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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.
Armed Palestinians sit on trucks carrying humanitarian aid near the Zikim border crossing
Armed Palestinians sit on trucks carrying humanitarian aid near the Zikim border crossing between Israel and Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip, June 25, 2025. Photo by Ali Qariqa/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** נשק שמירה חמושים משאיות חרבות ברזל עזה פלסטינאים מלחמה מרכז הרצועה יום יום אוכל סיוע רחוב המונים

Updated July 23, 2025

Hostage talks accelerate with Witkoff heading to Rome

What’s happened: Media reports indicate that a ceasefire deal is close to completion. White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff plans to travel to Rome and meet senior Qatari and Israeli officials on Thursday. If more progress is made, Witkoff will continue on to Doha towards the end of the week.

  • Israeli officials expect Hamas to respond to the latest proposal sometime today.
  • Amidst ongoing reports of hunger in Gaza, governments and aid agencies took an increasingly harsh tone against Israel yesterday. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, spoke with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar by phone yesterday, and then posted on social media that “all options remain on the table if Israel doesn’t deliver on its pledges.” This followed reports from the Hamas-controlled Healthy Ministry of at least 20 deaths from malnutrition. 
  • While aid organisations condemned Israel for “blocking” aid, Israeli officials released video of 950 trucks of aid that Israel had let cross into Gaza at Kerem Shalom and Zikim for distribution by aid agencies (not the GHF) which had not been collected. “These trucks are just waiting there,” according to the official Israeli update, which again castigated the aid agencies for failing to distribute aid, for allowing aid to be siphoned off for the benefit of Hamas, and for lying about Israeli actions.
  • Israeli military officials have said that, “There are diseases in the Gaza Strip, including among children, but not in the context of malnutrition. There may be problems with food accessibility, and we need to expand the aid operations to solve them.” According to the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, (COGAT), an average of 71 trucks transporting fuel, food, baby formula and medical equipment enter the Gaza Strip daily. Some 2,500 tons of baby formula have been delivered in the past number of weeks, and 1.5 million food packages have been distributed to the Gazan public. IDF officials said, “Roughly 950 trucks are waiting to enter at the crossings, but the international organizations have delayed the  process and have contributed to the problem of food security in Gaza. Hamas has been sowing chaos around the aid distribution centers, firing in the area and attacking aid distribution truck drivers.”
  • Greece was the site of two incidents involving Israeli tourists and anti-Israel activists. On the Greek island of Syros an Israeli cruise ship was prevented from docking by a pro-Palestinian demonstration. And last night in Rhodes, a group of Israeli tourists were violently attacked by an anti-Israel mob.
  • A report in the New York Times suggests that a series of mysterious fires and explosions at strategic sites in Iran over the last two weeks are coordinated acts of sabotage, with both Iranian officials and some European diplomats in Iran quoted anonymously as believing Israel is responsible. Publicly, the Iranians have downplayed the incidents, referring to one as “controlled burning of weeds” and to others as “gas leaks.”
  • The Islamic Jihad terrorist group claimed yesterday that it had lost contact with the captors of Israeli hostage Rom Braslavski. This followed an incursion of Israeli ground forces into Deir el-Balah, a town in central Gaza largely untouched by Israeli military action that is believed to be where most of the living hostages are being held.

Context: The deal currently on the table calls for eight living hostages to be released on the first day of the ceasefire and two more on the fiftieth day. Eighteen bodies of deceased hostages are to be releaesed in three tranches over the sixty days of the ceasefire. On the tenth day, a full medical accounting of all living hostages is to be passed over to the Israelis.

  • According to a report this morning in Ynet, remaining gaps between the sides are minor. For example, Israel proposed withdrawing up to 1000 to 1200 metres from the Philadelphi Corridor, while Hamas demands the withdrawal be to 800 metres; and the number of terrorists with life sentences to be released by Israel stands at 100 in the Israeli proposal and 150 in the Hamas one.
  • Witkoff has previously emphasised that he will only travel to Doha if negotiations are close to coming to fruition.
  • Since May, Israel has allowed aid into Gaza by two means: through the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, mostly in the southern Gaza Strip, and through the UN-backed aid agencies that Israel has criticised for collaborating with Hamas, mostly in the north of the Strip. Official Hamas statistics report at least 1000 Palestinians killed in violence near aid distribution sites in this period, with 288 near the UN-backed facilities and 766 near GHF facilities. These numbers have not been independently verified.

Looking ahead: The Knesset will begin its summer recess this week which should lighten the pressure on the governing coalition.

  • Netanyahu currently leads a minority Government following the departure of two ultra-orthodox parties from his government in the last two weeks.

July 22, 2025

US Ambassador calls joint statement by foreign ministers ‘disgusting’

US and Israeli flags
US and Israeli flags

What’s happened: Foreign Ministers of 29 countries, including the UK, issued a joint statement yesterday on the situation in Gaza and the West Bank calling for an immediate end to the war and castigating Israel for the humanitarian situation in Gaza as well as for settlement activity in the West Bank.

