No. 5

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation last night saying, “We didn’t want this war. It was forced upon us in the most brutal and savage way.”
  • “The savage attacks that Hamas perpetrated against innocent Israelis are mindboggling: slaughtering families in their homes, massacring hundreds of young people at an outdoor festival, kidnapping scores of women, children and elderly, even Holocaust survivors. Hamas terrorists bound, burned and executed children.”
  • Adding: “Hamas is ISIS and just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas.”
  • Israel has now confirmed the death toll has risen to 900, with over 2,600 injured.
  • The Israeli Airforce has continued its bombing campaign, striking 1,290 Hamas targets inside the Gaza Strip. The strikes have focused on Hamas’s capacity to fire rockets and other military assets.
  • Nevertheless, rockets have continued to be fired into Israel, though since last night at a less intense rate. Overall, there have now been over 4,500 incoming rockets directed at Israel.
  • Meanwhile, a Hamas military spokesman yesterday warned that “any targeting of civilian homes without advanced warning will be met regrettably with the execution of one of the enemy civilian hostages we hold, and we will be forced to broadcast this.”
  • IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi spoke last night with his US counterpart, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown. They agreed to fully coordinate and to prepare for severe scenarios in the event of a multiple-theatre war. A US Aircraft Carrier is expected to arrive in support soon.

Northern front: Hezbollah fired mortars on Israeli border positions yesterday morning, while in the afternoon four armed men infiltrated Israeli territory and killed two Israelis troops, one of whom was Lt. Col. Alim Abdullah, 40, the deputy commander of the 300th “Baram” Regional Brigade and from the northern Druze village of Yanuh-Jat.

  • Two of the infiltrators were killed while the other two fled to Lebanon.
  • The IDF responded by bombing positions in southern Lebanon, reportedly killing three Hezbollah operatives. Hezbollah retaliated with an anti-tank missile fired at an IDF vehicle and with more mortar fire on Israel. No further Israeli casualties were reported.
  • The direct source of the attacks out of Lebanon is thought to be Palestinian – Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). However, their moves will have needed to be authorised by Hezbollah.
  • By engaging Hezbollah operatives on Lebanese soil, Israel is departing from a tradition which has lasted since the end of the 2006 Lebanon War.

Context: The Israel government has articulated its goals as “stripping Hamas of its capabilities”, with Minister Avi Dichter telling Army Radio that the aim was “denying or destroying the military terrorist infrastructure used by Hamas and Islamic Jihad and damaging Hamas’s governance in Gaza.”

  • Dichter added: “Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza as governmental organisations and mainly as military organisations won’t remain after this war.”
  • The IDF has called up 300,000 reserves who await their deployment.
  • Israel has now confirmed it is in full control of the border area, with growing anticipation that there will be a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip. However, its scale and depth are unclear, with plans being formulated by the head of the Southern Command.
  • A ground offensive in Gaza has not been launched since Operation Protective Edge nearly ten years ago.
  • While IDF doctrine has always provided for the prospect of a multi-front war, an escalation of the conflict with Hezbollah presents a task of an altogether different magnitude than fighting Hamas. The Lebanese group is considerably better trained, equipped, and resourced.
  • As a further element of Israel’s response, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant yesterday said of Gaza that “there will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed.”
  • Dealing with a massacre and mass casualties on such a scale, it was untenable for Israel to continue supplies as normal into the Gaza Strip.
  • It is hoped that pressure will be brought to bear on Hamas to release the hostages.

International support: Israel continues to receive wide and unequivocal backing from its international allies. In a joint statement yesterday, the US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy said that “our countries will support Israel in its efforts to defend itself and its people against such atrocities. We further emphasise that this is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage.”

  • The Palace of Westminster was last night lit with the colours of the Israeli flag. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also attended a service at Finchley United Synagogue last night, where he said “I am unequivocal… there are not two sides to these events. There is no question of balance. I stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. The United Kingdom stands with Israel.”
  • Ten British Jews are believed to be among the dead and missing.
  • Around 5,000 people attended a vigil for Israel near Downing Street last night. Senior members of all three main UK political parties were present, along with the Chief Rabbi.

