In this episode, Richard Pater speaks with Dr Simon Waldman about Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s grip on power, the erosion of Turkish democracy and Turkey’s neo-Ottoman ambitions. Waldman examines antisemitism in Turkish society, Ankara’s support for Hamas and its growing influence in Syria. He also assesses Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 programme, its naval ambitions in the eastern Mediterranean and the prospects for repairing relations with Israel.
Dr Simon Waldman teaches in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London. His research focuses on Turkish history and politics, international diplomacy in the Middle East, state-building and leadership, and the Arab Israeli conflict. He is the author of Anglo-American Diplomacy and the Palestinian Refugee Problem and co-author of The New Turkey and Its Discontents.
Transcript
(This transcript has been generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:07:09 – 00:00:36:11
Richard Pater
Welcome to the BICOM’s Podcast. I’m Richard Pater, the director of BICOM, and today is Thursday the 27th of August. Today’s episode focuses on Turkey, its Neo-Ottoman ambitions, and its relations with Israel. My guest is Dr Simon Waldman, a lecturer in defence studies department at King’s College London. His research focuses on international diplomacy in the Middle East, state building leadership, and with a specific focus on Turkish history and politics, as well as the Arab Israeli conflict.
00:00:36:13 – 00:00:48:05
Richard Pater
He is the author of a couple of books, as well as numerous academic articles, as well as appearing as a commentator across several international media outlets. Doctor Simon, thank you very much indeed for joining me.
00:00:48:11 – 00:00:49:16
Simon Waldman
Thank you for having me.
00:00:49:21 – 00:01:02:13
Richard Pater
Perhaps we can start and we can. You can tell us a little about the dynamics within current domestic politics in Turkey and, and kind of assess the popularity of Erdogan.
00:01:02:15 – 00:01:32:21
Simon Waldman
Yes. So, Richard type Erdogan is perhaps the most important figure in Turkish politics since the principal state builder and founder of the republic, Mr. Erdogan, has been in power since 2023. His party has been in power since 2000 to 2000. I said 2023. I mean, 2003. And his party has been in power since 2002. He had one year of a ban of politics still left for him to complete before he actually entered.
00:01:32:22 – 00:01:51:11
Simon Waldman
But he was he was behind the scenes pulling the strings there. So, we can say from 2000 and 201 has been in power in Turkey, first as prime minister, when that was the most important position, and now as president when that’s the most important position. Now, the question is not necessarily his declining popularity because he still has that.
00:01:51:11 – 00:02:30:22
Simon Waldman
He has a very hard-core support of around one third of the of the electorate, and that sometimes goes into the 50% region, depending on the on the politics of the day and the nature of campaigning and things like that. But his term is going to end in 2028. And according to the Constitution, which was constructed under his rule and amendments which were made after the attempted military coup in 2016, he cannot have another term after 2028 unless he calls for snap elections just before them, and then he can have another four years in in power.
00:02:30:23 – 00:03:02:03
Simon Waldman
Now the reality is, only one wants to be in power for as long as possible, for as long as time will allow him, as long as his health would allow him. So right now, the question, if everyone’s mind is if there’s not going to be elections in 2028, in May 2028, when exactly is it going to be held, and will there be additional constitutional changes made to allow him to have an additional term, maybe additional a couple of terms in office, in power, and how he would go around trying to trying to fix that.
00:03:02:05 – 00:03:09:07
Richard Pater
Just to come back on something. You mentioned that he was banned at the beginning. I don’t remember that context. What was what was the background to that?
00:03:09:08 – 00:03:33:15
Simon Waldman
So, when one was a young mayor of, of Istanbul and he was under the, the Welfare Party, which was also an Islamic party as well, he read aloud a poem which the authorities which at the time was very much under the under the guidance of the military, considered it to be anti-sexual and the challenge on the secular nature of the state.
