Israeli politics & society

Updated March 27, 2025

New President of Israel’s supreme court sworn in

What’s happened: Yesterday, following his election in January, Justice Isaac Amit was sworn in as President of Israel’s Supreme Court. It is the first time that the position has been filled permanently in seventeen months.

While attended by President Herzog, Amit’s inauguration was notably boycotted by the whole of the Israeli cabinet, including the prime minister and justice minister.
Justice Minister Yariv Levin’s boycotting of the ceremony underscores how opposed he has been to Amit’s appointment at every possible step in the process.
Speaking at his appointment, Amit stressed the importance of the judiciary’s independence stating that it is “an essential component in the tripartite system of government… It does not stand above the other branches but operates alongside them, as an equal partner in the democratic framework of checks and balances. The role of the judiciary in this framework is to uphold the rule of law and protect individual rights from unlawful harm, whether from other individuals or from the government.”
Amit also asserted his view of Israel’s courts as “a public trustee…[which is] loyal to the public – and to the public alone.” This further underscores the strong divide between the judicial and executive branches of government.
President Herzog called on both sides of the divide to move towards compromise and reconciliation, to reach a “national spirit of goodwill—an era of outreach, moderation, and broad consensus-building.”
This was needed “especially today,” Herzog continued, “as the voices of our captive sisters and brothers cry out to us from beneath the ground in Gaza, and we remain deeply concerned for their fate—the people of Israel look to the leadership of the three branches of government, yearning to see their leaders working shoulder to shoulder despite their differences.”
He also added more criticism of the government boycotting the proceedings, explicitly stating that there was “no place” in a democracy for different branches of a government to shun each other.

Context: The unprecedented boycotting of the ceremony is a stark reminder of the chasm between the governing coalition and the judiciary.

This is the first time the role has been filled since October 2023, when the outgoing Chief Justice, Esther Hayut, retired. Levin refrained from appointing her replacement, and it took almost a year until the High Court ruled that he did not have the authority to postpone the position indefinitely, eventually leading to Amit’s election last month.
While the judiciary sees this is as a strengthening of the rule of law, their independence, and the separation of powers, the coalition view this as a tyranny of unelected minority of elites.
The ceremony is a symbolic victory for the legal establishment, but the appointment could also provoke the coalition to renew their efforts to reform the system.
The only legislation from the package of reforms proposed by Justice Minister Levin to pass parliament was the cancellation of the “reasonableness clause” in July 2023, which the Supreme Court eventually struck down.
The controversial judicial reform package was frozen to accommodate the entry of Benny Gantz’s party into the coalition four days after the 7th October attacks. With Gantz’s departure from the coalition last June, Levin no longer saw himself as being bound by that commitment.
One of the most contentious aspect of Levin’s proposed reforms involved the Judicial Appointments Committee. Levin and his supporters argued that the current makeup gave an outsized influence to serving judges and, in effect, was perpetuating a liberal and activist majority on the Court.
Opponents of Levin’s reforms argued that it would put too much power in the hands of the governing majority, rendering the Court a rubber stamp for the government rather than a vital check on its power. Currently, the Committee is comprised of two Ministers of Government, two Members of Knesset, three judges, and two representatives of the Israeli Bar Association. It requires a supermajority of seven members out of nine to appoint a Supreme Court Justice.
Months after Gantz’s departure from the coalition and war cabinet in June 2024, Gidon Saar broke off from Gantz and rejoined the coalition. He and Levin announced a compromise proposal for reforming the Judicial Appointments Committee in January that would eliminate the two Bar Association representatives and replace them with one MK from the coalition and one from the opposition.
Their reform would also eliminate the supermajority requirement for Supreme Court appointments. While a far cry from the far-reaching reforms that Levin initially sought two years ago, this compromise would still weaken the weight of “professional” (that is, non-political) actors in the Committee and leave the Court more sensitive to the political majority of the day. The compromise proposal has not been advanced to a vote, and has been criticised by the government’s Attorney General.
Over more than a year of this impasse over appointments and reforms to the appointment process, the Court functioned without a Chief Justice. Ultimately, the Committee met, without Levin, and picked a Chief Justice with the method that has been in use until now – namely by seniority.
A result of this disagreement has included the inability to replace two retiring Supreme Court justices leaving their positions vacant. There has also been a knock-on effect with numerous appointments in lower courts remaining unfilled, causing significant delays to legal proceedings across the country.
The constitutional crisis that tore Israel apart in the months before 7th October could now be back on the political agenda, just as the war takes a pause, the Knesset heads toward a possible dissolution, and Prime Minister Netanyahu is forced to make time each week testifying in his criminal trial.

