Israeli politics & society

Updated December 19, 2024

Israel claims 80% of Syrian military’s equipment destroyed

11/12/24

What’s happened: in the past 48 hours, Israeli strikes across Syria have destroyed up to 80% of the country’s strategic military equipment in a bid to prevent it from falling into hostile hands.

In a statement yesterday, the IDF confirmed that it had conducted over 350 strikes in Syria against what it is describing as “strategic targets” in Operation Bashan Arrow.
These targets included two Syrian naval ports at Latakia and Al-Bayda, sea-to-sea missiles with ranges of 80-190km, anti-aircraft batteries, weapons production sites, Scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, tanks, electronic warfare systems, intelligence bases and hangars. The Israel Navy also destroyed approximately 15 missile boats and approximately 20 coast guard vessels, minelayers and landing ships that were in Syrian possession.
The Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Centre in Damascus, which was considered a cover for the development and production of chemical weapons, missiles and rockets – and which more recently helped Hezbollah to improve the precision of its rockets – was also destroyed.
Speaking after the attacks, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that while Israel would seek to establish relations with the post-Assad regime Syria and not interfere in its internal affairs, “we certainly do intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security” in a confirmation that it would not hesitate to defend itself.
The Prime Minister added “if this regime allows Iran to reestablish itself in Syria, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or attacks us, we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it…What happened to the previous regime will also happen to this regime.”
While Bashan Arrow was being completed, the Israeli Army continued its takeover of the 1974 Syrian buffer zone and now controls the entirety of Mount Hermon.
The UN has criticised Israel’s actions in the buffer zone, and accused it of violating the 1974 Syria disengagement deal.
Syrian sources have alleged that Israeli forces are operating outside of the buffer zone and approaching Damascus, which the IDF has strenuously denied. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and the Arab League also criticised the Israeli move.
Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Mohammed al-Bashir who previously led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) de facto rebel government in Idlib province, has been appointed as Syria’s caretaker Prime Minister until 1st March 2025.
Speaking to Al Jazeera afterwards, al-Bashir confirmed that efforts were being made include previous government members in any transition arrangements “in order to facilitate all the necessary works for the next two months until we have a constitutional system to be able to serve the Syrian people.”
Prime Minister Starmer has confirmed that no decision has been made yet on whether or not HTS will be removed from the Home Office’s list of banned organisations, and that it was “far too early” to consider a policy change, despite one of his Cabinet members earlier telling the BBC that this was a possibility.
The UN and US are also both reportedly considering delisting HTS as a terrorist group on the condition that it renounces terror, takes meaningful steps towards forming an inclusive government, and protects minorities.

Context: The destruction of the Syrian army’s main capabilities is the largest military operation the IDF has ever undertaken, and one the IDF had not prepared in advance.

It was based on the logic that Syria possessed significant capabilities that could pose a threat were they to fall into irresponsible hands.
Destroying the Syrian army’s capabilities was not previously carried out during the civil war so as to not be seen as Israel declaring war on the Assad regime, as well as due to the fear upsetting the Russians.
Before Assad’s fall, the Syrian military possessed 30 MiG 29 fighter jets, about 150 MiG 21, MiG 23 and Sukhoi 22 fighter jets, as well as 18 mid-range Sukhoi 24 bomber aircraft, half of which were thought to be still usable. The Syrian regime also possessed about 50 Mi-17 troop transportation aircraft, about 30 Mi-24 helicopter gunships and French-made Gazelle helicopters.
Of bigger concern to Israel was Syria’s air defence systems. These included more than 100 SA-5 and S300 long range batteries, mobile BUK-M1/2 and Pantsir missiles and other models. In 2021, one of the SA-5F batteries successfully downed an IAF F-16.
The collapse of the Assad regime is widely understood in Israel as a second order effect of the catastrophic weakening of Iran’s Axis of Resistance following Hezbollah’s recent defeat in southern Lebanon and Russia’s preoccupation with war in Ukraine.
Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria 2011-2015, before the Russian intervention – had acted as a regime survival guarantor. Yet following the recent war with Israel, Hezbollah was in no position to deploy to Syria and hold off the recent rebel offensive in any meaningful way.
Similarly, Russia also lacked the resources to significantly support Assad as it did from 2015 until its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
While Yahya Sinwar had hoped that last year’s 7th October attacks would catalyse a regional upheaval against Israel, the opposite has in fact proven true: Hamas has functionally been removed from governing the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has been decimated with much of its leadership assassinated and weaponry destroyed; Iran’s client regime in Syria has been overthrown; and almost the entirety of Iran’s air defence systems has been neutralised.
The 235-square-kilometre demilitarised buffer zone was established as part of the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria. Since then it has been by UN peacekeepers, UNDOF. Israel argues that following the fall of the Assad regime, it considers the agreement void.

Hostage negotiations: The IDF and Shin Bet’s leadership have joined discussions in Cairo aimed at securing a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza that would ultimately lead to the release of hostages captured on 7th October 2023.

