Israeli politics & society

November 5, 2024

Israeli government approves budget but faces legislative challenges

The budget: Government ministers approved the budget for next year with the aim of sustaining the war effort, supporting reservists and their families and stimulating growth.

The budget will stand at NIS 607.4 billion, (approximately £125bn) alongside additional adjustments measures which total approximately NIS 37 billion (£7.6bn).
It includes a NIS 9 billion package (£1.85bn) to support the unprecedented number of 300,000 reservists.
In order to cover some of the costs and rein in a budget deficit of about 4.3 per cent, ministers approved a roughly NIS 40 billion package (£8.22bn) of tax hikes and spending cuts. This will include raising VAT from the current 17 per cent to 18 per cent.
The government has not yet published the full details of the hike of national insurance contributions, but it is expected to add between NIS 1,000 to NIS 2,000 (£205 – £410) a year in contributions to an average household.
However, benefits paid to the elderly, people with disabilities, Holocaust survivors and families of fallen soldiers will not be frozen as was proposed, except for child allowances.
Finance Minister Smotrich explained that the deficit is a result of the high cost of the country which has now been at war for over a year.
The budget makes cuts across several ministries including: health, agriculture, education, welfare and social affairs. Additionally, five government offices will be closed, although an announcement on which ones has not yet been made.
At Friday’s cabinet vote the budget passed 23 votes to 7 with four ministers from the prime minister’s Likud party, as well as the three from Jewish Power, voting against.
These included Likud Minster for Culture and Sports Miki Zohar and Environmental Protection Minister Idit Silman who opposed proposed cuts to their ministries. Jewish Power ministers Itamar Ben Gvir, Amichai Eliyahu, and Yitzhak Wasserlauf, also voted against the budget due to what they describe as harm to the security services.
Two more ministers, Yitzhak Goldknopf, (leader of United Torah Judaism – UTJ) and Gideon Saar (New Hope) did not participate in the vote.
Opposition leader Lapid criticised the government, saying that the budget will raise the expenses of every family in Israel while simultaneously handing out NIS 10 billion to unnecessary government offices.

Controversy over the daycare subsidies bill: The bill was recently submitted by the UTJ party in order to ease the criteria for daycare subsidies for ultra-Orthodox children.

The intention of the bill is to circumvent a decision earlier in the year by the attorney-general to block subsidies for children of yeshiva students where the father has refused to serve in the military. Instead it proposes criterion based exclusively on the mother’s employment, irrespective of whether the father works for a living.
The bill was proposed following a decision by ultra-Orthodox lawmakers to delay their demand for a new conscription law until after a vote on the budget. That decision followed widespread anger and resentment over the ultra-Orthodox demand to exempt their members from military service.
Despite Netanyahu’s openness to passing that day subsidies bill, and with a Knesset vote on it for a preliminary reading scheduled for Wednesday, several members of the coalition have announced their decision not to support it.
Opposition has been voiced by Likud MKs Defense Minister Gallant, Yuli Edelstein and Dan Illouz; Religious Zionism party MKs Ophir Sofer, Ohad Tal and Moshe Solomon; and Gideon Saar’s faction. In light of this, the bill is no longer expected to enjoy a majority with the balance in the Knesset now 57 for and 57 against.
Yesterday Saar, who recently joined Netanyahu’s coalition, explained the reasoning for his opposition. “The reservists have served, and are serving, an incomprehensible number of days on reserve duty over the past year. There have been deaths; soldiers have been wounded—physically and mentally. Their families are paying a high price, in terms of family dynamics and finances. At this moment, the government and the IDF must strive to carry out significant processes to increase participation in the responsibility and the privilege of serving from all sectors of the public. That is imperative.”
Sources inside UTJ said they “expect the prime minister to enforce discipline in the coalition ranks, with an emphasis on the Likud. If the daycare subsidy bill doesn’t pass on Wednesday, we will vote in accordance with our own decisions on every piece of legislation emerging from the ranks of the Likud.”
UTJ also hinted it may reconsider voting with the government on several bills. MK Yaakov Asher said, “If the Likud splits on the daycare subsidy bill and some members vote with the opposition in order to undermine ultra-Orthodox women’s employment, we also have a variety of views about the ratings bill [legislation that would give the government the authority to oversee television ratings], the public broadcasting corporation bill [legislation to increase government control over the Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation budget] and the Israel Bar Association [a reference to a key part of Justice Minister Yariv Levin’s judicial reform proposal]. The opposition also has good proposals that we can support. We have nothing to lose.”

Context: The Israeli economy registered a sharp slowdown due to the war. Factors include the high living costs, the mobilisation of army reservists, as well as the decline in productivity and reduction in exports.

According to the finance ministry, GDP growth for 2024 is estimated at 0.4 per cent, although it has revised expectations for 2025 and predicts growth of 4.3 per cent based on the assumption that the war’s intensity would continue for now, but fighting will end after the first quarter of 2025.
There remains tension between the defence and finance ministries. The defence budget currently represents 6.5 per cent of Israel’s GDP. According to Finance Minister Smotrich they still need to take into consideration the impact of the defence budget on other sectors, as economic growth and recovery will strengthen the security situation in Israel.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that, if necessary, the government will submit a ‘supplemental budget’ to cover the additional defence costs
As of now, the IDF has reportedly completed drafting the staff for the first ultra-Orthodox brigade, as well as establishing infrastructure for the induction of the brigade’s first unit next month.
Defence Minister Gallant has given his approval for an additional 7,000 draft orders to be sent to members of the ultra- Orthodox community. In the summer, during the first phase, 3,000 orders were sent but only around 300 showed up at induction centres.
The tension over ultra-Orthodox men not serving in the IDF has for many years caused tension in Israeli society. Yet over the past year – in which approximately 300,000 reservists have been called up since October 7 2023, 18 percent of whom were men over 40 who should have been exempted – this tension has increased.
There is significant opposition within religious Zionist circles (within which the Religious Zionism and Likud parties draw support from) to the continued exemption of the ultra-Orthodox).
At the same time, the ultra-Orthodox parties have been loyal and consistent members of Netanyahu’s coalition.

