What’s happened: The foreign ministers of UK, France and Germany (E3) announced “snapback mechanism” at the UN Security Council, initiating a 30-day process to restore international restrictions and sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes.

• In their joint statement they declared  shared “fundamental objective that Iran shall never seek, acquire or develop a nuclear weapon.” 
• They noted Iranian violations of the JCPOA nuclear agreement over the last six years including exceeded limits on enriched uranium, heavy water, and centrifuges, as well as restricted ability to conduct verification and monitoring activities.
• Whist emphasising that despite the US withdrawal from the agreement the E3 “consistently undertook intensive diplomatic efforts to deescalate tensions and to bring Iran and the United States to the negotiating table for a comprehensive negotiated solution. We acted in good faith to preserve the JCPOA, in the sincere hope of finding a way to resolve the impasse through constructive diplomatic dialogue, while preserving the agreement and remaining within its framework.” Listing numerous efforts to reach understandings.  
• However, “today, Iran’s non-compliance with the JCPOA is clear and deliberate, and sites of major proliferation concern in Iran are outside of IAEA monitoring. Iran has no civilian justification for its high enriched uranium stockpile – now over 9 Significant Quantities – which is also unaccounted for by the IAEA. Its nuclear programme therefore remains a clear threat to international peace and security.” The significant quantities of nuclear material are designed to produce nuclear bombs.  

Context: Alongside the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear programme. Israel continues to fight with Iranian proxies, particularly Hamas and the Houthis. 

• The Israel Air Force carried out its latest strikes on the Houthis on Thursday. Instead of striking military and infrastructure (as they have in the past), this attack appears to have targeted several senior Houthi officials that had gathered in Sanaa to watch a speech from their leader, Abdul-Malik al Houthi. As yet unconfirmed, Arab media sources have reported that the Houthi prime minister, Ahmed al-Rahawi, was among those eliminated. 
• The Houthis have launched close to 100 missiles and drones towards Israel since March 2025, the vast majority have been intercepted, whilst in May one landed within the perimeter of Ben Gurion Airport. 
• For years, due to other operational priorities Israel did not carry out substantial intelligence gathering against the Houthis, relying instead on the US. In recent months Israel has sought to build up their intelligence picture, if these strikes are successful it would mark another significant achievement for both Israeli intelligence and air force capability. 
• Also on Thursday, the UK government has imposed unilateral restrictions on Israel’s official participation at the Defence and Security Equipment International (DSEI) exhibition, scheduled to take place in London in September.
• According to Israel’s MOD, “these restrictions amount to a deliberate and regrettable act of discrimination against Israel’s representatives.” Further noting, “At a time when Israel is engaged on multiple fronts against Islamist extremists and terrorist organisations – forces that also threaten the West and international shipping lanes – this decision by Britain plays into the hands of extremists, grants legitimacy to terrorism, and introduces political considerations wholly inappropriate for a professional defence industry exhibition.”
• The UK’s decision is particularly disappointing in light of the two countries shared threats assessments and self-defeating as its denying a platform for presenting battle tested technology from a trusted ally.
• In another UK connected regional development, it was recently revealed that former Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair has been working alongside the Trump administration, developing a detailed plan for the future of Gaza governance and reconstruction. Although not yet full announced the plans includes provisions for expanding the food supply, housing and education. The idea appears to begin with the implementation process in the southern Gaza Strip, which is under IDF control and is relatively stabilised. 
• Following his stint as prime minister, Blair led the Quartet’s efforts to reinvigorate a peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. Under his leadership they declared three principles beholden on Hamas (that were never met):
  • Declare an end to terror attacks.
  • Recognise the State of Israel.
  • Respect previous agreements signed between Israel and Palestinian representatives.   
• In the meantime the IDF announced two additional humanitarian aid distribution centres will be be established in the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF also declared, “since the end of May until now, more than 2.3 million weekly food packages have been distributed to families through the four existing centres.”
• Despite continued protests inside Israel calling for the hostages to be released, there appears little prosect for a deal before the IDF’s planned incursion into Gaza City.  However, according to the latest comments by US Special Envoy Witkoff, Hamas has signalled that it would be receptive to reaching an arrangement, and that Israel also wants to negotiate an end to the war and the hostages’ release.
• In preparation of the planned IDF operation into  Gaza City, IDF Arabic-language spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee issued a statement to residents telling them, “There is no alternative to evacuating Gaza City. Every family that moves south will get the most humanitarian aid possible, which the IDF is working to expand at this time. We have already begun the work of setting up tents, preparing areas where aid centres can be established and laying water infrastructure.” Hamas has continued to warn citizens to ignore the IDF and remain in situ.   

