Iran and their Proxies

Updated May 12, 2025

Dual Israeli – US soldier due to be released today

What’s happened: Hamas announced that it will release Edan Alexander, a kidnapped IDF soldier who is also an American citizen.

His release is being seen as a goodwill gesture towards US President Trump before his trip to the Gulf, and appears to be the result of direct talks between the US and Hamas.
The Alexander family issued a statement noting, “the continuous contact with the American administration regarding the possibility of Edan’s anticipated release in the coming days.”
Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office also issued a statement that the expected release, “without anything in return will be possible due to the vigorous policy that we have led with the backing of President Trump, and thanks to the military pressure of IDF soldiers in the Gaza Strip.” It added that “Israel has not committed to a ceasefire of any kind or the release of terrorists but only to a safe corridor that will allow for the release of Edan.”
Leader of the Opposition Lapid said, “Edan Alexander’s release is welcome and moving, but we must not stop there. This has to lead to a broad hostage deal that will return all the hostages home. They don’t have time. The reports about direct talks between Hamas and the United States are a disgraceful political failure of the Israeli government and the prime minister. The hostages are ours, and the responsibility for getting them back resides with the government. Our hearts are with the families.”
Adding to the criticism of the Israeli government, US envoy Witkoff told hostage families that the US “wants to return the hostages, but Israel is not ready to end the war…. Israel is prolonging the war, even though we do not see where further progress can be made.”
Witkoff also related to negotiations with Iran following the fourth round of negotiations over the weekend. Witkoff denied the US was on its way to signing a deal similar to the 2015 agreement under the Obama administration. “We’re never doing a JCPOA deal where sanctions come off and there’s no sunsetting of their obligations … They cannot have enrichment, they cannot have centrifuges, they cannot have anything that allows them to build a weapon.”
Also over the weekend, Hamas released their latest propaganda video, this one featuring Elkana Bohbot and Yosef-Haim Ohana. It served as another reminder of the awful condition the hostages are in.

Context: Ahead of President Trump’s visit to the region, there are several issues on his agenda that will have a significant impact on Israel.

Foremost are the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Despite Witkoff’s denials, Israel is concerned that the inchoate deal will allow Iran to retain some level of enrichment and will resemble the deal signed by President Obama a decade ago. There is also a fear that it will not relate to Iran’s regional role or their development of advanced missiles.
There is added concern the new agreement will not only allow Iran to retain the knowhow and means to acquire nuclear capabilities in the future, but sanctions relief will free up funds that will allow it to repair its economy and to provide meaningful support to its proxies in the region.
The second issue is the anticipated defence deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, which could challenge the longstanding US – Israel principle of Israel maintaining a qualitative military edge in the region.
As part of such a deal, there are also suggestions that the US could acquiesce to a Saudi nuclear programme. These were supposed to be components of an Israeli – Saudi normalisation agreement, but that now appears to be off the agenda.
The third major issue relates to Gaza, both in terms of securing another hostage deal and how long the US will support an intensification of the fighting.
The US’s unilateral deal over Edan Alexander could relegate the fate of the remaining hostages. It also brings into greater focus the notion that traditionally Israel would do all it could to return Israeli captives. Now the impression is that a dual passport is worth more.
Connected to this is the expected huge financial deal between US and Qatar, that brings the Qataris even closer into Trump’s orbit at Israel’s expense.
The fourth issue is the Houthis. Israel was surprised last week by the US announcement to end their strikes in Yemen, at the same time as attacks on Israel persist. Yesterday the IDF released a warning in Arabic to evacuate three sea ports in Yemen in preparation for an Israeli attack. So far, the IDF has not acted on the threat, allowing for speculation as to whether this was part of physiological warfare or if an attack remains imminent.
In a potential attempt to emphasise the government’s commitment to returning hostages and captured soldiers, the Israeli government announced that, in a special operation by the Mossad and the IDF, it had recovered the body of Sgt. First Class Tzvi Feldman, who fell in the Battle of Sultan Yacob in June 1982 during the First Lebanon War.

Looking ahead: Edan Alexander is now expected to be released this afternoon.

President Trump is due to depart this evening. His first stop will be Saudi Arabia, followed by UAE and Qatar.
There are news reports that Trump’s meeting with Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Tuesday is also set to include PA Chairman Abbas, Lebanese President Aoun and Syria‘s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Julani).
There are suggestions in the Israeli media that if he is physically well enough, Edan Alexander will fly with his family and Witkoff to meet Trump in Qatar.
The IDF has completed its preparations for a military operation in Gaza, which is anticipated to begin immediately after Trump leaves the region.

May 7, 2025

Israel strikes Yemen again, as Trump announces end of US offensive

What’s happened: For a second time within 24 hours the Israeli Air Force (IAF) jets struck strategic targets in Houthi-controlled Yemen.

