What’s happened: IDF preparations for a major ground offensive into Gaza City continue apace. Four high-rise towers in the city that the army claims were being used by Hamas were destroyed yesterday following evacuation orders. Similar tower strikes have been happening over the course of the last week as the IDF moves forces into the outskirts of the city.

• According to IDF estimates, up to 300,000 people of the nearly one million who were sheltering in Gaza have already evacuated. The IDF believes that most of the rest will leave only when a major ground incursion begins. 
• Haaretz reports that reconstruction work is underway on the European Hospital in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, and that two additional field hospitals are being set up, also in the southern part of the Strip. A new water pipeline connecting the humanitarian zone in al-Muwasi was connected to Egypt, and another power line was connected to an existing desalination facility.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Israel yesterday and traveled to the Western Wall in Jerusalem, accompanied by Prime Minister Netanyahu. Today he is meeting with Prime Minster and other top officials to discuss the war in Gaza and other topics. He told journalists that the US was “not happy” with the Israeli air strike in Qatar last week.
• Yesterday, Trump said Israel must “be very careful” and take action against Hamas, but emphasised Qatar’s importance. “Qatar has been a great ally to the U.S. A lot of people don’t know that. The emir is a wonderful person, actually.” Trump described Qatar as “a great ally.”
• According to media reports, Israeli officials are expected to raise with Rubio the possibility of Israel annexing some of the West Bank in response to the planned recognition of a Palestinian state later this week by a number of countries, including France and the UK.
• Foreign Minister Gideon Saar briefed diplomats in Jerusalem yesterday on Israel’s moves in Gaza and the West Bank.
  • Regarding the West Bank and the possibility of some kind of limited annexation, he said that no decision had been made yet.
  • Regarding a Palestinian state, he reiterated his opposition, and added that this was the overwhelming position of both Israeli officials and the Israeli public. Such a state, he said, would have as its “sole objective” the destruction of Israel.
  • On Gaza, he said that Israel had no interest in “controlling Palestinian’s lives there,” and spoke instead of a transitional period, possibly under an international mandate, as part of a comprehensive plan for the “day after” which was being worked out with the Americans.
• It was reported yesterday the Royal College of Defence Studies had decided to exclude Israeli participants from its programs in the next academic year. Critics of the move compared this exclusion unfavourably with the open door the College maintains to non-allied non-democratic countries, such as China. Amir Baram, Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Defence and himself an alumnus of the Royal College, called the decision “a profoundly dishonourable act of disloyalty to an ally at war.”

Context: The Security Cabinet met last night to discuss the hostage crisis. Maariv reports that the meeting ran for more than three hours and covered a long list of scenarios, including that Hamas might harm the hostages as the IDF moved into  its last redoubts in Gaza City. The Israeli television station Channel 12 reported that Israel had formulated measures to be carried out in response to any Hamas move to harm the hostages, but did not specific what those measures might be.

• IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir spoke with MKs in the Knesset Committee for Intelligence Affairs, a subcommittee of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee and a rare forum outside the Government where officials have access to highly classified briefings and intelligence. Multiple leaks from the committee meeting indicate Zamir’s dissatisfaction with the Government’s decisions on the Gaza offensive due to begin soon.
• Zamir was quoted as not knowing what the Government’s goals in the operation were, including if the end result would be a full military administration of the territory, something the IDF has sought to avoid. Such direct military rule existed in Gaza from 1967 to 1994 and is expected to be a much more onerous task now than it was 31 years ago when it came to an end.
• Zamir was widely quoted in the press as saying that even a successful operation in Gaza City would not defeat Hamas, and ultimately Israel would be pushed to mounting another offensive in the refugee camps in the central region of the Gaza Strip. 
• Yedioth Ahronoth reports that Zamir specifically criticised the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, the aid mechanism that was established to bypass the UN and Hamas. He also told the Knesset committee that even in a siege, the IDF would continue to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.
• Zamir told MKs that the Government’s plan put hostages at risk, put soldiers at risk, and did not have sufficient international legitimacy.
• There are also reports that Hamas has moved living hostages above ground into homes and tents in Gaza in an effort to make them into human shields. A video released this week of one hostage, Guy Gilboa-Dalal, showed him in the back seat of a car above ground.

