What’s happening: The Israeli negotiating team is set to begin intensive talks in Sharm el-Sheikh in an effort to reach a hostage deal within the next few days.

• Last night Prime Minister Netanyahu convened the inner security cabinet to discuss preparations for the deal and give instructions to the negotiators. Attending were ministers Katz, Saar, Dermer, Smotrich and Ben Gvir as well as David Zini, the new director of the Shin Bet. 
• The Israeli team currently traveling to Egypt includes Coordinator for the Captives and Missing Brig. Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch, Hostage Coordinator Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, Netanyahu’s foreign policy adviser Ophir Falk as well as Mossad, Shin Bet and IDF officials.   
• The top priority is to finalise the first stage of Trump’s plan, which includes the release of all 20 living hostages and the bodies of 28 fallen the hostages within 72 hours. 
• Among the key issues to be discussed:
  • Technical aspects of coordinating the hostages’ handover to the Red Cross. 
  • The parallel release of Palestinian prisoners.
  • The lines of IDF redeployment.
• In his latest comments President Trump said that he had been informed that the first phase of the peace plan should be completed this week. President Trump wrote: “We had some very good meetings…and it looks like it’s working, so we’ll wait for a little while, see how it all turns out. I am asking everyone to MOVE FAST. I will continue to monitor this Centuries old ‘conflict.’ TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE OR, MASSIVE BLOODSHED WILL FOLLOW — SOMETHING THAT NOBODY WANTS TO SEE!”  
• US Secretary of State Rubio said yesterday that 90 per cent of the details of the hostage deal that are to be discussed in Egypt have already been settled and said that the remaining issues must not take weeks to resolve.

Context: For as long as President Trump remains personally invested there is increasing cautious confidence that a deal could be achieved. 

• Despite Rubio’s (and others) confidence there appear to still be significant gaps between the sides. 
• Israel believes that Hamas will ask to expand the Israeli withdrawal in Trump’s map to beyond the yellow line. Israeli officials also anticipate that Hamas will argue that it needs the IDF to withdraw from more areas so that it can round up all the hostages and bring them to the places where they are to be released. 
• While Trump set a strict time frame of 72 hours, Israel expects that Hamas will try to extend the deadline. It believes that Hamas will ask for more time to find the remains of all the deceased hostages, which are located in a number of places across the Gaza Strip. 
• Hamas is expected to demand the release of all the heavyweight prisoners serving life sentences, and to prioritise the oldest and those serving the longest sentences. 
• So far there are highly symbolic prisoners that Hamas has demanded and Israel has refused to release these include:
  • Marwan Barghouti – Convicted in 2004 of five counts of murders. Affiliated with Fatah, he is considered by Palestinians as a potential future leader.   
  • Ibrahim Hamed – Hamas military commander in the West Bank who was convicted of orchestrating multiple suicide bombings during the Second Intifada that killed dozens of Israeli civilians.
  • Abdullah Barghouti – Convicted for manufacturing bombs used in numerous suicide bombings and other mass‐casualty attacks which killed dozens and wounded hundreds. He is serving the longest sentence (67 life terms). 
  • Ahmad Saadat – Deemed responsible for the assassination of Minister Rehavam Ze’evi in 2001, and is a leader in the PFLP.
  • Hassan Salama – Leading figure in Hamas’ Al‑Qassam Brigades, convicted and serving many life sentences. 
  • Abbas al‑Sayed – Convicted for masterminding the 2002 Passover “Park Hotel” suicide bombing in Netanya and other terrorist attacks; sentenced to many life sentences. 
• According to the Trump plan outline Israel should release 250 prisoners serving life sentences and 1700 other prisoners. 
• The problem is that there are only 285 life-term prisoners which leaves Israel with limited flexibility. 
• Israel is also adamant that among 1,700 Palestinians due to be released who were arrested since October 7 2023 they will not be releasing Nukba terrorists that participated in the massacre. 
• The location of the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh represents the Egyptian upper hand in hosting these talks after the failed efforts in Qatar.
• The Hamas delegation is led by Khalil al-Hayya who survived the attempted assassination attempt in Qatar.
• Among Trump’s significant achievements to reach this point was to receive the backing of Hamas supporting Qatar and Turkey. It remains to be seen whether they are prepared to place real substantive pressure on Hamas to conclude a deal, for example by expelling Hamas external leadership if they do not reach an agreement.

