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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated April 16, 2024

Israel considers response to Iranian attack

What’s happened: The Israeli war cabinet met yesterday to discuss Israel’s response to Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday night. (For details and initial analysis of the attack see BICOM’s briefing.)

  • Kan Radio summarises Prime Minister Netanyahu as saying at the meeting that Israel must respond, but must do so judiciously.
  • Visiting the IAF Nevatim base targeted by Iran, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said “Iran wanted to damage the State of Israel’s strategic capabilities. This is something that has never happened before. When we look ahead, we are weighing our steps and this strike, with so many cruise missiles and UAVs on Israeli territory, will be met with a response.”
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari said that “the range of options that the State of Israel has at its disposal is broader and bigger” than that available to Iran.
  • Israel’s western allies, including the UK, France, and Germany, continue to follow the Biden administration in urging Israel to respond cautiously. Speaking in the House of Commons yesterday, Prime Minister Sunak condemned an Iranian attack which “sought to plunge the Middle East into a new crisis… The scale of the attack,” he said, “and the fact that it was targeted directly at Israel are all without precedent.”
  • Sunak also urged Israel to show “restraint” in its response, a point echoed by Foreign Secretary Cameron, who told LBC that the UK was “saying Israel has a right to respond but we do not support a retaliatory strike. There are times where we have to be smart as well as tough, where we have to use head as well as heart.”
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant spoke again with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin yesterday. Austin “reiterated steadfast US support for Israel’s defence and reaffirmed the strategic goal of regional stability.” In calls to other European and Middle Eastern counterparts, Austin said that “while the United States does not seek escalation, we will continue to defend Israel and US personnel.”
  • The Chinese foreign minister and his Iranian counterpart also spoke, with official Chinese media reporting that Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told Wang Yi that Iran would “handle the situation well and spare the region further turmoil”.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Katz, meanwhile, has announced that he has written to 32 countries urging them to impose sanctions on Iran’s missile program and to declare the IRGC a terrorist organisation. Katz said on X (formerly Twitter) that he was “leading a political attack against Iran,” designed to “contain and weaken” it. Iran “must be stopped now — before it is too late.”

Context: Israel’s western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.

  • In weighing its response, therefore, Israel is forced to balance the need to maintain deterrence following an unprecedented Iranian attack consisting of over 300 missiles and UAVs, and protecting the emerging anti-Iranian Israeli-western-Arab alliance which was illustrated during the attack.
  • Israeli commentators are warning that a strong Israeli response could imperil this alliance, which was demonstrated for the first time on Saturday night and included Israel, the US, UK, France, and “moderate” Arab states including Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
  • Reports this morning claim that Israel has assured Arab allies, including Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf states, that its response would not implicate them. This follows Iranian threats that regional allies of Israel would pay a price for cooperation with an Israeli response.
  • Iran’s official media specifically mentioned that Jordan would be the next target in the event that it aided or joined Israel in responding to the Iranian attack.
  • Reports out of the US this morning also claim that Israel will likely focus its response not on Iran directly, but on its proxies – potentially Hezbollah and/or -based militias. Such a response would be calculated to provoke a less severe counter-response from Iran than a direct attack on Iranian soil would.
  • While Jordan took direct action in striking Iranian drones and missiles travelling over its airspace on Saturday night, Israeli reports claim that Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were all also in “close contact” with Israel during the attack.
  • Two days before the attack on Israel, Iranian officials briefed their counterparts in the Gulf countries on the structure and timing of the plan for the attack, to enable them to secure the airspace. Following US pressure, Saudi Arabia and Egypt subsequently shared intelligence about those plans.
  • According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to share information with the US and opened their airspace to fighter jets, shared radar surveillance information, and, in some cases, provided their own forces to help and intercept the attack.
  • However, pushing back on reports that Saudi Arabia had aided Israel, informed sources told Al Arabiya that Saudi Arabia did not participate in the interception of Iranian drones and missiles.
  • While Israel has enjoyed normalised relations with Egypt and Jordan for decades, this emerging alliance represents the bearing of fruit of the Abraham Accords process (which saw Israel normalise relations with Bahrain, Morocco, the UAE) and the progress made towards a similar agreement with Saudi Arabia.
  • All these regional states recognise that the threat from Iran is shared with Israel by them all.
  • Before the October attacks by Hamas, normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia was thought to be progressing. In late September 2023, Netanyahu and Biden discussed the issue when they met on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York. In an extensive English language interview to Fox News, released shortly after the Netanyahu-Biden meeting, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) confirmed that “every day we get closer” to a normalisation deal.
  • The 2020 Abraham Accords, as well as seeing Israel being moved from the European theatre to the US Central Command (CENTOM) in 2021, facilitated the ability of Israel and Arab states’ militaries to share intelligence and to cooperate with one another.
  • Summarising the new alliance, Ariel Kahana writes in Israel Hayom today that “a new bloc has broken out of its shell, has spread its wings and built its muscles: Israel, the West and Arab countries, together against Iran.”

Looking ahead: Israel has reportedly agreed with the US that any response will be coordinated with Washington. This follows disquiet from US officials over the fact that it was not notified in advance prior to the assassination of IRGC commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus two weeks ago.

April 12, 2024

Israel and allies brace for Iranian attack

What’s happened: Israel and its western allies continue to brace for an anticipated Iranian attack on Israel in response to the assassination of senior IRGC commander Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus last week.

  • The IDF and Mossad have approved plans for an attack on Iran in the event that Iran attacks Israel, with the IDF confirming it is “on alert and highly prepared for various scenarios”, as The Wall Street Journal quotes US officials warning that an attack, “possibly on Israeli soil”, could happen as soon as in the next 24-48 hours.
  • “We are ready for attack and defence using a variety of capabilities that the IDF has, and also ready with our strategic partners,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said yesterday.
  • Visiting an IAF base yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel has “set a simple principle: anyone who hits us, we will hit them. we are prepared to meet the State of Israel’s security needs in both defence and offence.”
  • Iran’s IRGC is said to have presented a number of attack options to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while unverified tweets from IRGC-associated X accounts have posted videos simulating strikes on the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev and on Haifa airport.
  • US CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla arrived in Israel yesterday. He will meet today with Israeli counterparts to discuss Israeli-US coordination in preparation for an Iranian attack.
  • Meanwhile, four of Israel’s principle western allies – the US, UK, France, and Germany – have warned Iran against launching an attack on Israeli territory. UK Foreign Secretary Cameron spoke with his Iranian counterpart, as did the German foreign minister.
  • “Today I made clear to Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian,” Cameron wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “that Iran must not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict. I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence. Iran should instead work to de-escalate and prevent further attacks.”
  • US Secretary of State Blinken, meanwhile, has spoken with Chinese, Turkish, Saudi and European counterparts, “to make clear that escalation is not in anyone’s interest and that countries should urge Iran not to escalate.”
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant spoke with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin last night – their second conversation in less than a week. Austin reiterated President Biden’s message in public comments made earlier this week – of  “ironclad US support for Israel’s defence in the face of growing threats from Iran and its regional proxies.”
  • Gallant’s office said he “emphasised that Israel will not accept an Iranian attack on Israeli territory… Gallant told Secretary Austin that he is committed to the security of the citizens of Israel, and therefore a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory will require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran.”
  • Israel’s diplomatic missions overseas remain on the highest state of alert, with some of them closed and their staff instructed to work from home. The US, meanwhile, has instructed staff at its Israeli embassy not to travel beyond the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Beersheba areas.
  • Israel’s Home Front Command, responsible for civilian defence, has made no changes to their instructions and guidelines. Despite this, many Israelis are stocking up on dry goods, bottled water, and even generators in some cases. As schoolchildren break up ahead of the Passover holiday, there have been numerous accounts of pupils being told to take their books home with them in case they need to move to remote learning after the holiday as a result of an Iranian escalation.

