What’s happened: As Ramadan begins, there is still no breakthrough in US-Qatari-brokered negotiations regarding a hostage release/cease fire in Gaza.

• It was revealed on Sunday that Mossad Director Barnea met on Friday in Jordan with CIA Director Burns, who is holding a series of meetings in the region to try to prevent the negotiations over a hostage deal from collapsing.
• The Prime Minister’s Office released a statement, saying of their meeting that “At this stage, Hamas is holding to its position as if it was uninterested in a deal and is striving to ignite the region during Ramadan at the expense of the Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip. It should be emphasised that the contacts and cooperation with the mediators are ongoing in an effort to narrow the gaps and advance agreements.”
• There are growing suggestions that Qatar could place more leverage on Hamas’s leadership. Among the threats could be threatening to expel top Hamas political bureau officials from Doha should they fail to persuade the movement’s leadership in Gaza to come to an agreement, or cutting off access to finances.
• In a bid to help ensure calm in Israel and the West Bank over Ramadan, Shin Bet Director Bar visited Bahrain and Jordan last week, for talks with officials there.
• On Saturday night, President Biden offered his harshest criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu since the beginning of the war. Netanyahu was “hurting Israel more than helping Israel. He has a right to defend Israel, but he must, he must, he must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of the actions taken.”
• In response, Netanyahu said he didn’t “know exactly what the president meant… if he meant by that that I was pursuing private policy against the wish of the majority of Israelis and that this was hurting the interests of Israel, then he is wrong on both counts.”
• Lord Cameron, the British Foreign Secretary, welcomed the US plan to improve the distribution of Humanitarian Aid in Gaza by building a pier off the Gazan coast to allow for maritime delivery of aid, rather than relying on overland truck convoys and airdrops. Cameron confirmed that the British government had been involved in with it “from the start”, and would be “helping with the pre-screening of aid”.
• He also called on Israel to allow the port of Ashdod to be used to transfer more aid to the Gaza Strip while the US was completing this pier.

Context:  Israeli officials believe that Hamas delayed and stalled on negotiations in a deliberate bid to have Ramadan begin with no agreement reached.

• It hopes that it can succeed in inciting violence to such an extent that Israeli attention and resources are diverted from Gaza. Friday’s terror attack in the West Bank, in which seven Israeli soldiers were wounded, indicates the scale of the task facing security services in preventing an escalation during the holy month.
• With the Biden Administration agreeing that the lack of a deal is due to Hamas intransigence and not Israeli inflexibility, the Israeli War Cabinet is not minded to empower Israel’s negotiators to negotiate with broader terms.
• Gaza’s already precarious humanitarian situation has significantly worsened since 7^th October, with approximately 80 percent of its population estimated to be internally displaced. Overland convoys of trucks are insufficient, and both the US and Arab partners have recently resorted to airdropping food and medical aid into the coastal enclave.
• By opening a maritime corridor between Larnaca in Cyprus and an artificial pier off the coast of Gaza, it is hoped that this humanitarian situation can be partially alleviated.
• Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant has said that Israel supports the pier plan and that it could help topple Hamas from power in Gaza: “The process is designed to bring aid directly to the residents and thus continue the collapse of Hamas’s rule in Gaza.”
• He also said that the establishment of this corridor would “ensure that supplies reach here for those who need them and not for those who don’t”.
• Hamas has repeated appropriated aid intended for the Gaza Strip’s civilian population. Israel has long pursued a policy of caution when allowing its entry to the coastal enclave. This requirement to balance security with an obligation to facilitate aid distribution has compounded the coastal enclave’s precarious humanitarian situation since the outbreak of war in October:
• An average of 95 trucks carry aid entered the Gaza Strip daily between October 2023 and February 2024, down from approximately 500 before the 7^th October attacks. Approximately two million Gazans are estimated to be reliant on the UN for aid provision.
• The Israeli government has responded to criticisms that it is not allowing enough aid into the coastal enclave by saying that “there is no limit to the amount of aid that can enter Gaza”, and stressing that it can facilitate the entry of more trucks.
• Israel maintains that aid organisations and Hamas are to blame for the Gaza Strip’s humanitarian situation, and the real issues lie with how aid is being distributed once it arrives in the coastal enclave.
• Since at least November 2023, reports have emerged of gunmen looting aid convoys. Israel says these gunmen are Hamas members, and points to their actions as one of the reasons why Gazan civilians have been unable to access aid.

