Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated March 20, 2024

March 20th – Day 166 of the war: News in Brief

1. The UK’s largest delivery of aid to Gaza since the start of the war has crossed the border and begun to be distributed. More than 2,000 tonnes of food aid is being distributed by the World Food Programme, adding to the 150 tonnes of UK funded relief items including blankets and tents, which arrived on Wednesday. According to COGAT, 248 trucks carrying Humanitarian Aid were yesterday inspected by Israel and transferred to Gaza. However, of those 248, only 126 Humanitarian Aid trucks were distributed by UN aid organisations, leaving 122 waiting to be distributed. Around two thirds of these trucks carry food, with the rest carrying medical equipment, water and shelter equipment. Israel has placed no limit on the amount of food that can enter the Gaza Strip with 29 of the food aid trucks entering yesterday making their way up to northern Gaza. Kamal Adwan Hospital was also restocked with medical supplies and Jabalia Health Centre was refuelled.

2. The IDF is continuing their targeted operation within the compound of the Shifa hospital in Gaza City. According to the IDF, “Over the past day, the troops have eliminated terrorists and located weapons in the hospital area, while preventing harm to civilians, patients, medical teams, and medical equipment.” According to the army they have killed, “approximately 90 terrorists in the area, the IDF and ISA have questioned over 300 suspects at the compound, and an additional 160 suspects have been transferred to Israeli territory for further questioning.” Among those arrested were “prominent terrorists” from Hamas who the IDF say were involved in directing terror in the West Bank, well as terrorists from the “Rocket Unit” of Palestinian Islamic Jihad. During the fighting a 51-year-old IDF reservist, Sebastian Haion, was killed in action. He is the 251^st IDF fatality since the ground incursion begun. In parallel, the IDF continues to operate against Hamas operatives and infrastructure across the Gaza Strip, including in Khan Yunis and central areas. In addition, Palestinian sources are reporting on an air strike in Rafah. Also yesterday, a rocket was launched from northern Gaza toward the city of Sderot, but fell inside the Gaza Strip. In response, an Israeli aircraft struck an operational Hamas tunnel shaft in the area of the launch.

3. In hostage negotiation talks in Doha, Israeli officials have received Hamas’s latest demands. These include: 40 hostages to be released in exchange for 950 prisoners, to be chosen by Hamas; 50 prisoners, including 30 “heavyweight” prisoners, to be chosen by Hamas and to be released in exchange for every female soldier being held captive (coming to a total of 250 prisoners for the female soldiers); a full civilian return of northern Gaza. Israeli news reports suggest that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar has shifted the priority focus from the release of “heavyweight” prisoners to the return of northern Gazans to their former places of residence. With Israel reluctant to agree to a full-scale return, if true this could prove a significant stumbling block in negotiations. Delays are expected, caused by the relay of information from Doha to Hamas’s Gazan leadership. One Israeli official told Channel 12: “Even if there is a foreign-based branch of Hamas, they have no mandate at all to make decisions. Every comma, every period takes between 24-36 hours. This is going to be a complicated process.” The Israeli delegation is said to have been given a limited remit by the political echelon, as a tactic to test the seriousness of Hamas’s commitment to a deal. Meanwhile in Tel Aviv, hostage families joined protesters demanding “No return from Qatar without a deal” in blocking northbound traffic on the Ayalon Highway this morning.

4. Two senior Israeli delegations will visit the US next week. The Government announced that one delegation, consisting of Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and National Security Council Director Hanegbi will conduct talks on a potential operation in Rafah, while Defence Minister Gallant will visit his US counterpart Lloyd Austin. The US will present Israel a plan designed to avoid a major operation in Rafah. The US plan would allow for targeted operations against Hamas, while focussing on stopping the supply of weapons smuggled to Hamas through the Egypt to Gaza Philadelphi Corridor. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office released a statement saying that in discussions with the US, “the prime minister stressed that he is determined to operate in Rafah in order to eliminate for good the remaining Hamas battalions while offering humanitarian solutions to the civilian population.”

5. Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that “there are elements in Israel who are cooperating with the Americans to prevent entry to Rafah.” Netanyahu also claimed that an all-for-all hostage deal, which would see all remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza freed in exchange for the full list of Palestinian security prisoners whose release is demanded by Hamas, was impossible. Referring to the current negotiation, whose terms would see 40 Israeli hostages released in return for a limited release of Palestinians, he said “If we don’t get the 40 hostages now, we’re not going to get any hostages at all.” Netanyahu came under fire in the meeting for his apparent agreement to a pilot programme allowing Palestinian workers from the West Bank back to work in Israel – a move supported by the military and intelligence establishments. The prime minister also appeared to criticise Israel’s public diplomacy apparatus, saying “the problem is that there aren’t any people. You are surrounded by people who don’t know how to string two words together in English.” In related news, Israel’s Channel 12 reported last night that Eylon Levy, the British-born spokesman who has fronted much of Israel’s English-language response since October 7^th, has been suspended. The channel claims Levy has been sidelined following a complaint from the UK over a tweet Levy sent in reply to British Foreign Secretary Cameron over the question of aid. Cameron’s tweet said “We continue to urge Israel to allow more trucks into Gaza as the fastest way to get aid to those who need it,” to which Levy responded, in a tweet now deleted, “I hope you are also aware there are NO limits on the entry of food, water, medicine, or shelter equipment into Gaza, and in fact the crossings have EXCESS capacity… Test us. Send another 100 trucks a day to Kerem Shalom and we’ll get them in.”

6. A Shin Bet agent remains in serious condition following a terrorist attack near the Gush Etzion settlement Bloc in the West Bank yesterday. Ziad Hamran, 30, from the northern West Bank city of Jenin, opened fire on the agent and his colleague while they were conducting routine work. The second Shin Bet agent was lightly injured, while both agents managed to return fire and kill their attacker. It remains unclear whether Hamran was a source the agents were preparing to meet, or whether he followed their source to a meeting. While the major conflagration desired by Hamas in the West Bank in the aftermath of October 7^th has not transpired, Israel has conducted nightly raids targeting known groups and individuals. Palestinian sources say over 400 have been killed in the West Bank since the start of the war in Gaza, most in clashes with Israeli forces.

7. Once again, throughout yesterday there were numerous rockets launched from Lebanon into several areas in Israeli territory. In one incident, two soldiers were lightly and moderately wounded from rocket fire toward Kibbutz Manara. The soldiers were evacuated to hospital to receive medical treatment. In addition, the IDF said that a suspected aerial target crossed from Lebanon into Israel in the area of Yiftach and was successfully intercepted. In a familiar pattern, the IDF returned fire to the source of the launches as well as attacking Hezbollah infrastructure in areas close to the border. In a separate incident, an IDF soldier identified a Hezbollah terrorist operating out of an observation post belonging to Hezbollah in the area of Marwahin. Following this, IDF fighter jets struck the post. According to Arab media reports, five senior commanders of pro-Iranian militias in Syria, including a Hezbollah leader, were killed in an airstrike targeting the town of Mayadin in the eastern Deir ez-Zor area.

8. Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly announced last night that Ottawa would suspend arms exports to Israel. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in response: “I am sorry that the government of Canada is taking this step that undermines Israel’s right to self-defence in the face of Hamas murderers who carried out terrible crimes against humanity and against innocent Israelis, including the elderly, women and children. History will judge the current acts of Canada harshly.” As part of the same process, the Canadian Parliament last night passed a non-binding motion calling on the international community to work towards a two-state solution, after the initial wording which would have supported unilateral recognition of the Palestinian state was dropped. Other wording was also inserted to label Hamas as a terrorist organisation, affirm that Israel has a right to defend itself, and demand that Hamas release all hostages and lay down its arms.

9. The IDF has acknowledged that a cruise missile fired on Sunday penetrated Israel’s anti-missile air defence system. The missile, presumably launched by the Houthis in Yemen, entered Israeli air space from the Red Sea in the south and fell in open terrain north of the city of Eilat. The IDF further noted, the “target was monitored by IAF troops throughout the incident. No injuries were reported and no damage was caused,” but that the incident is under review. So far the Houthis have launched over 50 attacks directed towards Israel. Most have been intercepted by Israel’s Arrow defence systems, others by US naval vessels and even by Saudi Arabia when they crossed their airspace.

March 19, 2024

March 19th – Day 165 of the war: News in Brief

1. IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari confirmed last night that the military operation in the Shifa hospital in Gaza City was ongoing, sharing more details. He reiterated the necessity of the raid as, “Hamas terrorists, including field commanders, fled to the area of the hospital, are hiding there and turned it into a command centre from which they dispatched and managed terrorist operations and managed combat. We have been tracking this compound for some time and waited for the most appropriate time to act.” He added details that “forces entered the compound, surprised terrorists barricaded themselves in several buildings in the hospital and opened fire from within the hospital towards our forces, from rooms within the building and from various parts of the compound, there were a number of encounters with terrorists in the area. Our forces returned fire, and exchanges of fire developed on site.” Hagari also noted during the fighting an IDF soldier, Matan Vinogradov, fell in combat. Hagari added, “We have arrested more than 200 terrorist suspects. We have killed more than 20 terrorists inside the hospital area, first among them the terrorist Faiq al-Mabhouh, who served as the director of the Special Operations Directorate in Hamas’s domestic security organisation.” The IDF is keen to highlight the importance of this tactical raid, as it prove the IDF’s capacity to return to operate in areas that Hamas sought to re-establish itself. The IDF is insistent that they will not allow Hamas to reconstitute its forces in the northern Gaza Strip and as ever vehemently objects to Hamas’ continued exploitation of hospitals which includes patients, medical personnel and the civilian population as human shields. Faiq al-Mabhouh, was the brother of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, the senior Hamas operative who was assassinated in Dubai in 2010.2. The Israeli negotiation team arrived in the Qatari capital yesterday, in an effort to secure the release of more hostages. Their mandate was approved by the War Cabinet and Security Cabinet, to provide for a 42-day ceasefire and a Palestinian security prisoner release in exchange for the release of 40 Israeli hostages. Mossad Director Barnea was personally in discussion with Qatari and Egyptian mediators overnight before returning to Israel this morning. From there, he will oversee work teams from the Mossad, the Shin Bet, the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, and Hostage Coordinator Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon’s team. Egyptian media is reporting that senior Egyptian intelligence officials persuaded Hamas not to halt the talks in response to the IDF operation in Shifa Hospital yesterday. On the release of Palestinian security prisoners, Hamas demands are not thought to be prohibitive, with a possible compromise found on the basis of the Gilad Shalit model, which granted Israel the right to veto the release of any individual “heavyweight” prisoners. The release of unrepentant murderers is deeply painful on the Israeli side, but it is also widely understood that no deal can be secured without such releases. Talks are likely to be protracted, with the Hamas delegation likely to defer to Gazan leader Sinwar, still in hiding deep inside the Gaza Strip, and with each relay of messages expected to take a day and a half. Another thorny issue is likely to be Hamas’s demand that Gazans be allowed to return to the north of the Strip, something Israel opposes.3. Amid widespread reports of their increasingly strained working relationship, President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on the phone for 45 minutes yesterday. According to the White House, Biden affirmed the need to defeat Hamas in Gaza while also protecting the civilian population and facilitating the safe and unhindered delivery of aid throughout Gaza, with special emphasis on the north. The two also agreed to convene work teams from both nations in Washington to produce “alternative approaches for an operation in Rafah.” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan later added that the White House would look to present a more pinpoint alternative to a full incursion into the city, Hamas’s last Gazan stronghold. “A major ground operation there would be a mistake. It would lead to more innocent civilian deaths, worsen the already dire humanitarian crisis, deepen the anarchy in Gaza and further isolate Israel internationally,” Sullivan said. Sullivan also confirmed the death in an Israeli strike last week of Hamas’s third in command in Gaza, Marwan Issa. Sullivan said, “the rest of the top leaders are in hiding, likely deep in the Hamas tunnel network and justice will come for them too. We are helping them to ensure that.” Meanwhile, on a visit to the Philippines, US Secretary of State Blinken again urged that more aid be sent to Gaza, claiming that the entire population was experiencing “severe levels of acute food insecurity.”4. Throughout Monday, Hezbollah rocket attacks have continued across Israel’s northern border from Lebanon. Several launches were identified crossing from Lebanon toward Yiftach, Har Dov, and Manara. As usual, the IDF returned fire to the sources of the attacks. Further, according to the IDF, “an aircraft identified terrorists entering a Hezbollah military compound in the area of Meiss El Jabal. A short while after the identification of the terrorists, IDF fighter jets struck the military compound. In addition, IDF fighter jets struck a Hezbollah military compound in the area of al-Adisa.” Hezbollah has fired over 2,600 rockets into northern Israel since the war begun.5. Sources in Syria claim that overnight Israel attacked military targets in the Damascus. This would be the second strike in the last two days and is thought to have targeted Hezbollah military assets. According to the Syrian military, their air defences intercepted “some of the missiles.” Ynet quotes a Saudi report from a security source saying, “continued arms smuggling from Syria will increase Israeli strikes on the military stores and the continued Syrian support of Hezbollah and Iran, will prevent it from achieving stability and the Syrian people will pay the price.” Two days ago there were reports of an attack attributed to Israel on Hezbollah’s ammunition depots in the Yabrod area, north of Damascus.6. Israeli Ambassador to the UK Tzipi Hotovely, alongside British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters, yesterday announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the two countries. “As two of the world’s leading countries in the fields of science, research, innovation and technology,” she said, “this agreement strengthens our cooperation in: Sustainability and protecting the environment; health and medicine; Artificial Intelligence; space exploration and education. The UK and Israel are working together to enhance our scientific collaboration.” Meanwhile, UK Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden yesterday affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas, but called for an “immediate ceasefire to allow… aid in, and crucially, the hostages to come out.” UK Foreign Secretary Cameron met with hostage families yesterday and said “their ordeals are unimaginable. Hamas could end this conflict today. They must release all hostages immediately.”

