What’s happened: Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has told reporters that Hamas no longer exists as an organised military force after eleven months of combat operations in the Gaza Strip.

• Briefing the foreign press yesterday, Gallant said: “Hamas as a military formation no longer exists. Hamas is engaged in guerrilla warfare and we are still fighting Hamas terrorists and pursuing Hamas leadership.”
• Gallant also said that conditions were “ripe” for the first phase of a ceasefire deal with Hamas which would result in a six week pause in fighting and partial withdrawal of Israeli troops in return for the release of female, young (under-18), elderly, or unwell hostages. Gallant however did not commit to permanently ending combat operations in Gaza.
• These comments come as Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, confirmed that the US was working closely with Qatar and Egypt to “to bridge any remaining gaps” between Israel and Hamas, and that a new proposal framework would be put to both parties “very soon”.
• Speaking at the same London press conference as Blinken, British Foreign Secretary, Lammy, confirmed “there can be no role for Hamas going forward”, seemingly aligning with Israel’s post-war governance vision for Gaza.
• Bloomberg reports that Israel had offered Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar and his family, safe passage out of Gaza in return for the release of all hostages held by the group. It is unclear what Hamas’s response to this offer has been.
• The offer was reportedly made by Gal Hirsch, the Israeli government’s special envoy for hostages. During a visit to the US, he told Bloomberg that Israel is “ready to provide safe passage to Sinwar, his family, whoever wants to join him…we want the hostages back…we want demilitarisation, de-radicalisation of course — a new system that will manage Gaza.”
• Despite US optimism on the prospects for reaching a ceasefire agreement – Blinken last week claimed that over 90% of outstanding issues had been agreed on – significant obstacles remain, including the presence of Israeli troops in the Philadelphi Corridor.
• While the US is blaming Hamas for the lack of progress on negotiations, Egypt and Qatar have reportedly taken the opposite view and considered issuing a joint statement condemning Israel “for the failure of the contacts”.
• The IDF released footage of the tunnel where Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Ori Danino, Alex Lobanov, Carmel Gat, and Almog Sarusi were held by Hamas before their executions. This tunnel was approximately 700 metres from where Farhan al-Qadi was rescued by Israeli special forces days earlier, and was described by the IDF as having one of its shafts opening “in a children’s room in a house”.
• In the north, the IDF and Hezbollah continue to exchange fire as tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border show little sign of abatement. 45 rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon on Tuesday, targeting Mount Meron and the Western Galilee. Some were intercepted by air defence systems, and no injuries were reported. A number of drones were also launched at northern Israel later in the evening.
• The IDF has responded with a series of counter-strikes on southern Lebanon targeting rocket launchers at at-Tiri and Mansouri, and a building used by Hezbollah in Rachaf.
• Combat operations continue in Gaza Strip, with two Israeli soldiers killed in a helicopter crash in Rafah last night when it impacted the ground instead of touching down correctly.

Context: The release of the footage from the tunnels in Rafah has sharply brought home to both the political leadership and the wider Israeli public the terrible conditions under which the hostages still alive are being held – airless, dark and humid tunnels too low to even stand up in.

• In a potential sign of growing public disillusionment with the Prime Minister’s policies, a conversation was leaked between Netanyahu and Ori Danino’s father, a Shas-voting Rabbi (who would generally be thought of as part of Netanyahu’s natural voting constituency). “Stop dealing with gathering Knesset seats” Danino tells the PM. “this all happened on your watch. My son was murdered in a tunnel that you built on your watch [by allowing funds and dual-use materials into Gaza]. Forgive me, forgive me. You’ve been in power for many years. Very many. The concrete and the dollars went in [to Gaza] on your watch.”
• While the government traditionally claimed that military pressure helped bring about the release of hostages, the recent executions in the Rafah tunnel have led the IDF to alter operational plans.

Looking ahead: Israeli security officials are increasingly turning their attention towards Hezbollah.

