On 18th October, BICOM Director Richard Pater appeared on BBC Newsnight to discuss the latest developments in Israel’s response to Hamas’s attacks of October 7th.

Biden visit: The US president flew to Israel yesterday, in a further show of support for Israel and its right to respond to Hamas’s brutal attacks of 7^th October.

• Speaking alongside Prime Minister Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Biden spoke powerfully of the plight of the families of the at least 199 Israeli hostages held in Gaza, and of the redolence of the brutal Hamas attacks with the Holocaust.
• “You’re not alone,” he told Israelis. “For as long as the United States stands, and we will stand forever, we will not let you ever be alone.”
• Biden confirmed that he would be seeking Congressional approval for an unprecedentedly large package of US aid. “We are going to keep Iron Dome fully supplied so it can continue standing sentinel over Israeli skies, saving Israeli lives.”
• He also reiterated his firm warning to other regional state and non-state actors not to exploit Israel’s grief and Gazan focus by escalating their own attacks on Israel. “My message [to them] remains the same as it was a week ago. Don’t. Don’t. Don’t,” he said.
• Biden also said that with “the Palestinian people… suffering greatly as well,” the humanitarian situation in Gaza must be addressed. “The people of Gaza need food, water, medicine, shelter,” he said. “Today, I asked the Israeli cabinet… to agree to the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza, based on the understanding that there will be inspections, and that the aid should go to civilians, not to Hamas.”
• Rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, which has continued consistently since October 7^th, was restricted to border areas for the duration of Biden’s visit. Once the president left, however, central Israel was once more subject to a barrage of rockets. In the last two weeks over 7000 rockets have fired towards Israel.

Hospital blast: Biden backed the Israeli evidence that the blast had been caused not by an IDF bomb but by a misfired Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) rocket.

• Biden said “based on the information we have seen to date, it appears as a result of an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in Gaza”.
• Footage from a fixed Channel 12 camera overlooking the Gaza Strip showed no incoming missiles from the IDF at the time, but did show launches emanating from inside Gaza.
• The IDF released aerial footage also showing rockets launched with the hospital under their flightpath.
• The IDF revealed that a total of 450 rockets have misfired and landed inside Gaza.
• Independent OSINT experts have also analysed the footage and confirmed that the damage is inconsistent with IDF ordinances.

In Gaza: The IDF has confirmed that it has killed Rafat Abu Hilal, head of the military wing of Gaza’s Popular Resistance Committees terror group, a faction separate to both Hamas and PIJ.

• Ten members of the Hamas Nukbah force, which carried out the October 7^th attacks, have also been killed in the last day, while the IDF also says it has destroyed various Hamas sites, including anti-tank missile launch sites, tunnel shafts, intelligence infrastructure, and command centres.

In the north: In the early hours of this morning, the IDF confirmed that it had struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including a military observation post from which a guided anti-tank missile was fired toward the northern town of Rosh Hanikra on Wednesday.

Context: Biden is the first US president to visit Israel in wartime, and the first to attend an Israeli war cabinet.

• Biden gave Israel full backing for its military operation. His Israeli interlocuters stressed that they will need time – weeks or even months – to defeat and dismantle Hamas’s terror network.
• Biden’s strength in previously warning other regional actors – and in backing it with the despatching of two US aircraft carriers to the region – has been widely credited with contributing significantly to Hezbollah not seriously escalating attacks on Israel’s northern front.
• There have been numerous attacks emanating from Lebanon, with Hezbollah firing at least sic anti-tank missiles, over 30 mortars and five cross border infiltrations. These have all focused on the immediate vicinity of the border area.  While Hamas leaders in Qatar have asked Iran to broaden the scope of their attacks and target Tel Aviv and Haifa, they are yet to do so.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu later confirmed that Israel had agreed to Biden’s request that aid be allowed into Gaza, and that Israel would not block the transfer of aid through Egypt’s Rafah Crossing.
• In parallel to Biden’s visit, the US used its UN Security Council veto to block a Brazilian resolution calling for a ceasefire to allow aid to enter the Strip.
• Israel and the US are also coordinating on the hostage issue and they called on the Red Cross to visit them, particularly due to concern that many of them may have suffered injuries when they were captured.
• Biden had been due to continue on to Amman from Israel, for further discussions with Sisi, Jordan’s King Abdullah, and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. The Arab leaders cancelled the meeting, however, in the wake of the Tuesday’s deadly blast at al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza City.
• The cancellation is perceived as a missed opportunity to gain Arab backing for the plans for Gaza the day after the military operation.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrived in Israel this morning for a two-day visit.