  • Also yesterday, Foreign Secretary David Lammy spoke to Parliament about the situation in the Middle East, emphasising many of the same points made in the joint statement. In his comments, he referenced signing the statement with “31 Foreign Ministers,” a possible indication that some countries might have backed out at the last minute.
  • Lammy’s statement began with a short update on the situation in Syria, which condemned the violence in as-Suwayda this past week but studiously avoided taking sides.
  • The rest of his comments were devoted to the Israeli-Palestinian situation. Regarding the war in Gaza, Lammy’s position was clear: “The war in Gaza must end now. There is no military solution. Negotiations will secure the hostages. Further bloodshed serves no purpose. Hamas and Israel must both commit to a ceasefire now, and the next ceasefire must be the last ceasefire.”
  • The comments ended with a summary of actions taken by the Government on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in its year in office. Whether deliberately or not, the list of actions was decidedly unbalanced: restored UNRWA funding, suspended arms licences for Israel, humanitarian assistance for the Palestinians, sanctions packages on settlers, suspended trade negotiations with Israel, sanctions on far-right Israeli ministers, defences of international courts prosecuting Israel and Israeli leaders, and a “landmark agreement with the Palestinian Authority.”
  • Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement rejecting the joint statement, not just for its content but also for “sending the wrong message to Hamas” that international pressure on Israel could yield the benefits Hamas seeks more effectively than agreeing to release hostages. The joint statement, according to the Israeli MFA, “fails to focus the pressure on Hamas and fails to recognise Hamas’s role and responsibility for the situation. Hamas is the sole party responsible for the continuation of the war and the suffering on both sides.”
  • US Ambassador to Israel reacted to the joint statement on X stating: “Disgusting! 25 nations put pressure on Israel instead of savages of Hamas! Gaza suffers for 1 reason: Hamas rejects EVERY proposal. Blaming Israel is irrational.”

Context: Lammy told Parliament that “we are striving to keep open the prospects of a two-state solution,” and two sentences later boasted of restoring funding to UNRWA, seemingly without noticing the contradiction between the two positions. UNRWA is the agency that maintains the “refugee” status of Palestinians born in Palestinian territory living under Palestinian government.

  • Funding UNRWA doesn’t open the prospect of a two-state solution; it entrenches the Palestinian fantasy that justice can only be served when Palestinians can “return” to Israel and undo the existence of a Jewish state. The Palestinian demand for “return,” and not any Israeli insistence on settlements, was what torpedoed final status talks in all three rounds of negotiations that were held (2000-1, 2007-8, 2013-4).
  • Indeed, the gaps between the Israeli and Palestinian positions on which settlement areas would be evacuated and which annexed to Israel in territorial swaps were comparatively tiny and inconsequential to negotiations. But nothing in the joint statement nor in Lammy’s comments to Parliament yesterday addresses why there wasn’t a Palestinian state created in 2000 or 2008 (or for that matter 1948).
  • The claims about the controversial construction plan known as E1 are equally incoherent. The joint statement says that “the E1 settlement plan, if implemented, would divide a Palestinian state in two,” which is bad math and bad geography. A potential Palestinian state is already divided into two non-contiguous territories (Gaza Strip and West Bank).
  • Lammy’s statement is a bit clearer on the math, but just as muddled on the geography, claiming that E1 “would separate the West Bank’s north from its south,” but a glance at a map shows that this is entirely untrue, with the entire Jericho corridor still open (and the existing Israeli settlement of Maaleh Adumim still the easternmost area of Israeli settlement in the Jerusalem area).
  • If it were true that E1 could prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, then it would behove supporters of such a state to press the Palestinians to act now and do what they refused to do in each previous round of negotiations, namely make peace with Israel. Nothing in either the joint statement or Lammy’s comments reckons with Palestinian decision making or preferences or even treats the Palestinian side of the conflict as an actor making decisions and shaping events.
  • Nowhere is this more apparent than in the discussion of the hostages. Both the joint statement and Lammy’s speech to Parliament address the continued captivity of Israelis abducted during the massacre of October 7 as something that can only be addressed by “negotiations,” a stark contrast to their claims regarding Israel’s supposed obligations on aid or territory.
  • “A negotiated ceasefire offers the best hope of bringing them home and ending the agony of their families,” is the way the joint statement addresses the issue, implying that Israel’s failure to meet the ransom demands of their captors is true moral failure, and not the abduction itself. Lammy goes even further in blaming Israel’s leader for the hostages’ plight: “This offensive puts them in grave danger, but still Netanyahu persists.”
  • In contrast, nothing in both statements implies that “negotiations” could secure aid for Gazans or stop Israel’s military offensive. These are presented as things that simply must happen without conditions and which the UK and other countries are prepared to take affirmative action to pressure Israel on.
  • If there is any action which the UK Government or Foreign Secretary Lammy have taken to put pressure on the hostage takers or the allied countries who host Hamas leaders, it went unmentioned in both statements. On the contrary, Qatar is singled out for praise in both statements, and Turkey is never referenced at all.
  • Another point that is missed in the calls for “negotiations” as the only means for liberating hostages is that negotiations are ongoing and have been ongoing for quite some time. As the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs response to the joint statement notes, “there is a concrete proposal for a ceasefire deal, and Israel has repeatedly said yes to this proposal, while Hamas stubbornly refuses to accept it.”
  • In every version of a proposed agreement, Israel has been willing to pay an exorbitant ransom — in released terrorists, territorial withdrawals, and more — for even partial hostage releases. And despite the implication of both statements that Israel’s position hasn’t allowed for an agreement, it is the Israeli position, not Hamas’, that has considerably moderated in recent weeks along several key points of dispute.
  • The statement also criticises the allegedly “dangerous” mechanism for aid delivery. However the work of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is designed to circumvent Hamas expropriation of aid, that further perpetuates its control of the Strip. Earlier this week the GHF announced that it delivers around two million meals a day, and 82 million since it began.

Looking ahead: Lammy’s statement yesterday reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to a two-state solution  without any reckoning with why that solution has not yet been effected on the ground. Moreover, it pledged the UK Government to a number of policies which make the establishment of Palestinian state next to Israel almost impossible.

  • “Hamas and Israel must both commit to a ceasefire now, and the next ceasefire must be the last ceasefire,” according to Lammy. This is a demand to end the war with Hamas still in control of the Gaza Strip. No path to statehood exists with the Palestinian Territories governed by two competing governments, one of them a jihadist terrorist organisation. And no path to peace exists with Hamas still standing, newly legitimised by the international community, and regrouping and mobilising for the next October 7.
  • Funding for UNRWA is not funding for a Palestinian state, but rather funding against one. An investment in the refugee status of Palestinians in Palestinian territory does nothing for the upbuilding of a future state; it only ensures another generation of irredentism, rejectionism, and war.