Looking ahead: The government will need to recalibrate its position on the subsidies bill and how this may affect the vote on the budget.

If it passes its first reading in the Knesset, the budget will subsequently be sent to the Knesset Finance Committee, which will prepare the final version for the second and third votes

November 4, 2024

Fighting continues amid political security scandal

Northern front: Dozens of rockets and missiles continue to target northern Israel, as the IDF continues its miliary campaign in Lebanon. On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the Lebanon border noting, “from here one can see and hear the changed reality.” Netanyahu said, “We are striking all areas in Lebanon. I would like to make it clear: with or without an agreement, the key to restoring the calm and security in the north, the key to returning our residents in the north safely to their homes, is – first of all – to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani. Second is to strike at any attempt to rearm itself. Third is to respond vigorously to any action against us. Simply put, enforcement, enforcement, enforcement – and cutting off Hezbollah’s pipeline from Iran through Syria. To all of this we are committed.” Over the weekend, IDF commandos carried out an unusual operation in the northern Lebanese coastal town of Batroun. Forces were able to enter from the sea and apprehend and extract a senior Hezbollah commander and transfer him back to Israel for questioning. In another rare announcement, the IDF confirmed that they also carried out an operation in southern Syria. According to the IDF the target was, “Ali Soleiman al-Assi, a Syrian citizen…. His activities included gathering intelligence on IDF troops in the border area for future terror activity of the network. Ali Soleiman al-Assi has been under IDF surveillance, was detained and transferred for interrogation in Israel.” The IDF also announced the elimination of two Hezbollah commanders in the area of Tyre. One was the commander of Hezbollah’s forces in the coastal sector, the second, Hezbollah’s artillery commander in the same sector. Between them they were responsible for launching more than 400 rocket and mortar projectiles just in the last month. This corresponds to roughly 10 per cent of total launches in this period.Elsewhere, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck the commander of Hezbollah’s Nasser Unit missiles and rockets array, as well as the commander of the drones array in the unit in Jouaiyya in southern Lebanon. They were responsible for multiple rocket attacks, including the attack in Majdal Shams, which killed 12 children and the rocket attack on Metula last Thursday, which resulted in the deaths of 5 civilians.The IAF also targeted and killed the Hezbollah commander of the Khiam area, along with a Radwan Forces commander. They were responsible for many anti-tank missile and rocket attacks. As part of the continued ground operation, the IDF announced, “troops located numerous weapons stored in both the kitchen and children’s room, including RPGs, rocket launchers, rockets, grenades, and AK-47 rifles. In the same civilian building, which was used as a weapons storage facility, a large cache of military tactical equipment, combat gear, and intelligence documents was found, used by Hezbollah operatives who had barricaded themselves in the building.”

The scandal: An investigation has been launched following suspicion that classified and sensitive intelligence information was taken from the IDF. After a court lifted a gag order, it is now permitted to report that Eli Feldstein, a spokesperson in the Prime Minister’s Office, is alleged to have taken intelligence material and leaked it to foreign media sources. The chief concern is that the information was liable to severely damage state security, endangered information sources and potentially undermined efforts to release the hostages. There is a further suspicion and allegations that the material was manipulated before being leaked.It is also being alleged that Feldstein failed his security clearance, but was still employed by the Director-General of the Prime Minister’s Office. Three other suspects from within the defence establishment were arrested. The remand of three of them was extended, and one was released. Although the prime minister has sought to distance himself from the case he faces increasing political pressure.For the first time in a year and half, Leader of the Opposition Lapid and his centrist rival MK Gantz held a joint press conference on Sunday night. Lapid said, “Netanyahu said in the past that he did not know that there was a problem on Mt. Meron, that he did not know about the submarines, that he did not know about the warnings before October 7, and now he says that he did not know what his bureau was doing at a time that Israel is at a war for its existence. Netanyahu’s line of defence is that he has no influence or control over the system that he heads. If that is true, he is unfit to lead the State of Israel in the most difficult war in its history.”Gantz said, “When we quit the government, I said that political considerations had infiltrated the holy of holies of Israel’s security. We warned of this in real time. We’ve reached the stage of the proof. If sensitive security information was stolen and became a tool in a campaign of political survival, this is not just a criminal offence, this is a national crime.”

Hopes for a ceasefire: There is cautious optimism that a ceasefire agreement in the north can be reached in the next couple of weeks.The broad parameters reinforcing previous agreements are understood to include the removal of Hezbollah south of Litani River and efforts preventing Hezbollah from re-arming. Israel would then gradually redeploy out of the Lebanon.There is added impetus as both presidential candidates (and President Biden) all support an end to the fighting.What remains is for Israel is to reach an understanding with international partners for legitimacy to act if / when Hezbollah violates the agreement by returning south or seeking to re-arm.

Iranian threat: Israel remains on high alert for an Iranian attack after Ayatollah Khamenei threatened Israel with “a crushing response.” There appears to be a consensus within the Iranian leadership, even among the ‘moderates’ over the need to respond, perhaps even stronger than the October 1st attack.It is anticipated that they will wait until after the US election, but before inauguration. The Iranians are concerned that an imminent response would help Trump in the election. Khamenei also hinted that their response may not necessarily be solely military, but could also include making advances towards nuclear proliferation

October 30, 2024

Cabinet to vote on budget today

What’s happening: Finance Minister Smotrich yesterday sent an outline of the 2025 budget ahead of a government meeting today to approve the budget.