Looking ahead: Regarding the hostage deal, Hamas has confirmed that it intends to release three Israeli hostages tomorrow, with their names expected to be released later today.

January 20, 2025

Mandy Damari releases statement

“Yesterday, I was finally able to give Emily the hug that I have been dreaming of. From the bottom of my heart I would like to thank the many people who have played a role in bringing Emily home and given their support to me and my family. As I said over the course of the campaign, you are all Emily’s family.

I am relieved to report that after her release, Emily is doing much better than any of us could ever have anticipated. I am also happy that during her release the world was given a glimpse of her feisty and charismatic personality.

In Emily’s own words, she is the happiest girl in the world; she has her life back. In this incredibly happy moment for our family, we must also remember that 94 other hostages still remain. The ceasefire must continue and every last hostage must be returned to their families.

As wonderful as it is to see Emily’s resilience, these are still early days. As you will have seen yesterday, Emily lost two of the fingers on her left hand. She now needs time with her loved ones and her doctors as she begins her road to recovery.”

December 18, 2024

Netanyahu visits Syrian Hermon

18/12/24

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu has visited the Syrian side of Mount Hermon with the Defence Minister, IDF Chief of Staff and other senior defence officials.

Standing on the mountain, Netanyahu reiterated the importance of staying there “until another arrangement can be found that guarantees Israel’s security,” while invoking his last visit there 53 years earlier as a young special-forces officer.
Defence Minister Katz said that Israel “will remain here for as long as it is needed…Our presence here at the peak of the Hermon strengthens security and adds a dimension of both observation and deterrence to Hezbollah’s strongholds in the Beqaa Valley in Lebanon and deterrence against the rebels in Damascus, who pretend to present a moderate image, but belong to the most extreme Islamic sects.”
In an interview with The Times published on Monday, Ahmed al-Sharaa (better known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani) stressed his commitment to the 1974 agreement with Israel that established a demilitarised zone on Syrian territory after the Yom Kippur War, stated that he did not want a conflict with Israel or anyone else, and would not allow Syria to be used as a “launchpad for attacks.”
However, he also called for Israel to withdraw from the buffer zone and criticised its recent airstrikes on former Syrian regime military hardware, suggesting that while it previously had a right to target Iranian backed militias, it no longer had any legitimacy to operate within Syria.
Despite appearing not to directly threaten Israel at this point, the rebels remain a significant cause of concern in Jerusalem given their historic extremism and links to Al Qaeda.

Context: Given the speed of the rebel takeover, it remains unclear how Syria’s future may evolve and how this will impact on Israel.

The IDF entered the high ground in the 155-square-mile buffer zone in Syria just over a week ago, after the Assad regime collapsed to ensure rebels did not take over the area that offers a commanding view of strategically sensitive territory and is in close proximity to Israeli communities.
That buffer zone was created in the aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria. Since then, it has been Israel’s quietest border.
While it is almost certainly too early for the post-Assad Syria to formulate a cogent policy towards Israel, early indications suggest a pragmatic and non-confrontational approach is being taken.
Israel’s response to developments in Syria is indicative of a position that views Islamists (both Sunni and Shia) on Israel’s borders as a potential serious security threat.
While the mainstream view in Israel is that the collapse of the Assad regime was precipitated by Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah and the weakening of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, it nevertheless empowered Islamist Turkey which will likely have increased influence in the post-Assad Syria.
Last month Shin Bet Chief, Ronen Bar visited Turkey, Israeli media reports have suggested the visit was prompted by concerns about Turkish weaponry being smuggled into the West Bank, and a significant network of pro-Hamas charities freely able to fundraise for the terrorist group.
Israel is also aware of fears among Syria’s Kurdish and Druze minority populations for their own future in a post-Assad Syria, and is closely monitoring the situation. Shortly before taking office, Israel’s new Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, had indicated that alliances with Middle Eastern minorities including Druze and Kurds should be formed, and that these efforts should be pursued alongside a normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia.
One Likud MK has proposed an international conference “to rearrange the international borders in Syria with its neighbours” and requested that Prime Minister Netanyahu considers dividing the country into a number of cantons. Such a proposal does not represent Israeli government policy.
Last week, Israel estimated that they had destroyed 80 per cent of the Syrian military in the largest operation the IDF had even launched. Most of what remains is considered obsolete and not worth wasting munitions in destroying.

