LATEST

Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated October 23, 2023

IDF continues aerial campaign

What’s happening: The IDF has confirmed that over 320 military targets have been hit inside in the Gaza Strip in the last day.

  • Targets have included, “tunnels containing Hamas terrorists, dozens of operational command centres, some of which concealed Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists, military compounds, and observation posts.”
  • In addition, “the IDF struck targets that posed a threat to forces in the area surrounding the Gaza Strip who are preparing for ground operations, including dozens of mortar shell and anti-tank missile launch posts.”
  • Yesterday there was also an exchange of fire close to the Gaza border fence.  One IDF soldier was killed after troops entered Gaza in an effort to collect intelligence on the kidnapped Israelis.
  • There was also an incident of IDF mistaken fire towards an Egyptian observation tower. According to the Egyptian military statement, “several of the observation personnel were slightly injured. The Israeli side immediately expressed its regret for the unintentional incident and is conducting an investigation of the circumstances of the incident.”
  • In parallel more is entering Gaza from Egypt. Israel consents to food water and medical supplies under the condition that it goes to the civilian population and not to Hamas.
  • President Yitzhak Herzog revealed yesterday in an interview to Sky News that Hamas fighters were carrying instructions on how to make chemical weapons. The material on a USB stick found on one of the terrorists from October 7 showed that Hamas planned to use cyanide against civilians. Herzog said, “It’s al-Qaida material. We’re dealing with ISIS, al-Qaida and Hamas.”
  • Yesterday Hamas continued to fire rockets into Israel, now totalling over 7,600. No rockets were fired overnight, though sirens were once again in Ashkelon this morning.
  • The IDF also confirmed that a total of 550 rockets have misfired and landed inside Gaza Strip.
  • In the north the IDF continued to target cells of anti-tank missile launchers.
  • Overnight Israel targeted Hezbollah military infrastructure including a military compound and an observation position.
  • Last night Hezbollah announced their 27th fatality, with Israel claiming to have struck 20 Hezbollah cells along the border.

Context: The government has set the military two main objectives to destroy Hamas’s military capacity and removing Hamas from controlling the Strip.

  • The aerial bombing campaign is currently only in its first stage, before an anticipated ground incursion.
  • The latest confirmed number of hostages in Hamas captivity has risen to 222 including 30 babies and children.
  • There is also concern over the connectivity between the north and the south. So far Hezbollah has joined the fighting but not the war. One scenario is that they are waiting for a ground incursion in the south to expand their range of targets deeper into Israel.
  • With a potential escalation in the north, Israel faces a much more powerful and capable enemy, with advanced precision missiles and anti-aircraft munitions.
  • Iran not only funds and supports Hezbollah and Palestinian terror organisations, but also backs the Houthis in Yemen that launched missiles and drones (intercepted by the US) towards Israel at the end of last week. They also sponsor militias in and Iraq that could also attack Israel.

Looking ahead: The IDF has declared its ‘readiness’ for a ground incursion and is awaiting instruction from the political echelon.

  • One reason for the delay could be related to international mediation via the US and Qatar over the release of some more of the hostages.
  • Concern continues that Iran is encouraging its proxies to attack Israel, and with the international community distracted, they could also be using this time to advance their uranium enrichment, and even break-out over the nuclear threshold.

October 22, 2023

IDF operated on four fronts overnight

The IDF continues to attack Hamas inside Gaza, to respond and target Hezbollah in Lebanon, operate again terror infrastructure in Jenin and strike airports inside . In addition, Israel acted on fifth front to prevent a cyber-attack on an Israeli hospital.   

Hamas releases two American hostages while Israel confirms an additional 210 (including 30 babies and children) remain held by terrorists inside Gaza.    

Gaza Strip: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) continued its bombing campaign again Hamas military infrastructure.

  • Despite over 3,000 targets struck in central and northern Gaza, Hamas has still been able to continue launching rockets directed primarily at the Gaza periphery but also sporadic attacks on central Israel.
  • The IDF Spokesperson’s office announced that “fighter jets struck dozens of Hamas terror targets in the Gaza Strip, some located in multi-story buildings. Throughout the day, dozens of terror tunnel shafts, weapons, headquarters, command centres and mosques used as operational war rooms by Hamas terrorists were struck.”
  • In addition, “the IDF killed two terror operatives near the security fence between Israel and the Gaza Strip, a Nukhba terror operative and additional terrorists.”
  • The Shin Bet has formed a special new unit called Nili whose mission is to find and kill every single Nukhba commando who took part in the massacre on October 7.
  • Last Saturday, the commander of Hamas’s Nukhba unit, Ali Qadhi, was killed. Qadhi was one of the people who led the assault on the Gaza periphery. The following day, Billal Al Kedra, who led the attack inside Kibbutz Nirim was killed too.

Lebanon: Hezbollah continued to escalate the fighting out of Lebanon.

  • Hezbollah continued their attack including towards Har Dov yesterday, where 20 launches were identified.
  • There were several more cases of anti-tank missiles aimed at IDF posts on the border.
  • Hezbollah have so far fired over 200 rockets and mortars at Israel’s northern border.  There have been five attempted infiltrations, over 50 instances of anti-tank missiles fired. At least six Israelis have been killed.
  • In response Israel has returned fire to the source and targeted the cells trying to infiltrate and fire anti-tank missiles. Hezbollah has admitted 16 operatives have been killed, whilst Israel estimates the number to around 30.
  • Israel plans to evacuate another 14 communities close to the Lebanese border, in addition to the 28 communities already evacuated that lie within two km of the border.

Jenin: For the first time in almost 20 years the IAF carried out an aerial strike in the West Bank.

  • The target was an underground terror compound underneath the Al-Ansar mosque in Jenin.
  • According to the IDF, “The mosque contained a terror cell of Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror operatives who were organising an imminent terror attack.” Palestinian sources reported two people killed and three injured.
  • The targets were responsible for several terror attacks over the last months, including last weekend when they planted an explosive device that was detonated remotely by a mobile phone.
  • The mosque was used by the terrorists as a command centre to plan the attacks and as a base for their execution.

: According to Syrian media, Israel attacked airports in Damascus and Aleppo last night.

  • Although Israel does not formally take credit for these attacks, it is reported to be the third time in the last two weeks that airports have been struck, presumably to prevent Iran sending more shipments of weapons.

Cyber: Tel Aviv’s Sheba Hospital went offline yesterday over fears of an impending cyberattack.

  • All of the computers in the hospital were disconnected from the internet.
  • The National Cyber Authority and the Health Ministry confirmed, “proactive measures are taken to temporarily suspend the availability of remote connectivity. At this stage that has not impacted the hospital’s performance, and service to patients has continued normally.”

Context: Iran continues to encourage various terrorist proxies to keep up a sustained attack against Israel across a number of fronts.

