Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated March 28, 2024

March 28th – Day 173 of the war: News in Brief

1. Three people have been injured in a terror attack in the Jordan Valley this morning. A 30-year-old man is in moderate condition after being shot, and another man in his 20s and a 13-year-old boy lightly hurt after a gunman, disguised in IDF uniform, opened fire on vehicles, including a bullet-proofed school bus, on the Route 90 highway that intersects the village of Auja. Elsewhere in the West Bank, three Palestinians were killed during an Israeli raid in Jenin yesterday. As troops looked to arrest wanted men, two gunmen were killed by a drone strike and a third by IDF fire after troops responded to his throwing an explosive device. During the raid, a vehicle containing primed explosives was safely destroyed, several Palestinians detained, and weapons seized. Periodic violence has continued in the West Bank since the start of Ramadan, though not the major escalation desired by Hamas. Since October 7^th, the IDF has arrested around 3,600 West Banke Palestinians, including more than 1,600 with Hamas affiliations. The Palestinians say over 450 have been killed in that time, the majority in clashes with the IDF.

2. Intensification of the fighting has continued on Israel’s northern border following the death of an Israeli civilian yesterday. According to Lebanese sources, 16 people were killed yesterday in two separate IDF attack in southern Lebanon, making it the highest death toll in a single day since the war begun. Seven of those killed were part of al-Jamal al-Islamiyya terror cell that was attempting an infiltration into Israel. In a separate incident, the IDF targeted a Hezbollah cell. According to Hezbollah, six of their fighters were killed, taking Hezbollah’s causalities to 258 since the war begun. The other fatalities are understood to be affiliated with the Shite Amal movement. In parallel, Hezbollah has continued to fire rockets and anti-tank missiles into northern Israel, with at least 10 rockets launched so far this morning. Last night the head of the IDF Northern Command, Maj Gem Ori Gordin, released a statement saying, “We are at war. We have been at war for almost half a year now, and it doesn’t end with Hezbollah. Tonight, we are operating against al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya, a successful thwarting of a large number of operatives, and this morning Hezbollah itself decided to respond against Kiryat Shmona. We are conducting very significant strikes against Hezbollah, and we will continue to be aggressive in order to strike and push Hezbollah back significantly. We are determined to change the security situation in the north so that the residents can return to the north safely and with a sense of security. On the other hand, we are striking Hezbollah very powerfully and strongly… and also causing a lot of damage in the area where it operates. If we understand that we need to act, we will act tonight as well, and the readiness is there.” 18 Israelis have been killed in the north – 11 soldiers and 7 civilians.

3. According to US officials, Prime Minister Netanyahu has broached rescheduling the meetings between Israeli and US officials he cancelled earlier this week after the US abstained on a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution. The central US focus of the scheduled diplomatic mission of Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and National Security Council chair Hanegbi was to have been finding creative solutions as an alternative to an IDF ground operation in Rafah. White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby yesterday gave an interview to Israel’s Channel 12. Where he struck an empathetic tone regarding Israel’s predicament, noting “Hamas has made clear that they’d like nothing better than to conduct another slaughter like they did on the 7th of October,” he said, “and that’s why we’re continuing to support Israel in their self-defence needs.” On Rafah, Kirby said “we recognise that there’s a need to go after Hamas… Hamas still represents a viable threat and we know that there are Hamas fighters in Rafah.” However, “we don’t believe that going in on the ground in Rafah is a good idea in a major way, that there are other ways to get after that threat.” Meanwhile, Netanyahu defended his decision to cancel the trip, in a meeting with Florida Republican Senator Rick Scott. “The bad thing about the US decision,” Netanyahu said, “was it encouraged Hamas to take a hard line and to believe that international pressure will prevent Israel from freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas.” His response was “a message to Hamas: ‘Don’t bet on this pressure, it’s not going to work.’ I hope they got the message.” Israeli media reports suggest that Israel has begun to prepare for an operation in Rafah, including by purchasing 40,000 tents from China which might be used to shelter evacuated civilians.

4. An IDF soldier, First Sgt. Nissim Kahlon, was killed in action in the southern Gaza Strip yesterday. Kahlon was searching a building in Khan Yunis when a gunman in the building opened fire, killing him and wounding another soldier. Kahlon’s death brings the total number of troops killed on and since October 7^th to 597; 253 since the ground operation in Gaza began. Elsewhere in Gaza, the IDF and Shin Bet continue to conduct precise operational activities in Shifa Hospital and in the area of Al Amal. Since the beginning of the latest operation in and around Shifa ten days ago, the IDF says 200 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters have been eliminated. Israel continues to work to protect the hospital and its operations. During military activity yesterday, the IDF Spokesperson’s Office said “troops evacuated civilians, patients, and medical teams to alternative medical facilities that the IDF set up to enable proper medical treatment to continue.” In missions in Al Amal in Khan Yunis, troops found weapons, explosive devices, and mortar shells. The Israeli Air Force also struck several targets in Gaza yesterday, including terror tunnels and an underground launcher.

5. The state last night asked the High Court of Justice for an extension until 2.00pm today to present its answer to petitions about the ultra-Orthodox exemption from the military draft. Having failed to introduce a legislative solution on the question when previous legislation expired in July last year, the temporary delay afforded the government will run out next week, after which the government will technically be required to cease funding for Yeshivas and ultra-Orthodox men will be liable for drafting. Legislation guaranteeing ultra-Orthodox men in full-time Torah study continued exemption from the draft was promised by Netanyahu to his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners when the current government was established. However, as well as widespread criticism from the opposition, Netanyahu has faced push-back from within his own party, most notably Defence Minister Gallant and Ministers Dichter and Barkat, and from war cabinet Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot. A cabinet meeting scheduled for Tuesday was postponed when it became clear than Netanyahu’s mooted solution would not have the required support. The strains of six months of war have laid bare wider Israeli resentments at the inequality of the burden placed on non-ultra-Orthodox Israelis. Ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to quit the coalition if their demands for a total exemption are not met, and so Netanyahu is faced with a seemingly insoluble conundrum in that any legislation which would satisfy the ultra-Orthodox would be opposed by Gallant and Gantz and would also almost certainly fail to meet the standard of equality imposed by the High Court

March 27, 2024

March 27th – Day 172 of the war: News in Brief

1. A 25-year-old man has died after the paper factory he was in in Kiryat Shmona’s industrial zone was struck by a Hezbollah rocket this morning. Hezbollah unleashed a barrage of at least 30 rockets on the northern city. It claims the attack is in response to an overnight Israeli airstrike on Habbariyeh in southern Lebanon which reportedly killed seven people. The IDF confirmed last night’s strike and said it had killed a senior member of the Jamaa al-Islamiya terror group who had previously plotted terror attacks against Israel. Jamaa al-Islamiya head Sheikh Mohammed Takkoush claimed this week that his group had been coordinating with both Hezbollah and Hamas. Cooperation with Hezbollah was “on the rise and this is being reflected in the field,” he said. Recent days have seen the latest escalations in the trading of hostilities on the northern front. Around 50 launches on northern Israel from southern Lebanon were attempted yesterday. Both sides have particularly targeted the enemy’s aerial capabilities. Hezbollah yesterday fired anti-tank missiles at Israel’s Mt. Meron base, while reports claim that a few days ago it targeted an Iron Dome battery with two suicide drones. The IDF has continued to respond, sometimes deep into Lebanese territory. This week it targeted a military compound used by Hizbullah aerial units 120 kilometres from the border. With Iran resupplying Hezbollah’s arms through its personnel in Syria, foreign reports also suggest that 15 operatives were killed last night in attacks on pro-Iranian militia targets in Syria. Since October 7th, both Israel and Hezbollah have sought to keep their hostilities from spreading to all-out war, but miscalculations and mistakes could see the situation escalate quickly.