00:03:33:15 – 00:03:53:06
Simon Waldman
And he was slung in jail and given a temporary ban from politics, and he had to serve out that time before he could enter the political fray. They didn’t stop him, of course, from actually establishing a new political party, but he couldn’t actually hold office until a little bit later. So, in 2002, that’s when the AKP come into power.
00:03:53:06 – 00:03:59:04
Simon Waldman
And he certainly there, you know, but not on an official capacity until 2003.
00:03:59:07 – 00:04:19:19
Richard Pater
Well, that’s a very useful segue. I wonder if you could kind of categorize that the culture clash between the secularism of the state and the army, and the idea that the Muslim, the Islamic ideology, the urge again represents. And again, if you can assess kind of the power struggle and the popularity that both sides hold at the moment.
00:04:19:22 – 00:04:52:24
Simon Waldman
Yes. So, in terms of looking at the power of the military in Turkey, we’ve got to think about that in past tense that doesn’t really exist anymore. But through the early periods of the Turkish Republic, right into the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and arguably into the into the mid 2000, 20 tens as well, the military held a considerable amount of power, and in general, generally speaking, it considered itself to be the guardians of the secular nature of the Turkish Republic and indeed the circular constitution.
00:04:53:00 – 00:05:14:17
Simon Waldman
Now, when Turkey was established in 1923. This was after the Ottoman Empire. The Ottoman Empire was based on Sharia and the head of state. The head of the of the empire was the caliph. Now, when Kamal Ataturk came along and he was very secular, staunchly secular and Western oriented in his outlook, he said, enough of that.
00:05:14:17 – 00:05:43:09
Simon Waldman
That’s not that’s not going to happen. In fact, he took it to such an extreme where he wanted to banish all vestiges of religion in public life, not unlike France, but not exactly the same. But if you want to bring an example, think. Think about France. And that can. That’s quite helpful, even though not exact. And this, of course, was to the to the chagrin of many within Turkey, and some did not believe that they should.
00:05:43:10 – 00:06:06:08
Simon Waldman
This should be a secular republic at all, and they were very much pushed to the to the margins of society. And it is really with the militia movements, the kind of Islamist nationalists which emerge all from the from the 1960s but really came into the forge in the late 1980s and actually had power in the 1990s through the Welfare Party.
00:06:06:09 – 00:06:35:17
Simon Waldman
Was there an organized opposition to the secular nature of the state and Welfare Party was led by a gentleman called in urban, and one of his disciples was a young, rigid type one. So that’s kind of is the dynamic. Now, the military always wanted to interfere when politics was not serving the national interest, and especially when it was challenging the second in nature of the state.
00:06:35:18 – 00:07:01:18
Simon Waldman
So, there were military interventions in 1960, 1971, again in 1980, a very tough military coup, for the most part in 1980, was against far leftist elements. And again in 1997, that’s when that welfare party by urban was ousted by the military, and people such as Erdogan and Abdullah Gül and other figures never forgot that. And they were always looking over their shoulders towards the military.
00:07:01:19 – 00:07:35:16
Simon Waldman
What is the military going to do? Is there going to be any kind of intervention? And very much that first, second and even third terms of the AKP, the Justice and Development Party. The party of Erdogan was also about loosening the power of the military on society, because they kept on fearing that if they’d step in the wrong direction, the military might try and ouster them, especially if there were members of the public who feared that there was going to be an increase in Islamic of society under the AKP.
00:07:35:16 – 00:08:08:17
Simon Waldman
And one, when you this this really comes to a head around 2016, with the attempted military coup, there was an attempt to oust one and his Justice and Development Party. That proved unsuccessful. And since then, the military, which was already being challenged by different court cases alleging conspiracies, was really pacified. So now we can’t really think about the military as being a political force anymore within Turkey.
00:08:08:17 – 00:08:28:09
Richard Pater
And just in terms of the kind of the current regime, how would you assess overall the strength of the facets of Turkish democracy, free press, a functioning opposition, other aspects of that we would look to in the West as kind of as the barometers of democracy.