  • It is not yet clear if Hezbollah is waiting for a ground incursion into Gaza as the trigger to expand their targets.
  • Although the fighting has escalated, they have not yet extended their rocket range beyond the border, or unleashed their elite Radwan forces into Israel.
  • Hezbollah’s primary task is to serve to protect the Iranian regime if Iran was directly attacked. For this reason they are joined the fighting, but not the war… yet.
  • More details emerged over another Iranian proxy. At the end of last week the Houthis in Yemen had fired four cruise missiles and 15 armed drones towards Israel. The attacks were intercepted by US warships based in the Red Sea, 1,000 km from Israel.
  • The missiles and the drones were manufactured by Iran.
  • This was the latest example of US support for Israel’s war effort.
  • The two hostages released were both US citizens who were visiting Israel for the holiday period from Chicago. They were released following diplomatic pressure from the US on Qatar. The gesture is being interpreted as an effort by Hamas leadership in Qatar to improve Hamas’s image, despite still holding at least 210 hostages.
  • Following visits last week by President Biden, Prime Minister Sunak, Chancellor Scholtz, the latest visitors to Israel included Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Christodoulides of Cyprus. Both leaders met with both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog.
  • The first 20 trucks of entered Gaza via Egypt through the Rafah crossing.

Looking ahead: The IDF has completed preparations for the ground incursion into Gaza. In the first phase the IDF will aim to take control of territory inside the Strip, then to dismantle Hamas’s operational and governmental infrastructure. This could take several months.

  • The Israeli working assumption is that the Houthis are likely to try to fire more missiles and send more attack drones towards Israel.
  • Shiite militias in Iraq could also join the offensive with missiles and drones from Iraqi territory.

October 22, 2023

Richard Pater on LBC

On 22nd October, BICOM Director Richard Pater appeared on LBC to discuss the latest developments in Israel’s response to Hamas’s attacks of October 7th.

October 20, 2023

BICOM Background Briefing: Operation Swords of Iron

“Parents butchered, using their bodies to try to protect their children; stomach-turning reports of babies being killed; entire families slain; young people massacred while attending a musical festival… women raped, assaulted, paraded as trophies. There are moments in this life — I mean this literally — when a pure unadulterated evil is unleashed on this world. The people of Israel lived through one such moment this weekend [at] the bloody hands of the terrorist organisation Hamas — a group whose stated purpose for being is to kill Jews.” (Joe Biden, October 2023)

PART 1: WHAT HAPPENED ON OCTOBER 7 2023?

On October 7th, over 2,000 Hamas terrorists, in concert with a smaller number of Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists, infiltrated Israel from Gaza and conducted a brutal, sustained, and unprovoked attack on Israel’s southern communities. Senior Hamas Official Ali Baraka subsequently admitted that the group had been secretly planning the invasion for two years.

Over 1400 Israelis, the overwhelming majority civilians, were murdered in the attack – a figure far surpassing the deaths in the previous 19 years of conflict – and at least 4,121 injured. At least 199, and perhaps as many as 250, Israelis, including babies, children, and the elderly, were also taken hostage and transported to the Gaza Strip. The dead and missing include at least 16 Brits. Fifty-four Israeli communities have been evacuated.

In the days since the attacks, Hamas has continued to fire rockets at Israel – over 7,000 as of October 18, including 450 that have landed inside Gaza itself.

It has also called openly for other fronts in the Islamic “resistance” to join the fight against Israel, including its better manned, funded, trained, and equipped fellow Iranian proxy Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Although discouraged from mounting a serious escalation – not least by US President Biden’s resolute support for Israel and his warning to others not to escalate – Hezbollah has launched a series of mortar and anti-tank missile strikes on communities in Israel’s northern border. Palestinian factions operating out of Southern Lebanon have also launched attacks.

Part 2: WHO ARE HAMAS?

2.1  What is Hamas’ ideology?

The de facto sovereign authority in Gaza since 2007 since seizing power in a brutal coup against its Fatah rival, Hamas is a radical Islamist movement that considers the destruction of Israel a religious imperative. In this respect, it does not differ from the radical Salafis of al-Qaeda or ISIS jihadis. Indeed, an ISIS flag was found in one of the communities after the deadly attack on October 7.

With its roots in the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas is built on an ideology of hostility to the West, hatred of Jews and absolute rejection of Jewish sovereignty anywhere in the Middle East.

Hamas’ ideology is violently anti-Israel and antisemitic. The Hamas Charter of founding principles opens with the statement: “Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it.” The Hamas Charter targets Jews as Jews. It includes a religious hadith: “The Day of Judgment will not come about until Muslims fight the Jews (killing the Jews), when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say O Muslims, O Abdullah, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him.”

Hamas views Israel as a foreign entity in the Middle East and seeks its erasure from the regional map. In 2021, Deputy Chairman of Hamas’s Political Bureau Musa Abu Marzouk said “Israel will come to an end just like it began… The day will come when people ask: ‘Where did Israel go?'” In Palestinian media, Hamas continually exhorts Palestinians to violence. Al-Aqsa TV (Hamas) on 9 July 2014 broadcast this message: “Zionists, wait and see terror attacks, stabbing everywhere. Wait for suicide attacks on every bus, café and street. Wait for the rage and for revenge for Gaza, wait for the flames of the West Bank, inside you.”

The Hamas Charter rejects all possible compromise with Israel and all possibility of a negotiated peace in the following terms: “There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavours.”

Hamas admit they do not regard a two-state solution as a basis for peace, but as an ‘interim solution’ only, and as part of their long-term strategy of wearing down and eliminating the Jewish state.

Hamas is a terrorist organization. Both the military and political wings of Hamas are classified as a terrorist organisation by the US, UK, and the EU.

2.2  What is Hamas’ military capacity?

At times of full mobilisation, Hamas is able to call on between 40,000 and 50,000 operatives, a rocket arsenal in excess of 30,000 and drones built with the assistance of Iran.  Hamas’ missile capacity also includes adapted Iranian-made Fateh-110 road mobile surface-to-surface ballistic missiles with a range of 200 km and capable of carrying warheads weighing up to 500kg. While previously Hamas relied on the smuggling of rockets from Iran and , in recent years domestic production has become the norm.

Hamas has tried to overwhelm Iron Dome. While Israel’s Iron Dome system is highly effective at intercepting rockets projected to land in populated areas, it can be overwhelmed by the simultaneous firing of large numbers of rockets.

2.3  How does Hamas rule Gaza?

Hamas has turned Gaza into a brutal and repressive regime. Arms and weaponry are being smuggled in at an alarming rate. The movement suppress opposition, media, and Christians and has imposed a stringent form of Islamic rule in the Strip. The very fabric of daily life in Gaza is changing. Islamic observance has changed from social norm to legal compulsion.

