What’s happened: International media reports this morning claim that Israel has attacked an Iranian air force base near the city of Isfahan.

• Some of the reports claim that the attack was launched using missiles, and that the Isfahan site had been used to launch the UAVs used by Iran to attack Israel last Saturday night.
• Israel has offered no official comments, while official Iranian media claims that Iranian air defence systems had intercepted a number of UAVs and denies that there has been a strike on Isfahan. The New York Times, however, cites three Iranian sources confirming that the military base had been struck.
• A US administration official told CNN that Washington had received prior notification of the Israeli attack on Iran. He said that the administration had not expressed an opinion. This is interpreted in Israel as the US neither approving nor trying to prevent such a strike.
• Meanwhile, the US and UK yesterday announced fresh sanctions against Iran, targeting its UAV and ballistic missile industries.
• Announcing the UK’s sanctions at the G7 summit in Capri, UK Foreign Secretary Cameron said “at a time of great tension in the Middle East, Iran’s decision to launch hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel carried with it a serious risk of thousands of civilian casualties and wider escalation for the region. The sanctions announced today alongside the US demonstrate our unequivocal condemnation of Iran’s attack on a sovereign state.”
• The US Treasury Department added 16 individuals and two entities to its sanctions list, while the UK announced it was sanctioning a further 7 individuals and 6 entities “who have enabled Iran to conduct destabilising regional activity, including its direct attack on Israel.”
• According to the government, the new sanctions target:
  • Armed Forces General Staff: directs and coordinates Iran’s armed forces.
  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy: 1 of Iran’s 2 naval forces.
  • The Khatemolanbia Central Headquarters (KCHQ): responsible for operational command and control of Iran’s armed forces.
  • Major General Gholamali Rashid, Commander KCHQ: responsible for operational command and control of Iran’s armed forces, reports directly to the Supreme Leader.
  • Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, Minister of Defence Armed Forces Logistics: Iran’s Defence Minister, responsible for supporting and equipping the Iranian armed forces.
  • Seid Mir Ahmad Nooshin, Aerospace Industries Organisation (AIO) Director and 4 further individuals related to AIO.

Context: For the past week, Israel has insisted it would respond strongly to Iran’s attack, which included over 300 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones – the first time ever that Iran had attacked Israel directly.

• Some 99 percent of the projectiles were thwarted thanks to Israel’s missile defence systems, along with the active support of the US, UK, France, and Jordan. Cooperation from other regional states, including Saudi Arabia, has been widely claimed but not officially confirmed.
• In the week following, Israel’s allies have repeatedly implored Jerusalem to show restraint in its response, to lower the risk of the escalation spilling over into an all-out regional war.
• An attack of the type being reported in Isfahan would likely meet this criteria, allowing Iran “plausible deniability” and minimising, though not precluding, the likelihood of an Iranian counter-strike.
• It would present a clear message to Iran that Israel can breach its defences and potentially reach its nuclear weapons programme sites.
• A key post-October 7^th security priority for Israel has been reaffirming its deterrent capacity. In Gaza; in the north, where Hezbollah has launched daily barrages against Israeli communities; and in the wider context of the whole Iranian “Axis of Resistance”, the need has been to reestablish that attacks on Israel have serious consequences.
• In responding to Iran’s attack, Israel’s dilemma has been to balance demonstrating this deterrent capacity with not alienating the unprecedented coalition which emerged in thwarting the Iranian attack last Saturday: Israel, the US, UK, other European allies, and pragmatic Arab Sunni states also threatened by Iran.
• In attacking Israel directly, Iran altered the ‘rules of the game’ of its conflict with Israel and shifted from its traditional strategy of attacking through its proxy network.
• Thus, while US reports earlier in the week suggested that Israel might respond to Iran through attacks on its proxies, a limited attack on Iranian soil might achieve this balance, while not ignoring the new paradigm initiated by Iran.
• As well as its other military bases, Isfahan is known to house sites devoted to Iran’s nuclear programme, including the underground Natanz enrichment site. CNN quotes Israeli officials confirming that the nuclear programme was not the target of any Israeli strike.
• Yesterday, Ahmad Haghtalab, the IRGC commander in charge of nuclear security, threatened that any attack on Iran’s nuclear programme would be met with a counter-strike on Israel’s own nuclear sites.
• The Isfahan air base is known to host some of Iran’s US-made F-14 Tomcats, which date back to the period before the 1979 revolution.
• The UK has increased sanctions against Iran several times since October 7^th – its total number of sanctioned entities now tops 400 – though continues to stop short of designating the IRGC a terrorist organisation. 154 new sanctions designations were made in 2023.
• Fresh legislation, “Iran (Sanctions) Regulations 2023”, was introduced in December 2023.