• In one of the strongest indications of a potential Israeli incursion into Lebanon, Defence Minister Gallant told troops that the IDF was shifting its focus from Gaza to the northern front, and that they should prepare for a ground offensive there.
• Addressing troops, he said “The centre of gravity is moving to the north, we are nearing the completion of our missions in the south, but we have a task here that has not been carried out, and this mission is to change the security situation and return the residents to their homes”.
• He also confirmed that “We are finishing training the entire order of battle for a ground operation [in Lebanon], in all its aspects”, strongly implying that the IDF is increasing its readiness for combat operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• Speaking at the Middle East America Dialogue (MEAD) summit, an unnamed senior American official warned of the “catastrophic and unforeseen consequences” of a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, saying that thousands, or even tens of thousands, of people could be killed if the tensions escalated into an all-out war, along with heavy damage to both Israeli and Lebanese infrastructure

Allenby Bridge attack: Three Israeli civilians working at the Allenby Bridge border crossing were killed in a terrorist shooting attack on Sunday morning.

• The shooter was a 39 year old Jordanian truck driver who exited the vehicle during a routine inspection at the terminal and opened fire killing three workers.
• The three victims were named as: Yohanan Shchori, 61, a father of six from Ma’ale Efraim; Yuri Birnbaum, 65, from Na’ama; and Adrian Marcelo Podzamczer, from the city of Ariel.
• Security guards on site returned fire at the terrorist, killing him.
• President Herzog expressed his deep condolences to the families, adding, “The peace agreements between Israel and its neighbours are a cornerstone of stability in the region, and we trust all parties will thoroughly investigate the incident and work to prevent future attacks.”
• He added, “This horrific act reinforces our resolve to stand firm in the face of terror, and we will continue to fight with determination against terrorism and extremist elements which seek to undermine our security, and the stability of the whole region.

The north: Syrian media are reporting that Israel attacked several targets inside Syria overnight.

• Syrian state media says that overnight strikes it blamed on Israel killed at least 14 people in central Hama province.
• Reports suggest that several missiles targeted the scientific research facility in Masyaf, which is used by the Iranian military. The compound has been targeted several times in the past.
• The site is known as a major military research centre, including the development of chemical weapons.
• Israel has not commented on the attacks.
• Meanwhile over the weekend Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets towards civilian communities in northern Israel.
• Around 50 rockets were launched on Saturday nightand early Sunday morning. About 30 rockets were fired at Kibbutz Shamir in the Galilee panhandle and at the northern Hula Valley. Some were intercepted and the others fell in uninhabited areas without causing injury.
• Separately about 20 rockets were fired at Kiryat Shmona. Most were intercepted and others fell in uninhabited areas.
• In a familiar pattern, the IDF responded by attacking Hezbollah launchers and other military infrastructure.

Context: Over the weekend Israel marked 11 months since the October 7^th attack and the subsequent attacks from other areas.

• This latest attack on the Jordanian border could imply an eighth front has opened against Israel. In the last 11 months Israel has been attacked from Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen.
• However Israel is reticent to refer to it in that way, as unlike the other countries Jordan remains a key ally.
• Since Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty in 1994, the two countries have cooperated extensively on security and intelligence sharing.  Israel has helped the Hashemite Kingdom face threats from Islamist extremism and Israel relies on Jordan to help police their shared border.
• In recent times there has been growing concern that Iranian proxies have been looking to breach the border and smuggle weapons into the West Bank.
• The Allenby crossing is primarily used to import goods from the Arab world into both Israel and the West Bank. It is also used by Palestinians to leave the West Bank via Jordan, whist Israelis use alternative crossings to the north and south.
• The bridge is named after the British commander who defeated the Ottoman Turks in the First World War, famously capturing Beersheba and Jerusalem, the Jordan Valley and Megiddo.
• Meanwhile inside Israel mass protests have continued over the weekend, urging a deal to release the hostages. However the latest prospects appear to be bleak.
• US officials have been working on a final bridging proposal but at this point are not even sure if it is worth presenting as the gaps between Israel and Hamas remain large.  A secondary consideration is concern that if President Biden is publicly seen as failing, which could harm Vice President Harris’s campaign domestically.
• Hamas has appeared to toughen its demands, including insisting that murderers be released in exchange for wounded and chronically ill male hostages. Until now, Hamas agreed that murderers would only be released in exchange for female Israeli soldiers who are being held hostage.
• Israel had hoped that the US would apply more pressure on Hamas via Qatar, which could include expelling its leaders and closing their bank accounts.
• Also over the weekend, the IDF withdrew its troops from Jenin, having fought there for the last 10 days. The operation included several locations across the northern West Bank including Jenin, Tulkarm and Faraa.
• The objective was to target Iranian-supported Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist infrastructure. According to the IDF, 36 terrorists were killed and 46 others were arrested. The IDF also found and confiscated 24 guns and destroyed three bomb-making laboratories. Several dozen improvised explosive devices that had been planted in advance were found and destroyed by IDF Engineering Corps troops.