Human rights abuses. In 2012 Human Rights Watch published a damning report about human rights violations committed by Hamas in Gaza. The report highlighted “extensive violations by Hamas security services, including warrantless arrests, failure to inform families promptly of detainees’ whereabouts, and subjecting detainees to torture.” It also documented “violations of detainees’ rights by prosecutors and courts” and pointed out that “Military courts frequently try civilians, in violation of international law.”

2.4 What role does Iran play?

Hamas is a key tentacle in what Israeli security officials refer to as the Iranian “Octopus”. Hamas, along with PIJ the lone Sunni element in the Iranian axis – which also includes the better trained and equipped Hezbollah in Lebanon, and – benefits from Iranian funding, training, and weapons supply. Iran is a nuclear threshold state committed both to the destruction of the State of Israel and the brutal suppression of its own people. While its specific involvement in the planning of the Hamas attacks of October 7 remains to be seen, it is nigh impossible that Hamas would have acted without Iranian approval at a senior level. Last month, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian held a closed meeting with Hamas and PIJ leaders in Beirut. Amir-Abdollahian flew into Beirut once more on October 12th, where he was met by Hamas’s Lebanon representative Ahmed Abdulhadi. Abdulhadi had earlier told Newsweek of the October 7th attacks: “We coordinated with Hezbollah and with Iran and the Axis [of Resistance] before, during and after the battle at the highest level.”

Part 3: ISRAELI POLICY TOWARDS GAZA 2007 – 2023

Hamas’ violent takeover of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in 2007 – following Israel’s complete withdrawal from the Strip in 2005 – provided dilemmas over how to protect the country against Hamas’ military capacity, and how to deny Hamas legitimacy or assistance whilst avoiding a humanitarian crisis. In this context, five main scenarios presented themselves: full scale war, limited military operation against Hamas, ceasefire, a narrow political arrangement, and long-term agreement / Hudna. With the gaps between the sides were too large for a Hudna, and a full scale war was considered too costly, the sides generally moved between limited military operations, ceasefires and narrow political agreements.

3.1 How did Israel seek to defend itself against Hamas?

With Hamas unwilling to recognise Israel or reject terrorism, Israel implemented a blockade of Gaza to prevent weapons smuggling. While many human rights group claim the ‘siege’ was illegal, a 2011 UN Report written by former New Zealand Prime Minister Sir Geoffrey Palmer stated that it was a legitimate security response. “Israel faces a real threat to its security from militant groups in Gaza. The naval blockade was imposed as a legitimate security measure in order to prevent weapons from entering Gaza by sea and its implementation complied with the requirements of international law.”

Israel also developed Iron Dome and an underground barrier to protect itself against Hamas missiles and tunnels that sought to allow terrorists to infiltrate Israel and carry out attacks. The subterranean barrier cost approximately $700 million.

3.2 How did Israel respond to Hamas rocket fire?

Israel launched major military operations in 2008-9 (Cast Lead), 2012 (Pillar of Defence), and 2014 (Protective Edge) – as well as shorter operations in 2019 and 2022 – in order to weaken Hamas and restore deterrence after escalating rocket fire by Hamas and PIJ. Israel’s goal was generally to restore the status quo ante, to weaken and confine Hamas but not to depose it. Hamas meanwhile tried to negotiate an end to the blockade in return for a ceasefire, in each case without success. Egypt generally played a critical role in brokering ceasefires.

3.3 How did Israel try to stabilize the situation in Gaza?

Israel approved several policies to try and calm the situation in Gaza and maintain a ceasefire. From 2018, Israel allowed Qatar to deliver approximately $30 million monthly in cash to Gaza through an Israeli-controlled crossing. The Qatari aid went to some 100,000 needy families, fuel to operate Gaza’s sole power plant, and to pay the salaries of civil servants in the Hamas-run government. As of 2023, total Qatari aid to Gaza was thought to reach more than $2.1 billion.

During times of relative quiet, Israel expanded its civilian humanitarian policy, including allowing increased imports and exports from Gaza, and extending the fishing zone and the quota of Palestinian daily workers who could enter Israel. During 2022, the numbers of daily workers swelled from 5,000 to 20,000 Palestinians.

Israel also provided 50% of the electricity in Gaza for free (technically covered by the Palestinian Authority, but as the bill was never paid and the amount grew, the debt was ultimately written off.) Despite the many international aid funds provided to Hamas after Operation Protective Edge in 2014, it did not restore the electrical infrastructure in Gaza.

3.4 Were there attempts to reconstruct Gaza?

It was widely acknowledged by the Israeli security establishment that easing conditions inside the Gaza Strip would help reduce the chances of another round of intense violence. In this context, Israel tried to engage the international community to reconstruction problems within Gaza.

Construction material was allowed in to Gaza following the 2014 Operation Protective Edge. More than one million tonnes of construction materials entered Gaza through Israel under the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism, with around 100,000 residents receiving materials to rebuild homes.

Israel was part of an effort led by Egypt and the UN Envoy to provide humanitarian and economic solutions for Gaza, which included a desalination plan, a new electricity line from Israel into Gaza, sewage solutions and more jobs. Israel also approved in principle the supply of additional water and electricity, along with the construction of a new natural gas line. Several Israeli politicians raised the idea of building a port in Gaza, or creating an artificial island off the coast to ease the humanitarian situation. According to the plan, the island would be connected to the Gaza mainland by a bridge that would be subject to security inspection.

However, one major sticking point was Hamas’ refusal to relinquish its control of Gaza or disarm. Moreover, the PA was unwilling to assume any direct responsibility for Gaza’s borders, not wanting to do anything to assist Hamas – which it saw as an enemy – and believing Hamas would not allow it real control inside the Gaza Strip. Nor was the PA willing to transfer salaries to Hamas officials.

Reconstruction efforts ultimately failed on the rock of Hamas rejectionism. With no alternative to Hamas control, and with Hamas unwilling to commit to demilitarize (or to mis-use the large amounts of money that would flow into the Strip) all of the major humanitarian ideas came to naught. Moreover, some of the money and building materials that did arrive in Gaza earmarked for reconstruction were commandeered by Hamas to build offensive tunnels.

Despite this rejectionism, Israeli efforts continued. In 2023, Israel approved the development of “Gaza Marine”, a small offshore gas field near Gaza that designed to provide both Gaza and the West Bank with revenue and energy independence.

Part 4: OPERATION SWORDS OF IRON

The scale and barbarity of the October 7 attacks have changed to the Israeli security paradigm in Gaza from the traditional one of containment to one pursuing the removal of Hamas as the de facto sovereign in Gaza, and the removal of its terrorist capacity. Such an aim is commensurate with the threat Hamas has demonstrated it possesses, and its own willingness to change the paradigm to one of all-out war.

4.1 What are Israel’s war aims?

Israel has announced four key war aims for Operation Swords of Iron:

  1. Toppling the Hamas regime and destroying its military capabilities.
  2. Removing the threat of terrorism from the Gaza Strip.
  3. Maximum effort to return the hostages.
  4. Defending the state’s borders and its citizens.

