Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated May 13, 2024

Israel marks Memorial Day as fighting in Gaza continues

To date, 25,040 IDF soldiers have died in Israel’s wars.
Since October 7th, 716 IDF soldiers and other security personnel have been killed in action. This total includes 8 soldiers killed in the last week.
Since last Memorial Day, 834 civilians were murdered, bringing the total of Israeli civilians murdered in terror attacks to 5,100. Twelve Israeli civilians had been murdered since last Memorial Day prior to October 7th.
This morning at 1100 local time, a two-minute memorial siren was heard across the country. The official state ceremony at Mount Herzl was attended by Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Yitzhak Herzog, Knesset Speaker Ohana and the heads of the security forces.

Gaza Strip: Since the weekend, the IDF has been operating across the Gaza Strip in the south, centre and north. The IDF says it has struck 150 targets across the Strip in the last day.

On Sunday, the IDF expanded its precise operation against Hamas in Eastern Rafah. The IDF announced, “since the start of our precise operation against Hamas in Rafah we have eliminated dozens of terrorists, exposed underground terror tunnels and vast amounts of weapons. Prior to our operations we urge civilians to temporarily move towards humanitarian areas and move away from the crossfire that Hamas puts them in.”
Four months after the IDF gained control over Jabalya, the second-largest city in the northern Gaza Strip, the IDF has returned after Hamas reconstituted its military position close to the Israeli border.
As a clear sign of Hamas’s remaining capabilities, they have fired over 20 rockets in the last 24 hours aimed towards Sderot Ashkelon and Beer Sheva. Most were intercepted or landed in open areas, but one rocket directly struck a building in Ashkelon, slightly wounding three people and causing extensive damage to an apartment.
At least five more rockets were fired from Rafah at the Humanitarian Aid crossing at Kerem Shalom, all of which were either intercepted or landed in open areas.
The IDF has also been operating in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood. At the onset, the IDF called on the local population of more than 100,000 people to leave. This is because of the familiar Hamas approach of embedding themselves within the civilian population, where they had renewed their military control.

Humanitarian assistance: On Sunday, the IDF announced the opening of the ‘Western Erez’ Crossing in the northern Gaza strip, emphasising it was done in coordination with the US government.

The ID noted this crossing “is part of the effort to increase aid routes to the Gaza Strip, and to the northern Gaza Strip in particular… Dozens of trucks of flour were coordinated from the Port of Ashdod on behalf of the World Food Programme organisation after undergoing security checks.”
Ahead of the (so far) limited operation in Rafah, Israel facilitated the entry of tens of thousands of tents provided by the UAE and others for Palestinians leaving Rafah towards Khan Yunis.
On Friday, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) announced the transfer of 200,000 litres of fuel, “transferred to address the ongoing and essential requirements of the international community, including hospitals, humanitarian areas, logistical centres and the distribution of Humanitarian Aid.”
On Saturday, a new field hospital was set up in central Gaza. According to the IDF, “the establishment of the hospital was coordinated and enabled through the entry of medical workers and medical equipment, including medicines, beds, food, water, tents, first aid equipment, ventilators, and materials for the construction of the field hospital… The field hospital will be operated by 150 international medical aid workers, and its dozens of beds can be used for emergency and routine medical treatment.”
The IDF noted, “the hospital joins seven other field hospitals that have been established in the Gaza Strip since the start of the war. It is located in the area of Deir al-Balah, which serves to provide Humanitarian Aid to the Gazan residents temporarily evacuated from the eastern Rafah area. As part of the humanitarian measures to facilitate the temporary evacuation of civilians from the eastern Rafah area, some of the existing field hospitals were transferred to the expanded Humanitarian Area in Al-Mawasi in coordination with the international community, where there is an increased supply of tents, food, water, and medicine.”

Cameron rejects arms embargo: while reiterating the UK’s opposition to the operation in Rafah, Foreign Secretary Cameron yesterday told Sky News that a UK arms embargo would “strengthen Hamas”.

Comparing the UK’s minor role as a weapons supplier to Israel with that of the US, Cameron said: “The United States is a massive bulk state supplier of weapons to Israel… The UK provides less than 1 percent of Israel’s weapons and is not a state supplier. We have a licensing system and those licences can be closed if it’s judged there’s a serious risk of a serious international human rights violation.”
He reminded viewers that the last time there had been pressure on the UK Government to consider an embargo, “a few days later there was a massive Iranian attack on Israel, including 140 cruise missiles. So I don’t think it would have been a wise path.”
“If I announced that today,” he continued, “it might help me get through this television interview, but actually it would strengthen Hamas. It would weaken Israel.”

Context: The mood in Israel is particularly sombre today as Israel marks the traditional annual Memorial Day, whilst still in active combat across Gaza and in the north and with 132 hostages having remained in Hamas captivity for 219 days.

In the north, two IDF reservists were killed by a kamikaze drone strike at an army position near Metula last week, while a third was killed in a separate attack. The IDF responded with airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon,
In Gaza, a disturbing pattern has repeated itself: once the IDF leaves a combat zone, Hamas fighters have been able to return, regroup and reestablish control.
This is placing extra pressure on the political leadership to decide who will manage Gaza ‘the day after’.
Yossi Yehoshua, in Yediot Ahronot, spelt out the concern, writing “military officials have said that a decision has to be made about the regime that will take the reins in Gaza in the future. Security officials have said that no one wants Hamas. As such, the options remaining are either the Palestinian Authority or moderate forces in the Gaza Strip that enjoy the support of Arab countries. The third option, one of an Israeli military administration, is untenable…”
Meanwhile, efforts are still underway to reach an agreement for the release of hostages and a ceasefire. Despite hopes that Hamas had ‘agreed’, significant gaps remain:
- Hamas cannot guarantee how many of the 33 female soldiers, sick and elderly are still alive.
- Hamas refusing Israel’s insistence to have a veto over certain heavyweight terrorists that will be released in exchange.
- The sequencing of the deal: how may hostages will be released after how many days.
- Hamas are also seeking a longer pause: 12 weeks as opposed to 6 in an effort to end the fighting completely – something Israel will only consider for the release of all the hostages.
Hamas continues its psychological warfare, releasing another hostage video, the third in a month.
In Rafah, Israel is thus far limiting its operations to pinpoint missions. Concern for the safety of any hostages being held in Rafah, along with the over one million civilians, is allied to a desire to reduce tensions with Egypt which have been inflamed over Cairo’s opposition to any operation in Rafah.

