What’s happened: the UK has announced that it is suspending 30 arms exports licences to Israel “for use in Gaza over International Humanitarian Law concern.”

• This decision is due to take immediate effect, and impacts 30 out of 350 licences. It is the result of a review into International Humanitarian Law compliance commissioned by the Foreign Secretary on his first day in office.
• The list of suspended items includes important components including fighter aircraft, helicopters and drones, as well as items which facilitate ground targeting that would be used in Gaza.
• Parts for F35 jets will be exempted, unless they were to be directly exported to Israel.
• The Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has emphasised that the suspension will not change the UK’s steadfast support for Israel’s security, adding that the decision will be kept under review.
• Defence Secretary Healey has said that the suspension of licences “will not have a material impact on Israel’s security”, and the Foreign Secretary has confirmed that “the UK continues to support Israel’s right to self-defence in accordance with international law.”
• Export licences identified as not being for military use in Gaza were identified and confirmed as not requiring suspension.
• Israeli Foreign Minister Katz, said the British decision “sends a very problematic message to the Hamas terrorist organisation and its backers in Iran” adding that Israel was disappointed “by the British government’s recent series of decisions, including the latest decision regarding security exports to Israel…” Katz added that “Israel is a law-abiding state that operates in accordance with international law and has an independent and respected judicial system – we expect friendly countries, such as the UK, to recognise this all year-round, especially just days after Hamas terrorists executed six Israeli hostages, during intense negotiations for the release of the hostages and for a ceasefire, and in light of the recent threats by the Iranian regime to attack the State of Israel.”

Context: While the UK is considered Israel’s second-staunchest western ally after the US, UK arms imports do not represent a substantial part of Israel’s defence procurement.

• In addition to its own sophisticated domestic production, Israel is a substantial importer of arms, at least 70 percent of which come from the USA. Imports from France, Germany, and Italy also constitute a larger percentage than those from the UK.
• UK arms exports to Israel have been quantified as sitting at only 0.9% of the country’s total.
• Conversely, Israel supplies the UK 2.87% of its arms imports, with sales significantly increasing since 2006 with the escalation of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
• UK-Israel defence trade is of mutual benefit, and the relative importance of the trade relationship is arguably greater to the UK military than to the IDF.
• Out of those goods licensed by the UK for export to Israel, a large proportion are for dual use goods for non-military use, or for goods for incorporation in Israel before onward export to a third country.
• Within the military goods, the majority are for components rather than complete systems or sub-systems. Many UK licences for military equipment are for components for incorporation into US-manufactured platforms which were then re-exported to Israel.
• Significant Israeli arms imports include the Hermes-450 UAV, Watchkeeper UAV, and M-113 Spike-NLOS (an Israeli fourth-generation fire-and-forget anti-tank guided missile and anti-personnel missile with a tandem-charge HEAT warhead).
• Elbit Systems UK has won 25 public contracts, totalling more than £355m, since 2012, according to data supplied by Tussell, which provides details on UK government contracts. Elbit also runs a joint venture called Affinity Training with US company KBR. Affinity has a contract with the UK MoD worth £500m over 18 years to train UK pilots at RAF Cranwell in Lincolnshire.
• There is no indication that the UK has ceased, or made any attempt to cease its weapons purchases from Israel during this period.
• For further background on UK – Israel arms trade read our previous research paper here.

Looking ahead: Despite this decision, it is hoped that bilateral Anglo-Israel relations will remain strong and not be significantly impacted.

• While Iran is yet to launch its promised retaliation against Israel for Ismail Haniyeh’s July assassination in Tehran, there is no indication that the UK would not intervene to protect Israeli airspace as it did in April.
• The UK has stressed its continued support for Israel’s security, which the FCDO has described as “steadfast” in its statement on the matter.

What happened: On Saturday night, the IDF recovered the bodies of six murdered hostages who had been held by Hamas since 7^th October from a tunnel under Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.