Related Israeli security aims are to restore Israelis’ confidence in the ability of the government and IDF to provide for their security – a confidence shaken by the surprise nature of the attacks and the speed of response to them. Israel will also look to reestablish its deterrent power in the eyes of both allies and enemies in the Middle East and beyond.

On 20th October, Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant outlined three principle phases of Israel’s campaign:

  1. “… a military campaign is taking place with [airstrikes] and later with a [ground] manoeuvre with the purpose of destroying operatives and damaging infrastructure in order to defeat and destroy Hamas.”
  2. Lower intensity fighting to “eliminate pockets of resistance.”
  3. “The third step will be the creation of a new security regime in the Gaza Strip, the removal of Israel’s responsibility for day-to-day life in the Gaza Strip, and the creation of a new security reality for the citizens of Israel and the residents of the [area surrounding Gaza].”

4.2  What has Israel done so far in response to Hamas’s attacks?

The IDF and IAF have conducted a campaign of air strikes targeted at Hamas personnel and infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. Over 4200 targets have been attacked.

Israel has also deployed other, non-kinetic, means in an effort to pressure Hamas to release hostages. These have included the temporary blocking of electricity, water, and aid from entering the Strip.

To minimise civilian casualties, Israel has urged Gazans, multiple times, to move south to a safe zone. In coordination with the US, Israel has cooperated with the opening of the Rafah Crossing to allow aid to flow to southern Gaza.

4.3  Will Israel now mount a ground operation in Gaza?

A ground incursion remains likely, since Israel’s war aims are likely unachievable through airstrikes and non-kinetic means alone. The government and IDF have been consistent in advising that the timing of a ground incursion will be based on operational considerations alone.

4.4 Aren’t Israel’s actions disproportionate?’

The notion of proportionality in warfare is widely misunderstood, and is usually used by the media and critics and delegitimisers of Israel to mean a simple equation of Palestinian vs. Israeli casualty numbers. Proportionality is more accurately understood as requiring of a party to a conflict that its actions be proportionate to the threat posed. In seeking to fully remove the capacity of Hamas to remain the political and military sovereign in the Gaza Strip, Israel is acting proportionately to a genocidal, eliminationist threat which was overwhelmingly demonstrated on October 7.

PART 5: INTERNATIONAL LAW

The wider media and social media narratives invariably feature references to international law, much of it uninformed and misleading.

5.1 What does international law say about Hamas’s attack?

The deliberate targeting of Israeli civilians by Hamas, and Hamas’s murder, torture, rape, and abduction of those civilians, constitute gross violations of international law and international criminal law. In the words of Israeli legal scholar Col. (res.) Adv. Pnina Sharvit Baruch, “these horrific acts constitute the most serious crimes in international law defined as war crimes and crimes against humanity, and amount to the crime of genocide.”

5.2 Does Israel have the right to respond militarily?

Israel not only has the right to respond to an unprovoked attack of such incredible barbarity; its government has a sovereign responsibility to act to prevent a Hamas which has proven itself capable of such a large-scale attack from doing so again.

As well as having a duty to defend its citizens, Israel, like all states, is duty bound to act to prevent genocide when the threat of one is credible. Hamas, a genocidal organisation which has proven its ability to murder on a scale previously thought unimaginable, falls into this category.

5.3 What does international law say Israel must do and must not do in its military response?

Under international law, Israel is obligated to respect the laws of armed conflict in its response to Hamas. This involves its actions being at all times faithful to three key pillars on international humanitarian law:

  • Distinction: Parties to a conflict must recognise and respect the distinction between civilian and military targets.
  • Necessity: The action taken must be necessary to a particular military objective.
  • Proportionality: Much misunderstood (see below), this requires that military actions be proportionate to the threat faced.

Israel must restrict its airstrikes and other operations to military targets. However, as Sharvit Baruch notes, “the definition of ‘military targets’ includes civilian objects that by their nature, purpose, location, or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose destruction offers a definite military advantage.”

Hamas embeds itself amongst civilians. This is very relevant to the case of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, since the terrorist organisation has deliberately embedded its personnel, materiel, and infrastructure amongst the densely populated civilian population and within ordinarily civilian locations. As such, “it is permissible to direct attacks toward these sites, as they have lost their civilian nature and have become legitimate military targets due to this use.”

Israel is committed to minimising civilian casualties. Civilian deaths are tragic, and Israel goes to great lengths to avoid them. Measures have included warning local residents by phone and by dropping leaflets that an airstrike is incoming, or engaging in “knocking on the roof”, whereby a non-explosive ordinance is first dropped on the targeted building, giving civilians inside time and warning to leave. These measures go above and beyond the minimum requirements imposed on a combatant in times of war. Israel has also repeatedly warned residents of northern Gaza to vacate the area and move south – a warning which Hamas has instructed civilians to ignore, preferring to use them as human shields – itself a war crime.

International law does not criminalise military actions causing civilian deaths. That civilian deaths do occur is a tragic but inevitable consequence of war. Nonetheless, international law does, provided “the collateral damage expected from the attack to civilians and civilian objects is [not] excessive in relation to the military advantage expected from the attack.” As Sharvit Baruch  argues, “in view of the enormous threat that Hamas currently poses to Israel, the denial of its military capabilities is expected to give Israel a great security advantage. Without achieving this goal, Hamas will succeed in de facto denying Israel the exercise of its sovereignty in the areas adjacent to the border with the Gaza Strip. In light of this significant military advantage, even if many civilians in Gaza are harmed during the attacks, this is not necessarily excessive incidental damage and therefore would not be disproportionate attacks that are illegal.”

PART 6: BRITAIN’S RESPONSE

The UK government, along with the near-unanimous bipartisan, cross-party consensus has affirmed that Israel has the right to defend itself and that Britain will support it as it does so.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said “I am unequivocal… there are not two sides to these events. There is no question of balance. I stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. The United Kingdom stands with Israel.”

Sir Keir Starmer, a lawyer as well as the Leader of the Opposition: “Israel has the right, indeed the duty, to defend herself and rescue these hostages.” (Our emphasis.) He also said: “I utterly condemn the ongoing attacks on Israel and her citizens. There is no justification for this act of terror which is being perpetrated by those who seek to undermine any chance for future peace in the region. Israel has a right to defend herself.”

Foreign Minister James Cleverly who was forced to take shelter as a siren went off during his visit subsequently wrote that he had “seen a glimpse of what millions experience every day. The threat of Hamas rockets lingers over every Israeli man, woman and child… The facts are clear. Hamas are terrorists. Israel has the right to defend itself. Hamas and Hamas alone are responsible and accountable for these appalling attacks. Terrorism must never be allowed to prevail.”

