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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated April 4, 2024

Challenging the Iranian presence in the north 

In light of the targeted strike on Iranian Gen. Mohammed Reza Zahedi, this paper gives the latest assessment on the confrontation between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

Challenging the Iranian presence in the north 

Israel is braced for an Iranian responses after an airstrike in Damascus killed the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Lebanon Corps, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi on Monday 1st April 2024. According to the IRGC, Zahedi’s deputy, Gen. Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi was also killed, along with five other officers, in a strike on a building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. The strike was executed with a high degree of precision, necessitated by the presence nearby of the Canadian embassy. Whilst not commenting on any role it may or may not have had, IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari did say that “according to our intelligence,” the building struck is “no consulate and… no embassy… this is a military building of Quds forces disguised as a civilian building in Damascus.”

In line with longstanding policy, Israel does not generally comment on or confirm operations in (a rare exception came in September last year when Defence Minister Gallant implicitly confirmed Israeli Air Force strikes in northern ). However, Zahedi’s assassination continues a pattern over recent months of killings of IRGC personnel, seemingly designed to degrade and disrupt the flow of Iranian weapons to affiliates and proxies in Lebanon and Syria.  

In parallel, direct Israel-Hezbollah hostilities have further intensified in this time, even as the prevailing consensus remains that both Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand, and Israel on the other, seek keeping fighting below the threshold of all-out war.

For the past decade, Israel has targeted Iranian weapons conveys and storage facilities in its “campaign between the wars”. Israel’s calculus appears to have changed since October 7th, with IRGC and Hezbollah personnel now targeted as well.

The significance of Zahedi 

Zahedi’s (also sometimes known as Hasan Mahdavi) is the most significant assassination thus far attributed to Israel since October 7th.  A hugely experienced officer, Zahedi served as the IRGC’s most senior man in Lebanon and Syria, having previously served as commander of the IRGC’s ground forces.

His role saw him oversee relations between all Iran’s regional affiliates and proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, as well as the Syrian authorities and Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq.

In terms of regional influence, perhaps only Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was of greater importance than Zahedi. He was a key component in the ongoing smuggling of Iranian arms to these groups. Iranian resupply of Hezbollah’s weaponry is an essential element in its ability to wage war on Israel. This resupply has become considerably easier since Iran’s presence in Syria increased following the Syrian civil war. Iran has opened up both a land and air corridor, with the frequency of presumed Israeli strikes around Damascus (and other) airports suggesting that is the primary route.

Zahedi is also believed to have been intimately involved in numerous de facto Iranian attacks on Israel. The March 31st attack on an Eilat naval base by Iranian proxies in Iraq further underscored the threat from Shia proxies in the region.

The operation also marks the most senior assassination of IRGC personnel since the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad in January 2020. Other assassinations have taken place in recent months, however. On December 25th 2023, Sayyed Razi Mousavi, a senior IRGC advisor who played a key role, along with Soleimani, in coordinating between Iran and Syria, was killed in an airstrike in Damascus. On January 20th, 2024, another Damascus airstrike attributed to Israel killed at least five IRGC officers, including Quds Force deputy intelligence officer Sadegh Omidzadeh and his deputy, Hajj Gholam.

Tehran and Hezbollah threaten a response 

The prevailing consensus remains that with the war in Gaza ongoing, Tehran will not seek an escalation which leads to all-out war between Israel and another of its proxies. However, Tehran immediately pledged a “serious response”, while Hezbollah promised “punishment and revenge.” On March 3rd, the IDF announced that “following an IDF situational assessment, it was decided to increase manpower and draft reserve soldiers to the IDF Aerial Defense Array.”

Israel’s embassies around the world have been put on a raised alert level, with Israeli diplomats urged to “take preventive measures and pay greater attention to your surroundings, with emphasis on routine movements.” This advice is based on previous Iranian willingness to strike at diplomatic targets (see, for example, a failed Iranian plot against Israel’s embassy in Baku, Azerbaijan, in July 2023), along with the fact that the strike on Zahedi occurred adjacent to Iran’s Damascus Embassy. The opposition media outlet Iran International quoted Jalal Rashidi Koochi, a senior Iranian parliamentarian, as demanding attacks on embassies in response, with Azerbaijan mentioned as a possible target.

Wider immediate responses are also possible, including the potential for a direct missile or UAV attack from Iran.

Growing tensions on the northern border

Tensions have already increased on the Israel-Lebanon border in recent weeks, with an intensification of the strike and counter-strike dynamic seen between Israel and Hezbollah since October 8th.

Although not responding as Hamas desired in its call for full-scale assault from all members of the “Axis of Resistance” on October 7th, Hezbollah has proceeded with multi-site daily rocket attacks on northern Israel. Analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies claims there have been 4,400 “violent incidents” in the border area since October 8th. This includes, according to the IDF, over 2,800 missiles which have been fired at northern Israel from southern Lebanon and Syria (as of April 3rd).

In comparison with previous rounds of fighting with Israel, Hezbollah is increasingly deploying more sophisticated weaponry, including Iranian-produced Almas anti-tank guided missiles with a 10-kilometre range and the shorter range Burkan with its heavy payload. Iranian-produced Hezbollah UAVs have also been used in at least 40 attacks on Israel since October 7th, some fatal.

Seven Israeli civilians and 12 soldiers have been killed and around 300 fighters on the Lebanese side of the border (mostly Hezbollah, along with some Palestinian militants who operate with its approval). Meanwhile, 80,000 northern Israelis from 28 border communities remain displaced, along with a similar number of southern Lebanese.

The bulk of the exchanges of fire have occurred in the border areas, with Hezbollah targeting Israel’s northern military infrastructure along with civilian areas. Israel, for its part, has returned fire to source, along with seeking to degrade Hezbollah’s elite, 10,000 Radwan force, massed on the border, and its rocket and missile-firing capabilities.

In late February and early March, meanwhile, Israel began to conduct strikes far deeper into Lebanese territory, sometimes as much as 110km from the border. Hezbollah’s Aerial Defence Array in Baalbek was struck by the IDF on February 26th and again on March 11th, which also saw a strike on the group’s aerial forces in nearby Tarayaa. Hamas’s deputy chair and West Bank military commander in Beirut Saleh Al-Arouri was also killed in early January.

Attempts at a ceasefire 

US and French attempts at brokering a sustainable ceasefire on the northern border have so far failed to produce results. In mid-February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border, and dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure compliance with the buffer zone. UNIFIL peacekeeping forces would later support both sides to resume negotiations on the points on dispute on their land border. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been effected in Gaza.

Prospects for further escalation 

The prevailing wisdom has always been that Hezbollah’s 130,000 rocket pile is a powder to be kept dry for the event of a strike on Iran’s ever-advancing nuclear weapons capacity. In addition to its large supply of unguided rockets, the group also possesses precision guided missiles, drones and anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles. It has previously boasted that it can hit any part of Israel. So large an arsenal therefore acts, in the Iranian calculus, as an insurance against an Israel operation against its nuclear programme.

Israel, too, would prefer to keep conflict at a level lower than all-out war, not least because its primary focus remains on the war in Gaza. “We do not want to enter into a war,” with Hezbollah, said Gallant in mid-February, “but rather wish to reach an agreement that will allow the safe return of residents of the north to their homes, under an agreement process. But if there is no choice, we will act to bring [the residents] back and create the appropriate security for them. This should be clear to both our enemies and our friends. And as the State of Israel, the defence establishment, and the IDF have proven in recent months, when we say something, we mean it.”

Therefore, Israel is intensifying its preparations for a northern escalation. Last week, IDF commanders completed a specialised training programme at Northern Command HQ in Safed, including both active and reserve units. On April 1st, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi then approved fresh plans “for the continuation of the fighting” during an assessment held with the commander of the Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin. Public awareness has been increased about the threat of intensified fighting in the north, along with greater preparation for the resulting threats to civilian infrastructure such as communications and energy.

Conclusion 

Israel has also been adamant that the pre-October 7th status quo cannot be maintained, and that something approximating the proposals of the French and US envoy Amos Hochstein must ultimately be implemented. The return of the displaced norther residents would require the Radwan Force redeploying at least seven to ten kilometres north of the border – the range of Hezbollah’s Kornet antitank missiles. UN Security Council Resolution 1701, passed in 2006 after the Second Lebanon War, goes further in demanding that Hezbollah move its forces north of the Litani River. Further CSIS analysis “indicates that Hezbollah’s anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) have struck Israeli forces from concealed launch sites less than three kilometres from the Blue Line on at least 17 occasions since October 7,” an illustration both of the group’s violations of UNSCR 1701 and of the need for the Radwan Force to be pushed back at least seven kilometres from the border. Any move away from the border on the part of Hezbollah fighters will need to be made sustainable, since Hezbollah has a track record of initially complying with such deconfliction steps, before then moving its fighters back closer to the border.