00:08:28:11 – 00:08:54:02
Simon Waldman
So, it doesn’t really exist. I think, to Turkish democracy and to talk about it, it’s more of an aspiration than anything tangible. But just to go back a little bit, the idea that Turkey ever was a democracy, I would say it was a kind of a Western construct. It was always a in a democratization process. But there are very few periods of free and fair open elections.
00:08:54:08 – 00:09:23:08
Simon Waldman
You can you can point to some of them during the early 1950s, again, perhaps into the late 1980s. But the military was always looming over the process. And our military involved in political affairs to such an extent is not a true democracy. But there was a kind of a period towards the late 1990s, two around 2002, when the AKP did come into power, where there were European oriented reforms where one could say, okay, Turkey is now on the path to democracy.
00:09:23:08 – 00:10:01:07
Simon Waldman
And that was the hope and promise of the AKP. And not only was there are all these different types of European oriented reforms, but here it is, a political party rooted in political Islam that may perhaps have a democratic orientation. So that’s kind of the background to it. But if you look at it now, I will say that, oh, since that attempted military coup, in fact, if I’m going to be a bit cynical, I will say a little bit earlier, 2013 with the Gezi Park protests, which there were kind of a popular uprising against Urdu one because there was an attempt to destroy one of the last public squares in the in the centre of
00:10:01:07 – 00:10:29:02
Simon Waldman
the city without any consultation and the way that the so many of the population were just brushed aside. They were called riff raff, which looters, vandals, that kind of thing was just showed that this is a prime minister. At the time, he wasn’t president. This is a prime minister. This was a political party that was not acting for all of the Turkish citizens, but just those who claim are their supporters.
00:10:29:03 – 00:11:04:05
Simon Waldman
And once you have that situation, you have a lot of difficulties ahead. And indeed, through different mechanisms, the courts were filled with sycophants of Erdogan and his party. And also, the police, increasingly, who had a nationalist outlook, or those who were sympathetic, not necessarily for Erdogan’s party, but its affiliate party, the. And then you see, once you have the institutions of state which are co-opted, you have any kind of possibility of a true democracy, just get further and further away.
00:11:04:06 – 00:11:38:17
Simon Waldman
And then that’s enshrined really very much in the presidency, which has happened now, where through constitutional changes that were enacted after that attempted military coup, you have really governments, government ministers being directly appointed by the president. You have the judiciary very much influenced by the president. And really, all of those things that you mentioned about checks and balances just completely eroded to the point where it’s really difficult to see how the democratic process will be reversed.
00:11:38:18 – 00:12:06:20
Simon Waldman
And just on another point, what we also saw. Oh, as long as nearly ten years ago. So, the writing has been in the cards. There is in the southeast of the country, mayors or local officials who are elected in local elections, being removed by the government and replaced by government appointees under this kind of terrorism charges. Slowly, slowly, that kind of crept in not just in the largely Kurdish southeast, but also into the major cities.
00:12:06:20 – 00:12:30:00
Simon Waldman
And in recently, we’ve seen that in Istanbul, where the government had kind of intervened and said, well, this, this, this, this Istanbul mayor was, was a fraud. He, he’s he didn’t get in there through four legal means. We’ll have to remove him, you know, charge him and oh, in the meantime, we’ll put our own kind of appointees in, in different local councils.
00:12:30:00 – 00:12:38:07
Simon Waldman
And that’s really where we are now. So, if there are any future elections, they will probably be free. But they’re certainly unfair.
00:12:38:08 – 00:12:57:09
Richard Pater
I mean, one of the issues that kind of captures the attention here in Israel is the kind of anti-Semitic rhetoric from some of the leaders. How widespread is that of oath feelings, both anti-Israel and anti-Semitic discourse in, in Turkish society today.
