What’s happened: Israel’s small war cabinet once more convened on Sunday night in response to pressure from the mediators to prevent the collapse of the talks in Doha. 

• The meeting addressed Hamas’s demand for an Israeli withdrawal from southern Gaza and the plan to build a humanitarian compound in Rafah. 
• The key issue remains the extent of the IDF withdrawal, specifically whether they can retain the Morag Corridor.
• During the meeting, the IDF presented an anticipated timetable for the construction of the “humanitarian city” in Rafah, to which Israel wants to move 600,000 residents of Gaza. The IDF estimates that the construction will take several months at least, and possibly up to a year. The prime minister reportedly responded that this timeframe was  not good enough and needed to be significantly shortened. 
• Over the weekend, the IDF said that the Israeli Air Force struck more than 150 targets throughout the Gaza Strip, “including terrorists, booby-trapped structures, weapons storage facilities, anti-tank missile and sniping posts and additional terrorist infrastructure sites.”
• In the northern Gaza Strip, IDF troops continue to operate in the area of Beit Hanoun, eliminating terrorists and dismantling terrorist infrastructure sites, weapons, and underground infrastructure. 
• Based on intelligence, over the last two weeks the IDF have continued to target  Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commanders. The IDF released  names of several commanders, including those involved in weapons production, that were eliminated.     
• Also on Sunday, a strike near a water distribution point reportedly killed ten people including several children. The IDF referred to the accident as a “technical malfunction.” The IDF admitted it had erred while targeting an operative from the PIJ.

Context: The weekend did not bring with it the long-awaited breakthrough in hostage deal negotiations in Doha. 

• While talks have not (yet) collapsed, a hope remains that a deal can be reached, the optimism of last week appears to be dissipating.
• Israel argues that Hamas has rejected the latest Qatari offer, whilst Arab sources blame the deadlock on Israel’s demand that the IDF remain in large parts of the Gaza Strip even during the ceasefire. 
• As a result Trump’s envoy Witkoff has not yet travelled to Qatar.
• Within the Israeli leadership, the military is signalling that the risks inherent in the agreement can be taken in order to make progress on getting the hostages released.
• More broadly, the security establishment believes the war in its current form has run its course, whist Netanyahu’s position suggests that he intends to leave the option open to renew the fighting.   
• Proponents of the plan for the “humanitarian city” claim its establishment would be a first chance for a non-Hamas entity to take control of the area. The plan has been heavily criticised by former Prime Minister Olmert, who said it would be a “concentration camp” and that forced movement of the population would constitute ethnic cleansing. 
• Meanwhile, Ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich demanded guarantees from the prime minister that the fighting would be resumed after the first stage of the deal. Netanyahu said that any promise of the kind would derail the negotiations. 
• Similar to earlier ceasefires, Netanyahu has a majority in the cabinet and in the security cabinet to approve the agreement when and if it is reached, but the scope of the deal that will be presented to the ministers remains unclear.  
• The working assumption is that Smotrich and Ben Gvir might quit the government over a deal, but they would not bring it down by voting in favour of a motion to dissolve the Knesset.  
• The continued air strikes in Bet Hanoun highlight the complexity of the ongoing war, where five soldiers were killed last week in an area held by the IDF since November 2023 and which is located fewer than 2.5 km from the town of Sderot. Despite the IDF presence above ground, and the evacuation of the civilian population last year, IDF intelligence estimates that 60-80 fighters remain in the underground tunnels network.      
• Some analysts have interpreted the intensity of these recent strikes as signalling that Operation Gideon’s Chariots is nearing to an end. It was initially designed to pressure Hamas  to bring about a hostage release. This pressure included degrading Hamas’s military capabilities, targeting its leaders, taking control of more territory and by undermining Hamas’s governance while agitating Gaza’s citizens against it. 

Looking ahead: On Sunday night, President Trump repeated that talks about Gaza are ongoing and expressed his hope that the issue would be concluded in the coming week.