Looking ahead: According to the US assessment today’s talks will focus primarily on technical issues, and will not require the involvement of the senior US officials. 

• Only once there is recorded progress will the two lead US envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner join the talks in the next couple of days.
• Similarly, Israel’s lead negotiator Minister Ron Dermer will also only join once progress has been made. Dermer has never held even indirect talks with Hamas in such close proximity.   
• The Americans want to conclude the negotiations and possibly even have the hostages released before October 10 – the day the Nobel Peace Prize is announced.
• Only if there is progress on the first stage will the sides continue to discuss further IDF redeployment and the full disarmament of Hamas. 
• Tomorrow marks the second anniversary of the October 7 massacre. 

Gaza: During Yom Kippur Hamas were able to launch five rockets towards Ashdod, four were intercepted whilst one landed in an open area.

• On Wednesday several projectiles were launched from the Khan Yunis area and landed in the aid distribution site in Rafah, but did not cause any damage. 
• According to the IDF, “Despite the projectile launches fired, the aid distribution site opened yesterday, and thousands of weekly food packages were distributed to Gazan residents, without Hamas’ involvement.” 
• According to COGAT over the last week, 1,517 aid trucks entered Gaza, whist 2,14 trucks were able to distribute aid, with an additional 404 awaiting collection inside Gaza.  
• In addition the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has distributed more than 175 million meals since their operations began at the end of May. 
• The IDF has continued to expand its incursion and is now operating in the heart of Gaza City, an estimated 1.5 km from the coast. It has also created an additional divide south of the Capital, including security checks on those leaving to the south.  
• Off the coast the Israeli navy took control of more than 40 vessels that participated in the “Gaza Freedom Flotilla.” Over 400 flotilla participants were arrested and brought to Ashdod Port ahead of their deportation from the country, no casualties were reported. 

Waiting on Hamas: Three days after US President Trump presented his peace plan for ending the war in Gaza, (giving Hamas a deadline of three or four days to respond), there has so far been no formal answer. 

• It is understood there is an internal disagreement within the organisation between those who want to reject the plan and those who would prefer to consider it in depth, on condition that significant changes are made. 
• Hamas appears to have several demands:
  • A clear timeline for the IDF to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
  • Assurances that there will be internal Palestinian rule that isn’t dictated to by external parties. 
  • A refusal to fully disarm.
• Hamas is also looking to coordinate their position with other Palestinian factions. 
• According to the assessments, Hamas will likely choose the “yes, but” option, willingness to continue talks alongside presenting new demands.
• 48 hostages remain in Gaza, including 20 who are still alive. The Trump plan would require Hamas to release all of them within 72 hours of the start of the ceasefire. Hamas has claimed that this deadline might be difficult to deliver, particularly as some are held by different factions.
• Some senior Hamas members are also opposed to the deployment of “a temporary international stabilising force” in Gaza, to be operated by the US and Arab countries which Hamas sees as a new type of occupation.

What’s happened: President Trump unveiled his 20-point plan for ending the war at a White House press conference with Prime Minister Netanyahu, who accepted the plan on Israel’s behalf. The plan has also been endorsed by foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt.

• Speaking after President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the new plan “will bring back to Israel all our hostages, dismantle Hamas’ military capabilities, end its political rule, and ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.” (More details below.)
• Prime Minister Starmer announced his “strong support” for the plan to end the war, saying, “the new US initiative to deliver an end to the war in Gaza is profoundly welcome and I am grateful for President Trumps’ leadership.” French President Macron also endorsed the plan, adding that “Hamas has no choice but to immediately release all hostages and follow this plan.”
• Before the announcement, Netanyahu called the Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani to apologise for the Israeli air strike on Doha on September 9. Specifically, the Prime Minister expressed regret that a Qatari citizen had been killed in the strike (which also eliminated five Hamas officials) and committed not to violate Qatari sovereignty again in the future. Netanyahu also told his Qatari counterpart, “I know your leadership has grievances against Israel and Israel has grievances against Qatar, from support for the Muslim Brotherhood to how Israel is portrayed on Al Jazeera to support for anti-Israel sentiment on college campuses.”