March 18, 2024

IDF operating against Hamas in Shifa Hospital

What’s happening: The IDF is currently conducting a targeted operation against Hamas in the area of the Shifa hospital in Gaza City.

The operation began early this morning, just a few hours before the Israeli delegation to Qatar was scheduled to depart to renew negotiations for the release of the hostages.
As troops surrounded the hospital, they were shot at and engaged in exchange of fire. Whilst the IDF has called on civilians to evacuate, more than 80 suspects have been detained so far. Several terrorists have been killed in firefights.
IDF Spokesperson Hagari confirmed that “troops operating in the area were trained for the mission and were briefed in advance about the importance of refraining from harming civilians, patients, medical teams and medical equipment,”
The IDF also released a recording of a phone conversation between IDF Col. Moshe Tetro, head of the Coordination and Liaison Administration, and Dr. Youssef Abu Rish, the Director General of the Health Ministry in the Gaza Strip.
- Col. Tetro said, “We see that the Hamas terrorist organisation has continued its military operations from inside hospitals. We are prepared to provide any humanitarian assistance needed. Our request is simple: the immediate halt to all terrorist activity in hospitals, as we saw in the hospital in Khan Yunis.”
- Dr. Abu Rish replied, “We received your message and I assure you that we are on the same page. Hospitals need to be a place for providing service and no one must harm the patients or the provision of medical treatment in these hospitals.”
Hagari added, “even in the course of the operation, the IDF has guaranteed the hospital’s ongoing operation, and it brought Arabic-speakers to the scene so that they might engage in dialogue with patients in the hospital. IDF doctors are prepared to help anyone who needs that. The patients and the medical teams need not leave the hospital, but there is passage for the departure of civilians from the area.”
His office added, “the IDF will continue to operate in compliance with international law and against the Hamas terrorist organisation, which is operating out of hospitals and civilian infrastructure in a systematic and cynical pattern of behaviour, without making any distinction between the civilian population and the organisation’s terrorists.”

Context: This operation was planned several days ago after intelligence showed Hamas operatives, including senior terrorists, had regrouped inside the hospital and were using it as a base to launch attacks.

In addition, the IDF continues to face multi-theatre operations:
- Across other areas of the Gaza Strip.
- In Lebanon, where IDF planes bombed Hezbollah targets following continues fire on Israel’s northern border over the weekend.
- Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for launching drones towards the Golan Heights.
- Overnight there was also a suspected infiltration by Yemeni drone. According to the IDF “a suspicious aerial target crossed into Israeli territory from the Red Sea and fell into an open area north of the city of Eilat. The target was monitored by IAF forces. No damage was caused and no injuries were reported.”

In parallel, both the War Cabinet and the wider Security Cabinet met last night to formulate the scope for the Israeli hostage negotiators led by Mossad Director David Barnea.
Whilst no details have been released, the speculated positions include:
- Israel is not expected to accept Hamas’s demand that the IDF withdraw from the corridor south of Gaza City, which prevents Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip.
- Israel also objects to Hamas’s demand that the second phase of the deal include a permanent ceasefire.
- The key negotiations will be over the ratio of released hostages in exchange for Palestinian security prisoners, and how may and which “heavyweight” (mass murderer) terrorists will be released. Speculation suggests 40 civilian hostages for 950 prisoners.
- However, Hamas are thought to be demanding 50 prisoners in exchange for every female soldier being held hostage, including 30 “heavyweight” prisoners
The negotiations could be carried out in a similar fashion to the Shalit talks, with Israeli and Hamas delegations in sperate quarters in the same hotel, with the Egyptian an Qatari envoys shuttling in-between.
Also in parallel, aid continues to enter Gaza: 61 UN trucks, including 19 into northern Gaza.
Also, a ship carrying 200 tons of aid from the World Central Kitchen organisation arrived on Friday. 12 WCK trucks distributed the aid to the northern Gaza Strip.
Also, the weekend saw the first time a Fatah statement criticised Hamas asking, “did Hamas consult the Palestinian leadership or any Palestinian national party when it made its decision to carry out the ‘adventure’ of last October 7, which led to a catastrophe more horrific than the Nakba of 1948?… [Hamas] have no right to dictate national priorities.”

Looking ahead: Israel faces growing calls from the international community to end the fighting. In response Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Cabinet yesterday, “In the international community, there are those who are trying to stop the war now, before all of its goals have been achieved… Let it be clear: If we stop the war now, before all of its goals are achieved, this means that Israel will have lost the war, and this we will not allow. Therefore, we cannot, and will not, succumb to this pressure.”

He also reiterated the need to operate in Rafah. Netanyahu said, “we have approved the operational plans for action in Rafah, including advancing the steps to evacuate the civilian population from the combat zones. This is an essential stage ahead of the military action… We will operate in Rafah. This will take several weeks, and it will happen.”

March 14, 2024

March 14th – Day 160 of the war: News in Brief

1. The first week of Ramadan is so far proceeding relatively calmly. An estimated 40,000 people prayed peacefully in Jerusalem last night, with the flashpoint Temple Mount seeing no significant unrest so far. On Tuesday, the IDF’s military liaison to the Palestinians confirmed that only men over 55, women over 50, and children under 10 from the West Bank would be allowed to visit Al-Aqsa Mosque for the first Friday prayers of Ramadan tomorrow. Thousands of police officers will deploy to the Old City. With Hamas looking to incite violence during the holy month, two soldiers were stabbed in an attack at a checkpoint south of Jerusalem yesterday morning. Israeli security forces shot the attacker and the two troops were moderately wounded. Police Commissioner Yaakov Shabtai said, “The closer we get to the [first] Friday of Ramadan, everyone is trying to stir things up in this area; we are currently on our highest alert.”

2. COGAT confirmed that aid for Gaza is arriving by land, air, and now by sea. IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said yesterday that Israel was trying “to flood” Gaza with Humanitarian Aid. “We are learning and improving and doing different changes so as not to create a routine but to create a diversity of ways that we can enter,” he said. In a statement yesterday, the IDF confirmed it was cooperating with the first ship carrying aid by sea, operated by the World Central Kitchen and funded by the UAE. Israel also cooperated with the World Food Organisation sending six aid trucks into the northern Strip yesterday. Israeli media reported the trucks were looted by locals and did not reach their destination. About 100 US troops departed a Virginia base on Tuesday, carrying equipment needed to build the temporary pier for the distribution of aid in Gaza. When operational in between 5-7 weeks, the pier will bring in up to two million meals a day. US Secretary of State Blinken said “I want to emphasise it is a complement to, not a substitute for, other ways of getting humanitarian assistance into Gaza, and in particular overland routes remain the most critical way to get assistance in and then to people who need it, but this will help close the gap.”