• Israel’s Foreign Minister Saar is visiting Brussels today and meeting with various representatives of the European Union. In parallel, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani is also expected to be in Brussels. 
• On Tuesday the EU is due to discuss a proposal to remove Israel from the EU-Israel Association Agreement, however for this to pass the vote must be unanimous, which is highly unlikely. Saar is expected to highlight the increased supply of aid and fuel to counter allegations of starvation in Gaza.   
• A ministerial committee will convene on Monday afternoon to consider the removal of Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara. 
• In parallel, the trial of Prime Minister Netanyahu has resumed. The State Attorney’s Office representatives will continue today their cross-examination and will focus on Case 1,000 involving gifts received by the Netanyahu family.

What’s happened: Israel faces threats across multiple fronts with another soldier killed in Gaza, another Houthi missile intercepted, and the stabbing of a soldier in the West Bank, as well as continued efforts to reach a hostage deal.

• First Sgt. (res) Avraham Azulai, a 25-year-old resident of Yitzhar, was killed in action yesterday in the Gaza Strip. He served in the Southern Command’s engineering unit and was killed during an attempted abduction in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. An initial investigation found that terrorists emerged from a tunnel shaft and attacked IDF troops who were operating in the sector. They tried to abduct Azulai, who was operating a bulldozer. He fought with them and they fatally shot him. Security forces on the scene opened fire on the Hamas operatives, hit some of them and thwarted the attempted abduction. 
• A Houthi missile was intercepted early Thursday morning with air raid sirens triggered in the area of Jerusalem, parts of the south, the greater Tel Aviv area and coastal area. No one was injured.
• A soldier was stabbed during an operation in the Jenin area. The rest of the troops opened fire and eliminated the assailant. The moderately injured soldier was sent to a hospital.

Context: Despite some degree of optimism, there has not yet been a breakthrough in the hostage talks. The latest optimism is based on reports that the remaining gaps are being closed.

• The major outstanding issue is understood to be the deployment of IDF troops specifically relating to the Morag Corridor. Officials on the negotiating team told Channel 13 News that Israel would agree to alter its troop deployment on the Morag Corridor and had made “substantial progress on the way to a deal.”
• The Morag Corridor is a 12km paved road – in some places 1.5km wide – which was only established three months ago and separates the Rafah border area from the city of Khan Yunis. The government sees the corridor’s importance as allowing for the establishment of a “humanitarian city” for refugees that would be beyond the jurisdiction of Hamas. For Hamas it is essential to regain full control over southern Gaza.
• One option for resolving the disagreement could include a redeployment that is larger than previously offered, but which would be carried out gradually, dependent on progress in the negotiations to end the war. 
• On another issue, Israel has reportedly agreed in principle that Qatar among other states would start to provide resources and funds to rebuild the Gaza Strip, possibly even during the ceasefire. Hamas has demanded this as a part of the guarantees that the intention to end the war is serious.
• Israel hopes that other Arab states will be involved in order to dilute Qatar’s influence. However, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states will invest before Israel declares the war over.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is still in Washington, whilst also engaged in maintaining his government. He is facing pressure from the right wing to oppose the proposed redeployments and calls to end the war. The ultra-Orthodox coalition partners meanwhile have threatened to leave the government over a bill for ultra-Orthodox males to serve in the military which includes personal sanctions against those who refuse. 

Looking ahead: Netanyahu might meet with Trump for a third time before his scheduled departure from Washington on Thursday evening. 

• President Trump has repeated that he is optimistic there will be a deal “this week or next.”

It is well documented that Hamas steals international aid entering Gaza through pre-existing NGO and aid channels, then sell it to their people at vastly inflated prices. This ‘tax’ is an essential source of revenue for Hamas and enables them to continue to pay their fighters and those most loyal to the regime, thus prolonging the war. 

During the ceasefire, over 300,000 tonnes of food and aid entered Gaza, calculated enough to comfortably sustain the whole population until September 2025. Following the breakdown of the ceasefire in March, Israel prevented any new aid to enter, to cut off this source of funding to Hamas. This action was used by the terrorist group to claim a famine in the territory, despite the warehouses of food stocks available.

Following pressure from the international community, Israel agreed for aid to flow back into the territory, on the condition that systems were put in place to prevent Hamas theft and in adherence to international humanitarian law, the food was free for the people who needed it. 

When existing aid organisations were unable to comply, Israel and the USA established a new not-for-profit, the GHF, to establish the teams and mechanisms to achieve these objectives.  Recently, 130 charities and aid organisations penned a letter calling for the end of the GHF.  It has been reported that as part of the ongoing ceasefire negotiations, one Hamas condition is to return to the old aid delivery system, that profited them well in the past.