Ronen Bar and Herzi Halevi met with senior Egyptian officials following an assessment that the chances of reaching an agreement with Hamas had increased.
Although Hamas has not given any publication indication as to its current views on whether or not it is open to a ceasefire and releasing hostages, Israeli officials believe this may be the case and there may be a chance to reach a deal in the month-long run up before President-elect Trump’s inauguration.

December 9, 2024

Israel moves into demilitarised zone on Golan as Assad regime collapses

09/12/24

What’s happened: Syrian rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and backed by Turkey announced that they had captured Damascus and the Baathist regime led by Bashar al-Assad had fallen.

Assad is reported to have fled Syria with his family, and is understood to have been granted asylum in Russia.
The former Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, has said that the government was ready to “extend its hand” and turn its functions over to a transitionary administration. He has also called for free elections and confirmed he is in contact with rebel leaders.
In a statement read out on TV, the head of HTS and the de-facto leader of the rebel forces, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, declared “the future is ours” and said “there is no room for turning back”. The Syrian opposition coalition has also confirmed that it is working towards forming a transitional governing body with full executive powers, and has ambitions to form both global and regional partnerships.
President Biden said the fall of the Assad’s regime “is a direct result of the blows that Ukraine and Israel have delivered against Russia, Hamas, and Hezbollah with unflagging support from the United States.” Biden added that there was a historic opportunity to build a better future in Syria, but cautioned it was also a moment of risk and uncertainty in the region. US Central Command said the US military had struck more than 75 ISIS targets in the country to prevent the terrorist group from taking advantage of the situation there.
Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Separation of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syria – signed after the Yom Kippur War – had collapsed, and Israel deployed troops to the buffer zone on the Syrian border to guarantee the security of communities in the Golan Heights. Israel also conducted several airstrikes on ammunition and weapons depots across Syria – including those connected to chemical weapons – to destroy equipment it fears may fall into hostile hands.
Referring to the collapse of the Assad regime, Netanyahu said: “This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East. The Assad regime – a central link in Iran’s axis of evil – has fallen.”
Prime Minister Starmer, has welcomed the collapse of the regime while calling for “peace and stability” in the country and rejecting terrorism. The PM said the collapse of Assad’s regime marked a positive change for the Syrian people and that the way of tackling problems of terrorism and restoring security is through a political solution which the UK will be engaged with. Foreign Secretary Lammy also called for the protection of minorities while reiterating how “Syrians deserve an inclusive political transition and a pathway to peace and security.”
Despite being a longstanding patron of the Assad regime, Iran has responded cooly with a statement from their foreign ministry saying “the relations between the two nations of Iran and Syria have a long history and have always been friendly, and it is expected that these relations will continue”.

Context: The Assad family has been in control of Syria for over half a century and has been in a perpetual state of conflict with Israel. However, since the cessation of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the armistice agreement the following year it has been one of Israel’s quietest borders.

In recent years, Syria has been a central component of Iran’s circle of fire, surrounding Israel with hostile entities and crucially serving as an overland link to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran has also used Syrian territory to develop and store advanced weapons systems destined both for Hezbollah but Iranian militias inside Syria.
The timing of the rebel offensive and the speed of the Syrian army collapse has been widely credited to Israel’s success in dismantling Hezbollah’s military capacity. With Russia predisposed with its war in Ukraine, the Syrian army was left isolated with the rebels taking full advantage.
This marks the first time since the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement was signed that Israeli forces have taken up positions inside the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, albeit having briefly entered on several other occasions.
Israel’s top priority is to defend civilian communities living on the Golan Heights in close vicinity to the border and to prevent rebels from threatening the Israeli border. The first area the troops entered on Saturday was around the Druze village of Hader in an effort to assist UN forces to repel an attack.
Hader is considered the sister village of Majdal Shams (which is located on the Israeli side of the Golan) with close familial bonds between the two.
In recent months Israel has dug deep anti-tank ditches along the Syrian border to prevent an invasion by pick-up trucks similar to those used by Hamas on October 7th.
Israel’s second priority is to prevent advanced weapons systems from falling into the hands of the rebels. Since the middle of last week, Israel has been carrying out a series of strikes against strategic weapons facilities held by the Assad regime.
Syria formerly possessed the largest arsenal of chemical weapons in the world. While most of that arsenal was removed from Syrian territory, it is thought likely to still possess capabilities (and know-how).
Despite disaffiliating from Al Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains proscribed in the UK with Home Office guidance stipulating that it “should be treated as alternative names for the organisation which is already proscribed under the name Al Qa’ida” (sic). This will likely pose significant challenges to the Labour government given HTS’s leading role in the current rebel coalition.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Starmer visits the Gulf countries this week, aiming to strengthen the trade and defence partnerships between the UK and the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are the ‘most vital modern-day partners’. He will also be discussing the new leadership in Syria and the opportunity to create change.

With Iran reeling from the collapse of its regional proxies there is heightened concern that Iran could increase its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

November 7, 2024

New military deal – F15s

Israel’s Ministry of Defence yesterday signed “a landmark transaction to acquire the next generation of F-15 fighter jets, purchasing 25 advanced aircraft from Boeing.”

