What’s happened: Whilst cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah continues, both France and US are trying to reach a ceasefire agreement.

• French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne met with Israeli counterparts this week, after first visiting Lebanon where he met with figures close to Hezbollah. He said, “I call on Israeli authorities to take a public position on these French plans that will enable us to move to the next stage.”
• According to the Hezbollah affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, the first stage of the French proposal demands Hezbollah withdrawal its forces 10 km north of the border and remove their outposts close to the border.
• In the second phase, the Lebanese Armed Forces will be deployed along the border and Israel will stop flying over Lebanese airspace. In the third stage, the parties will discuss demarcating the land border between them.
• In parallel, US envoy Amos Hochstein, who brokered the Israel-Lebanon Maritime agreement of 2022, met with Israeli Defence Minister Gallant last week, while Israel’s Kan Radio reported yesterday that Israel has shown a willingness to discuss revisions to the border with Lebanon as part of a US framework.
• On the ground, Hezbollah continued to attack and Israel respond. Yesterday four rockets were launched towards Mount Dov from Lebanon, three were intercepted, and one landed in an open area. Israel returned fire to the source.
• According to Syrian sources, Israel attacked a military site in the Damascus area from the air last night. The Syrian army reported eight injured and damage caused to a Syria intelligence base.
• Earlier this week, Samir Geagea, leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces Party, criticised Hezbollah for inflaming tensions with Israel and called on its forces to withdraw from border areas.

Context: Since October 8th, Hezbollah has maintained a threshold of violence at a level it deems will divert resources away from Gaza to the northern front, but stopping short of necessitating an immediate Israeli ground offensive.

• In that time Hezbollah has attacked Israeli military bases and civilian communities close to the Lebanese border on a near daily basis, launching over 3,300 drone, rockets, and anti-tank guided missile (ATGMs) strikes. Nine Israeli civilians, and eleven soldiers have been killed with approximately 80,000 civilians internally displaced and forced to relocate to hotels in safer parts of the country. While Israel has carried out a similar number of counter-strikes against Hezbollah targets.
• Hezbollah has sought to maintain a series of observation posts keeping northern Israeli communities and military basis under permanent surveillance. ATGMs are regularly fired at civilian workers, vehicles, and homes as well as military targets.
• Israel’s response to these attacks has been a combination of air and artillery strikes into Lebanon targeting Hezbollah’s military leadership and infrastructure. While primarily destroying targets in the south of the country, some Israeli airstrikes have been reported as far north as Baalbeck and the Beqaa Valley. According to recent figures, 290 Hezbollah operatives and around 40 fighters affiliated with Palestinian terror organisations have been killed by Israeli airstrikes along with one Lebanese soldier and at least 60 civilians.
• Israel’s Defence Minister recently claimed that the IDF had killed half of Hezbollah’s local commanders in southern Lebanon, and that the rest have been forced into hiding. While disputed by Hezbollah, this claim underlines Israel’s approach to dismantling their  military capabilities.
• Israeli statements indicate that Hezbollah’s special forces, drone, rocket, and anti-tank missile commanders have been prioritised in targeted killings. Hezbollah rarely confirms the role or seniority of those killed in Israeli strikes, instead generally referring to them as martyred fighters without indicating their rank or position.
• While Hezbollah honoured the week long truce between Israel and Hamas in November without being party to negotiations, the group maintains that it will not engage in concrete discussions until a ceasefire has been reached in Gaza.
• Israel views its current paradigm of 80,000 citizens being internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s aggression as untenable and intolerable, and the longer they remain unable to safely return to their homes, the higher the risk of a military escalation in southern Lebanon.
• It remains uncertain when or if a ground offensive against Hezbollah would be launched, but the most anticipated scenario suggests that once Israel completes their campaign in Gaza, the focus will switch to the north.
• Israel continues to insist on the robust implementation of UN Resolution 1701 passed at the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Most significantly it stipulates Hezbollah forces, be pushed back as far as the Litani River ensuring Israeli civilian are out of range of Hezbollah’s accurate Kornet anti-tank missiles.
• Any move away from the border on the part of Hezbollah fighters will need to be monitored and sustainable, since Hezbollah has a track record of initially complying with such deconfliction steps, before then moving its fighters back closer to the border.

Looking ahead: While around 80,000 Israelis remain indefinitely displaced from their homes in the north, the IDF continues to warn of the need of a ground incursion into southern Lebanon to restore deterrence and security to Israel’s northern border.