King Charles also offered his solidarity. In a lengthy phone call with Israel’s President Herzog, the king offered his condolences on the loss of the fallen Israelis. In a statement on Wednesday October 10, Buckingham Palace said King Charles was “appalled” by the attacks, and that “this is a situation His Majesty is extremely concerned about, and he has asked to be kept actively updated.”

In a separate statement, Prince William and Princess Kate said they were “profoundly distressed” by recent events and “utterly condemn” the “horrors” inflicted by Hamas on Israelis. The Prince and Princess of Wales noted that Israel will “exercise its right to self-defence” and that both Israeli and Palestinians will be engulfed in “grief, fear and anger” for some time.

The UK also deployed patrol and surveillance aircraft to Mideast to track arms transfers to terror groups, as well as two Royal Navy ships, the RFA Argus and RFA Lyme Bay, to the eastern Mediterranean. The British government says the move is to “track threats to regional stability such as the transfer of weapons to terrorist groups”.

October 20, 2023

US & UK show their continued support for Israel

Diplomatic support : Following his visit to Israel, US President Joe Biden made an address from the Oval Office last night. He called on Congress to approve an expanded aid package for Israel and Ukraine, including an additional $14 billion for Israel.

  • In his address Biden said, “the terrorist group Hamas unleashed pure, unadulterated evil in the world.”
  • He noted, “Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common: they both want to completely annihilate a neighbouring democracy… Hamas, its stated purpose for existing is the destruction of the State of Israel and the murder of Jewish people. Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people. Hamas uses Palestinian civilians as human shields, and innocent Palestinian families are suffering greatly because of them.”
  • Adding, “Iran is supporting Russia in Ukraine, and it’s supporting Hamas and other terrorist groups in the region. And we’ll continue to hold them accountable.”
  • Relating to the financial support, Biden called it, “a smart investment that’s going to pay dividends for American security for generations, help us keep American troops out of harm’s way, help us build a world that is safer, more peaceful, and more prosperous for our children and grandchildren. In Israel, we must make sure that they have what they need to protect their people today and always”.
  • “The security package I’m sending to Congress and asking Congress to do is an unprecedented commitment to Israel’s security that will sharpen Israel’s qualitative military edge, which we’ve committed to. We’re going to make sure Iron Dome continues to guard the skies over Israel. We’re going to make sure other hostile actors in the region know that Israel is stronger than ever and prevent this conflict from spreading.”
  • Prime Minister Sunak was in Israel yesterday to show his support. In his meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Sunak said, “I want to share the deep condolences of the British people and stress that we absolutely support Israel’s right to defend itself in line with international law, to go after Hamas, to take back hostages, deter further incursions and to strengthen your security for the long-term.”

Continued fighting: The IDF continues to strike hundreds of Hamas’s military targets. According to IDF announcements, targets included an underground tunnel, weapons storage, dozens of operational command centres, anti-tank missile launching posts, terror tunnel shafts.

  • In addition, “numerous” “Nukbha” forces, who led the attack on October7, have been killed, with “more than ten terrorists targeted in a precision aerial strike.”
  • The IDF also “struck the head of the military branch of the ‘Popular Resistance Committees’ terror organisation in Rafah, Rafat Harb Hussein Abu Hilal”.
  • In the north, twenty rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israel. Four were intercepted by anti-missile defence system. There were also more anti-tank missiles attacks.  IDF artillery responded toward the sources of the fire in Lebanon.
  • In the West Bank, the IDF and Shin Bet announced they conducted, “wide-scale counterterrorism activity overnight… over 80 wanted suspects were apprehended, including 63 Hamas terror operatives; the forces demolished the residence of a Hamas terrorist in the town of Qibya and apprehended a number of wanted suspects in the Nur Shams Camp.”
  • After a lull overnight, this morning rocket fire out of Gaza has resumed.

Context: Hezbollah is slowly ratcheting up its attacks on northern Israel. There has now been over 150 rockets fired from Lebanon and over 20 anti-tank missile strikes, a dozen incidents of small arms fire, as well two infiltrations. So far, these attacks have only targeted the border vicinity.

  • Israel has already evacuated the communities closest to the border, for fear of incursions by Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit.
  • So far six Israeli have died in the north. In 2006 the war with Hezbollah began after seven soldiers were killed and two were kidnapped. Due to the scale of the task in the south, so far Israel is returning fire at source and not looking to expand the range of targets.
  • Hamas is encouraging Iran to push Hezbollah to increase its attacks and expand its rockets range to target Tel Aviv and Haifa.
  • The underlying reason for the leaders of Israel’s closest allies, US, UK and Germany to all visit Israel this week was to deter Iran and Hezbollah from escalating any further.
  • Since October 7, the IDF has arrested 524 wanted suspects across the West Bank, over 330 of them are affiliated to Hamas. Over 50 weapons have also been confiscated.

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Gallant has approved the evacuation of the northern town of Kiryat Shemona, with over 20,000 inhabitants.

  • Like last Friday, Hamas is again inciting for a day of rage and attacks against Israel from across the Palestinian and wider Arab world.
  • The for Gaza from Egypt appears to be delayed. There is concern over the entry mechanism so as to avoid Hamas seizing the goods. There are also ongoing talks regarding the content of the aid.
  • The IDF continues to firm up plans ahead of an anticipated ground incursion into Gaza.

October 20, 2023

Richard Pater on BBC Newsnight

On 18th October, BICOM Director Richard Pater appeared on BBC Newsnight to discuss the latest developments in Israel’s response to Hamas’s attacks of October 7th.

October 19, 2023

Biden pledges continued support on Israel visit

Biden visit: The US president flew to Israel yesterday, in a further show of support for Israel and its right to respond to Hamas’s brutal attacks of 7th October.

  • Speaking alongside Prime Minister Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Biden spoke powerfully of the plight of the families of the at least 199 Israeli hostages held in Gaza, and of the redolence of the brutal Hamas attacks with the Holocaust.
  • “You’re not alone,” he told Israelis. “For as long as the United States stands, and we will stand forever, we will not let you ever be alone.”
  • Biden confirmed that he would be seeking Congressional approval for an unprecedentedly large package of US aid. “We are going to keep Iron Dome fully supplied so it can continue standing sentinel over Israeli skies, saving Israeli lives.”
  • He also reiterated his firm warning to other regional state and non-state actors not to exploit Israel’s grief and Gazan focus by escalating their own attacks on Israel. “My message [to them] remains the same as it was a week ago. Don’t. Don’t. Don’t,” he said.
  • Biden also said that with “the Palestinian people… suffering greatly as well,” the humanitarian situation in Gaza must be addressed. “The people of Gaza need food, water, medicine, shelter,” he said. “Today, I asked the Israeli cabinet… to agree to the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza, based on the understanding that there will be inspections, and that the aid should go to civilians, not to Hamas.”
  • Rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, which has continued consistently since October 7th, was restricted to border areas for the duration of Biden’s visit. Once the president left, however, central Israel was once more subject to a barrage of rockets. In the last two weeks over 7000 rockets have fired towards Israel.

