What happened? Shortly before 5am this morning, based on intelligence that Hezbollah was about to launch missiles against central Israel, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out strikes against Hezbollah launchers.

• The IDF announced that about 100 fighter jets struck targets in various locations in southern Lebanon. Strikes were reported in the areas of Kunin, Beit Yahoun, Haddatha, Rachaf and A-Tiri among others.
• The IDF Spokesperson’s Office announced that “Since 5:00, we have taken out thousands of launchers that were aimed at the north in a coordinated attack by roughly 100 IAF planes. We were prepared for a large Hezbollah strike on the north, and we also attacked Hezbollah drones accordingly.”
• Quoting Western intelligence, the New York Times reported that Israel’s preemptive strike was aimed at launchers that planned to fire rockets at Tel Aviv at 5 am. Israel believes that the group planned to fire a small number of precision-guided missiles at the area of Glilot, which is where Mossad headquarters and IDF Unit 8200 (Israeli Intelligence Corps unit that focus on Signals Intelligence) are located.
• At approximately 5.30, Hezbollah began an assault on Israel. The group announced that it struck “deep in Zionist territory and towards a specific Israeli military target that will be announced later” detailing that it fired drones at a high-quality military target deep inside Israel amid simultaneous rocket fire on IDF bases and Iron Dome batteries in northern Israel.
• Hezbollah claims to have launched more than 320 rockets including at areas such as Safed and Acre, and at 11 military bases.
• According to the group, it has now “completed the first phase of the response to the [Shukr] assassination”
• The IDF reported most of the rockets Hezbollah launched were intercepted. One person in Acre is currently known to have been wounded by shrapnel and is listed as being in light condition.
• US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Gallant ” to discuss Israel’s defense against Lebanese Hezbollah attacks,” according to the Pentagon, “and reaffirmed the US’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s defense against any attacks by Iran and its regional partners and proxies.”
• After being temporarily closed, Ben Gurion airport reopened at 7am.
• The Home Front Command has imposed restrictions on gatherings stretching from central Israel to the north. Up to 30 people can gather in an open area, and up to 300 in buildings. Beaches will be closed to the public.
• Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz this morning said: “Israel is confronting the axis of evil led by Iran, which has the explicit aim of destroying Israel. We do not seek a full-scale war – but we will do whatever it takes to protect our citizens.”
• Foreign Minister Katz addressed dozens of foreign ministers around the world this morning, “calling on them to support Israel”.

Context: Since Hamas’ assault against Israel on October 7 Hezbollah – an integral part of Iran’s Axis of Resistance against Israel – has fired over 6600 missiles at Israel.

• Over the past week, the group has escalated its strikes towards civilian communities on the Golan Heights, which have not been evacuated.
• On the 20^th August, Hezbollah fired 115 rockets and drones into Israel while a drone attack on the 19^th killed one Israeli soldier.
• Also last week, in the face of troop shortages and in preparation for potential escalation in the North, the IDF has called up approximately 15000 previously exempted and demobilised reservists.
• The current barrage is in response to Israel’s killing of senior Hezbollah operative Fuad Shukr (for more information see BICOM’s recent report here).
• Defence Minister Gallant has been in almost daily contact with his US partner Defence Secretary Austin.  This is part of their close coordination which also includes substantial US troops deployed to the region as part of their force projection.

Looking ahead: It remains to be seen whether a second round of missiles and drones will be launched by Hezbollah, and if so, the extent to which it will succeed in striking central Israel as reportedly planned.

• Such a strike could lead to wider escalation including Israeli strikes at Hezbollah targets in Beirut.
• Hezbollah maintains that Israel failed in its pre-emptive strike, and that it succeeded in hitting a significant Israeli site. Hassan Nasrallah is due to deliver a speech in which he will allegedly ‘refute Israel’s claim’ that it disrupted the group’s attacks.
• US Air Force General Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who began an unannounced visit to the Middle East Saturday is currently in Jordan and will travel to Egypt and Israel in the coming days for military discussions

What’s happened: the IDF has said that it launched “extensive” strikes on over ten sites in southern Lebanon in response to a barrage of over 50 rockets being fired at the Golan Heights town of Katzrin.