Looking ahead: Israel will continue to closely monitor the developing situation in Syria, primarily with a view towards guaranteeing its own security, preventing a build-up of adjacent hostile forces, and ensuring the protection of communities in the Golan Heights and adjoining Galilee.

December 16, 2024

Israel clarifies position on Syria

16/12/24

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to President-elect Trump on Sunday. Following the call he issued a statement noting, “We have no interest in a conflict with Syria. We will determine Israeli policy regarding Syria according to the reality on the ground.”

IDF Chief of Staff Halevi struck a similar tone when he visited Northern Command saying, “We are here to defend along the border in the Golan Heights, northern Golan Heights, and Mount Hermon. There was a country here that was an enemy state, its army collapsed, and there is a threat that terrorist elements could reach here. We moved forward so that these terrorist elements will not establish themselves… right next to the border. We are not intervening in what is happening in Syria. We have no intention of managing Syria. We are unequivocally intervening in what determines the security of Israeli citizens here, behind us in the communities of the Golan Heights, and we are doing that professionally and correctly, and we are doing it with determination.”
The statement followed comments over the weekend by the Syrian rebel leader, Jolani, who recognised that Israel formerly had the excuse of Iran’s presence in Syria to attack it, but that reason was “now over,” adding: “After the Iranian’s departure, there isn’t any reason for any intervention in Syria. In Syria’s condition, we aren’t about to enter into any conflict, and we are in contact with the international community.”
Jolani added, “There are a lot of things behind the scenes of the war that will be revealed in the future. What happened wasn’t a coincidence; rather, we had planned for that for years. We have a plan for dealing with all the crises in Syria. We are at the information-collecting stage, and we have plans and readiness for Syria’s construction and development.”
Meanwhile, over the weekend Israel continued to destroy what was left of advanced Syrian military hardware. Arab media reported a series of attacks against military targets, including military headquarters, radars, and weapons storage sites.
Syrian media reported that the IDF attacked outside Tartus on the Mediterranean coast. The attack appears to have targeted arms storerooms, and produced a powerful explosion.
According to the Russian news agency, Sputnik, the Israeli Air Force carried out 52 sorties on Saturday night across Syria within the space of four hours.

Context: The sudden fall of Assad’s regime has Syria has dramatically changed the strategic position between Israel and Iran, with significant repercussions felt across the region.

Last week, Israel estimated that they had destroyed 80 per cent of the Syrian military in the largest operation the IDF had even launched. Most of what remains is considered obsolete and not worth wasting munitions in destroying.
With Hezbollah defeated, Assad toppled, the Iranian doctrine of surrounding Israel with a ring of fire has collapsed.
The Iranians now face a choice if they wish to retain a belligerent and aggressive posture. They could choose to ramp up their efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. Or they could seek to reach an agreement with the US over limiting their enrichment or face further economic sanctions.
Hezbollah leader Qassem also admitted over the weekend that they have now lost their supply line from Iran.
Following the success of the rebels in Syria there is concern that it could spread, both to Jordan and the West Bank.
Over the weekend head of the Shin Bet Bar and head of IDF Intelligence Maj. Gen. Binder visited Jordan and met with senior officials, presumably amid concerns that the unrest in Syria might produce similar developments in Jordan.
Israel is concerned both for Jordan’s stability and the potential for Iran to increase efforts to smuggle weapons via Jordan into the West Bank.
In parallel the Palestinian Authority (PA) Security Forces have stepped up operations against terror infrastructure in Jenin. This is understood at both curbing any moves that could challenge the PA and also position them as potential partners in governing Gaza after the war is over.
Jolani’s comments (above) can be interpreted two ways. They could be a warning to Israel that they will seek to open hostilities in the future or an informal understanding of non-belligerence.
Israel reports suggest the latest call between Netanyahu and Trump was particularly warm and friendly, as Netanyahu hopes they will be closely coordinated on the Iranian threat and a potential hostage deal.
Netanyahu apparently appealed to Trump to increase the pressure so that more hostages will be included in the deal.
The call further highlighted the importance of coordination and continuity. Any potential agreement secured by the Biden team will need to be implemented by Trump’s.
In line with the understandings reached with President Biden, the IDF continues its low intensity campaign to challenge Hezbollah violations in southern Lebanon.

Looking ahead: The losses of Iranian axis has also isolated Hamas making them potentially more susceptible to agree a deal to release the hostages.