3. The UK announced yesterday that it had made a “major humanitarian push” in Gaza, sending around 150 tonnes of aid, including 840 family tents, 13,440 blankets, almost 3,000 shelter kits, and shelter-fixing kits, 6,000 sleeping mats and more than 3,000 dignity kits to support women and girls. A UK field hospital will also arrive this week, to be staffed by both local health workers and international medics, while Foreign Secretary Cameron announced a further £10 million in aid funding, bringing UK support to more than £100 million this financial year. Cameron said “too many people in Gaza are suffering. No one should be without basic amenities like shelter and bedding, and everyone deserves the dignity that basic hygiene kits provide. Our largest aid delivery, combined with a new UK funded field hospital, will save lives.” The UK also joined the US and other allied states in issuing a statement on opening a maritime aid corridor yesterday.

4. The IDF continues to operate across the length of Gaza Strip. According to the IDF, in the Hamad neighbourhood in western Khan Yunis, the IDF killed, “approximately one hundred terrorists….The operations also involved more than one hundred aerial strikes carried out in close proximity to the ground forces.” Ahead of any potential ground incursion into Rafah, the IDF carried out a precise targeted strike, killing Muhammad Abu Hasna, the head of Hamas’ Operations Unit in the Rafah area. According to the IDF spokesperson’s office, “Hasna was a combat support operative in Hamas’ military wing. He was also involved in taking control of Humanitarian Aid and distributing it to Hamas terrorists. Furthermore, Hasna coordinated the activities of various Hamas units, as well as communicated with and activated Hamas field operatives. Hasna was also responsible for an intelligence operations room which provides information on IDF positions for use in Hamas attacks.” Also yesterday, a mortar was fired from central Gaza toward Kibbutz Nahal Oz, however it fell inside the Gaza Strip. According to the IDF, “Within a few minutes, the terrorists responsible for the attempted launch were struck and eliminated by IDF aircraft.”

5. Israel media is reporting growing tensions in the War Cabinet over the future administration of the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly rejected a plan presented by the security establishment, backed by Defence Minister Gallant and with US support, for training several thousand Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip to serve as a security force in the central and northern Strip and to be tasked with distributing Humanitarian Aid, among other things. The plan would see between 4000 and 7000 Palestinian troops chosen by Palestinian Authority’s Head of Intelligence Maj. Gen. Majed Faraj, then being vetted by Israel, before being trained, armed and deployed to Gaza. Netanyahu rejected the idea as it would empower the PA – something which, despite significant US encouragement, he is reluctant to do. Gallant is quoted as saying “The problem with the humanitarian [aid] isn’t getting the goods in, but who distributes it. Someone has got to take control and he isn’t going to be a Swede. He’s got to be Fatah.”

6. Northern Israel continues to be attacked from Lebanon. This morning, an anti-tank guided missile was fired at the IDF base in Zarit, as well as rocket fire directed to Kfar Blum. No injuries have been reported. Over the last couple of days, Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets into northern Israel. In response the Israeli Air Force has struck Hezbollah targets, including military compounds in the areas of Qantara, Yater and Aalma El Chaeb. In addition, the IDF announced, “an aircraft in the area of Tyre struck Hadi Ali Mustafa, a significant operative in Hamas’ department responsible for its international terrorist activities. In his position, Hadi directed terrorist cells and activities in the field, and advanced terror attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets in various countries around the world. Hadi operated under the direction of Samir Fendi, one of Saleh al-Arouri’s associates who was killed together with him” in a strike in January. Earlier in the week, the IDF revealed that over the last five months they have struck approximately 4,500 Hezbollah targets, killing over 300 Hezbollah fighters.

7. After two days of often angry debate, the Knesset passed an amended wartime budget yesterday, by 62 votes to 55. The government spending limit for 2024 has been increased to NIS 584.1 billion (£125 billion), more than NIS 70 billion (£15 billion) higher than the original budget. The budget sees significantly expanded military expenditure, as well as other wartime civilian considerations. Netanyahu said it “guarantees the continuation of the war until complete victory and benefits the citizens of Israel and the state’s economy.” Critics argue the budget does not go far enough scaling back on interests linked to coalition factions, including controversial allocations for the ultra-Orthodox. Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said it was the most “sectoral, detached and profligate budget in the history of the State of Israel” and that it would be “the last budget this government will pass.”

8. Following Gideon Saar’s announcement earlier this week that his New Hope faction was leaving the National Unity Party, Channels 12 and 13 report fresh polling. Both polls show Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party (now operating alone after Saar’s split) as the largest Knesset Faction. Channel 13 shows Blue and White 34 seats (Channel 12 33); Likud 17 (18); Yesh Atid 14 (13); Shas 9 (11); Jewish Power 9 (8); Yisrael Beiteinu 8 (11); United Torah Judaism 7 (7); New Hope 6 (5); United Arab List 4 (4); Religious Zionist Party 4 (0); Meretz 4 (4); Hadash-Ta’al 4 (5). Both polls therefore predict workable majorities for the Anti-Netanyahu bloc. Channel 13 conducts a separate poll asking voters if their votes would be different were Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen to form two new parties. A prospective Bennett party shows a strong 18 seats and Cohen 11 – their support coming from voters otherwise attracted to Blue and White, the Likud, and Yesh Atid. Channel 12 shows less support for Bennett (12 seats).