Looking ahead: Qatar will host an “emergency summit” today in Doha of Arab and Muslim countries to formulate a response to Israel’s attack on Hamas leaders in its capital last week. Despite reports of Egyptian attempts to create a formal military alliance, the draft resolution circulated before the summit includes strong condemnatory language but no practical measures. 

• The Israeli public broadcaster’s Kan radio news bulletin reports that Israeli officials are bracing themselves for a wave of public condemnations once the IDF’s operation in Gaza City gets underway. 

What’s happened: The IDF and Shin Bet launched an attack on the Qatari capital of Doha yesterday in what is being described as “a precise strike targeting the senior leadership of the Hamas terrorist organisation.” The mission was led by the Israeli Air Force, with ten to fifteen jets participating and firing ten munitions at a single target. The US were informed of the operation as it was underway.

• It is understood that the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation was targeted including the Hamas leader in Gaza, Khalil al-Hayya, Zaher Jabarin, who leads Hamas in the West Bank, Muhammad Darwish, head of Hamas’s Shura Council, and Khaled Mashaal, head of Hamas abroad.
• While six individuals are reported to have been killed, five of those named were more junior Hamas members and one Qatari police officer. Thus far, there is no confirmation that the senior leaders have been killed while Hamas claims that they survived. Israeli defence officials are increasingly pessimistic that the intended targets were eliminated.
• The international community has almost universally condemned the strike. Prime Minister Starmer said that it was a violation of Qatar’s sovereignty, and risked further escalation across the region while reiterating his calls for an “immediate ceasefire, the release of hostages, and a huge surge in aid into Gaza.”
• President Trump said that “we are not thrilled about the way that went down today” while conceding that eliminating Hamas was a “worthy goal”, while the UAE condemned the attack “in the strongest terms,” while its Foreign Minister said the country was in “full solidarity with dear Qatar.” Saudi Arabia offered its “full support for the sisterly State of Qatar, and its condemnation of the blatant Israeli attack on the sisterly State of Qatar.”
• The incoming UN General Assembly’s President, Annalena Baerbock, branded the strikes “concerning” adding that “sovereignty and territorial integrity of all member states must be respected and not violated.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said yesterday of the operation in Doha that “the days are over when terror leaders will enjoy immunity in a particular place.”
• The IDF has issued an evacuation order for the whole of Gaza City ahead of its anticipated offensive which will begin in approximately a month. Approximately a million Palestinians are impacted by this order, and are being encouraged to evacuate to a humanitarian zone in al-Mawasi in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Elizabeth Tsurkov, a dual Israeli-Russian national who was being held hostage by Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq has been released to the US Embassy in Baghdad. An academic at Princeton University in the US, she was abducted while undertaking research in Iraq in 2023. While the circumstances surrounding her release are unclear, her cause was championed by the US and President Trump’s Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs, Adam Boehler.

Context: Israel’s strike on Doha follows the latest US ceasefire proposal. While Hamas indicated that it was willing to continue negotiations, it refused to accept the terms that were put to them. Shortly after, President Trump issued a “last warning” to the group, indicating there would be “consequences” unless they accepted a ceasefire.

• For some Israeli analysts, the yesterday’s strike underscored the importance of ending perceptions of Qatar’s immunity given that it had long sheltered and supported Hamas.
• One of the principal targets of the strike was Ghazi Hamad, who was quoted in the aftermath of the October 7 attack as saying, “Israel is a country that has no place on our land. We must remove it because it constitutes a security, military and political catastrophe to the Arab and Islamic nation… We must teach Israel a lesson, and we will do it twice and three times. The Al-Aqsa flood is just the first time, and there will be a second, a third, a fourth. Will we have to pay a price? Yes, and we are ready to pay it.”
• Ahead of the operation, there was reportedly a concern in the defence establishment about the high stakes of the operation, particularly about its impact on the negotiations for the release of Israeli hostages.
• Israel has not commented on its jets’ flight paths, with Israeli media reports indicating that the airplanes never entered Qatari airspace or, for that matter, the airspace of Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. Given Israel’s swiftness in issuing a statement after the strikes took place and before the jets would have been able to return to Israel, this suggests little concern on their part.
• Since 7th October 2023, the Israeli Air Force has successfully operating in or over Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and Qatar with no losses.