Trump plan in detail: The terms of the Trump plan would see Israel achieving nearly all the goals it set for itself at the war’s outset, but not those of some of the far-right coalition partners.

• All Israeli hostages, living and dead, held by Hamas are to be released in the first 72 hours of the implementation of the agreement, before any changes are undertaken in IDF deployments. In exchange, Israel will release 250 Palestinians serving life sentences for terror offences and 1700 Gazans detained since the war began two years ago, including all women and children. For every dead hostage released by Hamas, Israel will hand over 15 bodies of Palestinians.
• The agreement stipulates a staged withdrawal process of Israeli forces that does not end at the pre-war boundary. Each of three withdrawals is conditioned on benchmarks of Hamas disarmament and the entry of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) manned by Arab and Muslim countries. The last stage in the agreement will still see Israel hold on to a narrow buffer zone on the border of the Gaza Strip.
• Amnesty will be offered to Hamas members who “commit to peaceful coexistence” and “decommission their weapons.” Presumably allowing Israel to continue to act against those that do neither.    
• An international “Board of Peace” headed by Trump and former Prime Minister Tony Blair will oversee the governance of the Gaza Strip by means of a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” not answerable, initially at least, to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
• The re-entry of the PA into Gaza is conditioned on a set of reform’s in line with Trump’s 2020 Peace Plan. The reforms include provisions for rule of law, financial reform, an end to incitement and changes in school textbooks, and a monopoly of arms in the PA’s civilian law enforcement agencies that decommissioned arms from various militias and terrorist organisations.
• The plan recognises the Palestinian “aspiration” for statehood, but nowhere guarantees it as an outcome. Palestinian self-determination is conditioned on the American demands for a reformed PA. 
• There will be no mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, no American suzerainty, and no “riviera.” The plan guarantees that “no one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return.” There is no provision anywhere in the plan for Israeli settlement of any part of the Strip or any Israeli annexation of territory.
• The plan includes a massive ramping up of aid. It does not eliminate UNRWA, nor does it eliminate the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
• The endorsements of countries such as Saudi Arabia and France are notable as Trump’s plan places conditions on the Palestinians to meet in order to move forward on the long-term aspiration for statehood rather than promising it to them at the outset or, as in Starmer’s initiative, offering recognition as a punishment for Israel. 
• The new plan differs from previous ceasefire initiatives in that it ends the war right away, has all hostages released immediately, and does not involve a full Israeli withdrawal from all territory in the Gaza Strip.
• It is also significant that along with Israel’s Arab allies, this plan is also endorsed by those countries that support Hamas, primarily Turkey and Qatar. 

Looking ahead: Hamas has not publicly stated whether it accepts Trump’s plan. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the region, told US media that Hamas had indicted to him that they would “study the plan in good faith and provide an answer.”  He praised this response as “a very positive initial reaction for a group that hasn’t yet had time to fully review our proposal.”

• Besides Trump and Blair, it is not yet known who will sit on the “Board of Peace.” The White House is expected to begin announcing the Board’s membership in the coming days.
• At the press conference, Trump said that if Hamas did not agree to his plan, the US will let Israel “do what you would have to do.” In such a situation, he said, “Israel would have my full backing to finish the job of destroying the threat of Hamas.”
• As part of Netanyahu’s apology to Qatar it was agreed that a trilateral (Israel, Qatar, US)   forum will be convened to work through areas of disagreement.

What’s happened: The IDF has launched a major ground offensive into Gaza City. Two divisions have entered the city from two different directions, and a third is expected to join them in the coming days. 

