After an earlier delay, due to Hamas delaying the list of names of Israeli hostages due to be released that they had agreed to provide, the ceasefire is underway. The three hostages set to be released have been named as: Emily Damari, Doron Steinbrecher and Romi Gonen.

Defense Minister Israel Katz says Israel will not end the war in the Gaza Strip until all the hostages held by Hamas are returned. “We will not stop the war until everyone returns home,” he says during a visit to an army facility on the Gaza border where released hostages will receive initial treatment. “I came to make sure that the IDF is prepared to protect the communities and soldiers against any attack… even during the ceasefire,” Katz says. The defense minister also vows that the military will stay in a buffer zone along the Gaza border, and “will respond strongly to any violation and threat.”

What’s happened: Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani announced at a press conference in Doha on Wednesday night that a ceasefire and hostage-release agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas.

• The Israeli delegation, led by Mossad Director Barnea, remains in Doha in order to conclude the final details and to finalise the list of hostages to be released.
• This morning, Prime Minister Netanyahu raised concerns by releasing a statement saying, “Hamas has reneged on parts of the agreement reached with the mediators and Israel in an effort to extort last-minute concessions. The Israeli Cabinet will not convene until the mediators notify Israel that Hamas has accepted all elements of the agreement.”

Details of the deal: The agreement will secure the release of 33 hostages in the first stage, which will last 42 days. 

• The hostages to be freed in the first stage include women civilians, female soldiers, wounded hostages and male civilians over the age of 50. Most of the hostages are alive.
• Three hostages are to be released on the first day of the deal. Another four will be released on the seventh day. Thereafter, three hostages will be released every week. The living hostages will be released before the dead.
• On the seventh day, after seven Israeli hostages have been freed, Israel will carry out its first withdrawal, and residents of the northern Gaza Strip will be allowed to return to their homes. Cars will be allowed to travel north of the Netzarim Corridor after undergoing inspection (though details of the inspection mechanism remain unclear). 
• Israel will release roughly 1,000 terrorists in exchange for the hostages. Nukhba terrorists will not be released in the deal. Terrorists from the Gaza Strip will return to the Gaza Strip. Murderers from the West Bank will be exiled overseas, but those who were not convicted of murder will be allowed to return to their homes.
• In addition to the terrorists who will be released, Israel will also release 1,000 Gazans arrested since October 8th who were not directly involved in the Hamas attacks on October 7th.
• Negotiations over the second stage of the deal are to begin on the 16th day of the agreement’s implementation. The remaining hostages—men under the age of 50, male soldiers and dead bodies—are to be released in the second stage of the deal.
• During the sixth week of the ceasefire, Hamas is supposed to release two civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who both entered Gaza back in 2014 and 2015 respectively and have been held by Hamas since then. Both are considered to be suffering from mental illnesses.
• Fifty wounded Hamas members per day will be allowed to enter Egypt through the Rafah Crossing. Each one must be approved by Israel and Egypt. Similarly, wounded civilians will be permitted to leave Gaza through the Rafah Crossing.
• Israel will allow 600 trucks transporting humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip every day. This is more than double the current daily average.
• During the 42-day ceasefire Israel will retain a 700 metre security zone inside Gaza, except for several specified places where Israel will be allowed to remain 1,000 meters inside the Strip.
• The IDF will gradually withdraw, including from the Philadelphi Corridor, in keeping with the maps and agreements. The IDF will withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor by the 50th day.

Reactions to the deal: President Herzog welcomed the agreement. He said, “This is the right course of action, this is an important course of action, this is an essential course of action. There is no moral and human, Jewish and Israeli duty greater than bringing back to us our sisters and brothers.” 