Looking ahead: The Hostages and Missing Families Forum has issued a statement indicating serious concerns about the Doha strike saying that a “grave fear now hangs over the price that the hostages may pay…[and that] we know from the survivors who have returned that the revenge directed at the hostages is brutal.”

• Despite attacking and criticising Netanyahu and Israel, the Qatari Prime Minister has indicated that Doha is still willing to continue mediating ceasefire talks.
• Later today, the United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting in response to Israel’s Doha air strike. It is expected that Israel will be strongly condemned against the background of UNGA which began yesterday.

700 days: There are forty-eight hostages still being held in the Gaza Strip, 20 of whom are thought to be alive as the IDF prepare to intensify their conquest of Gaza City.

• The families of hostages and their supporters demonstrated outside the President’s Residence in Jerusalem on Thursday night. Viki Cohen, whose son Nimrod Cohen a soldier held hostage, said, “Mr. President, it’s not just the hostages. It’s the values that we were taught and that we raised our children on. Values of mutual responsibility, of leaving no one behind, and that we are a people that sanctifies life, not land.” The demonstrators chanted in response, “All of them, now!”
• Yediot Ahronot quotes Liran Berman, the brother of twin captives Gali and Ziv, “We passed the 100 day-mark, we didn’t believe we’d make it to 200, we crossed the 300 day-mark. Now it’s 700. I feel numb to the symbolic numbers. It’s another day my brothers are in captivity. We’re but a step away from the second anniversary of October 7. And on the way there, we have another milestone that I’m even more afraid of, which is Gali and Ziv’s birthday on September 10, next Wednesday. I’m still there, stuck on October 7, 2023.” 
• Silvia Cunio, the mother of Ariel and David, told the paper, “For me, the number 700 is a number. It’s the longest October 7 of my life.” Eight people were abducted from her home that day. Six of them have returned, but not her two sons. 
• IDF Spokesperson Effie Defrin said last night that the IDF has already taken control of 40 per cent of Gaza City. He noted that infantry and armoured corps are operating in the Zeitoun neighbourhood,  and conducting manoeuvres on the outskirts of the Sheikh Radwan quarter, the northern neighbourhood of Gaza City. 
• Once more a ballistic missile was fired from Yemen last night, but disintegrated en route. Nine missiles have been fired from Yemen towards Israel since Operation Lucky Drop killed a dozen senior Houthi officials. Six of the missiles disintegrated, three were intercepted.

Humanitarian aid: On Thursday BICOM was granted access to the Palestinian side of Keren Shalom border crossing.

• BICOM saw large quantities of aid, mostly food including dried goods, fruit and vegetables as well as hygiene products awaiting distribution.
• During the 42-day ceasefire earlier this year, Israel facilitated the delivery of 300,000 tonnes, calculated to be enough to feed the entire population of Gaza for 5 months
• At present, aid is being provided through two main channels:
• The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has so far delivered 2.5 million food packages, each sufficient to feed a family of five for one week.
• In parallel, and in collaboration with the UN World Food Programme, international NGOs and donor nations, Israel enables the delivery of goods essential for kitchen cooking and bakeries across the Gaza Strip.
• The process involves aid being brought to one of four designated border crossings, where Israeli officials conduct security inspections. Once cleared, consignments are returned to UN organisations, which are then responsible for collecting and distributing them inside Gaza. Currently, between 300 and 400 trucks are entering Gaza on daily basis, with many more awaiting collection by the UN at the crossings.
• UN officials have stated that they face logistical challenges, citing limited transport capacity, insufficient time for collection, and too few crossings being open. In contrast, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation and private contractors are widely considered more efficient in collecting aid at the crossings and ensuring its delivery.
• For comparison, prior to the war an average of just 70 food trucks per day entered Gaza. At present, no aid is moving through the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt.

War v hostages: It is a consensual view that this war would have been over long over had the hostages been released.