2. Israel’s lead negotiators have returned from Qatar, after Hamas rejected a compromise on a hostage release/ceasefire deal. According to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, “Hamas has once again… repeated its extreme demands: an immediate halt to the war, the complete withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip and leaving in place its administration so that it can repeat, time and again, the massacre of October 7, as it has promised to do. Hamas rebuffed all US offers for a compromise, while celebrating the Security Council’s resolution. Israel will not address Hamas’s delusional demands.” According to Channel 12 News, the gaps include the American proposal to release 700 Palestinian prisoners while Hamas continues to demand 950 (in exchange for 40 hostages). Out of the US’s suggested 700, 100 would be ‘heavyweight’ terrorists serving life sentences for murder. Hamas is demanding 150 with the ability to choose them. The US has suggested a gradual, partial return for residents to the northern Gaza Strip (with Israel’s consent), whilst Hamas continues to demand their full return. The overall assessment is that despite these gaps, a deal could still be achieved if both sides are willing to compromise. There remains a sense that Hamas is hedging bets to see if the last two weeks of Ramadan will lead to increased violence in other sectors that they can exploit to increase the pressure on Israel. Of the 134 hostages held in Gaza, Israel’s assessment is that 98 are still alive. Yesterday the IDF confirmed that 35-year-old Uriel Baruch of Jerusalem, who was kidnapped from the area of the Nova festival on October 7, was murdered in captivity. Baruch was a father of two. His body is being held by Hamas.

3. In Gaza, the IDF continues to conduct precise operations in Shifa Hospital and its environs. Over the last day, troops located weapons and killed several Hamas fighters in the area. Further IDF operations are ongoing in both central Gaza and in Al Amal and Al-Qarara in the Khan Yunis area. The IDF has also released footage of interrogations of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) gunmen apprehended in Shifa. One states that “600 to 1,000 Hamas operatives are hiding in the hospital.” Israel has also confirmed recent reports that Hamas’s deputy military chief Marwan Issa was killed in a strike earlier this month. Issa served as deputy to Hamas’s Gazan number two, Mohammed Deif. The IDF also confirmed that another senior Hamas member, Head of Administrative and Combat Support Ghazai Abu Tamaa, had also been killed.

4. In an interview with The New York Times, freed hostage Amit Soussana has spoken of the attacks and sexual assaults she suffered at the hands of her Hamas guard. Soussana, 40, who was released on the last day of a week-long hostage release/ceasefire in November, said that around two and a half weeks into her captivity, “he came towards me and shoved the gun at my forehead. He sat me on the edge of the bath. And I closed my legs. And I resisted. And he kept punching me and put his gun in my face. Then he dragged me to the bedroom.” The guard then forced Soussana to remove her towel, groped her, and forced her to “commit a sexual act on him.” Soussana’s testimony is the first time a freed hostage has spoken publicly of the sexual violence they suffered. Of the guard, she said: “You can’t stand looking at him — but you have to: He’s the one who’s protecting you, he’s your guard. You’re there with him and you know that every moment it can happen again. You’re completely dependent on him.”

5. Following Netanyahu’s decision to cancel Minister Dermer and National Security Advisor Hanegbi’s trip to the US in the wake of the US abstaining on the United Nations Security Council ceasefire resolution earlier this week, Defence Minister Gallant has continued his own trip to Washington. Gallant met with both US Defense Secretary Austin and CIA head William yesterday. He told Austin that the negotiations on the hostages and Hamas’s positions require that the US and Israel remain on the same page on military and diplomatic efforts. Gallant stressed that Israel and the United States share 100 percent of their values and 99 percent of their interests. Gallant also made a public video statement where he said that Israel has “no moral right to stop the war in Gaza” adding that if a “clear and absolute victory [is not reached] in Gaza, it could bring the war in the north closer”. With the continued supply of US arms crucial to Israel’s war effort, Gallant also “discussed with American officials the importance of maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region – including air capabilities and essential platforms.” Of the ‘day after’ in Gaza, he said that Israel “must build a local alternative” to Hamas.

6. A scheduled cabinet meeting was first postponed and then cancelled yesterday after Prime Minister Netanyahu failed to come to an agreement with ultra-Orthodox parties on a military draft arrangement. The law allowing young ultra-Orthodox men to avoid service in the IDF by registering as being in full-time Torah study expired last week, and the government was supposed to have legislated a new one by this week. Netanyahu’s original mooted solution would have seen a bill introduced which did not include targets for ultra-Orthodox recruitment. Instead, it raised the age of their exemption to 35, guaranteed that those who don’t enlist do not face financial penalties, and included a plan to set up designated ultra-Orthodox units in the IDF. War cabinet ministers Gallant and Gantz both objected to the plan, as did Attorney General Baharav-Miara, who said she would not be able to defend the proposal in court. Netanyahu then submitted a moderated plan yesterday, rowing back on some of the commitments in the original. As well as Gallant and Gantz’s criticisms that the plans do not go far enough in introducing ultra-Orthodox service, Netanyahu is facing threats to withdraw from the coalition from the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party, who object to any attempt to end the traditional exemption. Dozens of IDF reserve commanders have also written to Netanyahu protesting an “extremely unequal” proposal which they say would harm Israel’s security

March 26, 2024

UNSC passes ceasefire resolution, US abstains

What’s happened: The US abstained yesterday rather than use its veto on a non-binding UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and a release of the hostages.

The text of the resolution which passed with the council’s 14 other votes in favour – including from the UK – “demands an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan respected by all parties leading to a lasting sustainable ceasefire.”
It also “emphasises the urgent need to expand the flow of humanitarian assistance to and reinforce the protection of civilians in the entire Gaza Strip and reiterates its demand for the lifting of all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale.”
Elsewhere, the resolution “demands the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.”
Following the vote, US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in a statement: “Certain key edits were ignored, including our request to add a condemnation of Hamas. And we did not agree with everything in this resolution. For that reason, we were unfortunately not able to vote yes. However, as I said before, we fully support some of the critical objectives in this nonbinding resolution. And we believe it was important for the Council to speak out and make clear that any ceasefire must come with the release of all hostages.”
In a statement, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Office called the abstention “a clear retreat from the consistent US position in the Security Council since the beginning of the war.” “Today’s resolution,” it added, “gives Hamas hope that international pressure will force Israel to accept a ceasefire without the release of our hostages, thus harming both the war effort and the effort to release the hostages.”
Netanyahu also cancelled the scheduled departure of Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and National Security Council Director Hanegbi, who were set to follow Defence Minister Gallant to the US for talks with US counterparts, centred on Israel’s promised ground operation in Rafah.
In response to that, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said, “The prime minister’s office seems to be indicating in public statements that we somehow changed here. We haven’t. And we get to decide what our policy is. It seems like the prime minister’s office is choosing to create a perception of daylight here, when they don’t need to do that.”
Another US official called Netanyahu’s decision “sudden”, “excessive”, and as “stemming from Israel’s domestic political tensions.”
Minister Benny Gantz said, “the right thing would be for the delegation to go. It would have been good were the prime minister to go in person to meet with Biden.”
Both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) welcomed the passing of the resolution, the PA’s UN envoy Riyad Mansour including in his speech to the Assembly a reference to “our Hamas brothers.”
In parallel, contrary to yesterday’s reports that negotiators in Doha might be inching towards a hostage release deal, Hamas announced a negative response to the US bridging proposal which would have seen between 700 and 800 Palestinian security prisoners, including around 100 life-term prisoners, released in exchange for 40 hostages among women, children, and the sick and elderly being held in Gaza.
Hamas replied that its position remained unchanged and that only a full ceasefire and IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip would be enough to secure a deal.
Despite ongoing IDF operations, several rockets were launched out of northern Gaza yesterday. The first barrage of 14 targeted Ashkelon and Ashdod. The Iron Dome then intercepted three rockets that were fired at Sderot last night.

Context: Yesterday’s resolution marks the first time since October 7^th that the US has declined to exercise its power to veto a UNSC resolution calling for an end to the war in Gaza.