• Following the announcement President Biden, appeared to back the Israeli narrative saying, “We reached this point because of the pressure Israel built on Hamas backed by the United States.” 
• “Hamas’ leader Sinwar was killed. Hamas’ strongest supporter Iran’s attacks on Israel failed because of the coalition my administration organised to stop them. We organised US ships and planes to come to Israel’s defence. We organised a coalition of 20 countries to stand up to Houthis including against their attacks on Israel. Hezbollah another of Hamas’ strongest backers was significantly weakened on the battlefield, their leadership was destroyed with our support Israel.”
• President-elect Trump emphasised his team would, “make sure Gaza NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven”
• Prime Minister Starmer noted, “This is the long-overdue news that the Israeli and Palestinian people have desperately been waiting for….our attention must turn to how we secure a permanently better future for the Israeli and Palestinian people, grounded in a two-state solution that will guarantee security and stability for Israel, alongside a sovereign and viable Palestine state.”
• Leader of the Opposition Lapid said, “The entire country isn’t breathing tonight. We are all waiting and we are all praying, like [Joseph] in the Book of Genesis, ‘I seek my brothers.’  We must not stop now. The deal must not end with its first part. I promise, as I’ve promised before, a safety net until the last moment, until the last hostage. They all need to return home.”

Context: The deal appears to closely resemble previous iterations of similar efforts to reach a ceasefire going back to May 2024.

• The agreement was successfully overseen by both the Biden and Trump teams, who appeared to be well coordinated. Whilst Biden’s administration can be credited with the genesis of the text, many are crediting Trump with adding vital pressure to all parties to conclude a deal prior to his inauguration. 
• Noting the IDF’s successes, President Biden last night spoke of the US role that, “helped to shape changed the equation so now the terror network that protected and sustained Hamas is far weaker, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades, Hezbollah is badly degraded and after 15 months of war Hamas’ senior leaders are dead, thousands of Hamas’ fighters are dead and their military formations have been destroyed. With nowhere to turn Hamas finally agreed to releasing hostages.” 
• Biden went on to say, “The war transformed the Middle East, our friends are strong our enemies are weak. There is a genuine opportunity for a new future. In Lebanon an opportunity for a future free from the grip of Hezbollah, in Syria free from the Assad tyranny, for Palestinians a pathway to a state, and for the region a future of normalisation integration of Israel and all its Arab neighbours including Saudi Arabia.” 
• The deal is expected to be ratified by a large majority of the security cabinet and the cabinet, despite the objections of the Religious Zionist Party and Jewish Power. It remains to be seen if either party will leave the government over the deal. 
• After the vote, the Cabinet Secretariat will announce the names of the Palestinian prisoners to be released in order to allow the public to petition the High Court of Justice to block the releases. 
• In the previous deal, the public had 10 hours to file appeals, with the court ruling that the deal was in the wider public interest.
• The precise timetable also depends on Hamas’s ability to retrieve the hostages in time.    

Looking ahead: The security cabinet and full cabinet are expected to meet later today and ratify the agreement. 

• The implementation of the deal is expected to begin this Sunday (19th January).
• The IDF are setting up a compound close to Gaza that will be used to receive the released hostages and reunite them with their families. 
• Preparations are also being made to receive wounded hostages who will be swiftly evacuation to hospitals.
• In part of their conversation, Trump and Netanyahu agreed to meet soon in Washington.

What’s happened: Israel and Hamas appear on the cusp of reaching a ceasefire deal in Doha.

• While Israel has accepted the outlines of a proposed ceasefire deal, Hamas has still not submitted a formal response to the proposed ceasefire and hostage deal.
• The group is reported to have demanded detailed maps and a clear timeline for the IDF withdrawal from parts of the Gaza Strip in the first stage of the agreement.
• Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu Prime held meetings with two groups of hostages’ relatives. Netanyahu said that he was “ready [to agree to] a lengthy ceasefire, provided the hostages return. This is a matter of days or hours.” When speaking to another group, Netanyahu said that after President-elect Donald Trump takes office, “the rules of the game will change substantively. Every violation of the ceasefire will be met with a fierce and powerful response and a form of combat we haven’t seen yet.”
• Some hostage families are concerned that the current ceasefire framework may collapse after the first phase, only allowing a third of those currently held in the Gaza Strip to be returned to Israel. Apart from the 33 hostages who qualify as “humanitarian” cases and are slated to be released gradually over a six-week period, another 65 hostages will remain in captivity at this stage.
• The National Security Minister Ben Gvir revealed that he had personally blocked previous ceasefire and hostage release deals and threatened to resign from the current coalition. Ben Gvir also called on his fellow far-right Finance Minister Smotrich join him in opposing the deal.
• While Smotrich has historically vocally opposed ceasefire deals on the grounds that they provide too favourable terms for Hamas including the release of large  numbers of convicted terrorists, he has yet to respond to Ben Gvir’s comments.
• Smotrich is understood to be “undecided” on whether or not he will support this deal, and stated that his priorities are “how to fully achieve the goals of the war, total victory, the complete military and civil destruction of Hamas, and returning the hostages home”. Smotrich has demanded guarantees that the war will not end upon the deal’s completion; that the IDF will resume fighting in Gaza; and that changes be made to the way in which the military prosecutes the war.