Looking ahead: One of Israel’s most immediate diplomatic priorities will be maintaining ties with Cairo and securing Egyptian cooperation for ongoing operations in Rafah and elsewhere in the Gaza Strip.

There will likely be diplomatic fallout from Cairo’s decision to support South Africa’s case against Israel at the ICJ (see Israeli Media Summary below).
Egypt’s opposition to an operation in Rafah, like that of other Arab states, has implications for the Arab world’s involvement in the ‘day after’ in Gaza and will require delicate handling

May 9, 2024

Concern over Israel-US tension

What’s happened: President Biden has warned that the US would halt shipments of weapons to Israel if it goes ahead with an invasion of Rafah.

In an interview with CNN, President Biden said, “We’re going to continue to make sure Israel is secure in terms of Iron Dome and their ability to respond to attacks that came out of the Middle East recently.”
Biden then expressed concerns about an Israeli operation in Rafah (which he said hadn’t started yet). “I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone into Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been historically used to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities, that deal with that problem.”
Also yesterday, aid for Gaza was loaded onto the US-flagged Sagamore, docked at the port of Larnaca in Cyprus. It is expected to be the first cargo to be delivered using the new pier built in Gaza. A Cypriot government spokesperson said that, “We are completing the loading of aid onto a US vessel now in Larnaca, and once the platform is in place, this part of the process (shipment) can commence.”
Meanwhile, Hamas fired mortar shells in two separate attacks at the area of the floating pier. Moreover, following the re-opening of the Kerem Shalom crossing for Humanitarian Aid, missiles were launched from the area of Rafah toward the Crossing injuring a soldier.
On the ground in Gaza, the IDF said it was attacking Hamas targets in the central Gaza Strip. IDF troops operated in the area of Zeitoun in central Gaza in order to continue the dismantling of terrorist infrastructure and elimination of operatives in the area. That operation began with a series of intelligence-based aerial strikes on approximately 25 terror targets, including military structures, terror tunnels, observation posts, sniper posts, and additional terror infrastructure.
A joint IDF-Shin Bet statement added that Israel killed the commander of Hamas’ naval force in Gaza City, Ahmed Ali.
In the north, the IDF reported a suspicious aircraft that crashed in Israel’s north and two anti-tank missiles fired from Lebanon hit Kibbutz Malkia. An IDF soldier was killed in operational activity in northern Israel.
The IDF struck over 20 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah announced that five people were killed – three members of the Al-Quds Brigades, the Islamic Jihad’s military wing, and two Hezbollah members. This morning, two Hezbollah operatives were killed and another critically injured in an Israeli air strike east of Tyre.

Context: President Biden’s comments on weapons ties in to Secretary of Defence Austin’s confirmation yesterday that the US was reviewing some near-term security assistance to Israel.

While Biden’s comments reflect tension with Jerusalem, it remains unclear whether his deep opposition is to any Israeli action in Rafah or rather to a comprehensive Israeli operation in Rafah – similar to that in northern Gaza and Khan Yunis which required massive relocation of civilians – which has not taken place.
Senior administration officials have said that the US stopped a shipment of equipment needed for precision bombs for two weeks in order to “send a message to Israel.”
Israel has made efforts to ensure that any major incursion into Rafah would be preceded by efforts to relocate the population to expanded humanitarian zones in Al Mawasi as well as in Khan Yunis (which the IDF withdrew from in April).
In April, the Biden Administration pushed through a $14 billion (£11.22 billion) supplemental spending bill to Israel, (as part of a larger $95 billion package that also included $60 billion for Ukraine, support for Taiwan and billions in humanitarian assistance).
Senior Republicans have pushed back against Biden’s Israel policy. In a letter Senate Majority Leader McConnell and House Speaker Johnson wrote that “Israel faces an existential and multi-front threat as recently demonstrated by the direct attack by Iran and Iranian-backed terrorists, and daylight between the United States and Israel at this dangerous time risks emboldening Israel’s enemies and undermining the trust that other allies and partners have in the United States.” They added “These recent press reports and pauses in critical weapons shipments call into question your pledge that your commitment to Israel’s security will remain ironclad.”
Responding to Biden’s comments, Israeli politicians from the right generally blamed the President while those in the opposition put the responsibility for the deterioration of Israel-US relations on PM Netanyahu. Nadav Eyal, an Israeli analyst described the situation as “the worst conflict between an American administration and an Israeli government since the first Lebanon War” adding that “even then public and tactical statements of this kind weren’t made by the president.”
Israel is also concerned that these public statements have prompted Hamas not to give up on any of its excessive demands in the talks to free the hostages.

Looking ahead: CIA Director Bill Burns will return to Cairo after meeting with Mossad chief David Barnea and PM Netanyahu.

Conflicting reports have emerged over whether there has been progress in negotiations in Cairo. An Israeli official is quoted as saying that “Hamas’s proposal is very far from the proposal that Israel agreed to in late April. Unless Hamas returns to the original proposal, it will be impossible to come to an agreed framework.”
A Hamas source quoted by Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, the London-based pan-Arab news outlet owned by a Qatari company said: “We are close to reaching an agreement thanks to the mediators.” The source said that the differences of opinion have been greatly reduced, and the negotiations are now focused on Netanyahu’s request to have the ceasefire commence in the second stage of the deal, and not in the first stage

May 8, 2024

Israel studying Hamas counter-offer as IDF continues Rafah offensive

What’s happened: As Israel seeks to ascertain whether Hamas is serious about a hostage deal, troops have continued to carry out focused operations against Hamas targets in eastern Rafah.