It comes days after a softer-worded US-initiated resolution was vetoed by China and Russia.
The US abstention is being interpreted as the latest and most significant indicator of the increasing tension between the Biden Administration and the Netanyahu government over the conduct of the war and post-war planning.
Despite Netanyahu’s approach of calling off meetings with the US, Defence Minister Gallant endorses an even closer working relationship with the US administration.
Foreign Secretary Cameron responded to the UNSC vote on Twitter/X, saying that the international community now needed to work towards “removing Hamas’s capacity to launch attacks against Israel”, “Hamas no longer being in charge of Gaza”, and the formation of a new Palestinian Government as a step towards a two state solution.
Israeli analysts have reflected the difficulty of achieving these objectives without continuing to pursue military operations in Gaza, including in Rafah.
US criticisms, which have become increasingly public in recent months, centre chiefly on the supply of aid to the Gaza Strip and a prospective operation in Rafah it has called “a red line”.
Israel, for its part, has continued to insist that any aid blockages are not on its side, that sufficient supplies are reaching the Strip, and that an operation in Rafah is essential to the decisive defeat of Hamas which has been supported as a war aim by its allies.
On Monday, COGAT announced that over 200 aid trucks were inspected and transferred via Kerem Shalom and Nitzana.
The Israeli position is also that maintaining military pressure on Hamas’s leadership and remaining battalions is the best way to secure a release of the remaining 130 hostages, and that seeking to curtail or limit its operations in Gaza plays into Hamas’s hands. It will point to the timing of Hamas’s latest refusal of a deal, coming after the UNSC vote, as further evidence of this.
During his meeting with US National Security Advisor Sullivan yesterday, Gallant said “we have no moral right to stop the war in Gaza until we return all the hostages home. The lack of a decisive victory in Gaza may bring us closer to war in the north.”
Sullivan said of their meeting: “I conveyed President Biden’s iron-clad support for Israel’s security and defence against all threats, including Iran. I welcomed Yoav’s commitment to take additional steps to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.”

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Gallant remains in the US despite Netanyahu’s cancelling of Dermer and Hanegbi’s trip. He is due to meet for talks with his US counterpart Secretary Austin today.

Despite Hamas’s apparent intransigence, there is still hope that the hostage talks in Qatar will bear fruit

March 25, 2024

Chance for progress on US hostage deal proposal

What’s happened: Reports suggest that there is a chance for agreement on a hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas following negotiations in Qatar.

According to the reports, Israel has agreed to a US bridging proposal which would see between 700 and 800 Palestinian security prisoners, including around 100 life-term prisoners, released in exchange for 40 hostages among women, children, and the sick and elderly being held in Gaza.
It is suggested that there is also movement on one of Hamas’s key demands – the return of northern Gazans to their previous areas of residence. Israel is said to be prepared to consider the gradual return of more than 2,000 people each day once the hostages begin to be released. Israel is unlikely to agree to the return of Gazan men.
Elsewhere, Prime Minister Netanyahu said yesterday that Israel would operate in the city of Rafah, Hamas’s last stronghold, despite US and international pressure not to do so.
“On October 7,” Netanyahu said, “Hamas committed what even President Biden called absolute evil. Absolute evil cannot be defeated when it is left intact in Rafah. We will enter Rafah and we will achieve total victory.”
Netanyahu’s remarks came during a reading with soldiers of the Megillah, the Purim story from the Book of Esther, in which Haman, the enemy of the Jewish people is defeated. “We destroyed Haman, we will also destroy Sinwar,” said the prime minister.
The IDF also began to operate yesterday in the vicinity of Al Amal Hospital in Khan Yunis, following intelligence that Hamas operatives have been using the facility.
Meanwhile, operations continue in Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, where troops found large quantities of weapons. 20 operatives were killed in the hospital over the last day, and others arrested.
IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Hagari said last night that Hamas had hijacked Shifa and was using its patients as human shields. “Hamas is destroying the Shifa Hospital,” he said, and “is firing from inside the Shifa emergency room and throwing explosive devices from the Shifa burn ward.”
30 IDF troops were injured in combat over the weekend, 25 of them in Gaza. Two are listed as in severe condition.

Context: After weeks of frustrated negotiations, a senior Israeli official put the latest proposals’ chances of success at 50-50.

The Israeli negotiating team, led to by Mossad head Barnea and including Shin Bet Director Bar and the IDF’s Nitzan Alon, flew back to Israel from Doha last night. US CIA Director Burns also left.
The proposal reportedly accepted by Israel is similar to one floated by Qatar three weeks ago, and rejected by Israel then. A crucial difference, however, is that the current US proposal allows for the release of fewer life-term Palestinian prisoners than the Qatari proposal did.
The current framing is far more accommodating to Hamas than the proposals originally mooted in the Paris negotiations, which would have seen around 400 prisoners – and only 25 life-termers – released.
In previous responses, Hamas has pushed for a full Israeli withdrawal of forces from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire. Over the weekend, a Hamas official once more complained that Israel “refuses to agree on a comprehensive ceasefire and refuses the complete withdrawal of its forces from Gaza.”
The US has repeatedly warned Israel against an operation in Rafah, and continues to do so. Speaking on ABC’s ‘This Week’ yesterday, Vice-President Harris said “we have been clear in multiple conversations and in every way that any major military operation in Rafah would be a huge mistake.” Asked if there would be consequences from the US towards Israel if Israel went ahead, Harris said “I am ruling out nothing.”
President Biden has previously referred to Rafah as a US “red line”, and US officials suggested earlier in March that the Administration would consider placing conditions on its vital military aid to Israel if an operation went ahead.
Rafah is home to four of Hamas’s remaining battalions, and an estimated 1.5 million Gazans – the city’s usual population of 200,000 having been greatly swelled by Gazans who have fled fighting elsewhere in the Strip.
Israel has previously pledged to undertake an evacuation of the civilian population prior to any operation. Such an evacuation is hugely complex and demanding.
US media has reported that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) operatives who have recently regrouped in Shifa Hospital may include senior leaders. The reports suggest they considered that Israel had ceased its operations in northern Gaza and that it was safe to return.
Since Israel began its latest operation in Shifa last Monday, the IDF says that 500 Hamas and PIJ operatives have been arrested, while 170 are thought to have been killed.
A notable arrest last week was Mahmoud Qawasmeh, a high-ranking Hamas official who was an instigator of West Bank terror.

Looking ahead: Negotiators will now await Hamas’s response to the US proposal. A reply is expected within two days, with the relay of information to Hamas’s Gazan leadership continuing to take time. The final decision on accepting or rejecting the proposal is likely to rest with its Gazan leader, Yahya Sinwar.

Israeli Defence Minister Gallant left last night for an official visit to Washington. He will meet the US secretaries of defence and state, the national security adviser, and the CIA director. Before leaving, Gallant said they would be discussing the war and the return of the hostages, as well as the situation in the north and the ongoing supply of US arms to Israel. Reports over the last month have suggested that the supply of military aid has slowed.
Minister Dermer and head of Israel’s National Security Council Hanegbi are set to follow Gallant to the US later this week, for further discussion on Rafah

March 22, 2024

Understanding Israel-UK Weapons Trade

Recent reports suggest that the UK is considering ceasing arms sales to Israel. This paper looks at the current state of military trade between the two nations, in the context of strong bilateral ties.

UK to Israel arms sales

While the UK is considered Israel’s second-staunchest western ally after the US, UK arms imports do not represent a substantial part of Israel’s defence procurement. In addition to its own sophisticated domestic production, Israel is a substantial importer of arms, at least 70 percent of which come from the USA. Imports from France, Germany, and Italy also constitute a larger percentage than those from the UK.

UK-Israel defence trade is of mutual benefit, and the relative importance of the trade relationship is arguably greater to the UK military than to the IDF.

Data from Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT), a UK based pressure group that seeks an end to the global arms trade, shows the UK granted licences worth £574 million for companies to export to Israel since 2008, the year country level data was first made available.

A substantial proportion of this total was in 2017, when £221 million worth of licences were approved. CAAT says the single biggest licence in value, worth £182 million, was issued in October 2017, for “technology for military radars”. Licences were also granted for components for military radars, electronic warfare and targeting equipment, and components of aircraft and helicopters. [1]

Out of those goods licensed by the UK for export to Israel, a large proportion are for dual use goods for non-military use, or for goods for incorporation in Israel before onward export to a third country. Within the military goods, the majority are for components rather than complete systems or sub-systems. Many UK licences for military equipment are for components for incorporation into US-manufactured platforms which were then re-exported to Israel.