Context: While a deal seems imminent, there are still unknown components. 

• No list of hostages due to be released in the first phase has been provided by Hamas (nor any confirmation as to who is still alive); the specific areas from which Israel will withdraw and the schedule; an inspection mechanism for Gazans to return to the north of the Strip when Israel withdraws; and specifics over transitioning from the first phase to negotiations over the second phase, which are due to start from the 16th day of the ceasefire.
• Further negotiations are hoped to lead to an eventual full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as well as the release of male hostages and the deceased’s remains, but both parties remain far from this point.
• Netanyahu’s messaging reflects his wish to try and balance different public constituencies. The Hostages Forum has been pushing for a ceasefire for many months, while the Tikva Forum and the Gevurah Forum are considered more ideologically right-wing and have been pushing for total defeat of Hamas.
• In any event, the government is not expected to collapse if the deal is approved. Due to Gideon Saar’s New Hope party joining the coalition last September, Smotrich and Ben Gvir do not have the power to topple the government over the ceasefire deal.
• In parallel, US Secretary of State Blinken delivered what may be his final speech in office where he provided his most detailed yet view of what “the day after” in the Gaza Strip could be. Blinken stated that the Palestinian Authority (PA) should invite international partners “to help establish and run an interim administration with responsibility for key civil sectors in Gaza, like banking, water, energy, health, civil coordination with Israel.”
• He also confirmed that the interim administration would “hand over complete responsibility to a fully reformed PA administration as soon as it’s feasible”, while suggesting that “an interim security mission would be made up of members of partner nation security forces and vetted Palestinian personnel”. This would eventually lead to the establishment of a local PA security force.
• Blinken acknowledged that this plan would be handed over to President-elect Trump’s transition team, and it would be for them to implement once in office in the event that a ceasefire deal is agreed on.
• International partners have indicated a willingness to support and engage with Blinken’s suggestions for a PA governed Gaza, but on the proviso that governance was the responsibility of PA with unified control of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and a pathway to establishing a Palestinian state had been initiated.

Looking ahead: There is hope that that an announcement will be made imminently possibly even later today or tomorrow, with the deal starting to be implemented as early as Sunday.

• It remains unclear if hostages will be released via Egypt or through the other crossings. Israel is likely to once again coordinate their safe transfer via the Red Cross and then have medical facilities on standby to receive the released hostages.       
• If Hamas fails to agree terms, the IDF could intensify their operations.

Hostage deal: Israeli officials are very optimistic about the prospects of an agreement being signed as more details have emerged over a potential hostage deal and ceasefire agreement:

• 33 hostages are to be released gradually in the first six-week stage of the deal. The working assumption is that most of them are alive. This will include: female soldiers, female civilians, men over the age of 50, and people who are either ill or wounded.
• In return, Israel will release Palestinian terrorists from Israeli prisons. Only once it becomes clear how many of the hostages are alive will the number and details of the Palestinian terrorists to be released be confirmed.
• Some of those released (convicted murderers and those still deemed a security risk) could be exiled abroad, most likely to Turkey, Egypt, or Qatar.
• Israel will release some Gazans arrested during the last year, but insists that none of the Nukhba terrorists that participated in the October 7th  massacre will be released in the first stage.
• Similarly, Israel is refusing to release the body of former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (at least in the first stage). There are suggestions that Israel is conditioning its release on information being provided regarding the two civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, and the bodies of Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, that have been held in Gaza for over 10 years.
• IDF forces will gradually withdraw from the population centres inside Gaza, but are expected to remain in some capacity on the Philadelphi Corridor (at least in the initial stage) and around the perimeter. 
• At some point in the initial period, Israel will allow Gazans to return to northern Gaza, through a currently unspecified monitoring mechanism.
• The Rafah Crossing will be opened for Gazans to enter Egypt for medical treatment. It is currently unclear who will be operating the crossing.
• During the initial six-week period, negotiations will continue to facilitate the release of the remaining hostages.
• If no further agreement is reached, Israel retains the option to resume the fighting at the end of the first six-week period.  