Looking ahead: There remains hope that a hostage deal can still be reached during Ramadan.

• This pier will be built by the US Army and is expected to take six to eight weeks to complete. The US has also said that Israel would secure this pier.
• If a deal fails to be reached, Israeli officials continue to insist that an operation in Rafah remains essential in order to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities and its capacity to re-arm

What’s happened: In his State of the Union address, President Biden said the US military would establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the Gaza coast to help deliver Humanitarian Aid.

• The emergency mission is to build a pier that would be able to receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine and temporary shelters and, according to Biden, “would enable a massive increase in the amount of humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza every day.” The pier will take a number of weeks to be built.
• In his speech, Biden stressed that there would be no US boots on the ground. While urging that the humanitarian situation be addressed, Biden also reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself, and emphasised that the crisis began with “Hamas’ massacre”. “The 1,200 innocent people – women and girls, men and boys – slaughtered, many enduring sexual violence. The deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust; 250 hostages taken.”
• “Israel has a right to go after Hamas. Hamas could end this conflict today by releasing the hostages, laying down arms, and surrendering those responsible for October 7th. Israel has an added burden because Hamas hides and operates among the civilian population. But Israel also has a fundamental responsibility to protect innocent civilians in Gaza.”
• Biden also discussed the destruction in Gaza, calling it heartbreaking. “This war has taken a greater toll on innocent civilians than all previous wars in Gaza combined. More than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed.  Most of whom are not Hamas. Nearly 2 million more Palestinians under bombardment or displaced. Homes destroyed, neighbourhoods in rubble, cities in ruin. Families without food, water, medicine.”
• Biden also stated the importance of humanitarian assistance to the citizens of Gaza. “To the leadership of Israel, I say this: humanitarian assistance cannot be a secondary consideration or a bargaining chip. Protecting and saving innocent lives has to be a priority.”
• He added “as we look to the future, the only real solution is a two-state solution.”
• Reports suggest that as Ramadan approaches, the chances for a hostage deal remain slim.
• While Israel has responded positively to the blueprint put forward by the US, Egypt and Qatar, Hamas has reportedly increased its demands to include a complete IDF withdrawal from Gaza and a higher number of prisoners released.  Official US sources said the deal is stalled because Hamas is refusing to release sick and elderly hostages.
• This week, in an attempt to calm tensions in the Arab world and ensure Humanitarian Aid reaches Gaza via alternative routes, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s military secretary Major General Gil secretly visited the UAE.
• Asked to by Israel, the US, UK and France submitted an official request for an emergency UN Security Council session on special representative Pramila Patten’s report accusing Hamas of sexual crimes on October 7 and beyond.

Context: Biden’s speech comes in the context of increased tension between Israel and the US regarding the delivery of Humanitarian Aid to the Strip. Cabinet minister Gantz, who this week visited Washington and London, came under criticism for Israel’s response to this issue as well as the IDF’s plan to operate in Rafah.