00:12:57:11 – 00:13:24:07
Simon Waldman
So, it’s so widespread. I stopped following it. It became too repetitive. It just it’s just all pervasive. It’s just there everywhere. So, whether you want to look at anti-Semitism or if you want to separate anti-Zionism from anti-Semitism, that’s fine. You can find lots of it anywhere. And in terms of anti-Semitism, it’s very much of the kind of conspiratorial type and the origins of that goes back.
00:13:24:08 – 00:13:44:14
Simon Waldman
Oh, oh, we can, we can you can trace the origins right, right into the, into the 1930s, into kind of the regions of Turkey, which is in Europe, which is called Thrace. And in 1934 there were three pogroms. So, a pogrom in these kinds of places where the Jewish communities there were targeted by, by, quote, unquote, the mob.
00:13:44:18 – 00:14:14:13
Simon Waldman
And part of the influence of this was from anti-Semitic articles that were being written in newspapers by intellectuals, sometimes inspired by Nazi Germany. And you can see all the different kind of cases of violence or legislation that’s against Jews. And there’s another 1 in 1942, a kind of a special tax against non-Muslim minorities. There’s Semitic behind the scenes, which is which is ideological.
00:14:14:13 – 00:14:36:17
Simon Waldman
If you want to fast forward a bit. And we kind of mentioned before that kind of the Islamist movements within Turkey itself and those from which Urdu one emerged from. There is a special type of anti-Semitism within those circles. It’s very conspiratorial, along the lines of why is Turkey today not the great power that it should be? Right?
00:14:36:18 – 00:15:05:03
Simon Waldman
And is there some kind of international conspiracy against Turkey? What is that international conspiracy? Oh yeah, it’s world international Zionism and its World International Zionism, which is conspiring to keep Turkey down and by extension, working against the forces of Islam and the Turkish Republic, which is the main soldiers to defend Islam. And that is very much present into the 1980s, 1990s.
00:15:05:04 – 00:15:47:20
Simon Waldman
And even when the AKP come into power, when Erdmann comes into power in the in the in the 2000, just as the international community is looking at Turkey as potentially being a model democracy for Middle Eastern countries to follow a loyal ally in the war against terror. You’re seeing in mainstream books, short book bookstores across Turkey works like The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, Mein Kampf in some cases The International Jew by reformed being published, being sold and being run away best sellers, and this is without the academic and scholarly introduction in the beginning to contextualize it.
00:15:47:20 – 00:16:12:14
Simon Waldman
This is being sold as is. You can look in different newspapers both then and today, and you’ll find different anti-Semitic conspiracies. So, for example, I remember exactly what it was last year or two years. Sometimes my, my, my dates leave me. There was a kind of a case in the United States where there was kind of an underground cellar that was that was built by a religious Jewish group.
00:16:12:14 – 00:16:53:11
Simon Waldman
I think they were bypassing planning permission. But oh, in the Turkish press, this was seen in this example of a secret, ritualistic sort of sort of activities taking place. And then the kind of the context July. It was kind of contextualized by pointing to different accusations of Jewish ritual murder. So that’s there and that’s the anti-Semitism. You don’t even you don’t even want to get them to start on the on the anti-Zionism and the anti-Israel aspects, because you just see that on a daily basis, where Israel is seen as the cause, the source of all the world’s ills.
00:16:53:17 – 00:17:21:07
Simon Waldman
And that’s really quite plain, plain to see nearly every time that something happens, that’s, that’s highlighting. And just to highlight the point again, if you if you don’t mind me saying in 2023 there was a devastating a terrible earthquake in the southeast of Turkey, and Israel sent some rescue operatives. One of them was Zaka, which collects body parts.
00:17:21:08 – 00:17:42:00
Simon Waldman
But it’s also really quite good at finding stuff and helping people, especially in disaster areas. And in the southeast of Turkey in an area called Hatay, is a very small Jewish community, which is non-existent anymore. The earthquake really spelt the end of it. There was only a handful of Jews left, and one of the things that were found were the Torah scrolls.