Looking ahead: In parallel to calibrating the nature and scale of its response to Iran, in Gaza, the Israeli assessment remains that achieving its war objectives requires an operation in the southern city of Rafah, home to Hamas’s four remaining battalions and over a million refugees

What’s happened: 18 people were wounded, including 13 reservists, after Hezbollah launched anti-tank missiles and drones toward the Israeli village of Arab al-Aramshe yesterday.

• One IDF reservist is in critical condition and four others seriously wounded.
• The drone was an Iranian-made Ababeel-2T drone, which is capable of providing a real-time video feed to its operator and can carry a payload of more than 40 kilograms of explosives.
• The army is investigating why the launches were not intercepted.
• In response, Israeli fighter jets attacked the launch pads as well as a military structure where Hezbollah members were residing in the southern Lebanese village of Ayta ash Shab. Israel also carried out an airstrike against a site belonging to Hezbollah’s air defence unit in northeast Lebanon’s Baalbek, almost 60 miles from the border.
• This morning, Israeli fighter jets attacked military buildings and other Hezbollah infrastructure in the area of Khiam, southern Lebanon. IDF aircraft also fired at two Hezbollah operatives in the area of the village of Kafr Kila. Both the IDF and Hezbollah report the deaths of two Hezbollah operatives in the latter strike.
• Rocket sirens were activated in several communities along the Israel-Lebanon border, including Kfar Yuval, Kfar Giladi and Metula.
• Yesterday’s attacks follow further escalation on Tuesday, when four Golani Brigade soldiers were wounded in a cross-border operation, amid the firing of dozens of rockets at IDF bases, including the Mt. Meron base and a second base that, according to Hizbullah, houses an Iron Dome battery.
• Two Hezbollah armed drones also infiltrated Israeli airspace from Lebanon and exploded near Beit Hillel, slightly wounding three Israelis.
• Two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were also killed in Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon: Ismail Yousef Baz, the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal district, killed in a strike on a car near Tyre; and Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shehoury
• In other news, fallout continues from Iran’s attack against Israel on April 13^th.
• Following UK and German Foreign Ministers Cameron and Baerbock’s visit to Israel yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu told a cabinet meeting that the two gave “all kinds of suggestions and advice”. Netanyahu said that Israel appreciated it, but that Israelis would “make our own decisions, and… do everything necessary to defend itself.”
• While in Israel, Cameron told reporters that while Israel had the right to respond to Iran, the UK hoped it would do so “in a way that is smart as well as tough and also does as little as possible to escalate this conflict.”
• “The real need,” Cameron added, “is to refocus back on Hamas, back on the hostages, back on getting the aid in, back on getting a pause in the conflict in Gaza,”
• In slightly stronger remarks, having first suggested the Europe would act so that “Iran and its proxies such as Hezbollah or the Houthis must not be allowed to add fuel to the fire,” Baerbock said that “everyone must now act prudently and responsibly.”
• “I’m not talking about giving in,” she added. “I’m talking about prudent restraint, which is nothing less than strength. Because Israel has already shown strength with its defensive victory at the weekend.”

Context: Israel’s strike in Baalbeck, where Hezbollah’s Aerial Defence Array is located, is the sixth time Israel has struck Hezbollah positions in the area since 7 October. (For a detailed analysis of recent escalation in the north, see BICOM’s recent paper ‘Challenging the Iranian presence in the north’.)

• Although not responding as Hamas desired in its call for full-scale assault from all members of the “Axis of Resistance” on October 7th, Hezbollah has proceeded with multi-site daily rocket attacks on northern Israel. Analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies claims there have been 4,400 “violent incidents” in the border area since October 8th. This includes, according to the IDF, over 2,800 missiles which have been fired at northern Israel from southern Lebanon and Syria.
• In comparison with previous rounds of fighting with Israel, Hezbollah is increasingly deploying more sophisticated weaponry, including Iranian-produced Almas anti-tank guided missiles with a 10-kilometre range and the shorter range Burkan with its heavy payload. Iranian-produced Hezbollah UAVs have also been used in at least 40 attacks on Israel since October 7th, some fatal.
• Seven Israeli civilians and 12 soldiers have been killed and around 300 fighters on the Lebanese side of the border (mostly Hezbollah, along with some Palestinian militants who operate with its approval). Meanwhile, 80,000 northern Israelis from 28 border communities remain displaced, along with a similar number of southern Lebanese.
• US and French attempts at brokering a sustainable ceasefire on the northern border have so far failed to produce results. In mid-February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel.
• European Union leaders decided yesterday to step up sanctions against Iran. “The European Union will take further restrictive measures against Iran, notably in relation to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missiles,” leaders said in a joint statement.
• An Egyptian source told London-based Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the US agreed to the Israeli plan for a military operation in Rafah in exchange for a limited response against Iran.

