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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated March 12, 2024

March 12th – Day 158 of the war: News in Brief

1. There are unconfirmed reports that the third most senior Hamas leader, Marwan Issa, was killed in an Israeli air strike, early Sunday morning. Speaking on Sunday night, IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari said that Issa was part of the terrorist triumvirate leadership, along with Deif and Sinwar. Hagari said: “On Saturday night, in a joint IDF-GSS operation, combat planes attacked an underground compound of the Hamas leadership in the central Gaza Strip in the Nuseirat area. The compound was used by two of the leaders. We are still studying the results of the attack and there is still no final confirmation.” In his statement, Hagari identified a second senior figure in the tunnel as Razi Abu Tama’a, Hamas’s arms chief and a former commander of its armed forces in central Gaza. Marwan Issa served as Mohammad Dief’s deputy, second in command of the Hamas military wing. Israeli analysts described him as a “brilliant strategic mind” and considered central to the planning of October 7th alongside Deif and Sinwar.  Hamas has yet to issue an official statement announcing his death. This could be due to the general destruction in the Strip and the difficulty in locating his body, or a deliberate Hamas ploy to not announce his loss. If his death is confirmed, it would make him the highest ranking target in the war so far, even more senior than Arouri, who was killed in Lebanon. It also sends a signal to Sinwar and Deif that Israeli intelligence is looking for them too.2. This morning, sirens have been heard in the north, both in the Golan and the Galilee near the Lebanon border. Israel is reporting that Hezbollah has launched over 100 rockets so far. Some of the rockets have been intercepted, whilst most fell in open areas. No injuries have been reported so far. In response, the IDF confirms that three rocket launchers that fired dozens of rockets towards northern Israel this morning were targeted with air strikes and destroyed. Overall, Hezbollah has fired over 2,500 rockets into Israel since October 7th, resulting in 17 Israelis killed. In response 239 Hezbollah fighters have been killed so far.3. On Sunday night the Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah targets in the Baalbek region, around 100 km north of the border. This is the second time the Israeli Air Force has targeted the area since the war begun. The first time was two weeks ago after an Israeli UAV was shot down over Lebanon. Lebanese sources reported strikes on two compounds belonging Hezbollah’s aerial force, which had planned and executed attacks against Israel.  The IDF spokesperson said that the strike was in retaliation for the UAVs that were launched onto the Golan Heights in the last few days.4. The first ship in a pilot programme carrying by sea has today set sail from the port of Larnaca in Cyprus. The Open Arms is carrying almost 200 tonnes of food, supplied by Cyprus, the UAE, and the NGO World Central Kitchen (WCK) and will dock on a WCK-built pier on the Gaza coast, south of Gaza City. Israeli officials say that WCK will then be responsible for distributing the food to Gazan civilians. WCK says it has another 500 tonnes of food ready in Cyprus for future deliveries. In announcing the maiden voyage, it said that deliveries by sea would enable aid to reach many more Gazans, but pushed for further land crossings to be opened, too. Elsewhere, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said yesterday that the process of the US delivering a huge shipment of flour to Gaza has started. The shipment, enough to feed 1.5 million Gazans for five months, was first mooted nearly two months ago, before being blocked by Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich, who cited UNRWA’s unsuitability to distribute it. The shipment is now set to be distributed in Gaza by the World Food Programme instead.5. A senior Israeli official said yesterday that a hostage deal “might be possible… under certain conditions”. Speaking to Ynet, the same official said that despite US warnings that it would constitute a “red line”, an Israeli operation in Rafah was likely. “An operation in Rafah will happen… the question is when – because there are many complexities here,” they said. With Hamas opting to stall and increase its demands for a deal, the Israeli Security Cabinet discussed empowering its negotiators with broader terms – an idea unanimously rejected by all cabinet members. Qatari media is reporting that CIA Director Burns, who met with Mossad head Barnea over the weekend, has explored the possibility of a brief cease-fire to facilitate further negotiations. Meanwhile, Israel is said to be weighing the idea of securing the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) assistance in administering Gaza if Hamas is removed from power. Israel media reports that Defence Minister Gallant has mentioned Commander of the General Intelligence Service Maj. Gen. Majed Faraj, a close associate of PA President Abbas as someone who might be heavily involved.6. Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Katz addressed the UN Security Council’s emergency session to discuss the report on Hamas’ sexual crimes during the October 7th massacre yesterday. “I am here on behalf of the women and girls who were raped, murdered and mutilated by Hamas murderers,” said Katz. Katz also demanded that the UN recognise Hamas as a terrorist organisation and exert all possible pressure to return the remaining hostages. “The United Nations has been silent regarding on the actions of Hamas for too long,” Katz said. “Over the past five months, since October 7, the United Nations has convened 41 times and has neither condemned nor denounced the brutal crimes of Hamas.” The UN report, authored by Pramila Patten, found “reasonable grounds” to conclude that Hamas committed rape and gang rape at multiple sites during the massacre, as well as “clear and convincing information” that hostages in Gaza were subject to “sexual violence including rape, sexualised torture, cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment.”7. Former French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, head of the UN’s independent Review Group examining the actions UNRWA on October 7th, began her visit to Israel yesterday. Visiting Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, before proceeding to Ramallah and Amman, Colonna will be shown evidence of illustrating the extent of Hamas penetration of the aid agency, Hamas’s use of UNRWA facilities, including schools and clinics, to store weapons and launch attacks, and its locating of terror tunnels in or near UNRWA facilities. Katz welcomed Colonna’s arrival and stressed that Israel is cooperating fully with the committee, established by UN Secretary General Guterres in the wake of Israeli revelations of UNRWA staff’s complicity in the Hamas massacre.

March 11, 2024

Ramadan begins with no breakthrough on hostage deal

What’s happened: As Ramadan begins, there is still no breakthrough in US-Qatari-brokered negotiations regarding a hostage release/cease fire in Gaza.

