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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated April 22, 2024

US Congress Passes Military Aid Bill

What’s happened: On Saturday, the US House of Representatives passed a bill including $17 billion (£13.75 billion) in military aid to Israel. Some $9 billion is also set to be allocated to humanitarian relief in Gaza and other conflict zones.

  • $5.2 billion will go toward replenishing and expanding Israel’s missile and rocket defence systems; $3.5 billion to purchasing advanced weapons systems; $1 billion to enhancing weapons production; $4.4 billion for other defence supplies and services; and some $2.4 billion to US operations in the region amid the Gaza war.
  • The aid package, which also included $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, had become a hugely divisive political issue in the US, with House Republicans split, many siding against Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson in opposing the bill. In the event, the bill passed 311 to 112, with 101 Republicans voting against.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu said the bill “demonstrates strong bipartisan support for Israel and defends Western civilisation. Thank you friends, thank you America!”
  • Elsewhere, in an unprecedented move, the US is set to impose sanctions on the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda unit, citing alleged human rights violations against Palestinians in the West Bank. The sanctions will see US military aid blocked from being used to fund Netzah Yehuda.
  • Responding on X (formerly Twitter), Netanyahu said “sanctions must not be imposed on the Israel Defence Force… at a time our soldiers are fighting the terrorist monster, the intention of imposing sanctions on an IDF unit is the height of absurdity and a moral low point.”
  • National Unity Party Chairman and war cabinet Minister Gantz wrote, “the Netzah Yehuda battalion is an inseparable part of the IDF. It is subject to military law and is responsible for operating in full compliance with international law. The State of Israel has a strong, independent judicial system that evaluates meticulously any claim of a violation or deviation from IDF orders and code of conduct, and will continue to do so.”
  • “I have great appreciation for our American friends, but the decision to impose sanctions on an IDF unit and its soldiers sets a dangerous precedent and conveys the wrong message to our shared enemies during war time. I intend on acting to have this decision changed.”
  • Opposition leader Lapid said the move was “a mistake,” but that “the source of the problem is not at the military level but at the political level.”

Context: The announcements on aid and sanctions come as more details emerge regarding Israel’s attack on an Iranian air base in Isfahan last week, in retaliation for Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel of April 13th.

  • Israel faced a dilemma on how best to respond to the attack, which included a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles and weaponised UAVs. Its response needed to be strong even to restore deterrence but not so strong as to provoke further Iranian aggression and jeapordise international support.
  • A single missile was therefore fired from an Israeli F-15, deployed at an Iranian Air Force base, while included deployment of a Russian S-300 battery which protected the nuclear facility in Natanz.
  • The targeted strike sent a clear message to Iran that while its own attack on Israel consisted of over 300 projectiles which caused minimal damage, Israel was able to penetrate Iranian defences and reach a nuclear site area with just one missile.
  • Israel not publicly claiming the attack also gave Iran room to “plausibly deny” that the attack took place, thus minimising the risk of an Iranian counter-response.
  • Having successfully navigated the issue, there is a hope that Israel and the US can advance their coordination over a potential incursion into Rafah.
  • Israel maintains that the achievement of its war aims requires an operation in Hamas’s last Gazan stronghold – home to its remaining four battalions. The US has opposed the operation, citing the severe humanitarian situation in the Strip and the fate of over a million Gazan refugees sheltering in the city.
  • Heeding US calls for a non-escalatory response to Iran might well give Israel diplomatic currency to consider an operation in Gaza in coordination with Washington.
  • The Netzah Yehuda unit is comprised largely of ultra-Orthodox recruits and has faced scrutiny for a number of incidents involving Palestinians. In December 2022, it was moved out of the West Bank and onto the Syrian border. It is currently fighting on the Gazan front.
  • The apparent US sanctions will follow similar measures taken in recent months, and imposed by the UK as well, targeting those identified as violent West Bank settlers.
  • This comes amid a recent increase in violence. This morning, three were lightly injured in a car-ramming attacks in Jerusalem.
  • Yesterday, three West Bank Palestinians died after what the IDF said were attacks against Israeli soldiers, while over the weekend the IDF continued a counter terror operation in the Tulkarem area. 13 out of 14 Palestinians killed were identified as jihadist fighters and nine Israeli troops injured.
  • High tensions remains in the West Bank following the killing and abduction of an Israeli 14-year-old, which precipitated retaliatory attacks by some settlers in the area. Following a manhunt, a suspect was arrested this morning.

Looking ahead: The US aid package will now move to the Senate this week, with lawmakers expected to vote in favour.

  • Tonight marks the beginning of Passover, as well as the milestone of 200 days in captivity for the remaining 133 Israeli hostages in Gaza.
  • Reports suggest that US pressure on Qatar may lead to Hamas’s external leadership seeking relocation. Adding fuel to these rumours, senior Hamas leaders Ismail Haniya and Khaled Mashal met with Turkish Erdogan on Saturday.

April 19, 2024

Reports of retaliatory Israeli strike on Iranian air base

What’s happened: International media reports this morning claim that Israel has attacked an Iranian air force base near the city of Isfahan.

  • Some of the reports claim that the attack was launched using missiles, and that the Isfahan site had been used to launch the UAVs used by Iran to attack Israel last Saturday night.
  • Israel has offered no official comments, while official Iranian media claims that Iranian air defence systems had intercepted a number of UAVs and denies that there has been a strike on Isfahan. The New York Times, however, cites three Iranian sources confirming that the military base had been struck.
  • A US administration official told CNN that Washington had received prior notification of the Israeli attack on Iran. He said that the administration had not expressed an opinion. This is interpreted in Israel as the US neither approving nor trying to prevent such a strike.
  • Meanwhile, the US and UK yesterday announced fresh sanctions against Iran, targeting its UAV and ballistic missile industries.
  • Announcing the UK’s sanctions at the G7 summit in Capri, UK Foreign Secretary Cameron said “at a time of great tension in the Middle East, Iran’s decision to launch hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel carried with it a serious risk of thousands of civilian casualties and wider escalation for the region. The sanctions announced today alongside the US demonstrate our unequivocal condemnation of Iran’s attack on a sovereign state.”
  • The US Treasury Department added 16 individuals and two entities to its sanctions list, while the UK announced it was sanctioning a further 7 individuals and 6 entities “who have enabled Iran to conduct destabilising regional activity, including its direct attack on Israel.”
  • According to the government, the new sanctions target:
    • Armed Forces General Staff: directs and coordinates Iran’s armed forces.
    • The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy: 1 of Iran’s 2 naval forces.
    • The Khatemolanbia Central Headquarters (KCHQ): responsible for operational command and control of Iran’s armed forces.
    • Major General Gholamali Rashid, Commander KCHQ: responsible for operational command and control of Iran’s armed forces, reports directly to the Supreme Leader.
    • Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, Minister of Defence Armed Forces Logistics: Iran’s Defence Minister, responsible for supporting and equipping the Iranian armed forces.
    • Seid Mir Ahmad Nooshin, Aerospace Industries Organisation (AIO) Director and 4 further individuals related to AIO.