• From the start, a profound dilemma has confronted decision-makers, amid concern that the dual goals of defeating Hamas and retrieving the hostages are contradictory. Nevertheless, the government has charged the IDF with creating the conditions to achieve both.    
• At the onset of Operation Gideon’s Chariot II, the IDF has informed families of hostages who are still alive that the army plans to ensure that the hostages will not be harmed during the operation despite their assessment that at least some of them are being held in Gaza City. 
• However, the IDF admits that it does not have precise information about where the hostages are. As part of the preparation commanders are trying to predict what Hamas will do with the hostages, whether they will try and move them (as they have in the past), or place them in the line of anticipated fire as human shields, or even kill them as happened with Hersh Goldberg-Pollen and five others, a year ago this week.  
• There is continued speculation whether securing a temporary hostage deal to release half of the living hostages is still possible. Supporters of the deal among senior security officials have argued that a partial deal would make it easier later on for the army to operate where the hostages had been kept and to target Hamas in those areas. That would bring the actual defeat of the terror organisation closer. 

Looking ahead: IDF activity in the outskirts of Gaza City is expected to expand and intensify in the coming days.

• Whilst there is no sign of an imminent breakthrough a partial, gradual deal based on the Witkoff proposal including a two-month ceasefire, redeployment of IDF troops and the release of ten living hostages and the bodies of 18 dead hostages is still possible. Neither Israel nor Hamas has ruled it out.

What’s happened: Tuesday saw a major call-up of reserve soldiers in preparation for Israel’s expected offensive into Gaza City. 

• Tens of thousands reported for duty as they are expected to relieve regular soldiers in the West Bank and along the northern border, who will prepare to enter Gaza in the coming weeks. 
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said about the upcoming operation, “Now we are facing the decisive stage.” Directing his comments to reservists, he said, “I know that you have paid a heavy price – at work, with studies and at home. We are fighting a stubborn and just war without peer. We do not forget for a moment what they did to us on October 7, the beheadings, the women who were raped, the babies who were burned and the hostages who were taken into the tunnels in Gaza. We are working to bring them all back.”
• Speaking to reservists on emergency call-up orders, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir told them, “We are going to increase and enhance the strikes of our operation, and that is why we called you. The IDF does not offer anything less than decisive victory. We will not stop the war until we defeat this enemy.”
• As call-ups increase, so too has opposition to the upcoming offensive. Protesters demanding a deal for the release of hostages converged on Jerusalem this morning, where some set fire to rubbish bins and at least one car and others mounted the rooftop of Israel’s National Library.
• The IDF announced yesterday that it had successfully eliminated Hazem Awni Naeem in a joint operation with the Shin Bet on August 28. Naeem was a senior Hamas terrorist who had, among other acts, held in captivity the three female Israeli hostages Emily Damari, Romi Gonen, and Naama Levy.
• A Houthi missile launch triggered sirens all over central Israel this morning. The missile was successfully intercepted by Israeli missile defence. Last Thursday, an Israeli operation in Sanaa eliminated several senior Houthi officials including the Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi.
• Also on Tuesday, Israel successfully launched a new satellite into space, Ofek 19. President Herzog, who attended the launch, hailed it as a significant Israeli technological accomplishment. “We are not only a Start-Up Nation, we are a Space Nation.” Israel’s space program effectively began with the launch of Ofek 1 in 1988. The new satellite, Ofek 19, will orbit the earth once every 90 minutes and is expected to be fully operational, providing high-resolution intelligence to the Israeli security services in both day and night, by sometime next week.

Context: With preparation for the ground offensive into Gaza City underway, the operation is expected to begin in mid-September. The operation will involve at least four divisions.