Looking ahead: Israel continues to calibrate the nature of its response to the Iranian attacks.

• Its western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.
• Three Israeli sources told ABC News that Israel prepared for and then aborted retaliatory strikes on at least two nights this week. According to the report, the war cabinet was presented with several different options, including attacking Iranian proxies not on Iranian soil, or a potential cyberattack.
• Israel’s Kan public broadcaster reported that the cabinet had already approved a series of possible responses depending on the scope of the Iranian attack, which were slated to be carried out immediately following the Iranian attack but were shelved after PM Netanyahu spoke to President Biden

What’s happened: As Israel continues to weigh the nature of its response to Iran’s unprecedented attack on Saturday night, significant operations were conducted yesterday in both the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon.

Iran: Israel’s western allies continue to urge a restrained response. Prime Minister Sunak yesterday told Prime Minister Netanyahu in a phone call that “further significant escalation will only deepen instability in the region. This is a moment for calm heads to prevail.”

• Foreign Secretary Cameron arrived in Israel today for talks with senior Israeli officials on Israel’s response to the Iranian attack. Speaking to reporters, Cameron said “It’s clear the Israelis are making a decision to act. We hope they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible.”
• Earlier, alongside German Foreign Minister Baerbock, Cameron met with Israeli President Herzog this morning. Herzog thanked the two for “the UK and Germany’s strong stand alongside Israel in the face of the reprehensible attack by Iran. The whole world must work decisively and defiantly against the threat posed by the Iranian regime which is seeking to undermine the stability of the whole region.”
• US Secretary of State Blinken, meanwhile, spoke with Minister Benny Gantz and with the Qatari prime minister. The State Department said that the US did wish to see further escalation.
• US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, yesterday announced fresh US sanctions on Iran. “In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran,” he said, “including its missile and drone program” as well as the IRGC and the defence ministry. “These new sanctions and other measures will continue a steady drumbeat of pressure to contain and degrade Iran’s military capacity and effectiveness and confront the full range of its problematic behaviours… We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions.”
• The US Treasury Department is said to be seeking to enlist international cooperation in limiting Iran’s export of oil and its access to the microelectronics it needs to produce the kind of drones with which it attacked Israel on Saturday.
• Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, meanwhile, yesterday threatened Israel with a “painful response” if it takes the “slightest action” in retaliation. In a call with Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Raisi said “we firmly declare that the slightest action against Iran’s interests will definitely be met with a severe, extensive and painful response.”

In Gaza: More than 40 targets were struck by the Israeli Air Force, including in central Gaza on rocket launchers primed and ready for attacks on Israel.

• Multiple Palestinian gunmen were killed in clashes on the outskirts of the Nuseirat camp, while an airstrike was carried out against a cell operating an armed drone.
• The IDF says other targets hit included underground rocket launch positions, booby-trapped buildings, structures where operatives were gathered, observation posts, underground sites, and other infrastructure.
• Israeli ground forces, meanwhile, have in the past few days returned to parts of northern Gaza from which they had previously withdrawn. Operations in the town of Beit Hanoun are ongoing.
• Israel media reports today claim that the IDF has begun to raise troop readiness ahead of a large-scale operation in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, and in the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip.

In the north: According to Israeli media, two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were killed yesterday in air strikes in southern Lebanon.

• They were named as Ismail Yousef Baz, the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal district, killed in a strike on a car near Tyre; and Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shehoury, the commander of one of the Radwan Force’s rocket and missile units.
• The IDF said Baz “was involved in advancing and planning rocket and anti-tank missile fire at the State of Israel from the area of the coast in Lebanon, and during the war he organized and planned a range of terror attacks against Israel.”

Context: Israel’s western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.