Absent a diplomatic solution succeeding, Israel has suggested that sustainable security for returned northern residents will be secured by force, once its operations in Gaza are sufficiently complete.

April 3, 2024

Israel apologises for the death of aid workers

What happened: IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has responded to the tragic accidental killing of seven members from the World Central Kitchen (WCK).

  • Among the seven killed were three British victims: John Chapman, 57, a former UK special forces soldier; James Henderson, 33, a former Royal Marine; and James Kirby, 47. All were part of the WCK security team.
  • Halevi noted, “WCK is an organisation whose people work across the globe, including in Israel, to do good in difficult conditions. The IDF works together closely with the WCK and greatly appreciates the important work that they do.”
  • He related to the results of a preliminary investigation, “the strike was not carried out with the intention of harming WCK aid workers. It was a mistake that followed a misidentification – at night during a war in very complex conditions. It shouldn’t have happened.”
  • Halevi added, “This incident was a grave mistake. Israel is at war with Hamas, not with the people of Gaza. We are sorry for the unintentional harm to the members of WCK. We share in the grief of their families, as well as the entire WCK Organisation, from the bottom of our hearts.”
  • In addition, IDF Spokesperson, Daniel Hagari said yesterday, “As a professional military committed to international law, we are committed to examining our operations thoroughly and transparently. I just spoke to WCK Founder, Chef Jose Anders, and expressed the deepest condolences of the Israel Defence Forces to the families and the entire WCK family. We also express sincere sorrow to our allied nations who have been doing and continue to do so much to assist those in need.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant said, “IDF soldiers cope every day with a complex operational reality, but the coordination mechanism for distribution of and cooperation with international organisations has to be strengthened.”

International responses: The WCK released a statement that noted, “Despite coordinating movements with the IDF, the convoy was hit as it was leaving the Deir al-Balah warehouse, where the team had unloaded more than 100 tons of humanitarian food aid brought to Gaza on the maritime route.”

  • US President Biden said, “I am outraged and heartbroken by the deaths of seven humanitarian workers from WCK, including one American, in Gaza yesterday. They were providing food to hungry civilians in the middle of a war. They were brave and selfless. Their deaths are a tragedy.”
  • Prime Minister Sunak spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu, telling him, “far too many aid workers and ordinary civilians have lost their lives in Gaza and the situation is increasingly intolerable.”
  • Foreign Secretary Cameron said: “These were people who were working to deliver life-saving aid to those who desperately need it. It is essential that humanitarian workers are protected and able to carry out their work. We have called on Israel to immediately investigate and provide a full, transparent explanation of what happened.”
  • Cameron added, “I spoke with Israeli Foreign Minister Katz to underline that the deaths of WCK aid workers in Gaza, including three British Nationals, are completely unacceptable. Israel must urgently explain how this happened & make major changes to ensure safety of aid workers on the ground.”
  • Israel’s Ambassador to the UK Hotovely was summoned by Foreign Office Minister Andrew Mitchell, during which Mitchell “requested a quick and transparent investigation, shared with the international community, and full accountability.”
  • The UAE government, one of the main funders of the humanitarian maritime corridor to Gaza said they would only renew its involvement if Israel were to provide assurances that aid workers would not be attacked again.

Context: WCK is one of the Israel’s preferred humanitarian partners operating inside Gaza assisting the Gazan civilian population.

  • WCK were also one of the first international NGOs to help Israelis after the massacre of October 7th.
  • Despite Israel taking responsibility, from Israel’s perspective the overall blame is on Hamas, for starting this war. Hamas has in the past embedded itself within other international aid organisations (not WCK) and continues to appropriate aid designated for their own civilians.
  • The onus remains on Hamas to release the hostages and bring an end to the conflict.
  • In these type of incidents, the IDF hands over their material to the “Fact Finding and Assessment Mechanism” (FFAM), which is considered an independent, professional, and expert body.
  • In parallel yesterday, the Israeli government responded to a High Court appeal by human rights organisations to outline the extent of the aid it has helped facilitate in allowing to enter the Strip since the start of the war, this included:
    • 252,585, tonnes of food in 12,000 aid trucks.
    • 401 cooking gas tanks.
    • 3.3 million cubic metres of water via new lines.
    • 28,100 tonnes of water via aid trucks.
    • 19,805 tonnes of medical equipment in 1,705 trucks.

Looking ahead: The incident will now be investigated fully. Halevi announced, “An independent body will investigate the incident thoroughly,  we will complete it in the next coming days. We will learn from the conclusions, and implement them immediately. We will share, in full transparency, the findings of the investigation with the World Central Kitchen and other international relevant organisations.”

  • In addition, a new Humanitarian Command Centre will be established under the IDF Southern Command alongside international organisations to prevent incidents of this kind in future.

April 2, 2024

April 2nd – Day 178 of the war: News in Brief

1. An airstrike in Damascus yesterday killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in , Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi. The strike, for which Iran has blamed Israel, destroyed a building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy. Zahedi is reported as having overseen operations targeting Israel from and Lebanon. He is the most senior IRGC officer killed since Qassem Soleimani’s assassination in January 2020, and his death has prompted an angry Iranian response, with its Ambassador to warning that its response to the strike would be “harsh”. While Israel generally refrains from commenting on operations it conducts in Syria, it is understood as having escalated its efforts to reduce Iranian military entrenchment, including the supply of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah and Iranian proxies. This latest strike follows a number of other senior IRGC figures assassinated in recent months. Meanwhile, Hezbollah continues to fire rockets towards northern Israel, and around 80,000 Israelis from the north remain internally displaced.

2. A reported seven aid workers from the World Central Kitchen organisation (WCK) were killed last night in Gaza. The seven, including one UK citizen, died following an Israeli air strike in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip. The charity announced the suspension of its Gaza operations, while CEO Erin Gore paid tribute to “the love” the victims had for “feeding people, the determination they embodied to show that humanity rises above all,” and said that “the impact they made in countless lives will forever be remembered and cherished”. In a statement, the IDF said it was “conducting a thorough review at the highest levels to understand the circumstances of this tragic incident.” It also stressed that it made “extensive efforts to enable the safe delivery of , and has been working closely with WCK in their vital efforts to provide food and to the people of Gaza.” The charity, which made its name distributing aid in Haiti and in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, led the first maritime shipment of to the Gaza Strip last month, including ingredients for 500,000 meals. Elsewhere, COGAT says that on Sunday 205 humanitarian aid trucks were inspected and transferred to the Strip, with 198 then distributed by UN aid agencies. COGAT says this brings the total number of aid trucks transferred since the outset of the war to 19,776. 232 packages containing thousands of meals were airdropped. 21 ambulances were also transferred, taking the total transferred since the start of the war to 105.

3. The IDF completed their two-week targeted operation against Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad inside the Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Overall, over 500 suspects with terror affiliations were arrested, with 200 terrorists killed. According to the IDF, the fighting included “close-quarters encounters,” while they ”located numerous weapons and intelligence documents throughout the hospital, while preventing harm to civilians, patients, and medical teams.” On Sunday, the IDF revealed that inside the maternity ward, “soldiers discovered many weapons hidden inside pillows, hospital beds, ceilings, and the walls of the compound, including dozens of mortar shells, explosive devices, sniper rifles, Kalashnikov rifles, pistols, magazines, mortars and additional ammunition.” Relating to the subverted use of the hospital, Prime Minister Netanyahu told the cabinet on Sunday, “no hospital anywhere in the world looks like this; this was a terrorist lair.”  Meanwhile, the heads of the US and Israeli militaries have discussed the anticipated operation in Rafah. Israeli media reported on a US proposal whereby the Egyptian border will be sealed, and cameras and sensors will be installed. Rafah will be isolated and surrounded by the IDF. IDF troops will raid specific targets based on intelligence, with joint US-Israeli oversight.