The cabinet is expected to vote on the state budget today, however substantial disagreements remain, particularly over the size of next year’s defence budget.
The Ministry of Defence says it needs NIS 160 billion (£33.1bn), whereas the Finance Ministry says the defence needs can be met with NIS 110 billion (£22.76bn).
Part of this large discrepancy is based on different assessments over when the fighting will end in the north and south as well as the Iranian threat.
In general, the budget focuses on economic recovery from the war. According to the Finance Ministry, the direct cost of funding the war in Gaza from October 2023 through August 2024 was 100 billion shekels (approximately £20.7 billion).
The Bank of Israel estimates the total could rise to NIS 250 billion (£51.72bn) by the end of 2025, but that was before Israel’s incursion into Lebanon, which will add to this amount.
As a result, several ministries are facing substantial cuts including NIS 100 million (£20.70m) off the welfare ministry and NIS 133 million (£27.50m) off the education ministry.
The budget also includes cuts to the Transport and Road Safety Ministry’s development budget and Health Ministry budgets.
Smotrich is reportedly trying to cut NIS 40 billion (£8.27 billion). There could also be changes in the income tax brackets and tax credit points, and some national insurance payments will be frozen.
Responding to concerns that some of the cuts will harm Israel’s most vulnerable, Smotrich said that the ministry will identify those who are significantly harmed by the stipend freezes.
Ultra-Orthodox parties have, until recently, insisted on a bill to exempt full-time Yeshiva (religious seminary) students from military service before supporting the budget.
However, facing widespread anger and resentment both from the secular public and parts of the national-religious community (which has lost a disproportionate number of soldiers over the course of the war) ultra-Orthodox leaders in the Knesset agreed to delay their demand for a new conscription law until after this week’s budget vote.
Instead, by way of compensation, the United Torah Judaism party submitted a bill to ease the criteria for daycare subsidies for ultra-Orthodox children. The bill seeks to circumvent a decision earlier in the year by the attorney-general to block subsidies for children of yeshiva students where the father has refused to serve in the military.
Addressing the budgetary issue that affects the ultra-Orthodox community, Smotrich acknowledged that there are social implications but refrained from committing to supporting financial sanctions to discourage this situation from continuing.

Context: The discussions over the budget and the ultra-Orthodox demand for a formal exemption from army service comes as the IDF predicts it needs greater manpower. Over the next two years, IDF reservists will continue to serve for longer periods of time.

Some 300,000 reservists have been called up since the Hamas attack of October 7th 2023, 18 percent of whom were men over 40 who should have been exempted.
The IDF plans to increase the number of soldiers who will protect the north and the south from Hamas or Hezbollah in a scenario where they try to attack these areas in the future and to provide a better sense of security for the civilian residents.
The IDF is also preparing for a scenario that, even if a ceasefire is agreed, the IDF will seek to maintain their freedom to respond to anticipated Hezbollah violations of any agreement.
A group of reservists recently sent a letter to IDF Chief of Staff Halevi asking to share the burden with members of the ultra-Orthodox community.
In a hospital visit to an ultra-orthodox wounded soldier, Halevi talked about the important of ultra-Orthodox Jews serving, saying, “This is what’s right socially, and I think that when we manage to grow from this… from realising the need for a larger IDF, it could also bring a very positive social change.”
Halevi added that, “more soldiers are needed for the conscripted army and IDF reserves.”

Looking ahead: Once the cabinet approves the budget, it is then voted on in the Knesset.

Netanyahu and Smotrich have stated their intention to pass the budget by the end of 2024. With the coalition now with 68 seats, as long as the ultra-Orthodox parties are on board there is no reason why the budget should encounter difficulties. The final deadline to pass the budget is March 31st, which would result in the government’s collapse and early elections.

IDF Recruitment – Background

In 1948, David Ben Gurion struck a deal with the ultra-Orthodox community to exempt from service a capped number whose full-time occupation was Torah study. At the time, the principle that ‘Torah study is a vocation’ was never enshrined in law, but rather in a Defence Ministry regulation. Given the much smaller ultra-Orthodox population, the exemption applied only to 400 Yeshiva students.
With the election of Menachem Begin as Prime Minister in 1977, the cap was removed and all Yeshiva students were able to avail themselves of the exemption.
In the late 1990s, the Supreme Court began a series of interventions on the issue. In a 1998 ruling Rubinstein v. The Minister of Defence, the court, under the leadership of Aharon Barak, ruled that exemption was discriminatory and violated the principle of equality. It subsequently ordered that suitable legislation be explored to remedy the status quo. In 2012, the Court similarly ruled unconstitutional the Tal Law, the first attempt at a legislative solution which, although designed to encourage greater ultra-Orthodox participation, left the process largely voluntary, resulting in ongoing low rates of service.
The 2013 Netanyahu government – which did not comprise ultra-Orthodox parties – passed legislation requiring an annually increasing percentage of ultra-Orthodox men to be drafted. This was encouraged by coalition partners Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Between 2012-14, partly as a result of reduced budgets, the amount of ultra-Orthodox students studying in Yeshiva declined by 8 per cent.
The 2015 ultra-Orthodox parties return to power led to new legislation undercutting the previous policy, which in turn was once again struck down by the court. An increase in budgets for yeshiva students led to 10 per cent increase in the number of students. In 2017, the court ruled the new legislation unconstitutional and demanded the government make changes that respect the principle of equality.
During the Bennett-Lapid government, Defence Minister Gantz succeeded in passing, on a first reading, a bill lowering the age of exemption to 21. The bill, whose progress collapsed along with the government, also provided for the eventual drafting of the majority of the ultra-Orthodox into the IDF, with the quota for those obliged to serve rising each year.
In 2022, when the coalition was formed, Netanyahu agreed to pass a new law on conscription that would have met ultra-Orthodox demands, but it has been repeatedly delayed, first in a battle over the justice system and later over the war.
In June 2024, the High Court ruled the state must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students, and the military said it would recruit about 3,000 ultra-Orthodox a year