Context: For the past week, Israel has insisted it would respond strongly to Iran’s attack, which included over 300 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones – the first time ever that Iran had attacked Israel directly.

  • Some 99 percent of the projectiles were thwarted thanks to Israel’s missile defence systems, along with the active support of the US, UK, France, and Jordan. Cooperation from other regional states, including Saudi Arabia, has been widely claimed but not officially confirmed.
  • In the week following, Israel’s allies have repeatedly implored Jerusalem to show restraint in its response, to lower the risk of the escalation spilling over into an all-out regional war.
  • An attack of the type being reported in Isfahan would likely meet this criteria, allowing Iran “plausible deniability” and minimising, though not precluding, the likelihood of an Iranian counter-strike.
  • It would present a clear message to Iran that Israel can breach its defences and potentially reach its nuclear weapons programme sites.
  • A key post-October 7th security priority for Israel has been reaffirming its deterrent capacity. In Gaza; in the north, where Hezbollah has launched daily barrages against Israeli communities; and in the wider context of the whole Iranian “Axis of Resistance”, the need has been to reestablish that attacks on Israel have serious consequences.
  • In responding to Iran’s attack, Israel’s dilemma has been to balance demonstrating this deterrent capacity with not alienating the unprecedented coalition which emerged in thwarting the Iranian attack last Saturday: Israel, the US, UK, other European allies, and pragmatic Arab Sunni states also threatened by Iran.
  • In attacking Israel directly, Iran altered the ‘rules of the game’ of its conflict with Israel and shifted from its traditional strategy of attacking through its proxy network.
  • Thus, while US reports earlier in the week suggested that Israel might respond to Iran through attacks on its proxies, a limited attack on Iranian soil might achieve this balance, while not ignoring the new paradigm initiated by Iran.
  • As well as its other military bases, Isfahan is known to house sites devoted to Iran’s nuclear programme, including the underground Natanz enrichment site. CNN quotes Israeli officials confirming that the nuclear programme was not the target of any Israeli strike.
  • Yesterday, Ahmad Haghtalab, the IRGC commander in charge of nuclear security, threatened that any attack on Iran’s nuclear programme would be met with a counter-strike on Israel’s own nuclear sites.
  • The Isfahan air base is known to host some of Iran’s US-made F-14 Tomcats, which date back to the period before the 1979 revolution.
  • The UK has increased sanctions against Iran several times since October 7th – its total number of sanctioned entities now tops 400 – though continues to stop short of designating the IRGC a terrorist organisation. 154 new sanctions designations were made in 2023.
  • Fresh legislation, “Iran (Sanctions) Regulations 2023”, was introduced in December 2023.

Looking ahead: In parallel to calibrating the nature and scale of its response to Iran, in Gaza, the Israeli assessment remains that achieving its war objectives requires an operation in the southern city of Rafah, home to Hamas’s four remaining battalions and over a million refugees

April 18, 2024

18 wounded in Hezbollah attacks

What’s happened: 18 people were wounded, including 13 reservists, after Hezbollah launched anti-tank missiles and drones toward the Israeli village of Arab al-Aramshe yesterday.

  • One IDF reservist is in critical condition and four others seriously wounded.
  • The drone was an Iranian-made Ababeel-2T drone, which is capable of providing a real-time video feed to its operator and can carry a payload of more than 40 kilograms of explosives.
  • The army is investigating why the launches were not intercepted.
  • In response, Israeli fighter jets attacked the launch pads as well as a military structure where Hezbollah members were residing in the southern Lebanese village of Ayta ash Shab. Israel also carried out an airstrike against a site belonging to Hezbollah’s air defence unit in northeast Lebanon’s Baalbek, almost 60 miles from the border.
  • This morning, Israeli fighter jets attacked military buildings and other Hezbollah infrastructure in the area of Khiam, southern Lebanon. IDF aircraft also fired at two Hezbollah operatives in the area of the village of Kafr Kila. Both the IDF and Hezbollah report the deaths of two Hezbollah operatives in the latter strike.
  • Rocket sirens were activated in several communities along the Israel-Lebanon border, including Kfar Yuval, Kfar Giladi and Metula.
  • Yesterday’s attacks follow further escalation on Tuesday, when four Golani Brigade soldiers were wounded in a cross-border operation, amid the firing of dozens of rockets at IDF bases, including the Mt. Meron base and a second base that, according to Hizbullah, houses an Iron Dome battery.
  • Two Hezbollah armed drones also infiltrated Israeli airspace from Lebanon and exploded near Beit Hillel, slightly wounding three Israelis.
  • Two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were also killed in Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon: Ismail Yousef Baz, the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal district, killed in a strike on a car near Tyre; and Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shehoury
  • In other news, fallout continues from Iran’s attack against Israel on April 13th.
  • Following UK and German Foreign Ministers Cameron and Baerbock’s visit to Israel yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu told a cabinet meeting that the two gave “all kinds of suggestions and advice”. Netanyahu said that Israel appreciated it, but that Israelis would “make our own decisions, and… do everything necessary to defend itself.”
  • While in Israel, Cameron told reporters that while Israel had the right to respond to Iran, the UK hoped it would do so “in a way that is smart as well as tough and also does as little as possible to escalate this conflict.”
  • “The real need,” Cameron added, “is to refocus back on Hamas, back on the hostages, back on getting the aid in, back on getting a pause in the conflict in Gaza,”
  • In slightly stronger remarks, having first suggested the Europe would act so that “Iran and its proxies such as Hezbollah or the Houthis must not be allowed to add fuel to the fire,” Baerbock said that “everyone must now act prudently and responsibly.”
  • “I’m not talking about giving in,” she added. “I’m talking about prudent restraint, which is nothing less than strength. Because Israel has already shown strength with its defensive victory at the weekend.”