Looking ahead: While Israeli authorities said that the border crossing would remain closed, the Jordanian government announced that it would re-open to civilian traffic today, although trucks are not being allowed to use the crossing at this point.

• Despite the withdrawal from Jenin, the IDF have stated that they would return if they need to.
• Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara has reissued her advice to the prime minister that a state commission of inquiry (COI) is the best tool for preventing international arrest warrants from being issued against senior Israeli officials.  A state COI is viewed as preferable over a governmental commission as it would ensure complete independence from political influence.

What’s happened: For a third consecutive evening, thousands of Israelis protested across the country Tuesday night calling for an immediate deal to release the remaining hostages.

• In Tel Aviv an estimated 300,000 people gathered, with some of the protesters blocking traffic outside the IDF and MOD military headquarters.
• As in the past, the families of the hostages gave emotional speeches, whilst the crowd chanted “Everyone! Now!”
• The same chant was heard in Jerusalem and elsewhere across the country.
• In a press conference yesterday, the government heard renewed criticism from the leader of the National Unity Party MK Benny Gantz, who served as part of the inner war cabinet from 10^th October until early June.
• He accused the prime minister of “hesitating” during the process of the hostage negotiations in November last year.
• Gantz recognised that controlling the Philadelphi Corridor was important to prevent weapons smuggling, but argued for a withdrawal to secure a hostage deal. “Just as we returned to fight as we needed too after that previous framework, so too, exactly, we will return to the Philadelphi Corridor if and when necessary, just as we will return to Zeitoun and Khan Younis and every other place.”
• He added if Netanyahu is not strong enough to stand up to international pressure, “he should resign and head home.”
• Gantz continued, “The Philadelphi Corridor is an operational challenge, but it isn’t the existential threat to the State of Israel. The Iranian axis of evil is the existential threat to us. An existential threat is a strategic-security threat, and it also includes the collapse of all the components of the State of Israel’s resilience…..the story isn’t Philadelphi, but the lack of true strategic decisions.”
• His party colleague MK Gadi Eisenkot, (who like Gantz is a former IDF Chief of Staff and served in the war cabinet with him) added, “The State of Israel’s strategic situation won’t stand or fall over the Philadelphi Corridor, and the defence establishment will know how to provide a solution to that, with the understanding that the task that is of the utmost priority is getting the hostages back because, if not, that will effectively be a death sentence for the hostages, and we see how many people have paid with their lives for the delays and suspension in the past number of months.”
• In response the Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement that “Whoever does not contribute to the victory and the return of the hostages would do well not to interfere.” The statement detailed that “since Gantz and his party left the Government, Israel eliminated Hamas’s chief-of-staff and Hezbollah’s chief-of-staff, attacked the Houthis, seized the Philadelphi Corridor – the lifeline by which Hamas arms itself – and carried out a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah, which thwarted its malicious plan and destroyed thousands of rockets aimed at the Galilee.”

Context: The continued pressure on the government is compounded by international pressure and ongoing fighting in Gaza, the north and the West Bank.