While the details have not been revealed, there remains hope that an agreement including a temporary ceasefire can be reached in the weeks ahead.

December 11, 2024

Israel claims 80% of Syrian military’s equipment destroyed

11/12/24

What’s happened: in the past 48 hours, Israeli strikes across Syria have destroyed up to 80% of the country’s strategic military equipment in a bid to prevent it from falling into hostile hands.

In a statement yesterday, the IDF confirmed that it had conducted over 350 strikes in Syria against what it is describing as “strategic targets” in Operation Bashan Arrow.
These targets included two Syrian naval ports at Latakia and Al-Bayda, sea-to-sea missiles with ranges of 80-190km, anti-aircraft batteries, weapons production sites, Scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, tanks, electronic warfare systems, intelligence bases and hangars. The Israel Navy also destroyed approximately 15 missile boats and approximately 20 coast guard vessels, minelayers and landing ships that were in Syrian possession.
The Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Centre in Damascus, which was considered a cover for the development and production of chemical weapons, missiles and rockets – and which more recently helped Hezbollah to improve the precision of its rockets – was also destroyed.
Speaking after the attacks, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that while Israel would seek to establish relations with the post-Assad regime Syria and not interfere in its internal affairs, “we certainly do intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security” in a confirmation that it would not hesitate to defend itself.
The Prime Minister added “if this regime allows Iran to reestablish itself in Syria, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or attacks us, we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it…What happened to the previous regime will also happen to this regime.”
While Bashan Arrow was being completed, the Israeli Army continued its takeover of the 1974 Syrian buffer zone and now controls the entirety of Mount Hermon.
The UN has criticised Israel’s actions in the buffer zone, and accused it of violating the 1974 Syria disengagement deal.
Syrian sources have alleged that Israeli forces are operating outside of the buffer zone and approaching Damascus, which the IDF has strenuously denied. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and the Arab League also criticised the Israeli move.
Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Mohammed al-Bashir who previously led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) de facto rebel government in Idlib province, has been appointed as Syria’s caretaker Prime Minister until 1st March 2025.
Speaking to Al Jazeera afterwards, al-Bashir confirmed that efforts were being made include previous government members in any transition arrangements “in order to facilitate all the necessary works for the next two months until we have a constitutional system to be able to serve the Syrian people.”
Prime Minister Starmer has confirmed that no decision has been made yet on whether or not HTS will be removed from the Home Office’s list of banned organisations, and that it was “far too early” to consider a policy change, despite one of his Cabinet members earlier telling the BBC that this was a possibility.
The UN and US are also both reportedly considering delisting HTS as a terrorist group on the condition that it renounces terror, takes meaningful steps towards forming an inclusive government, and protects minorities.

Context: The destruction of the Syrian army’s main capabilities is the largest military operation the IDF has ever undertaken, and one the IDF had not prepared in advance.

It was based on the logic that Syria possessed significant capabilities that could pose a threat were they to fall into irresponsible hands.
Destroying the Syrian army’s capabilities was not previously carried out during the civil war so as to not be seen as Israel declaring war on the Assad regime, as well as due to the fear upsetting the Russians.
Before Assad’s fall, the Syrian military possessed 30 MiG 29 fighter jets, about 150 MiG 21, MiG 23 and Sukhoi 22 fighter jets, as well as 18 mid-range Sukhoi 24 bomber aircraft, half of which were thought to be still usable. The Syrian regime also possessed about 50 Mi-17 troop transportation aircraft, about 30 Mi-24 helicopter gunships and French-made Gazelle helicopters.
Of bigger concern to Israel was Syria’s air defence systems. These included more than 100 SA-5 and S300 long range batteries, mobile BUK-M1/2 and Pantsir missiles and other models. In 2021, one of the SA-5F batteries successfully downed an IAF F-16.
The collapse of the Assad regime is widely understood in Israel as a second order effect of the catastrophic weakening of Iran’s Axis of Resistance following Hezbollah’s recent defeat in southern Lebanon and Russia’s preoccupation with war in Ukraine.
Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria 2011-2015, before the Russian intervention – had acted as a regime survival guarantor. Yet following the recent war with Israel, Hezbollah was in no position to deploy to Syria and hold off the recent rebel offensive in any meaningful way.
Similarly, Russia also lacked the resources to significantly support Assad as it did from 2015 until its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
While Yahya Sinwar had hoped that last year’s 7th October attacks would catalyse a regional upheaval against Israel, the opposite has in fact proven true: Hamas has functionally been removed from governing the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has been decimated with much of its leadership assassinated and weaponry destroyed; Iran’s client regime in Syria has been overthrown; and almost the entirety of Iran’s air defence systems has been neutralised.
The 235-square-kilometre demilitarised buffer zone was established as part of the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria. Since then it has been by UN peacekeepers, UNDOF. Israel argues that following the fall of the Assad regime, it considers the agreement void.