March 12, 2024

March 12th – Day 158 of the war: News in Brief

1. There are unconfirmed reports that the third most senior Hamas leader, Marwan Issa, was killed in an Israeli air strike, early Sunday morning. Speaking on Sunday night, IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari said that Issa was part of the terrorist triumvirate leadership, along with Deif and Sinwar. Hagari said: “On Saturday night, in a joint IDF-GSS operation, combat planes attacked an underground compound of the Hamas leadership in the central Gaza Strip in the Nuseirat area. The compound was used by two of the leaders. We are still studying the results of the attack and there is still no final confirmation.” In his statement, Hagari identified a second senior figure in the tunnel as Razi Abu Tama’a, Hamas’s arms chief and a former commander of its armed forces in central Gaza. Marwan Issa served as Mohammad Dief’s deputy, second in command of the Hamas military wing. Israeli analysts described him as a “brilliant strategic mind” and considered central to the planning of October 7th alongside Deif and Sinwar. Hamas has yet to issue an official statement announcing his death. This could be due to the general destruction in the Strip and the difficulty in locating his body, or a deliberate Hamas ploy to not announce his loss. If his death is confirmed, it would make him the highest ranking target in the war so far, even more senior than Arouri, who was killed in Lebanon. It also sends a signal to Sinwar and Deif that Israeli intelligence is looking for them too.2. This morning, sirens have been heard in the north, both in the Golan and the Galilee near the Lebanon border. Israel is reporting that Hezbollah has launched over 100 rockets so far. Some of the rockets have been intercepted, whilst most fell in open areas. No injuries have been reported so far. In response, the IDF confirms that three rocket launchers that fired dozens of rockets towards northern Israel this morning were targeted with air strikes and destroyed. Overall, Hezbollah has fired over 2,500 rockets into Israel since October 7th, resulting in 17 Israelis killed. In response 239 Hezbollah fighters have been killed so far.3. On Sunday night the Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah targets in the Baalbek region, around 100 km north of the border. This is the second time the Israeli Air Force has targeted the area since the war begun. The first time was two weeks ago after an Israeli UAV was shot down over Lebanon. Lebanese sources reported strikes on two compounds belonging Hezbollah’s aerial force, which had planned and executed attacks against Israel. The IDF spokesperson said that the strike was in retaliation for the UAVs that were launched onto the Golan Heights in the last few days.4. The first ship in a pilot programme carrying Humanitarian Aid by sea has today set sail from the port of Larnaca in Cyprus. The Open Arms is carrying almost 200 tonnes of food, supplied by Cyprus, the UAE, and the NGO World Central Kitchen (WCK) and will dock on a WCK-built pier on the Gaza coast, south of Gaza City. Israeli officials say that WCK will then be responsible for distributing the food to Gazan civilians. WCK says it has another 500 tonnes of food ready in Cyprus for future deliveries. In announcing the maiden voyage, it said that deliveries by sea would enable aid to reach many more Gazans, but pushed for further land crossings to be opened, too. Elsewhere, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said yesterday that the process of the US delivering a huge shipment of flour to Gaza has started. The shipment, enough to feed 1.5 million Gazans for five months, was first mooted nearly two months ago, before being blocked by Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich, who cited UNRWA’s unsuitability to distribute it. The shipment is now set to be distributed in Gaza by the World Food Programme instead.5. A senior Israeli official said yesterday that a hostage deal “might be possible… under certain conditions”. Speaking to Ynet, the same official said that despite US warnings that it would constitute a “red line”, an Israeli operation in Rafah was likely. “An operation in Rafah will happen… the question is when – because there are many complexities here,” they said. With Hamas opting to stall and increase its demands for a deal, the Israeli Security Cabinet discussed empowering its negotiators with broader terms – an idea unanimously rejected by all cabinet members. Qatari media is reporting that CIA Director Burns, who met with Mossad head Barnea over the weekend, has explored the possibility of a brief cease-fire to facilitate further negotiations. Meanwhile, Israel is said to be weighing the idea of securing the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) assistance in administering Gaza if Hamas is removed from power. Israel media reports that Defence Minister Gallant has mentioned Commander of the General Intelligence Service Maj. Gen. Majed Faraj, a close associate of PA President Abbas as someone who might be heavily involved.6. Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Katz addressed the UN Security Council’s emergency session to discuss the report on Hamas’ sexual crimes during the October 7th massacre yesterday. “I am here on behalf of the women and girls who were raped, murdered and mutilated by Hamas murderers,” said Katz. Katz also demanded that the UN recognise Hamas as a terrorist organisation and exert all possible pressure to return the remaining hostages. “The United Nations has been silent regarding on the actions of Hamas for too long,” Katz said. “Over the past five months, since October 7, the United Nations has convened 41 times and has neither condemned nor denounced the brutal crimes of Hamas.” The UN report, authored by Pramila Patten, found “reasonable grounds” to conclude that Hamas committed rape and gang rape at multiple sites during the massacre, as well as “clear and convincing information” that hostages in Gaza were subject to “sexual violence including rape, sexualised torture, cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment.”7. Former French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, head of the UN’s independent Review Group examining the actions UNRWA on October 7th, began her visit to Israel yesterday. Visiting Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, before proceeding to Ramallah and Amman, Colonna will be shown evidence of illustrating the extent of Hamas penetration of the aid agency, Hamas’s use of UNRWA facilities, including schools and clinics, to store weapons and launch attacks, and its locating of terror tunnels in or near UNRWA facilities. Katz welcomed Colonna’s arrival and stressed that Israel is cooperating fully with the committee, established by UN Secretary General Guterres in the wake of Israeli revelations of UNRWA staff’s complicity in the Hamas massacre.

March 11, 2024

Ramadan begins with no breakthrough on hostage deal

What’s happened: As Ramadan begins, there is still no breakthrough in US-Qatari-brokered negotiations regarding a hostage release/cease fire in Gaza.

It was revealed on Sunday that Mossad Director Barnea met on Friday in Jordan with CIA Director Burns, who is holding a series of meetings in the region to try to prevent the negotiations over a hostage deal from collapsing.
The Prime Minister’s Office released a statement, saying of their meeting that “At this stage, Hamas is holding to its position as if it was uninterested in a deal and is striving to ignite the region during Ramadan at the expense of the Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip. It should be emphasised that the contacts and cooperation with the mediators are ongoing in an effort to narrow the gaps and advance agreements.”
There are growing suggestions that Qatar could place more leverage on Hamas’s leadership. Among the threats could be threatening to expel top Hamas political bureau officials from Doha should they fail to persuade the movement’s leadership in Gaza to come to an agreement, or cutting off access to finances.
In a bid to help ensure calm in Israel and the West Bank over Ramadan, Shin Bet Director Bar visited Bahrain and Jordan last week, for talks with officials there.
On Saturday night, President Biden offered his harshest criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu since the beginning of the war. Netanyahu was “hurting Israel more than helping Israel. He has a right to defend Israel, but he must, he must, he must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of the actions taken.”
In response, Netanyahu said he didn’t “know exactly what the president meant… if he meant by that that I was pursuing private policy against the wish of the majority of Israelis and that this was hurting the interests of Israel, then he is wrong on both counts.”
Lord Cameron, the British Foreign Secretary, welcomed the US plan to improve the distribution of Humanitarian Aid in Gaza by building a pier off the Gazan coast to allow for maritime delivery of aid, rather than relying on overland truck convoys and airdrops. Cameron confirmed that the British government had been involved in with it “from the start”, and would be “helping with the pre-screening of aid”.
He also called on Israel to allow the port of Ashdod to be used to transfer more aid to the Gaza Strip while the US was completing this pier.

Context: Israeli officials believe that Hamas delayed and stalled on negotiations in a deliberate bid to have Ramadan begin with no agreement reached.

It hopes that it can succeed in inciting violence to such an extent that Israeli attention and resources are diverted from Gaza. Friday’s terror attack in the West Bank, in which seven Israeli soldiers were wounded, indicates the scale of the task facing security services in preventing an escalation during the holy month.
With the Biden Administration agreeing that the lack of a deal is due to Hamas intransigence and not Israeli inflexibility, the Israeli War Cabinet is not minded to empower Israel’s negotiators to negotiate with broader terms.
Gaza’s already precarious humanitarian situation has significantly worsened since 7^th October, with approximately 80 percent of its population estimated to be internally displaced. Overland convoys of trucks are insufficient, and both the US and Arab partners have recently resorted to airdropping food and medical aid into the coastal enclave.
By opening a maritime corridor between Larnaca in Cyprus and an artificial pier off the coast of Gaza, it is hoped that this humanitarian situation can be partially alleviated.
Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant has said that Israel supports the pier plan and that it could help topple Hamas from power in Gaza: “The process is designed to bring aid directly to the residents and thus continue the collapse of Hamas’s rule in Gaza.”
He also said that the establishment of this corridor would “ensure that supplies reach here for those who need them and not for those who don’t”.
Hamas has repeated appropriated aid intended for the Gaza Strip’s civilian population. Israel has long pursued a policy of caution when allowing its entry to the coastal enclave. This requirement to balance security with an obligation to facilitate aid distribution has compounded the coastal enclave’s precarious humanitarian situation since the outbreak of war in October:
An average of 95 trucks carry aid entered the Gaza Strip daily between October 2023 and February 2024, down from approximately 500 before the 7^th October attacks. Approximately two million Gazans are estimated to be reliant on the UN for aid provision.
The Israeli government has responded to criticisms that it is not allowing enough aid into the coastal enclave by saying that “there is no limit to the amount of aid that can enter Gaza”, and stressing that it can facilitate the entry of more trucks.
Israel maintains that aid organisations and Hamas are to blame for the Gaza Strip’s humanitarian situation, and the real issues lie with how aid is being distributed once it arrives in the coastal enclave.
Since at least November 2023, reports have emerged of gunmen looting aid convoys. Israel says these gunmen are Hamas members, and points to their actions as one of the reasons why Gazan civilians have been unable to access aid.