• The six whose bodies were recovered were Hersh Goldberg-Polin (23), Eden Yerushalmi (24), Ori Danino (25), Almog Sarusi (27), Alex Lobanov (33), and Carmel Gat (40).
• According to autopsies, they were killed 48-72 hours before their bodies were recovered. The autopsies also indicated multiple shots at close range as the cause of death indicating they were executed.
• Channel 12 News has reported that security officials have suggested they were executed as Hamas feared that Farhan al-Qadi who was rescued days earlier would divulge details about where the other captives were being held.
• US President Joe Biden said he was “devastated and outraged” to learn of the captives’ deaths, while praising Hersh Goldberg-Polin’s parents who had recently spoken at the Democratic National Convention.
• Prime Minister Starmer wrote on Twitter/X that he was: “completely shocked at the horrific and senseless killing of six hostages in Gaza by Hamas” adding that “Hamas must release all the hostages now, and a ceasefire deal must be agreed by all sides immediately to end the suffering.”
• Foreign Secretary Lammy, took a similar line, writing that the “UK condemns Hamas’ appalling murder of six innocent hostages in Gaza in the strongest terms” The. In addition to offering his deepest condolences to those grieving, Lammy added that “Hamas must release all the hostages immediately, and all sides must accept the deal on the table to end this war.”
• Hamas politburo member, Izzat al-Rishq, blamed the hostages’ deaths on Israel and the US, because Israel had not agreed to a ceasefire deal. He made no comments about their cause of death and did not respond to Israeli claims they had been executed.
• The Hostages and Missing Families Forum have responded angrily, saying those hostages would still be alive if the government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu had reached a deal with Hamas for their release.
• An estimated 500,000 people attended demonstrations, at 40 locations across the country organised by the Forum, with 300,000 in Tel Aviv alone. At one point, protestors blocked the Ayalon Highway.
• Yesterday, the Histadrut Labor Federation (Israel’s main trade union) announced a general strike in response to the government’s failure to secure the release of the hostages. Histadrut chief, Arnon Bar-David, said that “a deal is more important than anything else”.
• The general strike began at 6.00 this morning and is also being supported by the Israel Business Forum, which represents most private-sector workers from 200 of the country’s largest companies.
• Ben Gurion airport has partially joined the strike, with flights not taking off for most of the morning.
• In the West Bank, three Israeli police officers were killed in a shooting attack near the Palestinian city of Tarqumiyah yesterday. The gunman was later identified as a former member of the Palestinian Authority’s Presidential Guard, and was killed by Israeli special forces in Hebron later that day.
• In the north, two Israeli soldiers and one civilian were injured when Hezbollah fired an anti-tank missile at the community of Kfar Yuval. 30 rockets were also launched towards Misgav Am and Matat, but these did not cause any injuries. The IDF has responded with airstrikes on Hezbollah rocket launchers in Ayta ash-Shab and Bint Jbeil, as well as buildings used by the terror group in Beit Lif, Taybeh and Odaisseh.

Context: 101 hostages remain in captivity for 332 days. The fact that these six hostages survived for so long, only to have been killed in recent days has shaken Israeli society.

• Compounding the suffering is the fact that three or four of the dead were due to be released in the first (humanitarian) phase of a hostage-prisoner exchange – Goldberg-Polin due to his amputated arm and the female prisoners Yerushalmi and Gat (Lobanov as a dual Israeli-Russian citizen was also rumoured to be released).
• The deaths come very soon after a reported shouting exchange between PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant in a cabinet meeting late last week, in which Gallant warned that the hostages’ lives were in danger.
• Against the backdrop of failures to secure a ceasefire deal with Hamas, Prime Minister Netanyahu has received significant criticism for failures to compromise on the Philadelphi Corridor’s status, which he is accused of prioritising retaining control over rather than securing the release of hostages.
• Netanyahu has insisted that remaining in the Philadelphi Corridor is essential for Israel to prevent Hamas from resuming weapons smuggling across the border, and gradually rebuilding its strength.
• Netanyahu’s position is reportedly at odds with the security establishment’s leadership from the IDF, Mossad, and Shin Bet who believe that technical solutions and compromises can be implemented leading to a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
• These demonstrations are the largest Israel has experienced since 7^th October.
• While the Israeli government had previously maintained that military pressure was the best means to move towards the release of hostages, the murder of six hostages as a seeming direct result of a rescue operation calls this orthodoxy into question.
• There is speculation as to whether the deaths were a result of a direct order to execute hostages if the IDF were to approach, or whether it was a local decision taken by the guards.
• The general strike is considered a type of ‘economic doomsday weapon’. The last time such a strike was called was in March 2023, after Netanyahu fired Gallant over disagreements over the pace of the government’s electoral reform policy.
• The cost of a general strike on the Israeli economy is estimated to be in excess of £150m a day.

Looking ahead: It is unclear how long the general strike which began today will last. The Histadrut had previously resisted calls to initiate such action, and hostage families hope the strike will help to mobilise mass protests and press Prime Minister Netanyahu to compromise on the Philadelphi Corridor.

• The US is reportedly considering submitting a new proposal to Israel and Hamas. This would likely be a final offer calling for a ceasefire and the hostages’ release. President Biden and Vice President Harris are due to meet today with the National Security Council staff to discuss ways to advance a deal.

What happened: On Tuesday morning IDF troops rescued Farhan al-Qadi alive after more than 10 months in Hamas captivity.