• Israeli Air Force jets have targeted Hezbollah weapon depots, buildings, and a rocket launcher, according to an update from the IDF.
• This morning, the IDF confirmed that a drone strike destroyed a cell of Hezbollah operatives planning to launch rockets at Israel in the southern Lebanon’s Tayr Harfa.
• Several projectiles were also fired at Israel from Lebanon, most likely targeting Mount Meron where a sensitive Israeli military air traffic control centre is located. At least one projectile was intercepted while two others landed on the mountain. No injuries were reported.
• The IDF has announced that it conducted over 30 airstrikes on targets in the Gaza Strip killing dozens of gunmen. These targets included Hamas compounds, weapon depots, and rocket launching positions. Ground operations continue in Khan Yunis, Deir al-Balah, Rafah, and central Gaza’s Netzarim Corridor. An Israeli soldier, Sergeant Ori Ashkenazi Nehemya was also killed in Rafah by anti-tank missile.
• The IDF has killed two Palestinians in a drone strike on the West Bank city of Tulkarem. The strike was carried out against a cell of gunmen during a joint raid being conducted by the IDF, Shin Bet, and Border Police. No Israeli casualties were reported.
• Despite the near breakdown of ceasefire and hostage release talks and dwindling expectations of an imminent breakthrough, Israeli negotiators have returned to Cairo.
• According to Channel 12, Netanyahu sent Israel’s negotiators to Cairo with updated maps showing a reduced IDF deployment along the Philadelphi Corridor, indicating some willingness to compromise on this matter.

Context: Israeli strikes in Lebanon follow statements by PM Netanyahu hinting at Israel’s offensive capabilities and intent to use them at a visit to the Ramat David IAF base near Haifa.

• Netanyahu said that Israel is “ready for any scenario, both on the defensive and on the attack” and referred to the air force as “our iron fist that can strike the soft underbelly of our enemies”.
• During her speech at the Democratic National Convention where she accepted the party’s presidential nomination, Vice President Harris reaffirmed her support for Israel and her commitment to supporting its right to self-defence, while also acknowledging the humanitarian toll of the war in Gaza and calling for an immediate hostage-ceasefire deal to end the fighting and return those held captive by Hamas.
• These comments come as the US continues to press for a ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas.
• An unnamed Egyptian official criticised part of the American approach. “The Americans are offering promises, not guarantees…Hamas won’t accept this, because it virtually means Hamas will release the civilian hostages in return for a six-week pause of fighting with no guarantees for a negotiated permanent ceasefire.”
• The US has now deployed a second aircraft carrier to the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln and its accompanying strike group arrived in the Middle East on Wednesday, and will join the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

Looking ahead: negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage deal continue in Cairo.

• The status of the Philadelphi Corridor which runs along the Egyptian-Israeli border in Gaza, is understood to be a central sticking point. Netanyahu believes that an Israeli presence remains vital to preventing Hamas from re-arming, while Hamas says Israeli forces must withdraw entirely.
• Hamas is also reportedly concerned by Israel’s insistence on keeping troops deployed in the Netzarim Corridor, an east-west strip Israel cleared during the current war that prevents Palestinians’ (including Hamas operatives) free movement between north and south Gaza.
• Egypt has reportedly rejected the presence of Israeli troops on the Philadelphi Corridor, but is willing to take more security measures to secure the border. Egyptian sources reportedly believe that Hamas is prepared to consider an arrangement whereby international forces are deployed both at the Philadelphi Corridor and at the Netzarim Corridor separating the south of the strip from the north.
• Hamas meanwhile continue to reject various proposals put to them by Egyptian and Qatari mediators and failed to attend the most recent round of talks held in Doha.
• An Israeli official has told the Times of Israel that while a normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia was not possible before November’s US presidential elections, it could still be inked during the “lame duck period” between November and January. The official suggested that it will be too difficult for Congress to authorise a bilateral US-Saudi security pact Riyadh is seeking as part of any normalisation deal pre-election, and it would become significantly easier for all parties after November, whatever the election’s outcome

What’s happened: Hezbollah launched a salvo of over 50 rockets at the Golan Heights this morning as ceasefire talks falter with little sign of a hoped for breakthrough. Shortly after, Hezbollah launched several drones in the same direction.