Looking ahead: Efforts are underway within the international community to resolve the hostage situation. A spokesman for the Qatar foreign ministry said his country has been holding talks with all sides and has suggested a proposal for a first step: female Palestinian prisoners in Israel for female Israeli prisoners in Gaza.

  • Meanwhile, sources involved in talks between Prime Minister Netanyahu and National Unity Party Chairman MK Benny Gantz have talked up the prospects of the forming of a national unity government, with a final decision expected this afternoon following coalition meetings. Maariv polling shows 80 percent of Israelis in favour of a unity government.

October 9, 2023

BICOM Director Richard Pater on BBC Radio 5 Live

On 9th October 2023, BICOM Director Richard Pater spoke with Naga Munchetty on BBC Radio 5 Live about the latest developments following Hamas’s attack on Israel.

October 9, 2023

IDF regains control of border towns

BICOM has released multiple briefings since Hamas’s surprise attack began on Saturday morning. To track developments as they emerged, see our updates 1, 2, and 3.

What happened: Two days after the initial breach, the IDF has announced that it has regained control of all towns on the Gazan border, but that terrorist cells may remain inside southern Israel.

  • This morning, residents of Sderot, Kibbutz Nirim and Kibbutz Alumim were being instructed to remain locked in their homes.
  • In Sha’ar Hanegev four armed terrorists were killed in a gunfight with Israeli troops.
  • Due to remaining breaches in the border fence, Hamas terrorists are still able to enter into Israel, with the group claiming a cell kidnapped more Israeli civilians yesterday.
  • Overall the Israel death toll stands at at least 700, of which around 260 mostly young people were massacred at a music festival. There are around 2,300 people injured.
  • There is still continued rocket fire – over 3,300 rockets have so far been fired from the Gaza Strip towards southern Israel.
  • According to the terrorist factions, they are holding 130 Israelis as hostages inside the Gaza Strip.
  • Yesterday the government appointed Brig. Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch to be the coordinator for the return of the captives and the missing. He has been given a list of more than 350 names of missing people.
  • The Israel Air Force have continued to bomb military targets, conducting over 500 strikes overnight inside the Gaza Strip. According to reports from Gaza, 460 Palestinians have been killed so far in IDF strikes. With another 400 terrorists killed inside Israeli territory.
  • The Israeli Navy Commandos yesterday captured a senior member of Hamas’s naval unit in Gaza, Muhammad Abu Ghali.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi made his first statement last night. “We can expect long and complex days of fighting,” he said. “We will maintain our state of readiness in all of the theatres and everyone, in their theatre, will do their best. We will continue to attack in all of Gaza, broadly, particularly in those places from where the attacks on our territory originate. The IDF is strong and will operate with strength and will win.”

Context: The attack began early Saturday morning, timed to coincide with the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah in Israel. The well planned sophisticated attack included air, land and sea invasions.

  • The attack began with drone strikes against Israeli monitoring equipment on the border fence; both cameras and communication antennae.
  • It also included armed terrorists on motorised paragliders. These can be seen on video footage arriving to attack the music festival.
  • Heavy explosives were detonated against the security barrier creating around 80 breaches in the concrete fence. According to the IDF assessment, around 800 to 1,000 terrorists infiltrated into Israel through those breaches. They attacked 20 communities and 11 IDF bases.
  • In addition, several boats with dozens of armed terrorists attempted to infiltrate into Israel via the sea, but were thwarted by the Israeli navy.
  • Military officials believe that Hamas planned the operation for more than a year and had kept it secret even from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which joined after it began. Until this weekend the most recent rounds of fighting were between Israel and PIJ, with Hamas remaining on the sidelines.
  • According to the Wall Street Journal senior officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August in order to plan out the invasion into Israeli territory.
  • It is thought, given the quality of the powerful explosive material used to detonate the fence, that this was smuggled in under the guidance from Iran.  In addition, the swarm tactics, preparations and  execution suggest Iranian influence.
  • Yesterday, the Iranian President spoke with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political bureau, based in Qatar.

For further context on the attacks and their possible repercussions, see our update from yesterday afternoon.

Looking ahead: There remain concerns that Hezbollah in Lebanon could open a second front against Israel, with reports of Hezbollah fighters spread out across the border with Israel.

  • As part of support from the US, the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships are on their way to into Israeli waters in the Mediterranean.
  • Talks are expected to take place later today to bring in Benny Gantz and his party into an emergency unity government.