• He will meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Herzog, and with representatives of the hostages’ families.
• Touching down, he told Israelis, “I want you to know that the UK and I stand with you,” and that the UK condemned Hamas’s “unspeakable, horrific acts of terrorism.”
• President Biden reached an understanding with President Sisi to allow 20 aid trucks in through the Rafah crossing.
• They are expected to enter the Gaza Strip tomorrow through the Rafah crossing, with more expected to follow. Biden made clear that if Hamas commandeers the aid or prevented its entry, it would stop.

In the south: Intensive Israeli air strikes on Hamas targets in the Strip continued yesterday. 250 targets were hit during the day, and a further 50 sites overnight. With a particular focus on Gaza City, targets included Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad military headquarters, observation posts, and several rocket launching sites.

• The IDF confirmed that it had killed Muataz Eid, a senior Hamas commander and the head of national security for the terror group’s southern district. In addition, the IDF have released a list of 5 other senior Hamas officials killed.
• Ahead of an anticipated ground invasion, the IAF has taken IDF ground commanders on reconnaissance sorties over the Strip in recent days, allowing for up-to-date birds eye views of the terrain.
• Contradictory reports suggest that Israel has agreed to a temporary ceasefire this morning, to allow for the re-opening of the Rafah Crossing to allow foreign passport holders to exit Gaza and aid to enter. However, this has been denied by the prime minister’s office.
• As Israel announced that at least 120 families have been informed that their relatives are being held hostage by Hamas in Gaza, Prime Minister Netanyahu met last night with representatives of the families. This morning an IDF spokesperson updated the number of hostages thought taken to 199.
• After a nine-hour pause, rocket sirens sounded once more in Israel’s south this morning. Overall, over 6,600 rockets have been fired into Israel.

In the north: This morning, the IDF announced the evacuation of civilians from 28 communities up to 2 kilometres from the Lebanese border, following repeated rocket and missile attacks launched on Israel’s north from southern Lebanon. Five attempts at infiltration have also been made.

• The first Israeli civilian casualty on the norther border was a 40-year-old man killed yesterday in an anti-tank fire directed at the residential neighbourhood in Shtula.
• An IDF soldier was also killed yesterday by an anti-tank missile fired near the border moshav of Zarit.
• 6 Israelis killed have now been killed on Israel’s northern border in the last week.

Biden interview: In an interview with CBS, President Biden affirmed his belief that Israel can accomplish its war aims alone, without the need for US troops. “Israel has one of the finest fighting forces,” he said. “I guarantee we’re going to provide them everything they need.”

• Israel, he said, had “to go after Hamas… Hamas is a bunch of cowards. They’re hiding behind the civilians.” Hamas also “engaged in barbarism that is as consequential as the Holocaust.”
• Biden confirmed that the US remains in talks with Egypt about establishing a humanitarian corridor “to get these children and women out” of Gaza.
• “I’m confident that there’s going to be an ability for the innocents in Gaza to be able to have access to medicine and food and water,” he said.
• Yesterday, Israel announced that water had been restored to southern parts of the Strip, following conversations between Biden and Netanyahu.
• President Biden warned against an Israeli re-occupation of Gaza. He also acknowledged that steps towards a two state solution could not be pursued whilst Hamas remains, but that a “path to a Palestinian state” must be a future aim. Jerusalem, he said, “understands that significant portions of the Palestinian people do not share the views of Hamas and Hezbollah.”
• Asked whether the US could maintain simultaneous support for both Israeli and Ukrainian war efforts, Biden said: “we’re the United States of America for God’s sake, the most powerful nation… We can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defence.”

Context: So far, the campaign has focused on an intense bombing campaign again Hamas military infrastructure. However, with many Hamas military assets understood to buried in tunnels underground, at some point a ground incursion will also be necessary.