Among the targets struck were runways, aircraft, and infrastructure at Sanaa International Airport which put it out of commission and disrupted three scheduled flights.
The IDF said that the airport was used “for transferring weapons and operatives, and is regularly operated by the Houthi regime for terror purposes.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu commented that Israeli planes “attacked the airport in Sanaa, an airport that enables the terrorist army and allows for the entry by air to the terrorist state, which enables the firing of missiles at us.”
Prior to the strike, the IDF issued an “urgent” warning to civilians to evacuate the airport area immediately.
IAF jets also hit several power stations near Sanaa and a cement factory north of the city, which the IDF said, “constitutes a blow to the regime’s economy and its military buildup.”
The strikes came in response to repeated Houthis missiles targeting Israel, one of which landed inside the perimeter of Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday.
Dozens of IAF aircraft once again took part in the operation, including fighter jets, refuelers and intelligence gathering planes. The IDF said the fighter jets dropped 50 munitions on the targets.
This morning the IDF said they shot down a UAV launched from Yemen, before it entered Israeli airspace. As such no sirens were sounded.

Trump announcement: In a move that surprised Israel officials, President Trump declared that the US is ending its (almost) two month bombing campaign targeting the Houthis.

Trump said the Houthis approached the administration on Monday night indicating “they want to stop the fighting.”
Trump added, “It’s not a deal….They said, ‘Please don’t bomb us anymore and we’re not going to attack your ships.’”
The Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi confirmed on X that his country mediated talks between the Houthis and the US, adding “in the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping.”

For context on the strikes on Yemen – see yesterday’s briefing

Context: Trump’s announcement was the second time in recent weeks that he surprised Israel officials, after he announced that the US would hold talks with Iran while Prime Minister Netanyahu was sat next to him in the White House.

Israeli officials were initially disappointed by the announcement. Despite the US attacks, the Houthis still maintain capacity to launch missiles and drones.
However the initial assessment in Jerusalem is that Trump’s announcement would not affect Israel nor restrict its freedom of action against the Houthis.
Earlier this week, the Israeli security cabinet approved Operation Gideon’s Chariots, which involves intensifying the military activity in Gaza. It is only expected to begin after Trump’s visit, and only if no hostage deal can be reached.
President Trump said last night that only 21 hostages in Gaza are still alive. The Hostage and Missing Families Forum issued a statement this morning saying that the number of living hostages, as they had been officially informed, was 24. The forum added that if there was any new information that they have not been given, they wanted to receive it immediately. It echoed a comment made last week by the Prime Minister’s wife Sara that there were fewer than 24 hostages still alive.
Ahead of Trump’s arrival, mediators have reportedly increased the pressure on Hamas in an effort to reach a new hostage deal.
The US are apparently encouraging Hamas’s two biggest supporters – Turkey and Qatar to reduce their support for Hamas, and to induce them to compromise.
In addition, Hamas claims that Egypt has begun to pressure it to agree to dismantle its military wing.

Looking ahead: It is anticipated that the Houthis will continue to try and attack Israel. President of the Houthis Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, warned in response, “To all Zionists, from now on, stay in shelters or leave to your homelands immediately, for your failed government will no longer be able to protect you.”

Relating to the strikes in Yemen, Defence Minister Katz said that this also constituted a “warning to the head of the Iranian octopus: You bear direct responsibility for the attack by the Houthi tentacle against the State of Israel, and you will also be held accountable for the results.”
Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is in Washington and is expected to meet US officials in the White House today and coordinate positions ahead of Trump’s visit to the region next week.
At present Trump is not scheduled to stop in Israel during his visit, but there are several weighty issues that do affect Israel, including the talks with Iran, hopes for another hostage deal and a potential defence agreement between US and Saudi Arabia.

May 6, 2025

Israel attack Yemen, following missile on airport

What’s happened: The Israeli Air Force launched a series of strikes against Houthi targets in the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.

Approximately twenty jets participated in the strikes which the IDF says targeted “terrorist infrastructure sites” used as a central supply source for the Houthis, as well as where Iranian weapons and military equipment were transferred to them.
A concrete plant east of the city was also struck, with the IDF describing it as a “significant economic resource” for the group.
Israeli officials have confirmed that although the strikes were closely coordinated with the US, they were not a joint operation.
In response, the Houthis said they remain “undeterred,” and indicated their intent to escalate attacks on both Israel and international shipping operating in and around the Red Sea.
The attack follows weeks of escalating missile and drone campaign against Israel since the breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire in March, and a missile striking the Ben Gurion Airport compound this Sunday.
Following a technical failure and unsuccessful interception, the missile landed in an open area, causing no direct damage to the airport, though eight people were injured by shrapnel and shockwaves caused by the blast.
Ben Gurion Airport was briefly closed, but operations resumed within approximately an hour.
The majority of foreign airliners have suspended their flights to and from Israel, but Israeli carriers’ operations remain largely unaffected.
The Houthis claimed the Ben Gurion strike as a victory, stating that air travel to and from Israel was no longer safe and they were imposing a comprehensive air blockade.
Israel reacted angrily, with Prime Minister Netanyahu threatening both the Houthis and “their patron” Iran in the hours after the missile strike.
Iran has denied ordering the attack, with its foreign ministry saying that “The actions of the Yemenis in support of the Palestinian people was an independent decision stemming from their feeling of solidarity.”
President Trump responded by saying that “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!”