Context: The unified approach of Israel’s allies, and their reaffirmed commitment to Israel’s security in the face of the Iranian threat, indicates that recent disagreements over the conduct of Israel’s war in Gaza have not altered the calculus when it comes to Iran.

  • Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin all recognise that the Iranian threat is against western interests and values as well as Israel. As well as the deepening immediate strategic cooperation, Kurill’s visit is intended as a clear warning to Tehran that the US and Israel are in close coordination.
  • The western interest is also in preventing an Iranian response and the subsequent Israeli reaction from spiralling to an all-out regional war.
  • Iran is thought to have delivered a message to the US, conveyed by its Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian during a visit to Oman last weekend, that its response will seek to avoid dramatic escalation of this kind.
  • However, seasoned Israeli commentators are warning that the current crisis is likely to see the end of a nearly four-decade status quo, in which Israeli-Iranian hostilities are played out not in the direct exchange of fire but through Iran’s regional proxies.
  • This would represent a seismic paradigm shift in long-term Israel policy and in strategic thinking post-October 7th. Since hostilities with Hezbollah intensified, the Israeli approach has been to degrade the Iranian proxy’s aerial capability and its elite Radwan Force, generally in the border area, but to keep the conflict contained and short of all-out war. Similarly, Israel has not struck decisively at the Yemeni Houthis, despite the group (another Iranian proxy) having launched repeated attacks directed at Israeli soil and airspace.
  • On the specifics of an anticipated Iranian attack, Tehran has a range of options, though the likeliest scenario would see a multi-front attack using UAVs and cruise missiles, launched either from Iranian soil or via proxies in Yemen, Iraq, , and Lebanon.
  • Israeli reports indicate that Austin also complained to Gallant that the US was not given advanced warning of the attack which killed Zahedi. Israel has not official confirmed responsibility for the attack, though the IDF spokesperson did say that the building hit was not an embassy but “a military building of Quds forces disguised as a civilian building.”
  • A report on Israel’s Channel 12, meanwhile, has alleged that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar is delaying his formal response to the latest US-brokered hostage proposal in the hope of an Iranian attack on Israel.
  • Along with preparation for a direct Iranian threat, the northern border remains a likely site of escalation. New data from the Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot has revealed the scale of Hezbollah aggression post-October 7th. It has fired a total of 3,100 rockets and mortar shells at northern Israel since that day. By comparison, a total of 4,400 were fired during the entire Second Lebanon War. Some 240 “heavy bombs” have been fired, along with at least 700 anti-tank missiles, and at least 33 explosive UAVs, 55 sniper attempts, and seven attempts at infiltrating Israeli territory.
  • In response, Israel has conducted 1,400 air strikes and 3,300 ground attacks, destroying hundreds of weapons stores and military installations. In terms of casualties, says Yediot Ahronot, 14 IDF soldiers and eight Israeli civilians have been killed. 280 Hezbollah fighters have been killed, along with 70 non-Hezbollah Palestinian fighters.

April 11, 2024

Israel and Indonesia to normalise relations?

Israel and Indonesia to normalise relations? 

What’s happened: According to reports, Israel is set to normalise relations with Indonesia.

  • The move is set to be part of Indonesia’s bid to join the intergovernmental Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with negotiations having taken place over the last three months.
  • According to revelations from Yediot Ahronot, OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann wrote to Indonesia two weeks ago indicating that its membership was contingent on it establishing diplomatic relations with all member states, including Israel, and that membership would need to be ratified by all member states, including Israel.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Katz has handled negotiations on the Israeli side, with the move to a successful conclusion indicating that the process has recovered from Jakarta’s public criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza and its support for South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Indonesia also filed its own case against Israel at the ICJ in January.

Context: Indonesia is the world’s largest Muslim state, by population, and a normalisation of relations with Israel would prove a significant breakthrough in the US vision of a Middle East and wider Muslim world at peace with the Jewish State.

  • It is thought that normalisation was close to fruition in the autumn of last year, before October 7th shifted the dynamic.
  • October 7th and the war in Gaza also interrupted progress towards normalisation with Saudi Arabia – just as they were intended to do by Iran and Hamas. Securing this normalisation with the leader of the Arab world was a key plank in the Biden Administration’s foreign policy agenda.
  • The Indonesian normalisation process was begun during the tenure of outgoing Indonesian President Joko Widodo, and is supported by President-Elect Prabowo Subianto, known to be a long-time advocate of normalisation.
  • A Memorandum of Understanding was apparently agreed in September 2023, indicating the two nations’ wish to advance and expand the process of the Abraham Accords, which saw the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalise relations with Israel.
  • Even prior to these breakthroughs, Israeli-Indonesian trade had long taken place quietly but regularly, mostly in the field of agri-tech and to the value of about $500 million per year.
  • A signal of the thaw in relations and the move to normalisation was provided on Tuesday, when Israel cooperated with an Indonesian aid airdrop into Gaza. Israel had previously refused to allow Turkey and Qatar – other states without normalised relations – to do so.

Developments in Gaza: The IDF yesterday killed three sons of Hamas Political Bureau Director Ismail Haniyeh in an airstrike in the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza. Four of the men’s children, three girls and a boy, were also killed in the attack.

  • The IDF said Amir, Muhammad, Hazem Haniyeh were “on their way to carry out a terror attack in the central Gaza Strip,” and were targeted in a real time operation (ie not as part of a pre-planned operation) and without the knowledge of either the prime or defence minister.
  • The IDF were explicit that the three had been targeted due to an imminent threat, and not due to their family connections. Amir was known to be a squad commander in Hamas’s military wing, while the army also said that at least one of the three had been involved in holding Israeli hostages kidnapped on October 7th.
  • Ismail Haniyeh responded publicly to the news. As well as “thank[ing] God for bestowing upon us the honour of their martyrdom,” he said that regardless of “the size of the sacrifice, Hamas won’t surrender,” and that anyone who thought such actions would pressure Hamas into accepting a hostage deal was “deceiving himself”.
  • The killing of Haniyeh’s sons came in the midst of US-brokered hostage release negotiations between Israel and Hamas, and as Israel awaits a formal Hamas response to the latest proposal. Preliminary public responses from Hamas officials indicate that the proposal will be rejected.
  • Due to the nature of real-time operations, they can be approved at the operational level, without consultation with either top military brass or the political echelon. The strike on the Haniyehs is thought to have been approved by an IDF colonel.
  • The presence of the three men in one of the northern-most corners of Gaza is a clear indication that despite IDF achievements in the north, the Hamas presence remains.
  • Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi expressed his “deep sorrow” to Haniyeh.