In a statement the IDF said that “in the context of the operations, the troops gained operational control over the Gazan side of the Rafah border crossing in response to intelligence about the use made by terrorists of the crossing for terrorist purposes.”
Defence Minister Gallant said, “The operation in Rafah will not stop until Hamas is eliminated, or until the first hostage returns to Israel.” Minister Benny Gantz said that “at any stage where we can reach a plan for the return of our hostages, we will do so.”
An Israeli delegation arrived in Cairo to continue talks towards an agreement for a cease-fire. Also in Cairo are delegations from the US, Qatar and Hamas.
In a statement, PM Netanyahu claimed Hamas’ ceasefire proposal was “intended to torpedo the entry of our forces into Rafah.” Netanyahu added that the purpose of the Rafah operation is to bring back the hostages and eliminate Hamas. Israel has “already proved in the previous hostage release [that] military pressure on Hamas is a precondition for the return of the hostages.”
The Kerem Shalom border crossing between Israel and Gaza reopened to Humanitarian Aid this morning. The crossing had been closed since Sunday, when a nearby rocket attack killed four Israeli soldiers.
A senior US official confirmed that last week the US delayed a shipment of two kinds of bombs to Israel because of its opposition to a major ground operation in Rafah and the concern about the destruction that heavy bombs might cause in a dense urban area.
The IDF intercepted a suspicious aircraft from the east near Eilat last night with the target intercepted outside of Israel’s borders. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq announced that they had launched a UAV at Eilat.
Also yesterday US Central Command said that Houthis launched three drones from Yemen over the Gulf of Aden, and that a coalition ship successfully intercepted two of them and the third crashing in the Gulf of Aden. An anti-ship ballistic missile was later launched over the same area, and no injuries or damage was reported.

Context: Four of Hamas’ remaining battalions are located in Rafah, while the border – referred to as the Philadelphia Corridor – is considered essential to prevent weapons smuggling and future rearmament by Hamas.

Israel has reportedly committed to the US and Egypt to restrict its operation in Rafah, aiming only to deny Hamas authority over the border crossing – located approximately 2 miles from the city of Rafah – and concentrating on the eastern side of the city.
Significant differences exist between Israel’s latest negotiation line – described by the US as ‘extremely generous’ – and Hamas’ announced proposal. These include:
- The contours of the three-phase deal put forward by Israel required the release (within the first 42-days), of 33 living hostages – women, children, elderly or sick. Hamas has said it can only guarantee it has 20 live hostages from among that group and proposes to release 33 hostages, alive or dead.
- Hamas’ proposal suggests three hostages to be released every seven days rather than three hostages every three days.
- Hamas want to increased the number of security prisoners to be freed by Israel in exchange for each hostage in the first phase and sought to remove the veto Israel demanded on the release of certain Palestinian security prisoners.
- The Hamas proposal allows for the return of Gazans back north without security checks required by Israel and changes some specifics on the withdrawal of Israeli troops.

Israel’s delegation is comprised of lower level officials with a limited mandate to determine whether Hamas’s proposal is a ruse, a proposal that was put forward only in hope of placing the onus on Israel, or whether it was a proposal that might allow for progress to be made towards an agreement.
White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby indicated that the proposal should be viewed as a counterproposal.

Looking ahead: CIA Director William Burns, who held talks in Qatar and in Cairo, will arrive in Israel today and meet with Netanyahu and other senior officials.

An Israeli official told Kan Radio last night that if there was no change in the approach taken by the mediators and in Hamas’s position, the operation in Rafah would be expanded.
Israel reportedly intends to involve Palestinians who are not connected to Hamas in administering the Rafah crossing with the goal to have better supervision and monitoring of the aid at the crossing, through which weapons have also passed

May 7, 2024

Israeli forces take control of Rafah crossing amid hope for a hostage deal

What’s happening: The IDF has begun a precise operation in eastern Rafah, confirming this morning they have “obtained operational control of the Gazan side of the crossing.”

Ahead of the operation on Sunday morning, messages through flyers, SMS texts, phone calls and media broadcasts were relayed to the residents of eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah to “temporarily evacuate to the expanded humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi, where the IDF has facilitated the expansion of field hospitals, tents, and an increase in water, food, and medical supplies.”
Compounding the necessity of the operation, on Sunday a barrage of mortars were fired from the area of the Rafah Crossing toward the area of the Kerem Shalom Crossing killing four IDF soldiers and injuring several
While last night six rockets were fired towards Sderot. Two were intercepted, while four landed in open areas. Shrapnel from an interception fell on a house causing damage, but no injuries.
Since the launch of this operation, the IDF say they have targeted “military structures, underground infrastructure, and additional terrorist infrastructure from which Hamas operated in the Rafah area. Since the start of the operational activity, approximately 20 terrorists have been eliminated and three operational tunnel shafts have been located. No injuries were reported.”
Last night the Prime Minister’s Office announced that the War Cabinet, “unanimously decided Israel will continue its operation in Rafah, in order to apply military pressure on Hamas so as to advance the release of our hostages and achieve the other objectives of the war.”
The unanimity of the War Cabinet, which includes Gantz and Eisenkot, is significant in the context of recent political tension.
At the same time relating to the hostage negotiations, the War Cabinet stated that “While the Hamas proposal is far from meeting Israel’s core demands, Israel will dispatch a ranking delegation to Egypt in an effort to maximize the possibility of reaching an agreement on terms acceptable to Israel.”
IDF Spokesperson Hagari added, “We are studying every response, every answer, with the utmost seriousness, and we are exhausting every possibility for negotiation to bring the hostages back to their homes as a central goal, as quickly as possible. At the same time, we are continuing to press forward.”