According to the MOD, “The $5.2 billion (£4bn) agreement, part of a broader package of US aid approved by the US Administration and Congress earlier this year, includes an option for 25 additional aircraft.”
“The new F-15IA aircraft will be equipped with cutting-edge weapon systems, including the integration of state of the art Israeli technologies. The upgraded aircraft will feature enhanced range capabilities, increased payload capacity, and improved performance across various operational scenarios. These advantages will enable the Israeli Air Force to maintain its strategic superiority in addressing current and future challenges in the Middle East.”
However, “delivery of the F-15 aircraft will begin in 2031, with 4-6 aircraft to be supplied annually.”

November 7, 2024

Israeli leaders congratulate Trump

Congratulations: Even prior to the formal announcement of the President-elect’s victory, Prime Minister Netanyahu sent a congratulatory message, saying that Trump’s “historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

Last night, Trump and Netanyahu spoke over the phone. The two leaders agreed to work together for Israel’s security and discussed the Iranian threat.
Leader of the Opposition Lapid congratulated Trump on X writing, “You have shown yourself time and again to be a true friend of Israel. I know that with your leadership we will continue to strengthen and deepen the unique bond that exists between our two countries and expand the circle of peace in the Middle East. These are challenging times for Israel but with the ironclad support of the United States and strong leadership we can overcome them all. For the people of Israel there is no task more urgent than bringing our hostages home from Gaza.”
President Herzog said, “You are a true and dear friend of Israel, and a champion of peace and cooperation in our region. I look forward to working with you to strengthen the ironclad bond between our peoples, to build a future of peace and security for the Middle East, and to uphold our shared values.”
National Unity Party leader MK Benny Gantz, noted Trump’s past achievements and added, “Against the backdrop of emboldened Iranian aggression in this region, its race to nuclear capabilities, and the paramount efforts to return the hostages home, President Trump’s leadership will not only ensure the US continues to be a special friend and ally to the State of Israel but a vital beacon of moral clarity to the Middle East and the world.”
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas also congratulated Trump on his victory, expressing confidence he will support Palestinian’s aspirations for statehood.

Trump’s recent comments: President Elect Trump has consistently claimed to be a great friend of Israel.

On September 5^th he posted on his social media Truth 4.83 million followers that (in caps) “NO PRESIDENT HAS DEFENDED ISRAEL AND JEWISH AMERICANS MORE THAN DONALD J. TRUMP.”
In a short clip summarising his achievements, Trump mentioned:
- Declaring Jerusalem as the true capital of Israel;
- The US leaving the JCPOA nuclear accords with Iran;
- Imposing sanctions on Iran aimed at curbing their nuclear ambitions;
- Brokering and signing of the Abraham Accords.
At the same time, foreign policy including the Middle East is not a leading issue in American politics and the official 2024 Republican Party Platform says little about the region aside from “standing with Israel” and “restoring peace in the Middle East.”
Speaking at the Republican Jewish Coalition on September 5^th, Trump asserted that the Biden-Harris administration “sought to cast blame for these [Palestinian] deaths on Israel,” and that “the October 7^th attack on Israel would never have happened if he was President”. That sentiment was repeated during his September 10^th presidential debate against Harris.
In July 2024, Trump reportedly told Netanyahu “do what you have to do” and “finish up the war” but warned Netanyahu that Israel’s public relations have taken a hit due to the graphic videos of death and destruction that have come out of Gaza.

Israeli media initial assessments: Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Ron Ben Yishai recommends caution about the Trump administration. He highlights the fact that Trump’s son in law Jared Kushner will not be joining Trump in the White House, adding that that should concern Israel.

Israeli officials say that Netanyahu has been asked to leave Trump with a “clean” slate before he enters the Oval Office. To accomplish that, Netanyahu is going to have to learn how to make decisions at “Trump” speed, instead of continuing to juggle balls in the air.
On Channel 12 News, Ofer Hadad argues that while Biden or the Democratic Party didn’t like to break the rules, Trump doesn’t have any rules. For example, if Trump decides to stop the war or take any other step as part of his foreign policy, he will run over anyone who stands in his way, including Israel.
In an interview to Maariv today, Dr. Shay Har-Zvi from Reichman University, says that despite Trump’s policy of ‘America First’, the US would not be able to disengage from the Middle East and Israel could be under pressure to bring the war to an end.
He explains that Trump wishes that the war in the Middle East would come to an end before he enters the White House on January 20^th. In his victory speech Trump declared that he doesn’t wish to start wars. His main motivation is to focus on the significant challenge of the US in the international arena, as far as he concerned – the Chinese threat on the US dominancy and economy.
Har- Zvi emphasises the three main targets on Trump’s likely Middle East agenda: ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon which will secure the return of the hostages, advancing normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, and dealing with Iran’s nuclear threat. To enhance the normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu will have to show that he is willing to give the Palestinian diplomatic horizon.
Relating to Iran, Iranian expert Beni Sabti told Maariv that Trump will not continue working on Iran nuclear deal as it is now. The new administration might present new demands in three areas: the level of uranium enrichment, inspection on nuclear facilities and limitations on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Meanwhile Iranian government spokesperson, Fatemeh Mohajerani, said that the result would have little impact on Iran as “more than five decades of sanctions have toughened Iran.”
Maariv reports that Saudi Arabia has proposed opening an Israeli liaison office in Riyadh. The proposal was presented on the heels of the Euro-Muslim conference that was recently held to discuss the issue with the formal purpose of the office to coordinate the establishment of a Palestinian state.