• On Wednesday IDF Chief of Staff Halevi told troops, “we are preparing for an offensive in the north.”
• If Israel reach another temporary ceasefire with Hamas, it remains to be seen if Hezbollah, although not party to the arrangement will also hold their fire

What’s happened: For the first time, Israel has opened the Erez Crossing to the northern Gaza Strip to allow in aid.

• Colonel Moshe Tetro, head of Israel’s Coordination and Liaison Administration for Gaza has said he hopes the crossing will be open every day and reach a target of 500 aid trucks entering the coastal enclave every day. This would be in line with pre-war supplies, and represent a significant increase in aid entry during the past seven months.
• On the first day it was opened, 30 trucks carrying food and medical supplies from Jordan were able to enter the Gaza Strip.
• Meanwhile, Israeli negotiators remain are on standby to return to Cairo for a continuation of talks but await a Hamas answer.
• There is concern that as of last night, Hamas appears poised to reject the latest proposal.
• The group’s Lebanon-based official Osama Hamdan told local media that “Our position on the current negotiating paper is negative.” He added that “the negative position does not mean negotiations have stopped. There is a back-and-forth issue.”
• Hamas’s opposition to the current deal ostensibly stems from it wanting iron-clad guarantees up front that Israel would end the war. Further details of the current proposal were floated yesterday by Lebanese media and indicate that negotiations for a full ceasefire would instead be conducted during the second stage of a three stage ceasefire.
• US Secretary of State Blinken met with Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday. Netanyahu said “If Hamas doesn’t accept the new proposal that is on the table, there won’t be a deal and Israel will begin an operation in Rafah. We won’t agree to a deal that includes an end to the war.”
• Israel had “already been very forthcoming.” Netanyahu said, and  “is prepared to wait with [a military operation in] Rafah, but not to cancel it entirely.”
• Blinken, who has recently praised the generosity of Israel’s ceasefire proposal, reiterated US opposition to an operation in Rafah.
• He later told hostage families: “Bringing your loved ones home is at the heart of everything we’re trying to do, and we will not rest until everyone—man, woman, soldier, civilian, young, old—is back home.”

Context: Historically, the Erez crossing has facilitated the egress and ingress of people rather than supplies into the Gaza Strip. Its repurposing to allow aid into the coastal enclave has been a longstanding request of the international community who are particularly concerned by the humanitarian situation in its northern sector where it is believed to be most severe.

• If Israel begins its anticipated assault on Rafah, it is almost certain that humanitarian demands in the northern Gaza Strip will significantly increase given the inflow of evacuees from the south. Together, the reopened Erez crossing and US-built floating pier which is approximately 50 percent complete will allow for more comprehensive aid delivery in the northern Gaza Strip.
• While Netanyahu’s remarks suggest Israel is determined to launch an operation in Rafah whether or not a hostage deal is reached, the two elements are intimately connected.
• According to the Lebanese report, the first, 40-day, stage would see a temporary ceasefire implemented, and the IDF withdrawing east of the densely-crowded parts of the Gaza Strip.
  • Aerial surveillance flights over the Gaza Strip will stop for eight hours a day, and for ten hours on the days when hostages are released.
  • Hamas would  release at least 33 living hostages, among them women and children (aged under 19), elderly (over 50), ailing and injured.
  • Israel would release 20 Palestinian prisoners aged under 19 and female prisoners for every hostage, based on a list drawn up by Hamas.
  • After 16 days, international organisations and the UN will start providing humanitarian services in all of the Gaza Strip and start repairing infrastructure throughout the Gaza Strip.

• The second stage would last 42 days and would see arrangements for restoring “sustainable calm” in the Strip implemented before the release of further (living male) hostages and Palestinian security prisoners.
• In the third stage, also lasting 42 days, the bodies of dead hostages would be released in exchange for the bodies of dead Palestinians. A five-year reconstruction program for the Gaza Strip will also be launched.
• 133 hostages are still being held captive in the Gaza Strip. It is unclear how many remain alive.
• An operation in Rafah has been postponed at least twice already due to international pressure from Israel’s allies, but if Hamas does not take the current deal an operation appears inevitable.
• This time, Israel has helped facilitate expanded humanitarian zones with tens of thousands of tents in preparation to move the civilian population from Rafah prior to a military incursion.
• According to COGAT, on April 30, aid entering Gaza included:
  • “351 aid trucks were inspected and transferred to the Gaza Strip,” and “166 trucks were distributed within Gaza, 63 of which contained food.”
  • “107 food aid trucks were coordinated to northern Gaza.”
  • 32 trucks of flour enabled 26 bakeries to provide close to 5 million breads, rolls, and pita breads daily.
• The logic for a Rafah operation remains:
  • To engage, destroy, and dismantle the remaining elements of Hamas’s military structure.
  • To block the smuggling routes from Egypt, which is crucial to preventing the re-armament of the Strip.
  • To continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership which, having evaded Israeli forces elsewhere, are now seemingly underneath Rafah.
  • If Hamas refuses the latest deal, the dwindling hope remains that some hostages could still be rescued.