Hospital blast: Biden backed the Israeli evidence that the blast had been caused not by an IDF bomb but by a misfired Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) rocket.

  • Biden said “based on the information we have seen to date, it appears as a result of an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in Gaza”.
  • Footage from a fixed Channel 12 camera overlooking the Gaza Strip showed no incoming missiles from the IDF at the time, but did show launches emanating from inside Gaza.
  • The IDF released aerial footage also showing rockets launched with the hospital under their flightpath.
  • The IDF revealed that a total of 450 rockets have misfired and landed inside Gaza.
  • Independent OSINT experts have also analysed the footage and confirmed that the damage is inconsistent with IDF ordinances.

In Gaza: The IDF has confirmed that it has killed Rafat Abu Hilal, head of the military wing of Gaza’s Popular Resistance Committees terror group, a faction separate to both Hamas and PIJ.

  • Ten members of the Hamas Nukbah force, which carried out the October 7th attacks, have also been killed in the last day, while the IDF also says it has destroyed various Hamas sites, including anti-tank missile launch sites, tunnel shafts, intelligence infrastructure, and command centres.

In the north: In the early hours of this morning, the IDF confirmed that it had struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including a military observation post from which a guided anti-tank missile was fired toward the northern town of Rosh Hanikra on Wednesday.Context: Biden is the first US president to visit Israel in wartime, and the first to attend an Israeli war cabinet.

  • Biden gave Israel full backing for its military operation. His Israeli interlocuters stressed that they will need time – weeks or even months – to defeat and dismantle Hamas’s terror network.
  • Biden’s strength in previously warning other regional actors – and in backing it with the despatching of two US aircraft carriers to the region – has been widely credited with contributing significantly to Hezbollah not seriously escalating attacks on Israel’s northern front.
  • There have been numerous attacks emanating from Lebanon, with Hezbollah firing at least sic anti-tank missiles, over 30 mortars and five cross border infiltrations. These have all focused on the immediate vicinity of the border area.  While Hamas leaders in Qatar have asked Iran to broaden the scope of their attacks and target Tel Aviv and Haifa, they are yet to do so.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu later confirmed that Israel had agreed to Biden’s request that aid be allowed into Gaza, and that Israel would not block the transfer of aid through Egypt’s Rafah Crossing.
  • In parallel to Biden’s visit, the US used its UN Security Council veto to block a Brazilian resolution calling for a ceasefire to allow aid to enter the Strip.
  • Israel and the US are also coordinating on the hostage issue and they called on the Red Cross to visit them, particularly due to concern that many of them may have suffered injuries when they were captured.
  • Biden had been due to continue on to Amman from Israel, for further discussions with Sisi, Jordan’s King Abdullah, and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. The Arab leaders cancelled the meeting, however, in the wake of the Tuesday’s deadly blast at al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza City.
  • The cancellation is perceived as a missed opportunity to gain Arab backing for the plans for Gaza the day after the military operation.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrived in Israel this morning for a two-day visit.

  • He will meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Herzog, and with representatives of the hostages’ families.
  • Touching down, he told Israelis, “I want you to know that the UK and I stand with you,” and that the UK condemned Hamas’s “unspeakable, horrific acts of terrorism.”
  • President Biden reached an understanding with President Sisi to allow 20 aid trucks in through the Rafah crossing.
  • They are expected to enter the Gaza Strip tomorrow through the Rafah crossing, with more expected to follow. Biden made clear that if Hamas commandeers the aid or prevented its entry, it would stop.

October 18, 2023

Palestinian rocket misfire hits hospital

What happened: The IDF has presented evidence that a rocket fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad misfired and hit a hospital inside Gaza.

  • Palestinian sources said hundreds of people died in the explosion.
  • In the immediate aftermath, leaders across the Arab word accused Israel of hitting the hospital.
  • Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas declared three days of national mourning to mark what he described as “genocide.”
  • As Israel was blamed for the strike, the Israeli embassy in Jordan was attacked, as well as the US embassy in Lebanon. Palestinians attacked Joseph’s Tomb in Nablus.
  • According to the IDF, “an analysis of IDF operational systems indicates that a barrage of rockets was fired by terrorists in Gaza, passing in close proximity to the Al Ahli hospital in Gaza at the time it was hit. Intelligence from multiple sources we have in our hands indicates that Islamic Jihad is responsible for the failed rocket launch which hit the hospital in Gaza.”
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu, said, “the entire world should know: it was barbaric terrorists in Gaza that attacked the hospital in Gaza, and not the IDF. Those who brutally murdered our children also murder their own children.”
  • Overall, the IDF has continued to strike dozens of military targets in the Gaza Strip including, “operational command centres, a number of terrorist staging grounds, anti-tank missile and rocket launchers, military infrastructure, as well as military infrastructure located on top of Hamas terror tunnels.”
  • Palestinian sources said Ayman Nofal, the head Hamas military wing in Central Gaza was killed yesterday.
  • The IDF also targeted and killed another two senior Hamas operatives: Muhammad Awdallah – commander of the anti-tank missile system in Gaza City – and Akram Hijazi, from the Hamas naval forces. According to the IDF he was also an arms dealer and responsible for directing terror attacks on Israel.
  • Hezbollah has continued low intensity attacks on Israel’s northern border. An anti-tank missile was fired near Moshav Shetula last night, four IDF soldiers were injured. IDF artillery returned fire to the source.

Context: In general and in all previous rounds of rocket fire emanating from Gaza, over 10 per cent of the rockets misfired and fell inside Gaza, killing innocent Palestinians.

  • Ahead of President Biden’s visit, there is speculation that the US is orchestrating a creative solution for Gaza in coordination with Israel and their Arab allies.
  • The explosion at the hospital appears to have knocked this off the agenda, with Biden’s summit with the Arab leaders now cancelled.
  • Israel is focused on military targets and goes to unprecedented lengths to avoid civilian casualties.
  • Nofal is the highest-ranking Hamas official killed since the beginning of the war. Israel had previously targeted him for assassination in 2014.
  • Nofal was considered one of Israel’s top five targets, the others include:
    • Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas inside Gaza.
    • Muhammad Deif , the head of the military branch who has survived several assassination attempts.
    • Tawfik Abu Naim, the head of the security apparatus.
    • Vahi Moshtaha, Sinwar’s senior adviser.
  • Within the Hamas’s military wing, there are three more senior commanders who are being targeted following Nofal:
    • Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy and the coordinator between the military and political wings.
    • Ahmed Ahandor, commander of the northern Gaza Strip.
    • Muhammad Sinwar (Yahia’s brother), commander of the southern Gaza Strip and one of Gilad Shalit’s kidnappers.
  • Two additional targets for elimination are the organisation’s brigade commanders:
    • Muhammad Shabana, commander of the Rafah Brigade.
    • Eaz al-Din Haddad, commander of the Gaza City Brigade.
  • The pair replaced veteran division commanders who were eliminated in previous rounds in recent years.
  • The IDF continues to encourage Gazan civilians to move to a safe zone in southern Gaza. Israel, alongside international partners, is exploring efforts to create a corridor.
  • There have so far been six anti-tank missiles attacks from Lebanon over the last few days, in addition to two rockets that were fired, but only one crossed into Israel.