00:17:42:01 – 00:18:09:18
Simon Waldman
A local volunteer gave the Torah scrolls to Zaka, and I think Zaka took it back to Israel. But what that did was start off the increasingly the Islamic press, but then the Turkish press itself, to say that Israel did not come to Turkey to help, it came to steal. And there was just kind of highlighted. There’s another example of, of, of, of the terrible thing that Israel does.
00:18:09:19 – 00:18:16:10
Simon Waldman
But what was completely ignored was the people that Israel helped saved during that, during the devastating earthquake.
00:18:16:11 – 00:18:43:01
Richard Pater
And beyond kind of rhetoric in terms of kind of government policy, there’s again, great concern here in Israel that Istanbul itself harbours Hamas terrorists, that the cells that operate in the West Bank are led by Hamas cells operating inside, inside Turkey. How does one reconcile that, which we still have to bear in mind? This is still a member of NATO, kind of how do they kind of present that juxtaposition to themselves?
00:18:43:02 – 00:19:15:00
Simon Waldman
Well, they don’t, but primarily through one denial, but also by saying that having a kind of a link, a kind of a discussion channel with Hamas, Turkey is then able to be a mediator, a bridge, a go between, between Western powers and, and indeed Israel and Hamas. In reality, it’s something it’s something different. And I think the way to kind of explain it from the perspective of Ankara is that it’s ideological.
00:19:15:02 – 00:19:49:16
Simon Waldman
There is a deep sympathy to Hamas rooted within the ruling apparatus and in many respects, from the perspective of Erdogan, hosting Hamas is almost the least it can do. Because if you look at the rhetoric by different political parties, different civil society groups, Herder one is a moderate when it comes to Israel. He may sound extreme, but if you hear the rhetoric that is being said in demonstrations, it is the one is not doing enough.
00:19:49:18 – 00:20:18:13
Simon Waldman
Why do you and it’s kind of it’s almost potentially you know, we there’s that occasions and then you know who uses Erdogan for campaigning purposes. But you know I say that Alexis is going to be in 2028. You can bet that Israel will come up in these elections whenever they’re going to happen, whether it’s in 2028, 2027, along the lines of one has not done enough to fight Israel on the international stage.
00:20:18:13 – 00:20:24:12
Simon Waldman
So, hosting Hamas and calling them freedom fighters, that’s from his perspective, the least that he can do.
00:20:24:13 – 00:20:37:23
Richard Pater
Can we focus now on Turkish foreign policy? First of all, is it fair to categorize it as neo-Ottoman? And then how does that kind of reflect itself in kind of in terms of their regional ambitions?
00:20:37:24 – 00:21:09:11
Simon Waldman
So, I’ve used the term in the atom and myself, and the reason why I’m quite comfortable using it is, well, first of all, we have to understand it’s a blanket term. It’s not necessarily something that you can say, oh, the Ottomans did this in 1451 or 1453, and now they’re doing it again. It’s not using the Ottoman Empire as a model, but what it is, it’s saying that Turkey has an increased influence in the region and that it legitimizes it by pointing to the Ottoman Empire.
00:21:09:11 – 00:21:40:20
Simon Waldman
And that’s certainly the case. So why is it that Turkey is interested in Jerusalem, and why does it care about Jerusalem? And sometimes political elites will then justify it based on the Ottoman Empire. And if that’s what it’s doing is neo-Ottoman. But I think there’s a kind of another way in which to look at it. And so, I had the pleasure of, oh, it’s been it’s been quite it’s been years now, but it was quite a while ago I had the pleasure of visiting Iraqi Kurdistan.
00:21:40:20 – 00:22:08:01
Simon Waldman
And I visited Erbil, which is the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, the next day, the Turkish hotel. And when I woke up in the morning, I went and I had my breakfast and a cup of tea, and the tea was with a Turkish branded manufacturer. Then after that, I met a friend of mine in a Turkish coffee shop, and I went through a Turkish mall, and the mall was full of Turkish brand products.