Looking ahead: There remains hope that a hostage deal can still be reached during Ramadan.

This pier will be built by the US Army and is expected to take six to eight weeks to complete. The US has also said that Israel would secure this pier.
If a deal fails to be reached, Israeli officials continue to insist that an operation in Rafah remains essential in order to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities and its capacity to re-arm

March 8, 2024

Biden announces Gaza pier in state of the union

What’s happened: In his State of the Union address, President Biden said the US military would establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the Gaza coast to help deliver Humanitarian Aid.

The emergency mission is to build a pier that would be able to receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine and temporary shelters and, according to Biden, “would enable a massive increase in the amount of humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza every day.” The pier will take a number of weeks to be built.
In his speech, Biden stressed that there would be no US boots on the ground. While urging that the humanitarian situation be addressed, Biden also reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself, and emphasised that the crisis began with “Hamas’ massacre”. “The 1,200 innocent people – women and girls, men and boys – slaughtered, many enduring sexual violence. The deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust; 250 hostages taken.”
“Israel has a right to go after Hamas. Hamas could end this conflict today by releasing the hostages, laying down arms, and surrendering those responsible for October 7th. Israel has an added burden because Hamas hides and operates among the civilian population. But Israel also has a fundamental responsibility to protect innocent civilians in Gaza.”
Biden also discussed the destruction in Gaza, calling it heartbreaking. “This war has taken a greater toll on innocent civilians than all previous wars in Gaza combined. More than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed. Most of whom are not Hamas. Nearly 2 million more Palestinians under bombardment or displaced. Homes destroyed, neighbourhoods in rubble, cities in ruin. Families without food, water, medicine.”
Biden also stated the importance of humanitarian assistance to the citizens of Gaza. “To the leadership of Israel, I say this: humanitarian assistance cannot be a secondary consideration or a bargaining chip. Protecting and saving innocent lives has to be a priority.”
He added “as we look to the future, the only real solution is a two-state solution.”
Reports suggest that as Ramadan approaches, the chances for a hostage deal remain slim.
While Israel has responded positively to the blueprint put forward by the US, Egypt and Qatar, Hamas has reportedly increased its demands to include a complete IDF withdrawal from Gaza and a higher number of prisoners released. Official US sources said the deal is stalled because Hamas is refusing to release sick and elderly hostages.
This week, in an attempt to calm tensions in the Arab world and ensure Humanitarian Aid reaches Gaza via alternative routes, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s military secretary Major General Gil secretly visited the UAE.
Asked to by Israel, the US, UK and France submitted an official request for an emergency UN Security Council session on special representative Pramila Patten’s report accusing Hamas of sexual crimes on October 7 and beyond.

Context: Biden’s speech comes in the context of increased tension between Israel and the US regarding the delivery of Humanitarian Aid to the Strip. Cabinet minister Gantz, who this week visited Washington and London, came under criticism for Israel’s response to this issue as well as the IDF’s plan to operate in Rafah.

The increase of humanitarian aid reaching the Gazan population has been a repeated concern on the administration.
In joint operations with Jordan, Egypt, and France, the US has intensified its air-drops of aid into the Gaza Strip, yesterday dropping 28,000 meals, bringing the total dropped this week to 112,896 meals.
The US hopes that by increasing the total tonnage of aid through the new sea route and with air drops, more aid can reach the population, overcoming widespread looting and Hamas obstruction. The US will continue to act in conjunction with Israel to ensure the latter’s security needs are met in the aid delivery process.
Yesterday, the UN began to assess using an Israeli military road bordering the Gaza Strip to deliver aid into the territory. Israel has consistently maintained that it is not responsible for aid bottlenecks, and that the UN has failed to keep pace with Israel’s checking and clearing of aid trucks.
Senior defence officials have said in closed-door meetings that looting aid in the Gaza Strip won’t stop until trucks carrying humanitarian aid entering Gaza are protected by armed officials. (For more, see Israeli Media Summary below.)
The basic formula for a deal presented during meetings in Paris and Cairo includes different stages:
- The first stage would include Hamas freeing about 35 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel. This would be alongside a six-week ceasefire, during which talks would be held about freeing the remaining hostages.
- Stage two would include the return of the rest of the hostages in exchange for a full IDF withdrawal from Gaza Strip although Israel has not committed to this.
Gaps remain regarding the number of “heavyweight” prisoners Israel will release. Hamas is demanding the first stage include the release of about 100 prisoners who have murdered Israelis, as well as the nature of the transition to a permanent cease-fire and the end of the war, and the number of Palestinians who will return to northern Gaza. Israel is willing to allow women and children while Hamas want all residents.
Without a deal and a pause in the war, there is a fear of escalation surrounding the Temple Mount during Ramdan. The site has traditionally been a scene of tension which could lead to protests in the West Bank and wider Arab world.

Looking ahead: The Turkish Red Crescent will today send its largest aid package yet to Gaza. 3,000 tonnes of food, medicine and equipment left for the Egyptian port of Al-Arish yesterday and will be transported to Rafah in 200 trucks.

CIA Director William Burns is in the Middle East to try to create a breakthrough on a hostage-release deal. Burns arrived in Qatar yesterday after a secret visit to Cairo.
If a deal for a hostage release and a ceasefire is not reached before Ramadan, the policy challenge over a ground operation in Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah in central Gaza and / or Rafah will increase.

