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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated October 20, 2023

US & UK show their continued support for Israel

Diplomatic support : Following his visit to Israel, US President Joe Biden made an address from the Oval Office last night. He called on Congress to approve an expanded aid package for Israel and Ukraine, including an additional $14 billion for Israel.

  • In his address Biden said, “the terrorist group Hamas unleashed pure, unadulterated evil in the world.”
  • He noted, “Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common: they both want to completely annihilate a neighbouring democracy… Hamas, its stated purpose for existing is the destruction of the State of Israel and the murder of Jewish people. Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people. Hamas uses Palestinian civilians as human shields, and innocent Palestinian families are suffering greatly because of them.”
  • Adding, “Iran is supporting Russia in Ukraine, and it’s supporting Hamas and other terrorist groups in the region. And we’ll continue to hold them accountable.”
  • Relating to the financial support, Biden called it, “a smart investment that’s going to pay dividends for American security for generations, help us keep American troops out of harm’s way, help us build a world that is safer, more peaceful, and more prosperous for our children and grandchildren. In Israel, we must make sure that they have what they need to protect their people today and always”.
  • “The security package I’m sending to Congress and asking Congress to do is an unprecedented commitment to Israel’s security that will sharpen Israel’s qualitative military edge, which we’ve committed to. We’re going to make sure Iron Dome continues to guard the skies over Israel. We’re going to make sure other hostile actors in the region know that Israel is stronger than ever and prevent this conflict from spreading.”
  • Prime Minister Sunak was in Israel yesterday to show his support. In his meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Sunak said, “I want to share the deep condolences of the British people and stress that we absolutely support Israel’s right to defend itself in line with international law, to go after Hamas, to take back hostages, deter further incursions and to strengthen your security for the long-term.”

Continued fighting: The IDF continues to strike hundreds of Hamas’s military targets. According to IDF announcements, targets included an underground tunnel, weapons storage, dozens of operational command centres, anti-tank missile launching posts, terror tunnel shafts.

  • In addition, “numerous” “Nukbha” forces, who led the attack on October7, have been killed, with “more than ten terrorists targeted in a precision aerial strike.”
  • The IDF also “struck the head of the military branch of the ‘Popular Resistance Committees’ terror organisation in Rafah, Rafat Harb Hussein Abu Hilal”.
  • In the north, twenty rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israel. Four were intercepted by anti-missile defence system. There were also more anti-tank missiles attacks.  IDF artillery responded toward the sources of the fire in Lebanon.
  • In the West Bank, the IDF and Shin Bet announced they conducted, “wide-scale counterterrorism activity overnight… over 80 wanted suspects were apprehended, including 63 Hamas terror operatives; the forces demolished the residence of a Hamas terrorist in the town of Qibya and apprehended a number of wanted suspects in the Nur Shams Camp.”
  • After a lull overnight, this morning rocket fire out of Gaza has resumed.

Context: Hezbollah is slowly ratcheting up its attacks on northern Israel. There has now been over 150 rockets fired from Lebanon and over 20 anti-tank missile strikes, a dozen incidents of small arms fire, as well two infiltrations. So far, these attacks have only targeted the border vicinity.

  • Israel has already evacuated the communities closest to the border, for fear of incursions by Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit.
  • So far six Israeli have died in the north. In 2006 the war with Hezbollah began after seven soldiers were killed and two were kidnapped. Due to the scale of the task in the south, so far Israel is returning fire at source and not looking to expand the range of targets.
  • Hamas is encouraging Iran to push Hezbollah to increase its attacks and expand its rockets range to target Tel Aviv and Haifa.
  • The underlying reason for the leaders of Israel’s closest allies, US, UK and Germany to all visit Israel this week was to deter Iran and Hezbollah from escalating any further.
  • Since October 7, the IDF has arrested 524 wanted suspects across the West Bank, over 330 of them are affiliated to Hamas. Over 50 weapons have also been confiscated.

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Gallant has approved the evacuation of the northern town of Kiryat Shemona, with over 20,000 inhabitants.

  • Like last Friday, Hamas is again inciting for a day of rage and attacks against Israel from across the Palestinian and wider Arab world.
  • The for Gaza from Egypt appears to be delayed. There is concern over the entry mechanism so as to avoid Hamas seizing the goods. There are also ongoing talks regarding the content of the aid.
  • The IDF continues to firm up plans ahead of an anticipated ground incursion into Gaza.

October 20, 2023

Richard Pater on BBC Newsnight

On 18th October, BICOM Director Richard Pater appeared on BBC Newsnight to discuss the latest developments in Israel’s response to Hamas’s attacks of October 7th.

October 19, 2023

Biden pledges continued support on Israel visit

Biden visit: The US president flew to Israel yesterday, in a further show of support for Israel and its right to respond to Hamas’s brutal attacks of 7th October.

  • Speaking alongside Prime Minister Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Biden spoke powerfully of the plight of the families of the at least 199 Israeli hostages held in Gaza, and of the redolence of the brutal Hamas attacks with the Holocaust.
  • “You’re not alone,” he told Israelis. “For as long as the United States stands, and we will stand forever, we will not let you ever be alone.”
  • Biden confirmed that he would be seeking Congressional approval for an unprecedentedly large package of US aid. “We are going to keep Iron Dome fully supplied so it can continue standing sentinel over Israeli skies, saving Israeli lives.”
  • He also reiterated his firm warning to other regional state and non-state actors not to exploit Israel’s grief and Gazan focus by escalating their own attacks on Israel. “My message [to them] remains the same as it was a week ago. Don’t. Don’t. Don’t,” he said.
  • Biden also said that with “the Palestinian people… suffering greatly as well,” the humanitarian situation in Gaza must be addressed. “The people of Gaza need food, water, medicine, shelter,” he said. “Today, I asked the Israeli cabinet… to agree to the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza, based on the understanding that there will be inspections, and that the aid should go to civilians, not to Hamas.”
  • Rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, which has continued consistently since October 7th, was restricted to border areas for the duration of Biden’s visit. Once the president left, however, central Israel was once more subject to a barrage of rockets. In the last two weeks over 7000 rockets have fired towards Israel.