• In weighing its response, therefore, Israel is forced to balance the need to maintain deterrence following an unprecedented Iranian attack consisting of over 300 missiles and UAVs, and protecting the emerging anti-Iranian Israeli-western-Arab alliance which was illustrated during the attack. (For further analysis see yesterday’s BICOM briefing and Israeli Media Summary below.)
• The US has traditionally been reluctant to pursue particularly punitive measures on Iranian oil exports, for fear of angering China.
• Israel withdrew the bulk of its troops from the Gaza Strip ten days ago, retaining the ability to conduct pinpoint strikes in all areas of the Strip when the need arose.
• The operation in Beit Hanoun, together with Israel’s killing of three of the sons of Hamas Political Bureau Director Ismail Haniyeh in an airstrike in the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza a week ago, indicate that despite IDF achievements in the north, the Hamas presence remains.
• On Monday, the US condemned Hamas for being the obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza, having rejected the latest US-brokered hostage deal.
• “There’s a deal on the table that would achieve much of what Hamas claims it wants to achieve, and they have not taken that deal,” US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.
• “The bottom line is that they have rejected it, and if they did accept it, it would allow for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza of at least six weeks, which would benefit the Palestinian people whom they claim to represent. It would also allow us to continue improvements in the delivery of humanitarian assistance. The bottom line is Hamas needs to take that deal, and they need to explain to the world and to the Palestinian people why they aren’t taking it because it is Hamas right now that is the barrier and the obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza.”
• The basic formula for the deal rejected by Hamas is thought to have included Hamas freeing about 40 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel and a limited return of Gazans to the north of the Strip. This would be alongside a temporary ceasefire, during which further talks would be held.
• Israel continues to maintain that for Hamas to be fully defeated as a military force in Gaza, an operation in its last stronghold of Rafah is required. However, an operation there would likely require the removal of the civilian population.
• Due to the sensitivity, any major military operation into Rafah will likely need to be coordinated with the US and Egypt.
• On Monday, the US welcomed the increase in the flow of aid to the Strip. “The aid has increased and quite dramatically in just the last few days,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said. “That’s important, but it has to be sustained.”

What’s happened: Israel and its western allies continue to brace for an anticipated Iranian attack on Israel in response to the assassination of senior IRGC commander Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus last week.

• The IDF and Mossad have approved plans for an attack on Iran in the event that Iran attacks Israel, with the IDF confirming it is “on alert and highly prepared for various scenarios”, as The Wall Street Journal quotes US officials warning that an attack, “possibly on Israeli soil”, could happen as soon as in the next 24-48 hours.
• “We are ready for attack and defence using a variety of capabilities that the IDF has, and also ready with our strategic partners,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said yesterday.
• Visiting an IAF base yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel has “set a simple principle: anyone who hits us, we will hit them. we are prepared to meet the State of Israel’s security needs in both defence and offence.”
• Iran’s IRGC is said to have presented a number of attack options to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while unverified tweets from IRGC-associated X accounts have posted videos simulating strikes on the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev and on Haifa airport.
• US CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla arrived in Israel yesterday. He will meet today with Israeli counterparts to discuss Israeli-US coordination in preparation for an Iranian attack.
• Meanwhile, four of Israel’s principle western allies – the US, UK, France, and Germany – have warned Iran against launching an attack on Israeli territory. UK Foreign Secretary Cameron spoke with his Iranian counterpart, as did the German foreign minister.
• “Today I made clear to Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian,” Cameron wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “that Iran must not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict. I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence. Iran should instead work to de-escalate and prevent further attacks.”
• US Secretary of State Blinken, meanwhile, has spoken with Chinese, Turkish, Saudi and European counterparts, “to make clear that escalation is not in anyone’s interest and that countries should urge Iran not to escalate.”
• Israeli Defence Minister Gallant spoke with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin last night – their second conversation in less than a week. Austin reiterated President Biden’s message in public comments made earlier this week – of  “ironclad US support for Israel’s defence in the face of growing threats from Iran and its regional proxies.”
• Gallant’s office said he “emphasised that Israel will not accept an Iranian attack on Israeli territory… Gallant told Secretary Austin that he is committed to the security of the citizens of Israel, and therefore a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory will require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran.”
• Israel’s diplomatic missions overseas remain on the highest state of alert, with some of them closed and their staff instructed to work from home. The US, meanwhile, has instructed staff at its Israeli embassy not to travel beyond the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Beersheba areas.
• Israel’s Home Front Command, responsible for civilian defence, has made no changes to their instructions and guidelines. Despite this, many Israelis are stocking up on dry goods, bottled water, and even generators in some cases. As schoolchildren break up ahead of the Passover holiday, there have been numerous accounts of pupils being told to take their books home with them in case they need to move to remote learning after the holiday as a result of an Iranian escalation.