• While most were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence system, some hit the town of Katzrin causing significant damage to a number of homes and injuring one Israeli citizen.
• Hezbollah has taken responsibility for these attacks, saying that they were targeting an IDF base and responding to overnight Israeli airstrikes in eastern Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley. The IDF says that this airstrike was targeting a Hezbollah arms depot.
• Yesterday, Hezbollah fired 115 rockets and drones into Israel while a drone attack on Monday killed one Israeli soldier. While yesterday’s larger barrage did not cause any deaths or injuries, rocket impacts did spark fires in open areas causing significant damage.
• For the first time since October 7th, an Israeli strike in Lebanon killed a Fatah official, the Palestinian group claimed, informing AFP that the strike hit the car of official Khalil Makdah in the southern city of Sidon.
• These attacks come as US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, leaves the Middle East after his ninth visit since 7^th October without making significant progress towards a much hoped for ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Although Israel has accepted the US bridging proposal, Hamas has rejected it claiming that it is an American attempt to buy time “for Israel to continue its genocide”, and urged a return to the previous proposal.
• Secretary of State Blinken has urged both sides to show “maximum flexibility” while an unnamed US official criticised Prime Minister Netanyahu for “maximalist” remarks about maintaining control of the Gaza-Egypt border. The Prime Minister has insisted that Israeli troops remain in the strategic Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors in the southern and central Gaza Strip.
• An unnamed source in the Israeli negotiating team has also accused Netanyahu of sabotaging the talks with his Tuesday remarks saying “the Prime Minister knows that we are in a critical period during which we’re working on solutions for the Philadelphi Corridor and Netzarim ahead of the next summit…he knows there is progress — and then he puts out statements that are the opposite of what was agreed upon with the mediators”.

Context: The heightened push for a ceasefire deal comes amid the returning of six hostages’ bodies to Israel yesterday. Five of the returned hostages were previously known to have died.

• The Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has said that Israel’s “centre of gravity” is gradually transitioning from the Gaza Strip to the northern front amid preparations for a major escalation with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• In a visit to the 36^th Division in northern Israel, Gallant said: “Our centre of gravity is moving from south to north, we are in a gradual change, we have more tasks in the south, we have hostages, we need to bring them, we are negotiating on this and I believe we will succeed in reaching results, this is a very important thing…We want to return the [displaced] residents to the north, we want to return them safely. If it is possible to do this in an agreement, we will do it in an agreement”.
• The Israeli Police and Shin Bet are said to be investigating the possibility that Iran and Hezbollah were responsible for Sunday night’s attempted suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. While Hamas and PIJ claimed responsibility, the attacker is not known to have been affiliated with either group and used a relatively sophisticated device potentially indicating Iranian or Hezbollah direction.
• Combat operations continue in the Gaza Strip, with the IDF confirming that it conducted airstrikes on 30 targets in the past day. These included buildings used by terror groups, armed terror operatives, rocket launching sites, tunnel shafts, and observation posts with fighting taking place in Rafah, Khan Yunis, and the Netzarim Corridor.

Looking ahead: In the face of troop shortages, and in preparation for potential escalation in the North, the IDF has called up approximately 15000 previously exempted and demobilised reservists.

• The reservists set to be recalled to duty are those who were released from service due to the army closing units or reducing manpower in certain units, and who are younger than the exemption age, which is 40 for most soldiers, 45 for officers, and 49 for specialists. According to Channel 12, around 170,000 such exemptions have been granted over the past 10 years resulting in significant manpower shortages.
• An IRGC spokesman has said that the wait for Iran’s retaliation against Israel for Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination “could be long”. Speaking in Tehran yesterday, Alimohammad Naini said that “time is in our favour and the waiting period for this response could be long”, and that “the enemy” should wait for a calculated and accurate response.
• Two of the border towns most impacted by Hamas’s attacks on 7^th October – Beeri and Kfar Aza – have announced that they will not participate in a centralised government organised memorial ceremony, and instead hold their own. Officials at Beeri have said “this isn’t an alternative ceremony, this is the ceremony of the community”, while representatives of Kfar Aza are reported to be “disappointed” by the government’s commemoration plans

What’s happened: Israel is anticipating potential significant attacks by Iran and Hezbollah and preparing for hostage release and ceasefire negotiations later this week. This past weekend also saw rocket fire from Lebanon targeting northern Israeli communities and a shooting attack in the Jordan Valley.