• In the initial stage, the IDF hopes to prompt civilians to move out of Gaza City into the Al-Mawasi region on the southern beach area of the Strip, where temporary accommodation is to be provided. There are an estimated 800,000 people in the city at present.
• The pace of operation will depend on the rate at which the civilian population vacates the area. 
• According to reports in the Arab media, there is concern that Hamas might move living hostages and disperse them across Gaza City to serve as human shields for Hamas strongholds. 
• Israel Hayom reports that the operational plan which was approved is different from the original one, which Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir had warned was a “strategic trap.” The current plan was formulated by Southern Command and is reportedly much more sensitive to the challenges facing the IDF as it enters a densely populated area. According to the report, “the IDF believes Gaza City to be strewn with IEDs and underground networks that will pose a major threat to the troops. The top IDF brass said the mission could be accomplished, but in a bid to protect the troops the operation is planned to be slow and accompanied by intensive firepower.”
• The latest estimates of the cost of the Gaza operation at around 25 billion shekels (about £5.5 billion). It is not clear if cuts will be made across government or if the deficit will be extended.   
• The long time-scale for the launch of the operation leaves open the possibility of a ceasefire and hostage deal that might avert it. Israel’s position on a hostage deal remains ambiguous, with leading figures close to the Prime Minister insisting on a comprehensive deal that would release all hostages, while Minister for Strategic Affairs Dermer reportedly told mediators that Israel has not entirely ruled out a partial deal. A partial deal would reportedly include a time-limited ceasefire and the release of ten out of the twenty hostages believed to still be alive.
• Amid military preparations the government continues to clash with the judiciary. A unanimous decision by the Supreme Court ordered the government to respond by September 14 whether it will convene the Appointments Committee in order to carry out its decision to dismiss the Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara. The decision does not actually force the government to do so, though it still leaves that possibility open after September 14. In the meantime, Baharav-Miara remains in her post, though the Government only invites her to meetings where the presence of the Attorney General is a legal requirement.

Looking ahead: The French President Emmanuel Macron will host a high-level international conference in New York together with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to advance the cause of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Macron called on the Trump administration to reverse its decision denying visas to senior officials from the Palestinian Authority, including the PA President Mahmoud Abbas. The conference was originally scheduled for June but was be postponed because of the Twelve Day War with Iran.

Inside Gaza: Two more bodies of hostages have been retrieved by Israeli security forces in Gaza.      

• Ilan Weiss, was killed on October 7th  while trying to defend his community, Kibbutz Beeri. His body was taken into Gaza. Separately, his wife, Shiri, and one of his daughters, Noga, were also taken hostage that morning. They were freed in November 2023.
• Idan Shtivi, a resident of Ein Hayam was 28 at the time of his death. He was murdered while  trying to rescue people from the Nova music festival, and his body was taken by Hamas.
• This now leaves 48 hostages, of whom 20 are believed to be alive and held by Hamas in horrific conditions for 696 days now. So far, 148 hostages have been brought back alive, along with the bodies of 59 others.
• Also on Friday, Master Sergeant Ariel Lubliner, a 34-year-old reservist from Kiryat Bialik, was killed in action in the southern Gaza Strip. Master Sergeant Lubliner was killed by friendly fire.
• He is the 900th soldier to have been killed so far in the war and the 75th to have been killed by friendly fire in an operational accident. A preliminary inquiry found that an IDF soldier in an outpost in the Khan Yunis area accidentally discharged a bullet. The bullet struck Lubliner, who was part of a logistical convoy and was roughly 200 meters away from the soldier who misfired.
• Palestinian sources (but not yet Hamas) have confirmed that Abu Obaida, Hamas’s military wing spokesman, was eliminated in an IDF attack in Gaza City. The Israeli Air Force bombed two floors of a residential building in Gaza City’s western Rimal neighbourhood. The IDF Spokesperson’s Office statement noted, “Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise munitions, aerial surveillance, and additional intelligence.” According to reports out of Gaza, ten people were killed in the strike.
• The IDF considered Obaida a key figure in Hamas not only because of his symbolic status and his high media profile, but also due to his close ties with senior Hamas officials. Chief of Staff Zamir commented, “In the Gaza Strip we attacked one of Hamas’s senior officials, Abu Obaida, after most of Hamas’s leadership was killed, and more is yet to come. Most of what remains of Hamas’s regime resides overseas, and we’ll get to them too.”

Context: The security cabinet convened on Sunday night and were presented with the latest plans to conquer Gaza City.