August 1, 2024

Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders

What’s happened: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

In his public statement, Iran’s supreme leader, said: “we see avenging his blood our duty,” because it happened on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
In a memorial ceremony held in Tehran, the Ayatollah personally led the prayers, while also speaking at the ceremony, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the Israeli regime committed a ‘strategic mistake’.
In Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation on Wednesday evening and described the current conflict as an “existential war against a stranglehold of terrorist armies and missiles that Iran would like to tighten around our neck.”
Speaking of Hezbollah’s number two Shukr, Netanyahu said that he “was directly responsible for the massacre of our dear boys and girls in Majdal Shams. He was responsible for the murder of many other Israeli citizens. He was responsible for the unceasing assault against our citizens in the northern communities over nine months of war.”
“He was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world. The US put a $5 million bounty on his head, and for good reason. He was involved in the murder of 241 American soldiers and 58 French soldiers in Beirut in 1983. He was the main liaison between Iran and Hezbollah and he was responsible for the organisation’s missiles,” Netanyahu added.
Defence Minister Gallant spoke to his counterpart US Secretary of State Austin who reassured him by saying, “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again.”
The US has also now deployed at least 12 warships to the region, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, amphibious assault teams and over 4,000 Marines and sailors.
In a further unconfirmed attack, Syria sources are claiming that Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been killed in a targeted attack close to Damascus. Hajizadeh is understood to have been the senior commander who oversaw the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.

Context: While Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the strike in Tehran, the dual targets in Beirut and Tehran within a few hours appears to be an impressive intelligence and operational achievement for Israel.

Open speculation remains as to how Haniyeh was killed. Some reports suggest a missile was launched from outside Iran, while others believe the targeted killing was implemented from a closer proximity, implying operatives on the ground.
This is the latest targeted strike inside Iran, further exposing the gaps in the regime’s internal security.
As a formal guest of the Ayatollah, and staying in a ‘secure residence’ operated by the IRGC, Haniyeh’s death is seen in Iran as constituting a further psychological blow to the regime, which is likely also a factor in their consideration of response.
According to the Iranian warning, a response may come directly from Iran – similar to the attack in April in which 300+ drones and missiles were fired at the Israeli home front. Alternatively, the possibility exists that Iran will utilise all of the members of its Axis of Resistance – in Syria, Iraq and Yemen – to carry out an integrated multi-theatre response.
Israel will be partly reassured by US Secretary Austin’s support and will hope that the regional alliance between Israel, US and regional partners, known as Middle East Air Defence (MEAD), will be as effective as thwarting the Iranian attack in April.
The strikes on Haniyeh and Shukr are the latest example of an Israeli tactic to target the top leadership in Hamas and Hezbollah.
- In early January, Saleh Al-Arouri, Haniyeh’s deputy and one of the founders of the armed wing of Hamas, was killed in Beirut (although Israel did not take formal responsibility).
- In mid-July, a strike in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing. The confirmation of his death was formally recognised by Israel this morning.
- In March, Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy was killed.
- In April, an airstrike in Damascus killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in Syria, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Haniyeh, who has been Hamas’ political leader since 2017, is the highest -profile member of the group to be killed following the October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza.
On October 7th he was recorded praying in celebration of the attacks, and called on West Bank Palestinians to join the battle.
Today is the 300^th day since October 7^th, with 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. Inside Israel, hostage families and their supporters continue their campaign to pressure the government to move forward with the deal.
According to Prime Minister Netanyahu the extended military campaign serves to increase the pressure on Hamas and to support Israel in the negotiations. Others are concerned Haniyeh’s death makes a deal harder to conclude.
In parallel, IDF troops are continuing operational activity in Gaza.
- In the Rafah area troops are currently operating in the area of Tel al-Sultan, where they dismantled a structure rigged with explosives that was used by Hamas terrorists.
- In the area of Khan Yunis, launchers loaded with rockets and aimed toward Israeli territory were struck by the IDF.

Looking ahead: Following the memorial ceremony in Tehran, Haniyeh’s body will be flown to Doha for a formal burial.

An Iranian response is anticipated in the coming days with Israel on a peak state of alert preparing for any scenario. Israel’s air defences are on maximum alert, the air force jets patrolling the skies and ground forces on heightened vigilance along all the borders.
The head of Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said, “The Israeli Air Force defends and operates in all arenas of the war, enveloping the State of Israel with dozens of aircraft, manned and unmanned, ready and prepared within minutes for any scenario, in any arena. We will act against anyone planning to harm the citizens of the State of Israel, there Is nowhere that is too far for us to strike”
So far the Israel’s Home Front command has not yet given any further instructions to the Israeli civilian population.