The UK exports nearly 25 times the value of arms to Saudi Arabia as it does to Israel. According to CAAT figures, since 2008, countries ahead of Israel in terms of receiving UK arms are, in descending order: Saudi Arabia (£14bn); United States of America (£8.3bn); France (£5.2bn); Qatar (£3.5bn); Italy (£2.8bn); Oman (£2.5bn); Turkey (£2.3bn); India (£2.3bn); Norway (£2.2bn); United Arab Emirates (£1.7bn); Germany (£1.3bn); South Korea (£1.2bn); Indonesia (£1.0bn); Spain (£883m); Sweden (£874m); Canada (£861m); Taiwan (£790m); Netherlands (£788m); Brazil (£724m); Australia (£691m); Malaysia (£673m)

While the UK’s precise contribution to total Israeli arms imports is difficult to quantify [2], Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data lists Italy as Israel’s third largest supplier of arms, with 0.9 percent of Israel’s total imports. The UK’s share can therefore be reliably quantified as less than 0.9 percent of Israel’s total.

Israel to UK arms sales

Imported Israeli arms have protected UK service personnel in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and in other combat deployments. A theoretical cessation of arms trade between the two countries would in fact likely to have a more direct impact on UK operations than on the IDF.

The UK is the world’s thirteenth largest importer of arms (two places higher than Israel), and Israel is its third largest supplier, accounting for 2.7 percent of UK arms imports according to the most recent data (the USA is by far the largest, accounting for 89 percent of UK imports.)

Israeli arms sales to the UK increased significantly from 2006, due to the British need in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Significant arms imported include:

The Hermes-450 UAV, a multirole high performance tactical Unmanned Air System (UAS) developed by Elbit Systems which serves as an Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) platform and which is designed to support long endurance and concealed operations. The Hermes was used extensively by Britain in Afghanistan between 2007 and 2014. In 2013 British-controlled Hermes 450s had completed 70,000 hours flight time in Afghanistan.
The Watchkeeper UAV is a tactical system, modelled on the Elbit Hermes 450, which provides the UK armed forces with intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) capability. It is produced through a joint venture of Elbit and Thales UK in a contract priced at £800-million.
M-113 Spike-NLOS, an Israeli fourth-generation fire-and-forget anti-tank guided missile and anti-personnel missile with a tandem-charge HEAT warhead.

Elbit’s Systems UK has won 25 public contracts, totalling more than £355m, since 2012, according to data supplied by Tussell, which provides details on UK government contracts. Elbit also runs a joint venture called Affinity Training with US company KBR. Affinity has a contract with the UK MoD worth £500m over 18 years to train UK pilots at RAF Cranwell in Lincolnshire.

Context – arms sales during the war in Gaza

Activists have called on the UK to reconsider Israeli import licences in light of the war in Gaza. Several countries, such as Canada, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium – like the UK all relatively small arms providers to Israel – have suspended or limited sales for the duration of the war.

On 12 December 2023 the Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, decided that he was “satisfied that there was good evidence to support a judgment that Israel is committed to comply[ing] with International Humanitarian Law” and decided to recommend not to suspend or revoke extant licences but to keep them under careful review. On 18 December 2023 the Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Kemi Badenoch, decided, following a review, not to suspend or stop granting export licences to Israel. Instead, she decided to “keep her decisions about whether or not to grant, revoke, or refuse licences under continuing, careful review, in view of the current hostilities in Gaza”. [3]

In late February, the High Court dismissed a case brought by the Palestinian human rights organisation Al-Haq and the UK-based Global Legal Action Network (Glan) urging the suspension of UK arms sales to Israel. The court found that a “high hurdle” needed to be cleared to prove that Badenoch and Cameron’s reasoning was “irrational”, and that there was “no realistic prospect of that hurdle being surmounted here.” Also in February, the UK ceased cooperation with Israel on maintenance of F-35s at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus for the duration of the war in Gaza.

Temporary UK suspensions of arms sales to Israel is not without precedent. During Operation Protective Edge in 2014, the UK Government reviewed its export licences to Israel and “found that the vast majority of exports currently licensed for Israel are not for items that could be used by Israeli forces in operations in Gaza in response to attacks by Hamas.” It temporarily suspended 12 licences which did meet that criteria.

In last Friday’s Daily Telegraph, Charles Moore wrote, responding to speculation of a suspension of arms sales to Israel: “In the present case, it is safe to say that, if Israel did not make, buy and sell arms with great skill, it would long ago have been destroyed. It follows that since a government like ours is friendly to Israel, it should resist the use of international law to assist through courts the undermining of a country, which its enemies have so far failed to achieve in 75 years of intermittent violence…Unlike the United States, we are not Israel’s arms lifeline. Britain sells less than £50 million worth of arms-related material to Israel annually. We buy much more from the Israelis than we sell them. Some of what they get from us is useful in tasks like reclaiming Gazan tunnels from Hamas, but its loss would not be materially large.”

Moore touched on the issue of potential double standards of selling to other countries. “It would make it much harder for Britain to conduct future arms sales to countries like Saudi Arabia, whose help will be needed if plans for a durable Middle Eastern peace are revived. It would make Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Iran gleeful… autocrats who hold all law in contempt but love it when it ties their opponents up in knots – Putin, Xi, Hamas etc. They note that our deepening engagement with international legal processes seems increasingly to mean that we are the losing stomach for any long fight. Europeans called Putin ‘delusional’ when he invaded Ukraine, but the sad truth may be that we are the more deluded.”

Conclusion

Israel is considered to be a first-tier ally of the UK. UK-Israel military cooperation has been growing over the last decade, with the relationship viewed as mutually beneficial. The 2021 joint ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ signalled the growing importance of the relationship, and led to 2023’s ‘2030 roadmap for UK-Israel bilateral relations’. This accord recognised that “The UK and Israel enjoy a close strategic partnership, with extensive defence and security cooperation to tackle shared threats, protect our mutual security interests and develop stronger capabilities. For both the UK and Israel, this is one of the most important defence and security relationships, encompassing a broad range of activities.”

Both militaries share a commitment to improving and integrating their multi-domain capabilities in maritime, land, air, space, and cyber and electromagnetic. They share similar interests in the region. While Israel feels the Iranian threat far more acutely due to its relative geographic proximity, both countries wish to prevent Iran achieving a nuclear capability, curb its advanced ballistic missile programme and counter Iranian proxies, particularly in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and the shipping lanes of the Gulf.

The sales of UK-manufactured arms and other security equipment to Israel is a sign of the two countries’ shared security interests, (though of less material significance than the kinds of cooperation described above).

In threatening to suspend sales, the UK is sending the message – likely in consort with the US – that it has serious reservations over the conduct of the war in Gaza and its humanitarian impact. Doing so while continuing to affirm Israel’s right to self-defence against a Hamas enemy whose genocidal intent was made explicit on October 7th, the UK is trying to act the role of critical but loyal friend.

In Israel, however, the move will be seen as having little material impact but as sending a dangerous message to Hamas and to Israel’s other enemies – that Israel’s western coalition is fraying and support for its campaign to defend itself against Hamas waning.

1. NB Total licence value does not necessarily indicate total sale value, only the total amount the licence permits the seller to trade to Israel. A full list of UK to Israel defence sale licences both granted and refused between 1 July 2017 to 30 June 2022 can be found in Appendix 1 (page 25) here.)

2. Britain’s open licence system is what makes precise calculations hard. The F35 combat aircraft is one example: 15 percent of every F35 is made by British industry, with much of this covered under the open licence system and therefore not included in licence calculations. CAAT estimates the value of the components UK industry supplies for Israeli F35s to be worth at least £336m since 2016. Possessing advanced stealth capabilities, the F35 is an important weapon in Israel’s war in Gaza, and in its defence against both Hezbollah aggression in the north and Houthi attacks from the Red Sea.

3. The UK bases decisions on arms exports on eight separate criteria. The purpose of these criteria, says the government, is “to promote global security and facilitate responsible exports. They help ensure that goods exported from the United Kingdom do not contribute to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) or a destabilising accumulation of conventional weapons. They protect the United Kingdom’s security and our expertise by restricting who has access to sensitive technologies and capabilities. Export controls also help ensure that controlled items are not used for internal repression or in the commission of serious violations of international humanitarian law. They are one of the means by which we implement a range of international legal commitments including the Arms Trade Treaty.”