November 6, 2024

Netanyahu fires Defence Minister Gallant

Statement by Prime Minister Netanyahu: In a surprise announcement on Tuesday night, Netanyahu fired Defence Minister Gallant. Netanyahu spoke of the necessity of “complete trust” being required between the prime minister and the defence minister.

Adding, “Unfortunately, even though such trust was present during the first months of the military campaign, and we had a very productive cooperation, during the past several months this trust between myself and the Defence Minister has begun to crack.”
“Defence Minister Gallant and I had substantial disagreements on the management of the military campaign, disagreements which were accompanied by public statements and actions that contravened the decisions of the Government and the Security Cabinet.”
“I have made multiple attempts to resolve these disagreements, but they became increasingly wider. They were also brought to the knowledge of the public in an inappropriate manner, and what is even worse, they have reached the knowledge of the enemy; our enemies have taken great delight in these disagreements and have derived much benefit from them.”
“The increasingly wide crisis of confidence between myself and the Defence Minister had become public knowledge, and that crisis is hindering the continued proper administration of the military campaign.”
Gallant will be replaced by Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz who, in turn, would be replaced by Gideon Saar.

Gallant statement: Gallant struck a dignified tone. He outlined the military achievements he oversaw across multiple fronts adding, “The security of the State of Israel has been, and always will be my life’s mission, and I am committed to this.”

He continued, “my removal from office is the result of disagreements on three issues:
- “The first, my steadfast position that every individual at the age of recruitment, must be recruited for service in the IDF and must defend the State of Israel. This is not just another minor social issue, this is a central issue to our existence, to the security of the State of Israel and the Jewish nation. During this war we have lost hundreds of soldiers and thousands have been wounded…. In this context there is no choice – everyone must serve in the IDF, and participate in the mission of defending the State of Israel.”
- “The second issue – It is our moral obligation and responsibility to ensure the return of our boys and girls held hostage, as soon as possible and to bring them back alive, to their families and homes.”
- The third issue – We must learn lessons and draw conclusions following a thorough investigation of events….there is only one way: the establishment of a state commission of inquiry.”
He added, “there are still significant challenges ahead of us, in facing Iran and its proxies in the region. Israel’s defence establishment is strong, we are striking our enemies sand defeating them. However, the war is not over, and unfortunately we will be required to face our enemies for many years ahead.”

Other responses: Leader of the opposition Lapid called the decision “an act of madness.”

Adding, “Netanyahu is selling Israel’s security and the IDF’s fighters for contemptible political survival. The fully right-wing government prioritises draft-dodgers over those who serve.”
Leader of the Democrats Yair Golan also called on the public to “head into the streets.”
Tens of thousands of people demonstrated last night in several locations throughout Israel to protest the decision. In Tel Aviv, the Ayalon Highway was blocked for a few hours and large bonfires were lit. Roughly 40 demonstrators were arrested. In Jerusalem, a demonstration was held near the prime minister’s residence and demonstrators marched in the direction of the Knesset.
President Herzog wrote on X, “The last thing the State of Israel needs now is upheaval and a rift in the middle of a war. The State of Israel’s security must be above every consideration. One hundred and one hostages are in enemy captivity this evening as well. Thousands of daughters and sons of bereaved families are mourning their world that was destroyed. Many reservists are carrying the burden of defending the people and the homeland and are crying out along with their families.”
Former prime minister Bennett said, “We have an insane and sick leadership that has lost any connection to what is important to the State of Israel and is acting against Israel and against the soldiers. Change is on the way. It will come. We will organise Israel from within.”
Whist National Security Minister Ben Gvir welcomed the move, writing: “I congratulate the prime minister for his decision to fire Gallant. With Gallant, who is still deeply beholden to the preconception, we can’t reach total victory—and the prime minister did well to remove him from office.”

Context: The decision is widely being interpreted as a crude political manoeuvre by Netanyahu to ensure the survival of his coalition.