00:22:08:02 – 00:22:35:23
Simon Waldman
And outside on the streets I saw Turkish construction companies. Now, if we if we were talking, if I said instead of Turkey, I said America would call that neocolonialism. And seeing that Turkey was the former colonial power, I don’t see why we shouldn’t call that neo-Ottoman, because it is very much the same thing. And the idea and I can extend this, this, this perspective because, you know, there were schools which were following the Turkish curriculum and owned Turkish owned as well as universities as well.
00:22:35:23 – 00:22:58:20
Simon Waldman
So, I think when I refer to neo, that’s what primarily I mean, now the problem with the term is, is how I, how I refer to it is not how someone else might. So, it’s worth bearing that in mind. And, and when I when I say that about Iraqi Kurdistan, you can say the same thing about Afrin and Syria and the same thing about Northern Cyprus.
00:22:58:21 – 00:23:07:14
Simon Waldman
So, it is about projecting its influence in in places which used to be Ottoman possessions.
00:23:07:16 – 00:23:32:22
Richard Pater
I wanted to come on to Syria because this is obviously where there is the director theatre of concern currently between Israel and Turkey. We saw the operation now just a couple of weeks ago, where Israel struck a base in in northern Syria, close to the southern Turkish border, as a as a as a message to Turkey, don’t how would you kind of assess their ambitions in Syria?
00:23:32:22 – 00:23:40:05
Richard Pater
And I mean, do we think that a clash is inevitable between them and Israel over, over that area?
00:23:40:07 – 00:24:04:19
Simon Waldman
So, clashes are inevitable. But it is it is an issue of trust. And when I say trust, I don’t mean trust between Israel and Turkey. That ship sailed a long time ago, you know, that goes back 15, 16 or even 17 years to 2009 and 2010. And the affair. So, so the trust between Israel and Turkey has seriously eroded over time.
00:24:04:19 – 00:24:39:15
Simon Waldman
But there is a trust issue between Israel and the new Syrian authorities, and a trust issue between Turkey and the new Syrian authorities as well. Now, the Israeli one is a little bit more obvious where it’s they don’t know if al-Qaida and the people around him. I have a hidden his name is the gender. And some of the attacks against the Jewish community and against the other whites don’t exactly confidence from the perspective of Turkey is their man, but they don’t know that he will always be there, man.
00:24:39:16 – 00:25:07:18
Simon Waldman
I mean, what the first country that I visited after becoming president was Saudi Arabia, and his visit to Turkey on another a number of occasions, but Saudi Arabia too, and also Qatar and also United Arab Emirates. And he’s very keen to make links with Europe and, and, and the United States as well. And the concern for Turkey is that for how long will they be able to influence him?
00:25:07:18 – 00:25:39:10
Simon Waldman
And if their military prowess is eroded in Syria by Israeli attacks, then what exactly do they have to offer? Because what they are offering our show is not unlike what take you off is in, say, Somalia, rebuilding an airport, rebuilding ports, infrastructure projects, electricity and that kind of thing, but primarily the military as well, and rebuilding the military in its bases and providing arms and all kinds of military goods.
00:25:39:14 – 00:26:08:23
Simon Waldman
Now, if the consequence of that, from Turkey’s perspective is Israeli attacks, then why would Al-Shabaab continue to look to Turkey? And plus, from his perspective, why would he want to be the puppet of a neighbouring country? Surely, he wants to. He wants to have a have a state which he, he and his associates can control. Gone are the times where they want this increased influence over them, as was the case of Iran.
00:26:08:23 – 00:26:31:05
Simon Waldman
And Russia wants to have an independent foreign policy, but an independent foreign policy is then something which is of concern for Turkey, because Syria holds the key also with the Kurdish issue as well. Now in Turkey itself. And this is potentially what could make Urdu unsuccessful when he runs for elections, when he runs for office again, and no doubt he will.