Hospital blast: Biden backed the Israeli evidence that the blast had been caused not by an IDF bomb but by a misfired Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) rocket.

  • Biden said “based on the information we have seen to date, it appears as a result of an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in Gaza”.
  • Footage from a fixed Channel 12 camera overlooking the Gaza Strip showed no incoming missiles from the IDF at the time, but did show launches emanating from inside Gaza.
  • The IDF released aerial footage also showing rockets launched with the hospital under their flightpath.
  • The IDF revealed that a total of 450 rockets have misfired and landed inside Gaza.
  • Independent OSINT experts have also analysed the footage and confirmed that the damage is inconsistent with IDF ordinances.

In Gaza: The IDF has confirmed that it has killed Rafat Abu Hilal, head of the military wing of Gaza’s Popular Resistance Committees terror group, a faction separate to both Hamas and PIJ.

  • Ten members of the Hamas Nukbah force, which carried out the October 7th attacks, have also been killed in the last day, while the IDF also says it has destroyed various Hamas sites, including anti-tank missile launch sites, tunnel shafts, intelligence infrastructure, and command centres.

In the north: In the early hours of this morning, the IDF confirmed that it had struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including a military observation post from which a guided anti-tank missile was fired toward the northern town of Rosh Hanikra on Wednesday.Context: Biden is the first US president to visit Israel in wartime, and the first to attend an Israeli war cabinet.

  • Biden gave Israel full backing for its military operation. His Israeli interlocuters stressed that they will need time – weeks or even months – to defeat and dismantle Hamas’s terror network.
  • Biden’s strength in previously warning other regional actors – and in backing it with the despatching of two US aircraft carriers to the region – has been widely credited with contributing significantly to Hezbollah not seriously escalating attacks on Israel’s northern front.
  • There have been numerous attacks emanating from Lebanon, with Hezbollah firing at least sic anti-tank missiles, over 30 mortars and five cross border infiltrations. These have all focused on the immediate vicinity of the border area.  While Hamas leaders in Qatar have asked Iran to broaden the scope of their attacks and target Tel Aviv and Haifa, they are yet to do so.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu later confirmed that Israel had agreed to Biden’s request that aid be allowed into Gaza, and that Israel would not block the transfer of aid through Egypt’s Rafah Crossing.
  • In parallel to Biden’s visit, the US used its UN Security Council veto to block a Brazilian resolution calling for a ceasefire to allow aid to enter the Strip.
  • Israel and the US are also coordinating on the hostage issue and they called on the Red Cross to visit them, particularly due to concern that many of them may have suffered injuries when they were captured.
  • Biden had been due to continue on to Amman from Israel, for further discussions with Sisi, Jordan’s King Abdullah, and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. The Arab leaders cancelled the meeting, however, in the wake of the Tuesday’s deadly blast at al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza City.
  • The cancellation is perceived as a missed opportunity to gain Arab backing for the plans for Gaza the day after the military operation.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrived in Israel this morning for a two-day visit.

  • He will meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Herzog, and with representatives of the hostages’ families.
  • Touching down, he told Israelis, “I want you to know that the UK and I stand with you,” and that the UK condemned Hamas’s “unspeakable, horrific acts of terrorism.”
  • President Biden reached an understanding with President Sisi to allow 20 aid trucks in through the Rafah crossing.
  • They are expected to enter the Gaza Strip tomorrow through the Rafah crossing, with more expected to follow. Biden made clear that if Hamas commandeers the aid or prevented its entry, it would stop.

October 18, 2023

Palestinian rocket misfire hits hospital

What happened: The IDF has presented evidence that a rocket fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad misfired and hit a hospital inside Gaza.

  • Palestinian sources said hundreds of people died in the explosion.
  • In the immediate aftermath, leaders across the Arab word accused Israel of hitting the hospital.
  • Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas declared three days of national mourning to mark what he described as “genocide.”
  • As Israel was blamed for the strike, the Israeli embassy in Jordan was attacked, as well as the US embassy in Lebanon. Palestinians attacked Joseph’s Tomb in Nablus.
  • According to the IDF, “an analysis of IDF operational systems indicates that a barrage of rockets was fired by terrorists in Gaza, passing in close proximity to the Al Ahli hospital in Gaza at the time it was hit. Intelligence from multiple sources we have in our hands indicates that Islamic Jihad is responsible for the failed rocket launch which hit the hospital in Gaza.”
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu, said, “the entire world should know: it was barbaric terrorists in Gaza that attacked the hospital in Gaza, and not the IDF. Those who brutally murdered our children also murder their own children.”
  • Overall, the IDF has continued to strike dozens of military targets in the Gaza Strip including, “operational command centres, a number of terrorist staging grounds, anti-tank missile and rocket launchers, military infrastructure, as well as military infrastructure located on top of Hamas terror tunnels.”
  • Palestinian sources said Ayman Nofal, the head Hamas military wing in Central Gaza was killed yesterday.
  • The IDF also targeted and killed another two senior Hamas operatives: Muhammad Awdallah – commander of the anti-tank missile system in Gaza City – and Akram Hijazi, from the Hamas naval forces. According to the IDF he was also an arms dealer and responsible for directing terror attacks on Israel.
  • Hezbollah has continued low intensity attacks on Israel’s northern border. An anti-tank missile was fired near Moshav Shetula last night, four IDF soldiers were injured. IDF artillery returned fire to the source.