March 21, 2024

March 21st – Day 167 of the war: News in Brief

1. This morning, Yediot Ahronot front page leads with a story suggesting that the UK has stunned Israel by saying that unless diplomats or Red Cross representatives are allowed to visit terrorists from Hamas’s elite Nukhba unit detained in Israel, the UK might cease arms sales to Israel. UK Foreign Secretary Cameron has reportedly warned Jerusalem that unless conditions change, it can expect to see Europe-wide shifts in arms sales policy. A team of UK lawyers visited Israel two weeks ago, with London concerned that Red Cross officials have not been allowed to visit the detainees, in line with the demands of international law. Israel opposes such visits on the grounds that according to international law it can object to them on the basis of security exceptions. It should be noted, too, that Red Cross access to the hostages in Gaza has been repeatedly denied by Hamas. The UK threat bears all the hallmarks of a coordinated effort by the US and Israel’s other western allies to pressure Jerusalem to change its policies in the prosecution of the war. “A plague of sanctions against Israel is liable to break out, one that could spread across the world,” a senior government official told Yediot Ahronot. Israeli Foreign Minister Katz sent a letter to Cameron, his counterpart, via Israel’s ambassador in London, Tzipi Hotovely saying, as summarised by Yediot Ahronot, that “now is the time to strengthen the State of Israel, not to weaken it, especially at a time that negotiations for a hostage release deal with the Hamas terror organisation are underway. Katz said there is ‘no room’ for steps of this kind (meaning weapons bans) at this critical moment in the talks on the hostage issue, and added that any decision that hurts Israel sends a message to Hamas that they can draw out negotiations and block implementation of a deal.”

2. Mixed reports are emerging from Doha concerning progress being made in hostage/ceasefire negotiations. US Secretary of State Blinken said that progress has been made, and that the distance between the two sides on a mutually agreeable deal is narrowing. An agreement is “very much possible,” Blinken said in an interview to Saudi media during a visit to the kingdom. “We worked very hard with Qatar, Egypt and Israel to put a strong proposal on the table,” Blinken said. “Hamas wouldn’t accept it. They came back with other demands. The negotiators are working on that right now, but I believe it’s very much doable, and it’s very much necessary. If Hamas cares at all about the people it purports to represent, then it would reach an agreement because that would have the immediate effect of a ceasefire, alleviating the tremendous suffering of people, bringing more humanitarian assistance in and then giving us the possibility of having something more lasting.” Israeli officials have been more circumspect, one telling The Washington Post, “this is not a negotiation that will end in days — it will end, maybe, in weeks.” Hamas’s Beirut-based official Osama Hamdan, meanwhile, claimed Israel’s response to Hamas’s latest terms had been “generally negative”.3. The military operation inside the Shifa Hospital compound in Gaza City is continuing. According to the IDF they have arrested 350 people, including dozens of high-ranking terrorists and key Hamas operatives. One of those arrested was Mahmoud Qawasmeh, a high-ranking Hamas official who was an instigator of West Bank terror. Infamously he was one of the people who planned the kidnapping and murder of the three Israeli teenagers Eyal Yifrah, Gil-Ad Shaer and Naftali Fraenkel, in summer 2014. The IDF revealed they found weapons throughout the hospital, including: Kalashnikov rifles, machine guns, magazines, mortars, grenades, RPGs, and combat gear, and that they have killed over 140 terrorists. The troops also found £2.37 million worth of US dollars and Jordanian dinars, funds that were earmarked for terrorist purposes. Perhaps the most significant discovery is high-quality intelligence material that surpassed expectations. This includes computers and personal files which, for example, included the salary payments made to the full Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) payroll, revealing the whole organisation’s personnel to the Shin Bet. At the same time the IDF has ensured the hospital staff, patients and civilians continue to receive food, water and Humanitarian Aid.

4. In a joint Shin Bet and IDF operation, Israel has killed two senior PIJ operatives in a strike on their vehicle in the area of Jenin. The targets were Ahmed Barakat, who shot and murdered Israeli civilian Meir Tamari in Hermesh in May 2023, and Muhammad Shuakhin, an Islamic Jihad commander of terrorist infrastructure in the Jenin area. Two other operatives were also killed. A joint IDF-Shin Bet statement said “the two operatives who were struck were involved in advancing significant terrorist activity and attacks on Israeli civilians. They were behind the recent attempt by a terrorist to enter into the heart of Israel in order to carry out a planned attack, which was thwarted by Israeli security forces on March 11, 2024. In addition, the terrorists directed an explosives attack against IDF soldiers on March 8, 2024, during which seven IDF soldiers were injured in the area of the Homesh Junction.” Elsewhere in the West Bank, two other Palestinians have been killed in clashes with an IDF brigade currently raiding the Nur Shams refugee camp in the Tulkarm area, while a Palestinian man was shot and wounded this morning by IDF troops in the southern West Bank. A search of his bag reportedly turned up a knife. Meanwhile, in Jenin, a young Palestinian man named Carim Jabarin was executed last night by PIJ for alleged “collaboration” with Israel. Jabarin was injured in clashes between PIJ and Palestinian Authority Security Forces, before being seized by PIJ operatives. Palestinian reports suggested one of his executioners was his own brother.5. IDF operations also continue in other areas of the Gaza Strip. IDF troops targeted another site in Gaza City where Hamas operatives had gathered ahead of a planned raid on Humanitarian Aid trucks. The IDF learned about their plans and during the attack killed 23 terrorists. The IDF also revealed that earlier in the week IDF fighter jets, “eliminated senior Hamas operatives in Rafah who assisted its military wing in establishing continued control, as well as operations in the field…. The senior operatives were the representatives of Hamas’ leadership in Rafah. As part of their roles, they managed the terror organisation’s activities in humanitarian zones and were responsible for coordination with Hamas operatives in the field.” Also in Khan Yunis, the IDF engaged with Hamas operatives and “destroyed dozens of [sites of] terrorist infrastructure.”

6. In the north, once again rocket attacks emanating from Lebanon continued throughout yesterday, including in the areas of Har Dov, Yir’on, Misgav Am, and Margaliot all close to border. As usual, in response, the IDF struck the sources of the fire. The Israeli Air Force also struck a Hezbollah military compound in the area of Houla, and observation posts in the areas of Kfarkela and Yaroun. Lebanese media with Hezbollah affiliation are reporting that an Israeli spy ring has been uncovered in the country. According to the report, two people were arrested, allegedly working for Israel, to whom they provided details about Beirut and the Dahiya neighbourhood.

March 20, 2024

March 20th – Day 166 of the war: News in Brief

1. The UK’s largest delivery of aid to Gaza since the start of the war has crossed the border and begun to be distributed. More than 2,000 tonnes of food aid is being distributed by the World Food Programme, adding to the 150 tonnes of UK funded relief items including blankets and tents, which arrived on Wednesday. According to COGAT, 248 trucks carrying Humanitarian Aid were yesterday inspected by Israel and transferred to Gaza. However, of those 248, only 126 Humanitarian Aid trucks were distributed by UN aid organisations, leaving 122 waiting to be distributed. Around two thirds of these trucks carry food, with the rest carrying medical equipment, water and shelter equipment. Israel has placed no limit on the amount of food that can enter the Gaza Strip with 29 of the food aid trucks entering yesterday making their way up to northern Gaza. Kamal Adwan Hospital was also restocked with medical supplies and Jabalia Health Centre was refuelled.

2. The IDF is continuing their targeted operation within the compound of the Shifa hospital in Gaza City. According to the IDF, “Over the past day, the troops have eliminated terrorists and located weapons in the hospital area, while preventing harm to civilians, patients, medical teams, and medical equipment.” According to the army they have killed, “approximately 90 terrorists in the area, the IDF and ISA have questioned over 300 suspects at the compound, and an additional 160 suspects have been transferred to Israeli territory for further questioning.” Among those arrested were “prominent terrorists” from Hamas who the IDF say were involved in directing terror in the West Bank, well as terrorists from the “Rocket Unit” of Palestinian Islamic Jihad. During the fighting a 51-year-old IDF reservist, Sebastian Haion, was killed in action. He is the 251^st IDF fatality since the ground incursion begun. In parallel, the IDF continues to operate against Hamas operatives and infrastructure across the Gaza Strip, including in Khan Yunis and central areas. In addition, Palestinian sources are reporting on an air strike in Rafah. Also yesterday, a rocket was launched from northern Gaza toward the city of Sderot, but fell inside the Gaza Strip. In response, an Israeli aircraft struck an operational Hamas tunnel shaft in the area of the launch.