• There was also continued fallout of the UK government’s decision to restrict licenses of military components they supply to Israel (read more here)
• One UK minister said to The Times that the US had found the intervention “unhelpful” as it would hamper ceasefire negotiations, and that “by trying to please all sides, they’ve ended up pissing off everyone.”
• Another minister told The Times that Lammy and Reynolds should review arms exports for other countries, such as Saudi Arabia. “Why are they picking out the one Jewish state?” the minister questioned.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu commented on X/Twitter saying, “Days after Hamas executed six Israeli hostages, the UK government suspended thirty arms licenses to Israel. This shameful decision will not change Israel’s determination to defeat Hamas, a genocidal terrorist organisation that savagely murdered 1200 people on October 7, including 14 British citizens,”
• “Hamas is still holding over 100 hostages, including 5 British citizens. Instead of standing with Israel, a fellow democracy defending itself against barbarism, Britain’s misguided decision will only embolden Hamas. Israel is pursuing a just war with just means, taking unprecedented measures to keep civilians out of harm’s way and comporting fully with international law.
• “Just as Britain’s heroic stand against the Nazis is seen today as having been vital in defending our common civilization, so too will history judge Israel’s stand against Hamas and Iran’s axis of terror. With or without British arms, Israel will win this war and secure our common future.”
• Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, Yuli Edelstein called on Britain to “reconsider the decision” and “fix it immediately.” He added that that Israel “must promote a more comprehensive and independent ability to develop and manufacture weapons.”
• Out of a total of 251 people abducted on October 7^th, 101 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, 97 of whom were captured on October 7^th and out of which at least 33 are no longer alive. The other four include two bodies of IDF soldiers and two Israeli civilians who independently entered Gaza (they are both though to be suffering from mental illness) who have been held since 2014. They are both though to be included on the list of hostages to be released in the first humanitarian stage of a deal.

Looking ahead: Further protests are expected to continue to apply pressure on the government, and the US administration is expected to present its final version of the deal.

• The government also faces internal pressure. With the Knesset expected to begin to discuss the annual state budget, ultra-Orthodox coalition partners are threatening to not support it if they don’t receive allocations to their schools. However they have also stressed that they do not intend to bring down the government over this

What’s happened: the UK has announced that it is suspending 30 arms exports licences to Israel “for use in Gaza over International Humanitarian Law concern.”

• This decision is due to take immediate effect, and impacts 30 out of 350 licences. It is the result of a review into International Humanitarian Law compliance commissioned by the Foreign Secretary on his first day in office.
• The list of suspended items includes important components including fighter aircraft, helicopters and drones, as well as items which facilitate ground targeting that would be used in Gaza.
• Parts for F35 jets will be exempted, unless they were to be directly exported to Israel.
• The Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has emphasised that the suspension will not change the UK’s steadfast support for Israel’s security, adding that the decision will be kept under review.
• Defence Secretary Healey has said that the suspension of licences “will not have a material impact on Israel’s security”, and the Foreign Secretary has confirmed that “the UK continues to support Israel’s right to self-defence in accordance with international law.”
• Export licences identified as not being for military use in Gaza were identified and confirmed as not requiring suspension.
• Israeli Foreign Minister Katz, said the British decision “sends a very problematic message to the Hamas terrorist organisation and its backers in Iran” adding that Israel was disappointed “by the British government’s recent series of decisions, including the latest decision regarding security exports to Israel…” Katz added that “Israel is a law-abiding state that operates in accordance with international law and has an independent and respected judicial system – we expect friendly countries, such as the UK, to recognise this all year-round, especially just days after Hamas terrorists executed six Israeli hostages, during intense negotiations for the release of the hostages and for a ceasefire, and in light of the recent threats by the Iranian regime to attack the State of Israel.”

Context: While the UK is considered Israel’s second-staunchest western ally after the US, UK arms imports do not represent a substantial part of Israel’s defence procurement.

• In addition to its own sophisticated domestic production, Israel is a substantial importer of arms, at least 70 percent of which come from the USA. Imports from France, Germany, and Italy also constitute a larger percentage than those from the UK.
• UK arms exports to Israel have been quantified as sitting at only 0.9% of the country’s total.
• Conversely, Israel supplies the UK 2.87% of its arms imports, with sales significantly increasing since 2006 with the escalation of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
• UK-Israel defence trade is of mutual benefit, and the relative importance of the trade relationship is arguably greater to the UK military than to the IDF.
• Out of those goods licensed by the UK for export to Israel, a large proportion are for dual use goods for non-military use, or for goods for incorporation in Israel before onward export to a third country.
• Within the military goods, the majority are for components rather than complete systems or sub-systems. Many UK licences for military equipment are for components for incorporation into US-manufactured platforms which were then re-exported to Israel.
• Significant Israeli arms imports include the Hermes-450 UAV, Watchkeeper UAV, and M-113 Spike-NLOS (an Israeli fourth-generation fire-and-forget anti-tank guided missile and anti-personnel missile with a tandem-charge HEAT warhead).
• Elbit Systems UK has won 25 public contracts, totalling more than £355m, since 2012, according to data supplied by Tussell, which provides details on UK government contracts. Elbit also runs a joint venture called Affinity Training with US company KBR. Affinity has a contract with the UK MoD worth £500m over 18 years to train UK pilots at RAF Cranwell in Lincolnshire.
• There is no indication that the UK has ceased, or made any attempt to cease its weapons purchases from Israel during this period.
• For further background on UK – Israel arms trade read our previous research paper here.