October 9, 2023

BICOM Director Richard Pater on LBC

On Sunday 8th October, BICOM Director Richard Pater appeared on Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s LBC radio programme to discuss Hamas’s unprecedented attack on Israel.

Listen here:

October 8, 2023

Operation Swords of Iron – Update No. 3

As of 3.30pm BST. For Update No.1 click here and for No.2 click here.

What’s happened: The Israeli death toll from the surprise Hamas attack launched yesterday morning has today risen to over 600, including around 240 mostly young people massacred at a “Nature Party”. At least 2,048 Israelis are injured, including at least 20 in critical condition and at least 330 seriously wounded.

  • The IDF has killed over 400 terrorists and has retaken some sites infiltrated by the terrorists. It remains locked in gun battles with Hamas terrorists in areas across the south. This morning, police neutralised a terrorist car heading from Gaza towards Ashdod.
  • Rocket fire from Gaza into Israel also continues, with the total launched since yesterday morning now believed to exceed 4,000. This morning, four Israelis were injured – one critically – when a rocket hit Sderot.
  • In response to the Hamas attack, Israel continues airstrikes against terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip. The IDF confirmed that it today hit three terror command centres associated with both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
  • This morning, IDF naval commandos also intercepted and killed a five-person terror cell trying to infiltrate Israel via the Zikim beach.
  • With Israeli family members beginning to publicly identify relatives kidnapped by Hamas from online videos, the number of Israelis taken hostage and transported to the Gaza Strip is still unknown. Unconfirmed reports suggest there could be up to 100, while an Egyptian mediator claimed today that there are at least “several dozen”.
  • The IDF has established a situation room dedicated to the hostages, and reports suggest there has been at least one Brit kidnapped, with a second Brit named amongst those killed.
  • The IDF has begun evacuating civilians from southern border towns.
  • In parallel to the south, in the north this morning mortar shells were launched at Israeli military sites in the Mount Dov region on the Lebanon border. Israel responded with artillery fire towards the area of the launches.
  • The IDF also confirmed that it had launched a drone strike against a Hezbollah tent constructed over the Blue Line, and that it then fired warning shots when Hezbollah operatives came to try to rebuild it.
  • There have also been extensive troop reinforcements deployed to the northern border, with concern remaining that Hezbollah might extend its mortar fire and other provocation into more serious engagement with the fighting.
  • Elsewhere, two Israelis and their Egyptian tour guide were shot dead in the Egyptian city of Alexandria.

Context: Yesterday was the single deadliest for Israeli civilians in the history of the country.

  • Israel has received considerable support from international allies. Prime Minister Netanyahu has spoken to a range of world leaders today, including Prime Minister Sunak, who expressed unreserved support for Israel’s right to defend itself as necessary.
  • However, questions are being asked about Israel’s lack of preparedness for such an attack; the apparent ease with which infiltrators breached the border fence; and the speed of the ground and airforce deployment.
  • The military’s immediate focus remains securing all southern areas infiltrated by the terrorists, and on fully resealing the border to prevent further infiltration.
  • Some had previously hoped that Hamas had displayed pragmatism, and that its priority remained solidifying its own power and improving the Gazan economy. In recent weeks the conversation has centred on increasing the number of worker permits, increasing imports and exports, and expanding the Gazan fishing zone. Hamas has been shown, instead, to be utterly committed to the merciless slaughter of Jews and to the goal of destroying the State of Israel.
  • Military officials and analysts had warned for some time that Israel’s internal divisions – exposed most glaringly by the judicial reform – were being interpreted by its enemies as a sign of weakness ripe for exploiting. However, fear was most acute concerning Israel’s northern front, and the better armed and financed – and assumedly less pragmatic – Hezbollah.
  • The nature of Hamas’s penetration is becoming clearer. Having first used drones to attack Israeli observation towers and weapons systems on the border, terrorists on paragliders then flew over the border in the wake of a massive bombardment of rockets into southern and central Israel. Finally, holes were blown in the fence, allowing the further infiltration of Hamas terrorists.
  • Speculation over the level of involvement from Hamas’s Iranian patron is considerable, with the apparent sophistication of the explosives used to breach the fence an indication that materiel was smuggled via Iran.
  • The attacks are also being interpreted, in part, as an Iranian response to Israel’s growing integration in the region, and as a message to states looking to follow Morocco, Bahrain, and the UAE’s lead in normalising relations with Israel – not least Saudi Arabia.
  • Hezbollah today warned both Israel and the US of a potential escalation of the conflict. The Iranian-backed Lebanese terrorist organisation has a considerably larger and more sophisticated arsenal of rockets than Hamas, including the ability to turn rockets into precision-guided missiles.