• On Sunday afternoon, a 23 year old Israeli civilian Yonatan Deutsch from Beit Shean was killed in a terror attack. Terrorists opened fire in the area of the Mehola Junction, in Jordan Valley while he was driving to visit his fiancé.
• In a second car, Anas Jaramana, 32, from the northern Arab town of Muqeible, was injured in moderate condition and taken to a hospital. Whist the terrorists escaped, Hamas took responsibly for the attack.
• The IDF Chief of Staff Halevi, visited the scene of the attack on Sunday evening ,and said, “Our mission is to catch these terrorists and reach them before attacks occur; here, we did not succeed. The clock counting down to catch the terrorist cell that carried out this attack is ticking backwards. We will reach them; we will continue to fight terrorism, accompanied with the deep sorrow for every victim of this terrorist attack, we will only strengthen our operations against terrorism.”
• Hezbollah fired a barrage of approximately 30 rockets toward northern Israel on Sunday night. Most fell in open areas and no injuries were reported.
• In Gaza the IDF launched a new operation in Khan Yunis following “intelligence indicating the presence of terrorists and terror infrastructure there”. The IDF also struck a terror cell in the Rafah area after its members were identified emerging from a tunnel shaft.
• On Saturday the IDF struck a Hamas command and control centre, which was embedded inside a mosque in the Al-Taba’een school compound. The IDF initially thought at least 19 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists were eliminated, yesterday they expanded that assessment to 38.  Whist Palestinian sources claimed around 100 people were killed.
• According to the IDF, “The strike was carried out using three precise munitions, which, according to professional analysis, cannot cause the amount of damage that is being reported by the Hamas-run Government Information Office in Gaza…..Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of a small warhead, aerial surveillance, and intelligence information.”
• In a separate incident an IDF soldier, Omer Ginzburg was killed by a sniper in the southern Gaza Strip. 690 Israeli soldier have been killed since October 7, including 330 since the IDF began its ground operation in Gaza on October 27^th. 

Context: Israel remains on alert for retaliations by both Iran and Hezbollah following Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh’s assassinations in Beirut and Tehran.

• The latest assessment suggests that an attack might be carried out either simultaneously or in succession, sometime this week.
• Defence Minister Gallant commented on these threats yesterday, saying, “Our enemies threaten to harm us in ways they have not done before. We hear these messages coming from the direction of Iran and Hezbollah…. Whoever harms us in a way that has not been done in the past, is likely to be hit in a way that hasn’t been done in the past. The IDF has significant capabilities.”
• The UK, France, and Germany have reiterated their support for a hostage deal and cease fire in a joint statement released earlier today. It calls on”Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks that would further escalate regional tensions and jeopardise the opportunity to agree a ceasefire and the release of hostages. They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardise this opportunity for peace and stability.”
• US Defence Secretary Austin has continued his close coordination with Israeli Defence Minister Gallant. In this latest call, according to the Israeli MOD they, “discussed interoperability with the wide range of US military capabilities deployed to the region.”
• In its latest demonstration of support and deterrence, the US ordered the deployment of a guided missile submarine to the region and to expedite the arrival of the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.
• There is still hope that a wider confrontation can be avoided and instead progress can be made on the hostage negotiations.
• Among the outstanding issues of contention:
  • Israel is insisting on keeping a presence along Philadelphi Corridor and Rafah crossing on the Egyptian border to prevent further Hamas smuggling and rearmament.
  • Similarly Israel is insisting on a mechanism to prevent the return of armed gunmen to northern Gaza.
  • Israel has also requested the names of the hostages to be freed in the first stage of the deal.
  • The sides also need to agree the identity of the Palestinian security prisoners, and whether Israel will veto some of the most dangerous terrorists. They also need to agree who will be allowed to return to Gaza or the West Bank or elsewhere.
• The are indications that Israel is willing to show increased flexibility on some of these issue, for example reaching understandings with Egypt and the US over preventing smuggling in the south.
• American, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators could present their bridging proposals when they meet on Thursday, despite the latest comments from Hamas saying they will not send representatives to the talks.

Looking ahead: Senior US officials including CIA Director William Burns and National Security Council Coordinator Brett McGurk are scheduled to arrive in the region. They are expected to visit Israel before going to the summit on Thursday, either in Qatar or Egypt.

