What happened: At least 16 people were injured in a missile strike on southern Tel Aviv in the early hours of Saturday morning.
- The missile fired from Yemen landed in a children’s playground that was empty at the time, with damage caused to surrounding apartments.
- For the second time in three days, millions of Israelis in the centre of the country were woken up by sirens in the middle of the night.
- The military is investigating why Israel’s anti-missile defence systems failed to intercept the missile.
- Yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the attack saying, “Just as we have acted forcefully against the terror arms of Iran’s axis of evil, so too will we act against the Houthis. However, in this case, we are not acting alone. Like us, the US and other countries see the Houthis not only as a threat to international maritime navigation but to the international order as well.”
- Addressing the Israeli public, he asked for “patience” in dealing with this threat, and “to continue showing the same resilience that you have shown up until now, and to strictly follow Home Front Command directives.”
- While Israel has not yet responded to this latest attack, the US military struck a missile storage facility and a command-and-control facility in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, on Saturday night. According to a CENTCOM statement, the strikes aimed to “disrupt and degrade Houthi operations, such as attacks against US navy warships and merchant vessels in the southern Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden.”
Context: Unlike other Iranian proxies (primarily Hezbollah and Hamas) that directly threaten Israel, the Houthis also represent a threat to the wider interests of the US, UK and international community though their targeting of maritime trade.
- The targeting of international shipping lanes has also badly damaged the Egyptian economy, with fleets forced to find alternative routes to avoid the Bab al-Mandeb straits and by extension the Suez Canal. Similarly, the southern Israeli port of Eilat has effectively been shut down.
- Earlier this year, the US and UK conducted five joint naval and air strikes against the Houthis in response to their ongoing attacks against international cargo ships.
- Houthi leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, last week declared that over the last 14 months they had fired 1,147 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or drones.
- According to Israeli figures, around 400 of those have been directed towards Israel (the vast majority of which have been successfully intercepted) while the rest targeted international ships.
- Recent data suggests these attacks are increasing. According to the Alma Research and Education Centre, there have been 12 attacks so far in December, compared to a previous monthly average of five.
- The Israeli assessment is that while the missile and drones are supplied by Iran, the Houthis act relatively independently.
- Their motivation is to support Hamas and the Palestinian cause which is popular domestically and across the Arab world. Furthermore, their ability to disrupt international shipping lanes raises their international profile.
- Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the world ranked 183rd out of 191 countries with a per capita income of $477 a year (compared to $3,372 in the Palestinian territories). Two thirds of its approximately 30 million population live with food insecurity or hunger.
- Israel faces substantial challenges in dealing with the Houthis, primarily due to the significant distance from Yemen (2,000km). As such, Israeli intelligence does not possess a bank of targets and find it harder to track and locate Houthi leaders who could also form potential targets.
- The three Israeli strikes over the last year have focused on state infrastructure, such as fuel depots and the ports used to import the Iranian weapons.
- These recent attacks raise speculation that Israel could choose to punish Iran for continuing to support and supply the Houthis.
- The continued attacks also present an opportunity for Israel to increase its military coordination with regional allies like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf states that also face threats from the Houthis and Iran.
- In separate but related news, Arab media has reported that the Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq announced they are stopping their attacks against Israel. The decision was made in the framework of an agreement with the president of Iraq Al Sudani who has been applying pressure on the militias to cease attacks against Israel.
Looking ahead: As the Houthis appear to operate independently, it is feared they will continue to attack Israel.
- Israel will be hoping that the incoming Trump administration will take a more forceful approach.