July 21, 2025

IDF pushes to central Gaza as talks continue in Qatar

Humanitarian aid is distributed to Palestinians in Gaza City
Humanitarian aid is distributed to Palestinians in Gaza City, July 12, 2025. Photo by Ali Hassan/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** çøáåú áøæì òæä ôìñèéðàéí îìçîä îøëæ äøöåòä éåí éåí àåëì ñéåò øçåá äîåðéí

War with Hamas: For the first time since the war began, on Sunday the IDF called on residents of southern Deir al-Balah to evacuate and move south to Al-Mawasi. 

  • Deir al-Balah, located in central Gaza, is one of the only areas in which the IDF has not operated at any stage of the war, primarily due to the assessment that hostages were being held there.
  • In response to the move, the Hostage and Missing Families Forum issued a statement saying, “The hostages’ families were filled with dread and were rattled by reports that the IDF intends to operate in areas in central Gaza in which it has not yet operated. Can anyone promise us that that decision won’t cost the price of the loss of our loved ones? We expect the prime minister, the defence minister and top IDF officials to urgently explain to the citizens of Israel and the families what the combat plan is and how exactly it protects the hostages who are still in Gaza.”
  • The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation announced on Sunday that an additional two million meals were delivered yesterday. According to GHF Interim Executive Director, John Acree, “We’ve now delivered over 82 million meals in Gaza, a reflection of our team’s extraordinary commitment under tremendous pressure. But no milestone will ever be enough until every family in Gaza has reliable access to food. That’s why we continue to adapt our approach, improve communication about site openings, and prioritise safety at every distribution for civilians and our staff and partners. While all other aid groups have stopped delivering food reliably into Gaza, we continue to feed people. I once again call on the UN to work with us to deliver their stockpiles of aid sitting inside Gaza to those in need. We will do all we can to support their efforts.” 
  • In parallel, there is a degree of optimism in negotiations in Doha and Israel expects Hamas to respond positively to the new proposal for the IDF’s redeployment in the Gaza Strip. 
  • The ongoing talks are currently focused on reaching an agreement over the ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for the hostages.  
  • In an interview on CNN US Envoy for Hostages Adam Boehler said he was “more optimistic” than he had been, and added that “there’s a new sense of ability to get something done.” Boehler added, “I really want to see Hamas take action. And if they don’t, I will tell you something, Israel’s going to have to take some kinetic action.”

Looking ahead: Several Israeli media outlets are reporting that there could be a breakthrough in the hostage talks in the next few days. 

  • Everyone is still waiting for news that US Special Envoy Witkoff intends to travel to Doha, which should indicate an agreement is to be finalised. Similarly Israel is ready to send a senior delegation to Doha to expedite the talks.
  • The hostage families reject a partial deal, and insist on securing the release of all the hostages dead and alive. Nevertheless the current deal seems focused on the release of ten living hostages and the remains of 18 deceased hostages in exchange for a ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners.

July 17, 2025

Renewed optimism in Doha

BICOM News
BICOM News

What’s happened: In Doha, persistent gaps in the negotiations for a deal on hostages and a ceasefire appear to have closed slightly yesterday, with Israel agreeing to a much smaller territorial presence in Gaza during the ceasefire than what it had been demanding until now.

  • The new Israeli proposal for a withdrawal during the ceasefire left Israel with a much smaller perimeter inside the Strip than previous proposals. This proposal apparently came following pressure on the Israeli delegation from US envoy Steve Witkoff. Multiple media reports indicate that Hamas accepted the new Israeli map.
  • Regarding the negotiations, President Trump said yesterday, “We have some good news on Gaza and good news on a couple of things that we’re working on at a very high level.” Final details remain to be ironed out on the exact numbers of prisoners to be released in exchange for the Israeli hostages, as well as on the provisions of aid during the ceasefire. A senior Israeli official was quoted as saying that a deal now was “more likely than not.”
  • The apparent breakthrough in hostage negotiations came after Israel submitted a new proposed map of its redeployment in a ceasefire. 
  • In the updated map, Israel had dropped its demand to hold on to the so-called Morag Corridor. The importance of the Morag Corridor was in that it would leave the whole Rafah area in IDF hands. This was essential to any Israeli plan for a “humanitarian city” in Rafah.
  • This plan, touted by Defence Minister Katz, was vociferously opposed internationally, and in recent days senior officials in Israel both inside the army and elsewhere raised doubts about its legality and feasibility. If it is the case that the plan has been dropped — no such announcement has been made — than an insistence on the Morag Corridor made no sense. And indeed, Israel has apparently dropped this insistence.
  • This was not the only reported compromise to emerge from Doha. According to a report on Channel 12 News, Hamas will make do with an assurance from the Trump administration that he will do everything in his power to end the war, rather than a guarantee from Israel that the 60-day ceasefire will conclude the war entirely.

Context: The ultra-Orthodox Shas party announced that its ministers would be resigning from the Government over the Government’s failure to conclude legislation on draft exemptions for the Haredi public.

  • Earlier this week, the other ultra-Orthodox party in the Knesset, United Torah Judaism, also quit the Government. UTJ, however, left the coalition entirely, including committee chairs in Parliament, while Shas is only withdrawing its ministers from Government.
  • Neither move on its own can force early elections, but both are indication that the coalition in power since the last election in November 2022 may not make it all the way to the next scheduled election in October 2026. The Knesset will go into recess on July 27 and is unlikely to dissolve itself or move on early elections beforehand. It will reconvene on October 19.