• The increase of humanitarian aid reaching the Gazan population has been a repeated concern on the administration.
• In joint operations with Jordan, Egypt, and France, the US has intensified its air-drops of aid into the Gaza Strip, yesterday dropping 28,000 meals, bringing the total dropped this week to 112,896 meals.
• The US hopes that by increasing the total tonnage of aid through the new sea route and with air drops, more aid can reach the population, overcoming widespread looting and Hamas obstruction. The US will continue to act in conjunction with Israel to ensure the latter’s security needs are met in the aid delivery process.
• Yesterday, the UN began to assess using an Israeli military road bordering the Gaza Strip to deliver aid into the territory. Israel has consistently maintained that it is not responsible for aid bottlenecks, and that the UN has failed to keep pace with Israel’s checking and clearing of aid trucks.
• Senior defence officials have said in closed-door meetings that looting aid in the Gaza Strip won’t stop until trucks carrying humanitarian aid entering Gaza are protected by armed officials. (For more, see Israeli Media Summary below.)
• The basic formula for a deal presented during meetings in Paris and Cairo includes different stages:
  • The first stage would include Hamas freeing about 35 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel. This would be alongside a six-week ceasefire, during which talks would be held about freeing the remaining hostages.
  • Stage two would include the return of the rest of the hostages in exchange for a full IDF withdrawal from Gaza Strip although Israel has not committed to this.
• Gaps remain regarding the number of “heavyweight” prisoners Israel will release. Hamas is demanding the first stage include the release of about 100 prisoners who have murdered Israelis, as well as the nature of the transition to a permanent cease-fire and the end of the war, and the number of Palestinians who will return to northern Gaza. Israel is willing to allow women and children while Hamas want all residents.
• Without a deal and a pause in the war, there is a fear of escalation surrounding the Temple Mount during Ramdan. The site has traditionally been a scene of tension which could lead to protests in the West Bank and wider Arab world.

Looking ahead: The Turkish Red Crescent will today send its largest aid package yet to Gaza. 3,000 tonnes of food, medicine and equipment left for the Egyptian port of Al-Arish yesterday and will be transported to Rafah in 200 trucks.

• CIA Director William Burns is in the Middle East to try to create a breakthrough on a hostage-release deal. Burns arrived in Qatar yesterday after a secret visit to Cairo.
• If a deal for a hostage release and a ceasefire is not reached before Ramadan, the policy challenge over a ground operation in Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah in central Gaza and / or Rafah will increase.

1. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak joined a London meeting yesterday between Israeli war cabinet Minister Gantz and UK National Security Adviser Sir Tim Barrow. Gantz’s office said he thanked the UK “for its efforts on behalf of Israel’s security and stressed the importance of continued international pressure on Hamas to secure the release of the hostages.” Gantz also thanked the UK “for its efforts to curb the threat posed by the Iranian axis of terror in the Red Sea and in the region more broadly.” Earlier in the day, Gantz met with UK Foreign Secretary Cameron. “We discussed efforts to secure a humanitarian pause to get the hostages safely home and lifesaving supplies into Gaza,” Cameron said. “I once again pressed Israel to increase the flow of aid. We are still not seeing improvements on the ground. This must change.” Like his visit to Washington this week, Gantz’s London trip was not sanctioned by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

2. The New York Times reports increasing pessimism regarding the prospects for securing a hostage release/ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas before Ramadan. Discussions look to have stalled over Hamas insistence on a permanent ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and the return to northern Gaza of residents displaced by fighting. Israel has already agreed to a “redeployment” of forces within Gaza, and the return of women and children to the north. According to US reports, Washington is considering pressing Qatar to threaten to expel Hamas officials from Doha if they fail to agree to a hostage release. President Biden said this week that a deal was in Hamas’s hands, while at the UN, the US revised language in a draft Security Council resolution to back “an immediate ceasefire of roughly six-weeks in Gaza together with the release of all hostages.”

3. In coordination with Israel, the UN will today assess using an Israeli military road bordering the Gaza Strip to deliver aid into the territory. The US also made its second airdrop of aid into Gaza yesterday in a joint operation with Jordan, Egypt, and France. Also yesterday, Israel’s Channel 13 reported that Israel will the for the first time allow Humanitarian Aid to enter Gaza via sea. The UAE will finance the aid shipments, which will be sent from there to Cyprus, for inspection by Israeli officials. Sources suggest the first aid ship will sail from Cyprus in the coming days.