The Iranian threat: The US and Israel have intensified joint preparations for an anticipated Iranian response to the killing in Damascus last week of IRGC commander Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

  • Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said yesterday that “Israel must be punished, and they will pay for their mistakes.”
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant, on a visit to an Iron Dome unit, said “Whoever tries to attack us will be faced with strong defence and right after with strong response in his territory.”
  • The US and Israel are bracing for an Iranian response, either on “soft targets” like overseas embassies, or a direct attack on Israel using ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles.
  • Gallant’s comments are being interpreted as a sign that in response to any Iranian strike, Israel is likely to look to strike Iranian territory directly. The Israeli Air Force this week held an exercise in Cyprus, alongside Cypriot counterparts, simulating an attack on a long-range target.
  • The fear of serious regional escalation is acute, with tensions between Israel and Iran’s Hezbollah proxy on Israel’s northern border also at a high-point. Reports indicate that the US has prevailed on its regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iraq to convey messages to Iran urging it not to escalate.
  • In remarks made at a press conference in Washington yesterday alongside Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, President Biden said the US “commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again, ironclad. We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”
  • Confused reports emerged last night, as the Iranian Mehr news agency, which has ties to the regime, announced that all air traffic over Tehran was suspended due to “military drills”. The agency then quickly removed its post on X (formerly Twitter) and denied ever having posted it.

Looking ahead: Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), is set to arrive in Israel today to coordinate responses to any Iranian attack.

  • Hamas’s formal response to the latest hostage proposal remains outstanding.

April 10, 2024

Foreign Secretary Cameron: “Israel remains a vital defence partner”.

What’s happened: Foreign Secretary Cameron yesterday confirmed that the UK would not suspend arms sales to Israel.

  • Speaking at a joint press conference with US counterpart Anthony Blinken, Cameron reinforced that “Israel remains a vital defence and security partner to the UK. Our cooperation makes the more secure from external threats.”
  • “The latest assessment,” he said, referring to advice from government lawyers as to the international legality of continuing to supply weapons, “leaves our position on export licences unchanged. This is consistent with the advice that I and other ministers have received, and as ever we will keep the position under review.”
  • Cameron also said that “we continue to have grave concerns around the humanitarian access issue in Gaza… We’ve seen a welcome increase in trucks… the highest since Oct 7, and of course public commitments from Israel to flood Gaza with aid. These now need to be turned into reality.”
  • Cameron discussed both issues with Foreign Minister Katz yesterday, conveying to his Israeli counterpart the UK’s wish to see expanding the operating hours of the Kerem Shalom crossing, increasing the number of aid trucks entering Gaza daily to 500, providing protective equipment for humanitarian workers, opening the Erez crossing, establishing a humanitarian corridor from Jordan that can transport 100 trucks a day, and a de-escalation mechanism to ensure the safety of workers.
  • Cameron also reiterated the UK’s request that the Red Cross or British diplomats be allowed to visit detained Hamas Nukhba terrorist suspects and that Israel explain its strategy for distinguishing civilians from terrorists.
  • A UK Foreign Office paper published this week, meanwhile, called for “an immediate pause to get aid in and hostages out of Gaza, then progress towards a sustainable, permanent ceasefire, without a return to destruction, fighting and loss of life.”
  • At the UN General Assembly on Monday, the UK’s Ambassador to the UN Barbara Woodward reiterated that the UK has trebled its financial commitment to Palestinian aid this financial year, and welcoming the Israeli decision to open the Erez Crossing and the Port of Ashdod to ease the flow of aid.
  • Woodward also affirmed the UK’s view on the “need to focus on the vital elements for a lasting peace. These include the release of all hostages; the formation of a new Palestinian Government for the West Bank and Gaza accompanied by an international support package; removing Hamas’s capacity to launch attacks against Israel; Hamas no longer being in charge of Gaza; and a political horizon which provides a credible and irreversible pathway towards a two-state solution.”

Context: Following threats from Cameron and from some political quarters in the US to suspend military sales or to make them conditional, Israel’s position remains that such threats send a dangerous signal to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, as to the willingness of Israel’s allies to support the country at a time of multi-front existential war.

  • The escalating concerns of Israel’s western allies over the conduct of the war in Gaza, particularly over the question of and rising precipitously following the deaths of the World Central Kitchen workers, has brought the question into sharp focus in recent weeks.
  • In an article in the most recent edition of the Sunday Times, Cameron reaffirmed Israel’s right to self-defence. “Israel cannot be expected,” he wrote, “to live next to an organisation that carried out such brutal attacks and has declared that, if possible, it would do the same all over again.”
  • Alongside his calls for further aid, Cameron demanded “the immediate release of all hostages. That innocent people have been captured and held is a perpetual reminder of the monstrous organisation we are dealing with.”
  • Cameron’s Labour opposition counterpart David Lammy criticised the foreign secretary’s decision not to publish the government’s legal advice in full, accusing him of “hiding from scrutiny”.
  • In December 2023, less than three months into the war in Gaza, Cameron announced that he was “satisfied that there was good evidence to support a judgment that Israel is committed to comply[ing] with International Humanitarian Law” and decided to recommend not to suspend or revoke weapons export licences but to keep them under careful review.
  • He then first mooted suspending arms sales to Israel on March 21st, connecting the issue, rather surprisingly, with Red Cross access to Nukhba suspects.
  • His comments were attacked by his former colleague and fellow previous UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
  • UK arms imports represent a very small fraction of Israel’s total imported arms – less than 1 percent – and an even smaller proportion of Israel’s overall weapons arsenal.
  • Although the UK’s export licensing system makes overall figures difficult to quantify, data from the Campaign Against Arms Trade suggests that the UK exports nearly 25 times the value of arms to Saudi Arabia as it does to Israel.
  • In parallel, Israel is the UK’s third largest supplier of arms, and imported Israeli arms have protected UK service personnel in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and in other combat deployments.
  • The opening of the Erez Crossing and the Port of Ashdod have led to significant increases in the amount of aid entering the Gaza Strip.
  • According to COGAT, 468 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday, the highest total since the beginning of the war. This follows 419 on Monday and 322 on Sunday.

Looking ahead: Israel continues to await a Hamas response to the latest US proposal on a hostage release deal.

  • Any temporary ceasefire should be able to facilitate further increases in aid delivered to Gaza.

April 10, 2024

Waiting for Hamas: hostage deal in the balance

What’s happened: Mixed reports are emerging from Cairo about the prospects of an agreement on a hostage release/prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas.