Looking ahead: Despite this decision, it is hoped that bilateral Anglo-Israel relations will remain strong and not be significantly impacted.

• While Iran is yet to launch its promised retaliation against Israel for Ismail Haniyeh’s July assassination in Tehran, there is no indication that the UK would not intervene to protect Israeli airspace as it did in April.
• The UK has stressed its continued support for Israel’s security, which the FCDO has described as “steadfast” in its statement on the matter.

What happened: On Saturday night, the IDF recovered the bodies of six murdered hostages who had been held by Hamas since 7^th October from a tunnel under Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.

• The six whose bodies were recovered were Hersh Goldberg-Polin (23), Eden Yerushalmi (24), Ori Danino (25), Almog Sarusi (27), Alex Lobanov (33), and Carmel Gat (40).
• According to autopsies, they were killed 48-72 hours before their bodies were recovered. The autopsies also indicated multiple shots at close range as the cause of death indicating they were executed.
• Channel 12 News has reported that security officials have suggested they were executed as Hamas feared that Farhan al-Qadi who was rescued days earlier would divulge details about where the other captives were being held.
• US President Joe Biden said he was “devastated and outraged” to learn of the captives’ deaths, while praising Hersh Goldberg-Polin’s parents who had recently spoken at the Democratic National Convention.
• Prime Minister Starmer wrote on Twitter/X that he was: “completely shocked at the horrific and senseless killing of six hostages in Gaza by Hamas” adding that “Hamas must release all the hostages now, and a ceasefire deal must be agreed by all sides immediately to end the suffering.”
• Foreign Secretary Lammy, took a similar line, writing that the “UK condemns Hamas’ appalling murder of six innocent hostages in Gaza in the strongest terms” The. In addition to offering his deepest condolences to those grieving, Lammy added that “Hamas must release all the hostages immediately, and all sides must accept the deal on the table to end this war.”
• Hamas politburo member, Izzat al-Rishq, blamed the hostages’ deaths on Israel and the US, because Israel had not agreed to a ceasefire deal. He made no comments about their cause of death and did not respond to Israeli claims they had been executed.
• The Hostages and Missing Families Forum have responded angrily, saying those hostages would still be alive if the government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu had reached a deal with Hamas for their release.
• An estimated 500,000 people attended demonstrations, at 40 locations across the country organised by the Forum, with 300,000 in Tel Aviv alone. At one point, protestors blocked the Ayalon Highway.
• Yesterday, the Histadrut Labor Federation (Israel’s main trade union) announced a general strike in response to the government’s failure to secure the release of the hostages. Histadrut chief, Arnon Bar-David, said that “a deal is more important than anything else”.
• The general strike began at 6.00 this morning and is also being supported by the Israel Business Forum, which represents most private-sector workers from 200 of the country’s largest companies.
• Ben Gurion airport has partially joined the strike, with flights not taking off for most of the morning.
• In the West Bank, three Israeli police officers were killed in a shooting attack near the Palestinian city of Tarqumiyah yesterday. The gunman was later identified as a former member of the Palestinian Authority’s Presidential Guard, and was killed by Israeli special forces in Hebron later that day.
• In the north, two Israeli soldiers and one civilian were injured when Hezbollah fired an anti-tank missile at the community of Kfar Yuval. 30 rockets were also launched towards Misgav Am and Matat, but these did not cause any injuries. The IDF has responded with airstrikes on Hezbollah rocket launchers in Ayta ash-Shab and Bint Jbeil, as well as buildings used by the terror group in Beit Lif, Taybeh and Odaisseh.

Context: 101 hostages remain in captivity for 332 days. The fact that these six hostages survived for so long, only to have been killed in recent days has shaken Israeli society.