  • It was revealed on Sunday that Mossad Director Barnea met on Friday in Jordan with CIA Director Burns, who is holding a series of meetings in the region to try to prevent the negotiations over a hostage deal from collapsing.
  • The Prime Minister’s Office released a statement, saying of their meeting that “At this stage, Hamas is holding to its position as if it was uninterested in a deal and is striving to ignite the region during Ramadan at the expense of the Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip. It should be emphasised that the contacts and cooperation with the mediators are ongoing in an effort to narrow the gaps and advance agreements.”
  • There are growing suggestions that Qatar could place more leverage on Hamas’s leadership. Among the threats could be threatening to expel top Hamas political bureau officials from Doha should they fail to persuade the movement’s leadership in Gaza to come to an agreement, or cutting off access to finances.
  • In a bid to help ensure calm in Israel and the West Bank over Ramadan, Shin Bet Director Bar visited Bahrain and Jordan last week, for talks with officials there.
  • On Saturday night, President Biden offered his harshest criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu since the beginning of the war. Netanyahu was “hurting Israel more than helping Israel. He has a right to defend Israel, but he must, he must, he must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of the actions taken.”
  • In response, Netanyahu said he didn’t “know exactly what the president meant… if he meant by that that I was pursuing private policy against the wish of the majority of Israelis and that this was hurting the interests of Israel, then he is wrong on both counts.”
  • Lord Cameron, the British Foreign Secretary, welcomed the US plan to improve the distribution of in Gaza by building a pier off the Gazan coast to allow for maritime delivery of aid, rather than relying on overland truck convoys and airdrops. Cameron confirmed that the British government had been involved in with it “from the start”, and would be “helping with the pre-screening of aid”.
  • He also called on Israel to allow the port of Ashdod to be used to transfer more aid to the Gaza Strip while the US was completing this pier.

Context:  Israeli officials believe that Hamas delayed and stalled on negotiations in a deliberate bid to have Ramadan begin with no agreement reached.

  • It hopes that it can succeed in inciting violence to such an extent that Israeli attention and resources are diverted from Gaza. Friday’s terror attack in the West Bank, in which seven Israeli soldiers were wounded, indicates the scale of the task facing security services in preventing an escalation during the holy month.
  • With the Biden Administration agreeing that the lack of a deal is due to Hamas intransigence and not Israeli inflexibility, the Israeli War Cabinet is not minded to empower Israel’s negotiators to negotiate with broader terms.
  • Gaza’s already precarious humanitarian situation has significantly worsened since 7th October, with approximately 80 percent of its population estimated to be internally displaced. Overland convoys of trucks are insufficient, and both the US and Arab partners have recently resorted to airdropping food and medical aid into the coastal enclave.
  • By opening a maritime corridor between Larnaca in Cyprus and an artificial pier off the coast of Gaza, it is hoped that this humanitarian situation can be partially alleviated.
  • Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant has said that Israel supports the pier plan and that it could help topple Hamas from power in Gaza: “The process is designed to bring aid directly to the residents and thus continue the collapse of Hamas’s rule in Gaza.”
  • He also said that the establishment of this corridor would “ensure that supplies reach here for those who need them and not for those who don’t”.
  • Hamas has repeated appropriated aid intended for the Gaza Strip’s civilian population. Israel has long pursued a policy of caution when allowing its entry to the coastal enclave. This requirement to balance security with an obligation to facilitate aid distribution has compounded the coastal enclave’s precarious humanitarian situation since the outbreak of war in October:
  • An average of 95 trucks carry aid entered the Gaza Strip daily between October 2023 and February 2024, down from approximately 500 before the 7th October attacks. Approximately two million Gazans are estimated to be reliant on the UN for aid provision.
  • The Israeli government has responded to criticisms that it is not allowing enough aid into the coastal enclave by saying that “there is no limit to the amount of aid that can enter Gaza”, and stressing that it can facilitate the entry of more trucks.
  • Israel maintains that aid organisations and Hamas are to blame for the Gaza Strip’s humanitarian situation, and the real issues lie with how aid is being distributed once it arrives in the coastal enclave.
  • Since at least November 2023, reports have emerged of gunmen looting aid convoys. Israel says these gunmen are Hamas members, and points to their actions as one of the reasons why Gazan civilians have been unable to access aid.

Looking ahead: There remains hope that a hostage deal can still be reached during Ramadan.

  • This pier will be built by the US Army and is expected to take six to eight weeks to complete. The US has also said that Israel would secure this pier.
  • If a deal fails to be reached, Israeli officials continue to insist that an operation in Rafah remains essential in order to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities and its capacity to re-arm

March 8, 2024

Biden announces Gaza pier in state of the union

What’s happened: In his State of the Union address, President Biden said the US military would establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the Gaza coast to help deliver .

  • The emergency mission is to build a pier that would be able to receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine and temporary shelters and, according to Biden, “would enable a massive increase in the amount of humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza every day.” The pier will take a number of weeks to be built.
  • In his speech, Biden stressed that there would be no US boots on the ground. While urging that the humanitarian situation be addressed, Biden also reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself, and emphasised that the crisis began with “Hamas’ massacre”. “The 1,200 innocent people – women and girls, men and boys – slaughtered, many enduring sexual violence. The deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust; 250 hostages taken.”
  • “Israel has a right to go after Hamas. Hamas could end this conflict today by releasing the hostages, laying down arms, and surrendering those responsible for October 7th. Israel has an added burden because Hamas hides and operates among the civilian population. But Israel also has a fundamental responsibility to protect innocent civilians in Gaza.”
  • Biden also discussed the destruction in Gaza, calling it heartbreaking. “This war has taken a greater toll on innocent civilians than all previous wars in Gaza combined. More than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed.  Most of whom are not Hamas. Nearly 2 million more Palestinians under bombardment or displaced. Homes destroyed, neighbourhoods in rubble, cities in ruin. Families without food, water, medicine.”
  • Biden also stated the importance of humanitarian assistance to the citizens of Gaza. “To the leadership of Israel, I say this: humanitarian assistance cannot be a secondary consideration or a bargaining chip. Protecting and saving innocent lives has to be a priority.”
  • He added “as we look to the future, the only real solution is a two-state solution.”
  • Reports suggest that as Ramadan approaches, the chances for a hostage deal remain slim.
  • While Israel has responded positively to the blueprint put forward by the US, Egypt and Qatar, Hamas has reportedly increased its demands to include a complete IDF withdrawal from Gaza and a higher number of prisoners released.  Official US sources said the deal is stalled because Hamas is refusing to release sick and elderly hostages.
  • This week, in an attempt to calm tensions in the Arab world and ensure reaches Gaza via alternative routes, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s military secretary Major General Gil secretly visited the UAE.
  • Asked to by Israel, the US, UK and France submitted an official request for an emergency UN Security Council session on special representative Pramila Patten’s report accusing Hamas of sexual crimes on October 7 and beyond.