00:26:31:05 – 00:26:55:08
Simon Waldman
And that is he will claim the ability to have solved the Kurdish issue because in 2025, Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers Party, announced the end of the armed struggle and instead seeking the struggle through democratic means. And one of the reasons why he did that was because of the increasing erosion of Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria.
00:26:55:12 – 00:27:24:14
Simon Waldman
Syria has always a northern Syria has always been the key to Kurdish strength inside Turkey. This is a 560-mile border. And the Kurds in in Syria have a similar ideological outlook as those in the southeast of Turkey and the PKK. Now, with autonomy eroding in in northern Syria, it means that there’s a greater chance of reaching some kind of accord with the PKK, which would be lasting.
00:27:24:16 – 00:28:01:20
Simon Waldman
But if the if the Kurds in Syria have increased autonomy and freedom from movements and potentially the PKK are base in which to, to be politically and potentially militarily, militarily, then that could erode the peace process and that could erode potentially the popularity of one and the AKP. So, in this sense, Turkey has a lot riding in Syria, and they don’t necessarily have full confidence that our Qara will deliver without them having a presence there themselves.
00:28:01:21 – 00:28:31:16
Simon Waldman
And don’t forget, by the way, just before I forget, don’t forget that it’s estimated we don’t know entirely. It is estimated that there’s still 20,000 Turkish personnel, security, military still present in Syria. Turkey still possesses 5% of Syrian territory towards the north, so its presence is still there. So, to claim that Israel shouldn’t have a presence in the buffer zone or launch operations is a little rich.
00:28:31:18 – 00:28:53:12
Richard Pater
I mean, one of the other Israeli concerns is, which they’ve had for over a decade, is kind of freedom of activity, action over the skies of Syria that potentially the Turkish Air Force could threaten. That leads me into another area, which is fascinating because of the duality of Turkey and their role or their desire to receive the F-35s.
00:28:53:14 – 00:28:58:10
Richard Pater
Where does that currently stand? You’d think that that deployment is realistic.
00:28:58:13 – 00:29:25:01
Simon Waldman
So that’s an ongoing negotiation about the F-35s. Turkey is it was in the program until it was expelled from the program because it bought Russian S-400 surface to air missiles, which are incompatible with the F-35, even potentially could risk the leaking of some of that important technology of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. So, they’ve come to an impasse, their negotiations ongoing right now.
00:29:25:03 – 00:29:50:15
Simon Waldman
Quite recently, Turkey hired a PR firm to work within its defence ministry to try and lobby the United States to change its mind, to find some kind of way of reversing this. At the moment, Erdogan and President Trump are enjoying a very good relationship. So, there’s well within the executive branch of the United States to get this deal done.
00:29:50:17 – 00:30:21:09
Simon Waldman
And I would predict in all likelihood, it’s going to happen probably in the next 2 or 3 years. And the best that Israel can probably do is delay it rather than stop it. So that is a is a problem that Israel has to has to deal with. And it’s difficult to say what from the perspective of Jerusalem, what it should do, perhaps it should borrow all of its kind of efforts and lobbying and everything it can to be part of the F 47 program, which will probably be active.
00:30:21:09 – 00:30:55:23
Simon Waldman
What in the probably in the early 2030s, when it’ll be active as opposed to as opposed to be ready. And by that time, it can mitigate that potential threat of Turkish parity over Syria and potentially elsewhere as well. But that’s a that’s a difficult ask. The f 47 is really an upgrade of the F-22, the F-22, or it was never something which the United States made available to other countries, even its allies.
00:30:55:23 – 00:31:07:01
Simon Waldman
So that’ll be a difficult undertaking. But I think within the next couple of years, the F-35 program Turkey will find itself back with and it sees its opportunity now with Donald Trump.