• Compounding the suffering is the fact that three or four of the dead were due to be released in the first (humanitarian) phase of a hostage-prisoner exchange – Goldberg-Polin due to his amputated arm and the female prisoners Yerushalmi and Gat (Lobanov as a dual Israeli-Russian citizen was also rumoured to be released).
• The deaths come very soon after a reported shouting exchange between PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant in a cabinet meeting late last week, in which Gallant warned that the hostages’ lives were in danger.
• Against the backdrop of failures to secure a ceasefire deal with Hamas, Prime Minister Netanyahu has received significant criticism for failures to compromise on the Philadelphi Corridor’s status, which he is accused of prioritising retaining control over rather than securing the release of hostages.
• Netanyahu has insisted that remaining in the Philadelphi Corridor is essential for Israel to prevent Hamas from resuming weapons smuggling across the border, and gradually rebuilding its strength.
• Netanyahu’s position is reportedly at odds with the security establishment’s leadership from the IDF, Mossad, and Shin Bet who believe that technical solutions and compromises can be implemented leading to a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
• These demonstrations are the largest Israel has experienced since 7^th October.
• While the Israeli government had previously maintained that military pressure was the best means to move towards the release of hostages, the murder of six hostages as a seeming direct result of a rescue operation calls this orthodoxy into question.
• There is speculation as to whether the deaths were a result of a direct order to execute hostages if the IDF were to approach, or whether it was a local decision taken by the guards.
• The general strike is considered a type of ‘economic doomsday weapon’. The last time such a strike was called was in March 2023, after Netanyahu fired Gallant over disagreements over the pace of the government’s electoral reform policy.
• The cost of a general strike on the Israeli economy is estimated to be in excess of £150m a day.

Looking ahead: It is unclear how long the general strike which began today will last. The Histadrut had previously resisted calls to initiate such action, and hostage families hope the strike will help to mobilise mass protests and press Prime Minister Netanyahu to compromise on the Philadelphi Corridor.

• The US is reportedly considering submitting a new proposal to Israel and Hamas. This would likely be a final offer calling for a ceasefire and the hostages’ release. President Biden and Vice President Harris are due to meet today with the National Security Council staff to discuss ways to advance a deal.

What happened: On Tuesday morning IDF troops rescued Farhan al-Qadi alive after more than 10 months in Hamas captivity.

• Al-Qadi, a 52 year old Bedouin and father of 11 children from Rahat, was abducted from Kibbutz Magen where he worked as a guard on October 7^th.
• He was rescued from a tunnel in the southern Gaza strip. The precise details of the rescue have not been revealed due to ongoing operational considerations.
• Qadi is quoted as telling Israeli media, “The soldiers called out to me before entering; that’s when the terrorists fled… I feared the tunnel had been booby-trapped with explosive devices so I walked very slowly.”
• As he exited the tunnel, the first person to speak to him was Col. Ahsan Daksa, a Druze commander who speaks Arabic. Daksa was able to ascertain crucial initial details from inside the tunnel.
• He was then flown to Soroka Hospital in Beer Sheva where he was reunited with his family. Although malnourished, Qadi was in overall stable condition.
• His release was greeted by widespread celebrations. He received phone calls from both President Herzog and the prime minister.
• Farhan told the president, “I am grateful to the State of Israel, to the army, who came. People are suffering there. Do everything you can to bring people home. Work 24 hours, don’t sleep until they return. People are really suffering, you can’t imagine. Suddenly, I heard someone speaking Hebrew outside the door, I couldn’t believe it, I couldn’t believe it. I thank you very much. This is thanks to our army, they are doing a sacred duty, risking their lives. Thank you very much, Mr. President.”

Context: In parallel to military operations, diplomatic efforts continue to reach a hostage deal.