Context: Rafah hosts four of Hamas’ remaining battalions with the long anticipated operation focused on dismantling its command and control as well as securing the crossing and the Gaza – Egyptian border. The border, referred to as the Philadelphia Corridor is considered essential to prevent weapons smuggling and future rearmament by Hamas.

Hamas also profits financially from taxation at the crossing and the smuggling routes.
Regarding efforts to release the hostages, the terms of exactly what Hamas has agreed to remain unclear. Israel is concerned that this was a Hamas ruse to place blame on Israel. However according to Reuters Hamas has agreed to the Israel proposal without substantive changes.
Some view the operation in Rafah as a strong lever incentivising Hamas to agree to a deal at the last minute.
Arab media reports the contours of the deal would include the release of 33 hostages, among them women and children (aged under 19), elderly (over 50), ailing and injured. According to Al-Akhbar, the Lebanese newspaper, “If the number of living Israeli abductees does not reach 33, the number will be completed with corpses from the same categories of this phase. In return – Israel will release all those arrested from the Gaza Strip after October 7 (women and children under the age of 19) this must be done in the fifth week of this phase.”
In return Israel is expected to release 900- 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom will be terrorists convicted of murder. The temporary cessation in fighting will last six weeks and Israel will allow for an expansion of Humanitarian Aid to enter the Strip.
The second stage would last an additional six weeks and would see arrangements for restoring “sustainable calm” in the Strip implemented before the release of further (alive male) hostages and Palestinian security prisoners.
In the third stage, the bodies of dead hostages would be released in exchange for the bodies of dead Palestinians. A five-year reconstruction program for the Gaza Strip will also be launched.
Last week US Secretary of State Blinken described the Israeli offer as, “extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel.”
Hamas has long insisted on a deal to end the fighting completely. Israel will only counter this suggestion if they can reach an agreement to release all the hostages. It is thought the term “sustainable calm” is satisfactory for both sides.
If a deal is ultimately agreed, the Rafah military operation will be halted. Netanyahu will then face political pressure from his right-wing cabinet members who see completing this operation as essential for Israel’s war aims.
The atmosphere in Israel remains fraught. Last night saw large demonstrations by hostages’ families and their supporters. Thousands of people blocked roads in Tel Aviv, whilst hundreds also protested in other areas across the country to plead / encourage the government to do a deal.
The northern border has also seen extended fighting. Over the weekend over 100 rockets were fired out of southern Lebanon towards the Galilee and Golan. The Israel Air Force attacked numerous Hezbollah positions across the border.
Two soldiers killed when a Hezbollah attack drone struck a military post near Metulla in northern Israel Monday afternoon.
The Kerem Shalom Crossing was recently reopened in order to expand providing Humanitarian Aid to Gaza. As a result of the mortar fire and the fatalities the crossing was closed.

Looking ahead: Israeli negotiators are heading to Cairo to study the details of the Hamas response.

Similarly, CIA Director William Burns who was in Qatar (and was expected to visit Israel) will also instead travel to Cairo.
If the negotiators can reach an understanding Israel’s Security Cabinet will convene and vote on the proposal.

May 3, 2024

Diplomatic efforts to end the fighting in the north

What’s happened: Whilst cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah continues, both France and US are trying to reach a ceasefire agreement.

French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne met with Israeli counterparts this week, after first visiting Lebanon where he met with figures close to Hezbollah. He said, “I call on Israeli authorities to take a public position on these French plans that will enable us to move to the next stage.”
According to the Hezbollah affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, the first stage of the French proposal demands Hezbollah withdrawal its forces 10 km north of the border and remove their outposts close to the border.
In the second phase, the Lebanese Armed Forces will be deployed along the border and Israel will stop flying over Lebanese airspace. In the third stage, the parties will discuss demarcating the land border between them.
In parallel, US envoy Amos Hochstein, who brokered the Israel-Lebanon Maritime agreement of 2022, met with Israeli Defence Minister Gallant last week, while Israel’s Kan Radio reported yesterday that Israel has shown a willingness to discuss revisions to the border with Lebanon as part of a US framework.
On the ground, Hezbollah continued to attack and Israel respond. Yesterday four rockets were launched towards Mount Dov from Lebanon, three were intercepted, and one landed in an open area. Israel returned fire to the source.
According to Syrian sources, Israel attacked a military site in the Damascus area from the air last night. The Syrian army reported eight injured and damage caused to a Syria intelligence base.
Earlier this week, Samir Geagea, leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces Party, criticised Hezbollah for inflaming tensions with Israel and called on its forces to withdraw from border areas.

Context: Since October 8th, Hezbollah has maintained a threshold of violence at a level it deems will divert resources away from Gaza to the northern front, but stopping short of necessitating an immediate Israeli ground offensive.