Context: Biden’s speech comes in the context of increased tension between Israel and the US regarding the delivery of to the Strip. Cabinet minister Gantz, who this week visited Washington and London, came under criticism for Israel’s response to this issue as well as the IDF’s plan to operate in Rafah.

  • The increase of humanitarian aid reaching the Gazan population has been a repeated concern on the administration.
  • In joint operations with Jordan, Egypt, and France, the US has intensified its air-drops of aid into the Gaza Strip, yesterday dropping 28,000 meals, bringing the total dropped this week to 112,896 meals.
  • The US hopes that by increasing the total tonnage of aid through the new sea route and with air drops, more aid can reach the population, overcoming widespread looting and Hamas obstruction. The US will continue to act in conjunction with Israel to ensure the latter’s security needs are met in the aid delivery process.
  • Yesterday, the UN began to assess using an Israeli military road bordering the Gaza Strip to deliver aid into the territory. Israel has consistently maintained that it is not responsible for aid bottlenecks, and that the UN has failed to keep pace with Israel’s checking and clearing of aid trucks.
  • Senior defence officials have said in closed-door meetings that looting aid in the Gaza Strip won’t stop until trucks carrying humanitarian aid entering Gaza are protected by armed officials. (For more, see Israeli Media Summary below.)
  • The basic formula for a deal presented during meetings in Paris and Cairo includes different stages:
    • The first stage would include Hamas freeing about 35 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel. This would be alongside a six-week ceasefire, during which talks would be held about freeing the remaining hostages.
    • Stage two would include the return of the rest of the hostages in exchange for a full IDF withdrawal from Gaza Strip although Israel has not committed to this.
  • Gaps remain regarding the number of “heavyweight” prisoners Israel will release. Hamas is demanding the first stage include the release of about 100 prisoners who have murdered Israelis, as well as the nature of the transition to a permanent cease-fire and the end of the war, and the number of Palestinians who will return to northern Gaza. Israel is willing to allow women and children while Hamas want all residents.
  • Without a deal and a pause in the war, there is a fear of escalation surrounding the Temple Mount during Ramdan. The site has traditionally been a scene of tension which could lead to protests in the West Bank and wider Arab world.

Looking ahead: The Turkish Red Crescent will today send its largest aid package yet to Gaza. 3,000 tonnes of food, medicine and equipment left for the Egyptian port of Al-Arish yesterday and will be transported to Rafah in 200 trucks.

  • CIA Director William Burns is in the Middle East to try to create a breakthrough on a hostage-release deal. Burns arrived in Qatar yesterday after a secret visit to Cairo.
  • If a deal for a hostage release and a ceasefire is not reached before Ramadan, the policy challenge over a ground operation in Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah in central Gaza and / or Rafah will increase.

March 7, 2024

March 7th – Day 153 of the war: News in Brief

1. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak joined a London meeting yesterday between Israeli war cabinet Minister Gantz and UK National Security Adviser Sir Tim Barrow. Gantz’s office said he thanked the UK “for its efforts on behalf of Israel’s security and stressed the importance of continued international pressure on Hamas to secure the release of the hostages.” Gantz also thanked the UK “for its efforts to curb the threat posed by the Iranian axis of terror in the Red Sea and in the region more broadly.” Earlier in the day, Gantz met with UK Foreign Secretary Cameron. “We discussed efforts to secure a humanitarian pause to get the hostages safely home and lifesaving supplies into Gaza,” Cameron said. “I once again pressed Israel to increase the flow of aid. We are still not seeing improvements on the ground. This must change.” Like his visit to Washington this week, Gantz’s London trip was not sanctioned by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

2. The New York Times reports increasing pessimism regarding the prospects for securing a hostage release/ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas before Ramadan. Discussions look to have stalled over Hamas insistence on a permanent ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and the return to northern Gaza of residents displaced by fighting. Israel has already agreed to a “redeployment” of forces within Gaza, and the return of women and children to the north. According to US reports, Washington is considering pressing Qatar to threaten to expel Hamas officials from Doha if they fail to agree to a hostage release. President Biden said this week that a deal was in Hamas’s hands, while at the UN, the US revised language in a draft Security Council resolution to back “an immediate ceasefire of roughly six-weeks in Gaza together with the release of all hostages.”

3. In coordination with Israel, the UN will today assess using an Israeli military road bordering the Gaza Strip to deliver aid into the territory. The US also made its second airdrop of aid into Gaza yesterday in a joint operation with Jordan, Egypt, and France. Also yesterday, Israel’s Channel 13 reported that Israel will the for the first time allow to enter Gaza via sea. The UAE will finance the aid shipments, which will be sent from there to Cyprus, for inspection by Israeli officials. Sources suggest the first aid ship will sail from Cyprus in the coming days.

4. The IDF has named a soldier killed in fighting in Gaza yesterday as Staff Sgt. David Sasson, 21. 12 other soldiers were wounded, five seriously, when Hamas gunmen in the Hamad neighbourhood of Khan Yunis opened fire. Another soldier was critically wounded yesterday in a battle in another part of the Strip. Elsewhere in Gaza, IDF operations continue in the Hamad Town neighbourhood of Khan Yunis. Soldiers raided several sites in the neighbourhood, locating a weapons manufacturing plant, explosive devices and military equipment, the IDF says. Troops also located several tunnel shafts, and destroyed a number of Hamas offices in the area.