  • An unnamed Israeli official told Channel 13 News yesterday that “we’ve held very significant talks in the past few hours. The United States has taken meaningful leadership and is applying heavy pressure on the mediators. The American proposal is far-reaching; it includes a very broad mandate. No one can say that the Israeli rope is short. All of the elements are in it—moving IDF troops and a return of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip.”
  • Yesterday, Defence Minister Gallant said, “We are ready to make difficult decisions in order to get the hostages back. I think that we are at a good point for a deal.”
  • Hamas officials, meanwhile, told international media that current proposals still fell well short of their minimum demands. Senior Hamas official Ali Baraka said: “We reject the latest Israeli proposals that the Egyptian side informed us of. The politburo met today and decided this.”
  • Another senior official, Mahmoud Mardawi, said the proposal “doesn’t address in any way our demands: a full withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, a ceasefire, an unconditional return of the displaced to the northern Gaza Strip and help in the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction.”
  • On a visit to Germany – a key Israeli ally – Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana offered hope for a deal but cautioned that “pitted against us is a cynical and cruel enemy that has already resorted in the past to lies and emotional manipulations. These moments of the negotiations are tense moments in which we need to have nerves of steel; [we need to] test the seriousness of [Hamas’s] intentions and to embrace and to strengthen the families.”
  • Visiting Washington, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid pledged his support for any hostage deal.
  • Yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu came under pressure from far-right elements in his coalition. Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir both complained that the wider security cabinet was being sidelined and crucial decisions on the flexibility given to Israeli negotiators and other aspects of the war taken only by the narrower war cabinet.
  • Smotrich first made his criticisms public in a letter made available to the media, before later meeting privately with Netanyahu. His demand that a security cabinet meeting be held was agreed to, with a meeting set for this evening.
  • Both Smotrich and Ben Gvir oppose any hostage proposals which limit Israeli freedom of operation in the Gaza Strip. Ben Gvir said yesterday that Netanyahu would have no mandate to continue as prime minister unless an operation in Rafah – home to Hamas’s remaining four battalions and thought to contain both its senior leadership and many of the surviving hostages – was authorised.
  • Smotrich, meanwhile, wrote: “For several weeks now, I have been warning that instead of taking our foot of the gas, we need to increase pressure on Hamas in Gaza and that this is the only way we will be able to get back the hostages and destroy Hamas.”
  • In response, Netanyahu said publicly that “we are constantly acting to achieve our objectives, first among them the release of all our hostages, and the attainment of total victory over Hamas. That victory mandates an entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there. That is going to happen; there is a date.”

Context: Israel’s military withdrawal yesterday can be interpreted as a tangible display of its flexibility and openness to a hostage deal. However, it has made clear that it retains the freedom to operate in Gaza if required, including a future operation in Rafah.

  • An important, and tragic, complicating element of a potential deal is Hamas’s ability to furnish Israel with 40 names of hostages meeting the criteria for the first phase of a release.
  • Under proposals, women, female soldiers, men over the age of 50, and men under the age of 50 with serious medical conditions are set to be freed. Reports suggest that Hamas has claimed it does not have 40 hostages still alive who meet these criteria.
  • Israel is thought to have responded that 40 remains the number to be released, and that if that is indeed the case, a single digit number of living hostages not meeting these criteria should be included. For each of these hostages, Israel would agree to a higher number of Palestinian prisoners being released from Israeli jails.
  • Israel is thought to be prepared to show significant flexibility on the return of northern Gazans to their former places of residence. Such a return would likely be phased and subject to demographic restrictions to ensure that Hamas and other terror organisations do not return.
  • Hamas’s previous model of collective decision-making amongst its most senior leadership is thought no longer to apply. Instead, the final decision on agreeing to or rejecting proposals is thought to rest solely with its Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar. Delays in reaching and then getting responses from Sinwar will likely mean Hamas’s response comes in the next days.
  • To Smotrich and Ben Gvir’s claims that the security cabinet is being sidelined, last November’s release of over 40 hostages was indeed first agreed by the war cabinet before then being put to the security cabinet.
  • Hamas’s demand that 900 Palestinian prisoners be released, including at least 100 serving life sentences for murder, is hugely contentious in Israel. Frequent reference is made to the 2011 exchange of over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for Gilad Shalit. Multiple released prisoners went on to take part in October 7th or other terrorist acts against Israel, chief among them the mastermind of the massacres, Sinwar.
  • The Israeli calculation remains that an operation in Rafah remains necessary for the full defeat of Hamas and is also the best way to exert pressure on Hamas to agree to hostage releases. The Israel withdrawal from Khan Yunis presents an opportunity for Gazan civilians to leave the Rafah area.
  • The withdrawal of forces from Gaza also allows the military to afford troops an opportunity for time away from the front and for maintenance work to be done on military equipment.
  • US National Security Spokesperson John Kirby said yesterday that “we do not support a major ground operation in Rafah and we have no indication that it will happen soon. The Israelis indicated to us that there would be no action in Rafah before we hold a meeting on the issue. We informed the Israelis that we are interested in the daily entry of 300-350 trucks into the Strip.”
  • COGAT has announced that 419 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday – the highest number of trucks to enter in a single day since the start of the war. The previous record high came the day before, with 322 entering.

Looking ahead: Negotiators now await a formal Hamas response to the latest proposals.

  • Following the pressure from right-wing coalition members, the security cabinet is due to meet this evening. It would likely be reconvened to approve a war cabinet decision if there is a breakthrough in hostage negotiations.
  • If these negotiations fail to produce a deal, Israel’s political echelon remains primed to authorise an operation in Rafah

April 8, 2024

Israel withdraws most of its troops from the Gaza Strip

What’s happened: Coinciding with the six month anniversary since the October 7th Hamas massacre, the IDF has pulled most of its forces out of the southern Gaza Strip.

  • A single IDF infantry brigade remains deployed along the east-west corridor, bisecting the Strip and preventing access to the north.
  • Defence Minister Gallant said, “The withdrawal of troops from Khan Younis was carried out once Hamas ceased to exist as a military framework in the city… The achievements made by the IDF’s Division 98 and its units, are extremely impressive. They have eliminated terrorists and destroyed terror targets including warehouses, weapons, headquarters, communication centres and more. Their activities enabled the dismantling of Hamas as a functioning military unit in this area.”
  • “Our forces are going to prepare for their follow-up missions. We saw examples of such missions in Shifa, and [will see] such missions in the Rafah area. We will reach a point when Hamas no longer controls the Gaza strip and does not function as a military framework that poses a threat to the citizens of the State of Israel.”
  • In parallel, the Iead Israeli negotiators, Mossad Director David Barnea, Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon are in Cairo for renewed negotiations to reach a deal for the release of some of the hostages.
  • It is understood that the war cabinet has expanded the mandate given to the negotiators.
  • Meanwhile, public pressure on the government continues, with large protests taking place over the weekend. On Sunday night, several thousand people gathered outside the Knesset (despite it being in recess) and called on the government to immediately reach a deal.

Context: At the height of the military operation there were 20 IDF brigades (around 35,000 troops) operating inside the Gaza Strip, now one remains (a few hundred).

  • The withdrawal of the 98th Division effectively ends the four month operation in the southern city of Khan Yunis.
  • However, forces are expected to re-enter and carry out targeted operations based on intelligence and operational needs.
  • According to the IDF, the decision was made having completed its bank of targets identified by their intelligence.
  • Others are speculating that it was due to US pressure and also partly meets Hamas’s demands and may be connected to the negotiations for a hostage release in Cairo. For more analysis of the withdrawal and its implications, see Israeli Media Summary below.
  • Prior to the withdrawal over the weekend, four IDF soldiers were killed in an ambush in the southern Gaza Strip when terrorists emerged from a tunnel shaft and shot the soldiers at close range. Three soldiers were killed instantly; the fourth was wounded and later died of his wounds. The terrorists disappeared back into the shaft, but the soldiers chasing them did not enter it because they identified IEDs that had been placed at the entrance.
  • 260 soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the ground operation, over 3,000 have been injured.
  • On Friday, the Commando Brigade retrieved the body of the one of the hostages, Elad Katzir, from the area of Khan Yunis. Elad was kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz by terrorists along with his mother, Hanna, who was released in November.
  • This leaves 133 hostages held in captivity, with the estimated fear that only half are still alive.
  • The basic formula for a deal presented during the talks is thought to include Hamas freeing about 40 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel and a limited return of Gazans to the north of the Strip. This would be alongside a temporary ceasefire, during which further talks would be held.
  • The IDF released updated data on that has entered into Gaza since the beginning of the war, which has included:
    • 272,000 tons of food
    • 44,190 tons of shelter equipment
    • 29,260 tons of water
    • 20, 310 tons of medical supplies
    • 23,090 tons of mixed equipment
    • 216 tanks of fuel, and 429 tanks of cooking gas.