He is facing increasing pressure from his ultra-Orthodox partners to pass the daycare subsidies bill and pander to their demands to enshrine their (lack of) service in the IDF in a new law.
Whist legally it is the prime minister’s prerogative to sack any minister, removing an accomplished heavyweight security expert whilst still fighting a multi-front war has been widely greeted with shock and anger.
Underlining this, 11 ballistic missiles were fired this morning from Lebanon, with sirens heard across Tel Aviv and central Israel. No injuries have been reported. Whist fighting continues in Lebanon and Gaza.
As well as his security acumen, Gallant through his close relationship with US Defence Secretary Austin, led the Israeli liaison with the US, including at a time now when Israel is facing a potential imminent attack from Iran.
The announcement also coincides (and distracts attention) from the latest scandal enveloping the prime minister’s office over leaked intelligence documents.
It also coincided with the US election. Prime Minister Netanyahu was quick to congratulate President Elect Trump, even before the result has been confirmed.
By promoting Katz and Saar, Netanyahu has found a way out of political trap. Only yesterday the coalition found it did not have a majority to pass the daycare bill. Saar was among those who spoke out against it. However, even he cannot so brazenly support a bill today that he opposed yesterday so instead the issue has now been removed from the legislative agenda for today. It is anticipated that this will now be included in overall compensation package to the ultra-Orthodox on a new draft bill, that will be prepared by the new defence minister.
There has been long standing acrimony between Netanyahu and Gallant. Netanyahu first attempted to remove Gallant in Spring 2023 after Gallant warned of dire security ramifications over the proposed judicial reform. That led to mass protest on the streets and Netanyahu’s subsequent reversal.
The new Defence Minister Israel Katz is one of Israel’s longest serving Likud politicians, having first been elected in 1992. He has served as Minister of Foreign Affairs (twice), Minister of Finance and Minister of Intelligence (for five years), and a long-standing member of the Security Cabinet. He is considered a Netanyahu loyalist that will be less strident and independent than Gallant.
The decision of Gideon Saar to serve as foreign minister, marks a sharp U-turn since he left the Likud in disillusioned after unsuccessfully challenging Netanyahu’s leadership in 2019. He has also served a variety of portfolios in the past including minister of education, interior and justice.

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Katz faces a steep learning curve to familiarise himself with numerous complex security challenges.

It has been speculated that removing Gallant is the first step for Netanyahu to dismiss the heads of the security establishment, placing them culpable for the October 7th attack and distancing the political echelon from the failure. Netanyahu has denied this claim.
The move adds further despair to the 101 hostage families now in captivity 397 days, who had held out hope for Minister Gallant leading efforts to conclude a deal

November 6, 2024

Netanyahu congratulates Trump on election

PM Netanyahu posted on X: “Dear Donald and Melania Trump, Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback! Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory! In true friendship, yours, Benjamin and Sara Netanyahu”

November 5, 2024

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant

Yisrael Katz has been appointed as Israel’s new Defence Minister

Gideon Saar has been offered the post of Foreign Minister

November 5, 2024

Israeli government approves budget but faces legislative challenges

The budget: Government ministers approved the budget for next year with the aim of sustaining the war effort, supporting reservists and their families and stimulating growth.

The budget will stand at NIS 607.4 billion, (approximately £125bn) alongside additional adjustments measures which total approximately NIS 37 billion (£7.6bn).
It includes a NIS 9 billion package (£1.85bn) to support the unprecedented number of 300,000 reservists.
In order to cover some of the costs and rein in a budget deficit of about 4.3 per cent, ministers approved a roughly NIS 40 billion package (£8.22bn) of tax hikes and spending cuts. This will include raising VAT from the current 17 per cent to 18 per cent.
The government has not yet published the full details of the hike of national insurance contributions, but it is expected to add between NIS 1,000 to NIS 2,000 (£205 – £410) a year in contributions to an average household.
However, benefits paid to the elderly, people with disabilities, Holocaust survivors and families of fallen soldiers will not be frozen as was proposed, except for child allowances.
Finance Minister Smotrich explained that the deficit is a result of the high cost of the country which has now been at war for over a year.
The budget makes cuts across several ministries including: health, agriculture, education, welfare and social affairs. Additionally, five government offices will be closed, although an announcement on which ones has not yet been made.
At Friday’s cabinet vote the budget passed 23 votes to 7 with four ministers from the prime minister’s Likud party, as well as the three from Jewish Power, voting against.
These included Likud Minster for Culture and Sports Miki Zohar and Environmental Protection Minister Idit Silman who opposed proposed cuts to their ministries. Jewish Power ministers Itamar Ben Gvir, Amichai Eliyahu, and Yitzhak Wasserlauf, also voted against the budget due to what they describe as harm to the security services.
Two more ministers, Yitzhak Goldknopf, (leader of United Torah Judaism – UTJ) and Gideon Saar (New Hope) did not participate in the vote.
Opposition leader Lapid criticised the government, saying that the budget will raise the expenses of every family in Israel while simultaneously handing out NIS 10 billion to unnecessary government offices.

Controversy over the daycare subsidies bill: The bill was recently submitted by the UTJ party in order to ease the criteria for daycare subsidies for ultra-Orthodox children.