May 31, 2023

Efforts resume to reach compromise on judicial reform

The representatives of the coalition and opposition resumed their dialogue yesterday under the auspice of the President’s office.
President Herzog left yesterday on a diplomatic mission to meet the President of Azerbaijan, but before leaving related to the compromise talks saying, “We can reach understandings. It takes effort, goodwill, and leadership, and I say: Ignore the background noise and think about the goal…No one will violate our values or basic principles.”
Last night the two leading opposition party leaders, Lapid and Gantz put out a joint statement: “We are continuing all the time in a true attempt to reach broad agreements, and are committed to keeping Israel democratic and stable. We are attentive to the voices and know that most of the public want dialogue over leaving the room.”
“Dialogue at the President’s Residence is the only possibility to find a joint solution. Nonetheless, we clarified that the continuation of the talks are contingent on the chance to reach an advancement, on the commitment to the process in the room and outside of it, and on stopping the sword of the judicial overhaul with a clear commitment that there will be no legislation that will lead to a change in Israel’s system of government.”
However, also yesterday, Religious Zionist Party MK Rothman, chairman of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, and one of the drivers of the reforms (and not part of the compromise talks) told Kan Radio that the talks were “meaningless,” and that “if the president had wanted to lead to agreements, he had thousands of opportunities… I do not intend to waste my precious time on futile discussions.”
Context: The compromise talks resumed yesterday following a break that saw the government successfully pass a two-year budget that gives it relative stability.
There are contradictory voices from with the ruling Likud Party on whether the issue of judicial reform will return to the legislative agenda.
Earlier in the week Yediot Ahronot anonymously quoted several senior Likud figures who said the judicial reform is dead. They argued that given the overall circumstances, including the political and economic challenges and the social divides within society, Netanyahu has come to recognise that there is no real option of advancing the reform.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has denied those claims, emphasising the importance of the talks at the President’s Residence. At the weekly Likud Knesset faction meeting Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “the reform is not dead, but we are making every effort at dialogue in order to reach a broad consensus. Don’t believe what you read… Not even in Yediot Ahronot. There are a lot of things going on, many processes; I don’t want to go into all of them. The people who are ‘inside’ the issues are inside; others will be soon. I understand that this is causing a certain frustration and a situation that we are not sharing things at any given moment, but the intentions are good.”
There is continued speculation over gaps within the Likud, with Justice Minister Levin remaining hawkish in his reform agenda, whist Netanyahu appears invested in the compromise talks being led by his close confidant Minister Dermer.
Meanwhile protests against the judicial reform have continued, on Saturday night for the 21^st consecutive week, tens of thousands demonstrated in Tel Aviv, where former Defence Minister Yaalon called on Lapid and Gantz to “stop acting as fig leaves for the prime minister” and “leave the negotiations.”
Whilst both sides currently remain committed to dialogue, the reform of the judges selection committee bill remains frozen, but can be return to the Knesset agenda to be passed into law with a day’s notice.
Looking ahead: The next deadline is the election of the Knesset representatives for the judges selection committee, scheduled for June 14.
In the current format the committee includes two members of Knesset, one from the government and one from the opposition. (The rest of the nine person committee includes two government ministers, three Supreme Court justices and two members of the Israel Bar Association. Also, one each of the Knesset members, ministers, judges and Bar Association members must be a woman).
There is concern whether the government will keep with this convention, or deny an opposition a place on the committee.
The nominees need to be presented a week earlier, by that point it will be clear if the coalition will respect the existing makeup – by only presenting one candidates.
Even if the Knesset selects one coalition and one opposition, it is still at Justice Minister Levin’s discretion whether to convene the committee.
Two justices for the Supreme Court, including President Hayut are due to retire at the end of October.

May 25, 2023

Israel passes 2023/24 budget

Overnight the Knesset passed the budget and affiliated arrangements law.

All sixty-four members of the governing coalition voted in favour, ensuring a comfortable majority.
In a stormy parliamentary session, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “We are passing a responsible, excellent budget that will faithfully serve the citizens of Israel and lead to an improvement in their quality of life.”
Netanyahu continued, “The budget promotes great revolutions, in personal safety, in education, in transportation and in the fight against the cost of living.”
During his speech, he was heckled by opposition members, who called him a “dictator,” whilst thousands protested against the budget outside the Knesset.
The budget was criticised by leader of the National Unity Party Benny Gantz who said, “The cost of living is rising and the coalition has not introduced a single serious reform to deal with it. People are sitting in traffic jams, and the coalition has nothing to say about national infrastructure. People are being murdered in the streets in huge numbers and are afraid to leave their homes—and the coalition is busy talking about budgets and jobs that have no bearing on reality. Netanyahu, the responsibility is on you.”
Leader of the Opposition Lapid wrote on Twitter this morning, “While you were sleeping, the worst and most destructive budget in the country’s history was passed. This budget is a violation of the contract with Israel’s citizens, which all of us, and our children and our children’s children, will pay for.”

Context: Passing the budget is a crucial milestone, that now gives the government some stability. Had the budget not passed by the end of the month the government would automatically have fallen, precipitating new elections.