Looking ahead: The redeployment will now facilitate Gazans who fled to Rafah to be able to return to Khan Yunis.

  • According to Israeli officials, an operation in Rafah is still on the agenda with the removal of the civilian population seen as a prerequisite of a ground incursion.
  • A Rafah operation is seen as essential for four reasons:
    • To engage, destroy, and dismantle the remaining four (out of 24) of the Hamas brigades, thereby removing the last bastions of Hamas military structure.
    • To block the smuggling routes from Egypt, which is crucial to preventing the re-armament of the Strip.
    • To continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership which, having evaded Israeli forces elsewhere, are now seemingly underneath Rafah.
    • To increase to the pressure on Hamas to soften their demands over the hostages negotiations. There is also a chance that the operation could allow for further rescue missions.
  • Due to the sensitivity, any major military operation into Rafah will likely need to be coordinated with the US and Egypt.
  • In parallel, there is cautious optimism that the negotiators for a hostage release and prisoner exchange will reach an agreement, with the Hamas delegation expected to return to Cairo with answers later this week.

April 5, 2024

April 5th – Day 181 of the war: News in Brief

1. Israel continues to brace itself for an Iranian response to Monday’s assassination of senior IRGC commander Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus. Reservists have been called up to reinforce the nation’s aerial defences, while all leave for combat soldiers has been cancelled. Public concern led to panic buying of goods in some areas, prompting IDF Spokesperson Hagari to publicly clarify that there was no change in Home Front Command’s instructions and that there was no need to stock up on supplies. Government officials did tell Israel’s Kan Radio that although there was no expectation that Iran would escalate to all-out war, the state is preparing for the prospect of missile fire from Iranian soil. Authorities will be especially vigilant for an Iranian response today, Iran’s “Quds Day”, when a funeral ceremony will be held for Zahedi and the other IRGC members killed on Tuesday. Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Security Cabinet yesterday that “For years, Iran has been acting against us both directly and via its proxies; therefore, Israel is acting against Iran and its proxies, defensively and offensively. We will know how to defend ourselves and we will act according to the simple principle of whoever harms us or plans to harm us, we will harm them.” In the West Bank, too, Fatah, the main faction in the Palestinian Authority, has accused Iran of seeking to spread chaos in the territory. It would not permit “our sacred cause and the blood of our people to be exploited,” it said. (For more on the assassination of Zahedi and the context of Israel challenging Iranian activity on its northern border, see BICOM’s recent analysis.)

2. This morning, 65,000 Muslim worshippers attended Fajr (dawn) prayers in Jerusalem, the final Friday of Ramadan. Prayers passed off largely peacefully. Eight people were arrested for chants in support of Hamas. Overall, Ramadan has thus far proceeded without major incidents, and the police said that such chanting harms “first and foremost the normative Muslim public who come to the Temple Mount and do not take part in those serious incitement demonstrations.” Thousands of extra officers will be deployed in Jerusalem ahead of Laylat al-Qadr, the holiest night of the year in Islam.

3. In a call with Prime Minister Netanyahu, US President Biden yesterday delivered his sternest warning yet regarding US support for Israel’s war in Gaza. The White House said that Biden urged Israel to “announce and implement a series of specific, concrete and measurable steps to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering and the safety of aid workers.” Failure to do so, he said, would cause the US to review its support. US policy, he said, “will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps.” Biden also called for “an immediate ceasefire,” a move he said “is essential to stabilise and improve the humanitarian situation and protect innocent civilians, and he urged the prime minister to empower his negotiators to conclude a deal without delay to bring the hostages home.” Biden also demanded that those responsible for the killing of seven aid workers from the World Central Kitchen organisation this week be prosecuted.

4. Israel has committed to increasing the volume of entering the Gaza Strip and to speeding up its transfer. The Erez Crossing between Gaza and Israel will be opened for the first time since October 7th, allowing more aid to flow. The port of Ashdod will also be opened to aid. In further signs of a loosening of Israelis restrictions, Israel Hayom revealed that Israel has also begun working with local Gazans affiliated with Fatah to coordinate and secure the delivery and distribution of aid in the Strip. Senior Palestinian Authority official Majed Faraj, the head of the its General Intelligence Service, is thought to have been critical in securing this cooperation. The US has long pushed for a substantial role to be played by a reformed PA in Gaza, an idea Netanyahu has generally rejected.

5. Indictments have been filed against six Arab citizens of Israel and one resident of the West Bank accused of plotting terror attacks in Israel. The terror cell, which called itself “Masra al-Rasul”, planned to launch multiple attacks on the government complex in Jerusalem, Ben Gurion Airport, and on military and security bases. Another element was to have been an assassination attempt, using an RPG, on National Security Minister Ben Gvir in his home settlement of Kiryat Arba. The group also planned to kidnap an Israeli citizen to use as ransom for the release of Palestinian security prisoners. The cell began to form in early 2023, led by Bilal Nasasra of Rahat, who recruited others and sought cooperation and funding from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. In similar news, it was revealed yesterday that three young men from East Jerusalem pledged allegiance to ISIS about a month ago and were planning a series of gun and IED attacks, including on Jerusalem’s Teddy Stadium and a local police precinct. This morning, a Palestinian man was killed after throwing an explosive device at Border Police officers conducting a raid in the West Bank city of Tulkarem.

6. Yesterday, Israel experienced rocket fire from the Gaza Strip for the first time in over a week, whilst attacks have continued on Israel’s north. Rocket fire is now far rarer from Gaza, following Israel’s degrading of terror groups’ capacity in the Strip, and the 12,000 rockets fired since October 7th having depleted their arsenals. Palestinian Islamic Jihad has claimed responsibility for the attacks from Gaza which targeted Sderot, Netivot, and Ashkelon. Sirens were also heard in Kfar Aza. Dishon and Malkia were targeted in the north, and an anti-tank missile was fired from Lebanon at Shlomi where it hit a civilian house. No injuries or casualties were reported. The IDF struck the sites rockets were launched from and conducted operations elsewhere in the Strip. IDF fighter jets struck over 30 targets over the last day while troops hit a number of targets in Khan Yunis.

7. Head of the Mossad Barnea and CIA Director Burns are expected to travel to Cairo this weekend to meet with Egyptian counterparts and the Qatari Prime Minister in an attempt to reach a breakthrough in hostage release negotiations with Hamas. Talks are currently deadlocked given Hamas’s refusal to compromise on its conditions, namely accepting nothing less than a permanent ceasefire and the IDF’s full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. While Israel remains open to a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of elderly, young, female, and unwell hostages, it maintains its position that only military pressure will help it secure a deal with Hamas. Israel is understood to have empowered its negotiators to be even more flexible, including on the potential return of residents to northern Gaza. The complexities involved in this step include how many Gazans will be permitted to return and at what pace; will certain demographics, for example fighting-age men, be allowed to return; will IDF screenings be implemented and to what degree and extent.