Hostage negotiations: The IDF and Shin Bet’s leadership have joined discussions in Cairo aimed at securing a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza that would ultimately lead to the release of hostages captured on 7th October 2023.

Ronen Bar and Herzi Halevi met with senior Egyptian officials following an assessment that the chances of reaching an agreement with Hamas had increased.
Although Hamas has not given any publication indication as to its current views on whether or not it is open to a ceasefire and releasing hostages, Israeli officials believe this may be the case and there may be a chance to reach a deal in the month-long run up before President-elect Trump’s inauguration.

December 9, 2024

Israel moves into demilitarised zone on Golan as Assad regime collapses

09/12/24

What’s happened: Syrian rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and backed by Turkey announced that they had captured Damascus and the Baathist regime led by Bashar al-Assad had fallen.

Assad is reported to have fled Syria with his family, and is understood to have been granted asylum in Russia.
The former Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, has said that the government was ready to “extend its hand” and turn its functions over to a transitionary administration. He has also called for free elections and confirmed he is in contact with rebel leaders.
In a statement read out on TV, the head of HTS and the de-facto leader of the rebel forces, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, declared “the future is ours” and said “there is no room for turning back”. The Syrian opposition coalition has also confirmed that it is working towards forming a transitional governing body with full executive powers, and has ambitions to form both global and regional partnerships.
President Biden said the fall of the Assad’s regime “is a direct result of the blows that Ukraine and Israel have delivered against Russia, Hamas, and Hezbollah with unflagging support from the United States.” Biden added that there was a historic opportunity to build a better future in Syria, but cautioned it was also a moment of risk and uncertainty in the region. US Central Command said the US military had struck more than 75 ISIS targets in the country to prevent the terrorist group from taking advantage of the situation there.
Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Separation of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syria – signed after the Yom Kippur War – had collapsed, and Israel deployed troops to the buffer zone on the Syrian border to guarantee the security of communities in the Golan Heights. Israel also conducted several airstrikes on ammunition and weapons depots across Syria – including those connected to chemical weapons – to destroy equipment it fears may fall into hostile hands.
Referring to the collapse of the Assad regime, Netanyahu said: “This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East. The Assad regime – a central link in Iran’s axis of evil – has fallen.”
Prime Minister Starmer, has welcomed the collapse of the regime while calling for “peace and stability” in the country and rejecting terrorism. The PM said the collapse of Assad’s regime marked a positive change for the Syrian people and that the way of tackling problems of terrorism and restoring security is through a political solution which the UK will be engaged with. Foreign Secretary Lammy also called for the protection of minorities while reiterating how “Syrians deserve an inclusive political transition and a pathway to peace and security.”
Despite being a longstanding patron of the Assad regime, Iran has responded cooly with a statement from their foreign ministry saying “the relations between the two nations of Iran and Syria have a long history and have always been friendly, and it is expected that these relations will continue”.

Context: The Assad family has been in control of Syria for over half a century and has been in a perpetual state of conflict with Israel. However, since the cessation of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the armistice agreement the following year it has been one of Israel’s quietest borders.

In recent years, Syria has been a central component of Iran’s circle of fire, surrounding Israel with hostile entities and crucially serving as an overland link to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran has also used Syrian territory to develop and store advanced weapons systems destined both for Hezbollah but Iranian militias inside Syria.
The timing of the rebel offensive and the speed of the Syrian army collapse has been widely credited to Israel’s success in dismantling Hezbollah’s military capacity. With Russia predisposed with its war in Ukraine, the Syrian army was left isolated with the rebels taking full advantage.
This marks the first time since the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement was signed that Israeli forces have taken up positions inside the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, albeit having briefly entered on several other occasions.
Israel’s top priority is to defend civilian communities living on the Golan Heights in close vicinity to the border and to prevent rebels from threatening the Israeli border. The first area the troops entered on Saturday was around the Druze village of Hader in an effort to assist UN forces to repel an attack.
Hader is considered the sister village of Majdal Shams (which is located on the Israeli side of the Golan) with close familial bonds between the two.
In recent months Israel has dug deep anti-tank ditches along the Syrian border to prevent an invasion by pick-up trucks similar to those used by Hamas on October 7th.
Israel’s second priority is to prevent advanced weapons systems from falling into the hands of the rebels. Since the middle of last week, Israel has been carrying out a series of strikes against strategic weapons facilities held by the Assad regime.
Syria formerly possessed the largest arsenal of chemical weapons in the world. While most of that arsenal was removed from Syrian territory, it is thought likely to still possess capabilities (and know-how).
Despite disaffiliating from Al Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains proscribed in the UK with Home Office guidance stipulating that it “should be treated as alternative names for the organisation which is already proscribed under the name Al Qa’ida” (sic). This will likely pose significant challenges to the Labour government given HTS’s leading role in the current rebel coalition.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Starmer visits the Gulf countries this week, aiming to strengthen the trade and defence partnerships between the UK and the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are the ‘most vital modern-day partners’. He will also be discussing the new leadership in Syria and the opportunity to create change.