• The IDF remains braced for attack, particularly tonight and tomorrow which coincides with the 9^th of Av fast, the traditional day of Jewish national mourning. Throughout the ages, the day is synonymous with Jewish tragedy.
• One possible scenario is an infiltration attack by Hezbollah’s Radwan force attacking an Israeli civilian community or military outpost on the border.
• The manhunt continues for the perpetrators of the shooting attack in the Jordan Valley.

What’s happened: On Thursday night the leaders of the US, Qatar and Egypt issued a joint statement imploring the sides to finalise a deal.

• According to their statement, “There is no more time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay. It is time to release the hostages, begin the ceasefire, and implement this agreement.”
• “As mediators, if necessary, we are prepared to present a final bridging proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties.”
• Following the announcement Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement that Israel would send the negotiating team on August 15^th to finalise the details.
• The Hostages and Missing Families Forum issued a statement thanking the leaders for their commitment to free the hostages.
• Despite the cautious optimism, fighting has continued in the south and north.
• Sirens were heard early this morning, in Ashkelon and Zikim, one rocket from Gaza was successfully intercepted.
• Inside Gaza, the IDF continues to operate in the south and centre of the Strip. As part of their efforts to prevent Hamas from rebuilding its fighting capacity the IDF launched a new incursion into Khan Younis after calling Palestinian civilians to evacuate.
• According to the IDF over the past day, the Israeli Air Force (IAF), “struck approximately 60 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military structures in which terrorists were operating, weaponry, and additional terrorist infrastructure.”
• In Rafah, “troops located rocket launch pits along the Philadelphi Corridor that were situated a few dozen meters away from the Gaza Strip’s largest fuel storage facility for civilian use. Any damage to the facility – including rocket fire from these nearby launch pits – could endanger the lives of tens of thousands of Gazan citizens in the surrounding areas. The IDF did not damage the fuel storage facility while dismantling the launch pits.”
• The IDF statement added this is, ”a further example of the systematic abuse of civilian and humanitarian infrastructure by the terror organisations in Gaza.”
• In the north Hezbollah continues launching rockets, missiles, and attack drones into northern Israel. Over 50 rockets were fired yesterday towards Nahariya and Shlomi, some were intercepted while others landed in open areas.
• This morning, more rockets were fired at Kiryat Shmona and Manara.
• The IDF continues to target Hezbollah assets in response. Last night, “the IAF struck a Hezbollah command centre in the area of Hanaouay and terrorist infrastructure in the area of Ayta ash Shab in southern Lebanon. Additionally, the IAF struck a Hezbollah launcher in the area of Ayta ash Shab from which rockets were fired yesterday.”

Context: Israel remains on high alert for the anticipated revenge attack for the dual assassinations of Ismail Haniya in Tehran and Fuad Shukr in Lebanon a week ago.

• According to Hezbollah leader Nasrallah the delay in the attack is part of a psychological strategy designed to keep the Israeli population under constant fear.
• The IDF Chief of Staff Halevi described his forces being on “peak readiness, both in offense and in defence.” Adding, “We will know how to carry out a very rapid offensive anywhere in Lebanon, anywhere in Gaza, anywhere in the Middle East, above ground and below ground. We will send a very clear message to our enemies, those who attack us, those who in every speech talk about how they will destroy the state of Israel, we will harm them, and we will continue to grow stronger.”
• Israel continues to receive the support and backing from key allies. Defence Minister Gallant has kept daily contact with senior US defence officials. Whilst the US has now deployed F-22 fighter jets to the region as part of their force projection.
• The cautious optimism around the hostage talks is at least partly based on the latest assessment that Hamas leader Sinwar is now keen to reach a ceasefire as soon as possible and does want not to wait for the possibility of a clash between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran.
• Sinwar is thought to be under renewed pressure from the remaining commanders of the military wing who have seen the devastation wrought upon them in 10 months of fighting.
• It is thought up to 75 per cent of Hamas forces have now been destroyed. Sinwar is one of the only senior leaders that remains alive.
• The Israeli assessment is that around 90 per cent of their rocket capacity has either been fired or destroyed. Yet as is evident from yesterday, they maintain a limited ability to still fire rockets into Israel.
• The view remains that Hamas have held back some of the long-range rockets for symbolic use on special occasions, such as to respond to the assassination of senior Hamas officials.
• Today marks the 308^th day of the war, 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity.
• The parameters of the agreement are based on the principles as outlined by President Biden at the end of May, and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2735.
• Earlier in the week  the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) held an emergency meeting in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah at the request of Iran and the Palestinians.
• Acting Iranian Foreign Minister, Baqeri Ali Bagheri Kani told members, “it is expected that they support Iran’s response to the killing. Iran’s action is not only a defence of its own sovereignty and national security but also a defence of the stability and security of the entire region.”
• It remains unclear whether Iran intends to execute its ‘revenge operation’ exclusively on its own, or whether it will also enlist its proxies. Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have all declared their desire to join an attack.