Looking ahead: The scale of Israel’s response, once the immediate objectives of re-securing the south and border have been accomplished, remains to be seen, with troops deployed ready for a potential ground assault.

  • The risks and benefits of a ground invasion will be carefully weighed and considered only if a ground invasion can accomplish necessary objectives which air strikes cannot.
  • Alternatives may also be considered. Following Energy Minister Israel Katz’s cutting of electricity to Gaza yesterday, other non-kinetic options may be considered in a bid to force Hamas to release hostages. While Israel is always reluctant to pursue measures targeted at Gaza’s civilian population, it could be argued that the scale of yesterday’s attacks is such that the traditional rules of engagement have shifted.

October 7, 2023

Operation Swords of Iron – Update No. 2

This News Update was written at 6.30pm BST. For our earlier update, click here.

  • The Israeli death toll from Hamas’s surprise attack has risen to over 200. At least 1,100 Israelis are known to have been injured.
  • At this time, there is continued rocket fire from Gaza towards central and southern Israel, with over 3,000 launches.
  • The IDF has are currently operating in 22 border communities, going house to house to ensure that all terrorists are cleared from the area.
  • The IDF has also confirmed earlier reports that they are engaged in an ongoing hostage situation in Ofakim and Beeri.
  • There have been numerous accounts of hostages, both military and civilian, taken back into Gaza by terrorists.
  • The IDF has now confirmed that it has re-taken from Hamas the Re’im military base in southern Israel, home to its Gaza Division.
  • As well as many breaches of the land border, there were also infiltration attempts by sea, with the IDF intercepting at least four boats, including two speedboats – in total dozens of terrorists onboard.
  • 31 regular IDF battalions are already in operation in the area around the Gaza Strip and Southern Israel, with a further four reservist divisions en route.
  • In response to the invasion, Israel is striking Hamas targets inside the Gaza Strip. The so-called “Palestine Tower” in Gaza City – a known Hamas base – was struck and destroyed earlier, after an Israeli warning had been given for civilians to clear the area.
  • Due to the unprecedented nature of the attack, Energy Minister Israel Katz has made an unprecedented decision to cut the power supply to Gaza.
  • According to Palestinian sources, over 160 Palestinians have been killed – the vast majority are presumed to be combatants.
  • In parallel to launching the operation from Gaza, Hamas has called for West Bank Palestinians, Hezbollah, and Israeli Arabs to join the fighting.
  • Meanwhile, on the Norther border, close to Metula, Hezbollah operatives were filmed in a motorcycle convey close to the border. Israeli forces fired warning shots. The Northern Command remains on high alert.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has spoken with US President Biden and told him that a “prolonged and powerful campaign would be required in which Israel would win”.
  • Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has also spoken with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, who said that the Pentagon will work in the coming days “to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and protect civilians from indiscriminate violence and terrorism.”
  • Israeli President Isaac Herzog released a statement saying: “Today we saw the true face of Hamas. A terrorist army whose only goal is the cold-blooded murder of innocent men, women, and children. Supported and directed by their proxy commanders in Iran, they carried out an unprovoked, heinous attack against the Jewish state on a Jewish holy day. Innocent civilians were massacred and wounded, and many are still under attack. The State of Israel will take all measures necessary to eliminate this clear and immediate danger to our citizens. Israel will overcome in the face of all challenges. I call upon the family of nations – this war waged against us marks a line in the sand. Now is the time to hear clear, unequivocal condemnation of Hamas, its allies, and its backers in Iran. Now is the time to stand firm with Israel in support of its just and moral battle in the face of an abhorrent enemy.”
  • Opposition leader Yair Lapid, who earlier today joined other senior opposition figures in expressing full unity with the government, also made public an offer he apparently made to Netanyahu earlier today to form an “emergency, narrow, professional government” unity government for the duration of the conflict.
  • A senior adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was earlier quoted by a news agency supporting the attacks, while at a parliamentary session Iranian lawmakers chanted “Down with Israel,” “Down with America,” and “Welcome Palestine,” according to a video published by Tasnim news agency.