With Iran reeling from the collapse of its regional proxies there is heightened concern that Iran could increase its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

November 7, 2024

New military deal – F15s

Israel’s Ministry of Defence yesterday signed “a landmark transaction to acquire the next generation of F-15 fighter jets, purchasing 25 advanced aircraft from Boeing.”

According to the MOD, “The $5.2 billion (£4bn) agreement, part of a broader package of US aid approved by the US Administration and Congress earlier this year, includes an option for 25 additional aircraft.”
“The new F-15IA aircraft will be equipped with cutting-edge weapon systems, including the integration of state of the art Israeli technologies. The upgraded aircraft will feature enhanced range capabilities, increased payload capacity, and improved performance across various operational scenarios. These advantages will enable the Israeli Air Force to maintain its strategic superiority in addressing current and future challenges in the Middle East.”
However, “delivery of the F-15 aircraft will begin in 2031, with 4-6 aircraft to be supplied annually.”

November 7, 2024

Israeli leaders congratulate Trump

Congratulations: Even prior to the formal announcement of the President-elect’s victory, Prime Minister Netanyahu sent a congratulatory message, saying that Trump’s “historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

Last night, Trump and Netanyahu spoke over the phone. The two leaders agreed to work together for Israel’s security and discussed the Iranian threat.
Leader of the Opposition Lapid congratulated Trump on X writing, “You have shown yourself time and again to be a true friend of Israel. I know that with your leadership we will continue to strengthen and deepen the unique bond that exists between our two countries and expand the circle of peace in the Middle East. These are challenging times for Israel but with the ironclad support of the United States and strong leadership we can overcome them all. For the people of Israel there is no task more urgent than bringing our hostages home from Gaza.”
President Herzog said, “You are a true and dear friend of Israel, and a champion of peace and cooperation in our region. I look forward to working with you to strengthen the ironclad bond between our peoples, to build a future of peace and security for the Middle East, and to uphold our shared values.”
National Unity Party leader MK Benny Gantz, noted Trump’s past achievements and added, “Against the backdrop of emboldened Iranian aggression in this region, its race to nuclear capabilities, and the paramount efforts to return the hostages home, President Trump’s leadership will not only ensure the US continues to be a special friend and ally to the State of Israel but a vital beacon of moral clarity to the Middle East and the world.”
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas also congratulated Trump on his victory, expressing confidence he will support Palestinian’s aspirations for statehood.

Trump’s recent comments: President Elect Trump has consistently claimed to be a great friend of Israel.

On September 5^th he posted on his social media Truth 4.83 million followers that (in caps) “NO PRESIDENT HAS DEFENDED ISRAEL AND JEWISH AMERICANS MORE THAN DONALD J. TRUMP.”
In a short clip summarising his achievements, Trump mentioned:
- Declaring Jerusalem as the true capital of Israel;
- The US leaving the JCPOA nuclear accords with Iran;
- Imposing sanctions on Iran aimed at curbing their nuclear ambitions;
- Brokering and signing of the Abraham Accords.
At the same time, foreign policy including the Middle East is not a leading issue in American politics and the official 2024 Republican Party Platform says little about the region aside from “standing with Israel” and “restoring peace in the Middle East.”
Speaking at the Republican Jewish Coalition on September 5^th, Trump asserted that the Biden-Harris administration “sought to cast blame for these [Palestinian] deaths on Israel,” and that “the October 7^th attack on Israel would never have happened if he was President”. That sentiment was repeated during his September 10^th presidential debate against Harris.
In July 2024, Trump reportedly told Netanyahu “do what you have to do” and “finish up the war” but warned Netanyahu that Israel’s public relations have taken a hit due to the graphic videos of death and destruction that have come out of Gaza.