• Al-Qadi, a 52 year old Bedouin and father of 11 children from Rahat, was abducted from Kibbutz Magen where he worked as a guard on October 7^th.
• He was rescued from a tunnel in the southern Gaza strip. The precise details of the rescue have not been revealed due to ongoing operational considerations.
• Qadi is quoted as telling Israeli media, “The soldiers called out to me before entering; that’s when the terrorists fled… I feared the tunnel had been booby-trapped with explosive devices so I walked very slowly.”
• As he exited the tunnel, the first person to speak to him was Col. Ahsan Daksa, a Druze commander who speaks Arabic. Daksa was able to ascertain crucial initial details from inside the tunnel.
• He was then flown to Soroka Hospital in Beer Sheva where he was reunited with his family. Although malnourished, Qadi was in overall stable condition.
• His release was greeted by widespread celebrations. He received phone calls from both President Herzog and the prime minister.
• Farhan told the president, “I am grateful to the State of Israel, to the army, who came. People are suffering there. Do everything you can to bring people home. Work 24 hours, don’t sleep until they return. People are really suffering, you can’t imagine. Suddenly, I heard someone speaking Hebrew outside the door, I couldn’t believe it, I couldn’t believe it. I thank you very much. This is thanks to our army, they are doing a sacred duty, risking their lives. Thank you very much, Mr. President.”

Context: In parallel to military operations, diplomatic efforts continue to reach a hostage deal.

• Although there has been no breakthrough in negotiations, there is continued hope that US, Egyptian and Qatari mediation can produce another deal that will see the release of the remaining hostages in exchange for convicted Palestinian terrorists in Israeli prisons and a ceasefire.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu remains committed to maintaining a presence along the Gaza- Egyptian border to prevent Hamas smuggling and rearming and the Netzarim Corridor that bisects the Strip, preventing Hamas fighters from returning north.
• According to Israeli media reports US mediators are instead switching the focus of negotiations onto other issues that they believe will be easier to reach understandings. These include:
  • The ratio of hostages in return for prisoners.
  • How many vetoes the Israeli side will have over releasing ‘heavyweight’ arch terrorists.
  • Of the Palestinian prisoners to be released, which ones (deemed an ongoing security risk) will be deported.
• This latest release still leaves 108 hostages in Gaza, of whom 104 have been in captivity for 327 days.
• 251 people were kidnapped on October 7th 2023 whilst four other hostages have been held in Gaza for a decade: two Israeli civilians and the bodies of two soldiers, from three separate incidents in 2014. Israel will seek to have the two living civilian hostages, Hisham al-Sayed and Avera Mengistu, included in any deal.
• According to official data, 34 of the hostages are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas. However it is feared this figure could be higher.
• 105 Israelis and foreign nationals were released as part of a deal in November 2023.
• Eight hostages have been rescued alive, whist the bodies of 30 murdered hostages have been located by IDF forces and returned to Israel. Three abductees were mistakenly shot by IDF forces and their bodies were returned to Israel.
• This morning the IDF announced the death of another IDF soldier, Staff Sgt. Amit Friedman, a 19-year-old resident of Or Yehuda, who was killed in action in the southern Gaza Strip yesterday.
• The takes the total IDF fatalities to 703, of whom 351 were killed on October 7^th itself, with 352 having fallen since the start of the ground operation.

The north: Despite the successful IDF operation in Lebanon on Sunday Hezbollah has continued with low level attritional attacks on northern Israel.

• Once more sirens were heard across northern Israel. A drone infiltrated from Lebanon injuring a soldier in the area of Beit Hillel.
• In response, the IDF attacked launch sites in the areas of Cheebaa and Yarine in southern Lebanon.
• The operation on Sunday that targeted Hezbollah rocket launchers prior to an imminent attack is the latest example of the rehabilitation of Israeli military intelligence (that failed so badly on October 7th) to pre-empt Hezbollah plans and locate launchers, many of which were hidden underground.
• It involved complex coordination between intelligence and operations, sharing real time updates with 100 air force jets striking over 40 sites simultaneously.
• As such, it has been viewed as a tactical success, but not significant enough to change the strategic picture.
• There is further mounting pressure and discord from local community leaders towards the government after almost 11 months and over 6,600 rocket attacks.

International support: The operation on Sunday is also thought to be the latest example of US – Israeli intelligence cooperation.

• Another example of US assistance was seen earlier this week when the Israeli Ministry of Defence declared the arrival of the 500th aircraft delivering military aid since the war begun.  According to the announcement, “over 50,000 tonnes of military equipment have been delivered to Israel via 500 flights and 107 sea shipments. The equipment procured and transported includes armoured vehicles, munitions, ammunition, personal protection gear, and medical equipment.”
• In parallel Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Brown visited Israel on Monday. He met Defence Minister Gallant, where they discussed both the northern and southern fronts as well as the Iranian threat.
• Similarly, earlier this week Minister Gallant also spoke on the phone with British Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey.  According to Gallant’s office they discussed, “the important cooperation with Britain in ensuring Israel’s security.” They also discussed “the UK’s important role in maintaining regional stability, and in this regard emphasised the importance of preventing regional escalation.”
• “Minister Gallant expressed his appreciation to Secretary Healey for the excellent defence cooperation between the respective nations, and for his personal leadership and commitment to Israel’s security.”