October 7, 2023

Hamas launches surprise attack

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has confirmed that Israel is at war, with armed terrorists currently operating in various population centres across southern Israel after a surprise Hamas attack was launched this morning from the Gaza Strip.
  • The terrorists have infiltrated Israel by breaching the Gaza barrier, amid the firing of at least 2,200 rockets into southern and central Israel – including towards Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
  • The Magen David Adom emergency service says at least 22 people have been killed, according to Hebrew-language media reports, and there are reports of hospitals across Israel receiving at least 545 patients.
  • Hamas has issued videos purportedly showing its terrorists breaching barriers protecting Israeli border communities.
  • Further, unconfirmed, reports have claimed that terrorists have taken hostages, both dead and alive.
  • The attack occurred in the midst of Simchat Torah, when hundreds of thousands of Israelis were on their way to the synagogues to celebrate with their communities and families.
  • In response, the IDF has launched “Operation Iron Swords” and has announced a widespread call up in all areas, expected to draft tens of thousands of Israelis. The Israeli Air Force has struck Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, including 17 military compounds and four headquarters.
  • Gun battles between IDF troops and Hamas terrorists have taken or are taking place in multiple locations near the border, including in Kfar Aza, Sderot, Sufa, Nahal Oz, Magen, Be’eri and the Re’im military base.
  • Six and a half hours after the initial attack, Israeli forces’ priority is on engaging remaining terrorists in Israel and resealing the border to prevent further infiltrations.
  • The IDF’s top spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said: “At this time, the IDF is reinforcing the south and the communities surrounding the Gaza Strip with several operational forces. Operational commanders are arriving to manage the combat in each location. In parallel to this, we have begun a wide mobilisation of reservists for all IDF units.”
  • Israeli Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai said that the police are managing “a number of war zones together with the IDF and with special units and all the additional forces that have been launched towards the Gaza Strip.” He urged all citizens to stay in their homes and that “we know about civilians who are barricaded in all kinds of places.”
  • Five hours after the start of the attack, Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed Israelis in a televised statement, saying “citizens of Israel, we are at war.” He continued: “And we will win. The enemy will pay a price like they have never known before.” He then convened a meeting of Israel’s Security Cabinet early this afternoon.
  • Israel has no interest in harming the civilian population of the Gaza Strip and has always made the distinction of only targeting combatants and terror infrastructure. However, the terrorist organisations also know this and deliberately embed themselves amongst the civilian population, shooting at Israel whilst using their own population as human shields.
  • Opposition leaders expressed a commitment to an iron-clad united Israeli front. Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid, National Unity leader Benny Gantz, Yisrael Beitenu chief Avigdor Lieberman and Labour party head Merav Michaeli said in a joint statement: “In days like these there is no opposition and no coalition in Israel.” They “are united in the face of terrorism” and the need to respond with “a strong and determined fist. It is necessary to mobilise the international community against terrorism.”
  • Hamas has labelled the coordinated attack “Operation Al-Aqsa Deluge”, and claimed it is in response to (non-existent) Israeli “desecration” of Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque.
  • It comes only a week after calm appeared to have been restored to the Gazan border, following weeks of violent rioting.
  • International mediation from the US, UN, and Qatar seemed to have helped to reach an understanding between Israel and Hamas, allowing the reopening of the Erez Crossing and the re-entry of 17,000 Gazan workers into Israel.
  • Hezbollah has issued a statement praising the attacks and saying they are a lesson to those Arab states which would look to normalise relations with Israel.
  • In Jerusalem, Shabbat prayers have been cancelled, as police and IDF troops clash with Palestinians in the East of the city.
  • The Magen David Adom emergency service has called on Israelis to donate blood.
  • All schools south of Netanya and north of the central Negev are to be closed and businesses can only be opened if there is ready access to bomb shelters, the military says. Gatherings are also restricted to 10 people outdoors and 50 people indoors in those areas, the IDF Home Front Command says.
  • Condemnation of the attacks has come from across the UK political spectrum. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Israel has “an absolute right to defend itself” and that he was “shocked by this morning’s attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israeli citizens.”
  • Foreign Secretary James Cleverly wrote on social media: “The UK unequivocally condemns the horrific attacks by Hamas on Israeli civilians. The UK will always support Israel’s right to defend itself.”
  • Opposition Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “I utterly condemn the ongoing attacks on Israel and her citizens. There is no justification for this act of terror which is being perpetrated by those who seek to undermine any chance for future peace in the region. Israel has a right to defend herself.”