8. The US continues to work with Israel on pursuing progress on a future normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia. Minister Dermer is due to travel to Washington next week where he is set to meet with Saudi ambassador to the US, Reema bint Bandar Al Saud. Israel is said to be pushing to ensure that any deal not include the development of a nuclear programme on Saudi soil. This was previously thought to have been a central element in Riyadh’s demands from the US regarding normalisation with Israel, along with other extensive defence commitments.

9. The past week has seen a wave of anti-government protests organised by a coalition of activists, some of whom were active in opposing the government’s judicial reform attempts. Their main calls are for Netanyahu’s resignation following his inability to end the current war in Gaza, and for Israel to hold early elections. Thousands of protestors assembled by the Knesset and prime minister’s residence, which a large group of people attempted to breach on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, activists and relatives of hostages held in Gaza splattered yellow paint over the Knesset’s visitors’ gallery to protest a perceived lack of government action to free their loved ones. In Tel Aviv, the main organisation lobbying on behalf of the families of Israeli hostages in Gaza said it would cease its Saturday night rallies in what has come to be known as Hostages Square and instead join in anti-government protests. Future protests in both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are becoming increasingly likely.

10. War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz has, for the first time, called for the holding of elections in September so as to “maintain unity” and “renew trust” in the government. In a televised briefing, Gantz said “We must agree on a date for elections in September, about a year from the war… Setting such a date will allow us to continue the military effort while signalling to the citizens of Israel that we will soon renew their trust in us”. Despite having previously been part of the opposition, Gantz joined the Israeli government on an emergency basis in October and remains a favourite candidate to potentially replace Netanyahu. Gantz has also suggested that the holding of elections could provide Israel with an increased level of international legitimacy. Likud and Netanyahu have consistently opposed the holding of elections until this war’s conclusion, saying that they “would inevitably lead to paralysis” and undermine the IDF’s ability to fight in Gaza. Polling places Gantz well ahead of Netanyahu, projecting his National Unity party as winning 32 out of 120 Knesset seats.

April 4, 2024

Challenging the Iranian presence in the north 

In light of the targeted strike on Iranian Gen. Mohammed Reza Zahedi, this paper gives the latest assessment on the confrontation between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

Challenging the Iranian presence in the north 

Israel is braced for an Iranian responses after an airstrike in Damascus killed the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Lebanon Corps, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi on Monday 1st April 2024. According to the IRGC, Zahedi’s deputy, Gen. Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi was also killed, along with five other officers, in a strike on a building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. The strike was executed with a high degree of precision, necessitated by the presence nearby of the Canadian embassy. Whilst not commenting on any role it may or may not have had, IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari did say that “according to our intelligence,” the building struck is “no consulate and… no embassy… this is a military building of Quds forces disguised as a civilian building in Damascus.”

In line with longstanding policy, Israel does not generally comment on or confirm operations in (a rare exception came in September last year when Defence Minister Gallant implicitly confirmed Israeli Air Force strikes in northern ). However, Zahedi’s assassination continues a pattern over recent months of killings of IRGC personnel, seemingly designed to degrade and disrupt the flow of Iranian weapons to affiliates and proxies in Lebanon and Syria.  

In parallel, direct Israel-Hezbollah hostilities have further intensified in this time, even as the prevailing consensus remains that both Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand, and Israel on the other, seek keeping fighting below the threshold of all-out war.

For the past decade, Israel has targeted Iranian weapons conveys and storage facilities in its “campaign between the wars”. Israel’s calculus appears to have changed since October 7th, with IRGC and Hezbollah personnel now targeted as well.

The significance of Zahedi 

Zahedi’s (also sometimes known as Hasan Mahdavi) is the most significant assassination thus far attributed to Israel since October 7th.  A hugely experienced officer, Zahedi served as the IRGC’s most senior man in Lebanon and Syria, having previously served as commander of the IRGC’s ground forces.

His role saw him oversee relations between all Iran’s regional affiliates and proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, as well as the Syrian authorities and Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq.

In terms of regional influence, perhaps only Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was of greater importance than Zahedi. He was a key component in the ongoing smuggling of Iranian arms to these groups. Iranian resupply of Hezbollah’s weaponry is an essential element in its ability to wage war on Israel. This resupply has become considerably easier since Iran’s presence in Syria increased following the Syrian civil war. Iran has opened up both a land and air corridor, with the frequency of presumed Israeli strikes around Damascus (and other) airports suggesting that is the primary route.

Zahedi is also believed to have been intimately involved in numerous de facto Iranian attacks on Israel. The March 31st attack on an Eilat naval base by Iranian proxies in Iraq further underscored the threat from Shia proxies in the region.

The operation also marks the most senior assassination of IRGC personnel since the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad in January 2020. Other assassinations have taken place in recent months, however. On December 25th 2023, Sayyed Razi Mousavi, a senior IRGC advisor who played a key role, along with Soleimani, in coordinating between Iran and Syria, was killed in an airstrike in Damascus. On January 20th, 2024, another Damascus airstrike attributed to Israel killed at least five IRGC officers, including Quds Force deputy intelligence officer Sadegh Omidzadeh and his deputy, Hajj Gholam.

Tehran and Hezbollah threaten a response 

The prevailing consensus remains that with the war in Gaza ongoing, Tehran will not seek an escalation which leads to all-out war between Israel and another of its proxies. However, Tehran immediately pledged a “serious response”, while Hezbollah promised “punishment and revenge.” On March 3rd, the IDF announced that “following an IDF situational assessment, it was decided to increase manpower and draft reserve soldiers to the IDF Aerial Defense Array.”

Israel’s embassies around the world have been put on a raised alert level, with Israeli diplomats urged to “take preventive measures and pay greater attention to your surroundings, with emphasis on routine movements.” This advice is based on previous Iranian willingness to strike at diplomatic targets (see, for example, a failed Iranian plot against Israel’s embassy in Baku, Azerbaijan, in July 2023), along with the fact that the strike on Zahedi occurred adjacent to Iran’s Damascus Embassy. The opposition media outlet Iran International quoted Jalal Rashidi Koochi, a senior Iranian parliamentarian, as demanding attacks on embassies in response, with Azerbaijan mentioned as a possible target.

Wider immediate responses are also possible, including the potential for a direct missile or UAV attack from Iran.

Growing tensions on the northern border

Tensions have already increased on the Israel-Lebanon border in recent weeks, with an intensification of the strike and counter-strike dynamic seen between Israel and Hezbollah since October 8th.

Although not responding as Hamas desired in its call for full-scale assault from all members of the “Axis of Resistance” on October 7th, Hezbollah has proceeded with multi-site daily rocket attacks on northern Israel. Analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies claims there have been 4,400 “violent incidents” in the border area since October 8th. This includes, according to the IDF, over 2,800 missiles which have been fired at northern Israel from southern Lebanon and Syria (as of April 3rd).

In comparison with previous rounds of fighting with Israel, Hezbollah is increasingly deploying more sophisticated weaponry, including Iranian-produced Almas anti-tank guided missiles with a 10-kilometre range and the shorter range Burkan with its heavy payload. Iranian-produced Hezbollah UAVs have also been used in at least 40 attacks on Israel since October 7th, some fatal.

Seven Israeli civilians and 12 soldiers have been killed and around 300 fighters on the Lebanese side of the border (mostly Hezbollah, along with some Palestinian militants who operate with its approval). Meanwhile, 80,000 northern Israelis from 28 border communities remain displaced, along with a similar number of southern Lebanese.

