Memorial Day: Today Israel remembers fallen IDF soldiers and victims of terror attacks.

• To date, 25,040 IDF soldiers have died in Israel’s wars.
• Since October 7th, 716 IDF soldiers and other security personnel have been killed in action. This total includes 8 soldiers killed in the last week.
• Since last Memorial Day, 834 civilians were murdered, bringing the total of Israeli civilians murdered in terror attacks to 5,100. Twelve Israeli civilians had been murdered since last Memorial Day prior to October 7th.
• This morning at 1100 local time, a two-minute memorial siren was heard across the country. The official state ceremony at Mount Herzl was attended by Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Yitzhak Herzog, Knesset Speaker Ohana and the heads of the security forces.

Gaza Strip: Since the weekend, the IDF has been operating across the Gaza Strip in the south, centre and north. The IDF says it has struck 150 targets across the Strip in the last day.

• On Sunday, the IDF expanded its precise operation against Hamas in Eastern Rafah. The IDF announced, “since the start of our precise operation against Hamas in Rafah we have eliminated dozens of terrorists, exposed underground terror tunnels and vast amounts of weapons. Prior to our operations we urge civilians to temporarily move towards humanitarian areas and move away from the crossfire that Hamas puts them in.”
• Four months after the IDF gained control over Jabalya, the second-largest city in the northern Gaza Strip, the IDF has returned after Hamas reconstituted its military position close to the Israeli border.
• As a clear sign of Hamas’s remaining capabilities, they have fired over 20 rockets in the last 24 hours aimed towards Sderot Ashkelon and Beer Sheva. Most were intercepted or landed in open areas, but one rocket directly struck a building in Ashkelon, slightly wounding three people and causing extensive damage to an apartment.
• At least five more rockets were fired from Rafah at the Humanitarian Aid crossing at Kerem Shalom, all of which were either intercepted or landed in open areas.
• The IDF has also been operating in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood. At the onset, the IDF called on the local population of more than 100,000 people to leave. This is because of the familiar Hamas approach of embedding themselves within the civilian population, where they had renewed their military control.

Humanitarian assistance: On Sunday, the IDF announced the opening of the ‘Western Erez’ Crossing in the northern Gaza strip, emphasising it was done in coordination with the US government.

• The ID noted this crossing “is part of the effort to increase aid routes to the Gaza Strip, and to the northern Gaza Strip in particular… Dozens of trucks of flour were coordinated from the Port of Ashdod on behalf of the World Food Programme organisation after undergoing security checks.”
• Ahead of the (so far) limited operation in Rafah, Israel facilitated the entry of tens of thousands of tents provided by the UAE and others for Palestinians leaving Rafah towards Khan Yunis.
• On Friday, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) announced the transfer of 200,000 litres of fuel, “transferred to address the ongoing and essential requirements of the international community, including hospitals, humanitarian areas, logistical centres and the distribution of Humanitarian Aid.”
• On Saturday, a new field hospital was set up in central Gaza. According to the IDF, “the establishment of the hospital was coordinated and enabled through the entry of medical workers and medical equipment, including medicines, beds, food, water, tents, first aid equipment, ventilators, and materials for the construction of the field hospital… The field hospital will be operated by 150 international medical aid workers, and its dozens of beds can be used for emergency and routine medical treatment.”
• The IDF noted, “the hospital joins seven other field hospitals that have been established in the Gaza Strip since the start of the war. It is located in the area of Deir al-Balah, which serves to provide Humanitarian Aid to the Gazan residents temporarily evacuated from the eastern Rafah area. As part of the humanitarian measures to facilitate the temporary evacuation of civilians from the eastern Rafah area, some of the existing field hospitals were transferred to the expanded Humanitarian Area in Al-Mawasi in coordination with the international community, where there is an increased supply of tents, food, water, and medicine.”

Cameron rejects arms embargo: while reiterating the UK’s opposition to the operation in Rafah, Foreign Secretary Cameron yesterday told Sky News that a UK arms embargo would “strengthen Hamas”.