Fighting continues: In parallel to the talks in Qatar, the IDF continues to operate in the north, south, and centre of the Gaza Strip.

• Yesterday, the IDF suffered more fatalities. Five soldiers were killed and eight more were seriously injured in an operational accident in northern Gaza.
• The soldiers were working with explosives inside a building in Bet Hanoun when the explosives detonated prematurely, collapsing the building. The precise cause of the explosion will be investigated. 
• Overall 53 soldiers have been killed in the last 3 months in northern Gaza. 
• Once more the Houthis fired a missile at Israel last night. Air raid sirens went off at around 3:00 am in central Israel, sending millions of Israelis to their shelters once more.
• This was the third attack on Israel out of Yemen within the last 24 hours. Yesterday evening a missile was intercepted outside of Israeli territory, and a drone was downed in the morning.

Context: The emerging deal is similar to the proposal presented by President Biden in May 2024.

• Since then, more hostages have died and been murdered and hundreds of soldiers have been killed.
• In places where the IDF has withdrawn, Hamas has been able to reconstitute its fighting forces. Thousands of Palestinians have been killed and the extent of the damage and destruction of Gaza has also increased, both as a result of Israeli attacks and the substantial proliferation of IED’s and booby-trapped buildings.
• Israel has killed Hamas leader Sinwar, and dismantled the organisation’s military infrastructure. However, fighters remain able to carry out attack against soldiers and even launch rockets into Israel.
• Israel has significantly weakened Hamas’s allies in the Iranian-led axis, though the Houthis retain the capacity to launch regular attacks at Israel.
• Israel’s successful campaign against Hezbollah and Iran, as well as the fall of Assad in Syria, has created a more favourable strategic environment for Israel and weakened Hamas’s support.
• The election of Trump and his threats have significantly helped extract compromises on all sides. All the parties, including Israel, Egypt, and Qatar are keen to ingratiate themselves with the incoming president.
• In the previous efforts to reach a deal, Netanyahu had insisted on retaining control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Although the details remain unclear, it now appears that the military’s recommendation to implement creative technological solutions and cooperation with Egypt and the US will win out. 
• Domestically, Netanyahu faces opposition from his right-wing partners and some organisations supporting terror victims. Their main concern will be the release of unrepentant terrorist murderers which, as with the release of Sinwar himself in the Shalit deal in 2011, will lead to future terror attacks.     

Looking ahead: If/when a final agreement is reached, it will need to be voted on by the security cabinet, then by the full cabinet.

• The government is then expected to publish the names of the prisoners due to be released. At this point, the Israeli public will be given time to submit appeals against their release.
• Israel is insisting it will retain important assets (territory inside Gaza and heavyweight prisoners) to ensure the release of all the remaining hostages beyond the first stage.
• Only after that will talks about the reconstruction and the future governance of Gaza begin.

What’s happening: Indirect negotiations are ongoing in Qatar. The understanding is that this week will be critical opportunity to secure a deal. 

• Israel has sent its most senior delegation to Qatar to try and close a deal. The mission includes head of Mossad Barnea, the head of the Shin Bet Bar, Maj.-Gen. (res) Nitzan Alon, and the prime minister’s Foreign Policy Adviser, Dr. Ophir Falk. 
• On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to US President Biden and updated him on the progress being made. The prime minister thanked President Biden and President-elect Trump for cooperating in this “sacred mission.”
• On Saturday night Netanyahu met with Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. Witkoff came to Israel from Doha, before returning to the Qatar to rejoin the talks.
• Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told US media on Sunday, “We are very, very close on a hostage deal, and yet being very close still means we’re far because until you actually get across the finish line, we’re not there.”
• Also on Sunday, Foreign Secretary Lammy met his Israeli counterpart Foreign Minister Saar in Jerusalem. They discussed the possibility of an impending deal as well as wider regional issues including Lebanon, Syria and the Iranian threat.