Looking ahead: The snapback process now opens a 30-day period before reimposing sanctions “and other restrictive measures” via the UN Security Council resolutions. 

• The statement concludes, “if the UNSC does not adopt within 30 days a resolution to continue the lifting of UNSC resolutions on Iran, six Security Council resolutions, including on sanctions, will be restored.”
• The IDF continues the preparations for an assault on the Hamas strongholds in Gaza City. 
• The security cabinet is scheduled to meet on Sunday to discuss plans for conquering Gaza City and to authorise the operational plans that were presented to the defence minister and the prime minister.

What’s happened: The US, UK, France, and Germany have agreed on a joint deadline of August 31 for snapback sanctions to come into effect against Iran if no new nuclear agreement is reached by then.

• US Secretary of State Rubio held a phone call with the three European countries’ Foreign Ministers yesterday, and all four agreed on the ultimatum.
• The so-called “snapback” would restore the sanctions that were on Iran prior to the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA. It would take a full month for the sanctions to come into force.
• A deadline of August 31 for reaching a deal creates a very tight space for negotiations, which have not yet formally begun, on a range of complex issues. On the other hand, the Europeans were keen for an early deadline so that the sanctions, if implemented, could be carried out before Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on October 1.
• Also related to Iran, a new report on ballistic missile strikes on Israel during the Twelve Day War in June show that the Iranians were able to recalibrate their attacks on Israel to exploit gaps in Israel’s missile defence. According the Wall Street Journal, by the war’s final days, Israel’s interception rate was less than half what it was at the beginning. Thus the Iranians were landing more missiles on Israeli cities at the end of the war despite launching significantly fewer.

Initial assessments: Early and conflicting assessments of the damage to Iran’s nuclear sites continued to colour commentary on the outcome of the Twelve Day War. 

• A leaked report from the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) that questioned the extent of damage was seized upon by critics of the war and prominently featured in major media outlets. 
• Yesterday, at the NATO summit in the Hague, President Trump shared a summary assessment from the Israel Atomic Energy Commission stating that the Fordow site, the underground facility hit by American bunker buster bombs, was “inoperable.”
• The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security has published an initial assessment. Based on high-resolution satellite imagery and open-source intelligence. their initial determination is that: “Overall, Israel’s and US attacks have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack. That being said, there are residuals such as stocks of 60 percent, 20 percent, and 3-5 percent enriched uranium and the centrifuges manufactured but not yet installed at Natanz or Fordow. These non-destroyed parts pose a threat as they can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium.”
• The Iranians themselves will be making their own assessments of the damage to their nuclear programme, something they were not able to begin in the immediate aftermath of the US raids because roads leading to the site were reportedly also bombed. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei conceded that “our nuclear installations have been badly damaged,” but did not offer more detail.
• For the time being, the IDF has not released any detailed assessment regarding the current state of Iran’s nuclear programme. Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir did, however, make a public statement last night in which he described the damage to Iran’s nuclear programme as “not a localised blow, but a systemic one.” He added that “the accumulated achievement allows us to determine that the Iranian nuclear program suffered severe, broad, and deep damage and was pushed back by years.”
• Mossad Director David Barnea also released a video statement yesterday hailing the achievements of his agency in the war with Iran. “Israel, thanks to this entire security apparatus, today feels like a different country, a safer country, a braver country that is prepared for the future,” he said in the statement. “Objectives that once seemed imaginary have now been achieved. We will continue to keep a watchful eye on all known Iranian projects — we are intimately familiar with them — and we will be there, just as we have been until now.”

Context: Detailed damage assessments have not been made public, and will take several more weeks to compile. 