In that time Hezbollah has attacked Israeli military bases and civilian communities close to the Lebanese border on a near daily basis, launching over 3,300 drone, rockets, and anti-tank guided missile (ATGMs) strikes. Nine Israeli civilians, and eleven soldiers have been killed with approximately 80,000 civilians internally displaced and forced to relocate to hotels in safer parts of the country. While Israel has carried out a similar number of counter-strikes against Hezbollah targets.
Hezbollah has sought to maintain a series of observation posts keeping northern Israeli communities and military basis under permanent surveillance. ATGMs are regularly fired at civilian workers, vehicles, and homes as well as military targets.
Israel’s response to these attacks has been a combination of air and artillery strikes into Lebanon targeting Hezbollah’s military leadership and infrastructure. While primarily destroying targets in the south of the country, some Israeli airstrikes have been reported as far north as Baalbeck and the Beqaa Valley. According to recent figures, 290 Hezbollah operatives and around 40 fighters affiliated with Palestinian terror organisations have been killed by Israeli airstrikes along with one Lebanese soldier and at least 60 civilians.
Israel’s Defence Minister recently claimed that the IDF had killed half of Hezbollah’s local commanders in southern Lebanon, and that the rest have been forced into hiding. While disputed by Hezbollah, this claim underlines Israel’s approach to dismantling their military capabilities.
Israeli statements indicate that Hezbollah’s special forces, drone, rocket, and anti-tank missile commanders have been prioritised in targeted killings. Hezbollah rarely confirms the role or seniority of those killed in Israeli strikes, instead generally referring to them as martyred fighters without indicating their rank or position.
While Hezbollah honoured the week long truce between Israel and Hamas in November without being party to negotiations, the group maintains that it will not engage in concrete discussions until a ceasefire has been reached in Gaza.
Israel views its current paradigm of 80,000 citizens being internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s aggression as untenable and intolerable, and the longer they remain unable to safely return to their homes, the higher the risk of a military escalation in southern Lebanon.
It remains uncertain when or if a ground offensive against Hezbollah would be launched, but the most anticipated scenario suggests that once Israel completes their campaign in Gaza, the focus will switch to the north.
Israel continues to insist on the robust implementation of UN Resolution 1701 passed at the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Most significantly it stipulates Hezbollah forces, be pushed back as far as the Litani River ensuring Israeli civilian are out of range of Hezbollah’s accurate Kornet anti-tank missiles.
Any move away from the border on the part of Hezbollah fighters will need to be monitored and sustainable, since Hezbollah has a track record of initially complying with such deconfliction steps, before then moving its fighters back closer to the border.

Looking ahead: While around 80,000 Israelis remain indefinitely displaced from their homes in the north, the IDF continues to warn of the need of a ground incursion into southern Lebanon to restore deterrence and security to Israel’s northern border.

On Wednesday IDF Chief of Staff Halevi told troops, “we are preparing for an offensive in the north.”
If Israel reach another temporary ceasefire with Hamas, it remains to be seen if Hezbollah, although not party to the arrangement will also hold their fire

May 2, 2024

Israel opens Erez Crossing to aid

What’s happened: For the first time, Israel has opened the Erez Crossing to the northern Gaza Strip to allow in aid.

Colonel Moshe Tetro, head of Israel’s Coordination and Liaison Administration for Gaza has said he hopes the crossing will be open every day and reach a target of 500 aid trucks entering the coastal enclave every day. This would be in line with pre-war supplies, and represent a significant increase in aid entry during the past seven months.
On the first day it was opened, 30 trucks carrying food and medical supplies from Jordan were able to enter the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, Israeli negotiators remain are on standby to return to Cairo for a continuation of talks but await a Hamas answer.
There is concern that as of last night, Hamas appears poised to reject the latest proposal.
The group’s Lebanon-based official Osama Hamdan told local media that “Our position on the current negotiating paper is negative.” He added that “the negative position does not mean negotiations have stopped. There is a back-and-forth issue.”
Hamas’s opposition to the current deal ostensibly stems from it wanting iron-clad guarantees up front that Israel would end the war. Further details of the current proposal were floated yesterday by Lebanese media and indicate that negotiations for a full ceasefire would instead be conducted during the second stage of a three stage ceasefire.
US Secretary of State Blinken met with Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday. Netanyahu said “If Hamas doesn’t accept the new proposal that is on the table, there won’t be a deal and Israel will begin an operation in Rafah. We won’t agree to a deal that includes an end to the war.”
Israel had “already been very forthcoming.” Netanyahu said, and “is prepared to wait with [a military operation in] Rafah, but not to cancel it entirely.”
Blinken, who has recently praised the generosity of Israel’s ceasefire proposal, reiterated US opposition to an operation in Rafah.
He later told hostage families: “Bringing your loved ones home is at the heart of everything we’re trying to do, and we will not rest until everyone—man, woman, soldier, civilian, young, old—is back home.”

Context: Historically, the Erez crossing has facilitated the egress and ingress of people rather than supplies into the Gaza Strip. Its repurposing to allow aid into the coastal enclave has been a longstanding request of the international community who are particularly concerned by the humanitarian situation in its northern sector where it is believed to be most severe.

If Israel begins its anticipated assault on Rafah, it is almost certain that humanitarian demands in the northern Gaza Strip will significantly increase given the inflow of evacuees from the south. Together, the reopened Erez crossing and US-built floating pier which is approximately 50 percent complete will allow for more comprehensive aid delivery in the northern Gaza Strip.
While Netanyahu’s remarks suggest Israel is determined to launch an operation in Rafah whether or not a hostage deal is reached, the two elements are intimately connected.
According to the Lebanese report, the first, 40-day, stage would see a temporary ceasefire implemented, and the IDF withdrawing east of the densely-crowded parts of the Gaza Strip.
- Aerial surveillance flights over the Gaza Strip will stop for eight hours a day, and for ten hours on the days when hostages are released.
- Hamas would release at least 33 living hostages, among them women and children (aged under 19), elderly (over 50), ailing and injured.
- Israel would release 20 Palestinian prisoners aged under 19 and female prisoners for every hostage, based on a list drawn up by Hamas.
- After 16 days, international organisations and the UN will start providing humanitarian services in all of the Gaza Strip and start repairing infrastructure throughout the Gaza Strip.