Context: Despite the Houthis escalating attacks since March – having launched around 26 ballistic missiles attacks as well as UAV’s – these are the first air strikes Israel has carried out in Yemen since December 2024.

Since November 2023 the Houthis have launched around 370 missiles and drones towards Israel. Israel’s anti-missile defence system has around a 95 per cent successful interception rate. Israel says that most were intercepted outside of Israel’s airspace.
Due to the attacks on international shipping lanes, the Trump administration has taken the lead in responding to the Houthi threat, and has launched approximately a thousand retaliatory air strikes up, with some assistance from the RAF.
Despite President Trump’s consistent threats to significantly degrade the group’s capabilities, American and British actions seems to have had limited to no deterring effect on the Houthis, with missile and drone attacks continuing and showing no sign of abatement.
However, the significance of a direct hit in the Ben Gurion area causing Israel’s national airport to close (albeit briefly) could not be ignored, and Israeli officials felt it demanded a direct Israeli military response.
The IDF’s choice of targeting the port of Hodeidah is viewed as symbolic, targeting a port for a port.
It is probable that the US and UK will continue conducting the majority of air strikes against the Houthis, and Israel will only intervene again in the event of another major successful missile or drone attack, especially if it causes loss of life.

April 24, 2025

US Secretary of State Rubio reiterates Iran cannot enrich uranium

What’s happened: US Secretary of State Rubio said yesterday that Iran could be allowed a civil nuclear programme but emphasised that it must refrain from enriching uranium.

In an interview on Bari Weiss’s podcast Rubio said, “If Iran wants a civil nuclear programme, they can have one just like many other countries in the world have one. That is, they import enriched material.”
Rubio also reiterated President Trump’s longstanding position that diplomacy was preferable to military action, while praising Special Envoy Witkoff’s efforts in negotiating with Iran.
With US-Iranian talks ongoing, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke by phone on Tuesday, with Trump later saying that they were “on the same side of every issue.”
The call follows a second round of talks between the US and Iran hosted at the Omani Embassy in Rome where the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that he and Witkoff had “managed to reach a better understanding on a series of principles and goals.”
Witkoff had previously stated that the US would accept a cap on Iranian nuclear enrichment. However, a day later, he U-turned and asserted that all enrichment would have to end.
In parallel, Mohammed Eslami, the Head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation, has confirmed that Iran has begun fortifying tunnel systems linked to its nuclear project, explaining that “efforts are ongoing…[to] expand protective facilities.”

Context: While the US seemingly open to Iran developing and maintaining a civil nuclear energy programme if it refrains from enriching its own uranium, Israel is taking a less compromising position.

In parallel to the negotiations Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei laid out his country’s red lines for negotiations that include:
- Not dismantling any of their centrifuges.
- Not lowering uranium enrichment below 3.67% (the level agreed in the JCPOA 2015 nuclear agreement).
- Not ceasing missile programmes (that currently remain outside the scope of the JCPOA).
- Guarantees that the US will not withdraw from a future deal (as President Trump did in 2018).
Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that the only diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis with Iran is the ‘Libya option’ in which all existing infrastructure in Iran will be dismantled or is shipped out of the country.
A recent New York Times article claimed Trump had blocked an Israeli military attack on nuclear facilities, with the administration wanting to give more time for diplomacy.
In the context of these military threats, evidence that Tehran has begun fortifying tunnel systems linked to its main nuclear facility – that could potentially store highly enriched uranium, and other undeclared nuclear materials, or advanced centrifuges – is pertinent.
The evidence was taken from commercial satellite imagery taken over Iran at the end of March 2025, and published in a report by the Institute for Science and International Security. The Institute’s President, David Albright, has suggested that the new tunnels could become operational relatively soon, and that it was highly unlikely that UN nuclear inspectors would be granted access to them.
Israel has long attempted to undermine and weaken Iran’s nuclear programme, primarily through covert and deniable means including cyber-attacks, sabotaging facilities, and targeted assassinations of nuclear scientists and officials.
All these efforts are assumed to be paused while Israel closely follows US efforts to reach a diplomatic solution.
Although not party to the talks, Israel will be hoping that Netanyahu’s personal ties – along with those of Minister Dermer – will be able to influence the US position.

Looking ahead: A third round of US-Iran nuclear talks will take place on Saturday, this time returning to Muscat in Oman.