March 7, 2024

March 7th – Day 153 of the war: News in Brief

1. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak joined a London meeting yesterday between Israeli war cabinet Minister Gantz and UK National Security Adviser Sir Tim Barrow. Gantz’s office said he thanked the UK “for its efforts on behalf of Israel’s security and stressed the importance of continued international pressure on Hamas to secure the release of the hostages.” Gantz also thanked the UK “for its efforts to curb the threat posed by the Iranian axis of terror in the Red Sea and in the region more broadly.” Earlier in the day, Gantz met with UK Foreign Secretary Cameron. “We discussed efforts to secure a humanitarian pause to get the hostages safely home and lifesaving supplies into Gaza,” Cameron said. “I once again pressed Israel to increase the flow of aid. We are still not seeing improvements on the ground. This must change.” Like his visit to Washington this week, Gantz’s London trip was not sanctioned by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

2. The New York Times reports increasing pessimism regarding the prospects for securing a hostage release/ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas before Ramadan. Discussions look to have stalled over Hamas insistence on a permanent ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and the return to northern Gaza of residents displaced by fighting. Israel has already agreed to a “redeployment” of forces within Gaza, and the return of women and children to the north. According to US reports, Washington is considering pressing Qatar to threaten to expel Hamas officials from Doha if they fail to agree to a hostage release. President Biden said this week that a deal was in Hamas’s hands, while at the UN, the US revised language in a draft Security Council resolution to back “an immediate ceasefire of roughly six-weeks in Gaza together with the release of all hostages.”

3. In coordination with Israel, the UN will today assess using an Israeli military road bordering the Gaza Strip to deliver aid into the territory. The US also made its second airdrop of aid into Gaza yesterday in a joint operation with Jordan, Egypt, and France. Also yesterday, Israel’s Channel 13 reported that Israel will the for the first time allow Humanitarian Aid to enter Gaza via sea. The UAE will finance the aid shipments, which will be sent from there to Cyprus, for inspection by Israeli officials. Sources suggest the first aid ship will sail from Cyprus in the coming days.

4. The IDF has named a soldier killed in fighting in Gaza yesterday as Staff Sgt. David Sasson, 21. 12 other soldiers were wounded, five seriously, when Hamas gunmen in the Hamad neighbourhood of Khan Yunis opened fire. Another soldier was critically wounded yesterday in a battle in another part of the Strip. Elsewhere in Gaza, IDF operations continue in the Hamad Town neighbourhood of Khan Yunis. Soldiers raided several sites in the neighbourhood, locating a weapons manufacturing plant, explosive devices and military equipment, the IDF says. Troops also located several tunnel shafts, and destroyed a number of Hamas offices in the area.

5. The state commission of inquiry tasked with investigating the circumstances that led to the death of 45 men and boys attending the 2021 Lag B’Omer festival on Mt. Meron published its report yesterday. It found that Prime Minister Netanyahu, former Public Security Minister Ohana, Police Commissioner Shabtai and former Religious Services Minister Avitan all bore personal responsibility for the disaster. In response, the Likud accused the inquiry of being a politically motivated attack by the previous Bennett-Lapid government. As well as being criticised by Lapid, who called for Netanyahu to resign, this response was attacked from within the Likud itself. Economy Minister Barkat said: “It is a grave mistake to turn the commission of inquiry into the Mt. Meron disaster into a political event.” Likud MK Eli Dellal wrote on X: “If you have nothing smart/good/leader-like to say, it’s best not to say anything.” Likud MK Tally Gotliv said: “I am a Likud member and I do not agree with the Likud’s infuriating response to the Meron commission’s conclusions.” Ohana, also from the Likud and now the Speaker of the Knesset, accepted the findings of the report and said the catastrophe resulted from “a long-standing failure in organising the event and the infrastructure of the place.”

6. The Shin Bet intelligence service has followed the IDF in beginning its own operational review into the October 7^th massacres and the events leading up to them. The review will take several weeks – a possibly months – and will consider the handling of intelligence received on the evening of October 6^th indicating a possible attack. Shin Bet head Ronen Bar took responsibility for intelligence failures shortly after the event, saying “the responsibility resides with me for our failure to produce a satisfactory warning.”

7. For the first time, Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels have resulted in fatalities to crew. Three crew members of the Barbados-flagged True Confidence died after a Houthi missile strike hit the vessel yesterday. The government of the Philippines has confirmed that two of its citizens were among those killed. The news comes days after the Belize-flagged cargo ship, Rubymar, became the first vessel to sink after being hit by Houthi missiles. Also yesterday, according to US CENTCOM, the US conducted “self-defence strikes against two unmanned aerial vehicles in a Houthi controlled area of Yemen that presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.” On Tuesday, the US shot down a ballistic missile and three drones launched from Yemen at the destroyer USS Carney. Three anti-ship missiles and three sea drones were also fired at the ship. Communications cables under the Red Sea were also cut this week, affecting 25 percent of data traffic flowing between Asia and Europe. The cause of the damage is as yet unknown. The Houthis have carried out more than 60 Red Sea attacks in recent months, with analysts assessing that the US coalition’s strikes at missile-launching sites are not having a deterrent effect.

March 6, 2024

Netanyahu overrules Ben Gvir on Temple Mount restrictions

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced that there will be no new restrictions on the access to Jerusalem’s al-Aqsa Mosque for Muslim Arab citizens of Israel during Ramadan.

The decision was made at a meeting chaired by the prime minister and attended by Defence Minister Gallant, Foreign Minister Katz, war cabinet Minister Eisenkot, National Security Minister Ben Gvir, and representatives of all security agencies.
In line with the model of previous years, numbers will be determined purely by the site’s capacity and the police and security services’ ability to maintain calm and order.
West Bank Palestinians will also be permitted to visit, but in reduced numbers from previous years. They will be subject to age restrictions and Shin Bet assessment.
The situation will be reassessed on a weekly basis. If the first few weeks of the holy month proceed peacefully, numbers may even be increased in subsequent weeks.
Netanyahu said “Israel’s policy was and always will be to maintain freedom of worship for all faiths. That is how we acted during Ramadan, of course, and it is how we will act now as well. We will do everything to maintain freedom of worship on the Temple Mount while aptly providing for security and safety needs and enabling the Muslim public to celebrate the holiday.”
United Arab List Chairman Mansour Abbas welcomed the policy, saying: “I congratulate the prime minister for the decision to permit freedom of worship to Muslims at al-Aqsa Mosque. I call on the Arab public to exercise its right and hold prayers during this holy month, while obeying the law and maintaining public order.”
Ben Gvir responded angrily to the decision, saying that “to allow visits to the Temple Mount during Ramadan similar to past years, in contrast to my position and the police’s position, shows that Netanyahu and the small cabinet think that nothing happened on October 7. This decision endangers Israel’s citizens and could give Hamas a victory picture.”

Context: In reaching the decision, Netanyahu has sided with the military and security establishments over Ben Gvir, who had demanded unprecedented restrictions on Arab citizens of Israel’s visitation rights.