• The security cabinet did not discuss a hostage deal.  However, it is understood that negotiations have remained ongoing in an effort to find a formula that might lead to the hostages’ release, and those talks are likely to continue amid the new military operation to conquer Gaza City.
• The assassination of Hamas’s military wing spokesperson boosted hopes that Hamas might ultimately agree to be more flexible.
• For as long as President Trump gives Israel the green light to conquer Gaza City, preparations and planning are set to continue.
• In a bitter ironic twist, Hamas currently appears to favour a temporary deal, whist Israel now insists on arrangement to release all the remaining hostages in one go. This is a reversal of previous positions of both sides.  
• It is possible that Netanyahu and Trump are hoping Hamas will blink first and agree to make further concessions in the negotiations. If that doesn’t happen, Israel will be forced to prove that it is able to deliver on the promise it made to Washington to execute a short and effective military operation.
• There remain divisions within the security cabinet with IDF Chief of Staff Zamir and other security officials still in favour of reaching a partial deal that could see ten living hostages released.    
• Nevertheless, as the government has mandated preparations for the next operation continue. The first stage of the operation will be the evacuation of the civilian population to the southern Gaza Strip. As part of this effort civilian infrastructure is being prepared including tents and temporary housing, additional medical facilities and more food distribution centres.
• On the other side, Hamas has issued warnings in an attempt to deter the public from moving to the south, so that the public might continue to serve as a human shield for Hamas. So far it is estimated about 10,000 Palestinians have moved south in the last few days.
• Sunday was the first anniversary of the discovery of the six dead hostages—Carmel Gat, Eden Yerushalmi, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Almog Sarusi, Alex Lubanov and Ori Danino—who were murdered by their captors after IDF special forces drew near the tunnel in the southern Gaza Strip where they were being held.
• Beyond Gaza, it appears that IDF successfully struck the Houthi leadership in Yemen. The latest assessment is that almost the entire Houthi political leadership was eliminated in the strike including their Prime Minister Ahmed Ghaleb al-Rahwi and several other ministers. Israel believes that the director of their politburo, the director of the prime minister’s bureau, the cabinet secretary, the justice minister, the economy and trade minister, the foreign minister, the agriculture minister and the information minister were also killed.
• Assessments from Israeli intelligence suggest the attack severely damaged the Houthi’s hold on power and deepened the sense among its leaders that they are being hunted. This is also a message to the external leadership of Hamas.

Looking ahead: On Tuesday the large-scale mobilisation of thousands of IDF reservists is due to begin. September 2 was chosen by IDF Chief of Staff Zamir in order to make it easier for reservist parents to first help their children begin the school year.

• The reservists will study the lessons from previous operation, whilst others will replace standing army units in the West Bank and northern Israel.
• Israel is preparing for the latest international flotilla heading for Gaza. Around twenty boats set sail from Barcelona, Sicily, Greece and Tunisia, with more than 200 participants from 44 countries. Participants include several famous individuals from around the world: climate activist Greta Thunberg, the actors Susan Sarandon and Liam Cunningham, and the former mayor of Barcelona Ada Cola.

What’s happening: The Hamas delegation led by Khalil al-Hayya remains in Cairo for ongoing talks over a potential new hostage deal and ceasefire.      