• Netanyahu is also facing increasing domestic political pressure with both the right wing and centrist flanks, pulling him in opposite directions and threatening to dismantle his coalition.
• In addition to political pressure, there have been ongoing public demonstrations from the hostages families and their supporters to conclude a deal.
• There have also been right-wing protesters attempting to block aid entering Gaza, arguing that the aid should be conditional to the release of the hostages.

Looking ahead: Israel is still waiting for Hamas’s counter-proposal.

• The UK continues to support humanitarian distribution efforts for the Gaza Strip. The Royal Fleet Auxiliary is expected to deploy one of its landing ships to the Eastern Mediterranean to provide accommodation for hundreds of US sailors and soldiers working to establish the aid delivery pier, while the UK Hydrographic Office is also sharing analysis of the Gazan shore with US planners to develop the pier.

What’s happened: Hamas has released a new video of American-Israeli Hersh Goldberg-Polin, held hostage in the Gaza Strip since October 7^th.

• The 23-year-old, kidnapped from the Nova music festival, appears in the video missing his lower left arm. He is known to have sustained injuries when one of the October 7^th terrorists threw a grenade into an area in which he and others were sheltering.
• In the video, he says that he has been held nearly 200 days, indicating that it was made recently.
• Goldberg-Polin’s mother Rachel, urging leaders to negotiate a hostage deal, said “Hersh, if you can hear this, we heard your voice today for the first time in 201 days and, if you can hear us, I am telling you—we are telling you—we love you, stay strong, survive.”
• IDF Spokesperson Hagari said “this psychological terror video is not only a reminder of what Hamas did on October 7th, it is a reminder of how sick this terror group is, terrorising the hostages and their families too.”
• “Until Hamas releases our hostages,” he added, “the IDF will continue to pursue Hamas everywhere in Gaza. We will leave no stone unturned in our efforts to find our hostages.”
• The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement that “Hersh’s cry is the collective cry of all the hostages – their time is rapidly running out. We cannot afford to waste any more time; the hostages must be the top priority. All the hostages must be brought home — those alive to begin the process of rehabilitation, and those murdered for a dignified burial.”
• Meanwhile, preparations for an anticipated operation in the southern Gazan city of Rafah are intensifying. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office said yesterday the operation was “moving ahead”, though gave no timeline, while IDF Chief of Staff Halevi and Shin Bet Director Bar were in Cairo yesterday for meetings with their Egyptian counterparts.
• The IDF has mobilised two reserve brigades for what it calls “defensive and tactical missions in the Gaza Strip.” “The brigades, which have so far operated along the northern border,” said the IDF, “have prepared in recent weeks for operations in the Gaza Strip.” Both are expected to be deployed to the central Gaza Strip, freeing units currently serving there for operations in Rafah.
• The IDF has also continued intensive operations in the northern and central Strip this week.
• In the north, Sgt. First Class (res.) Salm Alkreshat was killed in an operation in Beit Hanoun on Monday, while on Tuesday, four rockets were fired from northern Gaza at the Israeli city of Sderot, in an attack claimed by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
• Over the last day, two terrorists in central Gaza were killed attempting to launch rockets at Israel in one of more than 50 sites targeted by Israeli strikes over the past day. Another strike in Gaza City’s killed a group of Hamas operatives which had opened fire at troops in central Gaza, while a further strike in central Gaza’s Nuseirat killed a Hamas sniper cell. Yesterday, the IDF also struck Hamas launchers located in a humanitarian zone in southern Gaza.

Context: The video of Goldberg-Polin is the first proof of life of a hostage in several months, and is thought to have been made ostensibly as a gesture from Hamas to Qatar, which has brokered hostage release negotiations and has been pressured by the US to facilitate proofs of life, especially for US citizens like Goldberg-Polin.