4. Over the last few days, Israel experienced a spate of three terrorist attacks including a shooting in the Jordan Valley, and two stabbings in Gan Yavneh and Beersheva. While thought to be unrelated and not resulting in any fatalities, these attacks will undoubtedly cause concern and alarm against the backdrop of what has otherwise been a relatively peaceful Ramadan. The Beersheva stabbing was perpetrated by a resident of Rahat, and is the second such attack to emanate from the Bedouin city in recent weeks. The Gan Yavneh attack was perpetrated by a West Bank resident thought to be illegally working in Israel and left three wounded – two in very serious condition, one in moderate condition. The Jordan Valley shooting was perpetrated by a Palestinian Authority security officer who turned himself into Israeli authorities after spending two days on the run.

5. A drone launched from Iraq has struck the port of Eilat, causing minor damage to an Israeli Navy base with no reported casualties or fatalities. While identified as it entered Israeli airspace, it was not intercepted by local missile defence systems. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq (IRI), an umbrella group representing a number of Iranian-backed Shia militias, has claimed responsibility for this attack. While IRI has attempted to launch several drone attacks against Israel since November 2023, they have thus far achieved limited success. Most of these attacks have been launched from Syria rather than Iraq, and they have primarily targeted civilian settlements in the Galilee or Golan Heights. The IRI is just one of Iran’s proxies which has been weaponised against Israel since October 7th.

6. Mossad Director David Barnea led an Israeli delegation that returned to Cairo for renewed talks on a hostage deal. It is understood that the war cabinet has given the negotiators more flexibility including allowing residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return. Barnea was quoted in Maariv this morning, telling the Qatari and Egyptian mediators, “this is now the true test for Hamas and Sinwar: Do they want a six-week humanitarian ceasefire for the civilian population of the strip or are they interested in continuing with their foot-dragging, which has caused their people terrible suffering,” According to Palestinian media, Hamas is waiting to hear the outcome of the talks before they return to Cairo. Formally, Hamas continues to demand four conditions: an end to the war, an IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, returning Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip, and increasing humanitarian aid supplies. Responding to criticism that he is not doing enough to reach a deal, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “I have approved rescue operations involving risk to our brave soldiers, but the main part of our activity is combining military pressure with resolute negotiations.  Anyone who says I’m not doing everything to get the hostages back is mistaken and is misleading others. Anyone who knows the truth and repeats this lie is doing the hostages’ families an injustice.”

7. Tens of thousands of Israelis gathered outside the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem on Sunday and Monday, in the first two days of a planned four-day protest demanding the resignation of the Netanyahu government, the release of all the hostages, and the end of the exclusion of the ultra-Orthodox from military service. Sunday’s rally was significantly larger, and organised by the Kaplan Force, Brothers in Arms, and other groups formed in response to last year’s judicial overhaul programme. On Sunday, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid spoke, saying of Netanyahu “How has he not disappeared from our lives after October 7? All he cares about is the office and title, and let the country burn.” Another notable presence at Sunday’s demonstration was Arnon Ben-David, chairman of the Histadrut. Yesterday, Yair Golan, the former Meretz MK and IDF Deputy Chief of Staff who is vying to unify and lead the Israeli political left, told protesters “we could have had the hostages home in a process of renewal, with another government, thrown the judicial reform into the garbage, had a defence budget that makes sense. But instead, we’re stuck with the Netanyahu-Gantz government.” Hostage family members also spoke. Albini Peri, whose grandfather Chaim Peri is still held hostage, said “We demand a deal now, but there won’t be one so long as this government finds it more important to kill Arabs than to save Jews,” he said. “A deal now is elections now.”

March 28, 2024

March 28th – Day 173 of the war: News in Brief

1. Three people have been injured in a terror attack in the Jordan Valley this morning. A 30-year-old man is in moderate condition after being shot, and another man in his 20s and a 13-year-old boy lightly hurt after a gunman, disguised in IDF uniform, opened fire on vehicles, including a bullet-proofed school bus, on the Route 90 highway that intersects the village of Auja. Elsewhere in the West Bank, three Palestinians were killed during an Israeli raid in Jenin yesterday. As troops looked to arrest wanted men, two gunmen were killed by a drone strike and a third by IDF fire after troops responded to his throwing an explosive device. During the raid, a vehicle containing primed explosives was safely destroyed, several Palestinians detained, and weapons seized. Periodic violence has continued in the West Bank since the start of Ramadan, though not the major escalation desired by Hamas. Since October 7th, the IDF has arrested around 3,600 West Banke Palestinians, including more than 1,600 with Hamas affiliations. The Palestinians say over 450 have been killed in that time, the majority in clashes with the IDF.

2. Intensification of the fighting has continued on Israel’s northern border following the death of an Israeli civilian yesterday.  According to Lebanese sources, 16 people were killed yesterday in two separate IDF attack in southern Lebanon, making it the highest death toll in a single day since the war begun. Seven of those killed were part of al-Jamal al-Islamiyya terror cell that was attempting an infiltration into Israel. In a separate incident, the IDF targeted a Hezbollah cell. According to Hezbollah, six of their fighters were killed, taking Hezbollah’s causalities to 258 since the war begun. The other fatalities are understood to be affiliated with the Shite Amal movement. In parallel, Hezbollah has continued to fire rockets and anti-tank missiles into northern Israel, with at least 10 rockets launched so far this morning. Last night the head of the IDF Northern Command, Maj Gem Ori Gordin, released a statement saying, “We are at war. We have been at war for almost half a year now, and it doesn’t end with Hezbollah. Tonight, we are operating against al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya, a successful thwarting of a large number of operatives, and this morning Hezbollah itself decided to respond against Kiryat Shmona. We are conducting very significant strikes against Hezbollah, and we will continue to be aggressive in order to strike and push Hezbollah back significantly. We are determined to change the security situation in the north so that the residents can return to the north safely and with a sense of security. On the other hand, we are striking Hezbollah very powerfully and strongly… and also causing a lot of damage in the area where it operates. If we understand that we need to act, we will act tonight as well, and the readiness is there.” 18 Israelis have been killed in the north – 11 soldiers and 7 civilians.

3. According to US officials, Prime Minister Netanyahu has broached rescheduling the meetings between Israeli and US officials he cancelled earlier this week after the US abstained on a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution. The central US focus of the scheduled diplomatic mission of Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and National Security Council chair Hanegbi was to have been finding creative solutions as an alternative to an IDF ground operation in Rafah. White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby yesterday gave an interview to Israel’s Channel 12. Where he struck an empathetic tone regarding Israel’s predicament, noting “Hamas has made clear that they’d like nothing better than to conduct another slaughter like they did on the 7th of October,” he said, “and that’s why we’re continuing to support Israel in their self-defence needs.” On Rafah, Kirby said “we recognise that there’s a need to go after Hamas… Hamas still represents a viable threat and we know that there are Hamas fighters in Rafah.” However, “we don’t believe that going in on the ground in Rafah is a good idea in a major way, that there are other ways to get after that threat.” Meanwhile, Netanyahu defended his decision to cancel the trip, in a meeting with Florida Republican Senator Rick Scott. “The bad thing about the US decision,” Netanyahu said, “was it encouraged Hamas to take a hard line and to believe that international pressure will prevent Israel from freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas.” His response was “a message to Hamas: ‘Don’t bet on this pressure, it’s not going to work.’ I hope they got the message.” Israeli media reports suggest that Israel has begun to prepare for an operation in Rafah, including by purchasing 40,000 tents from China which might be used to shelter evacuated civilians.

4. An IDF soldier, First Sgt. Nissim Kahlon, was killed in action in the southern Gaza Strip yesterday. Kahlon was searching a building in Khan Yunis when a gunman in the building opened fire, killing him and wounding another soldier. Kahlon’s death brings the total number of troops killed on and since October 7th to 597; 253 since the ground operation in Gaza began. Elsewhere in Gaza, the IDF and Shin Bet continue to conduct precise operational activities in Shifa Hospital and in the area of Al Amal. Since the beginning of the latest operation in and around Shifa ten days ago, the IDF says 200 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters have been eliminated. Israel continues to work to protect the hospital and its operations. During military activity yesterday, the IDF Spokesperson’s Office said “troops evacuated civilians, patients, and medical teams to alternative medical facilities that the IDF set up to enable proper medical treatment to continue.” In missions in Al Amal in Khan Yunis, troops found weapons, explosive devices, and mortar shells. The Israeli Air Force also struck several targets in Gaza yesterday, including terror tunnels and an underground launcher.