West Bank: The IDF has launched a significant counterterrorism operation in various locations in the northern West Bank.

• The operation is focused on Jenin and Tulkarm and includes ground troops as well as drones and helicopter gunships.
• Palestinian sources report that 11 Palestinians have been killed, in a combination of airstrikes and in exchanges of fire.
• The IDF announced that it had “eliminated five terrorists operating within an operations room in the area of Nur Shams”. These include: Mohanad Qarawi and Muhammad Yussef; Adnan Jaber, who manufactured explosives; and Jibril Jasan Ismail Jibril, who was involved in terror activity in the Tulkarm and Qalqilya areas and who was released as part of the agreement in November 2023.

Looking ahead: A technical team of Israeli security service professionals is relocating from Egypt to Doha in order to continue to work on the details of a hostage deal before the lead negotiators return.

• There is hope that al-Qadi can provide valuable information that could help rescue other hostages.
• While allied forces remain in the region, Israel remains vigilant over a threatened attack by Iran

What happened? Shortly before 5am this morning, based on intelligence that Hezbollah was about to launch missiles against central Israel, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out strikes against Hezbollah launchers.

• The IDF announced that about 100 fighter jets struck targets in various locations in southern Lebanon. Strikes were reported in the areas of Kunin, Beit Yahoun, Haddatha, Rachaf and A-Tiri among others.
• The IDF Spokesperson’s Office announced that “Since 5:00, we have taken out thousands of launchers that were aimed at the north in a coordinated attack by roughly 100 IAF planes. We were prepared for a large Hezbollah strike on the north, and we also attacked Hezbollah drones accordingly.”
• Quoting Western intelligence, the New York Times reported that Israel’s preemptive strike was aimed at launchers that planned to fire rockets at Tel Aviv at 5 am. Israel believes that the group planned to fire a small number of precision-guided missiles at the area of Glilot, which is where Mossad headquarters and IDF Unit 8200 (Israeli Intelligence Corps unit that focus on Signals Intelligence) are located.
• At approximately 5.30, Hezbollah began an assault on Israel. The group announced that it struck “deep in Zionist territory and towards a specific Israeli military target that will be announced later” detailing that it fired drones at a high-quality military target deep inside Israel amid simultaneous rocket fire on IDF bases and Iron Dome batteries in northern Israel.
• Hezbollah claims to have launched more than 320 rockets including at areas such as Safed and Acre, and at 11 military bases.
• According to the group, it has now “completed the first phase of the response to the [Shukr] assassination”
• The IDF reported most of the rockets Hezbollah launched were intercepted. One person in Acre is currently known to have been wounded by shrapnel and is listed as being in light condition.
• US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Gallant ” to discuss Israel’s defense against Lebanese Hezbollah attacks,” according to the Pentagon, “and reaffirmed the US’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s defense against any attacks by Iran and its regional partners and proxies.”
• After being temporarily closed, Ben Gurion airport reopened at 7am.
• The Home Front Command has imposed restrictions on gatherings stretching from central Israel to the north. Up to 30 people can gather in an open area, and up to 300 in buildings. Beaches will be closed to the public.
• Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz this morning said: “Israel is confronting the axis of evil led by Iran, which has the explicit aim of destroying Israel. We do not seek a full-scale war – but we will do whatever it takes to protect our citizens.”
• Foreign Minister Katz addressed dozens of foreign ministers around the world this morning, “calling on them to support Israel”.

Context: Since Hamas’ assault against Israel on October 7 Hezbollah – an integral part of Iran’s Axis of Resistance against Israel – has fired over 6600 missiles at Israel.

• Over the past week, the group has escalated its strikes towards civilian communities on the Golan Heights, which have not been evacuated.
• On the 20^th August, Hezbollah fired 115 rockets and drones into Israel while a drone attack on the 19^th killed one Israeli soldier.
• Also last week, in the face of troop shortages and in preparation for potential escalation in the North, the IDF has called up approximately 15000 previously exempted and demobilised reservists.
• The current barrage is in response to Israel’s killing of senior Hezbollah operative Fuad Shukr (for more information see BICOM’s recent report here).
• Defence Minister Gallant has been in almost daily contact with his US partner Defence Secretary Austin.  This is part of their close coordination which also includes substantial US troops deployed to the region as part of their force projection.

Looking ahead: It remains to be seen whether a second round of missiles and drones will be launched by Hezbollah, and if so, the extent to which it will succeed in striking central Israel as reportedly planned.