5. The state commission of inquiry tasked with investigating the circumstances that led to the death of 45 men and boys attending the 2021 Lag B’Omer festival on Mt. Meron published its report yesterday. It found that Prime Minister Netanyahu, former Public Security Minister Ohana, Police Commissioner Shabtai and former Religious Services Minister Avitan all bore personal responsibility for the disaster. In response, the Likud accused the inquiry of being a politically motivated attack by the previous Bennett-Lapid government. As well as being criticised by Lapid, who called for Netanyahu to resign, this response was attacked from within the Likud itself. Economy Minister Barkat said: “It is a grave mistake to turn the commission of inquiry into the Mt. Meron disaster into a political event.” Likud MK Eli Dellal wrote on X: “If you have nothing smart/good/leader-like to say, it’s best not to say anything.” Likud MK Tally Gotliv said: “I am a Likud member and I do not agree with the Likud’s infuriating response to the Meron commission’s conclusions.” Ohana, also from the Likud and now the Speaker of the Knesset, accepted the findings of the report and said the catastrophe resulted from “a long-standing failure in organising the event and the infrastructure of the place.”

6. The Shin Bet intelligence service has followed the IDF in beginning its own operational review into the October 7th massacres and the events leading up to them. The review will take several weeks – a possibly months – and will consider the handling of intelligence received on the evening of October 6th indicating a possible attack. Shin Bet head Ronen Bar took responsibility for intelligence failures shortly after the event, saying “the responsibility resides with me for our failure to produce a satisfactory warning.”

7. For the first time, Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels have resulted in fatalities to crew. Three crew members of the Barbados-flagged True Confidence died after a Houthi missile strike hit the vessel yesterday. The government of the Philippines has confirmed that two of its citizens were among those killed. The news comes days after the Belize-flagged cargo ship, Rubymar, became the first vessel to sink after being hit by Houthi missiles. Also yesterday, according to US CENTCOM, the US conducted “self-defence strikes against two unmanned aerial vehicles in a Houthi controlled area of Yemen that presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.” On Tuesday, the US shot down a ballistic missile and three drones launched from Yemen at the destroyer USS Carney. Three anti-ship missiles and three sea drones were also fired at the ship. Communications cables under the Red Sea were also cut this week, affecting 25 percent of data traffic flowing between Asia and Europe. The cause of the damage is as yet unknown. The Houthis have carried out more than 60 Red Sea attacks in recent months, with analysts assessing that the US coalition’s strikes at missile-launching sites are not having a deterrent effect.

March 6, 2024

Netanyahu overrules Ben Gvir on Temple Mount restrictions

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced that there will be no new restrictions on the access to Jerusalem’s al-Aqsa Mosque for Muslim Arab citizens of Israel during Ramadan.

  • The decision was made at a meeting chaired by the prime minister and attended by Defence Minister Gallant, Foreign Minister Katz, war cabinet Minister Eisenkot, National Security Minister Ben Gvir, and representatives of all security agencies.
  • In line with the model of previous years, numbers will be determined purely by the site’s capacity and the police and security services’ ability to maintain calm and order.
  • West Bank Palestinians will also be permitted to visit, but in reduced numbers from previous years. They will be subject to age restrictions and Shin Bet assessment.
  • The situation will be reassessed on a weekly basis. If the first few weeks of the holy month proceed peacefully, numbers may even be increased in subsequent weeks.
  • Netanyahu said “Israel’s policy was and always will be to maintain freedom of worship for all faiths. That is how we acted during Ramadan, of course, and it is how we will act now as well. We will do everything to maintain freedom of worship on the Temple Mount while aptly providing for security and safety needs and enabling the Muslim public to celebrate the holiday.”
  • United Arab List Chairman Mansour Abbas welcomed the policy, saying: “I congratulate the prime minister for the decision to permit freedom of worship to Muslims at al-Aqsa Mosque. I call on the Arab public to exercise its right and hold prayers during this holy month, while obeying the law and maintaining public order.”
  • Ben Gvir responded angrily to the decision, saying that “to allow visits to the Temple Mount during Ramadan similar to past years, in contrast to my position and the police’s position, shows that Netanyahu and the small cabinet think that nothing happened on October 7. This decision endangers Israel’s citizens and could give Hamas a victory picture.”

Context: In reaching the decision, Netanyahu has sided with the military and security establishments over Ben Gvir, who had demanded unprecedented restrictions on Arab citizens of Israel’s visitation rights.

  • The two attempted to craft a joint statement after the decision was reached, but were unable to agree on a text.
  • When reports of Ben Gvir’s proposed policy surfaced last month, initial suggestions were that Netanyahu was inclined to side with the national security minister, though the attorney general warned that blanket bans on Israel’s Muslim citizens was likely illegal.
  • Israeli Police Commissioner Shabtai, while acknowledging the security challenges, ultimately sided with the military and intelligence establishments over Ben Gvir. In response to Netanyahu’s decision, the force said that the 50,000-60,000 likely visitors to the Temple Mount in the first weeks were manageable, if “borderline”.
  • Restrictions on West Bank residents on the grounds of age have been implemented in previous years, with younger men more likely to incite violence and therefore generally prevented from entering the compound. In more peaceful times, the Jerusalem municipality often laid on buses to help West Bank Palestinians travel to the Temple Mount. This is highly unlikely to be repeated this year.
  • Ramadan is always a time of increased tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank. The war in Gaza, coupled with Hamas’s persistent attempts to incite around the issue of the Temple Mount, have made this year a particular challenge for security, police, and military officials.
  • Gallant recently sent a document to top security officials in which he warned about the knock-on effect of a security flare-up in Jerusalem and the West Bank during Ramadan on the war in Gaza. “An escalation will make it difficult for us to concentrate efforts and carry out the IDF’s tasks to achieve the war’s objectives because of the need to divert troops to Judea and Samaria and other sectors,” he said.
  • Gallant’s document recommended following the security establishment’s line on entry to the Temple Mount and addressed “irresponsible statements” by Israeli political figures, a likely reference to Ben Gvir.
  • Hamas has repeatedly tried to link its campaign of violence and terror to al-Aqsa, Islam’s third holiest site. It named its October 7th operation “al-Aqsa Flood”, and has traditionally spread inciting disinformation over Israeli actions there.
  • Hamas Politburo Chair, Ismail Haniyeh, called last week for Muslims to march on Al Aqsa on the first night of Ramadan. “The siege of Al-Aqsa and the siege of Gaza are one and the same,” he said in a televised speech in Beirut.
  • With the lead-up to Ramadan coinciding with Hamas’s stalling and inflexibility on the terms of a hostage/ceasefire deal, Israeli officials estimate that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar – seemingly out of contact with the rest of Hamas’s leadership – prefers to delay a deal and to instead seek to exploit tensions during the holy month to spark a regional conflagration.
  • From October 7th onwards, Hamas has sought to incite Arab citizens of Israel to join the fight against Israel. Not only has this failed to materialise, but polls have shown Arab citizens rejecting Hamas en masse, and reporting record levels of identification with the Israeli state.