• Although there has been no breakthrough in negotiations, there is continued hope that US, Egyptian and Qatari mediation can produce another deal that will see the release of the remaining hostages in exchange for convicted Palestinian terrorists in Israeli prisons and a ceasefire.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu remains committed to maintaining a presence along the Gaza- Egyptian border to prevent Hamas smuggling and rearming and the Netzarim Corridor that bisects the Strip, preventing Hamas fighters from returning north.
• According to Israeli media reports US mediators are instead switching the focus of negotiations onto other issues that they believe will be easier to reach understandings. These include:
  • The ratio of hostages in return for prisoners.
  • How many vetoes the Israeli side will have over releasing ‘heavyweight’ arch terrorists.
  • Of the Palestinian prisoners to be released, which ones (deemed an ongoing security risk) will be deported.
• This latest release still leaves 108 hostages in Gaza, of whom 104 have been in captivity for 327 days.
• 251 people were kidnapped on October 7th 2023 whilst four other hostages have been held in Gaza for a decade: two Israeli civilians and the bodies of two soldiers, from three separate incidents in 2014. Israel will seek to have the two living civilian hostages, Hisham al-Sayed and Avera Mengistu, included in any deal.
• According to official data, 34 of the hostages are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas. However it is feared this figure could be higher.
• 105 Israelis and foreign nationals were released as part of a deal in November 2023.
• Eight hostages have been rescued alive, whist the bodies of 30 murdered hostages have been located by IDF forces and returned to Israel. Three abductees were mistakenly shot by IDF forces and their bodies were returned to Israel.
• This morning the IDF announced the death of another IDF soldier, Staff Sgt. Amit Friedman, a 19-year-old resident of Or Yehuda, who was killed in action in the southern Gaza Strip yesterday.
• The takes the total IDF fatalities to 703, of whom 351 were killed on October 7^th itself, with 352 having fallen since the start of the ground operation.

The north: Despite the successful IDF operation in Lebanon on Sunday Hezbollah has continued with low level attritional attacks on northern Israel.

• Once more sirens were heard across northern Israel. A drone infiltrated from Lebanon injuring a soldier in the area of Beit Hillel.
• In response, the IDF attacked launch sites in the areas of Cheebaa and Yarine in southern Lebanon.
• The operation on Sunday that targeted Hezbollah rocket launchers prior to an imminent attack is the latest example of the rehabilitation of Israeli military intelligence (that failed so badly on October 7th) to pre-empt Hezbollah plans and locate launchers, many of which were hidden underground.
• It involved complex coordination between intelligence and operations, sharing real time updates with 100 air force jets striking over 40 sites simultaneously.
• As such, it has been viewed as a tactical success, but not significant enough to change the strategic picture.
• There is further mounting pressure and discord from local community leaders towards the government after almost 11 months and over 6,600 rocket attacks.

International support: The operation on Sunday is also thought to be the latest example of US – Israeli intelligence cooperation.

• Another example of US assistance was seen earlier this week when the Israeli Ministry of Defence declared the arrival of the 500th aircraft delivering military aid since the war begun.  According to the announcement, “over 50,000 tonnes of military equipment have been delivered to Israel via 500 flights and 107 sea shipments. The equipment procured and transported includes armoured vehicles, munitions, ammunition, personal protection gear, and medical equipment.”
• In parallel Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Brown visited Israel on Monday. He met Defence Minister Gallant, where they discussed both the northern and southern fronts as well as the Iranian threat.
• Similarly, earlier this week Minister Gallant also spoke on the phone with British Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey.  According to Gallant’s office they discussed, “the important cooperation with Britain in ensuring Israel’s security.” They also discussed “the UK’s important role in maintaining regional stability, and in this regard emphasised the importance of preventing regional escalation.”
• “Minister Gallant expressed his appreciation to Secretary Healey for the excellent defence cooperation between the respective nations, and for his personal leadership and commitment to Israel’s security.”

West Bank: The IDF has launched a significant counterterrorism operation in various locations in the northern West Bank.

• The operation is focused on Jenin and Tulkarm and includes ground troops as well as drones and helicopter gunships.
• Palestinian sources report that 11 Palestinians have been killed, in a combination of airstrikes and in exchanges of fire.
• The IDF announced that it had “eliminated five terrorists operating within an operations room in the area of Nur Shams”. These include: Mohanad Qarawi and Muhammad Yussef; Adnan Jaber, who manufactured explosives; and Jibril Jasan Ismail Jibril, who was involved in terror activity in the Tulkarm and Qalqilya areas and who was released as part of the agreement in November 2023.