• Such a strike could lead to wider escalation including Israeli strikes at Hezbollah targets in Beirut.
• Hezbollah maintains that Israel failed in its pre-emptive strike, and that it succeeded in hitting a significant Israeli site. Hassan Nasrallah is due to deliver a speech in which he will allegedly ‘refute Israel’s claim’ that it disrupted the group’s attacks.
• US Air Force General Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who began an unannounced visit to the Middle East Saturday is currently in Jordan and will travel to Egypt and Israel in the coming days for military discussions

What’s happened: the IDF has said that it launched “extensive” strikes on over ten sites in southern Lebanon in response to a barrage of over 50 rockets being fired at the Golan Heights town of Katzrin.

• Israeli Air Force jets have targeted Hezbollah weapon depots, buildings, and a rocket launcher, according to an update from the IDF.
• This morning, the IDF confirmed that a drone strike destroyed a cell of Hezbollah operatives planning to launch rockets at Israel in the southern Lebanon’s Tayr Harfa.
• Several projectiles were also fired at Israel from Lebanon, most likely targeting Mount Meron where a sensitive Israeli military air traffic control centre is located. At least one projectile was intercepted while two others landed on the mountain. No injuries were reported.
• The IDF has announced that it conducted over 30 airstrikes on targets in the Gaza Strip killing dozens of gunmen. These targets included Hamas compounds, weapon depots, and rocket launching positions. Ground operations continue in Khan Yunis, Deir al-Balah, Rafah, and central Gaza’s Netzarim Corridor. An Israeli soldier, Sergeant Ori Ashkenazi Nehemya was also killed in Rafah by anti-tank missile.
• The IDF has killed two Palestinians in a drone strike on the West Bank city of Tulkarem. The strike was carried out against a cell of gunmen during a joint raid being conducted by the IDF, Shin Bet, and Border Police. No Israeli casualties were reported.
• Despite the near breakdown of ceasefire and hostage release talks and dwindling expectations of an imminent breakthrough, Israeli negotiators have returned to Cairo.
• According to Channel 12, Netanyahu sent Israel’s negotiators to Cairo with updated maps showing a reduced IDF deployment along the Philadelphi Corridor, indicating some willingness to compromise on this matter.

Context: Israeli strikes in Lebanon follow statements by PM Netanyahu hinting at Israel’s offensive capabilities and intent to use them at a visit to the Ramat David IAF base near Haifa.

• Netanyahu said that Israel is “ready for any scenario, both on the defensive and on the attack” and referred to the air force as “our iron fist that can strike the soft underbelly of our enemies”.
• During her speech at the Democratic National Convention where she accepted the party’s presidential nomination, Vice President Harris reaffirmed her support for Israel and her commitment to supporting its right to self-defence, while also acknowledging the humanitarian toll of the war in Gaza and calling for an immediate hostage-ceasefire deal to end the fighting and return those held captive by Hamas.
• These comments come as the US continues to press for a ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas.
• An unnamed Egyptian official criticised part of the American approach. “The Americans are offering promises, not guarantees…Hamas won’t accept this, because it virtually means Hamas will release the civilian hostages in return for a six-week pause of fighting with no guarantees for a negotiated permanent ceasefire.”
• The US has now deployed a second aircraft carrier to the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln and its accompanying strike group arrived in the Middle East on Wednesday, and will join the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

Looking ahead: negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage deal continue in Cairo.

• The status of the Philadelphi Corridor which runs along the Egyptian-Israeli border in Gaza, is understood to be a central sticking point. Netanyahu believes that an Israeli presence remains vital to preventing Hamas from re-arming, while Hamas says Israeli forces must withdraw entirely.
• Hamas is also reportedly concerned by Israel’s insistence on keeping troops deployed in the Netzarim Corridor, an east-west strip Israel cleared during the current war that prevents Palestinians’ (including Hamas operatives) free movement between north and south Gaza.
• Egypt has reportedly rejected the presence of Israeli troops on the Philadelphi Corridor, but is willing to take more security measures to secure the border. Egyptian sources reportedly believe that Hamas is prepared to consider an arrangement whereby international forces are deployed both at the Philadelphi Corridor and at the Netzarim Corridor separating the south of the strip from the north.
• Hamas meanwhile continue to reject various proposals put to them by Egyptian and Qatari mediators and failed to attend the most recent round of talks held in Doha.
• An Israeli official has told the Times of Israel that while a normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia was not possible before November’s US presidential elections, it could still be inked during the “lame duck period” between November and January. The official suggested that it will be too difficult for Congress to authorise a bilateral US-Saudi security pact Riyadh is seeking as part of any normalisation deal pre-election, and it would become significantly easier for all parties after November, whatever the election’s outcome

What’s happened: Hezbollah launched a salvo of over 50 rockets at the Golan Heights this morning as ceasefire talks falter with little sign of a hoped for breakthrough. Shortly after, Hezbollah launched several drones in the same direction.