3. In hostage negotiation talks in Doha, Israeli officials have received Hamas’s latest demands. These include: 40 hostages to be released in exchange for 950 prisoners, to be chosen by Hamas; 50 prisoners, including 30 “heavyweight” prisoners, to be chosen by Hamas and to be released in exchange for every female soldier being held captive (coming to a total of 250 prisoners for the female soldiers); a full civilian return of northern Gaza. Israeli news reports suggest that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar has shifted the priority focus from the release of “heavyweight” prisoners to the return of northern Gazans to their former places of residence. With Israel reluctant to agree to a full-scale return, if true this could prove a significant stumbling block in negotiations. Delays are expected, caused by the relay of information from Doha to Hamas’s Gazan leadership. One Israeli official told Channel 12: “Even if there is a foreign-based branch of Hamas, they have no mandate at all to make decisions. Every comma, every period takes between 24-36 hours. This is going to be a complicated process.” The Israeli delegation is said to have been given a limited remit by the political echelon, as a tactic to test the seriousness of Hamas’s commitment to a deal. Meanwhile in Tel Aviv, hostage families joined protesters demanding “No return from Qatar without a deal” in blocking northbound traffic on the Ayalon Highway this morning.

4. Two senior Israeli delegations will visit the US next week. The Government announced that one delegation, consisting of Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and National Security Council Director Hanegbi will conduct talks on a potential operation in Rafah, while Defence Minister Gallant will visit his US counterpart Lloyd Austin. The US will present Israel a plan designed to avoid a major operation in Rafah. The US plan would allow for targeted operations against Hamas, while focussing on stopping the supply of weapons smuggled to Hamas through the Egypt to Gaza Philadelphi Corridor. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office released a statement saying that in discussions with the US, “the prime minister stressed that he is determined to operate in Rafah in order to eliminate for good the remaining Hamas battalions while offering humanitarian solutions to the civilian population.”

5. Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that “there are elements in Israel who are cooperating with the Americans to prevent entry to Rafah.” Netanyahu also claimed that an all-for-all hostage deal, which would see all remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza freed in exchange for the full list of Palestinian security prisoners whose release is demanded by Hamas, was impossible. Referring to the current negotiation, whose terms would see 40 Israeli hostages released in return for a limited release of Palestinians, he said “If we don’t get the 40 hostages now, we’re not going to get any hostages at all.” Netanyahu came under fire in the meeting for his apparent agreement to a pilot programme allowing Palestinian workers from the West Bank back to work in Israel – a move supported by the military and intelligence establishments. The prime minister also appeared to criticise Israel’s public diplomacy apparatus, saying “the problem is that there aren’t any people. You are surrounded by people who don’t know how to string two words together in English.” In related news, Israel’s Channel 12 reported last night that Eylon Levy, the British-born spokesman who has fronted much of Israel’s English-language response since October 7^th, has been suspended. The channel claims Levy has been sidelined following a complaint from the UK over a tweet Levy sent in reply to British Foreign Secretary Cameron over the question of aid. Cameron’s tweet said “We continue to urge Israel to allow more trucks into Gaza as the fastest way to get aid to those who need it,” to which Levy responded, in a tweet now deleted, “I hope you are also aware there are NO limits on the entry of food, water, medicine, or shelter equipment into Gaza, and in fact the crossings have EXCESS capacity… Test us. Send another 100 trucks a day to Kerem Shalom and we’ll get them in.”

6. A Shin Bet agent remains in serious condition following a terrorist attack near the Gush Etzion settlement Bloc in the West Bank yesterday. Ziad Hamran, 30, from the northern West Bank city of Jenin, opened fire on the agent and his colleague while they were conducting routine work. The second Shin Bet agent was lightly injured, while both agents managed to return fire and kill their attacker. It remains unclear whether Hamran was a source the agents were preparing to meet, or whether he followed their source to a meeting. While the major conflagration desired by Hamas in the West Bank in the aftermath of October 7^th has not transpired, Israel has conducted nightly raids targeting known groups and individuals. Palestinian sources say over 400 have been killed in the West Bank since the start of the war in Gaza, most in clashes with Israeli forces.

7. Once again, throughout yesterday there were numerous rockets launched from Lebanon into several areas in Israeli territory. In one incident, two soldiers were lightly and moderately wounded from rocket fire toward Kibbutz Manara. The soldiers were evacuated to hospital to receive medical treatment. In addition, the IDF said that a suspected aerial target crossed from Lebanon into Israel in the area of Yiftach and was successfully intercepted. In a familiar pattern, the IDF returned fire to the source of the launches as well as attacking Hezbollah infrastructure in areas close to the border. In a separate incident, an IDF soldier identified a Hezbollah terrorist operating out of an observation post belonging to Hezbollah in the area of Marwahin. Following this, IDF fighter jets struck the post. According to Arab media reports, five senior commanders of pro-Iranian militias in Syria, including a Hezbollah leader, were killed in an airstrike targeting the town of Mayadin in the eastern Deir ez-Zor area.

8. Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly announced last night that Ottawa would suspend arms exports to Israel. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in response: “I am sorry that the government of Canada is taking this step that undermines Israel’s right to self-defence in the face of Hamas murderers who carried out terrible crimes against humanity and against innocent Israelis, including the elderly, women and children. History will judge the current acts of Canada harshly.” As part of the same process, the Canadian Parliament last night passed a non-binding motion calling on the international community to work towards a two-state solution, after the initial wording which would have supported unilateral recognition of the Palestinian state was dropped. Other wording was also inserted to label Hamas as a terrorist organisation, affirm that Israel has a right to defend itself, and demand that Hamas release all hostages and lay down its arms.

9. The IDF has acknowledged that a cruise missile fired on Sunday penetrated Israel’s anti-missile air defence system. The missile, presumably launched by the Houthis in Yemen, entered Israeli air space from the Red Sea in the south and fell in open terrain north of the city of Eilat. The IDF further noted, the “target was monitored by IAF troops throughout the incident. No injuries were reported and no damage was caused,” but that the incident is under review. So far the Houthis have launched over 50 attacks directed towards Israel. Most have been intercepted by Israel’s Arrow defence systems, others by US naval vessels and even by Saudi Arabia when they crossed their airspace.