• On Israel’s Channel 12 News, Zohar Palti, a former head of the Political-Military Bureau at the Ministry of Defence and previously a senior official in the Mossad, explained that a serious battle damage assessment (BDA) report takes weeks to compile, as it is built on physical and intelligence data that are impossible to attain simply by examining a satellite photo. 
• Inputs will include reports from the crews carrying out the bombing, subsequent flyovers, satellite imagery, human intelligence from sources on the ground, and signal intelligence monitoring enemy assessments and recovery efforts.
• Along with Mossad operative, IDF Chief of Staff revealed on Wednesday that IDF commandos had also been operating on the ground in Iran, without going into more details.
• Along with Israel, US and Iran, it is expected that the UK and France are also likely to make their own assessments on the status of Iran’s nuclear project. 
• Another unanswered question relates to the stockpiles of highly enriched uranium (HEU).
• The fact that the Americans are still making demands after the war regarding HEU in Iran is widely seen as an indication that some HEU remains in Iranian hands. There has been widespread speculation about possible Iranian efforts to remove HEU from bombed sites before they were hit, as well as competing assessments from various experts regarding their ability to convert it into bomb-grade material without the facilities that have been destroyed.
• In parallel, five funerals were held in Israel on Wednesday, and two more will be held today, for the seven IDF soldiers killed yesterday in combat in Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip.
• So far this June, 19 soldiers have been killed in action, making it the deadliest period for Israel this year. 
• At the same time, though 28 civilians were killed by Iranian ballistic missiles, not a single IDF soldier was killed in action in the 12 Day War.     
• In Israeli media, families of fallen soldiers as well as families of hostages still held in Gaza were widely interviewed with many urging the government to leverage the end of the war in Iran to bring about an end to the war in Gaza.
• A political firestorm erupted following the statement of MK Moshe Gafni, a senior figure in one of the ultra-orthodox parties that are part of the governing coalition (and one of the longest serving members of parliament). Gafni questioned the efficacy of continuing the war in Gaza. “I don’t understand, even to this very moment, what we are fighting for there,” he said yesterday in a Knesset committee meeting. “I don’t understand what the need is. What are we going to do there when soldiers are being killed all the time?… We need a Trump to come here and say, ‘We are bringing back the hostages, stopping all these things, and returning to normality.’” Gafni and his party have been threatening in recent weeks to leave the coalition if the Government won’t ensure the passage of a law exempting ultra-orthodox men from the draft.
• The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) reports that it has distributed 44 million meals in the four weeks it has been operating. Rev. Johnnie Moore, the former chair of the GHF, once more called on the UN to work with the Foundation, something the UN and most aid agencies have thus far refused to do. He further condemned the inaccurate reporting of violence at the GHF distribution sites, accusing Hamas of deliberately planting false stories with Al Jazeera that GHF sites were “death traps” in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the only method of aid distribution that Hamas is unable to profit from.

Looking ahead: Within a few weeks an aggregated and consensus view of the battle damage assessment (BDA) could be made public.

• Much  media attention has been focussed on the question of the whereabout of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The New York Times reports that he has not been seen in public at all in more than a week, with speculation rampant about his physical and mental state. Even while the ceasefire was being brokered, the military  commanders and government officials responsible for passing messages to the Qatari mediators were “evasive about whether they [had] met or spoken with Mr. Khamenei.”
• The US is now prepared to renew negotiations over a nuclear deal. Negotiations had been underway for two months before the onset of the war without any real progress. The US administration has reportedly set three conditions for an agreement now: no enrichment on Iranian soil, removal of all highly enriched uranium from Iran, and a cap on ballistic missile production.

Ceasefire: Overnight President Trump declared on social media that a “complete and total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran “has been fully agreed.”

• Trump congratulated “Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will!” 
• According to Trump the ceasefire for Iran came into effect this morning, whilst Israel was given an additional 12 hours to complete its operation.
• The ceasefire has since been confirmed by both Iranian and Israeli governments. 
• As anticipated, just as the ceasefire came into effect Iran fired a final salvo of around 15 missiles. Most were intercepted but one directly struck a seven-story residential building in Beer Sheva, killing four people. 

Strikes in Iran: Over the last 24 hours Israel ramped up the intensity of their bombing campaign.  

• The Israeli Air Force continued to target Iranian military infrastructure and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facilities.
• The targets struck included missile production sites, military command posts and air-defence systems. IAF aircraft fired roughly 200 munitions in five separate waves of air strikes. 
• Israel eliminated another prominent Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohammad Reza Sabar, who had survived a previous attempt on his life. 
• Israel also hit several targets associated with the regime in the heart of Tehran. The attacks targeted bases used by the IRGC and the Basij, as well as the entrance and guard post of Evin Prison, which the regime uses to incarcerate political prisoners and opponents of the regime. 
• Another target was the famous clock in Palestine Square that gave the “countdown” until Israel’s anticipated destruction in 2040.
• The nuclear facility in Fordow was attacked once again yesterday as well. According to reports, the IDF attacked the entrances to the installation, apparently in an effort to prevent the removal of equipment and material.   