Context: Israel’s strike in Baalbeck, where Hezbollah’s Aerial Defence Array is located, is the sixth time Israel has struck Hezbollah positions in the area since 7 October. (For a detailed analysis of recent escalation in the north, see BICOM’s recent paper ‘Challenging the Iranian presence in the north’.)

  • Although not responding as Hamas desired in its call for full-scale assault from all members of the “Axis of Resistance” on October 7th, Hezbollah has proceeded with multi-site daily rocket attacks on northern Israel. Analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies claims there have been 4,400 “violent incidents” in the border area since October 8th. This includes, according to the IDF, over 2,800 missiles which have been fired at northern Israel from southern Lebanon and .
  • In comparison with previous rounds of fighting with Israel, Hezbollah is increasingly deploying more sophisticated weaponry, including Iranian-produced Almas anti-tank guided missiles with a 10-kilometre range and the shorter range Burkan with its heavy payload. Iranian-produced Hezbollah UAVs have also been used in at least 40 attacks on Israel since October 7th, some fatal.
  • Seven Israeli civilians and 12 soldiers have been killed and around 300 fighters on the Lebanese side of the border (mostly Hezbollah, along with some Palestinian militants who operate with its approval). Meanwhile, 80,000 northern Israelis from 28 border communities remain displaced, along with a similar number of southern Lebanese.
  • US and French attempts at brokering a sustainable ceasefire on the northern border have so far failed to produce results. In mid-February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel.
  • European Union leaders decided yesterday to step up sanctions against Iran. “The European Union will take further restrictive measures against Iran, notably in relation to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missiles,” leaders said in a joint statement.
  • An Egyptian source told London-based Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the US agreed to the Israeli plan for a military operation in Rafah in exchange for a limited response against Iran.

Looking ahead: Israel continues to calibrate the nature of its response to the Iranian attacks.

  • Its western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.
  • Three Israeli sources told ABC News that Israel prepared for and then aborted retaliatory strikes on at least two nights this week. According to the report, the war cabinet was presented with several different options, including attacking Iranian proxies not on Iranian soil, or a potential cyberattack.
  • Israel’s Kan public broadcaster reported that the cabinet had already approved a series of possible responses depending on the scope of the Iranian attack, which were slated to be carried out immediately following the Iranian attack but were shelved after PM Netanyahu spoke to President Biden

April 17, 2024

Cameron arrives in Israel, urges de-escalation

What’s happened: As Israel continues to weigh the nature of its response to Iran’s unprecedented attack on Saturday night, significant operations were conducted yesterday in both the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon.

Iran: Israel’s western allies continue to urge a restrained response. Prime Minister Sunak yesterday told Prime Minister Netanyahu in a phone call that “further significant escalation will only deepen instability in the region. This is a moment for calm heads to prevail.”

  • Foreign Secretary Cameron arrived in Israel today for talks with senior Israeli officials on Israel’s response to the Iranian attack. Speaking to reporters, Cameron said “It’s clear the Israelis are making a decision to act. We hope they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible.”
  • Earlier, alongside German Foreign Minister Baerbock, Cameron met with Israeli President Herzog this morning. Herzog thanked the two for “the UK and Germany’s strong stand alongside Israel in the face of the reprehensible attack by Iran. The whole world must work decisively and defiantly against the threat posed by the Iranian regime which is seeking to undermine the stability of the whole region.”
  • US Secretary of State Blinken, meanwhile, spoke with Minister Benny Gantz and with the Qatari prime minister. The State Department said that the US did wish to see further escalation.
  • US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, yesterday announced fresh US sanctions on Iran. “In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran,” he said, “including its missile and drone program” as well as the IRGC and the defence ministry. “These new sanctions and other measures will continue a steady drumbeat of pressure to contain and degrade Iran’s military capacity and effectiveness and confront the full range of its problematic behaviours… We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions.”
  • The US Treasury Department is said to be seeking to enlist international cooperation in limiting Iran’s export of oil and its access to the microelectronics it needs to produce the kind of drones with which it attacked Israel on Saturday.
  • Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, meanwhile, yesterday threatened Israel with a “painful response” if it takes the “slightest action” in retaliation. In a call with Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Raisi said “we firmly declare that the slightest action against Iran’s interests will definitely be met with a severe, extensive and painful response.”

In Gaza: More than 40 targets were struck by the Israeli Air Force, including in central Gaza on rocket launchers primed and ready for attacks on Israel.

  • Multiple Palestinian gunmen were killed in clashes on the outskirts of the Nuseirat camp, while an airstrike was carried out against a cell operating an armed drone.
  • The IDF says other targets hit included underground rocket launch positions, booby-trapped buildings, structures where operatives were gathered, observation posts, underground sites, and other infrastructure.
  • Israeli ground forces, meanwhile, have in the past few days returned to parts of northern Gaza from which they had previously withdrawn. Operations in the town of Beit Hanoun are ongoing.
  • Israel media reports today claim that the IDF has begun to raise troop readiness ahead of a large-scale operation in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, and in the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip.

In the north: According to Israeli media, two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were killed yesterday in air strikes in southern Lebanon.

  • They were named as Ismail Yousef Baz, the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal district, killed in a strike on a car near Tyre; and Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shehoury, the commander of one of the Radwan Force’s rocket and missile units.
  • The IDF said Baz “was involved in advancing and planning rocket and anti-tank missile fire at the State of Israel from the area of the coast in Lebanon, and during the war he organized and planned a range of terror attacks against Israel.”

Context: Israel’s western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.