This upcoming round has been described as both “technical” and “high-level”, and is understood to focus on agreeing a framework for a potential nuclear deal which would not be dissimilar to the JCPOA.

April 17, 2025

Trump and the Iranian nuclear project

New BICOM research: Ahead of the highly anticipated second round of US–Iran talks in Rome this Saturday (October 19), BICOM’s latest paper examines the US position and the strategic implications of a potential deal for Israel and the wider Middle East.

Key points:

For the first time in a decade, the US has opened direct talks with Iran over its nuclear programme, while simultaneously threatening military action if an agreement acceptable to the Trump administration is not reached within sixty days.
In parallel, American military action in Yemen – together with the ostentatious forward deployment of naval assets in striking distance of Iran – is intended to signal that the US will not hesitate to use force if negotiations over a nuclear deal with Iran fail to achieve an agreement.
The US is demanding improvements over the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) on four major issues of contention:
- time limits on nuclear activities,
- weaponisation capabilities,
- international inspections,
- ballistic missile programme.
While the basic points of contention between the sides remain unchanged from a decade ago, the larger geostrategic environment is dramatically different. So too is Iran’s bargaining position. On the one hand, it is at a far more advanced stage in its nuclear development. At the same time, it has seen its proxy forces in the region degraded and under pressure in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and Yemen. And it has seen its own air defences largely rendered useless by Israeli strikes.
President Trump seems determined to reach a deal, one that he can convince himself and his constituents is better than the one achieved by President Obama signed in 2015. His choice of real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, a trusted non-ideological dealmaker that he has relied on in other foreign policy crises, as his envoy is further evidence that Trump is keen to make a deal, even – as seen in discussions over the future of Ukraine – at the cost of alienating allies or sacrificing long-held principles.
Israel is most directly affected by the outcome of these negotiations, but not a part of them. While Israeli action against Iranian capabilities and proxies has been leveraged to bolster the American negotiating position, it will ultimately be American, not Israeli, interests that determine the talks’ outcome.

Read the FULL analysis

April 10, 2025

Oman to host US-Iran nuclear negotiations this weekend

What’s happened: Negotiations are due to take place between the US and Iran in Oman over the weekend. “We have a very big meeting on Saturday, and we’re dealing with them directly,” Trump told reporters on Monday after his meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The Iranian delegation will be led by its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, and the US delegation by Steven Witkoff.
Yesterday, President Trump told reporters that he had a deadline in mind for when the talks must culminate in an agreed-upon solution, but did not go into details about the nature of the timeline. Trump also threatened “great danger” if the two sides fail to come to an agreement.
“We have a little time, but we don’t have much time, because we’re not going to let them have a nuclear weapon. We can’t let them have a nuclear weapon.” Trump said.
Trump added that the military option was very much on the table, suggesting that Israel might take the lead on any attack. “If it requires military, we’re going to have military,” Trump told reporters. “Israel will obviously be very much involved in that. They’ll be the leader of that. But nobody leads us. We do what we want to do.”
The U.S. Treasury Department yesterday said it had imposed sanctions on five Iran-based entities and one person based in Iran for their support of Iran’s nuclear programme with the aim of denying Tehran a nuclear weapon. “The Iranian regime’s reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons remains a grave threat to the United States and a menace to regional stability and global security,” Treasury Secretary Bessent said. “Treasury will continue to leverage our tools and authorities to disrupt any attempt by Iran to advance its nuclear programme and its broader destabilising agenda.”
CIA Director Ratcliffe arrived in Israel last night and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu and his counterpart, Mossad Director Barnea.
Israeli officials have confirmed that they intend to monitor their progress for any perceived “erosion” of Washington’s position on nuclear development, missiles, and its use of proxies across the region.
Iranian officials have said the Islamic Republic is approaching the weekend talks ‘warily’ with little confidence in progress and suspicions over US intentions.
The talks come as The Times reports that Iran is transferring long-range cruise and ballistic missiles to its proxy militias in Iraq for the first time. These missiles can reportedly reach targets as far away as Europe.

Context:

Several major gaps exist between the US and Iran:
- The nature of the talks: While the US has stated that negotiations will be direct, Iran maintains that they will be indirect and moderated by Omani mediators.
- Sanctions on the Islamic Republic: Iran has previously indicated that it would only engage in negotiations if sanctions were gradually lifted, not merely at their conclusion once an agreement had been reached. While it had previously indicated that sanction relief was a precondition for participation, it has since dropped this demand.
- Iran’s nuclear programme: America demands a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile programmes. Tehran insists that despite uranium enrichment reaching military levels, its nuclear purposes is only for peaceful civilian purposes, repeatedly denying that it intends to develop nuclear weapons citing a fatwa by Ayatollah Khamenei which bans them.
- Iran’s missile programme: Iran has reportedly refused to negotiate on the status of its missile programme following reports that Israel had requested the US directly address this particular issue.
- Regional proxies: The US is also expected to seek to push Iran to address its network of terrorist proxy groups which act on its behalf across the region. The Houthis and Iraq’s Shia militias continue to represent a particular security threat to Israel and the US which is unlikely to abate given Tehran’s insistence that they act as independent agents rather than proxies or clients. The Houthis have continued to launch missiles at Israel since military operations in the Gaza Strip resumed, with the US conducting a large number of air strikes against the group in an attempt to deter their ongoing aggression.
While Iran’s proxy militias in Iraq have refrained from attacking Israel since December 2024, they have previously targeted and killed both American and Israeli troops since escalating their activities in the aftermath of 7th October 2023, which has included jointly claimed missile and drone attacks with the Houthis.
An article in Israel Hayom suggests that the US and Israel are aligned and that Trump and Netanyahu “had reached clear agreements on the issue”. It also details that negotiations would be time-limited, only giving Iran two months “to exhaust the option of negotiations”. The article adds that Israeli officials were grateful to have been notified of these developments ahead of time, and that the US had learned lessons from Adam Boehler’s unilateral attempts to engage with Hamas earlier in the year. In that case, Israel had not been advised that they would be taking place.
Netanyahu has described two options to prevent Iran going nuclear. This week he said that a deal would only be acceptable if it were similar to the one with Libya: “We go in, blow up the facilities, and dismantle all the equipment, under American supervision and execution. That’s the ideal scenario…The second option, which we don’t want, is that they’ll simply drag out the negotiations, and in that case, the military option becomes the only choice.”
While often discrete in doing so, Oman has historically acted as a regional broker, mediator, and backchannel for sensitive negotiations, especially between the US, Iran, and conservative US-aligned Sunni states. In 2013, Oman hosted the initial US-Iranian talks which resulted in the JCPOA being signed two years later. Oman also helped facilitate 2023’s Iran-Saudi normalisation agreement with Iraqi assistance, and has acted as a diplomatic touchpoint for Bahrain to positively engage with both Iran and Qatar.

Looking ahead: With so many substantive gaps between the sides, and still disagreement as to whether talks will be direct or indirect, there is little optimism of a breakthrough in the short-term.

It has also been reported that Witkoff may not travel to Oman if Iran continues to refuse to hold direct talks with him.

April 8, 2025

Netanyahu meets Trump as US eyes Iran talks

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu met President Trump at the White House yesterday (7th April) in a hastily arranged meeting that reportedly focused on tariffs and Iran, with some attention also given to the war in Gaza and the hostages still held there by Hamas.

Trump announced that the US will be holding direct talks with Iran in an attempt to reach a new deal on the Iranian nuclear programme. Talks are due to begin this Saturday in Oman, where an American delegation led by Steve Witkoff will meet the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
This will be the first such high-level contact between the sides in ten years. Failure to reach an agreement would place Tehran “in great danger,” in Trump’s words.
Netanyahu had hoped to secure an American cancellation of tariffs imposed on Israel last week. This was not forthcoming, though President Trump did commend Israel for eliminating duties on American goods last week. Referring to Israeli efforts to eliminate any remaining barriers to US imports in Israel, Netanyahu said “I think Israel can serve as a model for many countries who ought to do the same.”

Context: The 2015 agreement between Iran and six leading states, known as the JCPOA, limiting Iran’s nuclear programme for a period of fifteen years was deeply opposed by Israel as well as hawkish element in domestic American politics and elsewhere. Disagreement over the JCPOA was the high point of tensions between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

In 2018, President Trump withdrew from the agreement, but the other countries who were part of it — the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China — did not.
It has been ten years since the last time the US and Iran engaged in direct talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, and the implied threat hovering over the talks of US-led military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities hasn’t changed. But at least three aspects of the threat and incentive structure are dramatically different in 2025 compared to 2015:
- Iran appears to have enriched significantly more uranium than was the case in 2015.
- Iran’s ability to defend itself from aerial attacks is greatly degraded as a result of the Israeli operation in 2024 which destroyed its air defences as well as its missile fuel production facility.
- Iran’s array of regional proxies threatening Israel and American interests in the region has been even more severely degraded than its air defence system. The Assad regime in Syria has fallen. Hezbollah in Lebanon has been almost entirely taken out of a commission since a rapid Israeli offensive last autumn. And Hamas in Gaza has been pinned down by the destructive war it launched on October 7, 2023.
An additional Iranian proxy, the Houthis in Yemen, have also experienced strikes from the US. Following the Trump-Netanyahu meeting US Secretary of Defense Hegseth told reporters “It’s been a bad three weeks for the Houthis, and it’s about to get worse.” He described the campaign as “devastating,” targeting underground facilities, weapons manufacturing bunkers, Houthi fighters, and air defence systems. Hegseth also criticised Iran for its continued support warning that “We have a lot more options and a lot more pressure to apply.”
Israel’s strategic posture vis-à-vis a negotiated process it is not a direct party to is also significantly different from what it was in 2015. On the one hand, it is much less threatened by Iranian deterrent assets on its borders. On the other, if it opposes whatever deal the Trump administration reaches with the Iranians, it has no one in domestic American politics with whom it can make a common cause over such opposition.
Despite the less festive tone (in comparison to the previous Netanyahu Oval Office visit earlier this year) and the obvious areas of disagreement, both Israel and American officials were keen to emphasise the ideological and personal alignment of the two countries’ leaders.