• Eyal Zamir, Chief of General Staff of the IDF, accompanied troops from the 98th Division into Gaza City. Addressing soldiers he said, “In the time since October 7, the day when we were brutally attacked, our operational doctrine has completely changed. In cooperation with the range of security organisations, we eliminated most of Hamas’s leadership, we degraded the entire Iranian axis of evil and we removed existential threats in the context of Operation Rising Lion. Those results, which were achieved through the sacrifice and courage of our brave soldiers in the air, sea and land, have created a new security reality and opportunities that might improve the State of Israel’s strategic situation and the reality in the Middle East to our benefit.”
• UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper condemned the new IDF offensive, calling it “utterly reckless and appalling” and warning that “it will only bring more bloodshed, kill more innocent civilians & endanger the remaining hostages.” She was joined in her condemnations by foreign ministers from Germany, the Netherlands, and other countries. The Canadian Foreign Ministry’s statement expressed concern that the Israeli operation “jeopardises the release of hostages” without mentioning the party that abducted and holds the hostages, and further said that “Israel must adhere to international law” without pointing to any international law that the Israeli offensive supposedly violated.
• Responding to reports that Hamas was moving Israeli hostages into Gaza City and placing them above ground in places likely to be sites of intense combat, President Trump said, “I hear Hamas is trying to use the old human shield deal, and if they do that they’re going to be in big trouble.” 
• Prime Minister Netanyahu also reacted to Hamas threats to harm the hostages, saying, “If they harm a hair on the head of even one hostage, we will hunt them down with greater force until the end of their lives — and that end will come much faster than they think.”
• Israel ramped up its attacks on the Houthis in Yemen yesterday with a strike on the port facilities in Hodeida. Previous attacks have only focused on oil facilities at the port; yesterday’s strike was much broader and, if successful, puts the Houthis in a much more severe economic blockade than before.
• Two British MPs were denied entry into Israel. Peter Prinsley and Simon Opher, both of the Labour Party, were due to visit the West Bank on a trip organised by the Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU) and Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP).

Context: At least 350,000 Gazans have heeded the IDF’s call to evacuate the city and have moved to points further south. The army expects many more to do so now that the operation has begun, and it has announced a second evacuation route to be opened today at noon. This route, along the inland Salah a-Din road, will remain open until noon on Friday. Evacuations until now have taken place along the coastal route. The IDF estimates that even after this evacuation period, between 100,000 and 300,000 civilians will remain in Gaza City.

• Israel Hayom reports that on the eve of the new operation, the IDF was already in control of roughly 40% of Gaza City, following operations in neighbourhoods on the outskirts of the city in Jabaliya, Sheikh Radwan, and Zeitoun.
• In the week leading up to the new ground offensive, the Israeli Air Force struck 850 targets, with approximately 50 targets struck in Gaza City last night. The IDF estimated that Gaza City had around 2,500 Hamas fighters in it before its forces surrounded the city. Current assessments are that that number increased somewhat in the last week as Hamas fighters streamed in from other sectors in preparation for the IDF’s move into the city centre.
• Opposition MKs have criticised the government’s priorities. “Conquering Gaza City yet another time on its own won’t deliver the goods,” said Benny Gantz, a former IDF chief of staff and defence minister, “Operation Gideon’s Chariots II, like the first, needs to be utilised to free our hostages, to destroy Hamas and to ensure a governmental alternative that isn’t Israel, and that is something Netanyahu hasn’t done until now for political reasons. Two years after the war began, Hamas is still administering the population, and we have to change that.”
• In Haaretz, Amos Harel writes, “Military forces are advancing relatively slowly at this stage and are doing so very cautiously. By comparison, when the IDF entered the Gaza Strip at the end of October 2023 following the massacre in Israeli border communities, the units moved quickly, deep on the ground, even though Hamas’ defensive preparations at the time were more difficult to crack and penetrate than they are now.” Noting the lack of enthusiasm among top security officials for the operation, Harel describes Netanyahu’s decision to go ahead with the operation as “perhaps his biggest gamble since the beginning of the war nearly two years ago.” 

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that President Trump has invited him to come to the White House on September 29. This will be three days after Netanyahu is expected to address the UN General Assembly. 

• The European Commission is expected to vote today to recommend a series of measures to be taken against Israel, including the suspension of a trade agreement and a renewal of import duties on Israeli products entering the European Union. In order to go into effect, the measures would need the approval of a qualified majority of European governments. Currently, opposition to the measures by Italy and Germany blocks such a majority, but speculation is rife that Italy could be persuaded to drop its opposition, especially if Israel takes retaliatory moves against the expected recognition of a Palestinian state next week, for example by shutting the French Consulate in Jerusalem. 
• The Israeli security cabinet is scheduled to meet tomorrow evening.