  • In weighing its response, therefore, Israel is forced to balance the need to maintain deterrence following an unprecedented Iranian attack consisting of over 300 missiles and UAVs, and protecting the emerging anti-Iranian Israeli-western-Arab alliance which was illustrated during the attack. (For further analysis see yesterday’s BICOM briefing and Israeli Media Summary below.)
  • The US has traditionally been reluctant to pursue particularly punitive measures on Iranian oil exports, for fear of angering China.
  • Israel withdrew the bulk of its troops from the Gaza Strip ten days ago, retaining the ability to conduct pinpoint strikes in all areas of the Strip when the need arose.
  • The operation in Beit Hanoun, together with Israel’s killing of three of the sons of Hamas Political Bureau Director Ismail Haniyeh in an airstrike in the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza a week ago, indicate that despite IDF achievements in the north, the Hamas presence remains.
  • On Monday, the US condemned Hamas for being the obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza, having rejected the latest US-brokered hostage deal.
  • “There’s a deal on the table that would achieve much of what Hamas claims it wants to achieve, and they have not taken that deal,” US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.
  • “The bottom line is that they have rejected it, and if they did accept it, it would allow for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza of at least six weeks, which would benefit the Palestinian people whom they claim to represent. It would also allow us to continue improvements in the delivery of humanitarian assistance. The bottom line is Hamas needs to take that deal, and they need to explain to the world and to the Palestinian people why they aren’t taking it because it is Hamas right now that is the barrier and the obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza.”
  • The basic formula for the deal rejected by Hamas is thought to have included Hamas freeing about 40 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel and a limited return of Gazans to the north of the Strip. This would be alongside a temporary ceasefire, during which further talks would be held.
  • Israel continues to maintain that for Hamas to be fully defeated as a military force in Gaza, an operation in its last stronghold of Rafah is required. However, an operation there would likely require the removal of the civilian population.
  • Due to the sensitivity, any major military operation into Rafah will likely need to be coordinated with the US and Egypt.
  • On Monday, the US welcomed the increase in the flow of aid to the Strip. “The aid has increased and quite dramatically in just the last few days,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said. “That’s important, but it has to be sustained.”

April 16, 2024

Israel considers response to Iranian attack

What’s happened: The Israeli war cabinet met yesterday to discuss Israel’s response to Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday night. (For details and initial analysis of the attack see BICOM’s briefing.)

  • Kan Radio summarises Prime Minister Netanyahu as saying at the meeting that Israel must respond, but must do so judiciously.
  • Visiting the IAF Nevatim base targeted by Iran, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said “Iran wanted to damage the State of Israel’s strategic capabilities. This is something that has never happened before. When we look ahead, we are weighing our steps and this strike, with so many cruise missiles and UAVs on Israeli territory, will be met with a response.”
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari said that “the range of options that the State of Israel has at its disposal is broader and bigger” than that available to Iran.
  • Israel’s western allies, including the UK, France, and Germany, continue to follow the Biden administration in urging Israel to respond cautiously. Speaking in the House of Commons yesterday, Prime Minister Sunak condemned an Iranian attack which “sought to plunge the Middle East into a new crisis… The scale of the attack,” he said, “and the fact that it was targeted directly at Israel are all without precedent.”
  • Sunak also urged Israel to show “restraint” in its response, a point echoed by Foreign Secretary Cameron, who told LBC that the UK was “saying Israel has a right to respond but we do not support a retaliatory strike. There are times where we have to be smart as well as tough, where we have to use head as well as heart.”
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant spoke again with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin yesterday. Austin “reiterated steadfast US support for Israel’s defence and reaffirmed the strategic goal of regional stability.” In calls to other European and Middle Eastern counterparts, Austin said that “while the United States does not seek escalation, we will continue to defend Israel and US personnel.”
  • The Chinese foreign minister and his Iranian counterpart also spoke, with official Chinese media reporting that Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told Wang Yi that Iran would “handle the situation well and spare the region further turmoil”.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Katz, meanwhile, has announced that he has written to 32 countries urging them to impose sanctions on Iran’s missile program and to declare the IRGC a terrorist organisation. Katz said on X (formerly Twitter) that he was “leading a political attack against Iran,” designed to “contain and weaken” it. Iran “must be stopped now — before it is too late.”

Context: Israel’s western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.

  • In weighing its response, therefore, Israel is forced to balance the need to maintain deterrence following an unprecedented Iranian attack consisting of over 300 missiles and UAVs, and protecting the emerging anti-Iranian Israeli-western-Arab alliance which was illustrated during the attack.
  • Israeli commentators are warning that a strong Israeli response could imperil this alliance, which was demonstrated for the first time on Saturday night and included Israel, the US, UK, France, and “moderate” Arab states including Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
  • Reports this morning claim that Israel has assured Arab allies, including Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf states, that its response would not implicate them. This follows Iranian threats that regional allies of Israel would pay a price for cooperation with an Israeli response.
  • Iran’s official media specifically mentioned that Jordan would be the next target in the event that it aided or joined Israel in responding to the Iranian attack.
  • Reports out of the US this morning also claim that Israel will likely focus its response not on Iran directly, but on its proxies – potentially Hezbollah and/or -based militias. Such a response would be calculated to provoke a less severe counter-response from Iran than a direct attack on Iranian soil would.
  • While Jordan took direct action in striking Iranian drones and missiles travelling over its airspace on Saturday night, Israeli reports claim that Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were all also in “close contact” with Israel during the attack.
  • Two days before the attack on Israel, Iranian officials briefed their counterparts in the Gulf countries on the structure and timing of the plan for the attack, to enable them to secure the airspace. Following US pressure, Saudi Arabia and Egypt subsequently shared intelligence about those plans.
  • According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to share information with the US and opened their airspace to fighter jets, shared radar surveillance information, and, in some cases, provided their own forces to help and intercept the attack.
  • However, pushing back on reports that Saudi Arabia had aided Israel, informed sources told Al Arabiya that Saudi Arabia did not participate in the interception of Iranian drones and missiles.
  • While Israel has enjoyed normalised relations with Egypt and Jordan for decades, this emerging alliance represents the bearing of fruit of the Abraham Accords process (which saw Israel normalise relations with Bahrain, Morocco, the UAE) and the progress made towards a similar agreement with Saudi Arabia.
  • All these regional states recognise that the threat from Iran is shared with Israel by them all.
  • Before the October attacks by Hamas, normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia was thought to be progressing. In late September 2023, Netanyahu and Biden discussed the issue when they met on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York. In an extensive English language interview to Fox News, released shortly after the Netanyahu-Biden meeting, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) confirmed that “every day we get closer” to a normalisation deal.
  • The 2020 Abraham Accords, as well as seeing Israel being moved from the European theatre to the US Central Command (CENTOM) in 2021, facilitated the ability of Israel and Arab states’ militaries to share intelligence and to cooperate with one another.
  • Summarising the new alliance, Ariel Kahana writes in Israel Hayom today that “a new bloc has broken out of its shell, has spread its wings and built its muscles: Israel, the West and Arab countries, together against Iran.”

Looking ahead: Israel has reportedly agreed with the US that any response will be coordinated with Washington. This follows disquiet from US officials over the fact that it was not notified in advance prior to the assassination of IRGC commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus two weeks ago.