• The video was sent first to the Israeli and US governments, via Qatar, before then being made public.
• It also functions as a cruel use of psychological warfare. Yediot Ahronot quotes an unnamed Israeli official as saying about the video: “Its purpose is to create domestic pressure in Israel. The messages in the video are directed at Netanyahu and the government. Hamas’s strategy is to sow internal chaos and, if possible, to bring about the government’s dissolution.”
• Hersh’s injury was known soon after the event, when footage of the Nova massacre emerged.
• Hamas kidnapped 253 hostages on October 7^th. It is thought that 133 remain in Gaza, not all of them still alive, with the IDF having confirmed the deaths of 34.
• Halevi and Bar’s meeting with Egyptian counterparts signals Israeli coordination of a likely operation in Rafah with its allies.
• Such an operation can only be conducted following a massive evacuation of over a million civilians, the bulk of whom have fled to the city from other areas of the Strip to escape the fighting.
• Temporary shelters have been set up in other parts of the Strip, at the initiative of Egypt and the UAE and in consultation with Israel.
• UK media yesterday reported satellite images showing five field hospitals and a new “tent city” near Khan Yunis, also in the southern Strip. Israeli media is quoting government sources saying that the Defence Ministry has bought 40,000 tents, each with the capacity to shelter 10 to 12 people.
• Hamas has itself begun to prepare for an incursion into its last stronghold, home to four of its remaining (previously 24) battalions. It has resupplied its fighters there with arms and supplies and has also reportedly increased the number of fighters guarding hostages located in the city.
• Israeli liaison with Egypt is especially significant, given Cairo’s public opposition to an operation it fears could cause thousands of Gazans fleeing Rafah to breach the Gaza-Egypt border.
• The intensification of IDF operations in northern and central Gaza – areas from which Israel largely withdrew several months ago – indicates that the operational presence of Hamas and other terror groups remains there.

Looking ahead: Both the war cabinet and the wider security cabinet are set to meet today to discuss the potential operation, as well as the state of hostage deal talks.

• The Rafah evacuation process could take a further three to four weeks.

What’s happened: On Saturday, the US House of Representatives passed a bill including $17 billion (£13.75 billion) in military aid to Israel. Some $9 billion is also set to be allocated to humanitarian relief in Gaza and other conflict zones.

• $5.2 billion will go toward replenishing and expanding Israel’s missile and rocket defence systems; $3.5 billion to purchasing advanced weapons systems; $1 billion to enhancing weapons production; $4.4 billion for other defence supplies and services; and some $2.4 billion to US operations in the region amid the Gaza war.
• The aid package, which also included $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, had become a hugely divisive political issue in the US, with House Republicans split, many siding against Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson in opposing the bill. In the event, the bill passed 311 to 112, with 101 Republicans voting against.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said the bill “demonstrates strong bipartisan support for Israel and defends Western civilisation. Thank you friends, thank you America!”
• Elsewhere, in an unprecedented move, the US is set to impose sanctions on the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda unit, citing alleged human rights violations against Palestinians in the West Bank. The sanctions will see US military aid blocked from being used to fund Netzah Yehuda.
• Responding on X (formerly Twitter), Netanyahu said “sanctions must not be imposed on the Israel Defence Force… at a time our soldiers are fighting the terrorist monster, the intention of imposing sanctions on an IDF unit is the height of absurdity and a moral low point.”
• National Unity Party Chairman and war cabinet Minister Gantz wrote, “the Netzah Yehuda battalion is an inseparable part of the IDF. It is subject to military law and is responsible for operating in full compliance with international law. The State of Israel has a strong, independent judicial system that evaluates meticulously any claim of a violation or deviation from IDF orders and code of conduct, and will continue to do so.”
• “I have great appreciation for our American friends, but the decision to impose sanctions on an IDF unit and its soldiers sets a dangerous precedent and conveys the wrong message to our shared enemies during war time. I intend on acting to have this decision changed.”
• Opposition leader Lapid said the move was “a mistake,” but that “the source of the problem is not at the military level but at the political level.”

Context: The announcements on aid and sanctions come as more details emerge regarding Israel’s attack on an Iranian air base in Isfahan last week, in retaliation for Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel of April 13^th.