What’s happened: The IDF has indicated that it has now “begun destroying Hamas infrastructure in Gaza City”, suggesting that its promised offensive has now begun earlier than anticipated. Israeli tanks were reported in Gaza City, and it is estimated that approximately 350,000 have evacuated to different parts of the Gaza Strip.

• Objectives remain unchanged, namely dismantling Hamas and bringing the hostages home.
• Two divisions are operating, and more will join them in due course. The IDF is working to set the conditions for civilians to distance themselves from combat zones and move into humanitarian areas.
• Now that this offensive has begun, its priorities will be encircling and operating deeper within Gaza City. It follows close to two years of war since Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel on 7th October 2023, and is hoped to dismantle the terrorist group in its final bastion in the Gaza Strip.
• Approximately 60,000 reservists were called up for this operation, augmenting the 70,000 already in reserve service.
• Following Israel’s air strikes on Doha last week, Arab and Islamic leaders have met at an emergency summit convened in the Qatari capital. A joint Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation session, it included close to sixty countries including both Iran, all three Arab Abraham Accords signatories (the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco), as well as Egypt and Jordan.
• The summit was concluded with a joint statement calling for “all states to take all possible legal and effective measures to prevent Israel from continuing its actions against the Palestinian people…[including] reviewing diplomatic and economic relations with it, and initiating legal proceedings against it”, though it is unclear what practical steps will be taken in its aftermath, if any.
• Commenting at the summit, the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, alleged that last week’s airstrike amounted to “pure terrorism”, and that no Arab or Muslim capital was safe from similar strikes. This condemnation comes despite Iran themselves also firing a ballistic missile at US bases in Qatar in June.
• Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, accused Israel of having no genuine interest in peace, attempting “to thwart negotiations”, and pledged to “do whatever is necessary to preserve our sovereignty and confront Israeli aggression.”
• It is unclear how Qatar may do this, especially given its post-strike statements that it will continue to mediate ceasefire and hostage release negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
• Egypt has also reportedly called for the establishment of a Cairo-based joint Arab military command that would operate in a similar manner to NATO, providing assurances of mutual defence against external aggression and attacks.
• Despite their attendance at the Doha summit and prior statements condemning Israel’s air strikes, none of the Abraham Accords signatory countries sent heads of state, instead being represented by senior officials.

Context: US Secretary of State Rubio is partway through a regional trip to visit both Israel and Qatar. He is now due to visit the UK for meetings with the Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, and “to join President Trump’s delegation for his unprecedented second State Visit.”

• While in Israel, Rubio reaffirmed that Washington’s priorities were the release of Israeli hostages and the destruction of Hamas, and refrained from directly criticising the Doha air strike in his public comments alongside Netanyahu.
• Earlier this morning while travelling to Doha, Rubio also warned of a “short window” in which to secure a ceasefire in Gaza while praising Qatar for its ongoing mediation of negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
• In a speech on Monday, Prime Minister Netanyahu also admitted that Israel was becoming increasingly isolated at a conference hosted by the Finance Ministry, specifically blaming Muslim immigration within the EU and online Qatari and Chinese propaganda.
• Netanyahu said part of this isolation was economic, with Israel needing to become more self-reliant. The Prime Minister singled out the arms industry as one where Israel would come to rely more on domestic production than on trade, expressing out loud what has been a growing consensus in Israel since the war began nearly two years ago.
• In the part of the speech that was most quoted, especially by critics of the Prime Minister, he said, “We are Athens and Sparta. But we’re going to be Athens and super-Sparta.”
• Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid responded that “isolation isn’t fate, it’s the product of the wrong and failing policies of Netanyahu and his government,” while former Prime Minister Ehud Barak said, “’Super Sparta’ is the end of the country: economically, politically and militarily.”

Looking ahead: Last night, Canada, France, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and UK held a call to discuss “advancing peace”. Chaired by President Macron of France, a subsequent readout said that “all leaders agreed that the focus must remain on advancing peace and security, including reaching a lasting ceasefire, securing the release of all hostages and the disarmament of Hamas, and scaling up flows of life-saving assistance for Palestinian civilians.”

• Ahead of President Trump and Secretary Rubio’s visit to London, it is likely that Prime Minister Starmer will raise these points, and attempt to further align the UK and US in calling for and advancing an immediate ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza, as well as increased aid provision.