• While most were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence system, some hit the town of Katzrin causing significant damage to a number of homes and injuring one Israeli citizen.
• Hezbollah has taken responsibility for these attacks, saying that they were targeting an IDF base and responding to overnight Israeli airstrikes in eastern Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley. The IDF says that this airstrike was targeting a Hezbollah arms depot.
• Yesterday, Hezbollah fired 115 rockets and drones into Israel while a drone attack on Monday killed one Israeli soldier. While yesterday’s larger barrage did not cause any deaths or injuries, rocket impacts did spark fires in open areas causing significant damage.
• For the first time since October 7th, an Israeli strike in Lebanon killed a Fatah official, the Palestinian group claimed, informing AFP that the strike hit the car of official Khalil Makdah in the southern city of Sidon.
• These attacks come as US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, leaves the Middle East after his ninth visit since 7^th October without making significant progress towards a much hoped for ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Although Israel has accepted the US bridging proposal, Hamas has rejected it claiming that it is an American attempt to buy time “for Israel to continue its genocide”, and urged a return to the previous proposal.
• Secretary of State Blinken has urged both sides to show “maximum flexibility” while an unnamed US official criticised Prime Minister Netanyahu for “maximalist” remarks about maintaining control of the Gaza-Egypt border. The Prime Minister has insisted that Israeli troops remain in the strategic Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors in the southern and central Gaza Strip.
• An unnamed source in the Israeli negotiating team has also accused Netanyahu of sabotaging the talks with his Tuesday remarks saying “the Prime Minister knows that we are in a critical period during which we’re working on solutions for the Philadelphi Corridor and Netzarim ahead of the next summit…he knows there is progress — and then he puts out statements that are the opposite of what was agreed upon with the mediators”.

Context: The heightened push for a ceasefire deal comes amid the returning of six hostages’ bodies to Israel yesterday. Five of the returned hostages were previously known to have died.

• The Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has said that Israel’s “centre of gravity” is gradually transitioning from the Gaza Strip to the northern front amid preparations for a major escalation with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• In a visit to the 36^th Division in northern Israel, Gallant said: “Our centre of gravity is moving from south to north, we are in a gradual change, we have more tasks in the south, we have hostages, we need to bring them, we are negotiating on this and I believe we will succeed in reaching results, this is a very important thing…We want to return the [displaced] residents to the north, we want to return them safely. If it is possible to do this in an agreement, we will do it in an agreement”.
• The Israeli Police and Shin Bet are said to be investigating the possibility that Iran and Hezbollah were responsible for Sunday night’s attempted suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. While Hamas and PIJ claimed responsibility, the attacker is not known to have been affiliated with either group and used a relatively sophisticated device potentially indicating Iranian or Hezbollah direction.
• Combat operations continue in the Gaza Strip, with the IDF confirming that it conducted airstrikes on 30 targets in the past day. These included buildings used by terror groups, armed terror operatives, rocket launching sites, tunnel shafts, and observation posts with fighting taking place in Rafah, Khan Yunis, and the Netzarim Corridor.

Looking ahead: In the face of troop shortages, and in preparation for potential escalation in the North, the IDF has called up approximately 15000 previously exempted and demobilised reservists.

• The reservists set to be recalled to duty are those who were released from service due to the army closing units or reducing manpower in certain units, and who are younger than the exemption age, which is 40 for most soldiers, 45 for officers, and 49 for specialists. According to Channel 12, around 170,000 such exemptions have been granted over the past 10 years resulting in significant manpower shortages.
• An IRGC spokesman has said that the wait for Iran’s retaliation against Israel for Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination “could be long”. Speaking in Tehran yesterday, Alimohammad Naini said that “time is in our favour and the waiting period for this response could be long”, and that “the enemy” should wait for a calculated and accurate response.
• Two of the border towns most impacted by Hamas’s attacks on 7^th October – Beeri and Kfar Aza – have announced that they will not participate in a centralised government organised memorial ceremony, and instead hold their own. Officials at Beeri have said “this isn’t an alternative ceremony, this is the ceremony of the community”, while representatives of Kfar Aza are reported to be “disappointed” by the government’s commemoration plans

What’s happened: Israel is anticipating potential significant attacks by Iran and Hezbollah and preparing for hostage release and ceasefire negotiations later this week. This past weekend also saw rocket fire from Lebanon targeting northern Israeli communities and a shooting attack in the Jordan Valley.