• The army is preparing for a ground incursion. It has been gathering intelligence on Hamas’s fortifications and preparing operational battle plans.
• In an effort to avoid civilian casualties inside Gaza, Israel continues to encourage northern Gazans to move south.
• Israel’s war cabinet that includes the prime minister, defence minister, Ministers Gantz, Eisenkot and Dermer have clarified the war’s objectives:
  • Toppling the Hamas regime and destroying its military capabilities.
  • Removing the threat of terrorism from the Gaza Strip.
  • Maximum effort to return the hostages.
  • Defending the state’s borders and its citizens.
• While Israel is currently focused on the Gaza Strip, they are acutely aware of the more significant threat posed by Hezbollah in the north.
• Hezbollah’s attack yesterday, the first time against civilian targets in northern Israel further raises the tension.
• Hezbollah is also threating to intensify their attacks if there is a ground incursion into Gaza.
• There is a live policy debate over whether to continue to respond to Hezbollah aggression as isolated incidents (returning fire to its source) and avoid a wider confrontation. Alternatively, with IDF preparedness at its height, whether this is the right time to target their elite Radwan forces that are gathered close to the border.
• During his visit to Israel over the weekend, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin is thought to have warned Israeli officials against an escalation against Hezbollah at this time. In return, Austin pledged to send US aircraft and pilots to actively engage in defence of Israel were Hezbollah to strike first.
• Both the US secretaries of state and defence visited Israel last week and Netanyahu and President Biden have spoken five times since the attack last Saturday.
• Residents of the north are fearful of a similar type of invasion as occurred on the Gaza Strip periphery, though Hezbollah is considered an even more formidable military power.
• Israel is also concerned that Iran has increased efforts to deliver advanced weapons to Hezbollah, hence the Syrian reports of attacks against their airports and targeting of Iranian weapon convoys.
• The Israeli military doctrine prepares for a multi front war, but focusing on one front is clearly a more manageable task.

Looking ahead: The aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip is expected to continue. With an anticipated land incursion, the IDF may still want to display an element of surprise regarding the timing and nature of the attack.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu has invited US President Biden to visit Israel in the next few days as a show of solidarity.
• Qatar is said to remain engaged in negotiations with Hamas aimed at the release of hostages, with proposals being made to release foreign nationals and dual nationals as a priority.

On 12th October 2023, BICOM Director Richard Pater was interviewed by Jeremy Vine on BBC Radio 2. Richard discussed the impact of the Hamas attacks on Israeli society and Israel’s campaign in the Gaza Strip.

Emergency unity government formed:  Prime Minister Netanyahu and National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz last night came to an agreement for Gantz and his party’s 12 MKs to join an emergency unity government.

• Gantz will immediately join Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant in a special war cabinet, which will oversee Israel’s response to Hamas’s deadly surprise attack. Gantz’s party colleague and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot will attend the war cabinet as an observer, as will Ron Dermer of the Likud.
• National Unity Party MKs Gideon Saar, Chili Tropper and Yifat Shasha-Biton will be appointed ministers and will join the wider security cabinet.
• Stressing that his decision did not signal a fundamental shift in his political differences with Netanyahu, Gantz said: “this isn’t a political partnership, this is a shared fate. We are lending a shoulder and are enlisting in the war that is being prosecuted by the prime minister and the defence minister.”

Foreign Secretary Cleverly visits Israel: He became the first foreign minister to visit Israel since the country was plunged into war by Hamas.

• Cleverly visited Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, also accompanying Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen to the southern village of Ofakim to witness the devastation of Hamas’s attack first-hand.
• During his southern stop, Cleverly was forced to join his hosts in running for cover when an air raid siren sounded.
• “I’m in Israel today to show the UK’s unwavering support for Israel,” Cleverly said. “The facts are clear. Hamas are terrorists. Israel has the right to defend itself. Hamas and Hamas alone are responsible and accountable for these appalling attacks. Terrorism must never be allowed to prevail.”
• King Charles also offered his solidarity to Israel yesterday. In a lengthy phone call with Israel’s President Herzog, the king offered his condolences on the loss of the fallen Israelis.

Gaza Strip Periphery: As of yesterday, there were still pockets of Hamas terrorists inside Israel. Residents in Ashkelon, Netivot and Sderot were instructed to lock themselves inside their homes over these concerns.

• Three terrorists were killed in exchanges of fire with IDF troops near Kibbutz Zikim yesterday. Another three terrorists were killed last night near Kibbutz Nir Am. Five more terrorists were killed in other parts of the Gaza periphery.
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said yesterday, “we are continuing to purge the periphery. There are isolated engagements but the territory is under the security forces’ control.”
• He added, “in the past two days no terrorists have crossed the fence. They have been killed before the fence. There are hundreds of terrorists’ bodies in that area, which we will remove moving forward. We have found thus far the bodies of roughly 1,000 terrorists, and we expect to find hundreds more. That attests to the scope of the assault.”
• Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, touring the border communities, praising soldiers and civilians for their courage, added “we are going to wipe this thing called Hamas, ISIS Gaza, from the face of the earth. It isn’t going to exist anymore. We aren’t going to have people slaughtered while we just carry on with our daily lives.”

Inside Gaza: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) continues to attack Hamas targets across the Gaza Strip.