On Wednesday July 2, 2025, the Executive Chairman of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, Rev. Dr. Johnnie Moore gave the following statements in an interview:

• GHF has one job to do, and it’s to deliver free food to the people of Gaza. “We are not a political organisation. We have no other agenda”.
• GHF mission is to deliver as much food as possible. “Tens of thousands of boxes of food are delivered to Gaza every day, and now even twice a day in a single distribution”.
• GHF is a private US charity, so it doesn’t need to disclose its donors, “because we are a democracy”.
• “The real heroes of the operation are the local Gazan aid workers who work every single day to deliver food to the people.”
• “12 of which were mercilessly brutally murdered by Hamas in a targeted operation in the Gaza Strip, and not only did they murder these 12 aid workers, but they piled them in front of the hospital along with the injured and refused to allow them to even get medical care”.
• “There is an unbelievable effort around the world to try to shut down our operation. We will not be shut down”.
• GHF don’t exist to replace the UN aid but to subsidise, to collaborate with other aid organisations on problem-solving.
• There is a disinformation/misinformation campaign around GHF work. Hundred precent of the casualties attributed to GHF.
• “I am here in Brussels to correct some of the disinformation/misinformation around our efforts”.
• “I am here to be the voice of our aid workers who pay the ultimate price”.
• “I am here to be a bridge between the US and the European Union because GHF is a direct mandate of the President of the United States”.
• President Trump said that Hamas is treating the people of Gaza very badly by stealing their aid, and he said the US will do something about it.
• GHF is operating in a deadly environment.
• “This is an active war in one of the most condensed areas in the world and the most complex humanitarian environment in the world, we are operating in”.
• UNRWA failed to fulfil its mandate. One of the challenges of GHF, and plenty of countries in the European Union, not only the US, is collaborating with UNRWA.
• UNRWA never took seriously the concern of having Hamas infiltration in its operation.
• The curriculum of the schools of UNRWA, which is a UN charity, has appalling content which only contributes to hate in the Gaza Strip.
• The impetus of the UN against GHF (“which we think is slowly breaking”) is that aid would be distributed to Gaza only with UNRWA.
• The seeds of the plan go back to the Biden administration.
• Replying to the question: ‘Is there a mass hunger in the Gaza Strip?  And there are videos on social media of fully functioning restaurants in Gaza. How is Hamas able to coordinate this?”
• “There is mass food insecurity in Gaza, and in certain parts of the Gaza Strip, Hamas is still able to control food”.
• Addressing the dispute with the Swiss authorities: “As an American-led initiative, it’s important to have offices in other countries, like Switzerland”.
• “My Arab friends know the cost of religious extremism”.
• “I think this is a moment of conflict in an era of peace. The truth will prevail, and we are going to see a region which will become a place of peace”.
• “I have known President Trump for more than 14 years. No leader in the world is more capable of delivering peace than Trump, and our Arab Friends recognize it”.

What’s happened: Following yesterday’s statements from the Trump Administration that Israel had accepted its latest ceasefire proposal, reports in Arab media indicate that Hamas is positively inclined to the proposal as well, and will make a formal response by Friday. 

• The Saudi news outlet Asharq reports that Hamas is satisfied with the guarantees in the current proposal that the ceasefire would lead to an end to the war. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, speaking in Estonia,  told reporters “there are some positive signs” idicating that an agreement was imminent.
• On the ground, Sgt. Yaniv Michalovich, 19, from Rehovot, was killed in combat yesterday in the Gaza Strip. Two other soldiers sustained serious injuries in the same incident.
• The IDF says that it killed the two Hamas militants who carried out an attack on an Israeli APC last week. The Hamas operatives were killed in a drone strike. The attacks they carried out last week killed seven soldiers from the 605th Combat Engineering Battalion.
• Hamas launched two rockets from Gaza to Sderot yesterday. In the evening following the rocket launch, the IDF issued an evacuation order for the neighbourhood from which the rockets were launched. As of this morning, it was engaged in an extensive operation there against the terror cell that launched the rockets.
• Investigations into Qatari influence in the Prime Minister’s Office expanded yesterday with the questioning under caution of Major General (res.) Yoav Mordechai, who has held a number of senior roles and, since retiring from service, has been employed by the Israeli firm Novard Group, which has reportedly represented Israeli defence contractors in their dealings with Qatar. According to the allegations under investigation, Novard Group was involved in transferring payments to Jonatan Urich, the senior adviser to the Prime Minister at the centre of the suspected influence ring.