April 12, 2024

Israel and allies brace for Iranian attack

What’s happened: Israel and its western allies continue to brace for an anticipated Iranian attack on Israel in response to the assassination of senior IRGC commander Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus last week.

  • The IDF and Mossad have approved plans for an attack on Iran in the event that Iran attacks Israel, with the IDF confirming it is “on alert and highly prepared for various scenarios”, as The Wall Street Journal quotes US officials warning that an attack, “possibly on Israeli soil”, could happen as soon as in the next 24-48 hours.
  • “We are ready for attack and defence using a variety of capabilities that the IDF has, and also ready with our strategic partners,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said yesterday.
  • Visiting an IAF base yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel has “set a simple principle: anyone who hits us, we will hit them. we are prepared to meet the State of Israel’s security needs in both defence and offence.”
  • Iran’s IRGC is said to have presented a number of attack options to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while unverified tweets from IRGC-associated X accounts have posted videos simulating strikes on the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev and on Haifa airport.
  • US CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla arrived in Israel yesterday. He will meet today with Israeli counterparts to discuss Israeli-US coordination in preparation for an Iranian attack.
  • Meanwhile, four of Israel’s principle western allies – the US, UK, France, and Germany – have warned Iran against launching an attack on Israeli territory. UK Foreign Secretary Cameron spoke with his Iranian counterpart, as did the German foreign minister.
  • “Today I made clear to Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian,” Cameron wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “that Iran must not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict. I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence. Iran should instead work to de-escalate and prevent further attacks.”
  • US Secretary of State Blinken, meanwhile, has spoken with Chinese, Turkish, Saudi and European counterparts, “to make clear that escalation is not in anyone’s interest and that countries should urge Iran not to escalate.”
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant spoke with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin last night – their second conversation in less than a week. Austin reiterated President Biden’s message in public comments made earlier this week – of  “ironclad US support for Israel’s defence in the face of growing threats from Iran and its regional proxies.”
  • Gallant’s office said he “emphasised that Israel will not accept an Iranian attack on Israeli territory… Gallant told Secretary Austin that he is committed to the security of the citizens of Israel, and therefore a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory will require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran.”
  • Israel’s diplomatic missions overseas remain on the highest state of alert, with some of them closed and their staff instructed to work from home. The US, meanwhile, has instructed staff at its Israeli embassy not to travel beyond the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Beersheba areas.
  • Israel’s Home Front Command, responsible for civilian defence, has made no changes to their instructions and guidelines. Despite this, many Israelis are stocking up on dry goods, bottled water, and even generators in some cases. As schoolchildren break up ahead of the Passover holiday, there have been numerous accounts of pupils being told to take their books home with them in case they need to move to remote learning after the holiday as a result of an Iranian escalation.

Context: The unified approach of Israel’s allies, and their reaffirmed commitment to Israel’s security in the face of the Iranian threat, indicates that recent disagreements over the conduct of Israel’s war in Gaza have not altered the calculus when it comes to Iran.

  • Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin all recognise that the Iranian threat is against western interests and values as well as Israel. As well as the deepening immediate strategic cooperation, Kurill’s visit is intended as a clear warning to Tehran that the US and Israel are in close coordination.
  • The western interest is also in preventing an Iranian response and the subsequent Israeli reaction from spiralling to an all-out regional war.
  • Iran is thought to have delivered a message to the US, conveyed by its Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian during a visit to Oman last weekend, that its response will seek to avoid dramatic escalation of this kind.
  • However, seasoned Israeli commentators are warning that the current crisis is likely to see the end of a nearly four-decade status quo, in which Israeli-Iranian hostilities are played out not in the direct exchange of fire but through Iran’s regional proxies.
  • This would represent a seismic paradigm shift in long-term Israel policy and in strategic thinking post-October 7th. Since hostilities with Hezbollah intensified, the Israeli approach has been to degrade the Iranian proxy’s aerial capability and its elite Radwan Force, generally in the border area, but to keep the conflict contained and short of all-out war. Similarly, Israel has not struck decisively at the Yemeni Houthis, despite the group (another Iranian proxy) having launched repeated attacks directed at Israeli soil and airspace.
  • On the specifics of an anticipated Iranian attack, Tehran has a range of options, though the likeliest scenario would see a multi-front attack using UAVs and cruise missiles, launched either from Iranian soil or via proxies in Yemen, Iraq, , and Lebanon.
  • Israeli reports indicate that Austin also complained to Gallant that the US was not given advanced warning of the attack which killed Zahedi. Israel has not official confirmed responsibility for the attack, though the IDF spokesperson did say that the building hit was not an embassy but “a military building of Quds forces disguised as a civilian building.”
  • A report on Israel’s Channel 12, meanwhile, has alleged that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar is delaying his formal response to the latest US-brokered hostage proposal in the hope of an Iranian attack on Israel.
  • Along with preparation for a direct Iranian threat, the northern border remains a likely site of escalation. New data from the Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot has revealed the scale of Hezbollah aggression post-October 7th. It has fired a total of 3,100 rockets and mortar shells at northern Israel since that day. By comparison, a total of 4,400 were fired during the entire Second Lebanon War. Some 240 “heavy bombs” have been fired, along with at least 700 anti-tank missiles, and at least 33 explosive UAVs, 55 sniper attempts, and seven attempts at infiltrating Israeli territory.
  • In responseIsrael has conducted 1,400 air strikes and 3,300 ground attacks, destroying hundreds of weapons stores and military installations. In terms of casualties, says Yediot Ahronot, 14 IDF soldiers and eight Israeli civilians have been killed. 280 Hezbollah fighters have been killed, along with 70 non-Hezbollah Palestinian fighters.

April 11, 2024

Israel and Indonesia to normalise relations?

Israel and Indonesia to normalise relations? 

What’s happened: According to reports, Israel is set to normalise relations with Indonesia.

  • The move is set to be part of Indonesia’s bid to join the intergovernmental Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with negotiations having taken place over the last three months.
  • According to revelations from Yediot Ahronot, OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann wrote to Indonesia two weeks ago indicating that its membership was contingent on it establishing diplomatic relations with all member states, including Israel, and that membership would need to be ratified by all member states, including Israel.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Katz has handled negotiations on the Israeli side, with the move to a successful conclusion indicating that the process has recovered from Jakarta’s public criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza and its support for South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Indonesia also filed its own case against Israel at the ICJ in January.

Context: Indonesia is the world’s largest Muslim state, by population, and a normalisation of relations with Israel would prove a significant breakthrough in the US vision of a Middle East and wider Muslim world at peace with the Jewish State.