5. The state last night asked the High Court of Justice for an extension until 2.00pm today to present its answer to petitions about the ultra-Orthodox exemption from the military draft. Having failed to introduce a legislative solution on the question when previous legislation expired in July last year, the temporary delay afforded the government will run out next week, after which the government will technically be required to cease funding for Yeshivas and ultra-Orthodox men will be liable for drafting. Legislation guaranteeing ultra-Orthodox men in full-time Torah study continued exemption from the draft was promised by Netanyahu to his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners when the current government was established. However, as well as widespread criticism from the opposition, Netanyahu has faced push-back from within his own party, most notably Defence Minister Gallant and Ministers Dichter and Barkat, and from war cabinet Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot. A cabinet meeting scheduled for Tuesday was postponed when it became clear than Netanyahu’s mooted solution would not have the required support. The strains of six months of war have laid bare wider Israeli resentments at the inequality of the burden placed on non-ultra-Orthodox Israelis. Ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to quit the coalition if their demands for a total exemption are not met, and so Netanyahu is faced with a seemingly insoluble conundrum in that any legislation which would satisfy the ultra-Orthodox would be opposed by Gallant and Gantz and would also almost certainly fail to meet the standard of equality imposed by the High Court

 

March 27, 2024

March 27th – Day 172 of the war: News in Brief

1. A 25-year-old man has died after the paper factory he was in in Kiryat Shmona’s industrial zone was struck by a Hezbollah rocket this morning. Hezbollah unleashed a barrage of at least 30 rockets on the northern city. It claims the attack is in response to an overnight Israeli airstrike on Habbariyeh in southern Lebanon which reportedly killed seven people. The IDF confirmed last night’s strike and said it had killed a senior member of the Jamaa al-Islamiya terror group who had previously plotted terror attacks against Israel. Jamaa al-Islamiya head Sheikh Mohammed Takkoush claimed this week that his group had been coordinating with both Hezbollah and Hamas. Cooperation with Hezbollah was “on the rise and this is being reflected in the field,” he said. Recent days have seen the latest escalations in the trading of hostilities on the northern front. Around 50 launches on northern Israel from southern Lebanon were attempted yesterday. Both sides have particularly targeted the enemy’s aerial capabilities. Hezbollah yesterday fired anti-tank missiles at Israel’s Mt. Meron base, while reports claim that a few days ago it targeted an Iron Dome battery with two suicide drones. The IDF has continued to respond, sometimes deep into Lebanese territory. This week it targeted a military compound used by Hizbullah aerial units 120 kilometres from the border. With Iran resupplying Hezbollah’s arms through its personnel in , foreign reports also suggest that 15 operatives were killed last night in attacks on pro-Iranian militia targets in . Since October 7th, both Israel and Hezbollah have sought to keep their hostilities from spreading to all-out war, but miscalculations and mistakes could see the situation escalate quickly.

2. Israel’s lead negotiators have returned from Qatar, after Hamas rejected a compromise on a hostage release/ceasefire deal. According to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, “Hamas has once again… repeated its extreme demands: an immediate halt to the war, the complete withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip and leaving in place its administration so that it can repeat, time and again, the massacre of October 7, as it has promised to do. Hamas rebuffed all US offers for a compromise, while celebrating the Security Council’s resolution. Israel will not address Hamas’s delusional demands.” According to Channel 12 News, the gaps include the American proposal to release 700 Palestinian prisoners while Hamas continues to demand 950 (in exchange for 40 hostages). Out of the US’s suggested 700, 100 would be ‘heavyweight’ terrorists serving life sentences for murder. Hamas is demanding 150 with the ability to choose them. The US has suggested a gradual, partial return for residents to the northern Gaza Strip (with Israel’s consent), whilst Hamas continues to demand their full return. The overall assessment is that despite these gaps, a deal could still be achieved if both sides are willing to compromise. There remains a sense that Hamas is hedging bets to see if the last two weeks of Ramadan will lead to increased violence in other sectors that they can exploit to increase the pressure on Israel.  Of the 134 hostages held in Gaza, Israel’s assessment is that 98 are still alive. Yesterday the IDF confirmed that 35-year-old Uriel Baruch of Jerusalem, who was kidnapped from the area of the Nova festival on October 7, was murdered in captivity. Baruch was a father of two. His body is being held by Hamas.

3. In Gaza, the IDF continues to conduct precise operations in Shifa Hospital and its environs. Over the last day, troops located weapons and killed several Hamas fighters in the area. Further IDF operations are ongoing in both central Gaza and in Al Amal and Al-Qarara in the Khan Yunis area. The IDF has also released footage of interrogations of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) gunmen apprehended in Shifa. One states that “600 to 1,000 Hamas operatives are hiding in the hospital.” Israel has also confirmed recent reports that Hamas’s deputy military chief Marwan Issa was killed in a strike earlier this month. Issa served as deputy to Hamas’s Gazan number two, Mohammed Deif. The IDF also confirmed that another senior Hamas member, Head of Administrative and Combat Support Ghazai Abu Tamaa, had also been killed.

4. In an interview with The New York Times, freed hostage Amit Soussana has spoken of the attacks and sexual assaults she suffered at the hands of her Hamas guard. Soussana, 40, who was released on the last day of a week-long hostage release/ceasefire in November, said that around two and a half weeks into her captivity, “he came towards me and shoved the gun at my forehead. He sat me on the edge of the bath. And I closed my legs. And I resisted. And he kept punching me and put his gun in my face. Then he dragged me to the bedroom.” The guard then forced Soussana to remove her towel, groped her, and forced her to “commit a sexual act on him.” Soussana’s testimony is the first time a freed hostage has spoken publicly of the sexual violence they suffered. Of the guard, she said: “You can’t stand looking at him — but you have to: He’s the one who’s protecting you, he’s your guard. You’re there with him and you know that every moment it can happen again. You’re completely dependent on him.”

5. Following Netanyahu’s decision to cancel Minister Dermer and National Security Advisor Hanegbi’s trip to the US in the wake of the US abstaining on the United Nations Security Council ceasefire resolution earlier this week, Defence Minister Gallant has continued his own trip to Washington. Gallant met with both US Defense Secretary Austin and CIA head William yesterday. He told Austin that the negotiations on the hostages and Hamas’s positions require that the US and Israel remain on the same page on military and diplomatic efforts.  Gallant stressed that Israel and the United States share 100 percent of their values and 99 percent of their interests. Gallant also made a public video statement where he said that Israel has “no moral right to stop the war in Gaza” adding that if a “clear and absolute victory [is not reached] in Gaza, it could bring the war in the north closer”. With the continued supply of US arms crucial to Israel’s war effort, Gallant also “discussed with American officials the importance of maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region – including air capabilities and essential platforms.” Of the ‘day after’ in Gaza, he said that Israel “must build a local alternative” to Hamas.

6. A scheduled cabinet meeting was first postponed and then cancelled yesterday after Prime Minister Netanyahu failed to come to an agreement with ultra-Orthodox parties on a military draft arrangement. The law allowing young ultra-Orthodox men to avoid service in the IDF by registering as being in full-time Torah study expired last week, and the government was supposed to have legislated a new one by this week. Netanyahu’s original mooted solution would have seen a bill introduced which did not include targets for ultra-Orthodox recruitment. Instead, it raised the age of their exemption to 35, guaranteed that those who don’t enlist do not face financial penalties, and included a plan to set up designated ultra-Orthodox units in the IDF. War cabinet ministers Gallant and Gantz both objected to the plan, as did Attorney General Baharav-Miara, who said she would not be able to defend the proposal in court. Netanyahu then submitted a moderated plan yesterday, rowing back on some of the commitments in the original. As well as Gallant and Gantz’s criticisms that the plans do not go far enough in introducing ultra-Orthodox service, Netanyahu is facing threats to withdraw from the coalition from the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party, who object to any attempt to end the traditional exemption. Dozens of IDF reserve commanders have also written to Netanyahu protesting an “extremely unequal” proposal which they say would harm Israel’s security

March 26, 2024

UNSC passes ceasefire resolution, US abstains

What’s happened: The US abstained yesterday rather than use its veto on a non-binding UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and a release of the hostages.