March 19, 2024

March 19th – Day 165 of the war: News in Brief

1. IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari confirmed last night that the military operation in the Shifa hospital in Gaza City was ongoing, sharing more details. He reiterated the necessity of the raid as, “Hamas terrorists, including field commanders, fled to the area of the hospital, are hiding there and turned it into a command centre from which they dispatched and managed terrorist operations and managed combat. We have been tracking this compound for some time and waited for the most appropriate time to act.” He added details that “forces entered the compound, surprised terrorists barricaded themselves in several buildings in the hospital and opened fire from within the hospital towards our forces, from rooms within the building and from various parts of the compound, there were a number of encounters with terrorists in the area. Our forces returned fire, and exchanges of fire developed on site.” Hagari also noted during the fighting an IDF soldier, Matan Vinogradov, fell in combat. Hagari added, “We have arrested more than 200 terrorist suspects. We have killed more than 20 terrorists inside the hospital area, first among them the terrorist Faiq al-Mabhouh, who served as the director of the Special Operations Directorate in Hamas’s domestic security organisation.” The IDF is keen to highlight the importance of this tactical raid, as it prove the IDF’s capacity to return to operate in areas that Hamas sought to re-establish itself. The IDF is insistent that they will not allow Hamas to reconstitute its forces in the northern Gaza Strip and as ever vehemently objects to Hamas’ continued exploitation of hospitals which includes patients, medical personnel and the civilian population as human shields. Faiq al-Mabhouh, was the brother of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, the senior Hamas operative who was assassinated in Dubai in 2010.2. The Israeli negotiation team arrived in the Qatari capital yesterday, in an effort to secure the release of more hostages. Their mandate was approved by the War Cabinet and Security Cabinet, to provide for a 42-day ceasefire and a Palestinian security prisoner release in exchange for the release of 40 Israeli hostages. Mossad Director Barnea was personally in discussion with Qatari and Egyptian mediators overnight before returning to Israel this morning. From there, he will oversee work teams from the Mossad, the Shin Bet, the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, and Hostage Coordinator Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon’s team. Egyptian media is reporting that senior Egyptian intelligence officials persuaded Hamas not to halt the talks in response to the IDF operation in Shifa Hospital yesterday. On the release of Palestinian security prisoners, Hamas demands are not thought to be prohibitive, with a possible compromise found on the basis of the Gilad Shalit model, which granted Israel the right to veto the release of any individual “heavyweight” prisoners. The release of unrepentant murderers is deeply painful on the Israeli side, but it is also widely understood that no deal can be secured without such releases. Talks are likely to be protracted, with the Hamas delegation likely to defer to Gazan leader Sinwar, still in hiding deep inside the Gaza Strip, and with each relay of messages expected to take a day and a half. Another thorny issue is likely to be Hamas’s demand that Gazans be allowed to return to the north of the Strip, something Israel opposes.3. Amid widespread reports of their increasingly strained working relationship, President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on the phone for 45 minutes yesterday. According to the White House, Biden affirmed the need to defeat Hamas in Gaza while also protecting the civilian population and facilitating the safe and unhindered delivery of aid throughout Gaza, with special emphasis on the north. The two also agreed to convene work teams from both nations in Washington to produce “alternative approaches for an operation in Rafah.” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan later added that the White House would look to present a more pinpoint alternative to a full incursion into the city, Hamas’s last Gazan stronghold. “A major ground operation there would be a mistake. It would lead to more innocent civilian deaths, worsen the already dire humanitarian crisis, deepen the anarchy in Gaza and further isolate Israel internationally,” Sullivan said. Sullivan also confirmed the death in an Israeli strike last week of Hamas’s third in command in Gaza, Marwan Issa. Sullivan said, “the rest of the top leaders are in hiding, likely deep in the Hamas tunnel network and justice will come for them too. We are helping them to ensure that.” Meanwhile, on a visit to the Philippines, US Secretary of State Blinken again urged that more aid be sent to Gaza, claiming that the entire population was experiencing “severe levels of acute food insecurity.”4. Throughout Monday, Hezbollah rocket attacks have continued across Israel’s northern border from Lebanon. Several launches were identified crossing from Lebanon toward Yiftach, Har Dov, and Manara. As usual, the IDF returned fire to the sources of the attacks. Further, according to the IDF, “an aircraft identified terrorists entering a Hezbollah military compound in the area of Meiss El Jabal. A short while after the identification of the terrorists, IDF fighter jets struck the military compound. In addition, IDF fighter jets struck a Hezbollah military compound in the area of al-Adisa.” Hezbollah has fired over 2,600 rockets into northern Israel since the war begun.5. Sources in Syria claim that overnight Israel attacked military targets in the Damascus. This would be the second strike in the last two days and is thought to have targeted Hezbollah military assets. According to the Syrian military, their air defences intercepted “some of the missiles.” Ynet quotes a Saudi report from a security source saying, “continued arms smuggling from Syria will increase Israeli strikes on the military stores and the continued Syrian support of Hezbollah and Iran, will prevent it from achieving stability and the Syrian people will pay the price.” Two days ago there were reports of an attack attributed to Israel on Hezbollah’s ammunition depots in the Yabrod area, north of Damascus.6. Israeli Ambassador to the UK Tzipi Hotovely, alongside British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters, yesterday announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the two countries. “As two of the world’s leading countries in the fields of science, research, innovation and technology,” she said, “this agreement strengthens our cooperation in: Sustainability and protecting the environment; health and medicine; Artificial Intelligence; space exploration and education. The UK and Israel are working together to enhance our scientific collaboration.” Meanwhile, UK Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden yesterday affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas, but called for an “immediate ceasefire to allow… aid in, and crucially, the hostages to come out.” UK Foreign Secretary Cameron met with hostage families yesterday and said “their ordeals are unimaginable. Hamas could end this conflict today. They must release all hostages immediately.”

March 18, 2024

IDF operating against Hamas in Shifa Hospital

What’s happening: The IDF is currently conducting a targeted operation against Hamas in the area of the Shifa hospital in Gaza City.

The operation began early this morning, just a few hours before the Israeli delegation to Qatar was scheduled to depart to renew negotiations for the release of the hostages.
As troops surrounded the hospital, they were shot at and engaged in exchange of fire. Whilst the IDF has called on civilians to evacuate, more than 80 suspects have been detained so far. Several terrorists have been killed in firefights.
IDF Spokesperson Hagari confirmed that “troops operating in the area were trained for the mission and were briefed in advance about the importance of refraining from harming civilians, patients, medical teams and medical equipment,”
The IDF also released a recording of a phone conversation between IDF Col. Moshe Tetro, head of the Coordination and Liaison Administration, and Dr. Youssef Abu Rish, the Director General of the Health Ministry in the Gaza Strip.
- Col. Tetro said, “We see that the Hamas terrorist organisation has continued its military operations from inside hospitals. We are prepared to provide any humanitarian assistance needed. Our request is simple: the immediate halt to all terrorist activity in hospitals, as we saw in the hospital in Khan Yunis.”
- Dr. Abu Rish replied, “We received your message and I assure you that we are on the same page. Hospitals need to be a place for providing service and no one must harm the patients or the provision of medical treatment in these hospitals.”
Hagari added, “even in the course of the operation, the IDF has guaranteed the hospital’s ongoing operation, and it brought Arabic-speakers to the scene so that they might engage in dialogue with patients in the hospital. IDF doctors are prepared to help anyone who needs that. The patients and the medical teams need not leave the hospital, but there is passage for the departure of civilians from the area.”
His office added, “the IDF will continue to operate in compliance with international law and against the Hamas terrorist organisation, which is operating out of hospitals and civilian infrastructure in a systematic and cynical pattern of behaviour, without making any distinction between the civilian population and the organisation’s terrorists.”

Context: This operation was planned several days ago after intelligence showed Hamas operatives, including senior terrorists, had regrouped inside the hospital and were using it as a base to launch attacks.

In addition, the IDF continues to face multi-theatre operations:
- Across other areas of the Gaza Strip.
- In Lebanon, where IDF planes bombed Hezbollah targets following continues fire on Israel’s northern border over the weekend.
- Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for launching drones towards the Golan Heights.
- Overnight there was also a suspected infiltration by Yemeni drone. According to the IDF “a suspicious aerial target crossed into Israeli territory from the Red Sea and fell into an open area north of the city of Eilat. The target was monitored by IAF forces. No damage was caused and no injuries were reported.”

In parallel, both the War Cabinet and the wider Security Cabinet met last night to formulate the scope for the Israeli hostage negotiators led by Mossad Director David Barnea.
Whilst no details have been released, the speculated positions include:
- Israel is not expected to accept Hamas’s demand that the IDF withdraw from the corridor south of Gaza City, which prevents Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip.
- Israel also objects to Hamas’s demand that the second phase of the deal include a permanent ceasefire.
- The key negotiations will be over the ratio of released hostages in exchange for Palestinian security prisoners, and how may and which “heavyweight” (mass murderer) terrorists will be released. Speculation suggests 40 civilian hostages for 950 prisoners.
- However, Hamas are thought to be demanding 50 prisoners in exchange for every female soldier being held hostage, including 30 “heavyweight” prisoners
The negotiations could be carried out in a similar fashion to the Shalit talks, with Israeli and Hamas delegations in sperate quarters in the same hotel, with the Egyptian an Qatari envoys shuttling in-between.
Also in parallel, aid continues to enter Gaza: 61 UN trucks, including 19 into northern Gaza.
Also, a ship carrying 200 tons of aid from the World Central Kitchen organisation arrived on Friday. 12 WCK trucks distributed the aid to the northern Gaza Strip.
Also, the weekend saw the first time a Fatah statement criticised Hamas asking, “did Hamas consult the Palestinian leadership or any Palestinian national party when it made its decision to carry out the ‘adventure’ of last October 7, which led to a catastrophe more horrific than the Nakba of 1948?… [Hamas] have no right to dictate national priorities.”