Looking Ahead: As negotiations get underway, the positions staked out by the US and Iran on the most contentious issues are very far apart. Israel, which is not a party to the talks, insists on a “Libya model,” alluding to the 2003 agreement which saw Libya dismantle entirely its nascent nuclear facilities and ship them out of the country.

The announcement of direct US-Iran talks shuts the window, for now, on an Israeli military offensive against Iranian nuclear assets. Israel cannot launch an attack while the US is negotiating with Iran without angering the American administration. And if talks succeed in reaching an agreement, Israel cannot realistically launch an attack either. If talks fail, it will be up to the US to carry out its threats against the Iranians, or find itself in a weaker position in any future diplomatic confrontation. Referencing just such a threat, President Trump said, “I think everybody agrees that doing a deal would be preferable to doing the obvious.”
Both the Prime Minister and the President addressed the question of Turkey’s role in Syria in particularly delicate terms. The implication of both men’s comments was that the US will seek to mediate discreet understandings between Turkey and Israel regarding each side’s most vital interests in post-Assad Syria. Israel is very concerned about a jihadist government on its doorstep backed by Turkey, a hostile regional power that is also a member of NATO.
President Trump is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia next month, and it is widely speculated that he would like a new ceasefire in Gaza in place in time for that visit, and that he is particularly keen to see the last remaining living hostage with US citizenship, Edan Alexander, among those released.

March 17, 2025

Weekend US air strikes in Yemen killed dozens

What’s happened: Described by CENTCOM as “powerful and decisive,” US air strikes continued overnight, expanding from Sanaa to the Al Jaouf and Hudaydah areas.

The Houthis have said that the current death toll stands at 53.
President Trump also warned Iran to “immediately” withdraw its support for the Houthis. His National Security Advisor Walz confirmed that the main target was the Houthi leadership.
US Defence Secretary Hesgeth pledged that America’s response would be “unrelenting” until the Houthis ceased their attacks, adding that “this campaign is about freedom of navigation and restoring deterrence”.
While denying that Tehran supported the Houthis, Major General Hossein Salami, a commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), threatened a “decisive” response if Iran was threatened, and referred to the Houthis as “the representatives of the Yemenis”.
The Houthis claim to have retaliated with a series of their own strikes against the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman with up to 18 missiles and a drone. The US has not commented on this matter, but it is a likely that – as in the past – the Houthis grossly exaggerated the impact of their attacks.
One missile fired from Yemen landed in Egypt close to the Sharm el-Sheikh resort in the Sinai Peninsula. No injuries, fatalities, or damage has been reported, and the IDF is currently investigating as to whether it was aimed at Israel.

Context: The US attacks follow Houthi threats to resume their longstanding attacks on what the group claims is “Israel-linked” shipping in and around the Red Sea in the event that the fragile ceasefire in Gaza did not hold.

These attacks began in November 2023, ostensibly in solidarity with Hamas and the people of Gaza during Operation Swords of Iron.
The Houthis claimed that they were maintaining what amounted to a naval blockade on Israel. Yet in practice, they were indiscriminately targeting almost all international shipping in and around the Red Sea, often under pretence that a particular vessel was “Israel-linked”.
In November 2023, the Houthis boarded and seized a British-owned cargo ship (the Galaxy Leader), and held its crew prisoner until January 2025. Its parent company is co-owned by an Israeli businessman.
Since then, the Houthis have attacked US warships 174 times, and commercial vessels 145 times. Approximately 12% of global shipping passes through the affected area, much of which was suspended for insurance reasons. This has caused significant disruptions, forcing shipping to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope causing increased transit times and associated costs.
Concurrently, the Houthis launched over 40 ballistic missiles and 320 drones at Israel, sometimes in what was claimed as a joint operation with Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militias.
These attacks caused limited casualties and damage, but had a significant impact on the Israeli economy, especially Eilat where they have forced the city’s port to close and declare bankruptcy in July 2024.
The strikes over the weekend mark the first US strikes on Yemen since President Trump took office in January, and follow his threats that “hell will rain down on you” unless the ceased their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
Despite Tehran’s denials, the Houthis are widely viewed as Iran’s most important proxy in the Arabian Peninsula, and have benefited from training and weaponry from the Islamic Republic. They are an established part of the “Axis of Resistance”, and a key mechanism for Tehran to project influence against rival Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
While the Biden Administration took some military action against the Houthis, it was limited and predominantly defensive. Those few US and US-led air strikes had little deterring effect, and failed to prevent attacks on international shipping or Israel.