Context: In general and in all previous rounds of rocket fire emanating from Gaza, over 10 per cent of the rockets misfired and fell inside Gaza, killing innocent Palestinians.

  • Ahead of President Biden’s visit, there is speculation that the US is orchestrating a creative solution for Gaza in coordination with Israel and their Arab allies.
  • The explosion at the hospital appears to have knocked this off the agenda, with Biden’s summit with the Arab leaders now cancelled.
  • Israel is focused on military targets and goes to unprecedented lengths to avoid civilian casualties.
  • Nofal is the highest-ranking Hamas official killed since the beginning of the war. Israel had previously targeted him for assassination in 2014.
  • Nofal was considered one of Israel’s top five targets, the others include:
    • Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas inside Gaza.
    • Muhammad Deif , the head of the military branch who has survived several assassination attempts.
    • Tawfik Abu Naim, the head of the security apparatus.
    • Vahi Moshtaha, Sinwar’s senior adviser.
  • Within the Hamas’s military wing, there are three more senior commanders who are being targeted following Nofal:
    • Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy and the coordinator between the military and political wings.
    • Ahmed Ahandor, commander of the northern Gaza Strip.
    • Muhammad Sinwar (Yahia’s brother), commander of the southern Gaza Strip and one of Gilad Shalit’s kidnappers.
  • Two additional targets for elimination are the organisation’s brigade commanders:
    • Muhammad Shabana, commander of the Rafah Brigade.
    • Eaz al-Din Haddad, commander of the Gaza City Brigade.
  • The pair replaced veteran division commanders who were eliminated in previous rounds in recent years.
  • The IDF continues to encourage Gazan civilians to move to a safe zone in southern Gaza. Israel, alongside international partners, is exploring efforts to create a corridor.
  • There have so far been six anti-tank missiles attacks from Lebanon over the last few days, in addition to two rockets that were fired, but only one crossed into Israel.

Looking ahead: President Biden arrives in Israel this morning, for an unprecedented visit with the country at war.

  • He is only expected to stay a few hours and will meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog.
  • He is also expected to attend the war cabinet meeting. (For more comments on Biden’s visit see Israeli media summary below).
  • Speculation continues if and when the IDF will launch a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip.
  • It is also anticipated that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will visit Israel in the days ahead.

October 17, 2023

Hamas airs hostage video as rockets continue to strike Israel

Hostages in Gaza: Hamas last night released the first footage of an Israeli hostage being held in the Gaza Strip.

  • 21-year-old Mia Schem, an Israeli-French citizen and resident of Shoham, was kidnapped during Hamas’s deadly attack on the Nova music festival at Kibbutz Re’im in which 260 were murdered. She appeared on camera as her arm, injured in the attack, was being treated.
  • “I’m being cared for,” she said. “I’m only asking to be returned home as soon as possible, to my family, to my parents, to my siblings. Please get me out of here as soon as possible.”
  • Mia’s mother, Keren Schem, told reporters: “I know my baby is alive, I was in uncertainty until now… you can see that she is in pain, scared, but she seems to be in a stable condition. I almost fainted, I fell on the floor, I couldn’t believe that I was seeing her.”
  • Keren appealed to world leaders to secure the safe return of all hostages, saying “here are children, boys and girls, who went out to celebrate life and be at a party. This is not the place they should be.”
  • Israeli officials yesterday confirmed that relatives of 199 people had been told that their loved ones were being held in the Strip.
  • Hamas military spokesman Abu Obeida, meanwhile, said that “security and practical difficulties” precluded a full count of the number of hostages in terrorist hands, but that the number was between 200 and 250: 200 held by Hamas and the rest by other “resistance factions and in other places”.
  • He stated that hostages had been divided into three groups: foreigners or those with dual citizenship; women, the elderly, and children; and soldiers. Foreign passport holders, he added, were “our guests”, and would be released “as soon as conditions permit.”
  • In separate remarks, senior Hamas political official Khaled Mashal echoed Abu Obeida, and confirmed that Hamas was demanding the release of 6,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel in return for the release of the hostages.
  • Mashal thanked Hezbollah for “taking steps” against Israel but demanded that they be increased.
  • Mashal also reiterated Hamas’s policy of refusing to allow Gazans any means of escaping the Strip as Israel continues its campaign there. He warned that any exodus would harm Egyptian security, and cautioned Jordan that such would set a precedent for West Bank Palestinians to flee to their nearest Arab state.

Incoming rockets: Rockets have continued to be fired into Israel from the Gaza Strip, overall the total is now over 6,900 rockets. Over 1,000 have been intercepted by the Iron Dome, whilst over 300 have caused direct hits on Israel’s home front.

  • Last night there was another heavy barrage fired towards Tel Aviv and the centre of the country, no injuries were reported.
  • There were also rockets directed towards Jerusalem, with one landing in the area of Bethlehem.
  • The rockets towards Jerusalem coincided with the opening of the winter session of the Knesset, whilst in Tel Aviv, US Secretary of State Blinken was meeting Israeli leaders at IDF HQ.

Inside Gaza: The IDF has continued to bomb Hamas military targets. This morning the IDF confirmed, “IDF fighter jets struck Hamas headquarters and killed a Hamas military operative.”