• Israel faced a dilemma on how best to respond to the attack, which included a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles and weaponised UAVs. Its response needed to be strong even to restore deterrence but not so strong as to provoke further Iranian aggression and jeapordise international support.
• A single missile was therefore fired from an Israeli F-15, deployed at an Iranian Air Force base, while included deployment of a Russian S-300 battery which protected the nuclear facility in Natanz.
• The targeted strike sent a clear message to Iran that while its own attack on Israel consisted of over 300 projectiles which caused minimal damage, Israel was able to penetrate Iranian defences and reach a nuclear site area with just one missile.
• Israel not publicly claiming the attack also gave Iran room to “plausibly deny” that the attack took place, thus minimising the risk of an Iranian counter-response.
• Having successfully navigated the issue, there is a hope that Israel and the US can advance their coordination over a potential incursion into Rafah.
• Israel maintains that the achievement of its war aims requires an operation in Hamas’s last Gazan stronghold – home to its remaining four battalions. The US has opposed the operation, citing the severe humanitarian situation in the Strip and the fate of over a million Gazan refugees sheltering in the city.
• Heeding US calls for a non-escalatory response to Iran might well give Israel diplomatic currency to consider an operation in Gaza in coordination with Washington.
• The Netzah Yehuda unit is comprised largely of ultra-Orthodox recruits and has faced scrutiny for a number of incidents involving Palestinians. In December 2022, it was moved out of the West Bank and onto the Syrian border. It is currently fighting on the Gazan front.
• The apparent US sanctions will follow similar measures taken in recent months, and imposed by the UK as well, targeting those identified as violent West Bank settlers.
• This comes amid a recent increase in violence. This morning, three were lightly injured in a car-ramming attacks in Jerusalem.
• Yesterday, three West Bank Palestinians died after what the IDF said were attacks against Israeli soldiers, while over the weekend the IDF continued a counter terror operation in the Tulkarem area. 13 out of 14 Palestinians killed were identified as jihadist fighters and nine Israeli troops injured.
• High tensions remains in the West Bank following the killing and abduction of an Israeli 14-year-old, which precipitated retaliatory attacks by some settlers in the area. Following a manhunt, a suspect was arrested this morning.

Looking ahead: The US aid package will now move to the Senate this week, with lawmakers expected to vote in favour.

• Tonight marks the beginning of Passover, as well as the milestone of 200 days in captivity for the remaining 133 Israeli hostages in Gaza.
• Reports suggest that US pressure on Qatar may lead to Hamas’s external leadership seeking relocation. Adding fuel to these rumours, senior Hamas leaders Ismail Haniya and Khaled Mashal met with Turkish Erdogan on Saturday.

What’s happened: International media reports this morning claim that Israel has attacked an Iranian air force base near the city of Isfahan.

• Some of the reports claim that the attack was launched using missiles, and that the Isfahan site had been used to launch the UAVs used by Iran to attack Israel last Saturday night.
• Israel has offered no official comments, while official Iranian media claims that Iranian air defence systems had intercepted a number of UAVs and denies that there has been a strike on Isfahan. The New York Times, however, cites three Iranian sources confirming that the military base had been struck.
• A US administration official told CNN that Washington had received prior notification of the Israeli attack on Iran. He said that the administration had not expressed an opinion. This is interpreted in Israel as the US neither approving nor trying to prevent such a strike.
• Meanwhile, the US and UK yesterday announced fresh sanctions against Iran, targeting its UAV and ballistic missile industries.
• Announcing the UK’s sanctions at the G7 summit in Capri, UK Foreign Secretary Cameron said “at a time of great tension in the Middle East, Iran’s decision to launch hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel carried with it a serious risk of thousands of civilian casualties and wider escalation for the region. The sanctions announced today alongside the US demonstrate our unequivocal condemnation of Iran’s attack on a sovereign state.”
• The US Treasury Department added 16 individuals and two entities to its sanctions list, while the UK announced it was sanctioning a further 7 individuals and 6 entities “who have enabled Iran to conduct destabilising regional activity, including its direct attack on Israel.”
• According to the government, the new sanctions target:
  • Armed Forces General Staff: directs and coordinates Iran’s armed forces.
  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy: 1 of Iran’s 2 naval forces.
  • The Khatemolanbia Central Headquarters (KCHQ): responsible for operational command and control of Iran’s armed forces.
  • Major General Gholamali Rashid, Commander KCHQ: responsible for operational command and control of Iran’s armed forces, reports directly to the Supreme Leader.
  • Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, Minister of Defence Armed Forces Logistics: Iran’s Defence Minister, responsible for supporting and equipping the Iranian armed forces.
  • Seid Mir Ahmad Nooshin, Aerospace Industries Organisation (AIO) Director and 4 further individuals related to AIO.