The second stage would last 42 days and would see arrangements for restoring “sustainable calm” in the Strip implemented before the release of further (living male) hostages and Palestinian security prisoners.
In the third stage, also lasting 42 days, the bodies of dead hostages would be released in exchange for the bodies of dead Palestinians. A five-year reconstruction program for the Gaza Strip will also be launched.
133 hostages are still being held captive in the Gaza Strip. It is unclear how many remain alive.
An operation in Rafah has been postponed at least twice already due to international pressure from Israel’s allies, but if Hamas does not take the current deal an operation appears inevitable.
This time, Israel has helped facilitate expanded humanitarian zones with tens of thousands of tents in preparation to move the civilian population from Rafah prior to a military incursion.
According to COGAT, on April 30, aid entering Gaza included:
- “351 aid trucks were inspected and transferred to the Gaza Strip,” and “166 trucks were distributed within Gaza, 63 of which contained food.”
- “107 food aid trucks were coordinated to northern Gaza.”
- 32 trucks of flour enabled 26 bakeries to provide close to 5 million breads, rolls, and pita breads daily.
The logic for a Rafah operation remains:
- To engage, destroy, and dismantle the remaining elements of Hamas’s military structure.
- To block the smuggling routes from Egypt, which is crucial to preventing the re-armament of the Strip.
- To continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership which, having evaded Israeli forces elsewhere, are now seemingly underneath Rafah.
- If Hamas refuses the latest deal, the dwindling hope remains that some hostages could still be rescued.

Netanyahu is also facing increasing domestic political pressure with both the right wing and centrist flanks, pulling him in opposite directions and threatening to dismantle his coalition.
In addition to political pressure, there have been ongoing public demonstrations from the hostages families and their supporters to conclude a deal.
There have also been right-wing protesters attempting to block aid entering Gaza, arguing that the aid should be conditional to the release of the hostages.

Looking ahead: Israel is still waiting for Hamas’s counter-proposal.

The UK continues to support humanitarian distribution efforts for the Gaza Strip. The Royal Fleet Auxiliary is expected to deploy one of its landing ships to the Eastern Mediterranean to provide accommodation for hundreds of US sailors and soldiers working to establish the aid delivery pier, while the UK Hydrographic Office is also sharing analysis of the Gazan shore with US planners to develop the pier.

May 1, 2024

Israeli negotiators on standby to return to Egypt

What’s happening: The Israeli negotiators are still waiting for answers from Hamas over the latest iteration of a deal to release some of the hostages.

Speaking earlier this week in Saudi Arabia, US Secretary of State Blinken described the proposal as “extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel”, adding “the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas.”
The latest proposal is being presented as an Egyptian initiative, with Israeli consent, aimed at releasing up to 33 hostages in exchange for a six-week pause in fighting.
The hostages are thought to include women, elderly, and ill hostages and would be exchanged for 30 to 50 terrorists held in Israeli prisons for each hostage.
Israel has also reportedly agreed to withdraw from the Netzarim corridor that bisects the Strip and to allow residents to return to the northern Gaza.
However, Hamas are thought to be continuing to demand a permanent ceasefire and an end to the war.
Israel is only prepared to agree to a temporary ceasefire so that it can still complete the operation in Rafah after the pause.

Threat of the ICC: In parallel there is heightened concern that senior Israeli leaders face the threat of arrest warrants being issued if they were to travel abroad.

The potential targets for arrest for alleged war crimes could include Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gallant, Chief of Staff Halevi and other Israeli politicians.
It is unclear how serious this threat it, but Israeli officials are working behind the scenes to prevent this.
Netanyahu related to this threat yesterday as “an outrage of historic proportions.” He added, “international bodies like the ICC arose in the wake of the Holocaust committed against the Jewish people. They were set up to prevent such horrors, to prevent future genocides. Yet now the International Court is trying to put Israel in the dock. It’s trying to put us in the dock as we defend ourselves against genocidal terrorists and regimes, Iran of course, that openly works to destroy the one and only Jewish state.”
He noted, “it will also be the first time that a democratic country fighting for its life according to the rules of war is itself accused of war crimes.”
Adding, “it takes endless measures to prevent civilian casualties, measures that no other army takes. It does so while fighting a terrorist enemy which uses its own civilians as human shields… So, while Hamas shows no care for the lives of Palestinians and steals Humanitarian Aid meant for civilians, Israel is facilitating a surge of humanitarian assistance to Gaza. And we do this to ensure that the Palestinian population’s humanitarian needs are met.”
“Israel is not even subject to the court’s jurisdiction and it has an independent legal system that rigorously investigates all violations of the law.”
Netanyahu’s full remarks can be seen here.
The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Karim Khan visited Israel a few months ago, when he toured the sites of the October 7th massacres and met with released hostages.
Israeli media has reported that the Prime Minister has asked the hostages forum to intercede on his behalf after they established a repour with Khan.
It is also thought that Khan would consult with the British government among others before proceeding with a warrant.
In a separate / related decision the Israeli government has allowed British judges to visit captured Nukhba terrorists held in Israeli prison.

Context: For 207 days, 133 hostages are still being held captive in the Gaza Strip. It is unclear how many remain alive.

Whilst Israel waits for a response from Hamas, the military remains ready for an operation into Rafah, awaiting a decision by the political echelon.
An operation in Rafah has been postponed at least twice already due to international pressure from Israel’s allies, but if Hamas does not take the current deal an operation appears inevitable.
This time, Israel has helped facilitate expanded humanitarian zones with tens of thousands of tents in preparation to move the civilian population from Rafah prior to a military incursion.
The logic for a Rafah operation remains:
- To engage, destroy, and dismantle the remaining elements of Hamas’s military structure.
- To block the smuggling routes from Egypt, which is crucial to preventing the re-armament of the Strip.
- To continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership which, having evaded Israeli forces elsewhere, are now seemingly underneath Rafah.
- If Hamas refuses the latest deal, the dwindling hope remains that some hostages could still be rescued.
These latest indirect talks are being led by the Egyptians instead of the Qataris. Although Israel remains adamant that they will not commit to end the fighting, the Egyptians are proposing to Hamas that if this pause is successful, they can negotiate a second phased release of the remaining hostages in return for a long term ceasefire.
Netanyahu is also facing increasing domestic political pressure with both the right wing and centrist flanks, pulling him in opposite directions and threatening to dismantle his coalition.
In addition to political pressure, there have been ongoing public demonstrations from the hostages families and their supporters to conclude a deal.