The intention of the bill is to circumvent a decision earlier in the year by the attorney-general to block subsidies for children of yeshiva students where the father has refused to serve in the military. Instead it proposes criterion based exclusively on the mother’s employment, irrespective of whether the father works for a living.
The bill was proposed following a decision by ultra-Orthodox lawmakers to delay their demand for a new conscription law until after a vote on the budget. That decision followed widespread anger and resentment over the ultra-Orthodox demand to exempt their members from military service.
Despite Netanyahu’s openness to passing that day subsidies bill, and with a Knesset vote on it for a preliminary reading scheduled for Wednesday, several members of the coalition have announced their decision not to support it.
Opposition has been voiced by Likud MKs Defense Minister Gallant, Yuli Edelstein and Dan Illouz; Religious Zionism party MKs Ophir Sofer, Ohad Tal and Moshe Solomon; and Gideon Saar’s faction. In light of this, the bill is no longer expected to enjoy a majority with the balance in the Knesset now 57 for and 57 against.
Yesterday Saar, who recently joined Netanyahu’s coalition, explained the reasoning for his opposition. “The reservists have served, and are serving, an incomprehensible number of days on reserve duty over the past year. There have been deaths; soldiers have been wounded—physically and mentally. Their families are paying a high price, in terms of family dynamics and finances. At this moment, the government and the IDF must strive to carry out significant processes to increase participation in the responsibility and the privilege of serving from all sectors of the public. That is imperative.”
Sources inside UTJ said they “expect the prime minister to enforce discipline in the coalition ranks, with an emphasis on the Likud. If the daycare subsidy bill doesn’t pass on Wednesday, we will vote in accordance with our own decisions on every piece of legislation emerging from the ranks of the Likud.”
UTJ also hinted it may reconsider voting with the government on several bills. MK Yaakov Asher said, “If the Likud splits on the daycare subsidy bill and some members vote with the opposition in order to undermine ultra-Orthodox women’s employment, we also have a variety of views about the ratings bill [legislation that would give the government the authority to oversee television ratings], the public broadcasting corporation bill [legislation to increase government control over the Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation budget] and the Israel Bar Association [a reference to a key part of Justice Minister Yariv Levin’s judicial reform proposal]. The opposition also has good proposals that we can support. We have nothing to lose.”

Context: The Israeli economy registered a sharp slowdown due to the war. Factors include the high living costs, the mobilisation of army reservists, as well as the decline in productivity and reduction in exports.

According to the finance ministry, GDP growth for 2024 is estimated at 0.4 per cent, although it has revised expectations for 2025 and predicts growth of 4.3 per cent based on the assumption that the war’s intensity would continue for now, but fighting will end after the first quarter of 2025.
There remains tension between the defence and finance ministries. The defence budget currently represents 6.5 per cent of Israel’s GDP. According to Finance Minister Smotrich they still need to take into consideration the impact of the defence budget on other sectors, as economic growth and recovery will strengthen the security situation in Israel.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that, if necessary, the government will submit a ‘supplemental budget’ to cover the additional defence costs
As of now, the IDF has reportedly completed drafting the staff for the first ultra-Orthodox brigade, as well as establishing infrastructure for the induction of the brigade’s first unit next month.
Defence Minister Gallant has given his approval for an additional 7,000 draft orders to be sent to members of the ultra- Orthodox community. In the summer, during the first phase, 3,000 orders were sent but only around 300 showed up at induction centres.
The tension over ultra-Orthodox men not serving in the IDF has for many years caused tension in Israeli society. Yet over the past year – in which approximately 300,000 reservists have been called up since October 7 2023, 18 percent of whom were men over 40 who should have been exempted – this tension has increased.
There is significant opposition within religious Zionist circles (within which the Religious Zionism and Likud parties draw support from) to the continued exemption of the ultra-Orthodox).
At the same time, the ultra-Orthodox parties have been loyal and consistent members of Netanyahu’s coalition.

Looking ahead: The government will need to recalibrate its position on the subsidies bill and how this may affect the vote on the budget.

If it passes its first reading in the Knesset, the budget will subsequently be sent to the Knesset Finance Committee, which will prepare the final version for the second and third votes