July 15, 2025

Three more soldiers killed as ultra-Orthodox resign from government

United Torah Judaism party meeting
View of a United Torah Judaism party meeting at the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on June 9, 2025. Photo by Chaim Goldberg/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** יהדות התורה כנסת חברי כנסת

What’s happened: Three soldiers from the 401st Armoured Brigade’s 52nd Battalion were killed in the northern Gaza yesterday when their tank was hit by an explosive device. 

  • The soldiers killed were Staff Sgt. Shoham Menahem, 21, from Moshav Yardena; Sgt. Shlomo Yakir Shrem, 20, from Efrat; and Sgt. Yuliy Faktor, 19, from Rishon Letzion. 
  • The initial assessment is that the explosion was caused by an anti-tank missile, but other possibilities are being investigated. An officer was hospitalised in serious condition as a result of the attack as well.
  • The three MKs comprising the Litvak faction of United Torah Judaism, Degel Hatorah, announced last night that they would resign from the government and the coalition over the absence of a draft bill to allow ultra-Orthodox men to not serve in the military. The other (hasidic) faction of UTJ, Agudat Yisrael, had already quit in June. 
  • The latest resignations now include Deputy Transportation Minister Uri Makleb, MK Moshe Gafni, who resigned as head of the Knesset Finance Committee, and MK Yaakov Asher who resigned as head of Knesset Interior and Environment Protection Committee.
  • Their resignation followed instructions from their spiritual leader Rabbi Dov Lando who wrote, “Since the governing authorities are showing intentions to increasingly restrict the lives of Torah learners in various ways, through attempts to demean and crush them – and repeatedly fail to uphold their commitments to legally regulate the status of yeshiva students and dear Torah scholars, the crown of creation and the secret of its existence – it is therefore my opinion that participation in the government and coalition should be immediately terminated, including resigning without delay from all related roles. May God deliver us swiftly.”
  • Responding to their announcement, Leader of the Opposition Lapid said, “Netanyahu has once again failed in his effort to legitimise a bill for mass draft-dodging and refusal, precisely at a moment that the entire country’s heart has been broken by another three more ‘it has been cleared for publication’ notices.” (Cleared for publication refers to the wording the IDF use to report on casualties). 
  • Also on Monday the Knesset voted down a motion to impeach Israeli-Arab MK Ayman Odeh, leader of the Communist Party. 73 MKs voted for his removal, following his comments equating the hostages with Palestinian security prisoners, but this was short of the 90 votes needed to remove him from parliament. MK Odeh responded to the move, saying the attempt to impeach him had ultimately prompted the forces of light and liberalism to coalesce around the Arab parties. 

Context: The resignation of UTJ leaves the government with the slimmest majority of just 61 seats out of the 120 parliament. 

  • Their resignation adds further pressure on the Shas, ultra-Orthodox Sephardic party, to join their Ashkenazi allies and resign from the government.
  • Although weakened, it does not immediately endanger the government, as even though UTJ has joined the ranks of the opposition, they are not expected to support the dissolution of the Knesset, a move that would trigger early elections. 
  • Despite UTJ’s resignation, and the hard-right’s continued opposition to a ceasefire deal and hostage release, PM Netanyahu is still thought to have a majority in the cabinet to pass such a deal if conditions for it ripen. 
  • Israel continues to pay a high price in the war, with additional fatalities and extreme fatigue among some  soldiers. The 50 remaining hostages, 20 of whom are thought to still be alive, continue to languish in Hamas captivity. Whilst the IDF needs the infusion of new soldiers, the ultra-Orthodox continue to refuse to serve.
  • One political analyst noted the irony that the UTJ whilst part of the opposition will likely behave as if they are in the government, whilst Ben Gvir who remains a government minister behaves like he is in the opposition.  

Hostage negotiations:  The IDF are thought to be preparing new plans that could include a partial withdrawal from the Morag Corridor.

  • This followed a report on Channel 12 News that IDF Chief of Staff Zamir shared his reservations with the political leadership about the government’s plans to establish a humanitarian city in the southern Gaza Strip.
  • The planned “humanitarian city” would host around 600,000 Gazans. The area on which the compound is to be built is 15 per cent of the Strip’s territory, and is intended to house 27 per cent of Gaza’s population in the initial stage. 
  • The main purpose of the plan would be to remove civilians from active combat areas and secure the supply of aid that will not be controlled by Hamas. However the plan has received a great deal of criticism as it involves substantial relocation of the civilian population.
  • According to the report, the latest criticism from the Zamir was raised in the small cabinet meeting where he described the plan as “unfeasible.” adding, “It has more holes than [Swiss] cheese…. There are countless problems with this plan, and I’m not convinced that it comports with the objectives of the fighting.”

Looking ahead: US officials, including President Trump, continue to sound optimistic over a hostage deal. These are fateful days ahead as negotiating teams remain in Doha in a bid to reach an agreement.

  • Knesset protocol states that it takes 48 hours for resignations from the government to come into effect. There may be continued efforts in that time to reverse Degel Hatorah’s decision. 
  • The Knesset has two weeks left until it adjourns for its summer recess. A hostage deal requires the approval of the cabinet and is not contingent on the Knesset. The military draft bill however would require Knesset’s approval.

July 14, 2025

Negotiators remain in Doha, but hostage talks appear deadlocked

IDF forces continue to strike terrorist infrastructure and operatives across the Gaza Strip
IDF forces continue to strike terrorist infrastructure and operatives across the Gaza Strip. July 12, 2005. Photo credit: IDF

What’s happened: Israel’s small war cabinet once more convened on Sunday night in response to pressure from the mediators to prevent the collapse of the talks in Doha. 