4. The IDF has named a soldier killed in fighting in Gaza yesterday as Staff Sgt. David Sasson, 21. 12 other soldiers were wounded, five seriously, when Hamas gunmen in the Hamad neighbourhood of Khan Yunis opened fire. Another soldier was critically wounded yesterday in a battle in another part of the Strip. Elsewhere in Gaza, IDF operations continue in the Hamad Town neighbourhood of Khan Yunis. Soldiers raided several sites in the neighbourhood, locating a weapons manufacturing plant, explosive devices and military equipment, the IDF says. Troops also located several tunnel shafts, and destroyed a number of Hamas offices in the area.

5. The state commission of inquiry tasked with investigating the circumstances that led to the death of 45 men and boys attending the 2021 Lag B’Omer festival on Mt. Meron published its report yesterday. It found that Prime Minister Netanyahu, former Public Security Minister Ohana, Police Commissioner Shabtai and former Religious Services Minister Avitan all bore personal responsibility for the disaster. In response, the Likud accused the inquiry of being a politically motivated attack by the previous Bennett-Lapid government. As well as being criticised by Lapid, who called for Netanyahu to resign, this response was attacked from within the Likud itself. Economy Minister Barkat said: “It is a grave mistake to turn the commission of inquiry into the Mt. Meron disaster into a political event.” Likud MK Eli Dellal wrote on X: “If you have nothing smart/good/leader-like to say, it’s best not to say anything.” Likud MK Tally Gotliv said: “I am a Likud member and I do not agree with the Likud’s infuriating response to the Meron commission’s conclusions.” Ohana, also from the Likud and now the Speaker of the Knesset, accepted the findings of the report and said the catastrophe resulted from “a long-standing failure in organising the event and the infrastructure of the place.”

6. The Shin Bet intelligence service has followed the IDF in beginning its own operational review into the October 7^th massacres and the events leading up to them. The review will take several weeks – a possibly months – and will consider the handling of intelligence received on the evening of October 6^th indicating a possible attack. Shin Bet head Ronen Bar took responsibility for intelligence failures shortly after the event, saying “the responsibility resides with me for our failure to produce a satisfactory warning.”

7. For the first time, Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels have resulted in fatalities to crew. Three crew members of the Barbados-flagged True Confidence died after a Houthi missile strike hit the vessel yesterday. The government of the Philippines has confirmed that two of its citizens were among those killed. The news comes days after the Belize-flagged cargo ship, Rubymar, became the first vessel to sink after being hit by Houthi missiles. Also yesterday, according to US CENTCOM, the US conducted “self-defence strikes against two unmanned aerial vehicles in a Houthi controlled area of Yemen that presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.” On Tuesday, the US shot down a ballistic missile and three drones launched from Yemen at the destroyer USS Carney. Three anti-ship missiles and three sea drones were also fired at the ship. Communications cables under the Red Sea were also cut this week, affecting 25 percent of data traffic flowing between Asia and Europe. The cause of the damage is as yet unknown. The Houthis have carried out more than 60 Red Sea attacks in recent months, with analysts assessing that the US coalition’s strikes at missile-launching sites are not having a deterrent effect.

What’s happened: After what had initially appeared to be a promising week of negotiations, talks between Israel and Hamas have now stalled.

• While Israel is understood to have agreed in principle to a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release of elderly, unwell, and female hostages, Hamas refused to provide a list of those who are still alive.
• While talks including a Hamas delegation continue in Cairo, Israel has not sent a delegation of negotiators given Hamas’s unsatisfactory response.
• Israeli officials said that Sinwar’s refusal to provide the required information stems from his “desire to set fire to the ground and to cause bloodshed during Ramadan.”
• It is still hoped that a ceasefire agreement can be reached by the end of the first weekend of Ramadan, but pathways to a deal appear increasingly limited, with the prospects of a breakthrough diminishing.
• On Sunday, a senior Hamas official claimed, “If Israel agrees to Hamas demands, which include the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza and increasing Humanitarian Aid, that would pave the way for a (truce) agreement within the next 24 to 48 hours”. Israel has not commented on this suggestion.
• An unnamed Hamas official has also told the Wall Street Journal that, “while there is slow progress on an agreement for a temporary ceasefire and hostage deal, it seems unlikely that it will be reached before Ramadan’s expected start on March 10, and instead may come to fruition by the first weekend of the Muslim holy month”.
• It has also been suggested by Egyptian and Qatari sources that there has been no contact from Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, for at least a week, which may be further hampering and slowing hostage release efforts.
• US Vice President, Kamala Harris, called yesterday for an “immediate ceasefire” given “the immense scale of suffering in Gaza”. While reiterating her desire to see hostages released and reunited with their families, she also condemned Israel for not doing enough to ease a “humanitarian catastrophe” in the current administration’s strongest comments since 7^th October.