The two attempted to craft a joint statement after the decision was reached, but were unable to agree on a text.
When reports of Ben Gvir’s proposed policy surfaced last month, initial suggestions were that Netanyahu was inclined to side with the national security minister, though the attorney general warned that blanket bans on Israel’s Muslim citizens was likely illegal.
Israeli Police Commissioner Shabtai, while acknowledging the security challenges, ultimately sided with the military and intelligence establishments over Ben Gvir. In response to Netanyahu’s decision, the force said that the 50,000-60,000 likely visitors to the Temple Mount in the first weeks were manageable, if “borderline”.
Restrictions on West Bank residents on the grounds of age have been implemented in previous years, with younger men more likely to incite violence and therefore generally prevented from entering the compound. In more peaceful times, the Jerusalem municipality often laid on buses to help West Bank Palestinians travel to the Temple Mount. This is highly unlikely to be repeated this year.
Ramadan is always a time of increased tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank. The war in Gaza, coupled with Hamas’s persistent attempts to incite around the issue of the Temple Mount, have made this year a particular challenge for security, police, and military officials.
Gallant recently sent a document to top security officials in which he warned about the knock-on effect of a security flare-up in Jerusalem and the West Bank during Ramadan on the war in Gaza. “An escalation will make it difficult for us to concentrate efforts and carry out the IDF’s tasks to achieve the war’s objectives because of the need to divert troops to Judea and Samaria and other sectors,” he said.
Gallant’s document recommended following the security establishment’s line on entry to the Temple Mount and addressed “irresponsible statements” by Israeli political figures, a likely reference to Ben Gvir.
Hamas has repeatedly tried to link its campaign of violence and terror to al-Aqsa, Islam’s third holiest site. It named its October 7^thoperation “al-Aqsa Flood”, and has traditionally spread inciting disinformation over Israeli actions there.
Hamas Politburo Chair, Ismail Haniyeh, called last week for Muslims to march on Al Aqsa on the first night of Ramadan. “The siege of Al-Aqsa and the siege of Gaza are one and the same,” he said in a televised speech in Beirut.
With the lead-up to Ramadan coinciding with Hamas’s stalling and inflexibility on the terms of a hostage/ceasefire deal, Israeli officials estimate that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar – seemingly out of contact with the rest of Hamas’s leadership – prefers to delay a deal and to instead seek to exploit tensions during the holy month to spark a regional conflagration.
From October 7^thonwards, Hamas has sought to incite Arab citizens of Israel to join the fight against Israel. Not only has this failed to materialise, but polls have shown Arab citizens rejecting Hamas en masse, and reporting record levels of identification with the Israeli state.

Looking ahead: Ramadan begins on Sunday night. The police will now prepare for a major operation, with thousands of officers deployed on the Temple Mount, in the alleyways leading to it, across the Old City and East Jerusalem, as well as at the entrances to the city.

Close attention will be paid to social media, with police and intelligence officers scanning channels for signs of fake news or disinformation designed to increase tensions.

March 5, 2024

March 5th – Day 151 of the war: News in Brief

1. Reports continue to suggest the breakdown of Qatari-mediated negotiations between Israel and Hamas. While Israel requires a list of living hostages captured on 7^th October, Hamas has now claimed that it is unable to do so as it does not itself know who is still alive and where they are. Speaking to the BBC, Hamas Politburo member, Basim Naim said: “it is now impossible to know exactly who is still alive and who has been killed because of the Israeli bombardment or who has been killed because of starvation because of the Israeli blockade… [the hostages] are in different areas with different groups and therefore we have called for a ceasefire to be able to collect the data.” It has also been reported that Hamas chief, Yahya Sinwar, has not been contactable for over a week further complicating negotiation attempts.

2. US Vice President, Kamala Harris, met with Israeli War Cabinet Minister, Benny Gantz, in Washington DC yesterday. While the Vice President “expressed her deep concern about the humanitarian conditions in Gaza”, she has also praised Israel’s “constructive approach” in ongoing hostage negotiations. It is understood that while not authorised by Netanyahu or supported by the Israeli Embassy in DC, Gantz’s trip is an attempt to smooth increasingly strained US-Israeli relations as the Biden administration’s frustration over Gaza’s humanitarian situation mounts. While the US administration reiterated its support for Israel and its right to self-defence, it also called for a “credible and implementable humanitarian plan” given the increasing likelihood of an assault on Rafah if attempts to reach a ceasefire fail.

3. The Israeli Air Force has shot down what it described as “a suspicious aerial target” which entered Israel from Syria, believed to have been a drone. Iraqi Shia militias which have close links to Iran and are known to operate in Syria have previously attempted to launch drone attacks at Israeli communities in the Golan Heights. This attack is yet to be claimed or attributed, though. Visiting Beirut, US Special Envoy, Amos Hochstein, highlighted the importance of a diplomatic solution to current tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border. “A diplomatic solution is the only way to end the current hostilities…[and achieve] a lasting fair security arrangement between Lebanon and Israel,” he said. He also stressed that a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah was insufficient. Yesterday, a Thai farm worker was killed and seven others injured by a Hezbollah anti-tank fired at the border community of Margaliot. The IDF responded with artillery fire.

4. IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari yesterday published the names of three more UNRWA employees who participated in the October 7th attack. This brings the total number of UNRWA employees accused by Israel of direct participation to 15. Recordings were also released illustrating the barbarity of the employees’ conduct during the massacre. “We have female hostages, I captured one!” says Yousef al-Hawajara, a Hamas terrorist the IDF says worked as a teacher at a UNRWA school in Deir al-Balah. Al-Hawajara is also heard saying he “saw the sights… They shot them in the eyes…” Hagari said that another recording shows a UNRWA-affiliated terrorist saying he had captured a “sabaya,” a term meaning sex slave used by ISIS jihadists. The IDF Spokesperson’s Office says about 450 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists are employed by UNRWA. Israel has today criticised the EU Commission for its announcement last Friday that it is to give the agency 50 million euros.

5. The UN yesterday released its official report on atrocities committed by Hamas in the course of the October 7th massacre. The report confirms widespread sexual assault during the attack, including proof of rape, rape of dead bodies, naked and bound women being shot at the scene of the Nova music festival, and genital mutilation of bodies. Pramila Patten, the UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, also said that there was “clear and convincing information that sexual violence including rape, sexualised torture, cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment” of hostages being held in Gaza. However, the UN failed to ascribe the widespread sexual violence to Hamas specifically, on the grounds that members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other Gazans participated in October 7th. Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz called Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan back to Jerusalem for consultations on an Israeli response to what he called an “attempt to silence the grave UN report about the acts of mass rape that were committed by Hamas and its helpers on October 7.” Katz also accused UN Secretary General Guterres of “acting to soften the serious report that he himself ordered on the sexual offences of Hamas, trying to keep Hamas from being held responsible…”

6. Three Arab-Israeli MKs met yesterday in Amman with Jordan’s King Abdullah. Ayman Odeh, head of the Hadash-Ta’al list, Ta’al chairman Ahmad Tibi, and Hadash MK Youssef Atauna discussed with Abdullah concerns that tensions over Jerusalem’s Holy Sites, exacerbated by the war in Gaza, could erupt during Ramadan. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Israel Police head Kobi Shabtai, and Shin Ben head Ronen Bar met on Sunday to discuss security provisions for the Temple Mount during the Muslim holy month. National Security Minister Ben Gvir has proposed unprecedented restrictions on Arab-Israelis’ access to the site, but lacks support from fellow security cabinet members and is opposed by the security and military establishments. An Israeli Police statement over the weekend stressed the force would “continue to do everything in its power to maintain the balance between freedom of worship and public peace and security.”

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