• The IDF has attacked around 3,000 targets. Yesterday’s targets included the Islamic University, which served as a training centre for Hamas engineers, and the home of the father of Hamas Military Wing Commander Mohammed Deif, killing Deif’s brother.
• The IDF conducted a wave of strikes targeting Hamas’s Nukhba elite forces, striking their operational command centres used by Saturday’s infiltrators.
• IAF aircraft struck Muhammad Abu Shamla, a senior Hamas naval operative in the Rafah Brigade. According to the IDF, his home was also used to store weapons.
• The IDF also announced that IAF aircraft destroyed an advanced aircraft detection tool that had been developed by Hamas. Those devices were hidden in solar water heaters.
• Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, related to the continued airstrikes saying, “every place there are Hamas leaders, the IDF is attacking precisely and powerfully.” IDF Spokesperson Hagari said, “we prioritise killing senior officials”.
• Hamas health officials in Gaza say the death toll has risen to 1,200. The number of wounded has reached 5,600. The United Nations said 340,000 people have fled their homes.

The northern front: Panic was provoked early yesterday evening, as 2 million northern residents headed for shelters after an apparent drone incursion from Lebanon, which later proved to be a false alarm.

• Sirens rang across the north, with reports of 15-20 drones apparently crossing into Israeli territory. Shortly after, further sirens sounded amid a suspected terrorist infiltration alert in the northern town of Ma’ayan Baruch, and later in Ma’alot Tarshiha.
• Fearing a large-scale attack on the northern front, IDF Home Front Command warned locals to stay in their homes.
• IDF spokesman Hagari explained that “there was an error, and we are investigating it — we will check if it was a technical fault or human error… The bottom line,” he continued, “is I want to calm the public and say that at this stage, there is no major security incident in the north.”

Context: The inclusion of Gantz and Eisenkot, both formerly IDF Chiefs of Staff, into the inner security cabinet brings vital security experience as part of the inner team to lead the country.

• The inclusion of the more moderate National Unity Party into the collation further dilutes the influence of the more extreme members of the government. As part of the agreement, no legislation unrelated to the war will be advanced by the emergency government.
• At this point neither Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) nor Yisrael Beiteinu’s Avigdor Liberman will join an emergency government, after both called for Smotrich and Ben Gvir to be removed as a condition for joining the government.
• However, Netanyahu and Gantz pledged last night to reserve Lapid a seat in the war cabinet, should he change his mind.
• The visit of the British Foreign Secretary is further indication of strong UK-Israel ties. Underscoring bipartisan support Opposition Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer told his party’s conference this week that “Israel must always have the right to defend her people.”
• Concern remains over the prospect of the substantially better armed Hezbollah answering its fellow Iranian proxy Hamas’s call to join the fighting.
• So far, Hezbollah has only carried out limited provocations along the border. This is being interpreted as the minimum they need to do to show support.
• Hezbollah appears deterred from substantial escalation. Contributing to this was President Biden’s stark warning to other organisations to get involved in the fighting, and the US deployment of aircraft carriers off the Israeli coast.
• Following President Biden’s supportive speech, a first plane loaded with munitions arrived in Israel from the US.
• The overall death toll on the Israeli side from Saturday’s attack stands at 1,200 people. In addition, 3,007 people have been admitted to hospitals, among whom 28 are in critical condition, 345 are in serious condition, 563 are in moderate condition.

Looking ahead: Foreign Secretary Cleverly was the first senior foreign official to visit. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to arrive today.

• A second US aircraft carrier is also expected to arrive. According to Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander of US Central Command, “the arrival of these highly capable forces to the region is a strong signal of deterrence should any actor hostile to Israel consider trying to take advantage of this situation.”

What happened: In a presidential address, President Biden, flanked by his vice president and secretary of state, reassured Israel of their strong support.

• Biden spoke of Hamas as a “pure, unadulterated evil… unleashed on this world.” “The brutality of Hamas — this bloodthirstiness,” he said later, “brings to mind the worst rampages of ISIS.”
• He made explicit the US’s unequivocal backing of Israel in its response. “We must be crystal clear,” he said: “we stand with Israel.  We stand with Israel.  And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself, and respond to this attack.”
• In materialising this support, Biden confirmed that the US was “surging additional military assistance, including ammunition and interceptors to replenish Iron Dome. We’re going to make sure that Israel does not run out of these critical assets to defend its cities and its citizens.” He continued: “The United States has also enhanced our military force posture in the region to strengthen our deterrence.”
• In a thinly-veiled warning to Iran and its other proxies such as Hezbollah, Biden said: “to any country, any organisation, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: Don’t.”