  • The meeting addressed Hamas’s demand for an Israeli withdrawal from southern Gaza and the plan to build a humanitarian compound in Rafah. 
  • The key issue remains the extent of the IDF withdrawal, specifically whether they can retain the Morag Corridor.
  • During the meeting, the IDF presented an anticipated timetable for the construction of the “humanitarian city” in Rafah, to which Israel wants to move 600,000 residents of Gaza. The IDF estimates that the construction will take several months at least, and possibly up to a year. The prime minister reportedly responded that this timeframe was  not good enough and needed to be significantly shortened. 
  • Over the weekend, the IDF said that the Israeli Air Force struck more than 150 targets throughout the Gaza Strip, “including terrorists, booby-trapped structures, weapons storage facilities, anti-tank missile and sniping posts and additional terrorist infrastructure sites.”
  • In the northern Gaza Strip, IDF troops continue to operate in the area of Beit Hanoun, eliminating terrorists and dismantling terrorist infrastructure sites, weapons, and underground infrastructure. 
  • Based on intelligence, over the last two weeks the IDF have continued to target  Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commanders. The IDF released  names of several commanders, including those involved in weapons production, that were eliminated.     
  • Also on Sunday, a strike near a water distribution point reportedly killed ten people including several children. The IDF referred to the accident as a “technical malfunction.” The IDF admitted it had erred while targeting an operative from the PIJ.

Context: The weekend did not bring with it the long-awaited breakthrough in hostage deal negotiations in Doha. 

  • While talks have not (yet) collapsed, a hope remains that a deal can be reached, the optimism of last week appears to be dissipating.
  • Israel argues that Hamas has rejected the latest Qatari offer, whilst Arab sources blame the deadlock on Israel’s demand that the IDF remain in large parts of the Gaza Strip even during the ceasefire. 
  • As a result Trump’s envoy Witkoff has not yet travelled to Qatar.
  • Within the Israeli leadership, the military is signalling that the risks inherent in the agreement can be taken in order to make progress on getting the hostages released.
  • More broadly, the security establishment believes the war in its current form has run its course, whist Netanyahu’s position suggests that he intends to leave the option open to renew the fighting.   
  • Proponents of the plan for the “humanitarian city” claim its establishment would be a first chance for a non-Hamas entity to take control of the area. The plan has been heavily criticised by former Prime Minister Olmert, who said it would be a “concentration camp” and that forced movement of the population would constitute ethnic cleansing. 
  • Meanwhile, Ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich demanded guarantees from the prime minister that the fighting would be resumed after the first stage of the deal. Netanyahu said that any promise of the kind would derail the negotiations. 
  • Similar to earlier ceasefires, Netanyahu has a majority in the cabinet and in the security cabinet to approve the agreement when and if it is reached, but the scope of the deal that will be presented to the ministers remains unclear.  
  • The working assumption is that Smotrich and Ben Gvir might quit the government over a deal, but they would not bring it down by voting in favour of a motion to dissolve the Knesset.  
  • The continued air strikes in Bet Hanoun highlight the complexity of the ongoing war, where five soldiers were killed last week in an area held by the IDF since November 2023 and which is located fewer than 2.5 km from the town of Sderot. Despite the IDF presence above ground, and the evacuation of the civilian population last year, IDF intelligence estimates that 60-80 fighters remain in the underground tunnels network.      
  • Some analysts have interpreted the intensity of these recent strikes as signalling that Operation Gideon’s Chariots is nearing to an end. It was initially designed to pressure Hamas  to bring about a hostage release. This pressure included degrading Hamas’s military capabilities, targeting its leaders, taking control of more territory and by undermining Hamas’s governance while agitating Gaza’s citizens against it. 

Looking ahead: On Sunday night, President Trump repeated that talks about Gaza are ongoing and expressed his hope that the issue would be concluded in the coming week.

  • Israel’s Foreign Minister Saar is visiting Brussels today and meeting with various representatives of the European Union. In parallel, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani is also expected to be in Brussels. 
  • On Tuesday the EU is due to discuss a proposal to remove Israel from the EU-Israel Association Agreement, however for this to pass the vote must be unanimous, which is highly unlikely. Saar is expected to highlight the increased supply of aid and fuel to counter allegations of starvation in Gaza.   
  • A ministerial committee will convene on Monday afternoon to consider the removal of Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara. 
  • In parallel, the trial of Prime Minister Netanyahu has resumed. The State Attorney’s Office representatives will continue today their cross-examination and will focus on Case 1,000 involving gifts received by the Netanyahu family.

July 10, 2025

IDF faces attacks as Gaza talks reach critical stage

IDF forces continue to operate against terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip
IDF forces continue to operate against terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip. July 10, 2025. Photo credit: IDF

What’s happened: Israel faces threats across multiple fronts with another soldier killed in Gaza, another Houthi missile intercepted, and the stabbing of a soldier in the West Bank, as well as continued efforts to reach a hostage deal.

  • First Sgt. (res) Avraham Azulai, a 25-year-old resident of Yitzhar, was killed in action yesterday in the Gaza Strip. He served in the Southern Command’s engineering unit and was killed during an attempted abduction in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. An initial investigation found that terrorists emerged from a tunnel shaft and attacked IDF troops who were operating in the sector. They tried to abduct Azulai, who was operating a bulldozer. He fought with them and they fatally shot him. Security forces on the scene opened fire on the Hamas operatives, hit some of them and thwarted the attempted abduction. 
  • A Houthi missile was intercepted early Thursday morning with air raid sirens triggered in the area of Jerusalem, parts of the south, the greater Tel Aviv area and coastal area. No one was injured.
  • A soldier was stabbed during an operation in the Jenin area. The rest of the troops opened fire and eliminated the assailant. The moderately injured soldier was sent to a hospital.

Context: Despite some degree of optimism, there has not yet been a breakthrough in the hostage talks. The latest optimism is based on reports that the remaining gaps are being closed.