Iran targets US base in Qatar: On Monday evening Iran symbolically retaliated against the US with missile launched towards the US base in Qatar.   

• Video footage shows interceptions above Doha in Qatar which is host to the Al-Udeid airbase. 
• Shortly after the attack, the IRGC issued a statement confirming that it had “targeted the Al-Udeid base in Qatar with a devastating and powerful missile attack in Operation Tidings of Victory.” 
• In response, President Trump has branded the Iranian attack as “very weak”, and thanked Iran for “giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.”
• Other sources have confirmed that Iran had deconflicted the attack in advance with Qatar to ensure that the potential for causing casualties was minimised, and that Tehran could be somewhat seen to save face after the US destroyed its nuclear enrichment facility in Fordow.

Context: Ahead of the ceasefire announcement Israeli officials had been suggesting that the operation was almost complete with all the objectives met.

• Whilst Israel mourns the 28 civilians killed, the military operation is considered a stunning success, delivering results beyond the planners’ expectations. 
• Crucially Israel is satisfied. It has removed a double immediate and existential threat, posed by the nuclear and ballistic missiles programme.
• It remains unclear to what extent the nuclear sites have been destroyed and whether the stockpiles of enriched uranium are buried in the rubble or if they were moved to another location.   
• The working assessment is that the installation in Natanz was completely destroyed. Israeli officials are still waiting for confirmation about the status of Fordow and Isfahan. 
• It remains to be seen whether the Iranian nuclear programme was completely obliterated or whether it was merely set back, and by how long. Iran probably still possesses some of the 60 per cent enriched uranium, though not clear how much, but now will face real difficulty enriching it to the level needed for a nuclear bomb. 
• According to assessments, Iran had around 2,500 ballistic missiles at the beginning of the war. Roughly 500 of those missiles were fired at Israel, and another 800 are believed to have been destroyed by Israeli air strikes. The IAF also had success decommissioning over two thirds of their launchers.     
• Over the last day targets included the regime itself and the security organisations responsible for ensuring its survival. The goal was to weaken and destabilise those organisations to enable opponents of the regime within Iran to rebel effectively. The general assessment remains that if an uprising in Iran does occur, it will not be immediate, but can only happen after Israel concludes its military campaign. 

Looking ahead: According to the ceasefire understanding, Israel has a remaining few hours to complete any further attacks. 

• Speaking to the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee yesterday National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said that Israel is “very close to expanding the Abraham Accords. Immediately with the end of the war, a significant diplomatic effort will be made to achieve agreements with Lebanon and Syria. Expedited work is already being done and, if that happens, and there is a good chance that it will happen, this will spell the practical end of the Iranian axis.”
• There is also hope that renewed efforts will now be made to end the fighting in Gaza and secure the release of all the 50 remaining hostages. 

What’s happening: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) have continued their aerial bombing campaign across Iran.

• According to the IDF, they attacked six airfields in western, eastern, and central Iran. The strikes damaged runways, underground bunkers, a refuelling plane, and around 15 aircraft, including fighter jets.
• They also struck missile and drone launch sites in Isfahan, Bushehr, Ahvaz, and for the first time Yazd.
• Yazd in central Iran is around 2,200km from Israel, housed the “Imam Hussein” Strategic Missile Command Centre, where long-range Khorramshahr missiles were stored. Approximately 60 missiles have been launched from there towards Israel.
• IAF Commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, said, “In broad daylight, we surprised the ‘Imam Hussein’ missile headquarters in central Iran, the furthest target we’ve struck to date. We destroyed Khorramshahr missiles before they were launched at Israel and struck tunnels used to store the missiles. We are continuing waves of strikes across Iran, disrupting the enemy’s ability to launch salvos into Israeli territory, degrading their firepower capabilities, and operating decisively to defend the Israeli home front and reduce rocket fire.”
• Following the US strikes, on Sunday morning Iran fired between 20 and 30 ballistic missiles at Israel. 23 people were wounded mostly with light injuries.
• This morning Iran fired a single missile at around 0300 local time, and around 10 missiles again after 1000 am. 
• Earlier over the weekend Israel eliminated two more very high ranking members of the Iranian IRGC. Benham Shariyari, who oversaw Quds Force arms delivery operations, and Saeed Izadi, who served as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ chief liaison with Hamas. Their death are thought to have a major impact disrupting future efforts to arm Iranian proxies.
• Chief of Staff Zamir said that the IDF views Izadi’s elimination as one of the key moments of the current war. 