Context: For the past week, Israel has insisted it would respond strongly to Iran’s attack, which included over 300 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones – the first time ever that Iran had attacked Israel directly.

• Some 99 percent of the projectiles were thwarted thanks to Israel’s missile defence systems, along with the active support of the US, UK, France, and Jordan. Cooperation from other regional states, including Saudi Arabia, has been widely claimed but not officially confirmed.
• In the week following, Israel’s allies have repeatedly implored Jerusalem to show restraint in its response, to lower the risk of the escalation spilling over into an all-out regional war.
• An attack of the type being reported in Isfahan would likely meet this criteria, allowing Iran “plausible deniability” and minimising, though not precluding, the likelihood of an Iranian counter-strike.
• It would present a clear message to Iran that Israel can breach its defences and potentially reach its nuclear weapons programme sites.
• A key post-October 7^th security priority for Israel has been reaffirming its deterrent capacity. In Gaza; in the north, where Hezbollah has launched daily barrages against Israeli communities; and in the wider context of the whole Iranian “Axis of Resistance”, the need has been to reestablish that attacks on Israel have serious consequences.
• In responding to Iran’s attack, Israel’s dilemma has been to balance demonstrating this deterrent capacity with not alienating the unprecedented coalition which emerged in thwarting the Iranian attack last Saturday: Israel, the US, UK, other European allies, and pragmatic Arab Sunni states also threatened by Iran.
• In attacking Israel directly, Iran altered the ‘rules of the game’ of its conflict with Israel and shifted from its traditional strategy of attacking through its proxy network.
• Thus, while US reports earlier in the week suggested that Israel might respond to Iran through attacks on its proxies, a limited attack on Iranian soil might achieve this balance, while not ignoring the new paradigm initiated by Iran.
• As well as its other military bases, Isfahan is known to house sites devoted to Iran’s nuclear programme, including the underground Natanz enrichment site. CNN quotes Israeli officials confirming that the nuclear programme was not the target of any Israeli strike.
• Yesterday, Ahmad Haghtalab, the IRGC commander in charge of nuclear security, threatened that any attack on Iran’s nuclear programme would be met with a counter-strike on Israel’s own nuclear sites.
• The Isfahan air base is known to host some of Iran’s US-made F-14 Tomcats, which date back to the period before the 1979 revolution.
• The UK has increased sanctions against Iran several times since October 7^th – its total number of sanctioned entities now tops 400 – though continues to stop short of designating the IRGC a terrorist organisation. 154 new sanctions designations were made in 2023.
• Fresh legislation, “Iran (Sanctions) Regulations 2023”, was introduced in December 2023.

Looking ahead: In parallel to calibrating the nature and scale of its response to Iran, in Gaza, the Israeli assessment remains that achieving its war objectives requires an operation in the southern city of Rafah, home to Hamas’s four remaining battalions and over a million refugees

What’s happened: 18 people were wounded, including 13 reservists, after Hezbollah launched anti-tank missiles and drones toward the Israeli village of Arab al-Aramshe yesterday.

• One IDF reservist is in critical condition and four others seriously wounded.
• The drone was an Iranian-made Ababeel-2T drone, which is capable of providing a real-time video feed to its operator and can carry a payload of more than 40 kilograms of explosives.
• The army is investigating why the launches were not intercepted.
• In response, Israeli fighter jets attacked the launch pads as well as a military structure where Hezbollah members were residing in the southern Lebanese village of Ayta ash Shab. Israel also carried out an airstrike against a site belonging to Hezbollah’s air defence unit in northeast Lebanon’s Baalbek, almost 60 miles from the border.
• This morning, Israeli fighter jets attacked military buildings and other Hezbollah infrastructure in the area of Khiam, southern Lebanon. IDF aircraft also fired at two Hezbollah operatives in the area of the village of Kafr Kila. Both the IDF and Hezbollah report the deaths of two Hezbollah operatives in the latter strike.
• Rocket sirens were activated in several communities along the Israel-Lebanon border, including Kfar Yuval, Kfar Giladi and Metula.
• Yesterday’s attacks follow further escalation on Tuesday, when four Golani Brigade soldiers were wounded in a cross-border operation, amid the firing of dozens of rockets at IDF bases, including the Mt. Meron base and a second base that, according to Hizbullah, houses an Iron Dome battery.
• Two Hezbollah armed drones also infiltrated Israeli airspace from Lebanon and exploded near Beit Hillel, slightly wounding three Israelis.
• Two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were also killed in Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon: Ismail Yousef Baz, the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal district, killed in a strike on a car near Tyre; and Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shehoury
• In other news, fallout continues from Iran’s attack against Israel on April 13^th.
• Following UK and German Foreign Ministers Cameron and Baerbock’s visit to Israel yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu told a cabinet meeting that the two gave “all kinds of suggestions and advice”. Netanyahu said that Israel appreciated it, but that Israelis would “make our own decisions, and… do everything necessary to defend itself.”
• While in Israel, Cameron told reporters that while Israel had the right to respond to Iran, the UK hoped it would do so “in a way that is smart as well as tough and also does as little as possible to escalate this conflict.”
• “The real need,” Cameron added, “is to refocus back on Hamas, back on the hostages, back on getting the aid in, back on getting a pause in the conflict in Gaza,”
• In slightly stronger remarks, having first suggested the Europe would act so that “Iran and its proxies such as Hezbollah or the Houthis must not be allowed to add fuel to the fire,” Baerbock said that “everyone must now act prudently and responsibly.”
• “I’m not talking about giving in,” she added. “I’m talking about prudent restraint, which is nothing less than strength. Because Israel has already shown strength with its defensive victory at the weekend.”