  • The major outstanding issue is understood to be the deployment of IDF troops specifically relating to the Morag Corridor. Officials on the negotiating team told Channel 13 News that Israel would agree to alter its troop deployment on the Morag Corridor and had made “substantial progress on the way to a deal.”
  • The Morag Corridor is a 12km paved road – in some places 1.5km wide – which was only established three months ago and separates the Rafah border area from the city of Khan Yunis. The government sees the corridor’s importance as allowing for the establishment of a “humanitarian city” for refugees that would be beyond the jurisdiction of Hamas. For Hamas it is essential to regain full control over southern Gaza.
  • One option for resolving the disagreement could include a redeployment that is larger than previously offered, but which would be carried out gradually, dependent on progress in the negotiations to end the war. 
  • On another issue, Israel has reportedly agreed in principle that Qatar among other states would start to provide resources and funds to rebuild the Gaza Strip, possibly even during the ceasefire. Hamas has demanded this as a part of the guarantees that the intention to end the war is serious.
  • Israel hopes that other Arab states will be involved in order to dilute Qatar’s influence. However, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states will invest before Israel declares the war over.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu is still in Washington, whilst also engaged in maintaining his government. He is facing pressure from the right wing to oppose the proposed redeployments and calls to end the war. The ultra-Orthodox coalition partners meanwhile have threatened to leave the government over a bill for ultra-Orthodox males to serve in the military which includes personal sanctions against those who refuse. 

Looking ahead: Netanyahu might meet with Trump for a third time before his scheduled departure from Washington on Thursday evening. 

  • President Trump has repeated that he is optimistic there will be a deal “this week or next.”

July 9, 2025

Trump and Netanyahu meet for a second time

Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump
Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump. Photo credit: Prime Minister of Israel / X

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu met President Trump in the Oval Office last night. It was the second meeting of the two leaders in as many days. 

  • Although there was no media event before the meeting, and no joint statement was released when it ended, reports indicated that the discussion centred around negotiations to bring about a new ceasefire and hostage deal, and that President Trump exerted “heavy pressure” on Netanyahu to come to an agreement.
  • After the meeting was over, Netanyahu said in Hebrew, “We focused on the efforts to free our hostages. We haven’t relented from that for a moment, and this has become possible because of the military pressure that is being exerted by our heroic soldiers. Regrettably, that effort has exacted from us painful prices, the fall of the best of our sons, but we are determined to achieve all of our objectives: The release of all of our hostages, the living and the deceased alike; the elimination of Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities; and, by so doing, to ensure that Gaza does not pose a threat to Israel anymore.”
  • Also at the White House yesterday, a Qatari delegation arrived to discuss the hostage deal. It is not known if they met with any Israeli officials.
  • Israel allowed 22 trucks loaded with aid from the international community to enter the northern Gaza Strip, where Israel’s preferred aid distribution mechanism, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, does not operate.
  • The UK maritime security firm Ambrey confirmed yesterday that the bulk carrier Magic Seas had sunk in the Red Sea. It had earlier come under a combined attack by Houthi forces using rockets and explosive-laden remote control boats. Another bulk carrier, Eternity C, was also attacked in a similar manner yesterday with four people killed.
  • Two senior terrorists were eliminated in separate IDF operations in Lebanon yesterday. In southern Lebanon, Israel targeted Hussein Ali Muzhir, the head of firepower for the Zahrani sector in Hezbollah’s Badr Unit. In Tripoli, in the north, an IAF air strike eliminated Maharan Mustafa B’ajur, a key Hamas commander in Lebanon.

Context: There has not yet been a breakthrough, but reports in Arab media indicated that Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff could be headed to Qatar in the coming days to announce the finalisation of an agreement on a ceasefire and hostage release

  • It is widely understood that he will not go to Qatar unless the sides have actually reached an agreement. According to Witkoff himself, most of the outstanding issues of contention have been resolved in the last few days. “We had four issues, and now we’re down to one after two days. I’m hopeful that by the end of this week, we will have an agreement that will bring us into a 60-day ceasefire.” 
  • Witkoff did not itemise the issues he was referring to, but they are largely believed to be related to aid and aid distribution, military redeployments, the conditions for ending the war, and the involvement of outside parties in postwar Gaza governance.
  • Among the issues that have ostensibly been resolved in the negotiations is the question of humanitarian aid deliveries. The sides have apparently agreed to some neutral mechanism for areas that the IDF vacates in the ceasefire. This arrangement will not cover areas still under Hamas control, nor will it cover areas that remain under IDF control, where the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is expected to continue operating. But it will mean that the GHF cannot operate in areas currently under Israeli control, from which Israeli forces will withdraw during the 60-day ceasefire. For Israel, this is a recognition that the sheer amount of aid that is expected to enter Gaza during the ceasefire is beyond the operational capacity of the GHF.
  • Hamas has throughout insisted on guarantees that the ceasefire could lead to an end of the war. According to a report from Sky News, Trump conveyed a personal message to Hamas via Palestinian-American businessman Bishara Bahbah with his commitment to end the war. The contents of the message were not released, but, according to the report, they were sufficient to convince the Hamas leadership in Qatar. At the same time, Israeli officials have repeated their commitments not to end the war until Hamas is eliminated as a governing authority in Gaza and a military threat to southern Israel. 
  • The last issue under contention appears to be related to IDF redeployments during the ceasefire. Hamas demands that Israel withdraw down to the Philadelphi Corridor, the area along the border with Egypt, while Israel has agreed only to withdraw to the Morag Corridor, this would leave the city of Rafah under IDF control.

Looking ahead: If an agreement is indeed reached, Steve Witkoff is expected to arrive in Doha either Friday or Saturday to announce its immediate implementation.