• On Sunday afternoon, a 23 year old Israeli civilian Yonatan Deutsch from Beit Shean was killed in a terror attack. Terrorists opened fire in the area of the Mehola Junction, in Jordan Valley while he was driving to visit his fiancé.
• In a second car, Anas Jaramana, 32, from the northern Arab town of Muqeible, was injured in moderate condition and taken to a hospital. Whist the terrorists escaped, Hamas took responsibly for the attack.
• The IDF Chief of Staff Halevi, visited the scene of the attack on Sunday evening ,and said, “Our mission is to catch these terrorists and reach them before attacks occur; here, we did not succeed. The clock counting down to catch the terrorist cell that carried out this attack is ticking backwards. We will reach them; we will continue to fight terrorism, accompanied with the deep sorrow for every victim of this terrorist attack, we will only strengthen our operations against terrorism.”
• Hezbollah fired a barrage of approximately 30 rockets toward northern Israel on Sunday night. Most fell in open areas and no injuries were reported.
• In Gaza the IDF launched a new operation in Khan Yunis following “intelligence indicating the presence of terrorists and terror infrastructure there”. The IDF also struck a terror cell in the Rafah area after its members were identified emerging from a tunnel shaft.
• On Saturday the IDF struck a Hamas command and control centre, which was embedded inside a mosque in the Al-Taba’een school compound. The IDF initially thought at least 19 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists were eliminated, yesterday they expanded that assessment to 38.  Whist Palestinian sources claimed around 100 people were killed.
• According to the IDF, “The strike was carried out using three precise munitions, which, according to professional analysis, cannot cause the amount of damage that is being reported by the Hamas-run Government Information Office in Gaza…..Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of a small warhead, aerial surveillance, and intelligence information.”
• In a separate incident an IDF soldier, Omer Ginzburg was killed by a sniper in the southern Gaza Strip. 690 Israeli soldier have been killed since October 7, including 330 since the IDF began its ground operation in Gaza on October 27^th. 

Context: Israel remains on alert for retaliations by both Iran and Hezbollah following Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh’s assassinations in Beirut and Tehran.

• The latest assessment suggests that an attack might be carried out either simultaneously or in succession, sometime this week.
• Defence Minister Gallant commented on these threats yesterday, saying, “Our enemies threaten to harm us in ways they have not done before. We hear these messages coming from the direction of Iran and Hezbollah…. Whoever harms us in a way that has not been done in the past, is likely to be hit in a way that hasn’t been done in the past. The IDF has significant capabilities.”
• The UK, France, and Germany have reiterated their support for a hostage deal and cease fire in a joint statement released earlier today. It calls on”Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks that would further escalate regional tensions and jeopardise the opportunity to agree a ceasefire and the release of hostages. They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardise this opportunity for peace and stability.”
• US Defence Secretary Austin has continued his close coordination with Israeli Defence Minister Gallant. In this latest call, according to the Israeli MOD they, “discussed interoperability with the wide range of US military capabilities deployed to the region.”
• In its latest demonstration of support and deterrence, the US ordered the deployment of a guided missile submarine to the region and to expedite the arrival of the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.
• There is still hope that a wider confrontation can be avoided and instead progress can be made on the hostage negotiations.
• Among the outstanding issues of contention:
  • Israel is insisting on keeping a presence along Philadelphi Corridor and Rafah crossing on the Egyptian border to prevent further Hamas smuggling and rearmament.
  • Similarly Israel is insisting on a mechanism to prevent the return of armed gunmen to northern Gaza.
  • Israel has also requested the names of the hostages to be freed in the first stage of the deal.
  • The sides also need to agree the identity of the Palestinian security prisoners, and whether Israel will veto some of the most dangerous terrorists. They also need to agree who will be allowed to return to Gaza or the West Bank or elsewhere.
• The are indications that Israel is willing to show increased flexibility on some of these issue, for example reaching understandings with Egypt and the US over preventing smuggling in the south.
• American, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators could present their bridging proposals when they meet on Thursday, despite the latest comments from Hamas saying they will not send representatives to the talks.

Looking ahead: Senior US officials including CIA Director William Burns and National Security Council Coordinator Brett McGurk are scheduled to arrive in the region. They are expected to visit Israel before going to the summit on Thursday, either in Qatar or Egypt.

• The IDF remains braced for attack, particularly tonight and tomorrow which coincides with the 9^th of Av fast, the traditional day of Jewish national mourning. Throughout the ages, the day is synonymous with Jewish tragedy.
• One possible scenario is an infiltration attack by Hezbollah’s Radwan force attacking an Israeli civilian community or military outpost on the border.
• The manhunt continues for the perpetrators of the shooting attack in the Jordan Valley.

What’s happened: On Thursday night the leaders of the US, Qatar and Egypt issued a joint statement imploring the sides to finalise a deal.