Looking ahead: President Biden arrives in Israel this morning, for an unprecedented visit with the country at war.

  • He is only expected to stay a few hours and will meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog.
  • He is also expected to attend the war cabinet meeting. (For more comments on Biden’s visit see Israeli media summary below).
  • Speculation continues if and when the IDF will launch a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip.
  • It is also anticipated that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will visit Israel in the days ahead.

October 17, 2023

Hamas airs hostage video as rockets continue to strike Israel

Hostages in Gaza: Hamas last night released the first footage of an Israeli hostage being held in the Gaza Strip.

  • 21-year-old Mia Schem, an Israeli-French citizen and resident of Shoham, was kidnapped during Hamas’s deadly attack on the Nova music festival at Kibbutz Re’im in which 260 were murdered. She appeared on camera as her arm, injured in the attack, was being treated.
  • “I’m being cared for,” she said. “I’m only asking to be returned home as soon as possible, to my family, to my parents, to my siblings. Please get me out of here as soon as possible.”
  • Mia’s mother, Keren Schem, told reporters: “I know my baby is alive, I was in uncertainty until now… you can see that she is in pain, scared, but she seems to be in a stable condition. I almost fainted, I fell on the floor, I couldn’t believe that I was seeing her.”
  • Keren appealed to world leaders to secure the safe return of all hostages, saying “here are children, boys and girls, who went out to celebrate life and be at a party. This is not the place they should be.”
  • Israeli officials yesterday confirmed that relatives of 199 people had been told that their loved ones were being held in the Strip.
  • Hamas military spokesman Abu Obeida, meanwhile, said that “security and practical difficulties” precluded a full count of the number of hostages in terrorist hands, but that the number was between 200 and 250: 200 held by Hamas and the rest by other “resistance factions and in other places”.
  • He stated that hostages had been divided into three groups: foreigners or those with dual citizenship; women, the elderly, and children; and soldiers. Foreign passport holders, he added, were “our guests”, and would be released “as soon as conditions permit.”
  • In separate remarks, senior Hamas political official Khaled Mashal echoed Abu Obeida, and confirmed that Hamas was demanding the release of 6,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel in return for the release of the hostages.
  • Mashal thanked Hezbollah for “taking steps” against Israel but demanded that they be increased.
  • Mashal also reiterated Hamas’s policy of refusing to allow Gazans any means of escaping the Strip as Israel continues its campaign there. He warned that any exodus would harm Egyptian security, and cautioned Jordan that such would set a precedent for West Bank Palestinians to flee to their nearest Arab state.

Incoming rockets: Rockets have continued to be fired into Israel from the Gaza Strip, overall the total is now over 6,900 rockets. Over 1,000 have been intercepted by the Iron Dome, whilst over 300 have caused direct hits on Israel’s home front.

  • Last night there was another heavy barrage fired towards Tel Aviv and the centre of the country, no injuries were reported.
  • There were also rockets directed towards Jerusalem, with one landing in the area of Bethlehem.
  • The rockets towards Jerusalem coincided with the opening of the winter session of the Knesset, whilst in Tel Aviv, US Secretary of State Blinken was meeting Israeli leaders at IDF HQ.

Inside Gaza: The IDF has continued to bomb Hamas military targets. This morning the IDF confirmed, “IDF fighter jets struck Hamas headquarters and killed a Hamas military operative.”

  • As well as airstrikes, the IDF confirmed that the navy has “used precision munitions striking targets of Hamas, including operational headquarters in the centre of Gaza City and munition warehouses.”
  • In addition, “over the last few hours, dozens of military command centres and mortar shell posts were destroyed. In addition, the operational command centre of Ali Qadi, one of the commanders of the Hamas ‘Nukhba’ commando forces who was killed several days ago, was struck.”
  • The IDF also confirmed, “the IDF and Shin Bet killed Osama Mazini, the head of the Shura Council of Hamas terrorist organisation in the Gaza Strip. Mazini was responsible for Hamas prisoners and directed terrorist activities against Israel.”
  • Israel is continuing to encourage Gazan civilians to move south and has resumed water supply to southern Gaza.

In the north: This morning, the IDF announced that it has killed four terrorists who tried to cross the border from Lebanon and plant an explosive device, close to the northern kibbutz Hanita.

  • The four were killed by drone strike as they approached the border fence. No Israelis were injured.
  • This morning there was an anti-tank missile attack on a vehicle in Metula, leaving two people injured. The IDF has now declared Metula a closed military zone.
  • After yesterday’s announcement of an evacuation of Israeli civilians living in 28 communities within 2 kilometres of the northern border, Hezbollah opened fire with light arms at several Israeli border military posts. A missile was also launched at an Israeli tank.
  • No soldiers were hurt, and the IDF responded with artillery attacks directed at the sources of Hezbollah fire.
  • 1 Israeli civilian, 2 Lebanese civilians, 1 journalist, 5 Israeli soldiers, 4 Hezbollah terrorists, and 5 Palestinian terrorists have died in northern border clashes over the last week.
  • Opening the Knesset’s wartime session yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Hezbollah and its Iranian patron against escalating. “Don’t try us,” he said, “you will be severely harmed.”
  • IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said yesterday that “we have increased our forces on the northern border and will respond aggressively to any activity against us. If Hezbollah dares to test us,” he continued, “the reaction will be deadly. The United States is giving us full backing.”

Diplomatic context: Israel continues to receive strong support from democratic allies, most significantly from the US and UK.

  • In a unusual example of that support, Secretary of State Blinken attended a meeting of the Israeli war cabinet yesterday.
  • He was privy to the latest plans as Israel prepares for a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip to further target Hamas’s military infrastructure.
  • This is the first time a senior US official has joined these consultations since the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago, when Henry Kissinger attended Golda Meir’s security cabinet.
    • This is further testament to the two countries’ close coordination.
    • It complements the US decision to send US aircraft carriers to the region and resupply Israel with advanced munitions.
    • It is also part of a US effort to deter Iran and Hezbollah from opening up another front.
    • US influence will also be encouraging Israel to allow in into Gaza.
  • Last night US Centcom commander Michael Kurilla arrived in Israel to meet with IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi. On arrival he confirmed, “I’m here to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and am particularly focused on avoiding other parties expanding the conflict.”
  • The close US-Israel cooperation is expected to be solidified further with a short visit by President Biden to Israel in the next day or two.
  • Biden is expected to use the opportunity of a regional visit to also meet Arab allies.
  • In a speech to Parliament yesterday, UK Prime Minister Sunak reaffirmed British commitment to Israel. He “called for the immediate release of all hostages. And I say to them: we stand with you; we stand with Israel.”
  • Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with Russian President Putin. According to Netanyahu’s office, “the Prime Minister made it clear that Israel had been attacked by brutal and abhorrent murderers, had gone to war determined and united, and would not stop until it had destroyed Hamas’s military and governing capabilities.”
  • Netanyahu and Putin were once considered close, particularly having reached understanding over Israeli interests in , but have more recently drifted apart. Israel’s support for Ukraine and Russia’s subsequent reliance on Iranian weapons have frayed relations.
  • Yesterday at the UN Security Council, a Russian ceasefire proposal was rejected. Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan said Israel would not stop until it defeats and destroys the Nazi Hamas, whose goal is to destroy the State of Israel.