  • When Netanyahu returns to Isreal, he will face a deepening coalition crisis over the Haredi draft exemption. A major ultra-orthodox newspaper, Yated Ne’eman, published an editorial this morning highly critical of Prime Minister Netanyahu for allegedly not fulfilling his promises to the ultra-orthodox public to protect them from the draft. It compared Netanyahu to Churchill, both as a “brilliant and talented” leader in war and one who was ousted from power once the war was successfully ended.
  • A compromise deal reached between the Prime Minister and the Attorney General will allow the Prime Minister to nominate a new appointee to head the Shin Bet in 60 days. By that time, the agency is expected to conclude its investigation into the so called Qatargate affair. With the investigation concluded, the possible conflict of interest which had, according to the Attorney General, rendered Netanyahu’s earlier appointment nomination illegal, will have been lifted. The nomination will then go to the Senior Appointments Advisory Committee.

July 8, 2025

Netanyahu and Trump coordinate future moves

President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu
President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Photo credit: The White House / X

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in Washington and had dinner with President Trump in an event that was not open to media.

  • Before the meeting, Trump announced that talks on a new nuclear deal with Iran were scheduled and he once more pledged to do everything to ensure Iran would not acquire nuclear weapons. “We have scheduled Iran talks,” he said, “and they want to talk. They took a big drubbing, I think, when we hit the three sites, really, I would say the three sites, not just the one. The one was a big one.”
  • Israeli officials in Washington briefing journalists claimed that talks in Doha on a new hostage deal were reaching a conclusion. One much quoted anonymous source said that the deal was “80 to 90 percent agreed on.” In other places, the quote, attributed to a senior official briefing reporters on the flight to Washington, was that Israel had achieved “80 to 90 percent” of its goals in the negations in Doha. 
  • Kan News’ diplomatic correspondent Suleiman Maswadeh reported from Washington that according to Israeli sources there it was possible that an agreement would not be signed this week but rather next. Maswadeh further reported that the delays last week were caused by Hamas rejecting the Witkoff framework, and that Hamas categorically rejected the conditions that might have led to an immediate release of all hostages, rather than the emerging framework for a partial release during the ceasefire.

Gaza: Five IDF soldiers were killed and fourteen others injured yesterday in an incident in Beit Hanoun, in the northern Gaza Strip.

  • All five served in the Netzah Yehuda Battalion of the Kfir Brigade. They were identified as Staff Sergeant Meir Shimon Amar, 20, from Jerusalem; Sergeant Moshe Nissim Frech, 20, from Jerusalem; Sergeant First Class (res.) Benyamin Asulin, 28, from Haifa; Staff Sergeant Noam Aharon Musgadian, 20, from Jerusalem; and Staff Sergeant Moshe Shmuel Noll, 21, from Beit Shemesh. 
  • 37 soldiers have been killed since the end of the ceasefire in March this year. 888 IDF soldiers have been killed in total since the war began on October 7, 2023.
  • The deadly incident in Beit Hanoun occurred roughly one kilometre from the border fence in an area that has been in full control of the IDF since the ground operation began in late October 2023 — including during the two ceasefires. Army Radio reports that it is still unclear how a terrorist squad was able to operate in the area, to plant at least four explosive devices that were remotely detonated.
  • In Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir met with troops and reiterated his commitment to the war’s two principal objectives, defeating Hamas and liberating the hostages. “Alongside Iran, the central theatre is in Gaza. We are determined and we will lead here to victory… All roads lead to one place: hostages and victory.”

Context: The talks in Washington are focused on the hostage deal, the anticipated nuclear talks with Iran and wider regional moves towards normalisation between Israel and Sunni Arab states.

  • Talks in Doha dealt not just with the proposed 60-day ceasefire and partial hostage release, but with some general terms regarding the end of the war that would be negotiated during the ceasefire. Leaks to Israeli media suggest that the Israeli Government still rejects a role for the Palestinian Authority in the Strip after the war. “There will be another force in the Strip that will include Palestinians, for sure, but not the PA,” according to the senior Israeli official briefing reporters on the flight to Washington.
  • Israel Hayom claims that Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected proposals from Washington that would have included a rhetorical commitment to a Palestinian state as a way of securing a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. According to the report, the Prime Minister’s position remains that Palestinian statehood “was permanently removed from the table in the wake of the October 7 massacre.”
  • The US lifted sanctions against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the organisation that was led by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa until he seized power in the country. As of June 23, the organisation is no longer designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation by the US State Department.
  • On a visit to Damascus on Saturday, the Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, also announced that the UK would be resuming diplomatic ties with Syria. Despite this, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains a proscribed organisation.
  • American mediated talks seek to reach an agreement between Israel and Syria. US officials are reported to believe that an agreement with Syria will soften Netanyahu’s position on Gaza and allow him to make concessions during the negotiations to end the war during the ceasefire he might otherwise have struggled to push through politically.
  • Lebanon, too, is looking to reach an agreement with Israel. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced that he seeks a security arrangement with Israel which would see the latter fully withdraw from Lebanese territory and commit Lebanon to disarming Hezbollah. 
  • Besides the regional peace initiatives, another goal of the Prime Minister’s visit in Washington is to secure US commitments on Israel’s interests in Iran. Specifically, the Prime Minister reportedly wants US support for a future attack on Iran should the Islamic regime either move its stockpile of highly enriched uranium or rebuild the core facilities damaged by Israeli and US air strikes in June, including not just those related to its nuclear programme but also its missile production sites. 
  • Additionally, Israeli officials seek a US commitment to demand zero enrichment on Iranian soil as a condition for any future nuclear agreement, a position the Trump administration was deliberately ambiguous about in the earlier negotiations conducted in the spring of this year.

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Yisrael Katz has asked the IDF to prepare a “humanitarian city” to be built on the ruins of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip  

  • A key indicator of progress in the hostage talks will be when US envoy Witkoff joins the talks in Doha.
  • Netanyahu will remain in Washington for at least two more day: Later today, he will meet  Vice President JD Vance and Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson. Tomorrow, he is scheduled to meet with Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth and on Thursday with leaders of the Jewish community. Sources in the prime minister’s entourage said there is no intention of extending the visit to the US into the weekend this time.