Looking ahead: Ramadan begins on Sunday night. The police will now prepare for a major operation, with thousands of officers deployed on the Temple Mount, in the alleyways leading to it, across the Old City and East Jerusalem, as well as at the entrances to the city.

  • Close attention will be paid to social media, with police and intelligence officers scanning channels for signs of fake news or disinformation designed to increase tensions.

March 5, 2024

March 5th – Day 151 of the war: News in Brief

1. Reports continue to suggest the breakdown of Qatari-mediated negotiations between Israel and Hamas. While Israel requires a list of living hostages captured on 7th October, Hamas has now claimed that it is unable to do so as it does not itself know who is still alive and where they are. Speaking to the BBC, Hamas Politburo member, Basim Naim said: “it is now impossible to know exactly who is still alive and who has been killed because of the Israeli bombardment or who has been killed because of starvation because of the Israeli blockade… [the hostages] are in different areas with different groups and therefore we have called for a ceasefire to be able to collect the data.” It has also been reported that Hamas chief, Yahya Sinwar, has not been contactable for over a week further complicating negotiation attempts.

2. US Vice President, Kamala Harris, met with Israeli War Cabinet Minister, Benny Gantz, in Washington DC yesterday. While the Vice President “expressed her deep concern about the humanitarian conditions in Gaza”, she has also praised Israel’s “constructive approach” in ongoing hostage negotiations. It is understood that while not authorised by Netanyahu or supported by the Israeli Embassy in DC, Gantz’s trip is an attempt to smooth increasingly strained US-Israeli relations as the Biden administration’s frustration over Gaza’s humanitarian situation mounts. While the US administration reiterated its support for Israel and its right to self-defence, it also called for a “credible and implementable humanitarian plan” given the increasing likelihood of an assault on Rafah if attempts to reach a ceasefire fail.

3. The Israeli Air Force has shot down what it described as “a suspicious aerial target” which entered Israel from , believed to have been a drone. Iraqi Shia militias which have close links to Iran and are known to operate in have previously attempted to launch drone attacks at Israeli communities in the Golan Heights. This attack is yet to be claimed or attributed, though. Visiting Beirut, US Special Envoy, Amos Hochstein, highlighted the importance of a diplomatic solution to current tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border. “A diplomatic solution is the only way to end the current hostilities…[and achieve] a lasting fair security arrangement between Lebanon and Israel,”  he said. He also stressed that a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah was insufficient. Yesterday, a Thai farm worker was killed and seven others injured by a Hezbollah anti-tank fired at the border community of Margaliot. The IDF responded with artillery fire.

4. IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari yesterday published the names of three more UNRWA employees who participated in the October 7th attack. This brings the total number of UNRWA employees accused by Israel of direct participation to 15. Recordings were also released illustrating the barbarity of the employees’ conduct during the massacre. “We have female hostages, I captured one!” says Yousef al-Hawajara, a Hamas terrorist the IDF says worked as a teacher at a UNRWA school in Deir al-Balah. Al-Hawajara is also heard saying he “saw the sights… They shot them in the eyes…” Hagari said that another recording shows a UNRWA-affiliated terrorist saying he had captured a “sabaya,” a term meaning sex slave used by ISIS jihadists. The IDF Spokesperson’s Office says about 450 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists are employed by UNRWA. Israel has today criticised the EU Commission for its announcement last Friday that it is to give the agency 50 million euros.

5. The UN yesterday released its official report on atrocities committed by Hamas in the course of the October 7th massacre. The report confirms widespread sexual assault during the attack, including proof of rape, rape of dead bodies, naked and bound women being shot at the scene of the Nova music festival, and genital mutilation of bodies. Pramila Patten, the UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, also said that there was “clear and convincing information that sexual violence including rape, sexualised torture, cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment” of hostages being held in Gaza. However, the UN failed to ascribe the widespread sexual violence to Hamas specifically, on the grounds that members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other Gazans participated in October 7th. Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz called Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan back to Jerusalem for consultations on an Israeli response to what he called an “attempt to silence the grave UN report about the acts of mass rape that were committed by Hamas and its helpers on October 7.” Katz also accused UN Secretary General Guterres of “acting to soften the serious report that he himself ordered on the sexual offences of Hamas, trying to keep Hamas from being held responsible…”

6. Three Arab-Israeli MKs met yesterday in Amman with Jordan’s King Abdullah. Ayman Odeh, head of the Hadash-Ta’al list, Ta’al chairman Ahmad Tibi, and Hadash MK Youssef Atauna discussed with Abdullah concerns that tensions over Jerusalem’s Holy Sites, exacerbated by the war in Gaza, could erupt during Ramadan. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Israel Police head Kobi Shabtai, and Shin Ben head Ronen Bar met on Sunday to discuss security provisions for the Temple Mount during the Muslim holy month. National Security Minister Ben Gvir has proposed unprecedented restrictions on Arab-Israelis’ access to the site, but lacks support from fellow security cabinet members and is opposed by the security and military establishments. An Israeli Police statement over the weekend stressed the force would “continue to do everything in its power to maintain the balance between freedom of worship and public peace and security.”

March 4, 2024

Ceasefire negotiations stall

What’s happened: After what had initially appeared to be a promising week of negotiations, talks between Israel and Hamas have now stalled.