The budget for 2023 will be 484 billion shekels (£105bn) and in 2024 it will be 514 billion shekel, (£112bn) the largest in the country’s history.
In order to pass this budget, the ruling Likud Party held negotiations and eventually reached understandings with Jewish Power and the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ).
Jewish Power received an additional allocation of 250 million shekels (£54m) to the Negev, Galilee and National Resilience Ministry’s budget. This extra funding will come from budget surpluses from other ministries. Minister Ben Gvir, the leader of Jewish Power, had initially sought an additional 850 million shekels (£184m).
Meanwhile, the leader of UTJ, Housing Minister Goldknopf, will also receive an additional 250 million shekels (£54m) for retroactive payments for yeshiva students that had been cut by the previous government.
This decision will award a one-time pay out of 2,500 shekels (£543) to every yeshiva student.
This was not part of the formal budget and will be allocated out of budget surpluses from other ultra-Orthodox controlled ministries.
Overall, fourteen billion shekels (£3bn) were allocated to meet commitments made in the coalition agreements, which includes increased funding for ultra-Orthodox education; double the amount of previous years.
Earlier in the week 280 economists, including the former director general of the Finance Ministry, Avi Ben Bassat, and the former director of the Budgets Department, Udi Nisan, published a letter stating, “The money transfers being made in keeping with the coalition agreements… are likely to cause significant and long-term damage to the Israeli economy and to its future as a prosperous country. This is because of the unprecedented increase in allocating resources to ultra-Orthodox institutions that are unofficial, without making this conditional on supervision and on full core curriculum studies…These measures will deny children in ultra-Orthodox schools the option of acquiring the vital basic skills for being integrated as adults into the job market in an advanced economy and…it will lower the chances of ultra-Orthodox adults to earn a dignified living and it will increase poverty.”
The budget coincides with growing concern over increasing cost of living, from basic food products to rent and mortgage repayments. Earlier this week the Bank of Israel raised the interest rate for the tenth time in one year, to now stand at 4.75 per cent.

Looking ahead: The implementation of the budget and monitoring of ministerial surpluses will be overseen by the Knesset Finance Committee, led by MK Moshe Gafni (UTJ).

With the budget now passed, attention will return to the issue of judicial reform. The government and opposition will return to negotiations facilitated by President Herzog in an effort to reach a compromise.
The other major agenda item that will be legislating is the ultra-Orthodox exemptions from military service, where the High Court set a deadline for the end of July.

April 13, 2023

Two British-Israeli sisters killed in terror attack

The victims of Friday’s shooting attack near Hamra in the West Bank have been named as sisters and British nationals Maia Esther Dee and Rina Miriam Dee, aged 20 and 15.
Their mother Lucy, 48, remains in critical condition at Hadassah Hospital Ein Kerem.
The three, residents of the Israeli settlement of Efrat, were travelling by car near Hamra when they came under fire, causing their vehicle to crash. Terrorists then opened fire on the stricken vehicle.
The victims’ father, Rabbi Leo Dee, a former senior rabbi at Radlett United Synagogue and assistant rabbi in Hendon, was travelling in a separate car.
While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Hamas praised it as “a natural response to the occupation’s ongoing crimes against Al-Aqsa Mosque and its barbaric aggression against Lebanon and the steadfast Gaza.”

Israel continues to face and respond to multi-dimensional, multi-front security situations:

Rockets from Syria:

Overnight Saturday, wo salvos, of three rockets each, were fired at Israel from Syria, triggering alarms in the Israeli Golan towns of Natur and Avnei Eitan.
Three of the rockets entered Israeli territory, one being intercepted by Iron Dome and two landing in open fields.
A Palestinian-Syrian militia calling itself the Al-Quds Brigade claimed responsibility for the first salvo.
In response, the Israeli Air Force struck sites in the Syrian areas from which the rockets emanated – said by Syrian sources to be Tel al-Jamuah, located between Tasil and Nawa – including military sites, radars and artillery positions. Earlier, IDF artillery shelled the attack area, while unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeted the rocket launchers.

Tel Aviv Attack:

In Tel Aviv on Friday, an Italian tourist was killed and seven others injured when a terrorist launched a car-ramming attack along several hundred metres of Kaufmann Street, near Charles Clore Park.
Alessandro Parini, a 35-year-old lawyer from Rome, died in the attack, while hospital officials have disclosed that British nationals are amongst the injured.
The perpetrator, killed at the scene, was later named as Yousef Abu Jaber, 45, an Israeli citizen and father of five from Kfar Qasim with no security record.
A police official said that “A terrorist with no history of security issues, and not a young man, who carries out an attack like this was almost certainly influenced by the incitement.”
Kfar Qasim Mayor Adel Badir said, “We denounce any attack against innocent people and call for all sides to show tolerance. This is not the way of Kfar Qasim residents. The city was and remains a place for coexistence and the pursuit of peace.”

Temple Mount:

Overnight, hundreds of Palestinians once more barricaded themselves inside al Aqsa Mosque, with the Jordanian Waqf refusing to remove them despite commitments not to allow overnight stays in the mosque during Ramadan.
While Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Saturday took the unusual step of reinforcing the police in the Central District with troops from the IDF, Israeli forces declined to move to remove those inside on this occasion.
This morning, groups of around 20 Jews at a time are being permitted to enter the compound under guard.

Context: The latest fatalities as a result of Palestinian terrorism takes the death toll on the Israeli side to eighteen since the beginning of this year. Thirty-two people were killed in terror attacks in 2022.