Context: The full details of the latest deal remain unclear. With Prime Minister Netanyahu meeting President Trump next week in Washington it is also unclear the sequencing of when the Israeli cabinet will vote to approve a deal. 

• Details of the proposed ceasefire reported this morning by The New York Times suggest some differences from earlier reports. In the new version, ten living hostages and eighteen bodies would be released on five different occasions during the 60 days of the ceasefire. Moreover, unlike in the previous ceasefire, there would be no handover “ceremonies.” These staged spectacles provoked much anger and anguish in Israel, in particular regarding the Red Cross’s collaboration with them.
• Hamas is currently holding 50 Israeli hostages, of whom 20 are believed to be alive. Hamas’ apparent agreement to the new proposal, still unconfirmed, is conditioned on assurances that the ceasefire period will see negotiations to end the war permanently, the only condition under which the terror organisation will agree to release the remaining hostages it will still be holding at the end of the 60 days of the ceasefire.
• Officially and publicly, Israel is still committed to both of its stated war goals: liberating the hostages and ending Hamas rule in Gaza. Speaking to soldiers in Rafah yesterday, Defence Minister Yisrael Katz said, “Getting the hostages and making sure Hamas isn’t here. We won’t let go of that objective. Hamas has not changed.”
• National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called on Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to meet him urgently to coordinate opposition to the ceasefire deal. Both far-right ministers have in the past opposed any proposals that leave Hamas standing in any form. During the previous ceasefire in January, Ben Gvir resigned from the Government, only to rejoin when fighting started again in March.
• In previous rounds, the government had enough votes to approve deals without the hard right factions. Nevertheless, leading figures in the parliamentary opposition made public declarations of support for the ceasefire and pledged to provide the Government with a “safety net” in the Knesset for it to pursue the release of hostages even in the face of far-right defections inside the coalition. Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid said that “compared to Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s 13 votes, you have my 23 votes for a safety net for a hostage deal. They all need to be brought back home now.” 
• The Democrats Chairman and Maj. Gen. (res.) Yair Golan said, “The pair of failed Kahanists, who have formed a blocking majority against getting the hostages back, are un-Zionist and unworthy of sitting at the cabinet table. And the person who has kept them there is unfit to lead Israel for even a single day longer.” And Benny Gantz, leader of the National Unity Party, posted on social media: “No bloc on earth will stop the return of the hostages. Netanyahu, petty politics won’t be an obstacle to historic steps. You have a large majority to bring back the hostages.”

Looking ahead: Netanyahu is due to arrive in Washington on Sunday, with expectations that a ceasefire agreement, if possible, it to be agreed upon before his arrival. In Washington, he is expected to discuss with Trump a number of other regional initiatives that a ceasefire, as well as the successful war in Iran earlier this month, will have made possible.

• According to a detailed report in Israel Hayom, a US-brokered normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia is back on the agenda. Efforts to bring about a full diplomatic normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel were at a mature state before the October 7 attack, and were probably a principal reason for the attack, but since the war began the Saudis have been less interested in pursuing a peace deal with Israel. The coordinated US and Israeli attack on Iran has, according to the report, convinced the Saudis of the importance of formalising their relationship with Israel. 
• A ceasefire that would lead to an actual end to the war could be an opening for Saudi and Emirati investment in Gaza’s reconstruction – and an opportunity to shut out the Qataris, strategic rivals of the Saudis and Emiratis and until October 7 the main financial backers of Gaza’s Hamas rulers. The paper also reports for the first time that Saudi forces were directly involved in intercepting Iranian drones launched at Israel in the recent war.
• Syrian state media, meanwhile, were keen to dampen enthusiasm on a potential peace deal with Israel yesterday. A report on the state TV channel citing an unnamed senior official described such talk as “premature.” The same report reiterated the key Syrian demand of an Israeli withdrawal from lands occupied in recent months beyond the 1974 disengagement lines. Notably, there was, once more, no demand for an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, which Israel conquered in the Six-Day War in 1967.