Operation Midnight Hammer: The American strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites represents a new record level of US – Israeli military coordination. 

• Following the strike, President Trump noted that the United States and Israel “worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.”
• At the request of President Trump, IAF jets preceded the American B-2 bombers and conducted a wave of strikes on Iran’s air defences, clearing a path for the incoming American bombers. The Israeli pre-strikes, on targets provided by the US military, enabled US planes to enter Iranian air space, strike their targets, and exit safely.
• More than 125 US planes participated in the attack, including fighters, bombers, refuelers, electronic warfare and intelligence aircraft. Iran failed to fire a single shot in return. 
• President Trump and the Prime Minister have been in regular and direct contact, speaking before and after the operation.   
• Later Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the Israeli public and thanked President Trump, adding, “In Operation Rising Lion, Israel has done truly amazing things. But in tonight’s action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, America has been truly unsurpassed. It has done what no other country on earth could do. History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons. His leadership today has created a pivot of history that can help lead the Middle East and beyond to a future of prosperity and peace.”
• “President Trump and I often say, ‘Peace through strength.’ First comes strength, then comes peace. And tonight President Trump and the United States acted with a lot of strength.”
• Whilst Trump has claimed “monumental damage” with the three sites “obliterated” Israel experts are independently analysing the damage.        
• According to the preliminary Israeli assessment the strikes “successfully inflicted extensive damage.” 

UK position: The UK has taken a more studied approach, noticeably refraining from praising either Israel or the US in the aftermath of their own strikes while calling for de-escalation and a return to negotiations.

• Prime Minister Starmer spoke with President Trump yesterday, and warned of a “risk of escalation” to the Middle East and beyond the region in the aftermath of the US strikes.
• The British Business Secretary also suggested that the Iranian threat to the UK stood to increase in the aftermath of the strikes.

What happens next: In the short term Israel is expected to keep up its attacks on military targets for the next few days.     

• In parallel Israel is open to “off-ramp” where they end their attacks in lieu of a diplomatic process. 
• On Sunday evening Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Once we achieve the goals, we will not continue beyond what is necessary. But we won’t end it prematurely either. Once the goals are achieved, the operation will be completed and the fighting will stop. We will not be drawn into a war of attrition. But nor will we end this action, this historic operation, before we achieve all its goals.”
• The US has told Iran that their mission is now complete, however if Iran chooses to retaliate, then the US is expected to deliver a harsh response.
• For now, we are waiting for a possible Iranian response. Among their options: They could launch attack on US bases in the region including in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and beyond. They could internationalise the conflict by closing the Strait of Hormuz and encourage the Houthis to close Bab al-Mandab. 
• Following the US strikes Israel’s Home Front Command have reinstated tightened public restrictions across Israel, permitting essential activity only.

Gaza Strip: Also over the weekend Israel retrieved the bodies of three more hostages, Yonatan Samerano, Staff Sgt. Shai Levinson and Ofra Kedar.

• Ofra Keidar was 71 years old, a mother of three from Kibbutz Be’eri. She was married to Shmuel Keidar, both were murdered brutally in their kibbutz. 
• Yonatan Samerano was 21 years old. He was killed at the Nova music festival, when Hamas opened fire on him. He was then dragged into Gaza by Hamas terrorists. According to the IDF, one of the terrorists was an UNRWA worker.
• Staff Sergeant Shay Levinson was nineteen years old. He was a tank commander who bravely fought against terrorists on the morning of October 7th. He fell in battle, defending Israeli communities until his last moments. His body was then taken to Gaza. 
• Fifty hostages still remain in brutal Hamas captivity for 626 days.

Israeli strikes: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) have maintained a relentless campaign prioritising the targeting of nuclear sites, and Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles against Israel.

• On Thursday the IAF bombed Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, although currently inactive was designed to  produce plutonium for nuclear weapons. 
• Israel also conducted a second strike on the Natanz enrichment facility as well as dozens of other military sites.
• 40 fighter jets dropped 100 munitions on dozens of Iranian military facilities in Tehran and other areas of Iran.
• In another assault comprising of approximately 20 fighter jets targeted and destroyed numerous surface-to-surface missile infrastructure sites, as well as trucks carrying the missiles themselves.

Israel’s home front: For the first time in six nights, there were no sirens overnight.  