Contours of a deal: Although no details have been confirmed, the deal is thought to resemble the one presented by President Biden back in May 2024 and to include three phases 

• During the first stage it is hoped that around 33 or 34 Israeli hostages will be released in exchange for a six-week ceasefire and the release of hundreds of convicted terrorists in Israeli prisons. Israel will also receive a list of the remaining living hostages. 
• The ratio is not yet known, but Israel is demanding that individuals sentenced to life imprisonment are deported abroad. 
• According to Al-Arabiya, 50 female Palestinian prisoners will be released for every female IDF soldier. 
• Palestinian media has reported that Qadura Fares, who heads the Palestinian Authority’s commission on prisoners, will also join the talks in Qatar. According to Fares, 25 hostages would be released in the first stage of the deal in exchange for 48 terrorists who were released in the Shalit deal and subsequently rearrested, as well as roughly 200 terrorists who are serving life-term sentences, and around 1,000 other prisoners, including “children, women and elderly” Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody.  According to Fares, the total number of Palestinian prisoners who are to be released (during all the phases) is expected to exceed 3,000. 
• During the first stage, the IDF will redeploy outside population centres. Gazans will be allowed to return to northern Gaza but only after undergoing inspections by a third party that is not the IDF. The details of the inspection mechanism are still being discussed.  
• Israel is insisting on retaining at least a partial presence along the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza- Egypt border, but is apparently prepared to redeploy out of the Netzarim Corridor that currently bisects the Strip. 
• Israel has continued to insist that there will be no formal end to the war at this point. The semantics are still being negotiated to find the appropriate language that will allow Israel to resume the fighting. 
• Another issue under discussion is the commitment to continue negotiations during the first stage until the second stage, which will involve the return of all the remaining hostages. 

Context: Although there is cautious optimism towards a deal, we have been here before. It remains unclear if Hamas are prepared to do a deal where they give up their most valuable assets.  

• Three IDF divisions continue to operate in the north, south and centre of the Strip. 
• Four more IDF soldiers were killed in Bet Hanoun in northern Gaza over the weekend. They were killed by an explosive device on a road that had been considered part of a safe route. 
• In a separate incident in the Jabalya area in northern Gaza on Friday, eight soldiers were injured, three of them seriously, by a bomb that exploded when they entered a building.  
• Since the start of the IDF’s ground manoeuvre in Gaza 14.5 months ago, 400 soldiers have been killed. This includes eleven soldiers who have been killed and 20 wounded in northern Gaza in the last two weeks. 
• The ground manoeuvre in Bet Hanoun in the north east corner of the Strip is considered critical for restoring security to Sderot and other communities due its close proximity.
• The IDF casualties are the latest example of Hamas being able to rehabilitate its fighting force even if it reverts to guerrilla tactics they have been able to booby trap hundreds of buildings, plant explosives under roads and set up sniper and anti-tank missile positions.
• The IDF is once more reviewing these incidents to learn lessons and change their operating procedures. 
• Ahead of any hostage agreement Prime Minister Netanyahu is working to ensure any deal brought to the security cabinet enjoys the widest consensual support possible.
• Netanyahu already has a majority thanks to support from his Likud party, Gidon Saar’s faction and the ultra-Orthodox. On Sunday night Netanyahu met separately with National Security Minister Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Smotrich to persuade them to support the deal too. 
• Netanyahu reportedly told Smotrich it would be a mistake to damage relations with the Trump administration. As a further incentive he suggested that approving the deal would help facilitate his plans for the West Bank. 
• The current assessment is that even if Smotrich and Ben Gvir don’t support the deal they will not bring down the government.       

Looking ahead: The IDF is preparing for two scenarios – the first in which negotiations succeed and the second in which they fail. 