November 4, 2024

Fighting continues amid political security scandal

Northern front: Dozens of rockets and missiles continue to target northern Israel, as the IDF continues its miliary campaign in Lebanon. On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the Lebanon border noting, “from here one can see and hear the changed reality.” Netanyahu said, “We are striking all areas in Lebanon. I would like to make it clear: with or without an agreement, the key to restoring the calm and security in the north, the key to returning our residents in the north safely to their homes, is – first of all – to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani. Second is to strike at any attempt to rearm itself. Third is to respond vigorously to any action against us. Simply put, enforcement, enforcement, enforcement – and cutting off Hezbollah’s pipeline from Iran through Syria. To all of this we are committed.” Over the weekend, IDF commandos carried out an unusual operation in the northern Lebanese coastal town of Batroun. Forces were able to enter from the sea and apprehend and extract a senior Hezbollah commander and transfer him back to Israel for questioning. In another rare announcement, the IDF confirmed that they also carried out an operation in southern Syria. According to the IDF the target was, “Ali Soleiman al-Assi, a Syrian citizen…. His activities included gathering intelligence on IDF troops in the border area for future terror activity of the network. Ali Soleiman al-Assi has been under IDF surveillance, was detained and transferred for interrogation in Israel.” The IDF also announced the elimination of two Hezbollah commanders in the area of Tyre. One was the commander of Hezbollah’s forces in the coastal sector, the second, Hezbollah’s artillery commander in the same sector. Between them they were responsible for launching more than 400 rocket and mortar projectiles just in the last month. This corresponds to roughly 10 per cent of total launches in this period.Elsewhere, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck the commander of Hezbollah’s Nasser Unit missiles and rockets array, as well as the commander of the drones array in the unit in Jouaiyya in southern Lebanon. They were responsible for multiple rocket attacks, including the attack in Majdal Shams, which killed 12 children and the rocket attack on Metula last Thursday, which resulted in the deaths of 5 civilians.The IAF also targeted and killed the Hezbollah commander of the Khiam area, along with a Radwan Forces commander. They were responsible for many anti-tank missile and rocket attacks. As part of the continued ground operation, the IDF announced, “troops located numerous weapons stored in both the kitchen and children’s room, including RPGs, rocket launchers, rockets, grenades, and AK-47 rifles. In the same civilian building, which was used as a weapons storage facility, a large cache of military tactical equipment, combat gear, and intelligence documents was found, used by Hezbollah operatives who had barricaded themselves in the building.”

The scandal: An investigation has been launched following suspicion that classified and sensitive intelligence information was taken from the IDF. After a court lifted a gag order, it is now permitted to report that Eli Feldstein, a spokesperson in the Prime Minister’s Office, is alleged to have taken intelligence material and leaked it to foreign media sources. The chief concern is that the information was liable to severely damage state security, endangered information sources and potentially undermined efforts to release the hostages. There is a further suspicion and allegations that the material was manipulated before being leaked.It is also being alleged that Feldstein failed his security clearance, but was still employed by the Director-General of the Prime Minister’s Office. Three other suspects from within the defence establishment were arrested. The remand of three of them was extended, and one was released. Although the prime minister has sought to distance himself from the case he faces increasing political pressure.For the first time in a year and half, Leader of the Opposition Lapid and his centrist rival MK Gantz held a joint press conference on Sunday night. Lapid said, “Netanyahu said in the past that he did not know that there was a problem on Mt. Meron, that he did not know about the submarines, that he did not know about the warnings before October 7, and now he says that he did not know what his bureau was doing at a time that Israel is at a war for its existence. Netanyahu’s line of defence is that he has no influence or control over the system that he heads. If that is true, he is unfit to lead the State of Israel in the most difficult war in its history.”Gantz said, “When we quit the government, I said that political considerations had infiltrated the holy of holies of Israel’s security. We warned of this in real time. We’ve reached the stage of the proof. If sensitive security information was stolen and became a tool in a campaign of political survival, this is not just a criminal offence, this is a national crime.”

Hopes for a ceasefire: There is cautious optimism that a ceasefire agreement in the north can be reached in the next couple of weeks.The broad parameters reinforcing previous agreements are understood to include the removal of Hezbollah south of Litani River and efforts preventing Hezbollah from re-arming. Israel would then gradually redeploy out of the Lebanon.There is added impetus as both presidential candidates (and President Biden) all support an end to the fighting.What remains is for Israel is to reach an understanding with international partners for legitimacy to act if / when Hezbollah violates the agreement by returning south or seeking to re-arm.

Iranian threat: Israel remains on high alert for an Iranian attack after Ayatollah Khamenei threatened Israel with “a crushing response.” There appears to be a consensus within the Iranian leadership, even among the ‘moderates’ over the need to respond, perhaps even stronger than the October 1st attack.It is anticipated that they will wait until after the US election, but before inauguration. The Iranians are concerned that an imminent response would help Trump in the election. Khamenei also hinted that their response may not necessarily be solely military, but could also include making advances towards nuclear proliferation

October 30, 2024

Cabinet to vote on budget today

What’s happening: Finance Minister Smotrich yesterday sent an outline of the 2025 budget ahead of a government meeting today to approve the budget.