  • It is thought that normalisation was close to fruition in the autumn of last year, before October 7th shifted the dynamic.
  • October 7th and the war in Gaza also interrupted progress towards normalisation with Saudi Arabia – just as they were intended to do by Iran and Hamas. Securing this normalisation with the leader of the Arab world was a key plank in the Biden Administration’s foreign policy agenda.
  • The Indonesian normalisation process was begun during the tenure of outgoing Indonesian President Joko Widodo, and is supported by President-Elect Prabowo Subianto, known to be a long-time advocate of normalisation.
  • A Memorandum of Understanding was apparently agreed in September 2023, indicating the two nations’ wish to advance and expand the process of the Abraham Accords, which saw the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalise relations with Israel.
  • Even prior to these breakthroughs, Israeli-Indonesian trade had long taken place quietly but regularly, mostly in the field of agri-tech and to the value of about $500 million per year.
  • A signal of the thaw in relations and the move to normalisation was provided on Tuesday, when Israel cooperated with an Indonesian aid airdrop into Gaza. Israel had previously refused to allow Turkey and Qatar – other states without normalised relations – to do so.

Developments in Gaza: The IDF yesterday killed three sons of Hamas Political Bureau Director Ismail Haniyeh in an airstrike in the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza. Four of the men’s children, three girls and a boy, were also killed in the attack.

  • The IDF said Amir, Muhammad, Hazem Haniyeh were “on their way to carry out a terror attack in the central Gaza Strip,” and were targeted in a real time operation (ie not as part of a pre-planned operation) and without the knowledge of either the prime or defence minister.
  • The IDF were explicit that the three had been targeted due to an imminent threat, and not due to their family connections. Amir was known to be a squad commander in Hamas’s military wing, while the army also said that at least one of the three had been involved in holding Israeli hostages kidnapped on October 7th.
  • Ismail Haniyeh responded publicly to the news. As well as “thank[ing] God for bestowing upon us the honour of their martyrdom,” he said that regardless of “the size of the sacrifice, Hamas won’t surrender,” and that anyone who thought such actions would pressure Hamas into accepting a hostage deal was “deceiving himself”.
  • The killing of Haniyeh’s sons came in the midst of US-brokered hostage release negotiations between Israel and Hamas, and as Israel awaits a formal Hamas response to the latest proposal. Preliminary public responses from Hamas officials indicate that the proposal will be rejected.
  • Due to the nature of real-time operations, they can be approved at the operational level, without consultation with either top military brass or the political echelon. The strike on the Haniyehs is thought to have been approved by an IDF colonel.
  • The presence of the three men in one of the northern-most corners of Gaza is a clear indication that despite IDF achievements in the north, the Hamas presence remains.
  • Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi expressed his “deep sorrow” to Haniyeh.

The Iranian threat: The US and Israel have intensified joint preparations for an anticipated Iranian response to the killing in Damascus last week of IRGC commander Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

  • Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said yesterday that “Israel must be punished, and they will pay for their mistakes.”
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant, on a visit to an Iron Dome unit, said “Whoever tries to attack us will be faced with strong defence and right after with strong response in his territory.”
  • The US and Israel are bracing for an Iranian response, either on “soft targets” like overseas embassies, or a direct attack on Israel using ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles.
  • Gallant’s comments are being interpreted as a sign that in response to any Iranian strike, Israel is likely to look to strike Iranian territory directly. The Israeli Air Force this week held an exercise in Cyprus, alongside Cypriot counterparts, simulating an attack on a long-range target.
  • The fear of serious regional escalation is acute, with tensions between Israel and Iran’s Hezbollah proxy on Israel’s northern border also at a high-point. Reports indicate that the US has prevailed on its regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iraq to convey messages to Iran urging it not to escalate.
  • In remarks made at a press conference in Washington yesterday alongside Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, President Biden said the US “commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again, ironclad. We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”
  • Confused reports emerged last night, as the Iranian Mehr news agency, which has ties to the regime, announced that all air traffic over Tehran was suspended due to “military drills”. The agency then quickly removed its post on X (formerly Twitter) and denied ever having posted it.

Looking ahead: Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), is set to arrive in Israel today to coordinate responses to any Iranian attack.

  • Hamas’s formal response to the latest hostage proposal remains outstanding.

April 10, 2024

Foreign Secretary Cameron: “Israel remains a vital defence partner”.

What’s happened: Foreign Secretary Cameron yesterday confirmed that the UK would not suspend arms sales to Israel.

  • Speaking at a joint press conference with US counterpart Anthony Blinken, Cameron reinforced that “Israel remains a vital defence and security partner to the UK. Our cooperation makes the more secure from external threats.”
  • “The latest assessment,” he said, referring to advice from government lawyers as to the international legality of continuing to supply weapons, “leaves our position on export licences unchanged. This is consistent with the advice that I and other ministers have received, and as ever we will keep the position under review.”
  • Cameron also said that “we continue to have grave concerns around the humanitarian access issue in Gaza… We’ve seen a welcome increase in trucks… the highest since Oct 7, and of course public commitments from Israel to flood Gaza with aid. These now need to be turned into reality.”
  • Cameron discussed both issues with Foreign Minister Katz yesterday, conveying to his Israeli counterpart the UK’s wish to see expanding the operating hours of the Kerem Shalom crossing, increasing the number of aid trucks entering Gaza daily to 500, providing protective equipment for humanitarian workers, opening the Erez crossing, establishing a humanitarian corridor from Jordan that can transport 100 trucks a day, and a de-escalation mechanism to ensure the safety of workers.
  • Cameron also reiterated the UK’s request that the Red Cross or British diplomats be allowed to visit detained Hamas Nukhba terrorist suspects and that Israel explain its strategy for distinguishing civilians from terrorists.
  • A UK Foreign Office paper published this week, meanwhile, called for “an immediate pause to get aid in and hostages out of Gaza, then progress towards a sustainable, permanent ceasefire, without a return to destruction, fighting and loss of life.”
  • At the UN General Assembly on Monday, the UK’s Ambassador to the UN Barbara Woodward reiterated that the UK has trebled its financial commitment to Palestinian aid this financial year, and welcoming the Israeli decision to open the Erez Crossing and the Port of Ashdod to ease the flow of aid.
  • Woodward also affirmed the UK’s view on the “need to focus on the vital elements for a lasting peace. These include the release of all hostages; the formation of a new Palestinian Government for the West Bank and Gaza accompanied by an international support package; removing Hamas’s capacity to launch attacks against Israel; Hamas no longer being in charge of Gaza; and a political horizon which provides a credible and irreversible pathway towards a two-state solution.”