The bulk of the exchanges of fire have occurred in the border areas, with Hezbollah targeting Israel’s northern military infrastructure along with civilian areas. Israel, for its part, has returned fire to source, along with seeking to degrade Hezbollah’s elite, 10,000 Radwan force, massed on the border, and its rocket and missile-firing capabilities.

In late February and early March, meanwhile, Israel began to conduct strikes far deeper into Lebanese territory, sometimes as much as 110km from the border. Hezbollah’s Aerial Defence Array in Baalbek was struck by the IDF on February 26th and again on March 11th, which also saw a strike on the group’s aerial forces in nearby Tarayaa. Hamas’s deputy chair and West Bank military commander in Beirut Saleh Al-Arouri was also killed in early January.

Attempts at a ceasefire 

US and French attempts at brokering a sustainable ceasefire on the northern border have so far failed to produce results. In mid-February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border, and dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure compliance with the buffer zone. UNIFIL peacekeeping forces would later support both sides to resume negotiations on the points on dispute on their land border. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been effected in Gaza.

Prospects for further escalation 

The prevailing wisdom has always been that Hezbollah’s 130,000 rocket pile is a powder to be kept dry for the event of a strike on Iran’s ever-advancing nuclear weapons capacity. In addition to its large supply of unguided rockets, the group also possesses precision guided missiles, drones and anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles. It has previously boasted that it can hit any part of Israel. So large an arsenal therefore acts, in the Iranian calculus, as an insurance against an Israel operation against its nuclear programme.

Israel, too, would prefer to keep conflict at a level lower than all-out war, not least because its primary focus remains on the war in Gaza. “We do not want to enter into a war,” with Hezbollah, said Gallant in mid-February, “but rather wish to reach an agreement that will allow the safe return of residents of the north to their homes, under an agreement process. But if there is no choice, we will act to bring [the residents] back and create the appropriate security for them. This should be clear to both our enemies and our friends. And as the State of Israel, the defence establishment, and the IDF have proven in recent months, when we say something, we mean it.”

Therefore, Israel is intensifying its preparations for a northern escalation. Last week, IDF commanders completed a specialised training programme at Northern Command HQ in Safed, including both active and reserve units. On April 1st, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi then approved fresh plans “for the continuation of the fighting” during an assessment held with the commander of the Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin. Public awareness has been increased about the threat of intensified fighting in the north, along with greater preparation for the resulting threats to civilian infrastructure such as communications and energy.

Conclusion 

Israel has also been adamant that the pre-October 7th status quo cannot be maintained, and that something approximating the proposals of the French and US envoy Amos Hochstein must ultimately be implemented. The return of the displaced norther residents would require the Radwan Force redeploying at least seven to ten kilometres north of the border – the range of Hezbollah’s Kornet antitank missiles. UN Security Council Resolution 1701, passed in 2006 after the Second Lebanon War, goes further in demanding that Hezbollah move its forces north of the Litani River. Further CSIS analysis “indicates that Hezbollah’s anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) have struck Israeli forces from concealed launch sites less than three kilometres from the Blue Line on at least 17 occasions since October 7,” an illustration both of the group’s violations of UNSCR 1701 and of the need for the Radwan Force to be pushed back at least seven kilometres from the border. Any move away from the border on the part of Hezbollah fighters will need to be made sustainable, since Hezbollah has a track record of initially complying with such deconfliction steps, before then moving its fighters back closer to the border.

Absent a diplomatic solution succeeding, Israel has suggested that sustainable security for returned northern residents will be secured by force, once its operations in Gaza are sufficiently complete.

April 3, 2024

Israel apologises for the death of aid workers

What happened: IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has responded to the tragic accidental killing of seven members from the World Central Kitchen (WCK).

  • Among the seven killed were three British victims: John Chapman, 57, a former UK special forces soldier; James Henderson, 33, a former Royal Marine; and James Kirby, 47. All were part of the WCK security team.
  • Halevi noted, “WCK is an organisation whose people work across the globe, including in Israel, to do good in difficult conditions. The IDF works together closely with the WCK and greatly appreciates the important work that they do.”
  • He related to the results of a preliminary investigation, “the strike was not carried out with the intention of harming WCK aid workers. It was a mistake that followed a misidentification – at night during a war in very complex conditions. It shouldn’t have happened.”
  • Halevi added, “This incident was a grave mistake. Israel is at war with Hamas, not with the people of Gaza. We are sorry for the unintentional harm to the members of WCK. We share in the grief of their families, as well as the entire WCK Organisation, from the bottom of our hearts.”
  • In addition, IDF Spokesperson, Daniel Hagari said yesterday, “As a professional military committed to international law, we are committed to examining our operations thoroughly and transparently. I just spoke to WCK Founder, Chef Jose Anders, and expressed the deepest condolences of the Israel Defence Forces to the families and the entire WCK family. We also express sincere sorrow to our allied nations who have been doing and continue to do so much to assist those in need.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant said, “IDF soldiers cope every day with a complex operational reality, but the coordination mechanism for distribution of and cooperation with international organisations has to be strengthened.”

International responses: The WCK released a statement that noted, “Despite coordinating movements with the IDF, the convoy was hit as it was leaving the Deir al-Balah warehouse, where the team had unloaded more than 100 tons of humanitarian food aid brought to Gaza on the maritime route.”

  • US President Biden said, “I am outraged and heartbroken by the deaths of seven humanitarian workers from WCK, including one American, in Gaza yesterday. They were providing food to hungry civilians in the middle of a war. They were brave and selfless. Their deaths are a tragedy.”
  • Prime Minister Sunak spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu, telling him, “far too many aid workers and ordinary civilians have lost their lives in Gaza and the situation is increasingly intolerable.”
  • Foreign Secretary Cameron said: “These were people who were working to deliver life-saving aid to those who desperately need it. It is essential that humanitarian workers are protected and able to carry out their work. We have called on Israel to immediately investigate and provide a full, transparent explanation of what happened.”
  • Cameron added, “I spoke with Israeli Foreign Minister Katz to underline that the deaths of WCK aid workers in Gaza, including three British Nationals, are completely unacceptable. Israel must urgently explain how this happened & make major changes to ensure safety of aid workers on the ground.”
  • Israel’s Ambassador to the UK Hotovely was summoned by Foreign Office Minister Andrew Mitchell, during which Mitchell “requested a quick and transparent investigation, shared with the international community, and full accountability.”
  • The UAE government, one of the main funders of the humanitarian maritime corridor to Gaza said they would only renew its involvement if Israel were to provide assurances that aid workers would not be attacked again.

Context: WCK is one of the Israel’s preferred humanitarian partners operating inside Gaza assisting the Gazan civilian population.

  • WCK were also one of the first international NGOs to help Israelis after the massacre of October 7th.
  • Despite Israel taking responsibility, from Israel’s perspective the overall blame is on Hamas, for starting this war. Hamas has in the past embedded itself within other international aid organisations (not WCK) and continues to appropriate aid designated for their own civilians.
  • The onus remains on Hamas to release the hostages and bring an end to the conflict.
  • In these type of incidents, the IDF hands over their material to the “Fact Finding and Assessment Mechanism” (FFAM), which is considered an independent, professional, and expert body.
  • In parallel yesterday, the Israeli government responded to a High Court appeal by human rights organisations to outline the extent of the aid it has helped facilitate in allowing to enter the Strip since the start of the war, this included:
    • 252,585, tonnes of food in 12,000 aid trucks.
    • 401 cooking gas tanks.
    • 3.3 million cubic metres of water via new lines.
    • 28,100 tonnes of water via aid trucks.
    • 19,805 tonnes of medical equipment in 1,705 trucks.