• The IAF intercepted three drones on Thursday night. Two of them were intercepted within minutes in the Dead Sea area and the third was intercepted in the Haifa area. No one was injured.
• At around 6am local time one missile was fired towards southern Israel. It fell near a residential building in Beer Sheva and five people sustained light injuries.
• On Thursday, Iran fired around 30 ballistic missiles at Israeli cities. One struck the Soroka hospital in Beer Sheva.
• There was significant structural damage, with six people seriously injured. Fortunately, the main building struck had been evacuated one day prior, preventing a devastating mass casualty event.
• Visiting the scene, Prime Minister Netanyahu commented, “We are hitting with precision the targets of the nuclear and missile programmes, and they’re hitting the children’s ward of a hospital. That tells you everything.” 
• Israel’s medical institutions are renowned bastions of coexistence, made up of Jewish and Muslim medical staff and patients. Soroka,  the largest hospital in southern Israel, serves around 1million Israelis in southern Israel including a large Bedouin population.  
• Elsewhere on Thursday a missile exploded in a residential area near a kindergarten in southern Tel Aviv, causing major damage to several apartment buildings and a synagogue. Four people were seriously injured and 16 were wounded in total. Rescue workers removed those trapped under the rubble.
• Another missile struck the city of Ramat Gan, one of Israel’s main financial districts, causing widespread destruction to high-rise buildings, seriously injuring two people, and lightly injuring at least 20 others.

US role:  President Trump is keeping everyone guessing whether the US will join the offensive.   

• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt revealed the President will make a decision, “within the next two weeks.”
• She reaffirmed the president’s position that a deal must include, “no enrichment of uranium and… Iran is absolutely not able to achieve a nuclear weapon. The President has been very clear about that.”
• Yesterday, it was also reported that Special Envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, have spoken by phone multiple times over the last few days with a view towards identifying a diplomatic route to ending the conflict. While Iran is understood to be in a position where it can “show flexibility in the nuclear issue”, this would only be if the US pressured Israel to ceasing its attacks.
• In parallel, several cargo planes carrying armaments and military equipment for the IDF arrived in Israel.
• The replenishment of munitions, particularly for anti-missile defence has been a significant factor in how long Israel will be able to keep up the military campaign, and adequately defend the home front.     
• Since the start of the operation, the US has sent 14 cargo planes with equipment.
• The US is also reported to have redeployed air assets away from the Al-Udeid base in Qatar given fears of retaliatory Iranian strikes, while United and American Airlines have temporarily suspended flights to Doha and Dubai. 
• Iran has threatened military action against US troops if it joins Israel’s military operations with Ayatollah Khamenei warning of “irreparable damage”, and asserted that “the Iranian nation is not one to surrender.”

UK’s diplomatic efforts: Foreign Secretary David Lammy has been busy this week trying to identify a path towards a de-escalation between the sides and avoid the US joining Israeli strikes. 

• Last night, Lammy and Ambassador Lord Mandelson met with the US Secretary of State (and acting National Security Advisor) Marco Rubio and President Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff in the White House. 
• Following the meeting, Lammy wrote on X, “The situation in the Middle East remains perilous. We are determined that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon….we discussed how a deal could avoid a deepening conflict. A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution.”

Context: A week into the offensive Israel is bullish that it has made substantial progress in thwarting the Iranian nuclear and conventional threat, but there remains significant challenges.

• Foremost, the nuclear site in Fordow, housing their most advanced centrifuges buried deep under a mountain. There is ongoing speculation whether Israel has the means to inflict enough damage independently. Israeli officials insist they can, but the job would be substantially quicker and easier if the US were to deploy their heavy bombers.      
• While most of Iran’s nuclear programme has been severely damaged elsewhere, unless Fordow is destroyed it is likely to remain viable and able to enrich uranium at levels designed for military purposes.
• The IDF has also disclosed that while Iran had fired approximately 1000 drones at Israel in the past week, only around 20 per cent reached Israel’s borders of which 95 per cent were successfully intercepted.
• The IDF believes that it has destroyed up to two thirds of Iran’s missile launchers, and these are likely to continue being a priority target.
• In a rare interview on Kan News Prime Minister Netanyahu would not say whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini was a target. He reiterated that regime change lies with the “Iranian people alone,” but added, “We’re also striking government targets, symbols of the regime. You’ve seen it, the broadcast station and others. There’s more to come.”

Looking ahead: Today, Foreign Secretary Lammy will meet with the Iranian Foreign Minister alongside French, German and EU counterparts in Switzerland for talks on how to resolve the crisis. 

• Despite Lammy interpreting Trump’s statement that “a window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution.” Israeli sources have suggested that this decision may actually be as little as 24-48 hours away.