July 7, 2025

Netanyahu arrives in DC, as negotiators meet in Doha

PM Netanyahu with his wife Sara departing for Washington DC.
PM Netanyahu with his wife Sara departing for Washington DC. July 6, 2025. Photo credit: Avi Ohayon, GPO

What’s happening: Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with President Trump later today. Before that he will meet with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and with Secretary of State Rubio. 

  • President Trump told reporters last night that he believed that a Gaza ceasefire is close. He also said that he would discuss with Netanyahu a permanent agreement with Iran. 
  • On Sunday, Israel dispatched a negotiating team to Doha. A deal is not thought to be imminent and talks are expected to take several days. 
  • Before departing, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel was working to reach an agreement to free the hostages under conditions Israel had agreed. He added that the negotiating team that was sent to Doha had been given clear instructions. 
  • On Saturday night, the Israel government voted to expand the distribution of humanitarian aid in northern Gaza. It is understood that the distribution would be handled by international aid organisations, and not Israel’s preferred partner the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
  • The cabinet meeting included a heated stand-off between IDF Chief of Staff Zamir and Finance Minister Smotrich, who along with National Security Minister  Ben Gvir objected to the expansion of aid, as it is inevitably seized by Hamas.

Context: The return of Israeli negotiators to Doha is a source for optimism although officials have cautioned that gaps remain.  

  • The negotiators are reportedly working on bridging these gaps, following Hamas’s positive response towards the Witkoff outline, with the group agreeing to certain parts but adding several caveats. 
  • The latest reported details suggest eight hostages are to be released on the first day and two are to be released on the 50th day. The remains of deceased hostages will be released on three separate dates—five on the seventh day, five on the 30th day and eight on the 60th day. 
  • Israeli officials believe that two factors have caused Hamas to show greater flexibility in ceasefire talks: The first is the IDF’s military advances over the last two months which have led to Hamas losing control over more territory and some parts of the population as well as the continued elimination of some of its commanders; the second is Israel’s successful strike against Iran. 
  • The IDF has suggested that Operation Gideon’s Chariots is now close to completion and has endorsed a deal at this stage. 
  • Over the weekend, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum stated its opposition to a deal that would free the hostages in stages. “The method of stages and partial agreements creates unbearable uncertainty for every single family, all of which yearn for some sort of salve after 638 days – whether that be to embrace their returning loved ones or having a grave to mourn at.” 
  • Speaking at a rally yesterday in Tel Aviv, Yotam Cohen, the brother of IDF hostage Nimrod Cohen, said “People who take the responsibility to send soldiers into battle need to have the courage to pay the price to get them back home.”

Unresolved issues: Hamas has three key demands:

  • The IDF withdraw to the positions it held in early March, prior to Operation Gideon’s Chariots. This includes swaths of territory mainly in southern Gaza, where Israel currently holds the Morag Corridor between Rafah and Khan Yunis. 
  • Maintaining the Morag Corridor will allow the IDF to continue to control the southern Gaza Strip and the aid distribution centres, and will also allow it to set up a humanitarian zone that is not under Hamas’s control. 
  • Since the beginning of the operation, the IDF has also made advancements in the north, in Bet Lahiya, Bet Hanoun and Sajaiya. 
  • Hamas demands that only the UN oversees aid distribution. The Israeli government’s – whilst continuing to cooperate with the UN mechanism – has serious concerns that it only perpetuates Hamas governability.         
  • Without control of the aid, Hamas is struggling to pay its troops’ salaries and recruit new ones.
  • Hamas also hopes to regain control over areas in which the GHF currently operates in the south. 
  • Israel has demanded a different distribution mechanism that would prevent Hamas from commandeering the supplies, including international supervision.
  • Hamas has also demanded that sufficient aid be delivered to allow bakeries, hospitals and other civilian infrastructure to operate at full capacity. Israel remains concerned some of the material will be siphoned off and used for military purposes.
  • A third Hamas demand is a US written guarantee that the ceasefire will be upheld throughout the negotiations over the war’s end, even if the negotiations continue beyond the 60th day. 

Longer term: Any agreement would last 60 days with the real challenge arriving at the subsequent stage of the talks when even more sensitive issues would be discussed. These include:

  • Agreed IDF deployment and future rules of engagement.  
  • Exile of Hamas leaders, even if only symbolic.
  • Demilitarisation, and the disarming of Hamas as well as their future functioning in Gaza.
  • Future governance and makeup of the new administration. 

Yemen: Israel attacked Houthi terrorist targets in Yemen Sunday night for the first time since the war against Iran ended. 

  • This came after a renewed albeit sporadic Houthi missile attacks against Israel over the past week.
  • Prior to the strike, Operation Black Flag, the IDF Spokesperson’s Office issued a public warning in which he called for the evacuation of the seaports in Yemen.
  • The IDF subsequently confirmed that it had struck the ports of Hodeida, Salif and Ras Issa, where Galaxy Leader was also struck. The Galaxy Leader is a commercial ship that was hijacked by the Houthi regime in November 2023. 
  • Twenty IAF war planes took part in Operation Black Flag and fired over 50 munitions. Defence Minister Katz warned, “the rule for Yemen is the rule for Tehran”, alluding into Israeli doctrine towards both regimes. 
  • Yemen fired two missiles in retaliation. Sirens were sounded in the south and centre, no casualties were reported. 
  • After hijacking the ship, the Houthis installed radars and used it to track maritime movement in international waters, effectively turning the hijacked ship into an intelligence vessel which is why it was struck as a military target.
  • The Galaxy Leader, which is owned by a British company that is partially-owned by the Israeli Rami Ungar, had been leased to a Japanese company. 
  • The Houthis released the 25 crew members, from Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, the Philippines and Mexico in January 2025, during a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Their release was coordinated with Hamas.

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