  • While Israel is understood to have agreed in principle to a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release of elderly, unwell, and female hostages, Hamas refused to provide a list of those who are still alive.
  • While talks including a Hamas delegation continue in Cairo, Israel has not sent a delegation of negotiators given Hamas’s unsatisfactory response.
  • Israeli officials said that Sinwar’s refusal to provide the required information stems from his “desire to set fire to the ground and to cause bloodshed during Ramadan.”
  • It is still hoped that a ceasefire agreement can be reached by the end of the first weekend of Ramadan, but pathways to a deal appear increasingly limited, with the prospects of a breakthrough diminishing.
  • On Sunday, a senior Hamas official claimed, “If Israel agrees to Hamas demands, which include the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza and increasing , that would pave the way for a (truce) agreement within the next 24 to 48 hours”. Israel has not commented on this suggestion.
  • An unnamed Hamas official has also told the Wall Street Journal that, “while there is slow progress on an agreement for a temporary ceasefire and hostage deal, it seems unlikely that it will be reached before Ramadan’s expected start on March 10, and instead may come to fruition by the first weekend of the Muslim holy month”.
  • It has also been suggested by Egyptian and Qatari sources that there has been no contact from Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, for at least a week, which may be further hampering and slowing hostage release efforts.
  • US Vice President, Kamala Harris, called yesterday for an “immediate ceasefire” given “the immense scale of suffering in Gaza”. While reiterating her desire to see hostages released and reunited with their families, she also condemned Israel for not doing enough to ease a “humanitarian catastrophe” in the current administration’s strongest comments since 7th October.

Context:  While a ceasefire and hostage release deal remains possible, its likelihood is diminishing given Hamas’s intransigence and refusal to provide Israel with a list of living hostages.

  • 130 hostages remain unaccounted for, with Israel saying that at least 29 were dead on 13th February. Three hostages have been rescued by Israel’s security forces, 105 were released during a ceasefire in November, and four prior to that. Securing all hostages is Israel’s joint primary stated war aim along with destroying Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
  • Fellow members of Israel’s war cabinet are said to have criticised Prime Minister Netanyahu for insisting on the names of surviving hostages as a precondition of negotiations. They argue that the list of hostages could have been discussed toward the end of the negotiations, as was the case in the previous deal.
  • Senior Egyptian sources claim that both Egypt and Qatar are putting strong pressure on Hamas to provide the names of hostages to be released in a first round of releases.
  • Egypt is also said to have made clear to Khalil al-Hayya, who is heading Hamas’s delegation, that it is difficult to hold talks and make progress when Hamas is split between its political leadership overseas and its leadership in Gaza.
  • Egyptian, Qatari, and Israeli officials have suggested that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar is wilfully delaying a deal in the hope that an Israeli action in Rafah, Hamas’s last Gazan stronghold, would lead to a flare-up in the West Bank and among Israeli Arabs.  A senior Israeli official said that, “Sinwar prefers to escalate tensions in the Middle East, causing chaos and bloodshed on Ramadan, over the alternative of a six-week cease-fire and that would significantly alleviate the suffering of Gaza’s local population”.
  • Qatar is a longstanding supporter of Hamas, yet has also maintained an unofficial but productive relationship with Israel since at least 1996. Doha has frequently acted as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas, and played a critical role in mediating and brokering more recent negotiations along with Egypt.
  • In these negotiations, Qatar and Egypt, have acted as a mutually acceptable touchpoint with strong oversight by the CIA’s Bill Burns. Both Israel and Hamas can advise of their negotiating position, as well as relaying messages between the two parties.
  • The US remains deeply concerned by both Hamas’s holding of hostages, as well as the worsening humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip. By facilitating a ceasefire, it hopes to secure both the release of as many hostages as possible, as well as an increased flow of aid into the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: If fighting continues into Ramadan, it is likely that Hamas will attempt to escalate hostilities into the West Bank, as well as encourage Hezbollah to intensify its own attacks on Israel.

  • Given their keenness to prevent further regional conflict, the US will almost certainly continue all sides to agree to a ceasefire. War Cabinet member Minister Gantz arrives in the US for talks with senior officials today. (For more detail, including Netanyahu’s opposition to this visit, see Israeli Media Summary below.)
  • Defence Minister Gallant had previously set a deadline of March 10th for hostages to be released. Failing that, he pledged that Israel would intensify operations in Rafah.

March 1, 2024

US blocks UN Security Council statement blaming Israel for Gaza aid stampede

Screenshot: IDF Spokesperson’s Office

What’s happened: Following the death of dozens of Palestinians after a stampede broke out around an aid convoy west of Gaza City, the US has blocked an Algerian-sponsored statement at the United Nations Security Council which sought to blame Israel.

  • While reports conflict, it appears that:
    • Before dawn yesterday morning, approximately 30 trucks containing aid entered the Gaza Strip to deliver food to the Rimal neighbourhood of Gaza City.
    • At approximately 4.40 AM, thousands of Gazans swarmed the trucks. Drone footage of the event shows some of the trucks attempting to drive through the crowds, presumably in an effort to extract themselves and deliver the aid they were carrying.
    • After a number of trucks were able to continue north, armed men opened fire on what remained of the convoy.
    • While the IDF has admitted that its troops did open fire, it says that this was only “when they encountered danger, when the mob moved toward it in a manner that endangered the force”.
    • The IDF also says that it “did not fire toward individuals seeking aid and we did not fire toward the humanitarian convoy from the ground nor from the air.”
    • It is being reported that at least 112 Gazans were killed in this incident, with approximately 760 being injured. However, as these figures originate from within the Hamas-run Palestinian Ministry of Health, their veracity is questionable.
    • The IDF’s initial inquiry into the incident has concluded its troops’ fire killed only 7 or 8 people and that the majority were killed in the chaos, not by shooting.
    • “The tanks were there to provide security for the trucks. Our aircraft gave the troops on the ground a full picture from above,” the IDF said.
    • “When the hundreds turned into thousands, the IDF complied with international law… Israel did not limit the quantity of entering Gaza. We recognize the suffering of the Gaza residents.”
  • In the aftermath of this event, much of the international community has reiterated calls for an immediate ceasefire and increased aid being allowed into the Gaza Strip.
  • At the United Nations Security Council, Algeria sought to issue a statement which explicitly blamed Israel for this deadly incident. While supported by 14 out of 15 council members, it was blocked by the US.
  • When asked why the US had not supported this statement, Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Robert Wood said: “We don’t have all the facts on the ground – that’s the problem.”
  • He also said that in the face of contradictory reports, the US was trying to  establish facts, including regarding the “circumstances around how people died”.
  • President Biden has also discussed this incident with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. According to a White House statement, they agreed that it “underscored the urgency of bringing negotiations to a close as soon as possible”.
  • The White House has also called for this event to be “thoroughly investigated”.