Looking ahead: Israel faces growing calls from the international community to end the fighting. In response Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Cabinet yesterday, “In the international community, there are those who are trying to stop the war now, before all of its goals have been achieved… Let it be clear: If we stop the war now, before all of its goals are achieved, this means that Israel will have lost the war, and this we will not allow. Therefore, we cannot, and will not, succumb to this pressure.”

He also reiterated the need to operate in Rafah. Netanyahu said, “we have approved the operational plans for action in Rafah, including advancing the steps to evacuate the civilian population from the combat zones. This is an essential stage ahead of the military action… We will operate in Rafah. This will take several weeks, and it will happen.”

March 14, 2024

March 14th – Day 160 of the war: News in Brief

1. The first week of Ramadan is so far proceeding relatively calmly. An estimated 40,000 people prayed peacefully in Jerusalem last night, with the flashpoint Temple Mount seeing no significant unrest so far. On Tuesday, the IDF’s military liaison to the Palestinians confirmed that only men over 55, women over 50, and children under 10 from the West Bank would be allowed to visit Al-Aqsa Mosque for the first Friday prayers of Ramadan tomorrow. Thousands of police officers will deploy to the Old City. With Hamas looking to incite violence during the holy month, two soldiers were stabbed in an attack at a checkpoint south of Jerusalem yesterday morning. Israeli security forces shot the attacker and the two troops were moderately wounded. Police Commissioner Yaakov Shabtai said, “The closer we get to the [first] Friday of Ramadan, everyone is trying to stir things up in this area; we are currently on our highest alert.”

2. COGAT confirmed that aid for Gaza is arriving by land, air, and now by sea. IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said yesterday that Israel was trying “to flood” Gaza with Humanitarian Aid. “We are learning and improving and doing different changes so as not to create a routine but to create a diversity of ways that we can enter,” he said. In a statement yesterday, the IDF confirmed it was cooperating with the first ship carrying aid by sea, operated by the World Central Kitchen and funded by the UAE. Israel also cooperated with the World Food Organisation sending six aid trucks into the northern Strip yesterday. Israeli media reported the trucks were looted by locals and did not reach their destination. About 100 US troops departed a Virginia base on Tuesday, carrying equipment needed to build the temporary pier for the distribution of aid in Gaza. When operational in between 5-7 weeks, the pier will bring in up to two million meals a day. US Secretary of State Blinken said “I want to emphasise it is a complement to, not a substitute for, other ways of getting humanitarian assistance into Gaza, and in particular overland routes remain the most critical way to get assistance in and then to people who need it, but this will help close the gap.”

3. The UK announced yesterday that it had made a “major humanitarian push” in Gaza, sending around 150 tonnes of aid, including 840 family tents, 13,440 blankets, almost 3,000 shelter kits, and shelter-fixing kits, 6,000 sleeping mats and more than 3,000 dignity kits to support women and girls. A UK field hospital will also arrive this week, to be staffed by both local health workers and international medics, while Foreign Secretary Cameron announced a further £10 million in aid funding, bringing UK support to more than £100 million this financial year. Cameron said “too many people in Gaza are suffering. No one should be without basic amenities like shelter and bedding, and everyone deserves the dignity that basic hygiene kits provide. Our largest aid delivery, combined with a new UK funded field hospital, will save lives.” The UK also joined the US and other allied states in issuing a statement on opening a maritime aid corridor yesterday.

4. The IDF continues to operate across the length of Gaza Strip. According to the IDF, in the Hamad neighbourhood in western Khan Yunis, the IDF killed, “approximately one hundred terrorists….The operations also involved more than one hundred aerial strikes carried out in close proximity to the ground forces.” Ahead of any potential ground incursion into Rafah, the IDF carried out a precise targeted strike, killing Muhammad Abu Hasna, the head of Hamas’ Operations Unit in the Rafah area. According to the IDF spokesperson’s office, “Hasna was a combat support operative in Hamas’ military wing. He was also involved in taking control of Humanitarian Aid and distributing it to Hamas terrorists. Furthermore, Hasna coordinated the activities of various Hamas units, as well as communicated with and activated Hamas field operatives. Hasna was also responsible for an intelligence operations room which provides information on IDF positions for use in Hamas attacks.” Also yesterday, a mortar was fired from central Gaza toward Kibbutz Nahal Oz, however it fell inside the Gaza Strip. According to the IDF, “Within a few minutes, the terrorists responsible for the attempted launch were struck and eliminated by IDF aircraft.”

5. Israel media is reporting growing tensions in the War Cabinet over the future administration of the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly rejected a plan presented by the security establishment, backed by Defence Minister Gallant and with US support, for training several thousand Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip to serve as a security force in the central and northern Strip and to be tasked with distributing Humanitarian Aid, among other things. The plan would see between 4000 and 7000 Palestinian troops chosen by Palestinian Authority’s Head of Intelligence Maj. Gen. Majed Faraj, then being vetted by Israel, before being trained, armed and deployed to Gaza. Netanyahu rejected the idea as it would empower the PA – something which, despite significant US encouragement, he is reluctant to do. Gallant is quoted as saying “The problem with the humanitarian [aid] isn’t getting the goods in, but who distributes it. Someone has got to take control and he isn’t going to be a Swede. He’s got to be Fatah.”

6. Northern Israel continues to be attacked from Lebanon. This morning, an anti-tank guided missile was fired at the IDF base in Zarit, as well as rocket fire directed to Kfar Blum. No injuries have been reported. Over the last couple of days, Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets into northern Israel. In response the Israeli Air Force has struck Hezbollah targets, including military compounds in the areas of Qantara, Yater and Aalma El Chaeb. In addition, the IDF announced, “an aircraft in the area of Tyre struck Hadi Ali Mustafa, a significant operative in Hamas’ department responsible for its international terrorist activities. In his position, Hadi directed terrorist cells and activities in the field, and advanced terror attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets in various countries around the world. Hadi operated under the direction of Samir Fendi, one of Saleh al-Arouri’s associates who was killed together with him” in a strike in January. Earlier in the week, the IDF revealed that over the last five months they have struck approximately 4,500 Hezbollah targets, killing over 300 Hezbollah fighters.

7. After two days of often angry debate, the Knesset passed an amended wartime budget yesterday, by 62 votes to 55. The government spending limit for 2024 has been increased to NIS 584.1 billion (£125 billion), more than NIS 70 billion (£15 billion) higher than the original budget. The budget sees significantly expanded military expenditure, as well as other wartime civilian considerations. Netanyahu said it “guarantees the continuation of the war until complete victory and benefits the citizens of Israel and the state’s economy.” Critics argue the budget does not go far enough scaling back on interests linked to coalition factions, including controversial allocations for the ultra-Orthodox. Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said it was the most “sectoral, detached and profligate budget in the history of the State of Israel” and that it would be “the last budget this government will pass.”

8. Following Gideon Saar’s announcement earlier this week that his New Hope faction was leaving the National Unity Party, Channels 12 and 13 report fresh polling. Both polls show Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party (now operating alone after Saar’s split) as the largest Knesset Faction. Channel 13 shows Blue and White 34 seats (Channel 12 33); Likud 17 (18); Yesh Atid 14 (13); Shas 9 (11); Jewish Power 9 (8); Yisrael Beiteinu 8 (11); United Torah Judaism 7 (7); New Hope 6 (5); United Arab List 4 (4); Religious Zionist Party 4 (0); Meretz 4 (4); Hadash-Ta’al 4 (5). Both polls therefore predict workable majorities for the Anti-Netanyahu bloc. Channel 13 conducts a separate poll asking voters if their votes would be different were Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen to form two new parties. A prospective Bennett party shows a strong 18 seats and Cohen 11 – their support coming from voters otherwise attracted to Blue and White, the Likud, and Yesh Atid. Channel 12 shows less support for Bennett (12 seats).

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