Context: The unified approach of Israel’s allies, and their reaffirmed commitment to Israel’s security in the face of the Iranian threat, indicates that recent disagreements over the conduct of Israel’s war in Gaza have not altered the calculus when it comes to Iran.

• Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin all recognise that the Iranian threat is against western interests and values as well as Israel. As well as the deepening immediate strategic cooperation, Kurill’s visit is intended as a clear warning to Tehran that the US and Israel are in close coordination.
• The western interest is also in preventing an Iranian response and the subsequent Israeli reaction from spiralling to an all-out regional war.
• Iran is thought to have delivered a message to the US, conveyed by its Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian during a visit to Oman last weekend, that its response will seek to avoid dramatic escalation of this kind.
• However, seasoned Israeli commentators are warning that the current crisis is likely to see the end of a nearly four-decade status quo, in which Israeli-Iranian hostilities are played out not in the direct exchange of fire but through Iran’s regional proxies.
• This would represent a seismic paradigm shift in long-term Israel policy and in strategic thinking post-October 7^th. Since hostilities with Hezbollah intensified, the Israeli approach has been to degrade the Iranian proxy’s aerial capability and its elite Radwan Force, generally in the border area, but to keep the conflict contained and short of all-out war. Similarly, Israel has not struck decisively at the Yemeni Houthis, despite the group (another Iranian proxy) having launched repeated attacks directed at Israeli soil and airspace.
• On the specifics of an anticipated Iranian attack, Tehran has a range of options, though the likeliest scenario would see a multi-front attack using UAVs and cruise missiles, launched either from Iranian soil or via proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
• Israeli reports indicate that Austin also complained to Gallant that the US was not given advanced warning of the attack which killed Zahedi. Israel has not official confirmed responsibility for the attack, though the IDF spokesperson did say that the building hit was not an embassy but “a military building of Quds forces disguised as a civilian building.”
• A report on Israel’s Channel 12, meanwhile, has alleged that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar is delaying his formal response to the latest US-brokered hostage proposal in the hope of an Iranian attack on Israel.
• Along with preparation for a direct Iranian threat, the northern border remains a likely site of escalation. New data from the Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot has revealed the scale of Hezbollah aggression post-October 7^th. It has fired a total of 3,100 rockets and mortar shells at northern Israel since that day. By comparison, a total of 4,400 were fired during the entire Second Lebanon War. Some 240 “heavy bombs” have been fired, along with at least 700 anti-tank missiles, and at least 33 explosive UAVs, 55 sniper attempts, and seven attempts at infiltrating Israeli territory.
• In response, Israel has conducted 1,400 air strikes and 3,300 ground attacks, destroying hundreds of weapons stores and military installations. In terms of casualties, says Yediot Ahronot, 14 IDF soldiers and eight Israeli civilians have been killed. 280 Hezbollah fighters have been killed, along with 70 non-Hezbollah Palestinian fighters.

What’s happened: Mixed reports are emerging from Cairo about the prospects of an agreement on a hostage release/prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas.