October 16, 2023

Airstrikes and preparations for ground invasion continue

In the south: Intensive Israeli air strikes on Hamas targets in the Strip continued yesterday. 250 targets were hit during the day, and a further 50 sites overnight. With a particular focus on Gaza City, targets included Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad military headquarters, observation posts, and several rocket launching sites.

  • The IDF confirmed that it had killed Muataz Eid, a senior Hamas commander and the head of national security for the terror group’s southern district. In addition, the IDF have released a list of 5 other senior Hamas officials killed.
  • Ahead of an anticipated ground invasion, the IAF has taken IDF ground commanders on reconnaissance sorties over the Strip in recent days, allowing for up-to-date birds eye views of the terrain.
  • Contradictory reports suggest that Israel has agreed to a temporary ceasefire this morning, to allow for the re-opening of the Rafah Crossing to allow foreign passport holders to exit Gaza and aid to enter. However, this has been denied by the prime minister’s office.
  • As Israel announced that at least 120 families have been informed that their relatives are being held hostage by Hamas in Gaza, Prime Minister Netanyahu met last night with representatives of the families. This morning an IDF spokesperson updated the number of hostages thought taken to 199.
  • After a nine-hour pause, rocket sirens sounded once more in Israel’s south this morning. Overall, over 6,600 rockets have been fired into Israel.

In the north: This morning, the IDF announced the evacuation of civilians from 28 communities up to 2 kilometres from the Lebanese border, following repeated rocket and missile attacks launched on Israel’s north from southern Lebanon. Five attempts at infiltration have also been made.

  • The first Israeli civilian casualty on the norther border was a 40-year-old man killed yesterday in an anti-tank fire directed at the residential neighbourhood in Shtula.
  • An IDF soldier was also killed yesterday by an anti-tank missile fired near the border moshav of Zarit.
  • 6 Israelis killed have now been killed on Israel’s northern border in the last week.

Biden interview: In an interview with CBS, President Biden affirmed his belief that Israel can accomplish its war aims alone, without the need for US troops. “Israel has one of the finest fighting forces,” he said. “I guarantee we’re going to provide them everything they need.”

  • Israel, he said, had “to go after Hamas… Hamas is a bunch of cowards. They’re hiding behind the civilians.” Hamas also “engaged in barbarism that is as consequential as the Holocaust.”
  • Biden confirmed that the US remains in talks with Egypt about establishing a humanitarian corridor “to get these children and women out” of Gaza.
  • “I’m confident that there’s going to be an ability for the innocents in Gaza to be able to have access to medicine and food and water,” he said.
  • Yesterday, Israel announced that water had been restored to southern parts of the Strip, following conversations between Biden and Netanyahu.
  • President Biden warned against an Israeli re-occupation of Gaza. He also acknowledged that steps towards a two state solution could not be pursued whilst Hamas remains, but that a “path to a Palestinian state” must be a future aim. Jerusalem, he said, “understands that significant portions of the Palestinian people do not share the views of Hamas and Hezbollah.”
  • Asked whether the US could maintain simultaneous support for both Israeli and Ukrainian war efforts, Biden said: “we’re the United States of America for God’s sake, the most powerful nation… We can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defence.”

Context: So far, the campaign has focused on an intense bombing campaign again Hamas military infrastructure. However, with many Hamas military assets understood to buried in tunnels underground, at some point a ground incursion will also be necessary.

  • The army is preparing for a ground incursion. It has been gathering intelligence on Hamas’s fortifications and preparing operational battle plans.
  • In an effort to avoid civilian casualties inside Gaza, Israel continues to encourage northern Gazans to move south.
  • Israel’s war cabinet that includes the prime minister, defence minister, Ministers Gantz, Eisenkot and Dermer have clarified the war’s objectives:
    • Toppling the Hamas regime and destroying its military capabilities.
    • Removing the threat of terrorism from the Gaza Strip.
    • Maximum effort to return the hostages.
    • Defending the state’s borders and its citizens.
  • While Israel is currently focused on the Gaza Strip, they are acutely aware of the more significant threat posed by Hezbollah in the north.
  • Hezbollah’s attack yesterday, the first time against civilian targets in northern Israel further raises the tension.
  • Hezbollah is also threating to intensify their attacks if there is a ground incursion into Gaza.
  • There is a live policy debate over whether to continue to respond to Hezbollah aggression as isolated incidents (returning fire to its source) and avoid a wider confrontation. Alternatively, with IDF preparedness at its height, whether this is the right time to target their elite Radwan forces that are gathered close to the border.
  • During his visit to Israel over the weekend, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin is thought to have warned Israeli officials against an escalation against Hezbollah at this time. In return, Austin pledged to send US aircraft and pilots to actively engage in defence of Israel were Hezbollah to strike first.
  • Both the US secretaries of state and defence visited Israel last week and Netanyahu and President Biden have spoken five times since the attack last Saturday.
  • Residents of the north are fearful of a similar type of invasion as occurred on the Gaza Strip periphery, though Hezbollah is considered an even more formidable military power.
  • Israel is also concerned that Iran has increased efforts to deliver advanced weapons to Hezbollah, hence the Syrian reports of attacks against their airports and targeting of Iranian weapon convoys.
  • The Israeli military doctrine prepares for a multi front war, but focusing on one front is clearly a more manageable task.

Looking ahead: The aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip is expected to continue. With an anticipated land incursion, the IDF may still want to display an element of surprise regarding the timing and nature of the attack.

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has invited US President Biden to visit Israel in the next few days as a show of solidarity.
  • Qatar is said to remain engaged in negotiations with Hamas aimed at the release of hostages, with proposals being made to release foreign nationals and dual nationals as a priority.

Newsletter sign-up

Please enter your information below to subscribe to our weekly newsletter and stay updated and informed.

Donate to BICOM

At BICOM, we rely on the generosity of people like you to keep our website and services running. Your donation, no matter the size, makes a real difference. Please consider supporting us today.