Context: Following threats from Cameron and from some political quarters in the US to suspend military sales or to make them conditional, Israel’s position remains that such threats send a dangerous signal to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, as to the willingness of Israel’s allies to support the country at a time of multi-front existential war.

  • The escalating concerns of Israel’s western allies over the conduct of the war in Gaza, particularly over the question of and rising precipitously following the deaths of the World Central Kitchen workers, has brought the question into sharp focus in recent weeks.
  • In an article in the most recent edition of the Sunday Times, Cameron reaffirmed Israel’s right to self-defence. “Israel cannot be expected,” he wrote, “to live next to an organisation that carried out such brutal attacks and has declared that, if possible, it would do the same all over again.”
  • Alongside his calls for further aid, Cameron demanded “the immediate release of all hostages. That innocent people have been captured and held is a perpetual reminder of the monstrous organisation we are dealing with.”
  • Cameron’s Labour opposition counterpart David Lammy criticised the foreign secretary’s decision not to publish the government’s legal advice in full, accusing him of “hiding from scrutiny”.
  • In December 2023, less than three months into the war in Gaza, Cameron announced that he was “satisfied that there was good evidence to support a judgment that Israel is committed to comply[ing] with International Humanitarian Law” and decided to recommend not to suspend or revoke weapons export licences but to keep them under careful review.
  • He then first mooted suspending arms sales to Israel on March 21st, connecting the issue, rather surprisingly, with Red Cross access to Nukhba suspects.
  • His comments were attacked by his former colleague and fellow previous UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
  • UK arms imports represent a very small fraction of Israel’s total imported arms – less than 1 percent – and an even smaller proportion of Israel’s overall weapons arsenal.
  • Although the UK’s export licensing system makes overall figures difficult to quantify, data from the Campaign Against Arms Trade suggests that the UK exports nearly 25 times the value of arms to Saudi Arabia as it does to Israel.
  • In parallel, Israel is the UK’s third largest supplier of arms, and imported Israeli arms have protected UK service personnel in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and in other combat deployments.
  • The opening of the Erez Crossing and the Port of Ashdod have led to significant increases in the amount of aid entering the Gaza Strip.
  • According to COGAT, 468 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday, the highest total since the beginning of the war. This follows 419 on Monday and 322 on Sunday.

Looking ahead: Israel continues to await a Hamas response to the latest US proposal on a hostage release deal.

  • Any temporary ceasefire should be able to facilitate further increases in aid delivered to Gaza.

April 10, 2024

Waiting for Hamas: hostage deal in the balance

What’s happened: Mixed reports are emerging from Cairo about the prospects of an agreement on a hostage release/prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas.

  • An unnamed Israeli official told Channel 13 News yesterday that “we’ve held very significant talks in the past few hours. The United States has taken meaningful leadership and is applying heavy pressure on the mediators. The American proposal is far-reaching; it includes a very broad mandate. No one can say that the Israeli rope is short. All of the elements are in it—moving IDF troops and a return of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip.”
  • Yesterday, Defence Minister Gallant said, “We are ready to make difficult decisions in order to get the hostages back. I think that we are at a good point for a deal.”
  • Hamas officials, meanwhile, told international media that current proposals still fell well short of their minimum demands. Senior Hamas official Ali Baraka said: “We reject the latest Israeli proposals that the Egyptian side informed us of. The politburo met today and decided this.”
  • Another senior official, Mahmoud Mardawi, said the proposal “doesn’t address in any way our demands: a full withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, a ceasefire, an unconditional return of the displaced to the northern Gaza Strip and help in the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction.”
  • On a visit to Germany – a key Israeli ally – Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana offered hope for a deal but cautioned that “pitted against us is a cynical and cruel enemy that has already resorted in the past to lies and emotional manipulations. These moments of the negotiations are tense moments in which we need to have nerves of steel; [we need to] test the seriousness of [Hamas’s] intentions and to embrace and to strengthen the families.”
  • Visiting Washington, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid pledged his support for any hostage deal.
  • Yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu came under pressure from far-right elements in his coalition. Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir both complained that the wider security cabinet was being sidelined and crucial decisions on the flexibility given to Israeli negotiators and other aspects of the war taken only by the narrower war cabinet.
  • Smotrich first made his criticisms public in a letter made available to the media, before later meeting privately with Netanyahu. His demand that a security cabinet meeting be held was agreed to, with a meeting set for this evening.
  • Both Smotrich and Ben Gvir oppose any hostage proposals which limit Israeli freedom of operation in the Gaza Strip. Ben Gvir said yesterday that Netanyahu would have no mandate to continue as prime minister unless an operation in Rafah – home to Hamas’s remaining four battalions and thought to contain both its senior leadership and many of the surviving hostages – was authorised.
  • Smotrich, meanwhile, wrote: “For several weeks now, I have been warning that instead of taking our foot of the gas, we need to increase pressure on Hamas in Gaza and that this is the only way we will be able to get back the hostages and destroy Hamas.”
  • In response, Netanyahu said publicly that “we are constantly acting to achieve our objectives, first among them the release of all our hostages, and the attainment of total victory over Hamas. That victory mandates an entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there. That is going to happen; there is a date.”

Context: Israel’s military withdrawal yesterday can be interpreted as a tangible display of its flexibility and openness to a hostage deal. However, it has made clear that it retains the freedom to operate in Gaza if required, including a future operation in Rafah.