October 2, 2023

Augmented security forces in Jerusalem, whilst Gaza remains quiet

What’s happened: Thousands of Jewish worshippers gathered at the Western Wall today for the traditional priestly blessing.

  • Hundreds of Israeli police and border patrol have been deployed in the Old City and the Jerusalem seamline.
  • In addition, 750 Jews visited the Temple Mount yesterday, to coincide with the Sukkot festival.
  • Meanwhile, Israel has reopened the Erez crossing to allow 18,000 Gazans with work permits to enter into Israel.
  • The decision followed two weeks of violent rioting on the Gaza border, which led to the closure.
  • The understandings to reopen the crossing was achieved through Egypt and Qatari mediation.
  • The rioting had been led by the “Rebel Youth” organisation, which has affiliations with both Hamas and Islamic Jihad. They confirmed ending the violent protests but added in their statement, “if the Qataris cut even one dollar, we will unsheathe our swords against the occupier.”
  • Hamas and the Rebel Youth are also threatening a resumption of violence in connection with Jews visiting the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.
  • In parallel, members of the Israeli Security Cabinet convened yesterday to discuss a range of security issues, including sensitivity over the Temple Mount. Notably, the meeting excluded Minister Ben Gvir.

Context: Sukkot is one of the three festivals connected with an ascent to Jerusalem. Jews traditionally pray at the Western Wall. Since 1967, the Status Quo agreement ensures that all non-Muslims are allowed to visit Temple Mount but not pray.

  • Ben Gvir is part of the campaign to extend Jewish rights on the Temple Mount, whilst Netanyahu has vigorously defended the status quo.
  • Although the Temple Mount falls under the purview of Ben Gvir, he was excluded from yesterday’s meeting, as the latest sign of the prime minister’s growing frustration with his contrarian approach.
  • Last month Ben Gvir tried to restrict visitation rights of Palestinian security prisoners. Despite that also being part of his ministerial responsibility, he was overruled in the Security Cabinet by the IDF, Shin Bet and the National Security Council.
  • The Israeli-Hamas understandings are not new and resemble the agreements reached after Operation Guardian of the Walls in 2021. Israel is prepared to facilitate economic relief measures as long as there is no violence.
  • Over the summer the Israeli government approved the development of the Gaza Marine natural gas field off the Gaza coast.
  • The Rebel Youth organisation is thought to take instructions from the Hamas leadership. In turn the Rebel Youth led the incitement to violence, which included the use of powerful explosive devices, attempts to damage the security fence and infiltrate into Israel, as well as instances of live fire. Protestors also launched incendiary balloons into southern Israel. In response, Israel struck Hamas military targets, deploying drones, helicopters, and tank fire.
  • As well as demands on Israel, Hamas is demanding Qatar increase its donations to poor Gazan families and maintain its supply of fuel for the Gazan power station.
  • There is also tension between Hamas leadership and the Qatari government, with the Qataris keen for Hamas to develop its own longer-term solutions and wean themselves off reliance on Qatari funds.
  • Overall, Hamas use the Gazan protestors as a pressure lever, whilst continuing to encourage terror attacks emanating from the West Bank and using the issue of the Temple Mount/Al Aqsa as a motivation for attacks.

Looking ahead: Israeli security forces remain on high alert, particularly in the Jerusalem and the West Bank until the end of the Sukkot festival next weekend.

  • Hundreds of Jews are expected in visit the Temple Mount in the next few days.
  • If the Gaza Strip remains quiet Israel is expected to:
    • Increase the number of entry permits for Gazan workers.
    • Expand the fishing zone off the coast of the Gaza Strip.
    • Allow more goods to be exported out of Gaza and allow the import of more equipment.

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