Looking ahead: While Israel has conducted its own sporadic air strikes in Yemen, it is hoped that the US will establish robust deterrence against the Houthis, thus preventing further attacks against Israel and international shipping in and around the Red Sea.

The Israeli Air Force has raised its readiness levels in anticipation of further Houthi drone or missile attacks against Israel in coming days. In the event of a significant attack, independent Israeli or joint US-Israeli strikes on Yemen are a realistic possibility.
Prior to the autumn of 2023, Israel’s intelligence collection efforts were predominantly focused on the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Attacks by more distance enemies in Yemen and Iraq may refocus these priorities, and result in more direct collection efforts by the Israeli intelligence community rather than relying on products from CENTCOM.

January 3, 2025

IDF continues effort to demilitarise southern Lebanon, as Houthis attack again

What’s happening: The IDF continues to target Hezbollah’s military infrastructure within the provisions of the ceasefire agreement.

On Thursday the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck two Hezbollah sites in Nabatieh that housed medium-range rocket launchers.
The IDF Spokesperson’s Office said, “As part of the enforcement of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon, prior to the strike a request was sent to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to neutralise the launchers that posed a threat to Israeli civilians and IDF troops. The launchers were struck only after the request was not addressed by the LAF.”
Earlier this week the IDF exposed extensive military infrastructure that Hezbollah had embedded in village of Naqoura, located on the ridge just above the Israeli coastal communities of Rosh Hanikra and Kibbutz Rosh Hanikra and adjacent to the main UNIFIL headquarters in southern Lebanon.
An IDF commander was quoted in the Israeli media saying, “When we scoured the village, we found unbelievable quantities of arms. There were warehouses, lookout points and military equipment in virtually every home.”
Another soldier is quoted saying, “Until a few days ago, there were several dozen different citrus trees here; we found ready launchers and weapons and ammunition hidden among the trees, hidden in a formation aimed directly at Israel… The rocket launchers were positioned close to the trees and under the branches; if we hadn’t physically entered, we wouldn’t have spotted them, either from the air or when driving by. We really had to enter the area and scour it; the closer we got to the UN headquarters and to Israel, you found more arms because it was closer to Israel. It felt like the UN was covering for them.”
Inside the houses in Naqoura, the IDF found explosive devices, rocket-propelled grenades and Kalashnikov rifles. The troops also located Burqan rockets, rocket launchers, mortars and other weapons.
One of the reasons the IDF had avoided operating in the area until the very last moment was the village’s proximity to the UNIFIL headquarters.
Elsewhere the IDF have also continued to expose underground tunnels, headquarters, arms warehouses, loaded launchers, trucks with launchers.
Last week, the IAF struck infrastructure that was used to smuggle weapons via Syria to Hezbollah at the Janta Crossing on the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Also on Thursday, Syrian sources reported an Israeli airstrike on a military facility near Aleppo.

Houthi attack: Once more in the early hours of the morning millions of Israelis took shelter following sirens as a result of another missile fired by the Houthis from Yemen.

The missile entered Israeli air space with shrapnel falling in the Modiin area. No injuries were reported.
Houthi Spokesman Hizam al-Assad wrote on X that the Yemeni people have the right to punish the people who are punishing children in Gaza. He wrote that the temporary Zionist entity will eventually disappear – God willing, it will be the Yemeni people who cause that to happen.

Operation Many Ways: The IDF have for the first time revealed details of their surprise attack on an Iranian-built precision guided missile factory built under a mountain in an underground facility in Syria that was on the cusp of becoming operational.

The site in Masyaf, west of Hama, was more than 200 km north of Israel and was attacked on the night of September 8^th.
Israeli intelligence had been monitoring the site for several years. It was targeted as it was about to become operational with the ability to produce hundreds of advanced missiles a year.
Under the cover of darkness, over 100 commandos operated inside the missile manufacturing site which was defended by dozens of aerial defence systems deep in the heart of Syria.
Within two-and-a-half hours, the troops captured documentation, destroyed the site and returned safely home.
This was the largest IDF raid, with troops on the ground, since the 1976 operation to rescue hostages in Entebbe International Airport.

Context: The ceasefire with Lebanon has been in place since 27^th November. Since then, and according to the terms of the agreement and part of the understandings with the US, Israel has continued to operate against pockets of Hezbollah resistance and its military infrastructure.