Looking ahead: Whist Israel remains on high alert for a potential multi front attack, there is hope that the prospect of reaching a hostage deal will avert an escalation.

• Media reports have suggested that President Macron relayed messages to Lebanese officials asking Hezbollah to hold off any attack, so as not to detract attention from the Olympics
• Others have suggested that they will attack on the symbolic date of Monday night / Tuesday which coincides with the Jewish fast day of national mourning – the 9^th of Av.
• Renewed hostage talks have been scheduled to be resumed next Thursday August 15^th in either Doha or Cairo.

What’s happened: In the face of a potentially imminent Iranian attack in response to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, Israel continues to come under Hamas and Hezbollah fire from both the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

• Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, the US is said to believe that an Iranian response against Israel may be imminent. This would likely be similar to mid-April’s mass missile and drone launches against Israel, but on a larger scale and also supported by Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
• The US and its regional allies are urging restraint and de-escalation, with Jordan’s Foreign Minister making a rare visit to Iran over the weekend in a last-ditch effort to prevent Iran retaliating against Haniyeh’s death.
• According to a Wall Street Journal report from Sunday, Iran has rejected pleas for moderation and is determined to retaliate even if doing so sparks a regional war.
• The US has also said that it will deploy additional military assets to the Middle East to defend Israel from an expected Iranian attack. These will likely include fighters jets and additional ballistic missile defence-capable cruisers and destroyers.
• While several international airliners have cancelled flights to and from Israel, the country’s airspace remains open with no indications of imminent closure.
• General Michael Kurilla, Commander of US CENTCOM, will arrive in Israel today to complete preparations with the IDF to defend against this likely attack.
• Over the weekend, Hezbollah also fired dozens of drones and rockets at northern Israel. The majority were intercepted, but two Israeli soldiers were moderately wounded in a drone strike near Kibbutz Ayelet HaShahar earlier this morning. The IDF has responded with air and artillery strikes at Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
• Yesterday, Hamas fired at least 19 rockets from the Gaza Strip in its largest barrage for weeks. While predominantly targeting the border community of Sufa, sirens were also triggered in Kiryat Malachi which is 40km away. No injuries were reported, and the IDF later said that it destroyed the rocket launchers used in the strikes.
• Elsewhere in the Gaza Strip, the IDF continues its efforts to degrade and destroy Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure. A particularly large tunnel big enough to drive a vehicle through was uncovered in the Philadelphia Corridor, and is one of dozens that has been identified and destroyed. The IDF has also struck Hamas command and control centres embedded within the Hassan Salame and Nasser schools in Gaza City.
• The IDF has conducted counter-terror operations in the West Bank city of Tulkarem, eliminating nine terrorists in two airstrikes that took place on Saturday. The terrorists killed were associated with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and part of cells responsible for the deaths of Israeli soldiers and police officers earlier in the year.
• Two Israelis were also killed in a stabbing attack in the Tel Aviv suburb of Holon on Sunday. A Palestinian terrorist from the West Bank was killed by responding Israeli police officers.

Context: Over 300 days into OPERATION SWORDS OF IRON, there is little prospect of hostilities abating in either the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or further afield where Iran maintains a network of proxies as part of the “Axis of Resistance”.

• Following Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, Egypt and Qatar have both questioned the future of negotiations between Israel and Hamas intended to secure a ceasefire and the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip. Haniyeh was a senior member of Hamas’s negotiating delegation, and President Biden has branded his assassination as “unhelpful”.
• In the event that negotiations restart and then fail, the US has now guaranteed that Israel will be able to resume its military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: Israel is preparing for Iran’s likely retaliation to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran while the US works to revive April’s defensive coalition.