On the Gaza Strip border: The Israeli death toll from the weekend attacks rose to over 1,200, with an additional estimated 150 hostages captive inside Gaza, and with 500 of the over 3,000 Israelis injured still hospitalised – 28 in critical and 345 in serious condition.

• Hamas rockets continue to strike at central and southern Israel, now exceeding 5,000 since Saturday morning.
• Four buildings in Sderot were hit this morning, and a 40-year-old man moderately wounded by shrapnel.
• Despite previous assurances that the terror threat inside Israel was neutralised there were still terror cells operating inside Israel.
• According to the IDF 18 Palestinian terrorists in seven separate incidents were killed inside Israeli in the last day.
• Among the incidents, on Tuesday night, troops killed three Palestinian terrorists in the Ashkelon industrial zone.
• Hamas have again sent frogman to infiltrate from the sea in Zikim, which were again successfully repelled.
• Over 1,000 bodies of terrorists have been found in the Gaza border area.
• As Israeli forces enter Israeli border communities, the scale of the atrocities are being further exposed. These include in Be’eri, where 100 Israelis are though to have been murdered, and in Kfar Aza, where Major General Itai Veruv said: “I’ve served as a combat soldier and officer for 39 years… I’ve never seen anything that comes close to this. It’s not even something that our parents knew. This is something out of the world of our grandfathers back in Europe, from the pogroms and the Holocaust.”

Inside Gaza: The Israeli Air Force is conducting an intensive bombing campaign and has struck over 2,500 Hamas targets.

• Overnight, it launched 200 attacks on the Al-Furqan neighbourhood in Gaza City which is a known Hamas hub.
• Over 70 Hamas targets in the Gaza City district of at-Tuffah were struck, as well as a military structure operated by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
• Over 80 Hamas infrastructure targets were hit in norther Gaza’s Beit Hanoun, including two bank branches used by Hamas, an underground tunnel, several war rooms, and other military installations.
• Another target hit included the Khan Younis home of the father of Mohammad Deif, the senior Hamas military commander. The home of Hamas’s military wing spokesman, known as Abu Obeida, was also hit.
• According to Palestinian sources 950 Gazans have been killed, with 5,000 injured.

Northern front: Missiles were launched at northern Israel from Lebanon last night. 15 rockets were launched from Lebanon – 4 were intercepted by Iron Dome with the rest landing in open areas. Though Hamas claimed responsibility, Hezbollah is considered responsible for any fire emanating from southern Lebanon, and IDF tanks shelled two Hezbollah posts in response.

• An anti-tank guided missile was later launched from Lebanon at an armoured vehicle near the northern town of Avivim. It was claimed by Hezbollah and an Israeli helicopter struck a third Hezbollah site in response.
• Mortar fire was also incoming from Syria, with several crossing into Israeli territory. They landed in open areas, causing no damage. The IDF carried out artillery strikes on the mortars’ source in Syria in response.
• This morning there were more sirens in northern Israel.

Context: The Israeli government has set as its objective to completely destroy all of Hamas’s military capabilities.

• With 300,000 reservists called up – deployed both in the north and the south – the IDF is poised to intensify its engagement. The intensive air force bombing campaign is also understood to be part of the preparation to allow for a ground incursion, by targeting Hamas’s preparations.
• Biden’s warning is being interpreted as a direct threat to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that if Iran’s Lebanese proxy attempts to intervene in the fighting, it will be met with the might of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group recently moved to the Eastern Mediterranean along with a bolstered US fighter aircraft presence.
• Israeli commentators have interpreted Biden’s backing as the most significant support a US president has ever given Israel.
• In adding that “this is not about party or politics; this is about the security of our world, the security of the United States of America,” Biden underscored that Israel’s security is intertwined with that of the free world.
• Biden also confirmed he had spoken yesterday with the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy to discuss “coordinat[ing] our united response”.
• Similarly, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told Sky News that “we stand in solidarity with Israel and the people of Israel in the face of these barbaric acts of terrorism”.
• Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, has also indicated that the US is in negotiations to try to create a safe passage for Gaza’s civilians to leave the Strip.

Looking ahead: As part of the pressure tactic on Hamas, Israel has temporarily blocked all supplies into Gaza.

• According to sources inside Gaza, their power plant only has enough fuel for another 10-12 hours. The main Shifa hospital in Gaza City has enough diesel to power generators for another four days.
• The bombing campaign is seen to be a precursor to a ground operation, that will further target Hamas and possibly include attempts to free the hostages.
• On the Israeli internal political front, negotiations are ongoing to bring Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party into the government.