  • As well as airstrikes, the IDF confirmed that the navy has “used precision munitions striking targets of Hamas, including operational headquarters in the centre of Gaza City and munition warehouses.”
  • In addition, “over the last few hours, dozens of military command centres and mortar shell posts were destroyed. In addition, the operational command centre of Ali Qadi, one of the commanders of the Hamas ‘Nukhba’ commando forces who was killed several days ago, was struck.”
  • The IDF also confirmed, “the IDF and Shin Bet killed Osama Mazini, the head of the Shura Council of Hamas terrorist organisation in the Gaza Strip. Mazini was responsible for Hamas prisoners and directed terrorist activities against Israel.”
  • Israel is continuing to encourage Gazan civilians to move south and has resumed water supply to southern Gaza.

In the north: This morning, the IDF announced that it has killed four terrorists who tried to cross the border from Lebanon and plant an explosive device, close to the northern kibbutz Hanita.

  • The four were killed by drone strike as they approached the border fence. No Israelis were injured.
  • This morning there was an anti-tank missile attack on a vehicle in Metula, leaving two people injured. The IDF has now declared Metula a closed military zone.
  • After yesterday’s announcement of an evacuation of Israeli civilians living in 28 communities within 2 kilometres of the northern border, Hezbollah opened fire with light arms at several Israeli border military posts. A missile was also launched at an Israeli tank.
  • No soldiers were hurt, and the IDF responded with artillery attacks directed at the sources of Hezbollah fire.
  • 1 Israeli civilian, 2 Lebanese civilians, 1 journalist, 5 Israeli soldiers, 4 Hezbollah terrorists, and 5 Palestinian terrorists have died in northern border clashes over the last week.
  • Opening the Knesset’s wartime session yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Hezbollah and its Iranian patron against escalating. “Don’t try us,” he said, “you will be severely harmed.”
  • IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said yesterday that “we have increased our forces on the northern border and will respond aggressively to any activity against us. If Hezbollah dares to test us,” he continued, “the reaction will be deadly. The United States is giving us full backing.”

Diplomatic context: Israel continues to receive strong support from democratic allies, most significantly from the US and UK.

  • In a unusual example of that support, Secretary of State Blinken attended a meeting of the Israeli war cabinet yesterday.
  • He was privy to the latest plans as Israel prepares for a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip to further target Hamas’s military infrastructure.
  • This is the first time a senior US official has joined these consultations since the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago, when Henry Kissinger attended Golda Meir’s security cabinet.
    • This is further testament to the two countries’ close coordination.
    • It complements the US decision to send US aircraft carriers to the region and resupply Israel with advanced munitions.
    • It is also part of a US effort to deter Iran and Hezbollah from opening up another front.
    • US influence will also be encouraging Israel to allow in into Gaza.
  • Last night US Centcom commander Michael Kurilla arrived in Israel to meet with IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi. On arrival he confirmed, “I’m here to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and am particularly focused on avoiding other parties expanding the conflict.”
  • The close US-Israel cooperation is expected to be solidified further with a short visit by President Biden to Israel in the next day or two.
  • Biden is expected to use the opportunity of a regional visit to also meet Arab allies.
  • In a speech to Parliament yesterday, UK Prime Minister Sunak reaffirmed British commitment to Israel. He “called for the immediate release of all hostages. And I say to them: we stand with you; we stand with Israel.”
  • Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with Russian President Putin. According to Netanyahu’s office, “the Prime Minister made it clear that Israel had been attacked by brutal and abhorrent murderers, had gone to war determined and united, and would not stop until it had destroyed Hamas’s military and governing capabilities.”
  • Netanyahu and Putin were once considered close, particularly having reached understanding over Israeli interests in , but have more recently drifted apart. Israel’s support for Ukraine and Russia’s subsequent reliance on Iranian weapons have frayed relations.
  • Yesterday at the UN Security Council, a Russian ceasefire proposal was rejected. Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan said Israel would not stop until it defeats and destroys the Nazi Hamas, whose goal is to destroy the State of Israel.

October 16, 2023

Airstrikes and preparations for ground invasion continue

In the south: Intensive Israeli air strikes on Hamas targets in the Strip continued yesterday. 250 targets were hit during the day, and a further 50 sites overnight. With a particular focus on Gaza City, targets included Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad military headquarters, observation posts, and several rocket launching sites.

  • The IDF confirmed that it had killed Muataz Eid, a senior Hamas commander and the head of national security for the terror group’s southern district. In addition, the IDF have released a list of 5 other senior Hamas officials killed.
  • Ahead of an anticipated ground invasion, the IAF has taken IDF ground commanders on reconnaissance sorties over the Strip in recent days, allowing for up-to-date birds eye views of the terrain.
  • Contradictory reports suggest that Israel has agreed to a temporary ceasefire this morning, to allow for the re-opening of the Rafah Crossing to allow foreign passport holders to exit Gaza and aid to enter. However, this has been denied by the prime minister’s office.
  • As Israel announced that at least 120 families have been informed that their relatives are being held hostage by Hamas in Gaza, Prime Minister Netanyahu met last night with representatives of the families. This morning an IDF spokesperson updated the number of hostages thought taken to 199.
  • After a nine-hour pause, rocket sirens sounded once more in Israel’s south this morning. Overall, over 6,600 rockets have been fired into Israel.

In the north: This morning, the IDF announced the evacuation of civilians from 28 communities up to 2 kilometres from the Lebanese border, following repeated rocket and missile attacks launched on Israel’s north from southern Lebanon. Five attempts at infiltration have also been made.

  • The first Israeli civilian casualty on the norther border was a 40-year-old man killed yesterday in an anti-tank fire directed at the residential neighbourhood in Shtula.
  • An IDF soldier was also killed yesterday by an anti-tank missile fired near the border moshav of Zarit.
  • 6 Israelis killed have now been killed on Israel’s northern border in the last week.