Looking ahead: US secretary Blinken has arrived in Israel for his ninth visit since the war began, he will meet Prime Minister Netanyahu today and also expected to update him on the potential normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia.

Blinken is also scheduled to visit the Kerem Shalom crossing and see first-hand the expanded Humanitarian Aid entering into Gaza.

April 26, 2024

Israeli Ideas for the Day After in Gaza

While the full military defeat of Hamas – for which Israel says an operation in Rafah is essential – remains outstanding, both international and domestic Israeli attention remains on the question of the “day after” Hamas in Gaza.

Who will assume control and take charge of urgent civilian priorities like the distribution of aid? How much control will Israel retain? What will be the role of the Palestinian Authority? And what will be the role of Arab states and the wider international community?

This BICOM research paper assesses the variety of Israeli thinking on these and other questions. Drawing on the government’s (limited) official policy, as well as a diverse range of expert proposals, the paper identifies those areas where there is a consensus of opinion and those where different thinkers, despite desiring the same outcome of a demilitarised and deradicalised Gaza Strip no longer able to threaten Israel, reach substantively different conclusions.

April 25, 2024

Hamas Releases Hostage Video

What’s happened: Hamas has released a new video of American-Israeli Hersh Goldberg-Polin, held hostage in the Gaza Strip since October 7^th.

The 23-year-old, kidnapped from the Nova music festival, appears in the video missing his lower left arm. He is known to have sustained injuries when one of the October 7^th terrorists threw a grenade into an area in which he and others were sheltering.
In the video, he says that he has been held nearly 200 days, indicating that it was made recently.
Goldberg-Polin’s mother Rachel, urging leaders to negotiate a hostage deal, said “Hersh, if you can hear this, we heard your voice today for the first time in 201 days and, if you can hear us, I am telling you—we are telling you—we love you, stay strong, survive.”
IDF Spokesperson Hagari said “this psychological terror video is not only a reminder of what Hamas did on October 7th, it is a reminder of how sick this terror group is, terrorising the hostages and their families too.”
“Until Hamas releases our hostages,” he added, “the IDF will continue to pursue Hamas everywhere in Gaza. We will leave no stone unturned in our efforts to find our hostages.”
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement that “Hersh’s cry is the collective cry of all the hostages – their time is rapidly running out. We cannot afford to waste any more time; the hostages must be the top priority. All the hostages must be brought home — those alive to begin the process of rehabilitation, and those murdered for a dignified burial.”
Meanwhile, preparations for an anticipated operation in the southern Gazan city of Rafah are intensifying. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office said yesterday the operation was “moving ahead”, though gave no timeline, while IDF Chief of Staff Halevi and Shin Bet Director Bar were in Cairo yesterday for meetings with their Egyptian counterparts.
The IDF has mobilised two reserve brigades for what it calls “defensive and tactical missions in the Gaza Strip.” “The brigades, which have so far operated along the northern border,” said the IDF, “have prepared in recent weeks for operations in the Gaza Strip.” Both are expected to be deployed to the central Gaza Strip, freeing units currently serving there for operations in Rafah.
The IDF has also continued intensive operations in the northern and central Strip this week.
In the north, Sgt. First Class (res.) Salm Alkreshat was killed in an operation in Beit Hanoun on Monday, while on Tuesday, four rockets were fired from northern Gaza at the Israeli city of Sderot, in an attack claimed by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Over the last day, two terrorists in central Gaza were killed attempting to launch rockets at Israel in one of more than 50 sites targeted by Israeli strikes over the past day. Another strike in Gaza City’s killed a group of Hamas operatives which had opened fire at troops in central Gaza, while a further strike in central Gaza’s Nuseirat killed a Hamas sniper cell. Yesterday, the IDF also struck Hamas launchers located in a humanitarian zone in southern Gaza.

Context: The video of Goldberg-Polin is the first proof of life of a hostage in several months, and is thought to have been made ostensibly as a gesture from Hamas to Qatar, which has brokered hostage release negotiations and has been pressured by the US to facilitate proofs of life, especially for US citizens like Goldberg-Polin.

The video was sent first to the Israeli and US governments, via Qatar, before then being made public.
It also functions as a cruel use of psychological warfare. Yediot Ahronot quotes an unnamed Israeli official as saying about the video: “Its purpose is to create domestic pressure in Israel. The messages in the video are directed at Netanyahu and the government. Hamas’s strategy is to sow internal chaos and, if possible, to bring about the government’s dissolution.”
Hersh’s injury was known soon after the event, when footage of the Nova massacre emerged.
Hamas kidnapped 253 hostages on October 7^th. It is thought that 133 remain in Gaza, not all of them still alive, with the IDF having confirmed the deaths of 34.
Halevi and Bar’s meeting with Egyptian counterparts signals Israeli coordination of a likely operation in Rafah with its allies.
Such an operation can only be conducted following a massive evacuation of over a million civilians, the bulk of whom have fled to the city from other areas of the Strip to escape the fighting.
Temporary shelters have been set up in other parts of the Strip, at the initiative of Egypt and the UAE and in consultation with Israel.
UK media yesterday reported satellite images showing five field hospitals and a new “tent city” near Khan Yunis, also in the southern Strip. Israeli media is quoting government sources saying that the Defence Ministry has bought 40,000 tents, each with the capacity to shelter 10 to 12 people.
Hamas has itself begun to prepare for an incursion into its last stronghold, home to four of its remaining (previously 24) battalions. It has resupplied its fighters there with arms and supplies and has also reportedly increased the number of fighters guarding hostages located in the city.
Israeli liaison with Egypt is especially significant, given Cairo’s public opposition to an operation it fears could cause thousands of Gazans fleeing Rafah to breach the Gaza-Egypt border.
The intensification of IDF operations in northern and central Gaza – areas from which Israel largely withdrew several months ago – indicates that the operational presence of Hamas and other terror groups remains there.