Context:  While a ceasefire and hostage release deal remains possible, its likelihood is diminishing given Hamas’s intransigence and refusal to provide Israel with a list of living hostages.

• 130 hostages remain unaccounted for, with Israel saying that at least 29 were dead on 13^th February. Three hostages have been rescued by Israel’s security forces, 105 were released during a ceasefire in November, and four prior to that. Securing all hostages is Israel’s joint primary stated war aim along with destroying Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
• Fellow members of Israel’s war cabinet are said to have criticised Prime Minister Netanyahu for insisting on the names of surviving hostages as a precondition of negotiations. They argue that the list of hostages could have been discussed toward the end of the negotiations, as was the case in the previous deal.
• Senior Egyptian sources claim that both Egypt and Qatar are putting strong pressure on Hamas to provide the names of hostages to be released in a first round of releases.
• Egypt is also said to have made clear to Khalil al-Hayya, who is heading Hamas’s delegation, that it is difficult to hold talks and make progress when Hamas is split between its political leadership overseas and its leadership in Gaza.
• Egyptian, Qatari, and Israeli officials have suggested that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar is wilfully delaying a deal in the hope that an Israeli action in Rafah, Hamas’s last Gazan stronghold, would lead to a flare-up in the West Bank and among Israeli Arabs.  A senior Israeli official said that, “Sinwar prefers to escalate tensions in the Middle East, causing chaos and bloodshed on Ramadan, over the alternative of a six-week cease-fire and Humanitarian Aid that would significantly alleviate the suffering of Gaza’s local population”.
• Qatar is a longstanding supporter of Hamas, yet has also maintained an unofficial but productive relationship with Israel since at least 1996. Doha has frequently acted as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas, and played a critical role in mediating and brokering more recent negotiations along with Egypt.
• In these negotiations, Qatar and Egypt, have acted as a mutually acceptable touchpoint with strong oversight by the CIA’s Bill Burns. Both Israel and Hamas can advise of their negotiating position, as well as relaying messages between the two parties.
• The US remains deeply concerned by both Hamas’s holding of hostages, as well as the worsening humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip. By facilitating a ceasefire, it hopes to secure both the release of as many hostages as possible, as well as an increased flow of aid into the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: If fighting continues into Ramadan, it is likely that Hamas will attempt to escalate hostilities into the West Bank, as well as encourage Hezbollah to intensify its own attacks on Israel.

• Given their keenness to prevent further regional conflict, the US will almost certainly continue all sides to agree to a ceasefire. War Cabinet member Minister Gantz arrives in the US for talks with senior officials today. (For more detail, including Netanyahu’s opposition to this visit, see Israeli Media Summary below.)
• Defence Minister Gallant had previously set a deadline of March 10^th for hostages to be released. Failing that, he pledged that Israel would intensify operations in Rafah.

Screenshot: IDF Spokesperson’s Office

What’s happened: Following the death of dozens of Palestinians after a stampede broke out around an aid convoy west of Gaza City, the US has blocked an Algerian-sponsored statement at the United Nations Security Council which sought to blame Israel.