Biden interview: In an interview with CBS, President Biden affirmed his belief that Israel can accomplish its war aims alone, without the need for US troops. “Israel has one of the finest fighting forces,” he said. “I guarantee we’re going to provide them everything they need.”

  • Israel, he said, had “to go after Hamas… Hamas is a bunch of cowards. They’re hiding behind the civilians.” Hamas also “engaged in barbarism that is as consequential as the Holocaust.”
  • Biden confirmed that the US remains in talks with Egypt about establishing a humanitarian corridor “to get these children and women out” of Gaza.
  • “I’m confident that there’s going to be an ability for the innocents in Gaza to be able to have access to medicine and food and water,” he said.
  • Yesterday, Israel announced that water had been restored to southern parts of the Strip, following conversations between Biden and Netanyahu.
  • President Biden warned against an Israeli re-occupation of Gaza. He also acknowledged that steps towards a two state solution could not be pursued whilst Hamas remains, but that a “path to a Palestinian state” must be a future aim. Jerusalem, he said, “understands that significant portions of the Palestinian people do not share the views of Hamas and Hezbollah.”
  • Asked whether the US could maintain simultaneous support for both Israeli and Ukrainian war efforts, Biden said: “we’re the United States of America for God’s sake, the most powerful nation… We can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defence.”

Context: So far, the campaign has focused on an intense bombing campaign again Hamas military infrastructure. However, with many Hamas military assets understood to buried in tunnels underground, at some point a ground incursion will also be necessary.

  • The army is preparing for a ground incursion. It has been gathering intelligence on Hamas’s fortifications and preparing operational battle plans.
  • In an effort to avoid civilian casualties inside Gaza, Israel continues to encourage northern Gazans to move south.
  • Israel’s war cabinet that includes the prime minister, defence minister, Ministers Gantz, Eisenkot and Dermer have clarified the war’s objectives:
    • Toppling the Hamas regime and destroying its military capabilities.
    • Removing the threat of terrorism from the Gaza Strip.
    • Maximum effort to return the hostages.
    • Defending the state’s borders and its citizens.
  • While Israel is currently focused on the Gaza Strip, they are acutely aware of the more significant threat posed by Hezbollah in the north.
  • Hezbollah’s attack yesterday, the first time against civilian targets in northern Israel further raises the tension.
  • Hezbollah is also threating to intensify their attacks if there is a ground incursion into Gaza.
  • There is a live policy debate over whether to continue to respond to Hezbollah aggression as isolated incidents (returning fire to its source) and avoid a wider confrontation. Alternatively, with IDF preparedness at its height, whether this is the right time to target their elite Radwan forces that are gathered close to the border.
  • During his visit to Israel over the weekend, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin is thought to have warned Israeli officials against an escalation against Hezbollah at this time. In return, Austin pledged to send US aircraft and pilots to actively engage in defence of Israel were Hezbollah to strike first.
  • Both the US secretaries of state and defence visited Israel last week and Netanyahu and President Biden have spoken five times since the attack last Saturday.
  • Residents of the north are fearful of a similar type of invasion as occurred on the Gaza Strip periphery, though Hezbollah is considered an even more formidable military power.
  • Israel is also concerned that Iran has increased efforts to deliver advanced weapons to Hezbollah, hence the Syrian reports of attacks against their airports and targeting of Iranian weapon convoys.
  • The Israeli military doctrine prepares for a multi front war, but focusing on one front is clearly a more manageable task.

Looking ahead: The aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip is expected to continue. With an anticipated land incursion, the IDF may still want to display an element of surprise regarding the timing and nature of the attack.

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has invited US President Biden to visit Israel in the next few days as a show of solidarity.
  • Qatar is said to remain engaged in negotiations with Hamas aimed at the release of hostages, with proposals being made to release foreign nationals and dual nationals as a priority.

October 13, 2023

Gazans told to move south to safety

Inside the Gaza Strip: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has continued to attack Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip.

  • The IDF announced they struck 750 military targets overnight, including underground Hamas tunnels, military compounds and posts, residences of senior terrorist operatives which were used as military command centres, weapons storage warehouses, communication rooms and targeted senior terrorist operatives.
  • IAF Commander Maj Gen Tomer Bar said that more than 6,000 bombs have been dropped on Gaza and that this was just the beginning. “We have a list of everyone who participated in the despicable crimes against our family, the residents of the Gaza periphery communities. We’ll get them.”
  • As well as air strikes the IDF is now calling for a mass evacuation of 1.1 million residents of northern Gaza. All civilians living north of the Besor Stream (Wadi Gaza) will be required to evacuate their homes, including the entire population of Gaza City, the Jabalia refugee camp and the towns of Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya.
  • For example, leaflets were dropped with the warning, “to the residents of Beit Lahiya, the actions of the terrorist organisation Hamas pushed the IDF forces to act against the terrorist organisation Hamas in the areas where you live. For your safety, you must evacuate your homes immediately. The IDF is not interested in harming you or your family members. Anyone who is near Hamas terrorists or terrorist facilities will put their lives in danger.”
  • Other messages stated, “the Hamas terrorist organisation waged a war against the State of Israel and Gaza City is an area where military operations take place. This evacuation is for your own safety. You will be able to return to Gaza City only when another announcement permitting it is made. Do not approach the area of the security fence with the State of Israel.”
  • The IDF emphasised that they are, “committed to international law and minimising harm to civilians – contrasting Hamas’s actions, which resemble the dark days of the Islamic State. We are not fighting the residents of Gaza but Hamas, which is worse than IS. This is an event of several days, and we will act to expedite it.”
  • The UN has warned Israel of “severe humanitarian consequences.”
  • In response, Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan replied, “for many years, the UN has turned a blind eye to Hamas’s military buildup and its use of the civilian population and civilian infrastructure in the Strip as a hiding place for its weapons and killing machinery. Now, instead of standing with Israel, whose citizens have been slaughtered by Hamas terrorists and who tries to minimise harm to uninvolved parties, [the UN] preaches to Israel instead.”
  • Hamas is trying to prevent the evacuation by saying it is false. It prefers the civilian population to remain in place and serve as human shields.
  • Hamas health officials in Gaza say the death toll has risen to over 1,500 with 6,600 wounded.