Looking ahead: Both the war cabinet and the wider security cabinet are set to meet today to discuss the potential operation, as well as the state of hostage deal talks.

The Rafah evacuation process could take a further three to four weeks.

April 22, 2024

US Congress Passes Military Aid Bill

What’s happened: On Saturday, the US House of Representatives passed a bill including $17 billion (£13.75 billion) in military aid to Israel. Some $9 billion is also set to be allocated to humanitarian relief in Gaza and other conflict zones.

$5.2 billion will go toward replenishing and expanding Israel’s missile and rocket defence systems; $3.5 billion to purchasing advanced weapons systems; $1 billion to enhancing weapons production; $4.4 billion for other defence supplies and services; and some $2.4 billion to US operations in the region amid the Gaza war.
The aid package, which also included $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, had become a hugely divisive political issue in the US, with House Republicans split, many siding against Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson in opposing the bill. In the event, the bill passed 311 to 112, with 101 Republicans voting against.
Prime Minister Netanyahu said the bill “demonstrates strong bipartisan support for Israel and defends Western civilisation. Thank you friends, thank you America!”
Elsewhere, in an unprecedented move, the US is set to impose sanctions on the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda unit, citing alleged human rights violations against Palestinians in the West Bank. The sanctions will see US military aid blocked from being used to fund Netzah Yehuda.
Responding on X (formerly Twitter), Netanyahu said “sanctions must not be imposed on the Israel Defence Force… at a time our soldiers are fighting the terrorist monster, the intention of imposing sanctions on an IDF unit is the height of absurdity and a moral low point.”
National Unity Party Chairman and war cabinet Minister Gantz wrote, “the Netzah Yehuda battalion is an inseparable part of the IDF. It is subject to military law and is responsible for operating in full compliance with international law. The State of Israel has a strong, independent judicial system that evaluates meticulously any claim of a violation or deviation from IDF orders and code of conduct, and will continue to do so.”
“I have great appreciation for our American friends, but the decision to impose sanctions on an IDF unit and its soldiers sets a dangerous precedent and conveys the wrong message to our shared enemies during war time. I intend on acting to have this decision changed.”
Opposition leader Lapid said the move was “a mistake,” but that “the source of the problem is not at the military level but at the political level.”

Context: The announcements on aid and sanctions come as more details emerge regarding Israel’s attack on an Iranian air base in Isfahan last week, in retaliation for Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel of April 13^th.

Israel faced a dilemma on how best to respond to the attack, which included a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles and weaponised UAVs. Its response needed to be strong even to restore deterrence but not so strong as to provoke further Iranian aggression and jeapordise international support.
A single missile was therefore fired from an Israeli F-15, deployed at an Iranian Air Force base, while included deployment of a Russian S-300 battery which protected the nuclear facility in Natanz.
The targeted strike sent a clear message to Iran that while its own attack on Israel consisted of over 300 projectiles which caused minimal damage, Israel was able to penetrate Iranian defences and reach a nuclear site area with just one missile.
Israel not publicly claiming the attack also gave Iran room to “plausibly deny” that the attack took place, thus minimising the risk of an Iranian counter-response.
Having successfully navigated the issue, there is a hope that Israel and the US can advance their coordination over a potential incursion into Rafah.
Israel maintains that the achievement of its war aims requires an operation in Hamas’s last Gazan stronghold – home to its remaining four battalions. The US has opposed the operation, citing the severe humanitarian situation in the Strip and the fate of over a million Gazan refugees sheltering in the city.
Heeding US calls for a non-escalatory response to Iran might well give Israel diplomatic currency to consider an operation in Gaza in coordination with Washington.
The Netzah Yehuda unit is comprised largely of ultra-Orthodox recruits and has faced scrutiny for a number of incidents involving Palestinians. In December 2022, it was moved out of the West Bank and onto the Syrian border. It is currently fighting on the Gazan front.
The apparent US sanctions will follow similar measures taken in recent months, and imposed by the UK as well, targeting those identified as violent West Bank settlers.
This comes amid a recent increase in violence. This morning, three were lightly injured in a car-ramming attacks in Jerusalem.
Yesterday, three West Bank Palestinians died after what the IDF said were attacks against Israeli soldiers, while over the weekend the IDF continued a counter terror operation in the Tulkarem area. 13 out of 14 Palestinians killed were identified as jihadist fighters and nine Israeli troops injured.
High tensions remains in the West Bank following the killing and abduction of an Israeli 14-year-old, which precipitated retaliatory attacks by some settlers in the area. Following a manhunt, a suspect was arrested this morning.

Looking ahead: The US aid package will now move to the Senate this week, with lawmakers expected to vote in favour.

Tonight marks the beginning of Passover, as well as the milestone of 200 days in captivity for the remaining 133 Israeli hostages in Gaza.
Reports suggest that US pressure on Qatar may lead to Hamas’s external leadership seeking relocation. Adding fuel to these rumours, senior Hamas leaders Ismail Haniya and Khaled Mashal met with Turkish Erdogan on Saturday.

LATEST

Key background

Israel marks Memorial Day as fighting in Gaza continues

Concern over Israel-US tension

Israel studying Hamas counter-offer as IDF continues Rafah offensive

Israeli forces take control of Rafah crossing amid hope for a hostage deal

Diplomatic efforts to end the fighting in the north

Israel opens Erez Crossing to aid

Israeli negotiators on standby to return to Egypt

Israeli Ideas for the Day After in Gaza

Hamas Releases Hostage Video

US Congress Passes Military Aid Bill

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