There have also been dozens of violations of Hezbollah still operating or trying to return to southern Lebanon. However there have not been any significant attacks on Israeli territory since the deal came into effect.
In some parts of southern Lebanon, the IDF appears satisfied that the LAF are deploying to prevent Hezbollah re-establishing a presence.
In other places this deployment has been slow, leading Israel to question whether they will be able to complete the withdrawal in the allocated 60 days.
As such, Israel is studying the option of keeping IDF troops deployed in a number of strategic sites in southern Lebanon even after the 60 days.
A second reason to remain is to have the required time to decommission the large quantities of Hezbollah weapons and infrastructure that are still being found on the ground.
The slow pace of the LAF deployment is explained by their overall weakness and the necessity to deploy larger and better trained troops than in the past.
A second explanation could be pressure being exerted by Hezbollah on the LAF.
Israel has lodged several complaints in recent weeks about the LAF’s slow deployment, and said that if Lebanon fails to meet the commitments it undertook in the context of the agreement between the countries, Israel would be forced to remain in southern Lebanon to protect its communities.
The strikes on the Syrian-Lebanon border attest to continued Iranian led efforts to maintain smuggling routes for weapons.
There is concern that Iran may try to circumvent these exposed routes and instead resort to flying weapons direct into Beirut airport that would pose a difficult dilemma for Israel how to respond.

Looking ahead: We are now over halfway through the initial 60 day ceasefire which will expire on 26^th January.

No decision has been made but the option of leaving IDF troops stationed in southern Lebanon will be explored and coordinated with the incoming Trump administration

December 23, 2024

Houthi Missile Strikes Tel Aviv Again

What happened: At least 16 people were injured in a missile strike on southern Tel Aviv in the early hours of Saturday morning.

The missile fired from Yemen landed in a children’s playground that was empty at the time, with damage caused to surrounding apartments.
For the second time in three days, millions of Israelis in the centre of the country were woken up by sirens in the middle of the night.
The military is investigating why Israel’s anti-missile defence systems failed to intercept the missile.
Yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the attack saying, “Just as we have acted forcefully against the terror arms of Iran’s axis of evil, so too will we act against the Houthis. However, in this case, we are not acting alone. Like us, the US and other countries see the Houthis not only as a threat to international maritime navigation but to the international order as well.”
Addressing the Israeli public, he asked for “patience” in dealing with this threat, and “to continue showing the same resilience that you have shown up until now, and to strictly follow Home Front Command directives.”
While Israel has not yet responded to this latest attack, the US military struck a missile storage facility and a command-and-control facility in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, on Saturday night. According to a CENTCOM statement, the strikes aimed to “disrupt and degrade Houthi operations, such as attacks against US navy warships and merchant vessels in the southern Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden.”

Context: Unlike other Iranian proxies (primarily Hezbollah and Hamas) that directly threaten Israel, the Houthis also represent a threat to the wider interests of the US, UK and international community though their targeting of maritime trade.

The targeting of international shipping lanes has also badly damaged the Egyptian economy, with fleets forced to find alternative routes to avoid the Bab al-Mandeb straits and by extension the Suez Canal. Similarly, the southern Israeli port of Eilat has effectively been shut down.
Earlier this year, the US and UK conducted five joint naval and air strikes against the Houthis in response to their ongoing attacks against international cargo ships.
Houthi leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, last week declared that over the last 14 months they had fired 1,147 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or drones.
According to Israeli figures, around 400 of those have been directed towards Israel (the vast majority of which have been successfully intercepted) while the rest targeted international ships.
Recent data suggests these attacks are increasing. According to the Alma Research and Education Centre, there have been 12 attacks so far in December, compared to a previous monthly average of five.
The Israeli assessment is that while the missile and drones are supplied by Iran, the Houthis act relatively independently.
Their motivation is to support Hamas and the Palestinian cause which is popular domestically and across the Arab world. Furthermore, their ability to disrupt international shipping lanes raises their international profile.
Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the world ranked 183^rd out of 191 countries with a per capita income of $477 a year (compared to $3,372 in the Palestinian territories). Two thirds of its approximately 30 million population live with food insecurity or hunger.
Israel faces substantial challenges in dealing with the Houthis, primarily due to the significant distance from Yemen (2,000km). As such, Israeli intelligence does not possess a bank of targets and find it harder to track and locate Houthi leaders who could also form potential targets.
The three Israeli strikes over the last year have focused on state infrastructure, such as fuel depots and the ports used to import the Iranian weapons.
These recent attacks raise speculation that Israel could choose to punish Iran for continuing to support and supply the Houthis.
The continued attacks also present an opportunity for Israel to increase its military coordination with regional allies like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf states that also face threats from the Houthis and Iran.
In separate but related news, Arab media has reported that the Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq announced they are stopping their attacks against Israel. The decision was made in the framework of an agreement with the president of Iraq Al Sudani who has been applying pressure on the militias to cease attacks against Israel.

Looking ahead: As the Houthis appear to operate independently, it is feared they will continue to attack Israel.

Israel will be hoping that the incoming Trump administration will take a more forceful approach.

LATEST