  • An important, and tragic, complicating element of a potential deal is Hamas’s ability to furnish Israel with 40 names of hostages meeting the criteria for the first phase of a release.
  • Under proposals, women, female soldiers, men over the age of 50, and men under the age of 50 with serious medical conditions are set to be freed. Reports suggest that Hamas has claimed it does not have 40 hostages still alive who meet these criteria.
  • Israel is thought to have responded that 40 remains the number to be released, and that if that is indeed the case, a single digit number of living hostages not meeting these criteria should be included. For each of these hostages, Israel would agree to a higher number of Palestinian prisoners being released from Israeli jails.
  • Israel is thought to be prepared to show significant flexibility on the return of northern Gazans to their former places of residence. Such a return would likely be phased and subject to demographic restrictions to ensure that Hamas and other terror organisations do not return.
  • Hamas’s previous model of collective decision-making amongst its most senior leadership is thought no longer to apply. Instead, the final decision on agreeing to or rejecting proposals is thought to rest solely with its Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar. Delays in reaching and then getting responses from Sinwar will likely mean Hamas’s response comes in the next days.
  • To Smotrich and Ben Gvir’s claims that the security cabinet is being sidelined, last November’s release of over 40 hostages was indeed first agreed by the war cabinet before then being put to the security cabinet.
  • Hamas’s demand that 900 Palestinian prisoners be released, including at least 100 serving life sentences for murder, is hugely contentious in Israel. Frequent reference is made to the 2011 exchange of over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for Gilad Shalit. Multiple released prisoners went on to take part in October 7th or other terrorist acts against Israel, chief among them the mastermind of the massacres, Sinwar.
  • The Israeli calculation remains that an operation in Rafah remains necessary for the full defeat of Hamas and is also the best way to exert pressure on Hamas to agree to hostage releases. The Israel withdrawal from Khan Yunis presents an opportunity for Gazan civilians to leave the Rafah area.
  • The withdrawal of forces from Gaza also allows the military to afford troops an opportunity for time away from the front and for maintenance work to be done on military equipment.
  • US National Security Spokesperson John Kirby said yesterday that “we do not support a major ground operation in Rafah and we have no indication that it will happen soon. The Israelis indicated to us that there would be no action in Rafah before we hold a meeting on the issue. We informed the Israelis that we are interested in the daily entry of 300-350 trucks into the Strip.”
  • COGAT has announced that 419 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday – the highest number of trucks to enter in a single day since the start of the war. The previous record high came the day before, with 322 entering.

Looking ahead: Negotiators now await a formal Hamas response to the latest proposals.

  • Following the pressure from right-wing coalition members, the security cabinet is due to meet this evening. It would likely be reconvened to approve a war cabinet decision if there is a breakthrough in hostage negotiations.
  • If these negotiations fail to produce a deal, Israel’s political echelon remains primed to authorise an operation in Rafah

April 8, 2024

Israel withdraws most of its troops from the Gaza Strip

What’s happened: Coinciding with the six month anniversary since the October 7th Hamas massacre, the IDF has pulled most of its forces out of the southern Gaza Strip.

  • A single IDF infantry brigade remains deployed along the east-west corridor, bisecting the Strip and preventing access to the north.
  • Defence Minister Gallant said, “The withdrawal of troops from Khan Younis was carried out once Hamas ceased to exist as a military framework in the city… The achievements made by the IDF’s Division 98 and its units, are extremely impressive. They have eliminated terrorists and destroyed terror targets including warehouses, weapons, headquarters, communication centres and more. Their activities enabled the dismantling of Hamas as a functioning military unit in this area.”
  • “Our forces are going to prepare for their follow-up missions. We saw examples of such missions in Shifa, and [will see] such missions in the Rafah area. We will reach a point when Hamas no longer controls the Gaza strip and does not function as a military framework that poses a threat to the citizens of the State of Israel.”
  • In parallel, the Iead Israeli negotiators, Mossad Director David Barnea, Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon are in Cairo for renewed negotiations to reach a deal for the release of some of the hostages.
  • It is understood that the war cabinet has expanded the mandate given to the negotiators.
  • Meanwhile, public pressure on the government continues, with large protests taking place over the weekend. On Sunday night, several thousand people gathered outside the Knesset (despite it being in recess) and called on the government to immediately reach a deal.

Context: At the height of the military operation there were 20 IDF brigades (around 35,000 troops) operating inside the Gaza Strip, now one remains (a few hundred).

  • The withdrawal of the 98th Division effectively ends the four month operation in the southern city of Khan Yunis.
  • However, forces are expected to re-enter and carry out targeted operations based on intelligence and operational needs.
  • According to the IDF, the decision was made having completed its bank of targets identified by their intelligence.
  • Others are speculating that it was due to US pressure and also partly meets Hamas’s demands and may be connected to the negotiations for a hostage release in Cairo. For more analysis of the withdrawal and its implications, see Israeli Media Summary below.
  • Prior to the withdrawal over the weekend, four IDF soldiers were killed in an ambush in the southern Gaza Strip when terrorists emerged from a tunnel shaft and shot the soldiers at close range. Three soldiers were killed instantly; the fourth was wounded and later died of his wounds. The terrorists disappeared back into the shaft, but the soldiers chasing them did not enter it because they identified IEDs that had been placed at the entrance.
  • 260 soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the ground operation, over 3,000 have been injured.
  • On Friday, the Commando Brigade retrieved the body of the one of the hostages, Elad Katzir, from the area of Khan Yunis. Elad was kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz by terrorists along with his mother, Hanna, who was released in November.
  • This leaves 133 hostages held in captivity, with the estimated fear that only half are still alive.
  • The basic formula for a deal presented during the talks is thought to include Hamas freeing about 40 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel and a limited return of Gazans to the north of the Strip. This would be alongside a temporary ceasefire, during which further talks would be held.
  • The IDF released updated data on that has entered into Gaza since the beginning of the war, which has included:
    • 272,000 tons of food
    • 44,190 tons of shelter equipment
    • 29,260 tons of water
    • 20, 310 tons of medical supplies
    • 23,090 tons of mixed equipment
    • 216 tanks of fuel, and 429 tanks of cooking gas.

Looking ahead: The redeployment will now facilitate Gazans who fled to Rafah to be able to return to Khan Yunis.

  • According to Israeli officials, an operation in Rafah is still on the agenda with the removal of the civilian population seen as a prerequisite of a ground incursion.
  • A Rafah operation is seen as essential for four reasons:
    • To engage, destroy, and dismantle the remaining four (out of 24) of the Hamas brigades, thereby removing the last bastions of Hamas military structure.
    • To block the smuggling routes from Egypt, which is crucial to preventing the re-armament of the Strip.
    • To continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership which, having evaded Israeli forces elsewhere, are now seemingly underneath Rafah.
    • To increase to the pressure on Hamas to soften their demands over the hostages negotiations. There is also a chance that the operation could allow for further rescue missions.
  • Due to the sensitivity, any major military operation into Rafah will likely need to be coordinated with the US and Egypt.
  • In parallel, there is cautious optimism that the negotiators for a hostage release and prisoner exchange will reach an agreement, with the Hamas delegation expected to return to Cairo with answers later this week.

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