Looking ahead: A technical team of Israeli security service professionals is relocating from Egypt to Doha in order to continue to work on the details of a hostage deal before the lead negotiators return.

• There is hope that al-Qadi can provide valuable information that could help rescue other hostages.
• While allied forces remain in the region, Israel remains vigilant over a threatened attack by Iran

What happened? Shortly before 5am this morning, based on intelligence that Hezbollah was about to launch missiles against central Israel, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out strikes against Hezbollah launchers.

• The IDF announced that about 100 fighter jets struck targets in various locations in southern Lebanon. Strikes were reported in the areas of Kunin, Beit Yahoun, Haddatha, Rachaf and A-Tiri among others.
• The IDF Spokesperson’s Office announced that “Since 5:00, we have taken out thousands of launchers that were aimed at the north in a coordinated attack by roughly 100 IAF planes. We were prepared for a large Hezbollah strike on the north, and we also attacked Hezbollah drones accordingly.”
• Quoting Western intelligence, the New York Times reported that Israel’s preemptive strike was aimed at launchers that planned to fire rockets at Tel Aviv at 5 am. Israel believes that the group planned to fire a small number of precision-guided missiles at the area of Glilot, which is where Mossad headquarters and IDF Unit 8200 (Israeli Intelligence Corps unit that focus on Signals Intelligence) are located.
• At approximately 5.30, Hezbollah began an assault on Israel. The group announced that it struck “deep in Zionist territory and towards a specific Israeli military target that will be announced later” detailing that it fired drones at a high-quality military target deep inside Israel amid simultaneous rocket fire on IDF bases and Iron Dome batteries in northern Israel.
• Hezbollah claims to have launched more than 320 rockets including at areas such as Safed and Acre, and at 11 military bases.
• According to the group, it has now “completed the first phase of the response to the [Shukr] assassination”
• The IDF reported most of the rockets Hezbollah launched were intercepted. One person in Acre is currently known to have been wounded by shrapnel and is listed as being in light condition.
• US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Gallant ” to discuss Israel’s defense against Lebanese Hezbollah attacks,” according to the Pentagon, “and reaffirmed the US’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s defense against any attacks by Iran and its regional partners and proxies.”
• After being temporarily closed, Ben Gurion airport reopened at 7am.
• The Home Front Command has imposed restrictions on gatherings stretching from central Israel to the north. Up to 30 people can gather in an open area, and up to 300 in buildings. Beaches will be closed to the public.
• Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz this morning said: “Israel is confronting the axis of evil led by Iran, which has the explicit aim of destroying Israel. We do not seek a full-scale war – but we will do whatever it takes to protect our citizens.”
• Foreign Minister Katz addressed dozens of foreign ministers around the world this morning, “calling on them to support Israel”.

Context: Since Hamas’ assault against Israel on October 7 Hezbollah – an integral part of Iran’s Axis of Resistance against Israel – has fired over 6600 missiles at Israel.

• Over the past week, the group has escalated its strikes towards civilian communities on the Golan Heights, which have not been evacuated.
• On the 20^th August, Hezbollah fired 115 rockets and drones into Israel while a drone attack on the 19^th killed one Israeli soldier.
• Also last week, in the face of troop shortages and in preparation for potential escalation in the North, the IDF has called up approximately 15000 previously exempted and demobilised reservists.
• The current barrage is in response to Israel’s killing of senior Hezbollah operative Fuad Shukr (for more information see BICOM’s recent report here).
• Defence Minister Gallant has been in almost daily contact with his US partner Defence Secretary Austin.  This is part of their close coordination which also includes substantial US troops deployed to the region as part of their force projection.

Looking ahead: It remains to be seen whether a second round of missiles and drones will be launched by Hezbollah, and if so, the extent to which it will succeed in striking central Israel as reportedly planned.

• Such a strike could lead to wider escalation including Israeli strikes at Hezbollah targets in Beirut.
• Hezbollah maintains that Israel failed in its pre-emptive strike, and that it succeeded in hitting a significant Israeli site. Hassan Nasrallah is due to deliver a speech in which he will allegedly ‘refute Israel’s claim’ that it disrupted the group’s attacks.
• US Air Force General Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who began an unannounced visit to the Middle East Saturday is currently in Jordan and will travel to Egypt and Israel in the coming days for military discussions