Looking ahead: The incident will now be investigated fully. Halevi announced, “An independent body will investigate the incident thoroughly,  we will complete it in the next coming days. We will learn from the conclusions, and implement them immediately. We will share, in full transparency, the findings of the investigation with the World Central Kitchen and other international relevant organisations.”

  • In addition, a new Humanitarian Command Centre will be established under the IDF Southern Command alongside international organisations to prevent incidents of this kind in future.

April 2, 2024

April 2nd – Day 178 of the war: News in Brief

1. An airstrike in Damascus yesterday killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in , Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi. The strike, for which Iran has blamed Israel, destroyed a building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy. Zahedi is reported as having overseen operations targeting Israel from and Lebanon. He is the most senior IRGC officer killed since Qassem Soleimani’s assassination in January 2020, and his death has prompted an angry Iranian response, with its Ambassador to warning that its response to the strike would be “harsh”. While Israel generally refrains from commenting on operations it conducts in Syria, it is understood as having escalated its efforts to reduce Iranian military entrenchment, including the supply of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah and Iranian proxies. This latest strike follows a number of other senior IRGC figures assassinated in recent months. Meanwhile, Hezbollah continues to fire rockets towards northern Israel, and around 80,000 Israelis from the north remain internally displaced.

2. A reported seven aid workers from the World Central Kitchen organisation (WCK) were killed last night in Gaza. The seven, including one UK citizen, died following an Israeli air strike in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip. The charity announced the suspension of its Gaza operations, while CEO Erin Gore paid tribute to “the love” the victims had for “feeding people, the determination they embodied to show that humanity rises above all,” and said that “the impact they made in countless lives will forever be remembered and cherished”. In a statement, the IDF said it was “conducting a thorough review at the highest levels to understand the circumstances of this tragic incident.” It also stressed that it made “extensive efforts to enable the safe delivery of , and has been working closely with WCK in their vital efforts to provide food and to the people of Gaza.” The charity, which made its name distributing aid in Haiti and in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, led the first maritime shipment of to the Gaza Strip last month, including ingredients for 500,000 meals. Elsewhere, COGAT says that on Sunday 205 humanitarian aid trucks were inspected and transferred to the Strip, with 198 then distributed by UN aid agencies. COGAT says this brings the total number of aid trucks transferred since the outset of the war to 19,776. 232 packages containing thousands of meals were airdropped. 21 ambulances were also transferred, taking the total transferred since the start of the war to 105.

3. The IDF completed their two-week targeted operation against Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad inside the Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Overall, over 500 suspects with terror affiliations were arrested, with 200 terrorists killed. According to the IDF, the fighting included “close-quarters encounters,” while they ”located numerous weapons and intelligence documents throughout the hospital, while preventing harm to civilians, patients, and medical teams.” On Sunday, the IDF revealed that inside the maternity ward, “soldiers discovered many weapons hidden inside pillows, hospital beds, ceilings, and the walls of the compound, including dozens of mortar shells, explosive devices, sniper rifles, Kalashnikov rifles, pistols, magazines, mortars and additional ammunition.” Relating to the subverted use of the hospital, Prime Minister Netanyahu told the cabinet on Sunday, “no hospital anywhere in the world looks like this; this was a terrorist lair.”  Meanwhile, the heads of the US and Israeli militaries have discussed the anticipated operation in Rafah. Israeli media reported on a US proposal whereby the Egyptian border will be sealed, and cameras and sensors will be installed. Rafah will be isolated and surrounded by the IDF. IDF troops will raid specific targets based on intelligence, with joint US-Israeli oversight.

4. Over the last few days, Israel experienced a spate of three terrorist attacks including a shooting in the Jordan Valley, and two stabbings in Gan Yavneh and Beersheva. While thought to be unrelated and not resulting in any fatalities, these attacks will undoubtedly cause concern and alarm against the backdrop of what has otherwise been a relatively peaceful Ramadan. The Beersheva stabbing was perpetrated by a resident of Rahat, and is the second such attack to emanate from the Bedouin city in recent weeks. The Gan Yavneh attack was perpetrated by a West Bank resident thought to be illegally working in Israel and left three wounded – two in very serious condition, one in moderate condition. The Jordan Valley shooting was perpetrated by a Palestinian Authority security officer who turned himself into Israeli authorities after spending two days on the run.

5. A drone launched from Iraq has struck the port of Eilat, causing minor damage to an Israeli Navy base with no reported casualties or fatalities. While identified as it entered Israeli airspace, it was not intercepted by local missile defence systems. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq (IRI), an umbrella group representing a number of Iranian-backed Shia militias, has claimed responsibility for this attack. While IRI has attempted to launch several drone attacks against Israel since November 2023, they have thus far achieved limited success. Most of these attacks have been launched from Syria rather than Iraq, and they have primarily targeted civilian settlements in the Galilee or Golan Heights. The IRI is just one of Iran’s proxies which has been weaponised against Israel since October 7th.

6. Mossad Director David Barnea led an Israeli delegation that returned to Cairo for renewed talks on a hostage deal. It is understood that the war cabinet has given the negotiators more flexibility including allowing residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return. Barnea was quoted in Maariv this morning, telling the Qatari and Egyptian mediators, “this is now the true test for Hamas and Sinwar: Do they want a six-week humanitarian ceasefire for the civilian population of the strip or are they interested in continuing with their foot-dragging, which has caused their people terrible suffering,” According to Palestinian media, Hamas is waiting to hear the outcome of the talks before they return to Cairo. Formally, Hamas continues to demand four conditions: an end to the war, an IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, returning Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip, and increasing humanitarian aid supplies. Responding to criticism that he is not doing enough to reach a deal, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “I have approved rescue operations involving risk to our brave soldiers, but the main part of our activity is combining military pressure with resolute negotiations.  Anyone who says I’m not doing everything to get the hostages back is mistaken and is misleading others. Anyone who knows the truth and repeats this lie is doing the hostages’ families an injustice.”

7. Tens of thousands of Israelis gathered outside the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem on Sunday and Monday, in the first two days of a planned four-day protest demanding the resignation of the Netanyahu government, the release of all the hostages, and the end of the exclusion of the ultra-Orthodox from military service. Sunday’s rally was significantly larger, and organised by the Kaplan Force, Brothers in Arms, and other groups formed in response to last year’s judicial overhaul programme. On Sunday, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid spoke, saying of Netanyahu “How has he not disappeared from our lives after October 7? All he cares about is the office and title, and let the country burn.” Another notable presence at Sunday’s demonstration was Arnon Ben-David, chairman of the Histadrut. Yesterday, Yair Golan, the former Meretz MK and IDF Deputy Chief of Staff who is vying to unify and lead the Israeli political left, told protesters “we could have had the hostages home in a process of renewal, with another government, thrown the judicial reform into the garbage, had a defence budget that makes sense. But instead, we’re stuck with the Netanyahu-Gantz government.” Hostage family members also spoke. Albini Peri, whose grandfather Chaim Peri is still held hostage, said “We demand a deal now, but there won’t be one so long as this government finds it more important to kill Arabs than to save Jews,” he said. “A deal now is elections now.”

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