The cabinet is expected to vote on the state budget today, however substantial disagreements remain, particularly over the size of next year’s defence budget.
The Ministry of Defence says it needs NIS 160 billion (£33.1bn), whereas the Finance Ministry says the defence needs can be met with NIS 110 billion (£22.76bn).
Part of this large discrepancy is based on different assessments over when the fighting will end in the north and south as well as the Iranian threat.
In general, the budget focuses on economic recovery from the war. According to the Finance Ministry, the direct cost of funding the war in Gaza from October 2023 through August 2024 was 100 billion shekels (approximately £20.7 billion).
The Bank of Israel estimates the total could rise to NIS 250 billion (£51.72bn) by the end of 2025, but that was before Israel’s incursion into Lebanon, which will add to this amount.
As a result, several ministries are facing substantial cuts including NIS 100 million (£20.70m) off the welfare ministry and NIS 133 million (£27.50m) off the education ministry.
The budget also includes cuts to the Transport and Road Safety Ministry’s development budget and Health Ministry budgets.
Smotrich is reportedly trying to cut NIS 40 billion (£8.27 billion). There could also be changes in the income tax brackets and tax credit points, and some national insurance payments will be frozen.
Responding to concerns that some of the cuts will harm Israel’s most vulnerable, Smotrich said that the ministry will identify those who are significantly harmed by the stipend freezes.
Ultra-Orthodox parties have, until recently, insisted on a bill to exempt full-time Yeshiva (religious seminary) students from military service before supporting the budget.
However, facing widespread anger and resentment both from the secular public and parts of the national-religious community (which has lost a disproportionate number of soldiers over the course of the war) ultra-Orthodox leaders in the Knesset agreed to delay their demand for a new conscription law until after this week’s budget vote.
Instead, by way of compensation, the United Torah Judaism party submitted a bill to ease the criteria for daycare subsidies for ultra-Orthodox children. The bill seeks to circumvent a decision earlier in the year by the attorney-general to block subsidies for children of yeshiva students where the father has refused to serve in the military.
Addressing the budgetary issue that affects the ultra-Orthodox community, Smotrich acknowledged that there are social implications but refrained from committing to supporting financial sanctions to discourage this situation from continuing.

Context: The discussions over the budget and the ultra-Orthodox demand for a formal exemption from army service comes as the IDF predicts it needs greater manpower. Over the next two years, IDF reservists will continue to serve for longer periods of time.

Some 300,000 reservists have been called up since the Hamas attack of October 7th 2023, 18 percent of whom were men over 40 who should have been exempted.
The IDF plans to increase the number of soldiers who will protect the north and the south from Hamas or Hezbollah in a scenario where they try to attack these areas in the future and to provide a better sense of security for the civilian residents.
The IDF is also preparing for a scenario that, even if a ceasefire is agreed, the IDF will seek to maintain their freedom to respond to anticipated Hezbollah violations of any agreement.
A group of reservists recently sent a letter to IDF Chief of Staff Halevi asking to share the burden with members of the ultra-Orthodox community.
In a hospital visit to an ultra-orthodox wounded soldier, Halevi talked about the important of ultra-Orthodox Jews serving, saying, “This is what’s right socially, and I think that when we manage to grow from this… from realising the need for a larger IDF, it could also bring a very positive social change.”
Halevi added that, “more soldiers are needed for the conscripted army and IDF reserves.”

Looking ahead: Once the cabinet approves the budget, it is then voted on in the Knesset.

Netanyahu and Smotrich have stated their intention to pass the budget by the end of 2024. With the coalition now with 68 seats, as long as the ultra-Orthodox parties are on board there is no reason why the budget should encounter difficulties. The final deadline to pass the budget is March 31st, which would result in the government’s collapse and early elections.

IDF Recruitment – Background

In 1948, David Ben Gurion struck a deal with the ultra-Orthodox community to exempt from service a capped number whose full-time occupation was Torah study. At the time, the principle that ‘Torah study is a vocation’ was never enshrined in law, but rather in a Defence Ministry regulation. Given the much smaller ultra-Orthodox population, the exemption applied only to 400 Yeshiva students.
With the election of Menachem Begin as Prime Minister in 1977, the cap was removed and all Yeshiva students were able to avail themselves of the exemption.
In the late 1990s, the Supreme Court began a series of interventions on the issue. In a 1998 ruling Rubinstein v. The Minister of Defence, the court, under the leadership of Aharon Barak, ruled that exemption was discriminatory and violated the principle of equality. It subsequently ordered that suitable legislation be explored to remedy the status quo. In 2012, the Court similarly ruled unconstitutional the Tal Law, the first attempt at a legislative solution which, although designed to encourage greater ultra-Orthodox participation, left the process largely voluntary, resulting in ongoing low rates of service.
The 2013 Netanyahu government – which did not comprise ultra-Orthodox parties – passed legislation requiring an annually increasing percentage of ultra-Orthodox men to be drafted. This was encouraged by coalition partners Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Between 2012-14, partly as a result of reduced budgets, the amount of ultra-Orthodox students studying in Yeshiva declined by 8 per cent.
The 2015 ultra-Orthodox parties return to power led to new legislation undercutting the previous policy, which in turn was once again struck down by the court. An increase in budgets for yeshiva students led to 10 per cent increase in the number of students. In 2017, the court ruled the new legislation unconstitutional and demanded the government make changes that respect the principle of equality.
During the Bennett-Lapid government, Defence Minister Gantz succeeded in passing, on a first reading, a bill lowering the age of exemption to 21. The bill, whose progress collapsed along with the government, also provided for the eventual drafting of the majority of the ultra-Orthodox into the IDF, with the quota for those obliged to serve rising each year.
In 2022, when the coalition was formed, Netanyahu agreed to pass a new law on conscription that would have met ultra-Orthodox demands, but it has been repeatedly delayed, first in a battle over the justice system and later over the war.
In June 2024, the High Court ruled the state must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students, and the military said it would recruit about 3,000 ultra-Orthodox a year

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