• According to their statement, “There is no more time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay. It is time to release the hostages, begin the ceasefire, and implement this agreement.”
• “As mediators, if necessary, we are prepared to present a final bridging proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties.”
• Following the announcement Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement that Israel would send the negotiating team on August 15^th to finalise the details.
• The Hostages and Missing Families Forum issued a statement thanking the leaders for their commitment to free the hostages.
• Despite the cautious optimism, fighting has continued in the south and north.
• Sirens were heard early this morning, in Ashkelon and Zikim, one rocket from Gaza was successfully intercepted.
• Inside Gaza, the IDF continues to operate in the south and centre of the Strip. As part of their efforts to prevent Hamas from rebuilding its fighting capacity the IDF launched a new incursion into Khan Younis after calling Palestinian civilians to evacuate.
• According to the IDF over the past day, the Israeli Air Force (IAF), “struck approximately 60 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military structures in which terrorists were operating, weaponry, and additional terrorist infrastructure.”
• In Rafah, “troops located rocket launch pits along the Philadelphi Corridor that were situated a few dozen meters away from the Gaza Strip’s largest fuel storage facility for civilian use. Any damage to the facility – including rocket fire from these nearby launch pits – could endanger the lives of tens of thousands of Gazan citizens in the surrounding areas. The IDF did not damage the fuel storage facility while dismantling the launch pits.”
• The IDF statement added this is, ”a further example of the systematic abuse of civilian and humanitarian infrastructure by the terror organisations in Gaza.”
• In the north Hezbollah continues launching rockets, missiles, and attack drones into northern Israel. Over 50 rockets were fired yesterday towards Nahariya and Shlomi, some were intercepted while others landed in open areas.
• This morning, more rockets were fired at Kiryat Shmona and Manara.
• The IDF continues to target Hezbollah assets in response. Last night, “the IAF struck a Hezbollah command centre in the area of Hanaouay and terrorist infrastructure in the area of Ayta ash Shab in southern Lebanon. Additionally, the IAF struck a Hezbollah launcher in the area of Ayta ash Shab from which rockets were fired yesterday.”

Context: Israel remains on high alert for the anticipated revenge attack for the dual assassinations of Ismail Haniya in Tehran and Fuad Shukr in Lebanon a week ago.

• According to Hezbollah leader Nasrallah the delay in the attack is part of a psychological strategy designed to keep the Israeli population under constant fear.
• The IDF Chief of Staff Halevi described his forces being on “peak readiness, both in offense and in defence.” Adding, “We will know how to carry out a very rapid offensive anywhere in Lebanon, anywhere in Gaza, anywhere in the Middle East, above ground and below ground. We will send a very clear message to our enemies, those who attack us, those who in every speech talk about how they will destroy the state of Israel, we will harm them, and we will continue to grow stronger.”
• Israel continues to receive the support and backing from key allies. Defence Minister Gallant has kept daily contact with senior US defence officials. Whilst the US has now deployed F-22 fighter jets to the region as part of their force projection.
• The cautious optimism around the hostage talks is at least partly based on the latest assessment that Hamas leader Sinwar is now keen to reach a ceasefire as soon as possible and does want not to wait for the possibility of a clash between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran.
• Sinwar is thought to be under renewed pressure from the remaining commanders of the military wing who have seen the devastation wrought upon them in 10 months of fighting.
• It is thought up to 75 per cent of Hamas forces have now been destroyed. Sinwar is one of the only senior leaders that remains alive.
• The Israeli assessment is that around 90 per cent of their rocket capacity has either been fired or destroyed. Yet as is evident from yesterday, they maintain a limited ability to still fire rockets into Israel.
• The view remains that Hamas have held back some of the long-range rockets for symbolic use on special occasions, such as to respond to the assassination of senior Hamas officials.
• Today marks the 308^th day of the war, 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity.
• The parameters of the agreement are based on the principles as outlined by President Biden at the end of May, and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2735.
• Earlier in the week  the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) held an emergency meeting in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah at the request of Iran and the Palestinians.
• Acting Iranian Foreign Minister, Baqeri Ali Bagheri Kani told members, “it is expected that they support Iran’s response to the killing. Iran’s action is not only a defence of its own sovereignty and national security but also a defence of the stability and security of the entire region.”
• It remains unclear whether Iran intends to execute its ‘revenge operation’ exclusively on its own, or whether it will also enlist its proxies. Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have all declared their desire to join an attack.

Looking ahead: Whist Israel remains on high alert for a potential multi front attack, there is hope that the prospect of reaching a hostage deal will avert an escalation.

• Media reports have suggested that President Macron relayed messages to Lebanese officials asking Hezbollah to hold off any attack, so as not to detract attention from the Olympics
• Others have suggested that they will attack on the symbolic date of Monday night / Tuesday which coincides with the Jewish fast day of national mourning – the 9^th of Av.
• Renewed hostage talks have been scheduled to be resumed next Thursday August 15^th in either Doha or Cairo.