  • The text of the resolution which passed with the council’s 14 other votes in favour – including from the UK –  “demands an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan respected by all parties leading to a lasting sustainable ceasefire.”
  • It also “emphasises the urgent need to expand the flow of humanitarian assistance to and reinforce the protection of civilians in the entire Gaza Strip and reiterates its demand for the lifting of all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale.”
  • Elsewhere, the resolution “demands the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.”
  • Following the vote, US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in a statement: “Certain key edits were ignored, including our request to add a condemnation of Hamas. And we did not agree with everything in this resolution. For that reason, we were unfortunately not able to vote yes. However, as I said before, we fully support some of the critical objectives in this nonbinding resolution. And we believe it was important for the Council to speak out and make clear that any ceasefire must come with the release of all hostages.”
  • In a statement, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Office called the abstention “a clear retreat from the consistent US position in the Security Council since the beginning of the war.” “Today’s resolution,” it added, “gives Hamas hope that international pressure will force Israel to accept a ceasefire without the release of our hostages, thus harming both the war effort and the effort to release the hostages.”
  • Netanyahu also cancelled the scheduled departure of Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and National Security Council Director Hanegbi, who were set to follow Defence Minister Gallant to the US for talks with US counterparts, centred on Israel’s promised ground operation in Rafah.
  • In response to that, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said, “The prime minister’s office seems to be indicating in public statements that we somehow changed here. We haven’t. And we get to decide what our policy is. It seems like the prime minister’s office is choosing to create a perception of daylight here, when they don’t need to do that.”
  • Another US official called Netanyahu’s decision “sudden”, “excessive”, and as “stemming from Israel’s domestic political tensions.”
  • Minister Benny Gantz said, “the right thing would be for the delegation to go. It would have been good were the prime minister to go in person to meet with Biden.”
  • Both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) welcomed the passing of the resolution, the PA’s UN envoy Riyad Mansour including in his speech to the Assembly a reference to “our Hamas brothers.”
  • In parallel, contrary to yesterday’s reports that negotiators in Doha might be inching towards a hostage release deal, Hamas announced a negative response to the US bridging proposal which would have seen between 700 and 800 Palestinian security prisoners, including around 100 life-term prisoners, released in exchange for 40 hostages among women, children, and the sick and elderly being held in Gaza.
  • Hamas replied that its position remained unchanged and that only a full ceasefire and IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip would be enough to secure a deal.
  • Despite ongoing IDF operations, several rockets were launched out of northern Gaza yesterday. The first barrage of 14 targeted Ashkelon and Ashdod. The Iron Dome then intercepted three rockets that were fired at Sderot last night.

Context: Yesterday’s resolution marks the first time since October 7th that the US has declined to exercise its power to veto a UNSC resolution calling for an end to the war in Gaza.

  • It comes days after a softer-worded US-initiated resolution was vetoed by China and Russia.
  • The US abstention is being interpreted as the latest and most significant indicator of the increasing tension between the Biden Administration and the Netanyahu government over the conduct of the war and post-war planning.
  • Despite Netanyahu’s approach of calling off meetings with the US, Defence Minister Gallant endorses an even closer working relationship with the US administration.
  • Foreign Secretary Cameron responded to the UNSC vote on Twitter/X, saying that the international community now needed to work towards “removing Hamas’s capacity to launch attacks against Israel”, “Hamas no longer being in charge of Gaza”, and the formation of a new Palestinian Government as a step towards a two state solution.
  • Israeli analysts have reflected the difficulty of achieving these objectives without continuing to pursue military operations in Gaza, including in Rafah.
  • US criticisms, which have become increasingly public in recent months, centre chiefly on the supply of aid to the Gaza Strip and a prospective operation in Rafah it has called “a red line”.
  • Israel, for its part, has continued to insist that any aid blockages are not on its side, that sufficient supplies are reaching the Strip, and that an operation in Rafah is essential to the decisive defeat of Hamas which has been supported as a war aim by its allies.
  • On Monday, COGAT announced that over 200 aid trucks were inspected and transferred via Kerem Shalom and Nitzana.
  • The Israeli position is also that maintaining military pressure on Hamas’s leadership and remaining battalions is the best way to secure a release of the remaining 130 hostages, and that seeking to curtail or limit its operations in Gaza plays into Hamas’s hands. It will point to the timing of Hamas’s latest refusal of a deal, coming after the UNSC vote, as further evidence of this.
  • During his meeting with US National Security Advisor Sullivan yesterday, Gallant said “we have no moral right to stop the war in Gaza until we return all the hostages home. The lack of a decisive victory in Gaza may bring us closer to war in the north.”
  • Sullivan said of their meeting: “I conveyed President Biden’s iron-clad support for Israel’s security and defence against all threats, including Iran. I welcomed Yoav’s commitment to take additional steps to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.”

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Gallant remains in the US despite Netanyahu’s cancelling of Dermer and Hanegbi’s trip. He is due to meet for talks with his US counterpart Secretary Austin today.

  • Despite Hamas’s apparent intransigence, there is still hope that the hostage talks in Qatar will bear fruit

March 25, 2024

Chance for progress on US hostage deal proposal

What’s happened: Reports suggest that there is a chance for agreement on a hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas following negotiations in Qatar.

  • According to the reports, Israel has agreed to a US bridging proposal which would see between 700 and 800 Palestinian security prisoners, including around 100 life-term prisoners, released in exchange for 40 hostages among women, children, and the sick and elderly being held in Gaza.
  • It is suggested that there is also movement on one of Hamas’s key demands – the return of northern Gazans to their previous areas of residence. Israel is said to be prepared to consider the gradual return of more than 2,000 people each day once the hostages begin to be released. Israel is unlikely to agree to the return of Gazan men.
  • Elsewhere, Prime Minister Netanyahu said yesterday that Israel would operate in the city of Rafah, Hamas’s last stronghold, despite US and international pressure not to do so.
  • “On October 7,” Netanyahu said, “Hamas committed what even President Biden called absolute evil. Absolute evil cannot be defeated when it is left intact in Rafah. We will enter Rafah and we will achieve total victory.”
  • Netanyahu’s remarks came during a reading with soldiers of the Megillah, the Purim story from the Book of Esther, in which Haman, the enemy of the Jewish people is defeated. “We destroyed Haman, we will also destroy Sinwar,” said the prime minister.
  • The IDF also began to operate yesterday in the vicinity of Al Amal Hospital in Khan Yunis, following intelligence that Hamas operatives have been using the facility.
  • Meanwhile, operations continue in Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, where troops found large quantities of weapons. 20 operatives were killed in the hospital over the last day, and others arrested.
  • IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Hagari said last night that Hamas had hijacked Shifa and was using its patients as human shields. “Hamas is destroying the Shifa Hospital,” he said, and “is firing from inside the Shifa emergency room and throwing explosive devices from the Shifa burn ward.”
  • 30 IDF troops were injured in combat over the weekend, 25 of them in Gaza. Two are listed as in severe condition.

Context: After weeks of frustrated negotiations, a senior Israeli official put the latest proposals’ chances of success at 50-50.

  • The Israeli negotiating team, led to by Mossad head Barnea and including Shin Bet Director Bar and the IDF’s Nitzan Alon, flew back to Israel from Doha last night. US CIA Director Burns also left.
  • The proposal reportedly accepted by Israel is similar to one floated by Qatar three weeks ago, and rejected by Israel then. A crucial difference, however, is that the current US proposal allows for the release of fewer life-term Palestinian prisoners than the Qatari proposal did.
  • The current framing is far more accommodating to Hamas than the proposals originally mooted in the Paris negotiations, which would have seen around 400 prisoners – and only 25 life-termers – released.
  • In previous responses, Hamas has pushed for a full Israeli withdrawal of forces from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire. Over the weekend, a Hamas official once more complained that Israel “refuses to agree on a comprehensive ceasefire and refuses the complete withdrawal of its forces from Gaza.”
  • The US has repeatedly warned Israel against an operation in Rafah, and continues to do so. Speaking on ABC’s ‘This Week’ yesterday, Vice-President Harris said “we have been clear in multiple conversations and in every way that any major military operation in Rafah would be a huge mistake.” Asked if there would be consequences from the US towards Israel if Israel went ahead, Harris said “I am ruling out nothing.”
  • President Biden has previously referred to Rafah as a US “red line”, and US officials suggested earlier in March that the Administration would consider placing conditions on its vital military aid to Israel if an operation went ahead.
  • Rafah is home to four of Hamas’s remaining battalions, and an estimated 1.5 million Gazans – the city’s usual population of 200,000 having been greatly swelled by Gazans who have fled fighting elsewhere in the Strip.
  • Israel has previously pledged to undertake an evacuation of the civilian population prior to any operation. Such an evacuation is hugely complex and demanding.
  • US media has reported that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) operatives who have recently regrouped in Shifa Hospital may include senior leaders. The reports suggest they considered that Israel had ceased its operations in northern Gaza and that it was safe to return.
  • Since Israel began its latest operation in Shifa last Monday, the IDF says that 500 Hamas and PIJ operatives have been arrested, while 170 are thought to have been killed.
  • A notable arrest last week was Mahmoud Qawasmeh, a high-ranking Hamas official who was an instigator of West Bank terror.