Israeli media initial assessments: Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Ron Ben Yishai recommends caution about the Trump administration. He highlights the fact that Trump’s son in law Jared Kushner will not be joining Trump in the White House, adding that that should concern Israel.

Israeli officials say that Netanyahu has been asked to leave Trump with a “clean” slate before he enters the Oval Office. To accomplish that, Netanyahu is going to have to learn how to make decisions at “Trump” speed, instead of continuing to juggle balls in the air.
On Channel 12 News, Ofer Hadad argues that while Biden or the Democratic Party didn’t like to break the rules, Trump doesn’t have any rules. For example, if Trump decides to stop the war or take any other step as part of his foreign policy, he will run over anyone who stands in his way, including Israel.
In an interview to Maariv today, Dr. Shay Har-Zvi from Reichman University, says that despite Trump’s policy of ‘America First’, the US would not be able to disengage from the Middle East and Israel could be under pressure to bring the war to an end.
He explains that Trump wishes that the war in the Middle East would come to an end before he enters the White House on January 20^th. In his victory speech Trump declared that he doesn’t wish to start wars. His main motivation is to focus on the significant challenge of the US in the international arena, as far as he concerned – the Chinese threat on the US dominancy and economy.
Har- Zvi emphasises the three main targets on Trump’s likely Middle East agenda: ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon which will secure the return of the hostages, advancing normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, and dealing with Iran’s nuclear threat. To enhance the normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu will have to show that he is willing to give the Palestinian diplomatic horizon.
Relating to Iran, Iranian expert Beni Sabti told Maariv that Trump will not continue working on Iran nuclear deal as it is now. The new administration might present new demands in three areas: the level of uranium enrichment, inspection on nuclear facilities and limitations on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Meanwhile Iranian government spokesperson, Fatemeh Mohajerani, said that the result would have little impact on Iran as “more than five decades of sanctions have toughened Iran.”
Maariv reports that Saudi Arabia has proposed opening an Israeli liaison office in Riyadh. The proposal was presented on the heels of the Euro-Muslim conference that was recently held to discuss the issue with the formal purpose of the office to coordinate the establishment of a Palestinian state.

November 6, 2024

Netanyahu fires Defence Minister Gallant

Statement by Prime Minister Netanyahu: In a surprise announcement on Tuesday night, Netanyahu fired Defence Minister Gallant. Netanyahu spoke of the necessity of “complete trust” being required between the prime minister and the defence minister.

Adding, “Unfortunately, even though such trust was present during the first months of the military campaign, and we had a very productive cooperation, during the past several months this trust between myself and the Defence Minister has begun to crack.”
“Defence Minister Gallant and I had substantial disagreements on the management of the military campaign, disagreements which were accompanied by public statements and actions that contravened the decisions of the Government and the Security Cabinet.”
“I have made multiple attempts to resolve these disagreements, but they became increasingly wider. They were also brought to the knowledge of the public in an inappropriate manner, and what is even worse, they have reached the knowledge of the enemy; our enemies have taken great delight in these disagreements and have derived much benefit from them.”
“The increasingly wide crisis of confidence between myself and the Defence Minister had become public knowledge, and that crisis is hindering the continued proper administration of the military campaign.”
Gallant will be replaced by Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz who, in turn, would be replaced by Gideon Saar.

Gallant statement: Gallant struck a dignified tone. He outlined the military achievements he oversaw across multiple fronts adding, “The security of the State of Israel has been, and always will be my life’s mission, and I am committed to this.”

He continued, “my removal from office is the result of disagreements on three issues:
- “The first, my steadfast position that every individual at the age of recruitment, must be recruited for service in the IDF and must defend the State of Israel. This is not just another minor social issue, this is a central issue to our existence, to the security of the State of Israel and the Jewish nation. During this war we have lost hundreds of soldiers and thousands have been wounded…. In this context there is no choice – everyone must serve in the IDF, and participate in the mission of defending the State of Israel.”
- “The second issue – It is our moral obligation and responsibility to ensure the return of our boys and girls held hostage, as soon as possible and to bring them back alive, to their families and homes.”
- The third issue – We must learn lessons and draw conclusions following a thorough investigation of events….there is only one way: the establishment of a state commission of inquiry.”
He added, “there are still significant challenges ahead of us, in facing Iran and its proxies in the region. Israel’s defence establishment is strong, we are striking our enemies sand defeating them. However, the war is not over, and unfortunately we will be required to face our enemies for many years ahead.”