• An unnamed Israeli official told Channel 13 News yesterday that “we’ve held very significant talks in the past few hours. The United States has taken meaningful leadership and is applying heavy pressure on the mediators. The American proposal is far-reaching; it includes a very broad mandate. No one can say that the Israeli rope is short. All of the elements are in it—moving IDF troops and a return of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip.”
• Yesterday, Defence Minister Gallant said, “We are ready to make difficult decisions in order to get the hostages back. I think that we are at a good point for a deal.”
• Hamas officials, meanwhile, told international media that current proposals still fell well short of their minimum demands. Senior Hamas official Ali Baraka said: “We reject the latest Israeli proposals that the Egyptian side informed us of. The politburo met today and decided this.”
• Another senior official, Mahmoud Mardawi, said the proposal “doesn’t address in any way our demands: a full withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, a ceasefire, an unconditional return of the displaced to the northern Gaza Strip and help in the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction.”
• On a visit to Germany – a key Israeli ally – Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana offered hope for a deal but cautioned that “pitted against us is a cynical and cruel enemy that has already resorted in the past to lies and emotional manipulations. These moments of the negotiations are tense moments in which we need to have nerves of steel; [we need to] test the seriousness of [Hamas’s] intentions and to embrace and to strengthen the families.”
• Visiting Washington, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid pledged his support for any hostage deal.
• Yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu came under pressure from far-right elements in his coalition. Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir both complained that the wider security cabinet was being sidelined and crucial decisions on the flexibility given to Israeli negotiators and other aspects of the war taken only by the narrower war cabinet.
• Smotrich first made his criticisms public in a letter made available to the media, before later meeting privately with Netanyahu. His demand that a security cabinet meeting be held was agreed to, with a meeting set for this evening.
• Both Smotrich and Ben Gvir oppose any hostage proposals which limit Israeli freedom of operation in the Gaza Strip. Ben Gvir said yesterday that Netanyahu would have no mandate to continue as prime minister unless an operation in Rafah – home to Hamas’s remaining four battalions and thought to contain both its senior leadership and many of the surviving hostages – was authorised.
• Smotrich, meanwhile, wrote: “For several weeks now, I have been warning that instead of taking our foot of the gas, we need to increase pressure on Hamas in Gaza and that this is the only way we will be able to get back the hostages and destroy Hamas.”
• In response, Netanyahu said publicly that “we are constantly acting to achieve our objectives, first among them the release of all our hostages, and the attainment of total victory over Hamas. That victory mandates an entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there. That is going to happen; there is a date.”

Context: Israel’s military withdrawal yesterday can be interpreted as a tangible display of its flexibility and openness to a hostage deal. However, it has made clear that it retains the freedom to operate in Gaza if required, including a future operation in Rafah.

• An important, and tragic, complicating element of a potential deal is Hamas’s ability to furnish Israel with 40 names of hostages meeting the criteria for the first phase of a release.
• Under proposals, women, female soldiers, men over the age of 50, and men under the age of 50 with serious medical conditions are set to be freed. Reports suggest that Hamas has claimed it does not have 40 hostages still alive who meet these criteria.
• Israel is thought to have responded that 40 remains the number to be released, and that if that is indeed the case, a single digit number of living hostages not meeting these criteria should be included. For each of these hostages, Israel would agree to a higher number of Palestinian prisoners being released from Israeli jails.
• Israel is thought to be prepared to show significant flexibility on the return of northern Gazans to their former places of residence. Such a return would likely be phased and subject to demographic restrictions to ensure that Hamas and other terror organisations do not return.
• Hamas’s previous model of collective decision-making amongst its most senior leadership is thought no longer to apply. Instead, the final decision on agreeing to or rejecting proposals is thought to rest solely with its Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar. Delays in reaching and then getting responses from Sinwar will likely mean Hamas’s response comes in the next days.
• To Smotrich and Ben Gvir’s claims that the security cabinet is being sidelined, last November’s release of over 40 hostages was indeed first agreed by the war cabinet before then being put to the security cabinet.
• Hamas’s demand that 900 Palestinian prisoners be released, including at least 100 serving life sentences for murder, is hugely contentious in Israel. Frequent reference is made to the 2011 exchange of over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for Gilad Shalit. Multiple released prisoners went on to take part in October 7^th or other terrorist acts against Israel, chief among them the mastermind of the massacres, Sinwar.
• The Israeli calculation remains that an operation in Rafah remains necessary for the full defeat of Hamas and is also the best way to exert pressure on Hamas to agree to hostage releases. The Israel withdrawal from Khan Yunis presents an opportunity for Gazan civilians to leave the Rafah area.
• The withdrawal of forces from Gaza also allows the military to afford troops an opportunity for time away from the front and for maintenance work to be done on military equipment.
• US National Security Spokesperson John Kirby said yesterday that “we do not support a major ground operation in Rafah and we have no indication that it will happen soon. The Israelis indicated to us that there would be no action in Rafah before we hold a meeting on the issue. We informed the Israelis that we are interested in the daily entry of 300-350 trucks into the Strip.”
• COGAT has announced that 419 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday – the highest number of trucks to enter in a single day since the start of the war. The previous record high came the day before, with 322 entering.

Looking ahead: Negotiators now await a formal Hamas response to the latest proposals.

• Following the pressure from right-wing coalition members, the security cabinet is due to meet this evening. It would likely be reconvened to approve a war cabinet decision if there is a breakthrough in hostage negotiations.
• If these negotiations fail to produce a deal, Israel’s political echelon remains primed to authorise an operation in Rafah