Looking ahead: Negotiators will now await Hamas’s response to the US proposal. A reply is expected within two days, with the relay of information to Hamas’s Gazan leadership continuing to take time. The final decision on accepting or rejecting the proposal is likely to rest with its Gazan leader, Yahya Sinwar.

  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant left last night for an official visit to Washington. He will meet the US secretaries of defence and state, the national security adviser, and the CIA director. Before leaving, Gallant said they would be discussing the war and the return of the hostages, as well as the situation in the north and the ongoing supply of US arms to Israel. Reports over the last month have suggested that the supply of military aid has slowed.
  • Minister Dermer and head of Israel’s National Security Council Hanegbi are set to follow Gallant to the US later this week, for further discussion on Rafah

March 22, 2024

Understanding Israel-UK Weapons Trade

Recent reports suggest that the UK is considering ceasing arms sales to Israel. This paper looks at the current state of military trade between the two nations, in the context of strong bilateral ties.

UK to Israel arms sales 

While the UK is considered Israel’s second-staunchest western ally after the US, UK arms imports do not represent a substantial part of Israel’s defence procurement. In addition to its own sophisticated domestic production, Israel is a substantial importer of arms, at least 70 percent of which come from the USA. Imports from France, Germany, and Italy also constitute a larger percentage than those from the UK.

UK-Israel defence trade is of mutual benefit, and the relative importance of the trade relationship is arguably greater to the UK military than to the IDF.

Data from Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT), a UK based pressure group that seeks an end to the global arms trade, shows the UK granted licences worth £574 million for companies to export to Israel since 2008, the year country level data was first made available.

A substantial proportion of this total was in 2017, when £221 million worth of licences were approved. CAAT says the single biggest licence in value, worth £182 million, was issued in October 2017, for “technology for military radars”. Licences were also granted for components for military radars, electronic warfare and targeting equipment, and components of aircraft and helicopters. [1]

Out of those goods licensed by the UK for export to Israel, a large proportion are for dual use goods for non-military use, or for goods for incorporation in Israel before onward export to a third country. Within the military goods, the majority are for components rather than complete systems or sub-systems. Many UK licences for military equipment are for components for incorporation into US-manufactured platforms which were then re-exported to Israel.

The UK exports nearly 25 times the value of arms to Saudi Arabia as it does to Israel. According to CAAT figures, since 2008, countries ahead of Israel in terms of receiving UK arms are, in descending order: Saudi Arabia (£14bn); United States of America (£8.3bn); France (£5.2bn); Qatar (£3.5bn); Italy (£2.8bn); Oman (£2.5bn); Turkey (£2.3bn); India (£2.3bn); Norway (£2.2bn); United Arab Emirates (£1.7bn); Germany (£1.3bn); South Korea (£1.2bn); Indonesia (£1.0bn); Spain (£883m); Sweden (£874m); Canada (£861m); Taiwan (£790m); Netherlands (£788m); Brazil (£724m); Australia (£691m); Malaysia (£673m)

While the UK’s precise contribution to total Israeli arms imports is difficult to quantify [2], Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data lists Italy as Israel’s third largest supplier of arms, with 0.9 percent of Israel’s total imports. The UK’s share can therefore be reliably quantified as less than 0.9 percent of Israel’s total.

Israel to UK arms sales

Imported Israeli arms have protected UK service personnel in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and in other combat deployments. A theoretical cessation of arms trade between the two countries would in fact likely to have a more direct impact on UK operations than on the IDF.

The UK is the world’s thirteenth largest importer of arms (two places higher than Israel), and Israel is its third largest supplier, accounting for 2.7 percent of UK arms imports according to the most recent data (the USA is by far the largest, accounting for 89 percent of UK imports.)

Israeli arms sales to the UK increased significantly from 2006, due to the British need in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Significant arms imported include:

  • The Hermes-450 UAV, a multirole high performance tactical Unmanned Air System (UAS) developed by Elbit Systems which serves as an Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) platform and which is designed to support long endurance and concealed operations. The Hermes was used extensively by Britain in Afghanistan between 2007 and 2014. In 2013 British-controlled Hermes 450s had completed 70,000 hours flight time in Afghanistan.
  • The Watchkeeper UAV is a tactical system, modelled on the Elbit Hermes 450, which provides the UK armed forces with intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) capability. It is produced through a joint venture of Elbit and Thales UK in a contract priced at £800-million.
  • M-113 Spike-NLOS, an Israeli fourth-generation fire-and-forget anti-tank guided missile and anti-personnel missile with a tandem-charge HEAT warhead.

Elbit’s Systems UK has won 25 public contracts, totalling more than £355m, since 2012, according to data supplied by Tussell, which provides details on UK government contracts. Elbit also runs a joint venture called Affinity Training with US company KBR. Affinity has a contract with the UK MoD worth £500m over 18 years to train UK pilots at RAF Cranwell in Lincolnshire.

Context – arms sales during the war in Gaza

Activists have called on the UK to reconsider Israeli import licences in light of the war in Gaza. Several countries, such as Canada, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium – like the UK all relatively small arms providers to Israel – have suspended or limited sales for the duration of the war.

On 12 December 2023 the Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, decided that he was “satisfied that there was good evidence to support a judgment that Israel is committed to comply[ing] with International Humanitarian Law” and decided to recommend not to suspend or revoke extant licences but to keep them under careful review. On 18 December 2023 the Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Kemi Badenoch, decided, following a review, not to suspend or stop granting export licences to Israel. Instead, she decided to “keep her decisions about whether or not to grant, revoke, or refuse licences under continuing, careful review, in view of the current hostilities in Gaza”. [3]

In late February, the High Court dismissed a case brought by the Palestinian human rights organisation Al-Haq and the UK-based Global Legal Action Network (Glan) urging the suspension of UK arms sales to Israel. The court found that a “high hurdle” needed to be cleared to prove that Badenoch and Cameron’s reasoning was “irrational”, and that there was “no realistic prospect of that hurdle being surmounted here.” Also in February, the UK ceased cooperation with Israel on maintenance of F-35s at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus for the duration of the war in Gaza.

Temporary UK suspensions of arms sales to Israel is not without precedent. During Operation Protective Edge in 2014, the UK Government reviewed its export licences to Israel and “found that the vast majority of exports currently licensed for Israel are not for items that could be used by Israeli forces in operations in Gaza in response to attacks by Hamas.” It temporarily suspended 12 licences which did meet that criteria.

In last Friday’s Daily Telegraph, Charles Moore wrote, responding to speculation of a suspension of arms sales to Israel: “In the present case, it is safe to say that, if Israel did not make, buy and sell arms with great skill, it would long ago have been destroyed. It follows that since a government like ours is friendly to Israel, it should resist the use of international law to assist through courts the undermining of a country, which its enemies have so far failed to achieve in 75 years of intermittent violence…Unlike the United States, we are not Israel’s arms lifeline. Britain sells less than £50 million worth of arms-related material to Israel annually. We buy much more from the Israelis than we sell them. Some of what they get from us is useful in tasks like reclaiming Gazan tunnels from Hamas, but its loss would not be materially large.”

Moore touched on the issue of potential double standards of selling to other countries. “It would make it much harder for Britain to conduct future arms sales to countries like Saudi Arabia, whose help will be needed if plans for a durable Middle Eastern peace are revived. It would make Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Iran gleeful… autocrats who hold all law in contempt but love it when it ties their opponents up in knots – Putin, Xi, Hamas etc. They note that our deepening engagement with international legal processes seems increasingly to mean that we are the losing stomach for any long fight. Europeans called Putin ‘delusional’ when he invaded Ukraine, but the sad truth may be that we are the more deluded.”

Conclusion 

Israel is considered to be a first-tier ally of the UK. UK-Israel military cooperation has been growing over the last decade, with the relationship viewed as mutually beneficial. The 2021 joint ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ signalled the growing importance of the relationship, and led to 2023’s ‘2030 roadmap for UK-Israel bilateral relations’. This accord recognised that “The enjoy a close strategic partnership, with extensive defence and security cooperation to tackle shared threats, protect our mutual security interests and develop stronger capabilities. For both the , this is one of the most important defence and security relationships, encompassing a broad range of activities.”