• While reports conflict, it appears that:
  • Before dawn yesterday morning, approximately 30 trucks containing aid entered the Gaza Strip to deliver food to the Rimal neighbourhood of Gaza City.
  • At approximately 4.40 AM, thousands of Gazans swarmed the trucks. Drone footage of the event shows some of the trucks attempting to drive through the crowds, presumably in an effort to extract themselves and deliver the aid they were carrying.
  • After a number of trucks were able to continue north, armed men opened fire on what remained of the convoy.
  • While the IDF has admitted that its troops did open fire, it says that this was only “when they encountered danger, when the mob moved toward it in a manner that endangered the force”.
  • The IDF also says that it “did not fire toward individuals seeking aid and we did not fire toward the humanitarian convoy from the ground nor from the air.”
  • It is being reported that at least 112 Gazans were killed in this incident, with approximately 760 being injured. However, as these figures originate from within the Hamas-run Palestinian Ministry of Health, their veracity is questionable.
  • The IDF’s initial inquiry into the incident has concluded its troops’ fire killed only 7 or 8 people and that the majority were killed in the chaos, not by shooting.
  • “The tanks were there to provide security for the trucks. Our aircraft gave the troops on the ground a full picture from above,” the IDF said.
  • “When the hundreds turned into thousands, the IDF complied with international law… Israel did not limit the quantity of Humanitarian Aid entering Gaza. We recognize the suffering of the Gaza residents.”
• In the aftermath of this event, much of the international community has reiterated calls for an immediate ceasefire and increased aid being allowed into the Gaza Strip.
• At the United Nations Security Council, Algeria sought to issue a statement which explicitly blamed Israel for this deadly incident. While supported by 14 out of 15 council members, it was blocked by the US.
• When asked why the US had not supported this statement, Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Robert Wood said: “We don’t have all the facts on the ground – that’s the problem.”
• He also said that in the face of contradictory reports, the US was trying to  establish facts, including regarding the “circumstances around how people died”.
• President Biden has also discussed this incident with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. According to a White House statement, they agreed that it “underscored the urgency of bringing negotiations to a close as soon as possible”.
• The White House has also called for this event to be “thoroughly investigated”.

Context: Israel will conduct a thorough investigation into an incident which further highlights the complexity of distributing aid to the Gazan people and the urgent necessity of forming a civilian infrastructure to prevent further incidents of this kind.

• There are also suggestions that plans are being considered to parachute aid in, or to bring it from the sea in the northern Gaza Strip, avoiding the need for road convoys. Even prior to yesterday’s incident, the US and Canadian governments were reported to be considering their own air-drops.
• The Jordanians, in cooperation with Israel, have been air-dropping aid since the beginning of the war. For example, on February 27^th, 160 packages were successfully delivered to the residents of southern Gaza.
• The UK FCDO yesterday confirmed it was providing Jordan and Bahrain with parachutes to enable further aid to be dropped. “Together with our international partners we will continue to get Humanitarian Aid to those most in need,” it said.
• Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) statistics show that 268,000 tonnes of Humanitarian Aid –  food, medical equipment, water, as well as shelter equipment – have been delivered on 14,545 aid trucks since the beginning of the war. 1246 water trucks have entered, ensuring 28.5 million litres of water a day.
• The aid enables 20 bakeries to currently operate across Gaza, providing 2.5 million bread rolls and pita breads a day.
• US and Qatari-brokered negotiations between Israel and Hamas aimed at securing a ceasefire and the release of hostages captured on 7^th October had been slowly progressing. However,  President Biden has indicated a concern that this incident will “complicate” negotiations.
• In a press conference, Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that Hamas has put up a “brick wall of delusional, unrealistic…demands”, seemingly pouring cold water on the possibility that an agreement leading to a ceasefire and hostage exchange is imminently reached.
• Hamas branded yesterday’s incident an “unprecedented war crime”, while the PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, referred to it as “an ugly massacre conducted by the Israeli occupation army on people who waited for aid trucks”

Looking ahead: While ceasefire negotiations are likely to continue, Thursday’s events risk prejudicing them against Israel and in Hamas’s favour.

• Combat operations will continue in the Gaza Strip. Israel is particularly vigilant in areas where despite previous IDF control, pockets of Hamas fighting cells remain able to carry out attacks.