Arab world: Hamas has called on all Palestinians and all members of the Arab Islamic Nations for a “Day of Rage” and to mobilise and come from wherever they are to the closest place they can to Al-Aqsa, calling on them to cross borders.

  • There is a high state of alert across all of Israel, and in Jerusalem in particular.
  • Mahmoud Abbas, the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, rejected the call from Hamas and said, “we reject killing civilians and abusing them on both sides because this is against morality and international law. Peaceful resistance is the way to achieve our national goals.”
  • This morning, Jordanian forces are deployed on the Israeli border to prevent demonstrators from approaching.
  • Egypt President Sisi said, “we call for a rational approach in de-escalation and for removing civilians from the cycle of revenge. I urge a return to the path of negotiations.”
  • Demonstrations in support of Hamas are expected in many areas across Lebanon as well as in Iraq and Iran.
  • Yesterday, Syrian state media reported that Israeli airstrikes hit the international airports in Damascus and Aleppo.
  • The Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, arrived in Lebanon today. He is expected to meet with Hezbollah leadership, and possibly Hamas representatives as well, to coordinate their next steps.

UK sends forces to East Med: Continuing its support for Israel, the UK last night announced that it will send two Royal Navy ships – RFA Argus and RFA Lyme Bay – as well as surveillance aircraft, three Merlin helicopters, and Royal Marines to the eastern Mediterranean.

  • The P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol and surveillance aircraft will monitor attempts to transfer weapons to regional terrorist organisations.
  • Reinforcements have also been sent to the UK’s Cypriot air base RAF Akrotiri.
  • In a call with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Prime Minister Sunak “reaffirm[ed] the UK’s steadfast support for Israel following Hamas’ appalling terrorist attack,” Downing Street confirmed.
  • Sunak also spoke to Netanyahu of the need to “take all possible measures to protect ordinary Palestinians and facilitate .” He later spoke with Egyptian President Sisi about the “challenging security situation” at Egypt’s Rafah border crossing with Gaza and “offered the UK’s support to try to manage this situation and keep the route open for humanitarian and consular reasons, including for British nationals.”
  • Following UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on Wednesday becoming the first official of a major international ally to visit Israel since the attacks, more are expected to travel to Israel today. The president of the European Commission, the president of the European Parliament, and the foreign ministers of Germany, Canada, and Italy are all set to arrive.

Context: The US and UK’s military presence in the region serves as a projection of force and a warning primarily to Hezbollah and Iran not to attack Israel.

  • While UK political support for Israel’s right to respond decisively to Hamas remains firm, there is increasing disquiet, including from the same supportive voices, about the situation of Gazan civilians.
  • Egypt has called for Israel to cease its bombing of the Rafah crossing to allow for the flow of Jordanian aid into Gaza.
  • Last night Sisi appeared to rule out Egypt allowing Gazan civilians to escape the Strip through the crossing and into Egypt. Their place was to “stay steadfast and remain on their land,” he said.
  • Hezbollah has so far refrained from major escalation on the norther border, despite Hamas’s call at the outset of its surprise attack for other members of the “resistance” to join in.
  • President Biden’s stark warning to other regional actors of the consequences of joining the fight likely played a role in the Iranian proxy exercising caution.
  • Israeli troop reinforcements have been sent to the northern front and air defences set to maximum sensitivity. This perhaps explains the false alarm of a drone infiltration of northern Israel from southern Lebanon on Wednesday. Many residents of towns in the border area have left their homes.
  • Incoming rocket fire from Gaza continues, but at a lower rate than on previous days. An evacuation of Sderot has been approved by the Israeli government.
  • The apparent strikes in came two days after the IDF confirmed carrying out artillery strikes in on the Syrian source of mortar fire into Israel.
  • Israel does not comment on its strikes in , but it is rare for such strikes to take place during the day. It is possible that these strikes were aimed to prevent weapons shipments.

October 12, 2023

Richard Pater on BBC Radio 2 with Jeremy Vine

On 12th October 2023, BICOM Director Richard Pater was interviewed by Jeremy Vine on BBC Radio 2. Richard discussed the impact of the Hamas attacks on Israeli society and Israel’s campaign in the Gaza Strip.

October 12, 2023

Emergency unity government formed as UK Foreign Secretary visits

Emergency unity government formed:  Prime Minister Netanyahu and National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz last night came to an agreement for Gantz and his party’s 12 MKs to join an emergency unity government.

  • Gantz will immediately join Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant in a special war cabinet, which will oversee Israel’s response to Hamas’s deadly surprise attack. Gantz’s party colleague and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot will attend the war cabinet as an observer, as will Ron Dermer of the Likud.
  • National Unity Party MKs Gideon Saar, Chili Tropper and Yifat Shasha-Biton will be appointed ministers and will join the wider security cabinet.
  • Stressing that his decision did not signal a fundamental shift in his political differences with Netanyahu, Gantz said: “this isn’t a political partnership, this is a shared fate. We are lending a shoulder and are enlisting in the war that is being prosecuted by the prime minister and the defence minister.”