• The talks are being led by the Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate Hassan Rashad. He has been in contact with Israeli officials and has kept them apprised of the developments, although Israel has not at this point formally joined the negotiations. 
• According to Arab media reports the latest proposal calls for an initial 60-day interim ceasefire, during which:
  • All 50 hostages are released in stages, in exchange for Palestinian security prisoners, including terrorists who murdered Israelis
  • Hamas will “freeze” military operations. (It is currently unclear what the freezing entails, some have understood this as refraining to continue fighting, whilst other analysts have interpreted this as the storing of weapons in warehouses, potentially under supervision of the Palestinian Authority.)
  • An IDF withdrawal and redeployment to agreed new lines under supervision by the US and Arab states. 
  • In that time, negotiations over a comprehensive agreement for future governance of the Strip. 
• On Wednesday, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen.  Zamir approved the “central idea” underpinning the IDF’s plans to conquer Gaza City. The plan includes the mobilisation of between 80,000 and 100,000 reservists.  
• According to the IDF, “The chief of staff stressed the supreme importance of improving the troops fitness and readiness to mobilise reservists, while granting R&R and providing breathing room ahead of the next missions.” 
• On Wednesday, over 370 trucks of humanitarian aid entered Gaza from both the north and south. According to COGAT, that is in additions to, “over 400 trucks were collected and distributed by the UN and international organisations. A further 119 pallets of aid were airdropped by international partners. Whist, “close to 140 patients and their caregivers exited Gaza through the Kerem Shalom Crossing to the Ramon Airport for treatment in a third country.” 
• Despite the flow of aid, more than 100 international organisations have accused Israel of preventing the entry of humanitarian aid. 
• COGAT rejected those claims saying that, “Israel acts to allow and facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, while Hamas seeks to exploit the aid to strengthen its military capabilities and consolidate its control over the population. This is sometimes done under the cover of certain international aid organisations, whether knowingly or unknowingly.”
• COGAT stressed that some international organisations have refused to comply with a new Israeli defence establishment policy, which includes a formal registration process requiring, among other things, the submission of a list of the organisation’s employees operating in Gaza for prior security screening. This process is “intended to safeguard the integrity of the humanitarian system while preventing the infiltration of terrorist elements into the aid mechanism.”
• It adds that such refusal “raises serious concerns about their true intentions and the possibility of ties between the organisation or its employees and Hamas…By contrast, nearly 20 international organisations that complied with the law and completed the registration process are bringing aid into the Gaza Strip regularly and in full cooperation. As evidence of this, approximately 300 humanitarian aid trucks enter the Gaza Strip every day through organizations registered under the new mechanism.”
• Relating to the West Bank, Finance Minister Smotrich announced that he would advance the construction of 3,401 new housing units in the controversial area of E1 that connects Jerusalem to Maale Adumim in the east. 
• The plan has been suspended for the past 20 years largely due to international pressure as it would effectively cut territorial contiguity between Ramallah, Bethlehem and east Jerusalem.  Smotrich was explicit in stating, “The E1 construction plans bury the idea of a Palestinian state and continue the numerous initiatives we have taken on the ground in the framework of the ‘de facto sovereignty’ plan that we began to implement upon the establishment of this government.” 
• Despite the rhetoric, the timeline for this initiative remains unclear. Similar plans have been raised in the past, but never implemented.  

Context: Following the impasse of the talks in Doha, the renewed talks are currently being led by Egypt. 

• Historically, in previous rounds of fighting between Israel and Hamas over the last decade and a half, it has always been Egypt that has led the ceasefire efforts. The only exception being President Obama’s efforts in 2014 to co-opt Turkey and Qatar into the process, which in hindsight only extended the fighting. 
• The Egyptian government has taken a harsh stance against the Muslim Brotherhood inside Egypt, whilst both Turkey and Qatar ideologically identify with them, and by extension with Hamas.    
• Earlier this week US Secretary of State Marco Rubio blamed Britain and France for the collapse of the ceasefire talks as the symbolic call for recognition of a Palestinian state emboldened Hamas’ negotiating stance.     
• A report in the Washington Free Beacon asserted that the UN discreetly modified its classification metrics so that it could declare a famine in Gaza. The UN’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), has accused the IDF of causing a famine in Gaza. However they did not disclose that they changed metrics of measurement, in order to classify the situation in Gaza as a famine. In the past, the IPC has declared famine only after finding that 30% of children in an area are suffering from acute malnutrition, as measured by comparing their weight to their height. But for Gaza, the IPC lowered the threshold to just 15%, and instead of getting accurate weight and height measurements, they just measured the circumference of children’s arms, a method known to be far less precise.
• Meanwhile parts of southern Gaza remain a quasi-autonomous area under the control of the Abu Shabab clan with IDF protection. Part of a pilot programme includes the establishment of a civilian mechanism that operates a school, a public kitchen, a field hospital, a police station and a mosque.  
• Of significance, the curriculum being taught by the school is a combination of Saudi and Emirati curriculum which including tolerance of Jews and Israel.

Looking ahead: Israeli negotiators have not yet joined the talks in Cairo, but their departure will signal that a potential deal is still possible.     

• Hostage families and their supporters have called for a one day strike on Sunday. The strike is supported by several local municipal authorities, universities and the Israel Bar Association along with private companies and other organisations and institutions. The main labour union the Histadrut will not join the strike, but will support individual acts of solidarity.
• The IDF is continuing to develop their plans for an operation in Gaza City which are expected to be presented to the security cabinet next week.