Despite facing rockets attacks from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip this week, none of these attacks have resulted in fatalities or injuries.
The responses by the IDF have been calibrated according to the sector, but have all been measured and restrained, with no reported loss of lives. However, the response in Syria – targeting the source of fire – has been more robust than the response in Lebanon, where concerns over further reprisal attacks and escalation from Hezbollah have inspired restraint.
Israel’s security establishment had anticipated that Ramadan would be the catalyst to spark attacks against Israel. Already a month ago, the explosion at the Megiddo Junction by a terrorist who managed to enter Israel from Lebanon with a heavy bomb raised alarm. The bomb which exploded prematurely was evidence of cooperation between Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups. However at the time, Israel did not blame Hezbollah directly, again, partly to give them more scope to respond (or not) and avoid an escalation.
The working understanding from Israeli intelligence is that the rocket fire from Lebanon was not Hezbollah, which has denied responsibility, but Palestinian groups operating out of southern Lebanon.
However, cooperation and coordination between Hezbollah and Palestinian terror organisations, with the guidance of Iran has been growing.
Similarly, the working assessment remains that Hamas in Gaza does not want to see an escalation there, but prefers to incite and encourage terrorism in the West Bank.
To an extent, events around the Temple Mount influence all other theatres, due to the resonance of the site for Muslims and Jews.
A pattern has developed whereby young men armed with rocks and fireworks lock themselves into al Aqsa mosque at night in order to provoke police and create disturbances. On Saturday night the police let them remain inside the mosque and did not confront them, whilst facilitating Jewish visitors to the site and allowing the traditional Passover priestly blessings to be conducted at the Western Wall below.
There is also concern that Iran is also trying to incite Israeli Arabs to join the attacks. The terror attack in Tel Aviv was committed by an Israeli Arab. Of significance, the leader of the Islamic Ra’am Party Mansour Abbas condemned the attack writing on twitter in Hebrew: “Especially during these difficult times, it is important for me to emphasise, as I have done many times in the past – as for the Tel Aviv terror attack, is not the way of the Arab society or Arab citizens in Israel. Arab leadership, particularly Ra’am and the Islamic Movement, will not condone any acts of violence against citizens, regardless of their religion, race, or ethnicity.”

Political context: Israel was already facing a severe domestic crisis, as a result of divisions caused by the government’s proposed judicial reforms.

The reforms and the make-up of hard right members in the coalition are also compounding the perception of a fissure in relations with the US. In this context the Iranians may believe this is an opportune moment to attack Israel.
This government is now marking its first 100 days in power. It is facing calls from within the right wing to act more robustly in responding to attacks. Yet for now a more considered approach, endorsed by the security establishment, to avoid escalation is being adopted.
The tenure of Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, remains in doubt. Two weeks ago he was fired after warning of “clear, immediate and palpable danger” to Israel’s security as a result of the proposed reforms. The firing appears suspended for now and he remains in his role.
Despite media speculation over a US-Israel rift, Gallant spoke with US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and in a reassuring move the US announced that it was deploying a guided missile submarine to the Gulf and an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean.

Looking ahead: The manhunt in the West Bank for the terrorist who killed the Dee sisters is ongoing.

An Iranian militia has warned of more planned attacks against Israeli owned vessels in the Gulf.
Israel has called up Border Police reservists to augment their defensive posture particularly in Jerusalem.
If the attacks on Israel continue there could be a larger call up of reserves.

March 27, 2023

General Strike declared in Israel

There were huge demonstrations last night across the country following the announcement that Prime Minister Netanyahu had fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.

A general strike has since been called across Israel.
Arnon Bar David, Chair of National Israeli Trade Union said “Today we are facing a historic moment where workers and employers together join hands, and together close the State of Israel”.
As part of the strike, all departures from Ben Gurion Airport have been halted.
Gallant was fired after he spoke out again the government’s planned reforms. On Saturday night he warned, “The growing rift in our society, is penetrating the IDF and security agencies. This poses a clear, immediate, and tangible threat to the security of the state. I will not allow this.”
In Tel Aviv, thousands of people blocked the main Ayalon motorway for several hours. Eventually the police were forced to use water cannons and mounted police to disperse them.
In Jerusalem, protestors broke through up to the final barrier outside the prime minister’s private residence.
Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid, along with Benny Gantz, issued a joint statement saying, “The country’s security cannot be a bargaining chip in the political game. Netanyahu crossed a red line this evening. We call on the Likud ministers, on the Likud MKs, do not lend a hand to destroying national security. Anyone who takes the job of defence minister will bring shame onto himself. The eyes of the people look to you in hope. It is still possible to stop.”
During the evening, Israeli consul-general in New York, Assaf Zamir, resigned. (He was a political appointment by the Bennett-Lapid government).
Former Prime Minister Bennett told Channel 12 News, “The State of Israel is in the greatest danger it has been since the Yom Kippur War. I call on the prime minister to retract his letter of dismissal to Gallant, to suspend the reform and to pause until after Independence Day. It doesn’t matter who is right and who is wrong. I call on all the demonstrators and on all Israeli citizens—do everything without violence, without bloodshed. We are brothers.”
There were also protests in London, with a demonstration outside the home of Israeli Ambassador Tzipi Hotovely.
This morning President Herzog appealed to the prime minister and the government, “the entire nation is rapt with deep worry. Our security, economy, society — all are under threat… The whole world is looking at you. For the sake of the unity of the People of Israel, for the sake of the necessary responsibility, I call on you to halt the legislative process immediately.”

Legislative Process: In parallel to the protests the Knesset committees met last night and approved the second Deri bill ahead of a vote in its second and third readings. The bill is designed to circumvent the Supreme Court’s decision not to allow Shas leader Aryeh Deri to serve as a minister, removing its right to rule on ministerial appointments.

This morning the Constitution, Law and Justice Committee reconvened to approve the bill to change the composition of the Judges Selection Committee for its second and third readings.

Context: Last night’s developments represent the most seismic moment in the near three-month period of intense national division following the coalition’s announcement of its package of judicial reforms. Whilst the full government response is uncertain, the events prompted the clearest signs yet of the possibility of a halt to the reform process by a previously bullish Netanyahu government.