Foreign Secretary Cleverly visits Israel: He became the first foreign minister to visit Israel since the country was plunged into war by Hamas.

  • Cleverly visited Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, also accompanying Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen to the southern village of Ofakim to witness the devastation of Hamas’s attack first-hand.
  • During his southern stop, Cleverly was forced to join his hosts in running for cover when an air raid siren sounded.
  • “I’m in Israel today to show the UK’s unwavering support for Israel,” Cleverly said. “The facts are clear. Hamas are terrorists. Israel has the right to defend itself. Hamas and Hamas alone are responsible and accountable for these appalling attacks. Terrorism must never be allowed to prevail.”
  • King Charles also offered his solidarity to Israel yesterday. In a lengthy phone call with Israel’s President Herzog, the king offered his condolences on the loss of the fallen Israelis.

Gaza Strip Periphery: As of yesterday, there were still pockets of Hamas terrorists inside Israel. Residents in Ashkelon, Netivot and Sderot were instructed to lock themselves inside their homes over these concerns.

  • Three terrorists were killed in exchanges of fire with IDF troops near Kibbutz Zikim yesterday. Another three terrorists were killed last night near Kibbutz Nir Am. Five more terrorists were killed in other parts of the Gaza periphery.
  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said yesterday, “we are continuing to purge the periphery. There are isolated engagements but the territory is under the security forces’ control.”
  • He added, “in the past two days no terrorists have crossed the fence. They have been killed before the fence. There are hundreds of terrorists’ bodies in that area, which we will remove moving forward. We have found thus far the bodies of roughly 1,000 terrorists, and we expect to find hundreds more. That attests to the scope of the assault.”
  • Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, touring the border communities, praising soldiers and civilians for their courage, added “we are going to wipe this thing called Hamas, ISIS Gaza, from the face of the earth. It isn’t going to exist anymore. We aren’t going to have people slaughtered while we just carry on with our daily lives.”

Inside Gaza: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) continues to attack Hamas targets across the Gaza Strip.

  • The IDF has attacked around 3,000 targets. Yesterday’s targets included the Islamic University, which served as a training centre for Hamas engineers, and the home of the father of Hamas Military Wing Commander Mohammed Deif, killing Deif’s brother.
  • The IDF conducted a wave of strikes targeting Hamas’s Nukhba elite forces, striking their operational command centres used by Saturday’s infiltrators.
  • IAF aircraft struck Muhammad Abu Shamla, a senior Hamas naval operative in the Rafah Brigade. According to the IDF, his home was also used to store weapons.
  • The IDF also announced that IAF aircraft destroyed an advanced aircraft detection tool that had been developed by Hamas. Those devices were hidden in solar water heaters.
  • Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, related to the continued airstrikes saying, “every place there are Hamas leaders, the IDF is attacking precisely and powerfully.” IDF Spokesperson Hagari said, “we prioritise killing senior officials”.
  • Hamas health officials in Gaza say the death toll has risen to 1,200. The number of wounded has reached 5,600. The United Nations said 340,000 people have fled their homes.

The northern front: Panic was provoked early yesterday evening, as 2 million northern residents headed for shelters after an apparent drone incursion from Lebanon, which later proved to be a false alarm.

  • Sirens rang across the north, with reports of 15-20 drones apparently crossing into Israeli territory. Shortly after, further sirens sounded amid a suspected terrorist infiltration alert in the northern town of Ma’ayan Baruch, and later in Ma’alot Tarshiha.
  • Fearing a large-scale attack on the northern front, IDF Home Front Command warned locals to stay in their homes.
  • IDF spokesman Hagari explained that “there was an error, and we are investigating it — we will check if it was a technical fault or human error… The bottom line,” he continued, “is I want to calm the public and say that at this stage, there is no major security incident in the north.”

Context: The inclusion of Gantz and Eisenkot, both formerly IDF Chiefs of Staff, into the inner security cabinet brings vital security experience as part of the inner team to lead the country.

  • The inclusion of the more moderate National Unity Party into the collation further dilutes the influence of the more extreme members of the government. As part of the agreement, no legislation unrelated to the war will be advanced by the emergency government.
  • At this point neither Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) nor Yisrael Beiteinu’s Avigdor Liberman will join an emergency government, after both called for Smotrich and Ben Gvir to be removed as a condition for joining the government.
  • However, Netanyahu and Gantz pledged last night to reserve Lapid a seat in the war cabinet, should he change his mind.
  • The visit of the British Foreign Secretary is further indication of strong UK-Israel ties. Underscoring bipartisan support Opposition Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer told his party’s conference this week that “Israel must always have the right to defend her people.”
  • Concern remains over the prospect of the substantially better armed Hezbollah answering its fellow Iranian proxy Hamas’s call to join the fighting.
  • So far, Hezbollah has only carried out limited provocations along the border. This is being interpreted as the minimum they need to do to show support.
  • Hezbollah appears deterred from substantial escalation. Contributing to this was President Biden’s stark warning to other organisations to get involved in the fighting, and the US deployment of aircraft carriers off the Israeli coast.
  • Following President Biden’s supportive speech, a first plane loaded with munitions arrived in Israel from the US.
  • The overall death toll on the Israeli side from Saturday’s attack stands at 1,200 people. In addition, 3,007 people have been admitted to hospitals, among whom 28 are in critical condition, 345 are in serious condition, 563 are in moderate condition.

Looking ahead: Foreign Secretary Cleverly was the first senior foreign official to visit. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to arrive today.

  • A second US aircraft carrier is also expected to arrive. According to Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander of US Central Command, “the arrival of these highly capable forces to the region is a strong signal of deterrence should any actor hostile to Israel consider trying to take advantage of this situation.”