Context: Israel’s strike in Baalbeck, where Hezbollah’s Aerial Defence Array is located, is the sixth time Israel has struck Hezbollah positions in the area since 7 October. (For a detailed analysis of recent escalation in the north, see BICOM’s recent paper ‘Challenging the Iranian presence in the north’.)

• Although not responding as Hamas desired in its call for full-scale assault from all members of the “Axis of Resistance” on October 7th, Hezbollah has proceeded with multi-site daily rocket attacks on northern Israel. Analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies claims there have been 4,400 “violent incidents” in the border area since October 8th. This includes, according to the IDF, over 2,800 missiles which have been fired at northern Israel from southern Lebanon and Syria.
• In comparison with previous rounds of fighting with Israel, Hezbollah is increasingly deploying more sophisticated weaponry, including Iranian-produced Almas anti-tank guided missiles with a 10-kilometre range and the shorter range Burkan with its heavy payload. Iranian-produced Hezbollah UAVs have also been used in at least 40 attacks on Israel since October 7th, some fatal.
• Seven Israeli civilians and 12 soldiers have been killed and around 300 fighters on the Lebanese side of the border (mostly Hezbollah, along with some Palestinian militants who operate with its approval). Meanwhile, 80,000 northern Israelis from 28 border communities remain displaced, along with a similar number of southern Lebanese.
• US and French attempts at brokering a sustainable ceasefire on the northern border have so far failed to produce results. In mid-February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel.
• European Union leaders decided yesterday to step up sanctions against Iran. “The European Union will take further restrictive measures against Iran, notably in relation to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missiles,” leaders said in a joint statement.
• An Egyptian source told London-based Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the US agreed to the Israeli plan for a military operation in Rafah in exchange for a limited response against Iran.

Looking ahead: Israel continues to calibrate the nature of its response to the Iranian attacks.

• Its western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.
• Three Israeli sources told ABC News that Israel prepared for and then aborted retaliatory strikes on at least two nights this week. According to the report, the war cabinet was presented with several different options, including attacking Iranian proxies not on Iranian soil, or a potential cyberattack.
• Israel’s Kan public broadcaster reported that the cabinet had already approved a series of possible responses depending on the scope of the Iranian attack, which were slated to be carried out immediately following the Iranian attack but were shelved after PM Netanyahu spoke to President Biden

What’s happened: As Israel continues to weigh the nature of its response to Iran’s unprecedented attack on Saturday night, significant operations were conducted yesterday in both the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon.

Iran: Israel’s western allies continue to urge a restrained response. Prime Minister Sunak yesterday told Prime Minister Netanyahu in a phone call that “further significant escalation will only deepen instability in the region. This is a moment for calm heads to prevail.”