Both militaries share a commitment to improving and integrating their multi-domain capabilities in maritime, land, air, space, and cyber and electromagnetic. They share similar interests in the region. While Israel feels the Iranian threat far more acutely due to its relative geographic proximity, both countries wish to prevent Iran achieving a nuclear capability, curb its advanced ballistic missile programme and counter Iranian proxies, particularly in Lebanon, , Iraq, Yemen and the shipping lanes of the Gulf.

The sales of UK-manufactured arms and other security equipment to Israel is a sign of the two countries’ shared security interests, (though of less material significance than the kinds of cooperation described above).

In threatening to suspend sales, the UK is sending the message – likely in consort with the US – that it has serious reservations over the conduct of the war in Gaza and its humanitarian impact. Doing so while continuing to affirm Israel’s right to self-defence against a Hamas enemy whose genocidal intent was made explicit on October 7th, the UK is trying to act the role of critical but loyal friend.

In Israel, however, the move will be seen as having little material impact but as sending a dangerous message to Hamas and to Israel’s other enemies – that Israel’s western coalition is fraying and support for its campaign to defend itself against Hamas waning.

1. NB Total licence value does not necessarily indicate total sale value, only the total amount the licence permits the seller to trade to Israel. A full list of UK to Israel defence sale licences both granted and refused between 1 July 2017 to 30 June 2022 can be found in Appendix 1 (page 25) here.)

2. Britain’s open licence system is what makes precise calculations hard. The F35 combat aircraft is one example: 15 percent of every F35 is made by British industry, with much of this covered under the open licence system and therefore not included in licence calculations. CAAT estimates the value of the components UK industry supplies for Israeli F35s to be worth at least £336m since 2016. Possessing advanced stealth capabilities, the F35 is an important weapon in Israel’s war in Gaza, and in its defence against both Hezbollah aggression in the north and Houthi attacks from the Red Sea.

3. The UK bases decisions on arms exports on eight separate criteria. The purpose of these criteria, says the government, is “to promote global security and facilitate responsible exports. They help ensure that goods exported from the United Kingdom do not contribute to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) or a destabilising accumulation of conventional weapons. They protect the United Kingdom’s security and our expertise by restricting who has access to sensitive technologies and capabilities. Export controls also help ensure that controlled items are not used for internal repression or in the commission of serious violations of international humanitarian law. They are one of the means by which we implement a range of international legal commitments including the Arms Trade Treaty.”

March 21, 2024

March 21st – Day 167 of the war: News in Brief

1. This morning, Yediot Ahronot front page leads with a story suggesting that the UK has stunned Israel by saying that unless diplomats or Red Cross representatives are allowed to visit terrorists from Hamas’s elite Nukhba unit detained in Israel, the UK might cease arms sales to Israel. UK Foreign Secretary Cameron has reportedly warned Jerusalem that unless conditions change, it can expect to see Europe-wide shifts in arms sales policy. A team of UK lawyers visited Israel two weeks ago, with London concerned that Red Cross officials have not been allowed to visit the detainees, in line with the demands of international law. Israel opposes such visits on the grounds that according to international law it can object to them on the basis of security exceptions. It should be noted, too, that Red Cross access to the hostages in Gaza has been repeatedly denied by Hamas. The UK threat bears all the hallmarks of a coordinated effort by the US and Israel’s other western allies to pressure Jerusalem to change its policies in the prosecution of the war. “A plague of sanctions against Israel is liable to break out, one that could spread across the world,” a senior government official told Yediot Ahronot. Israeli Foreign Minister Katz sent a letter to Cameron, his counterpart, via Israel’s ambassador in London, Tzipi Hotovely saying, as summarised by Yediot Ahronot, that “now is the time to strengthen the State of Israel, not to weaken it, especially at a time that negotiations for a hostage release deal with the Hamas terror organisation are underway. Katz said there is ‘no room’ for steps of this kind (meaning weapons bans) at this critical moment in the talks on the hostage issue, and added that any decision that hurts Israel sends a message to Hamas that they can draw out negotiations and block implementation of a deal.”

2. Mixed reports are emerging from Doha concerning progress being made in hostage/ceasefire negotiations. US Secretary of State Blinken said that progress has been made, and that the distance between the two sides on a mutually agreeable deal is narrowing. An agreement is “very much possible,” Blinken said in an interview to Saudi media during a visit to the kingdom. “We worked very hard with Qatar, Egypt and Israel to put a strong proposal on the table,” Blinken said. “Hamas wouldn’t accept it. They came back with other demands. The negotiators are working on that right now, but I believe it’s very much doable, and it’s very much necessary. If Hamas cares at all about the people it purports to represent, then it would reach an agreement because that would have the immediate effect of a ceasefire, alleviating the tremendous suffering of people, bringing more humanitarian assistance in and then giving us the possibility of having something more lasting.” Israeli officials have been more circumspect, one telling The Washington Post, “this is not a negotiation that will end in days — it will end, maybe, in weeks.” Hamas’s Beirut-based official Osama Hamdan, meanwhile, claimed Israel’s response to Hamas’s latest terms had been “generally negative”.3. The military operation inside the Shifa Hospital compound in Gaza City is continuing. According to the IDF they have arrested 350 people, including dozens of high-ranking terrorists and key Hamas operatives. One of those arrested was Mahmoud Qawasmeh, a high-ranking Hamas official who was an instigator of West Bank terror. Infamously he was one of the people who planned the kidnapping and murder of the three Israeli teenagers Eyal Yifrah, Gil-Ad Shaer and Naftali Fraenkel, in summer 2014. The IDF revealed they found weapons throughout the hospital, including: Kalashnikov rifles, machine guns, magazines, mortars, grenades, RPGs, and combat gear, and that they have killed over 140 terrorists. The troops also found £2.37 million worth of US dollars and Jordanian dinars, funds that were earmarked for terrorist purposes. Perhaps the most significant discovery is high-quality intelligence material that surpassed expectations. This includes computers and personal files which, for example, included the salary payments made to the full Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) payroll, revealing the whole organisation’s personnel to the Shin Bet. At the same time the IDF has ensured the hospital staff, patients and civilians continue to receive food, water and .

4. In a joint Shin Bet and IDF operation, Israel has killed two senior PIJ operatives in a strike on their vehicle in the area of Jenin. The targets were Ahmed Barakat, who shot and murdered Israeli civilian Meir Tamari in Hermesh in May 2023, and Muhammad Shuakhin, an Islamic Jihad commander of terrorist infrastructure in the Jenin area. Two other operatives were also killed. A joint IDF-Shin Bet statement said “the two operatives who were struck were involved in advancing significant terrorist activity and attacks on Israeli civilians. They were behind the recent attempt by a terrorist to enter into the heart of Israel in order to carry out a planned attack, which was thwarted by Israeli security forces on March 11, 2024. In addition, the terrorists directed an explosives attack against IDF soldiers on March 8, 2024, during which seven IDF soldiers were injured in the area of the Homesh Junction.” Elsewhere in the West Bank, two other Palestinians have been killed in clashes with an IDF brigade currently raiding the Nur Shams refugee camp in the Tulkarm area, while a Palestinian man was shot and wounded this morning by IDF troops in the southern West Bank. A search of his bag reportedly turned up a knife. Meanwhile, in Jenin, a young Palestinian man named Carim Jabarin was executed last night by PIJ for alleged “collaboration” with Israel. Jabarin was injured in clashes between PIJ and Palestinian Authority Security Forces, before being seized by PIJ operatives. Palestinian reports suggested one of his executioners was his own brother.5. IDF operations also continue in other areas of the Gaza Strip. IDF troops targeted another site in Gaza City where Hamas operatives had gathered ahead of a planned raid on trucks. The IDF learned about their plans and during the attack killed 23 terrorists. The IDF also revealed that earlier in the week IDF fighter jets, “eliminated senior Hamas operatives in Rafah who assisted its military wing in establishing continued control, as well as operations in the field…. The senior operatives were the representatives of Hamas’ leadership in Rafah. As part of their roles, they managed the terror organisation’s activities in humanitarian zones and were responsible for coordination with Hamas operatives in the field.” Also in Khan Yunis, the IDF engaged with Hamas operatives and “destroyed dozens of [sites of] terrorist infrastructure.”

6. In the north, once again rocket attacks emanating from Lebanon continued throughout yesterday, including in the areas of Har Dov, Yir’on, Misgav Am, and Margaliot all close to border. As usual, in response, the IDF struck the sources of the fire. The Israeli Air Force also struck a Hezbollah military compound in the area of Houla, and observation posts in the areas of Kfarkela and Yaroun. Lebanese media with Hezbollah affiliation are reporting that an Israeli spy ring has been uncovered in the country. According to the report, two people were arrested, allegedly working for Israel, to whom they provided details about Beirut and the Dahiya neighbourhood.