Other responses: Leader of the opposition Lapid called the decision “an act of madness.”

Adding, “Netanyahu is selling Israel’s security and the IDF’s fighters for contemptible political survival. The fully right-wing government prioritises draft-dodgers over those who serve.”
Leader of the Democrats Yair Golan also called on the public to “head into the streets.”
Tens of thousands of people demonstrated last night in several locations throughout Israel to protest the decision. In Tel Aviv, the Ayalon Highway was blocked for a few hours and large bonfires were lit. Roughly 40 demonstrators were arrested. In Jerusalem, a demonstration was held near the prime minister’s residence and demonstrators marched in the direction of the Knesset.
President Herzog wrote on X, “The last thing the State of Israel needs now is upheaval and a rift in the middle of a war. The State of Israel’s security must be above every consideration. One hundred and one hostages are in enemy captivity this evening as well. Thousands of daughters and sons of bereaved families are mourning their world that was destroyed. Many reservists are carrying the burden of defending the people and the homeland and are crying out along with their families.”
Former prime minister Bennett said, “We have an insane and sick leadership that has lost any connection to what is important to the State of Israel and is acting against Israel and against the soldiers. Change is on the way. It will come. We will organise Israel from within.”
Whist National Security Minister Ben Gvir welcomed the move, writing: “I congratulate the prime minister for his decision to fire Gallant. With Gallant, who is still deeply beholden to the preconception, we can’t reach total victory—and the prime minister did well to remove him from office.”

Context: The decision is widely being interpreted as a crude political manoeuvre by Netanyahu to ensure the survival of his coalition.

He is facing increasing pressure from his ultra-Orthodox partners to pass the daycare subsidies bill and pander to their demands to enshrine their (lack of) service in the IDF in a new law.
Whist legally it is the prime minister’s prerogative to sack any minister, removing an accomplished heavyweight security expert whilst still fighting a multi-front war has been widely greeted with shock and anger.
Underlining this, 11 ballistic missiles were fired this morning from Lebanon, with sirens heard across Tel Aviv and central Israel. No injuries have been reported. Whist fighting continues in Lebanon and Gaza.
As well as his security acumen, Gallant through his close relationship with US Defence Secretary Austin, led the Israeli liaison with the US, including at a time now when Israel is facing a potential imminent attack from Iran.
The announcement also coincides (and distracts attention) from the latest scandal enveloping the prime minister’s office over leaked intelligence documents.
It also coincided with the US election. Prime Minister Netanyahu was quick to congratulate President Elect Trump, even before the result has been confirmed.
By promoting Katz and Saar, Netanyahu has found a way out of political trap. Only yesterday the coalition found it did not have a majority to pass the daycare bill. Saar was among those who spoke out against it. However, even he cannot so brazenly support a bill today that he opposed yesterday so instead the issue has now been removed from the legislative agenda for today. It is anticipated that this will now be included in overall compensation package to the ultra-Orthodox on a new draft bill, that will be prepared by the new defence minister.
There has been long standing acrimony between Netanyahu and Gallant. Netanyahu first attempted to remove Gallant in Spring 2023 after Gallant warned of dire security ramifications over the proposed judicial reform. That led to mass protest on the streets and Netanyahu’s subsequent reversal.
The new Defence Minister Israel Katz is one of Israel’s longest serving Likud politicians, having first been elected in 1992. He has served as Minister of Foreign Affairs (twice), Minister of Finance and Minister of Intelligence (for five years), and a long-standing member of the Security Cabinet. He is considered a Netanyahu loyalist that will be less strident and independent than Gallant.
The decision of Gideon Saar to serve as foreign minister, marks a sharp U-turn since he left the Likud in disillusioned after unsuccessfully challenging Netanyahu’s leadership in 2019. He has also served a variety of portfolios in the past including minister of education, interior and justice.

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Katz faces a steep learning curve to familiarise himself with numerous complex security challenges.

It has been speculated that removing Gallant is the first step for Netanyahu to dismiss the heads of the security establishment, placing them culpable for the October 7th attack and distancing the political echelon from the failure. Netanyahu has denied this claim.
The move adds further despair to the 101 hostage families now in captivity 397 days, who had held out hope for Minister Gallant leading efforts to conclude a deal

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