• Foreign Secretary Cameron arrived in Israel today for talks with senior Israeli officials on Israel’s response to the Iranian attack. Speaking to reporters, Cameron said “It’s clear the Israelis are making a decision to act. We hope they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible.”
• Earlier, alongside German Foreign Minister Baerbock, Cameron met with Israeli President Herzog this morning. Herzog thanked the two for “the UK and Germany’s strong stand alongside Israel in the face of the reprehensible attack by Iran. The whole world must work decisively and defiantly against the threat posed by the Iranian regime which is seeking to undermine the stability of the whole region.”
• US Secretary of State Blinken, meanwhile, spoke with Minister Benny Gantz and with the Qatari prime minister. The State Department said that the US did wish to see further escalation.
• US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, yesterday announced fresh US sanctions on Iran. “In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran,” he said, “including its missile and drone program” as well as the IRGC and the defence ministry. “These new sanctions and other measures will continue a steady drumbeat of pressure to contain and degrade Iran’s military capacity and effectiveness and confront the full range of its problematic behaviours… We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions.”
• The US Treasury Department is said to be seeking to enlist international cooperation in limiting Iran’s export of oil and its access to the microelectronics it needs to produce the kind of drones with which it attacked Israel on Saturday.
• Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, meanwhile, yesterday threatened Israel with a “painful response” if it takes the “slightest action” in retaliation. In a call with Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Raisi said “we firmly declare that the slightest action against Iran’s interests will definitely be met with a severe, extensive and painful response.”

In Gaza: More than 40 targets were struck by the Israeli Air Force, including in central Gaza on rocket launchers primed and ready for attacks on Israel.

• Multiple Palestinian gunmen were killed in clashes on the outskirts of the Nuseirat camp, while an airstrike was carried out against a cell operating an armed drone.
• The IDF says other targets hit included underground rocket launch positions, booby-trapped buildings, structures where operatives were gathered, observation posts, underground sites, and other infrastructure.
• Israeli ground forces, meanwhile, have in the past few days returned to parts of northern Gaza from which they had previously withdrawn. Operations in the town of Beit Hanoun are ongoing.
• Israel media reports today claim that the IDF has begun to raise troop readiness ahead of a large-scale operation in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, and in the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip.

In the north: According to Israeli media, two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were killed yesterday in air strikes in southern Lebanon.

• They were named as Ismail Yousef Baz, the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal district, killed in a strike on a car near Tyre; and Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shehoury, the commander of one of the Radwan Force’s rocket and missile units.
• The IDF said Baz “was involved in advancing and planning rocket and anti-tank missile fire at the State of Israel from the area of the coast in Lebanon, and during the war he organized and planned a range of terror attacks against Israel.”

Context: Israel’s western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.

• In weighing its response, therefore, Israel is forced to balance the need to maintain deterrence following an unprecedented Iranian attack consisting of over 300 missiles and UAVs, and protecting the emerging anti-Iranian Israeli-western-Arab alliance which was illustrated during the attack. (For further analysis see yesterday’s BICOM briefing and Israeli Media Summary below.)
• The US has traditionally been reluctant to pursue particularly punitive measures on Iranian oil exports, for fear of angering China.
• Israel withdrew the bulk of its troops from the Gaza Strip ten days ago, retaining the ability to conduct pinpoint strikes in all areas of the Strip when the need arose.
• The operation in Beit Hanoun, together with Israel’s killing of three of the sons of Hamas Political Bureau Director Ismail Haniyeh in an airstrike in the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza a week ago, indicate that despite IDF achievements in the north, the Hamas presence remains.
• On Monday, the US condemned Hamas for being the obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza, having rejected the latest US-brokered hostage deal.
• “There’s a deal on the table that would achieve much of what Hamas claims it wants to achieve, and they have not taken that deal,” US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.
• “The bottom line is that they have rejected it, and if they did accept it, it would allow for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza of at least six weeks, which would benefit the Palestinian people whom they claim to represent. It would also allow us to continue improvements in the delivery of humanitarian assistance. The bottom line is Hamas needs to take that deal, and they need to explain to the world and to the Palestinian people why they aren’t taking it because it is Hamas right now that is the barrier and the obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza.”
• The basic formula for the deal rejected by Hamas is thought to have included Hamas freeing about 40 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel and a limited return of Gazans to the north of the Strip. This would be alongside a temporary ceasefire, during which further talks would be held.
• Israel continues to maintain that for Hamas to be fully defeated as a military force in Gaza, an operation in its last stronghold of Rafah is required. However, an operation there would likely require the removal of the civilian population.
• Due to the sensitivity, any major military operation into Rafah will likely need to be coordinated with the US and Egypt.
• On Monday, the US welcomed the increase in the flow of aid to the Strip. “The aid has increased and quite dramatically in just the last few days,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said. “That’s important, but it has to be sustained.”