March 20, 2024

March 20th – Day 166 of the war: News in Brief

1. The UK’s largest delivery of aid to Gaza since the start of the war has crossed the border and begun to be distributed. More than 2,000 tonnes of food aid is being distributed by the World Food Programme, adding to the 150 tonnes of UK funded relief items including blankets and tents, which arrived on Wednesday. According to COGAT, 248 trucks carrying were yesterday inspected by Israel and transferred to Gaza. However, of those 248, only 126 trucks were distributed by UN aid organisations, leaving 122 waiting to be distributed. Around two thirds of these trucks carry food, with the rest carrying medical equipment, water and shelter equipment. Israel has placed no limit on the amount of food that can enter the Gaza Strip with 29 of the food aid trucks entering yesterday making their way up to northern Gaza. Kamal Adwan Hospital was also restocked with medical supplies and Jabalia Health Centre was refuelled.

2. The IDF is continuing their targeted operation within the compound of the Shifa hospital in Gaza City. According to the IDF, “Over the past day, the troops have eliminated terrorists and located weapons in the hospital area, while preventing harm to civilians, patients, medical teams, and medical equipment.” According to the army they have killed, “approximately 90 terrorists in the area, the IDF and ISA have questioned over 300 suspects at the compound, and an additional 160 suspects have been transferred to Israeli territory for further questioning.” Among those arrested were “prominent terrorists” from Hamas who the IDF say were involved in directing terror in the West Bank, well as terrorists from the “Rocket Unit” of Palestinian Islamic Jihad. During the fighting a 51-year-old IDF reservist, Sebastian Haion, was killed in action. He is the 251st IDF fatality since the ground incursion begun. In parallel, the IDF continues to operate against Hamas operatives and infrastructure across the Gaza Strip, including in Khan Yunis and central areas. In addition, Palestinian sources are reporting on an air strike in Rafah. Also yesterday, a rocket was launched from northern Gaza toward the city of Sderot, but fell inside the Gaza Strip. In response, an Israeli aircraft struck an operational Hamas tunnel shaft in the area of the launch.

3. In hostage negotiation talks in Doha, Israeli officials have received Hamas’s latest demands. These include: 40 hostages to be released in exchange for 950 prisoners, to be chosen by Hamas; 50 prisoners, including 30 “heavyweight” prisoners, to be chosen by Hamas and to be released in exchange for every female soldier being held captive (coming to a total of 250 prisoners for the female soldiers); a full civilian return of northern Gaza. Israeli news reports suggest that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar has shifted the priority focus from the release of “heavyweight” prisoners to the return of northern Gazans to their former places of residence. With Israel reluctant to agree to a full-scale return, if true this could prove a significant stumbling block in negotiations. Delays are expected, caused by the relay of information from Doha to Hamas’s Gazan leadership. One Israeli official told Channel 12: “Even if there is a foreign-based branch of Hamas, they have no mandate at all to make decisions. Every comma, every period takes between 24-36 hours. This is going to be a complicated process.” The Israeli delegation is said to have been given a limited remit by the political echelon, as a tactic to test the seriousness of Hamas’s commitment to a deal. Meanwhile in Tel Aviv, hostage families joined protesters demanding “No return from Qatar without a deal” in blocking northbound traffic on the Ayalon Highway this morning.

4. Two senior Israeli delegations will visit the US next week. The Government announced that one delegation, consisting of Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and National Security Council Director Hanegbi will conduct talks on a potential operation in Rafah, while Defence Minister Gallant will visit his US counterpart Lloyd Austin. The US will present Israel a plan designed to avoid a major operation in Rafah. The US plan would allow for targeted operations against Hamas, while focussing on stopping the supply of weapons smuggled to Hamas through the Egypt to Gaza Philadelphi Corridor. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office released a statement saying that in discussions with the US, “the prime minister stressed that he is determined to operate in Rafah in order to eliminate for good the remaining Hamas battalions while offering humanitarian solutions to the civilian population.”

5. Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that “there are elements in Israel who are cooperating with the Americans to prevent entry to Rafah.” Netanyahu also claimed that an all-for-all hostage deal, which would see all remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza freed in exchange for the full list of Palestinian security prisoners whose release is demanded by Hamas, was impossible. Referring to the current negotiation, whose terms would see 40 Israeli hostages released in return for a limited release of Palestinians, he said “If we don’t get the 40 hostages now, we’re not going to get any hostages at all.” Netanyahu came under fire in the meeting for his apparent agreement to a pilot programme allowing Palestinian workers from the West Bank back to work in Israel – a move supported by the military and intelligence establishments. The prime minister also appeared to criticise Israel’s public diplomacy apparatus, saying “the problem is that there aren’t any people. You are surrounded by people who don’t know how to string two words together in English.” In related news, Israel’s Channel 12 reported last night that Eylon Levy, the British-born spokesman who has fronted much of Israel’s English-language response since October 7th, has been suspended. The channel claims Levy has been sidelined following a complaint from the UK over a tweet Levy sent in reply to British Foreign Secretary Cameron over the question of aid. Cameron’s tweet said “We continue to urge Israel to allow more trucks into Gaza as the fastest way to get aid to those who need it,” to which Levy responded, in a tweet now deleted, “I hope you are also aware there are NO limits on the entry of food, water, medicine, or shelter equipment into Gaza, and in fact the crossings have EXCESS capacity… Test us. Send another 100 trucks a day to Kerem Shalom and we’ll get them in.”

6. A Shin Bet agent remains in serious condition following a terrorist attack near the Gush Etzion settlement Bloc in the West Bank yesterday. Ziad Hamran, 30, from the northern West Bank city of Jenin, opened fire on the agent and his colleague while they were conducting routine work. The second Shin Bet agent was lightly injured, while both agents managed to return fire and kill their attacker. It remains unclear whether Hamran was a source the agents were preparing to meet, or whether he followed their source to a meeting. While the major conflagration desired by Hamas in the West Bank in the aftermath of October 7th has not transpired, Israel has conducted nightly raids targeting known groups and individuals. Palestinian sources say over 400 have been killed in the West Bank since the start of the war in Gaza, most in clashes with Israeli forces.

7. Once again, throughout yesterday there were numerous rockets launched from Lebanon into several areas in Israeli territory. In one incident, two soldiers were lightly and moderately wounded from rocket fire toward Kibbutz Manara. The soldiers were evacuated to hospital to receive medical treatment. In addition, the IDF said that a suspected aerial target crossed from Lebanon into Israel in the area of Yiftach and was successfully intercepted. In a familiar pattern, the IDF returned fire to the source of the launches as well as attacking Hezbollah infrastructure in areas close to the border. In a separate incident, an IDF soldier identified a Hezbollah terrorist operating out of an observation post belonging to Hezbollah in the area of Marwahin. Following this, IDF fighter jets struck the post. According to Arab media reports, five senior commanders of pro-Iranian militias in , including a Hezbollah leader, were killed in an airstrike targeting the town of Mayadin in the eastern Deir ez-Zor area.

8. Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly announced last night that Ottawa would suspend arms exports to Israel. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in response: “I am sorry that the government of Canada is taking this step that undermines Israel’s right to self-defence in the face of Hamas murderers who carried out terrible crimes against humanity and against innocent Israelis, including the elderly, women and children. History will judge the current acts of Canada harshly.” As part of the same process, the Canadian Parliament last night passed a non-binding motion calling on the international community to work towards a two-state solution, after the initial wording which would have supported unilateral recognition of the Palestinian state was dropped. Other wording was also inserted to label Hamas as a terrorist organisation, affirm that Israel has a right to defend itself, and demand that Hamas release all hostages and lay down its arms.

9. The IDF has acknowledged that a cruise missile fired on Sunday penetrated Israel’s anti-missile air defence system. The missile, presumably launched by the Houthis in Yemen, entered Israeli air space from the Red Sea in the south and fell in open terrain north of the city of Eilat. The IDF further noted, the “target was monitored by IAF troops throughout the incident. No injuries were reported and no damage was caused,” but that the incident is under review. So far the Houthis have launched over 50 attacks directed towards Israel. Most have been intercepted by Israel’s Arrow defence systems, others by US naval vessels and even by Saudi Arabia when they crossed their airspace.

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