Context: Israel will conduct a thorough investigation into an incident which further highlights the complexity of distributing aid to the Gazan people and the urgent necessity of forming a civilian infrastructure to prevent further incidents of this kind.

  • There are also suggestions that plans are being considered to parachute aid in, or to bring it from the sea in the northern Gaza Strip, avoiding the need for road convoys. Even prior to yesterday’s incident, the US and Canadian governments were reported to be considering their own air-drops.
  • The Jordanians, in cooperation with Israel, have been air-dropping aid since the beginning of the war. For example, on February 27th, 160 packages were successfully delivered to the residents of southern Gaza.
  • The UK FCDO yesterday confirmed it was providing Jordan and Bahrain with parachutes to enable further aid to be dropped. “Together with our international partners we will continue to get to those most in need,” it said.
  • Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) statistics show that 268,000 tonnes of –  food, medical equipment, water, as well as shelter equipment – have been delivered on 14,545 aid trucks since the beginning of the war. 1246 water trucks have entered, ensuring 28.5 million litres of water a day.
  • The aid enables 20 bakeries to currently operate across Gaza, providing 2.5 million bread rolls and pita breads a day.
  • US and Qatari-brokered negotiations between Israel and Hamas aimed at securing a ceasefire and the release of hostages captured on 7th October had been slowly progressing. However,  President Biden has indicated a concern that this incident will “complicate” negotiations.
  • In a press conference, Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that Hamas has put up a “brick wall of delusional, unrealistic…demands”, seemingly pouring cold water on the possibility that an agreement leading to a ceasefire and hostage exchange is imminently reached.
  • Hamas branded yesterday’s incident an “unprecedented war crime”, while the PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, referred to it as “an ugly massacre conducted by the Israeli occupation army on people who waited for aid trucks”

Looking ahead: While ceasefire negotiations are likely to continue, Thursday’s events risk prejudicing them against Israel and in Hamas’s favour.

  • Combat operations will continue in the Gaza Strip. Israel is particularly vigilant in areas where despite previous IDF control, pockets of Hamas fighting cells remain able to carry out attacks.

February 29, 2024

Hamas chief calls for march on Al Aqsa in Ramadan

What’s happened: Hamas Politburo Chair, Ismail Haniyeh, has called for Muslims to march on Al Aqsa on the first night of Ramadan this year while claiming “flexibility” on ongoing hostage negotiations with Israel.

  • In a televised speech delivered in Beirut, Haniyeh claimed:
    • “The siege of Al-Aqsa and the siege of Gaza are one and the same”.
    • Hamas was “showing flexibility in ceasefire negotiations”.
    • It would not fall for US and Israeli “political traps”, and that it was ready to continue fighting if necessary.
  • Haniyeh also called for the Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” members including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various Iraqi Shia militias to escalate their attacks against Israel.

Context: Hamas continues to make the connection to Al Aqsa, (the Temple Mount) in an effort to encourage others to join their offensive against Israel. Despite ongoing attacks from Hezbollah in the north, in large this has not materialised.

  • However, according to Channel 12 News it will be the Israeli war cabinet not National Security Minister Ben Gvir that will determine policy regarding access to the Temple Mount during Ramadan.
  • The war cabinet are not expected to impose restrictions on Israeli Arabs access to the site. Instead they will allow the police to decide the number of worshippers who will be allowed into the compound based exclusively on space and security  considerations. Individual restrictions will only be imposed on the basis of intelligence, as was done in the past.
  • Talks in Qatar have continued this week. If Hamas is genuinely showing  “flexibility” this could be seen as vindication of the Israeli government’s stance to increase the pressure on Hamas militarily to secure better terms to a deal.
  • Reports in the Arab media has suggested that the sides have begun to discuss the practical details of a deal. For example, they have discussed the number of tents that are to be delivered to the Gaza Strip, how they will be brought in and where they will be pitched.
  • For the first time, Hamas has indicated a willingness to consider allowing for a temporary ceasefire and internal redeployment of Israeli troops outside of the Gaza Strip’s main population centres in.
  • Hamas’s previous insistence that the IDF fully withdraws from the Gaza Strip and agree to a permanent ceasefire had previously proven to be one of the most significant barriers to talks progressing given Israel’s stated war aims of destroying the group and bringing home all hostages captured on 7th October.
  • The current proposed temporary ceasefire is intended to last for up to six weeks, and President Biden is understood to be optimistic that an agreement can be reached in time for the start of Ramadan.
  • Hamas’s other terms are understood to include the IDF allowing internally displaced Gazans to return to their homes, increased aid provision, and the release of a number of high-profile Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are terror convicts.
  • Hamas continues to demand the release of ‘heavyweight Palestinian prisoners’ guilty of murder, including Marwan Barghouti. Given Barghouti’s prominence and leadership of Fatah’s Tanzim during the Second Intifada, and the fact he is serving five life sentences, Israel is unlikely to agree to release him.
  • Meanwhile, the IDF continues its combat operations in the Gaza Strip while maintaining a high level of readiness on its northern border in the face of escalation Hezbollah aggression.
  • In recent statements, the IDF has announced its success in destroying “dozens of kilometres of Hamas terror tunnels in Gaza”, as well as how “terrorist cells” and “terrorist infrastructure” are being degraded and destroyed in Zaytun and Khan Yunis.
  • In cooperation with Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt, France, and the USA have airdropped aid including food and medical equipment to Khan Yunis residents as well as the Jordanian Field Hospital.
  • Israel continues to insist that there is no limit to the amount of aid that can enter Gaza.
  • Hezbollah continues to launch attacks against northern Israeli communities and military bases. While sources close to the group claim that it would be willing to “immediately” honour and mirror a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas if one was reached, the US has also indicated a concern that “Israel will launch ground op against Hezbollah in the spring”.
  • In parallel, relatives of hostages and their supporters are marching for a second day from the Gaza periphery to Jerusalem. The march is expected to take four days to complete and will culminate in a solidarity rally in the capital.