00:31:07:02 – 00:31:22:15
Richard Pater
And regarding Turkey’s naval ambitions kind of oversea. And obviously this is where it challenges Israel’s alliance with the Hellenic allies, Greece and Cyprus. What’s Turkey’s agenda there,
00:31:22:17 – 00:31:47:20
Simon Waldman
Sir, there is a kind of a concept, the idea of the kind of the blue, like the idea that you can project its influence in the eastern Mediterranean and or any that it should. It’s also that its rightful place to do so. And I think actually that this is where the more immediate challenge actually lies. And, you know, so the F-35 issue is more theoretical, what can happen in the future.
00:31:47:20 – 00:32:12:15
Simon Waldman
But the reality is that Turkey has a very strong navy. It has in the past showed that it can harass and caused significant trouble to Cyprus and also Greece. And the possibility is real that it can continue that a few miles south towards closer to Israel’s exclusive economic zones, perhaps under the guise of supporting Lebanon or Syria.
00:32:12:17 – 00:32:22:04
Simon Waldman
So that is also potentially a threat, and I think one that Israel should be taking seriously and is, I think, is on the horizon, actually.
00:32:22:06 – 00:32:54:23
Richard Pater
And just one last question. I mean, as opposed to other countries in the in the region, primarily Iran, which is clearly an enemy state towards Israel, Israeli officials are very careful to categorize Turkey as a rival, not an enemy. They, of course, have diplomatic relations, however, strain they are now. We saw in that brief period when Netanyahu lost and there was the government of change, that there was actually a small period of rapprochement, of a visit that I think President Herzog visited, visited Turkey.
00:32:54:24 – 00:33:10:09
Richard Pater
The potential for, for, for trade and tourism is still there. How do you how do you look at the bilateral relationship? Is it can it be retrieved? Could it, could it return to a more positive footing?
00:33:10:11 – 00:33:34:13
Simon Waldman
So, Netanyahu himself has been demonized to such an extent within the Turkish press, the Turkish political landscape that I can’t see it happening under his watch. But, you know, elections in Israel, everyone says it’s the most consequential in history. I don’t know about that. They all seem pretty consequential, but I think in the Turkish relationship very much so.
00:33:34:19 – 00:33:58:19
Simon Waldman
I can’t see how in six months’ time there’ll reversal within the Turkish political climate be some kind of, unless there’s a change within, within personnel, within, within, within Israel itself. So no, I’m not I’m not actually positive about that. If anything, the trajectory could get worse. So yes, Israeli officials are quick to kind of corn turkey a rival state.
00:33:58:21 – 00:34:24:12
Simon Waldman
But even that is a is a is a decline. I mean you mentioned like the of a postmodern. Well, the replacement was originally happening in the early 1990s and into the 1990s. Until the late 1990s, it was a strategic relationship, and I think very much it was strategic. And from becoming a strategic partnership into rival states is really a sad, sad state of affairs.
00:34:24:12 – 00:34:55:09
Simon Waldman
Because to be honest with you, I don’t think there’s any reason for there not to be additional cooperation. But the problem lies within ideology and specifically the ideology of type one and his associates, where they need Israel to be this adversary. They need it. And the reason why they need it is because, according to them, Turkey should be an international power.
00:34:55:11 – 00:35:26:17
Simon Waldman
And it goes back to that anti-Semitic conspiracy that would happen in the in the years before. Well, why is it not? Why is Turkey not an international power of notes? Well, they can blame some terrible economic policies, and they can blame some foreign policy choice choices, which were disastrous. And you can blame Israel. And often what happens is Israel gets blamed for the ills that happened inside Turkey and also its ability and rather inability to project its own power.
00:35:26:19 – 00:35:32:15
Richard Pater
Fascinating. We’ll draw a line there. But thank you so much for your time today. Absolutely brilliant to listen to your analysis.
00:35:32:20 – 00:35:33:23
Simon Waldman
Thank you for having me.