October 11, 2023

President Biden offers Israel his unequivocal backing

What happened: In a presidential address, President Biden, flanked by his vice president and secretary of state, reassured Israel of their strong support.

  • Biden spoke of Hamas as a “pure, unadulterated evil… unleashed on this world.” “The brutality of Hamas — this bloodthirstiness,” he said later, “brings to mind the worst rampages of ISIS.”
  • He made explicit the US’s unequivocal backing of Israel in its response. “We must be crystal clear,” he said: “we stand with Israel.  We stand with Israel.  And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself, and respond to this attack.”
  • In materialising this support, Biden confirmed that the US was “surging additional military assistance, including ammunition and interceptors to replenish Iron Dome. We’re going to make sure that Israel does not run out of these critical assets to defend its cities and its citizens.” He continued: “The United States has also enhanced our military force posture in the region to strengthen our deterrence.”
  • In a thinly-veiled warning to Iran and its other proxies such as Hezbollah, Biden said: “to any country, any organisation, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: Don’t.”

On the Gaza Strip border: The Israeli death toll from the weekend attacks rose to over 1,200, with an additional estimated 150 hostages captive inside Gaza, and with 500 of the over 3,000 Israelis injured still hospitalised – 28 in critical and 345 in serious condition.

  • Hamas rockets continue to strike at central and southern Israel, now exceeding 5,000 since Saturday morning.
  • Four buildings in Sderot were hit this morning, and a 40-year-old man moderately wounded by shrapnel.
  • Despite previous assurances that the terror threat inside Israel was neutralised there were still terror cells operating inside Israel.
  • According to the IDF 18 Palestinian terrorists in seven separate incidents were killed inside Israeli in the last day.
  • Among the incidents, on Tuesday night, troops killed three Palestinian terrorists in the Ashkelon industrial zone.
  • Hamas have again sent frogman to infiltrate from the sea in Zikim, which were again successfully repelled.
  • Over 1,000 bodies of terrorists have been found in the Gaza border area.
  • As Israeli forces enter Israeli border communities, the scale of the atrocities are being further exposed. These include in Be’eri, where 100 Israelis are though to have been murdered, and in Kfar Aza, where Major General Itai Veruv said: “I’ve served as a combat soldier and officer for 39 years… I’ve never seen anything that comes close to this. It’s not even something that our parents knew. This is something out of the world of our grandfathers back in Europe, from the pogroms and the Holocaust.”

Inside Gaza: The Israeli Air Force is conducting an intensive bombing campaign and has struck over 2,500 Hamas targets.

  • Overnight, it launched 200 attacks on the Al-Furqan neighbourhood in Gaza City which is a known Hamas hub.
  • Over 70 Hamas targets in the Gaza City district of at-Tuffah were struck, as well as a military structure operated by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
  • Over 80 Hamas infrastructure targets were hit in norther Gaza’s Beit Hanoun, including two bank branches used by Hamas, an underground tunnel, several war rooms, and other military installations.
  • Another target hit included the Khan Younis home of the father of Mohammad Deif, the senior Hamas military commander. The home of Hamas’s military wing spokesman, known as Abu Obeida, was also hit.
  • According to Palestinian sources 950 Gazans have been killed, with 5,000 injured.

Northern front: Missiles were launched at northern Israel from Lebanon last night. 15 rockets were launched from Lebanon – 4 were intercepted by Iron Dome with the rest landing in open areas. Though Hamas claimed responsibility, Hezbollah is considered responsible for any fire emanating from southern Lebanon, and IDF tanks shelled two Hezbollah posts in response.

  • An anti-tank guided missile was later launched from Lebanon at an armoured vehicle near the northern town of Avivim. It was claimed by Hezbollah and an Israeli helicopter struck a third Hezbollah site in response.
  • Mortar fire was also incoming from , with several crossing into Israeli territory. They landed in open areas, causing no damage. The IDF carried out artillery strikes on the mortars’ source in in response.
  • This morning there were more sirens in northern Israel.

Context: The Israeli government has set as its objective to completely destroy all of Hamas’s military capabilities.

  • With 300,000 reservists called up – deployed both in the north and the south – the IDF is poised to intensify its engagement. The intensive air force bombing campaign is also understood to be part of the preparation to allow for a ground incursion, by targeting Hamas’s preparations.
  • Biden’s warning is being interpreted as a direct threat to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that if Iran’s Lebanese proxy attempts to intervene in the fighting, it will be met with the might of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group recently moved to the Eastern Mediterranean along with a bolstered US fighter aircraft presence.
  • Israeli commentators have interpreted Biden’s backing as the most significant support a US president has ever given Israel.
  • In adding that “this is not about party or politics; this is about the security of our world, the security of the United States of America,” Biden underscored that Israel’s security is intertwined with that of the free world.
  • Biden also confirmed he had spoken yesterday with the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy to discuss “coordinat[ing] our united response”.
  • Similarly, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told Sky News that “we stand in solidarity with Israel and the people of Israel in the face of these barbaric acts of terrorism”.
  • Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, has also indicated that the US is in negotiations to try to create a safe passage for Gaza’s civilians to leave the Strip.

Looking ahead: As part of the pressure tactic on Hamas, Israel has temporarily blocked all supplies into Gaza.

  • According to sources inside Gaza, their power plant only has enough fuel for another 10-12 hours. The main Shifa hospital in Gaza City has enough diesel to power generators for another four days.
  • The bombing campaign is seen to be a precursor to a ground operation, that will further target Hamas and possibly include attempts to free the hostages.
  • On the Israeli internal political front, negotiations are ongoing to bring Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party into the government.

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