• In the event of a deal, the IDF will significantly expand the amount of humanitarian aid and redeploy forces out of northern Gaza.
• If there is no ceasefire the IDF studying the option of expanding the ground manoeuvre.

What’s happened: The IDF recovered two bodies from a tunnel in Rafah in southern Gaza on Wednesday. 

• One of the bodies was identified as Youssef Ziyadne, a 53 year old Israeli-Bedouin from Rahat who was the father of 18 children. 
• The second body is widely presumed to be his 22 year old son, Hamza, but this has not been formally confirmed. 
• Youssef was kidnapped on October 7^th along with three of his children from the cowshed in Kibbutz Holit. 
• His two younger children Aisha 17 and Bilal 18 were released as part of the hostage deal in November 2023 with Hamza remaining in Gaza.
• Youssef’s body was recovered from Rafah in a special IDF and Shin Bet operation from an area where the IDF had operated in the past. The troops returned after receiving new intelligence about the hostages’ location. 
• Body remains of the terrorist who was guarding him were also found. Though the IDF doesn’t know what caused Youssef’s death or when he was murdered, but it is understood that it was not recent. 
• On hearing the news Israeli leaders from across the political spectrum expressed sorrow.
• The Israeli media carried critical quotes from one member of the Ziyadne family, speaking about the government saying, “They don’t listen to anyone. They’ve decided that they want dead hostages. Do you know why? Because they don’t want witnesses against them if there is ever a commission of inquiry. They don’t want hostages who can testify.”  
• Farhan Qadi, who was rescued from a Rafah tunnel at the end of August, was a childhood friend of Ziyadne. He told Yediot Ahronot, “This broke me, completely broke me, we all cried. Youssef was a neighbour and a friend. This is very hard. The war should have been stopped a long time ago and they should have been brought home. I also put up a mourners’ booth. He was everyone’s friend, everyone’s father, he didn’t deserve this. Nobody deserves this.” 
• There remain 98 hostages held in Gaza for 461 days, 37 of whom have been declared dead.
• Also yesterday, another three IDF soldiers who were killed in Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip when their tank was hit by an explosive device. All three were in their early 20s. 

Context: Efforts to reach a hostage deal continue in Qatar. There are contradictory reports as to whether a deal is close or not.         

• Steve Witkoff, President-elect Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, met yesterday in Florida with Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer, before heading to Qatar. 
• Arab media reports suggest that Witkoff’s trip to Qatar is designed to approve a finalised deal between Israel and Hamas.
• On this issue Biden and Trump teams appear well coordinated and there is hope that Witkoff’s presence will help galvanise positive momentum.  
• However, Israeli officials reportedly remain sceptical about the prospects of a deal being concluded shortly. Reports suggest that every time an agreement is reached on one issue, Hamas reopens other issues.
• The White House also seem to have doubts about the prospects of hostage deal negotiations ending in success, largely due to Hamas intransience and the substantial gaps that remain between the sides.  
• The talks remain slow and laboured as it takes a long time to receive answers from Hamas in Gaza and then run the decision via their external leadership too. 
• At the same time, Secretary of State Blinken said last night that the sides were very close to an agreement on a ceasefire and releasing hostages.   
• Arab media sources are more confident a deal can be reached soon. According to Arab media the mediators are discussing a 6-8 week ceasefire, increased aid for the Gaza Strip and rebuilding the Gaza Strip’s health system. Israel would receive a list of the living hostages during the ceasefire, plus a number of bodies whose location Hamas knows. An agreement on the Gaza Strip’s future administration would be postponed to a later stage. According to Egyptian officials the agreement would include IDF troops remaining on the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors and that the issue of the Rafah crossing would be discussed separately by Egypt, Israel and the US.

Looking ahead: Trump’s envoy Witkoff is due to arrive in Doha today. 

• There is speculation over what Trump means with his repeated line that “all hell will break loose” if a hostage deal is not concluded by January 20^th.  This could be concerted military pressure, the reduction of humanitarian aid and or diplomatic pressure brought to bear on Qatar and Turkey, due to their close relations and ideological affinity with Hamas