The fervour of last night’s protest, mostly led by young people, was unpreceded even after twelve consecutive weeks of weekly weekend protests.
The removal of the defence minister from his post was widely interpreted as having crossed a red line.
This morning it is being anticipated that Netanyahu will announce that the legislation will be suspended, but Justice Minister Levin is trying to dissuade him from doing so and threatening to resign.
Already last night three Likud ministers announced that they would support the prime minister if he were to decide to suspend the legislative process: Nir Barkat, Miki Zohar and Amichai Chikli. Barkat wrote on Twitter: “The reform is necessary but not at the price of civil war.” Zohar wrote: “when the house is burning, you don’t ask who is right, you pour water on it and you save the people inside.”
Ultra-orthodox coalition partners Shas and United Torah Judaism both now support suspending the legislation.
Several Mayors, including from Likud, have also made calls to stop the legislation. Some have announced they are going on a hunger strike outside the Prime Minister’s Office.
Many in Israel’s security establishment are concerned that the domestic feuds will give a headwind to Israel’s enemies.

It is anticipated that Prime Minister Netanyahu will make an announcement shortly. To continue to follow the latest news, follow BICOM’s twitter feed here.

There will be a large demonstration outside the Knesset at 1400 this afternoon.

March 24, 2023

Attorney General pushes back against Netanyahu intervention as protests continue

In his most significant public intervention on the question yet, Prime Minister Netanyahu last night took to TV to address the Israeli people on judicial reform and its divisive impact.
Netanyahu began by acknowledging both the scale of the division and the legitimate patriotic rights of both sides of the question: “Opponents of the reform are not traitors; supporters of the reform are not fascists.”
He continued: “Supporters of the reform think there is no true democracy here and what endangers democracy is an all-powerful Supreme Court that delves into everything and, in effect, runs the country. On the other hand, opponents of the reform think that what endangers democracy is the Knesset and the Government acting without brakes or restraints, which will infringe on individual rights. A proper democratic regime must deal with both of these issues. It must ensure majority rule and it must also safeguard individual rights.”
Despite these conciliatory elements, Netanyahu also echoed the much-repeated reformist mantra that the Supreme Court has frequently intervened well beyond its reasonable brief, and that the election of judges was unrepresentative and functioned on a self-electing and self-perpetuating “a friend brings a friend system”.
He therefore confirmed that the proposed change to the Judges Selection Committee would proceed as planned.
On Friday morning, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara wrote to Netanyahu informing him that she considered his intervention “illegal and tainted by a conflict of interest”, in light of a 2020 conflict of interest deal agreed with then-Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit and barring Netanyahu from involvement in judicial, law enforcement, or legislative matters which may impact his own ongoing legal cases.
The Knesset had earlier on Thursday passed a bill changing the process for finding a sitting prime minister incapacitated. Under the new law, only the prime minister themself, or three quarters of their cabinet, may move for incapacitation.
Meanwhile, at least 92 Israelis were arrested protesting the reforms during a day-long set of nationwide demonstrations dubbed the “Day of Paralysis”.

Netanyahu’s address was not scheduled. Instead, Yoav Gallant – the Defence Minister increasingly concerned over the impact of the reforms and the attendant civil division on security and the integrity of the army – was scheduled to speak.

Gallant was summoned to an urgent meeting with Netanyahu, after which it was the Prime Minister instead who took to the airwaves.
The timing of Netanyahu’s address was prompted by Gallant’s proposed intervention, and enabled, so Netanyahu felt, by the passage of the incapacitation bill, removing the risk of a conflict of interest charge being used in an attempt to remove him. “Unfortunately, until today, my hands have been tied,” said Netanyahu, before making clear that from now on he would be centrally involved.
Baharav-Miara’s response makes clear that in her legal opinion Netanyahu’s hands should remain tied, while Yisrael Beiteinu Party Chairman Avigdor Liberman announced that his party would petition the Supreme Court to annul the incapacitation bill.
Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid responded to Netanyahu’s address by accusing the prime minister of “once again playing the victim and whining, and continuing to spread disgraceful lies against the judiciary that bear no connection to reality,”
Earlier on Thursday, as word of Gallant’s proposed intervention spread, coalition figures responded angrily. “Every Likud MK who is planning to stop the legislation is welcome to resign, preferably today. Right this second,” wrote Public Diplomacy Minister Galit Distel Atbaryan on Twitter, while the Jewish Power coalition faction said that Gallant had “removed himself from the right-wing camp”.
The legislation concerning the Judicial Selection Committee, as it stands, provides the governing coalition with a 6 out of 11 majority and the right to appoint the first two Supreme Court justice positions to fall vacant in a Knesset term by simple majority. The President of the Court will no longer by appointed by seniority, but by a simple majority committee vote.
Prior to the customary disruption of traffic centred on Tel Aviv, yesterday’s protests began with a demonstration outside the home of Shas leader Aryeh Deri. Police separated protesters from a group of counter-demonstrating ultra-Orthodox. Protests also centred on Bnei Brak, a largely ultra-Orthodox city.
Including ultra-Orthodox neighbourhoods in the protest itinerary makes explicit the connection between the reforms and another hugely divisive wedge issue in Israeli society: the relationship between the state and the ultra-Orthodox. Ultra-Orthodox lawmakers’ support for the reforms is based in part on their desire to formally legislate, for the first time, the exclusion of religious students from being drafted for military service.

Netanyahu left for London this morning, where he will meet with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and other senior British officials.

The Judges Selection Committee bill will soon be put to a vote in second and third readings, perhaps as early as next week.
The second so-called Deri bill blocking Supreme Court oversight over government appointments is set to be expedited on Sunday.
The impact of the Attorney General’s intervention is as yet unclear, though opponents may push for Netanyahu to be found in contempt of court should he intervene further on judicial matters.
Whether Gallant, and other Likud MKs concerned over the reforms’ impact on security and national cohesion, have been mollified by Netanyahu’s intervention remains to be seen.
In response to Netanyahu’s remarks, the leaders of the protests announced that they would step up their campaign against the reforms.

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