Looking ahead:  The Israeli delegation to Qatar is scheduled to return to Israel today.

  • The war cabinet and the security cabinet will meet later today.
  • There is hope that a truce agreement is reached before Ramadan begins which is expected on or around 10th March

February 28, 2024

Israel warns Hezbollah against further northern escalation

What’s happened: In the face of increasing numbers of attacks being launched from southern Lebanon, the IDF’s Chief of Staff Halevi, has warned that Hezbollah would “pay a very heavy price” for joining Hamas in its aggression against Israel since 7th October.

  • Recent days have seen an escalation in both Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel and Israeli responses:
    • This morning, a barrage of 15 rockets was fired at Kiryat Shmona, one directly striking a building in the city. The IDF is returning fire to the source.
    • Some 20 rockets were fired into the Western Galilee yesterday. These launches are understood to have primarily targeted a military base. Iron Dome intercepted projectiles which threatened population centres, and no injuries were reported.
    • In response, IAF combat planes attacked Hezbollah structures and other terrorist infrastructure in four different areas in southern Lebanon last night.
    • On Monday, Hezbollah shot down an Israeli Air Force Elbit Hermes 450 drone over the area of Nabatieh, in southern Lebanon.
    • Then, in response to an Israeli airstrike on Baalbek on Monday morning, Hezbollah fired an additional salvo of approximately 35 rockets into Israel. This salvo targeted a military base responsible for air traffic control on Mount Meron.
    • Later in the afternoon, Hezbollah said that it had fired an anti-tank missile at the base. The IDF later acknowledged that a missile had struck, but confirmed “there was no damage to the site’s capabilities.”
    • Also this week, the IDF confirmed it had killed Hassan Hussein Salami, a senior Hezbollah commander, in an airstrike in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, in turn, fired a barrage of 60 Katyusha rockets at the Golan Heights. There were no reports of injuries.
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant has said that Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are seeking to turn Ramadan into “the second stage of October 7, and ignite the ground.”
  • He has also indicated that in the event of a Ramadan truce being reached with Hamas, it would have no impact on Israeli operations against Hezbollah and that strikes on the Lebanese group would continue and even increase. “We are planning to increase the firepower against Hezbollah, which is unable to find replacements for the commanders we are eliminating… In the event of a temporary truce in Gaza, we will increase the fire in the north, and will continue until the full withdrawal of Hezbollah [from the border] and the return of the residents to their homes…The goal is simple — to push Hezbollah back to where it should be. Either by an agreement or by force.”
  • Halevi said that Hezbollah “decided on October 7 evening that it was joining. It needs to pay a very big price for that. It is completely clear to us that we have to create here, first of all, a powerful obstacle, strong troops that are present here, a very strong [civilian] security squad[s] and security in that there is a safe room in the homes, in the communities. If we act correctly, security and quality of life will be restored here.”

Context: Since 8th October, Hezbollah has aggressively targeted northern Israeli and military bases to maintain what has been described as a “threshold of violence”.

  • These capabilities include missiles, mortars, drones, and anti-tank guided missiles.
  • The downing of the Israeli drone was considered an escalation by Hezbollah. Baalbek, a key Hezbollah stronghold, is also considerably further into Lebanon than where the IDF usually strikes, so likely indicates an escalation in Israeli force and intent.
  • Hezbollah’s targeting of civilians has led Israel to evacuate communities within 10km of the Israeli-Lebanese border. Some 80,000 Israelis from the north are currently internally displaced, and unable to return home due to the threat of Hezbollah violence.
  • 11 IDF soldiers and seven civilians have been killed by Hezbollah since 8th October. According to Hezbollah, 219 of the group’s operatives have been killed by IDF strikes.
  • A number of Hezbollah terrorists targeted by Israel in recent weeks have been commanders within the elite Radwan Force.
  • The Radwan Force was established to spearheaded Hezbollah attempts to infiltrate and capture Israeli territory, and gained significant combat experience in support of the Assad regime during the Syrian Civil War.
  • Following the 7th October, Israel refuses to allow units such as the Radwan Force to maintain a presence on its borders, especially given Radwan’s analogousness to Hamas’s Nukhba commandos in how they are both intended to infiltrate Israeli territory.
  • Israel views the current paradigm of Hezbollah’s presence on its borders as being unacceptable, and holds that Hezbollah must return to its positions north of the Litani River inline with UNSC Resolution 1701.
  • While Israel is not proactively seeking war in southern Lebanon, it is increasingly indicating that it is willing to take necessary military to safeguard its citizens and allow those who have been internally displaced to return home.
  • Meanwhile, Israel continues its attempts to degrade and destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip while securing the return of hostages captured on 7th October:
    • Combat operations continue, primarily in and around Zeitoun in the north of Gaza City and Khan Yunis in the south.
    • While the IDF is preparing to launch an assault on Rafah which is Hamas’s final stronghold in the coastal enclave, it is a realistic possibility that this will be postponed until after Ramadan given ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
    • Qatari-brokered negotiations continue, with US President, Joe Biden indicating that he hopes to see a ceasefire “by next Monday”. Israel and Hamas have both dismissed his comments, with Israel denying his claim that it had agreed to cease fighting by Ramadan.

Looking ahead: While there is no indication of imminent wider Israeli military action in southern Lebanon, it is becoming increasingly likely given the failure of diplomacy to remove Hezbollah from its positions south of the Litani as well as their continued attacks on Israel.

  • While France and the US have led diplomatic efforts to secure this outcome, they have thus far proven unsuccessful. As diplomacy fails to secure northern Israeli communities, military action in southern Lebanon becomes increasingly likely.
  • The Israeli media has quoted sources close to Hezbollah saying that the group will mirror any ceasefire achieved in Gaza.

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