• While the US has warned that Iran’s expected attack against Israel may come as early as today, it has also been suggested that it could take place on the fast of Tisha B’Av which begins next Monday evening and commemorates national disasters experienced by the Jewish people.
• It is expected that this attack will be similar to April’s, but on a larger scale and involve hundreds or thousands of drones and missiles being fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
• The US is currently working to reconstitute the international coalition which came together to defend Israel against Iran’s attack in April. Coordinated by CENTOM, it is hoped that this coalition will see the UK, US, France, UAE, Jordan, and other Sunni Arab states join forces and protect Israeli airspace against missiles and drones fired by Iran and its proxies.

What’s happened: Last night Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on the phone with President Biden and Vice President Harris.

• According to the White House, “The President reaffirmed his commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The President discussed efforts to support Israel’s defence against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive US military deployments.”
• Today Defence Secretary, John Healey, who is visiting the region, is expected to arrive to Israel.
• Earlier this week the UK Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Barbara Woodward said, “The UK is resolute in our commitment to Israel’s security. We support Israel’s right to defend itself in the face of such aggression, in line with international humanitarian law.”
• On the ground yesterday, Hezbollah resumed firing rockets into northern Israel aimed at several communities in the western Galilee.
• In a speech on Thursday, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah warned of a harsh response following the assassination of his Chief of Staff. Nasrallah warned, “Because they have picked a fight with everyone, they don’t know where the response will come from … the response will come separately or coordinated.” Nasrallah also warned that the war had entered a “new phase”.
• This morning, IDF announced that during a “targeted, intelligence-based operation, the IDF eliminated the terrorist Mohammed al-Jabari, who was deputy head of weapons manufacturing for the Islamic Jihad.”
• In addition, “IDF troops eliminated approximately 30 terrorists in the area of Rafah.”
• Separately, more details have emerged on Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran. According to the New York Times, he was killed by an explosive device that had been placed in his room more than a month in advance of his visit, and detonated once it was confirmed he was inside.

Context: Israel’s security forces remain on high alert as the country braces for a response to the assassinations this week of Shukr and Haniyeh.

• The IDF has cancelled all leave to ensure they stand at maximum capability and readiness.
• In addition to increased aerial patrols, dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets were waiting on tarmacs, ready to launch an attack or defend against one.
• With the conversation with leading allies and the rare visit of a UK defence secretary Israel will be hoping that the international coalition that stood with Israel when Iran attacked on April 14 will be similarly effective.
• On a recent visit to Israel Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, Commander, US Central Command met with the Minister of Defence Gallant, Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi, and other key security figures. The leaders shared intelligence assessments and discussed the security challenges faced in both the southern and northern arenas of Israel as well as broader regional security concerns. The discussions emphasised enhancing defence and technological cooperation to strengthen Israel’s security and bolster deterrence against regional threats.
• Israel’s confirmation of Deif’s death yesterday is a significant moment in the war. He was directly involved in operational military decisions and led the coordination among the Hamas commanders.
• However Haniyeh was seen as more of a symbolic figure. The Israeli assessment does not believe his assassination will hamper the hostage negotiations.
• Due to the IDF’s campaign in Gaza, it seems Hamas’s capabilities have been significantly reduced. The group’s failure to respond forcefully to the assassination to the targeting of either Deif or Haniyeh is testament to this.
• Haniyeh’s assassinated on Iranian soil, while there as an official guest of the regime is deeply humiliating for the Iran leadership and will therefore elicit a response.
• In April, when Iran attacked Israel with over 300 missiles and drones, its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen were not directly involved.
• The response this time may include a coordinated attack possibly from a range of Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen as well as Lebanon and Iran itself.

Looking ahead: Both the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders will be buried today in Qatar and Lebanon respectively.

• Hamas has called for a ‘Day or Rage’ and for all mosques around the world to include a memorial prayer for Haniyeh.
• After the funeral, the Iranian axis could launch an imminent attack on Israel, whilst it could be that they will wait for a few more days.
• US officials have also raised a scenario in which attacks may take place on US forces in Iraq and Syria.