• Comparing the UK’s minor role as a weapons supplier to Israel with that of the US, Cameron said: “The United States is a massive bulk state supplier of weapons to Israel… The UK provides less than 1 percent of Israel’s weapons and is not a state supplier. We have a licensing system and those licences can be closed if it’s judged there’s a serious risk of a serious international human rights violation.”
• He reminded viewers that the last time there had been pressure on the UK Government to consider an embargo, “a few days later there was a massive Iranian attack on Israel, including 140 cruise missiles. So I don’t think it would have been a wise path.”
• “If I announced that today,” he continued, “it might help me get through this television interview, but actually it would strengthen Hamas. It would weaken Israel.”

Context: The mood in Israel is particularly sombre today as Israel marks the traditional annual Memorial Day, whilst still in active combat across Gaza and in the north and with 132 hostages having remained in Hamas captivity for 219 days.

• In the north, two IDF reservists were killed by a kamikaze drone strike at an army position near Metula last week, while a third was killed in a separate attack. The IDF responded with airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon,
• In Gaza, a disturbing pattern has repeated itself: once the IDF leaves a combat zone, Hamas fighters have been able to return, regroup and reestablish control.
• This is placing extra pressure on the political leadership to decide who will manage Gaza ‘the day after’.
• Yossi Yehoshua, in Yediot Ahronot, spelt out the concern, writing “military officials have said that a decision has to be made about the regime that will take the reins in Gaza in the future. Security  officials have said that no one wants Hamas. As such, the options remaining are either the Palestinian Authority or moderate forces in the Gaza Strip that enjoy the support of Arab countries. The third option, one of an Israeli military administration, is untenable…”
• Meanwhile, efforts are still underway to reach an agreement for the release of hostages and a ceasefire. Despite hopes that Hamas had ‘agreed’, significant gaps remain:
  • Hamas cannot guarantee how many of the 33 female soldiers, sick and elderly are still alive.
  • Hamas refusing Israel’s insistence to have a veto over certain heavyweight terrorists that will be released in exchange.
  • The sequencing of the deal: how may hostages will be released after how many days.
  • Hamas are also seeking a longer pause: 12 weeks as opposed to 6 in an effort to end the fighting completely – something Israel will only consider for the release of all the hostages.
• Hamas continues its psychological warfare, releasing another hostage video, the third in a month.
• In Rafah, Israel is thus far limiting its operations to pinpoint missions. Concern for the safety of any hostages being held in Rafah, along with the over one million civilians, is allied to a desire to reduce tensions with Egypt which have been inflamed over Cairo’s opposition to any operation in Rafah.

Looking ahead: One of Israel’s most immediate diplomatic priorities will be maintaining ties with Cairo and securing Egyptian cooperation for ongoing operations in Rafah and elsewhere in the Gaza Strip.

• There will likely be diplomatic fallout from Cairo’s decision to support South Africa’s case against Israel at the ICJ (see Israeli Media Summary below).
• Egypt’s opposition to an operation in Rafah, like that of other Arab states, has implications for the Arab world’s involvement in the ‘day after’ in Gaza and will require delicate handling

What’s happened: As Israel seeks to ascertain whether Hamas is serious about a hostage deal, troops have continued to carry out focused operations against Hamas targets in eastern Rafah.

• In a statement the IDF said that “in the context of the operations, the troops gained operational control over the Gazan side of the Rafah border crossing in response to intelligence about the use made by terrorists of the crossing for terrorist purposes.”
• Defence Minister Gallant said, “The operation in Rafah will not stop until Hamas is eliminated, or until the first hostage returns to Israel.” Minister Benny Gantz said that “at any stage where we can reach a plan for the return of our hostages, we will do so.”
• An Israeli delegation arrived in Cairo to continue talks towards an agreement for a cease-fire. Also in Cairo are delegations from the US, Qatar and Hamas.
• In a statement, PM Netanyahu claimed Hamas’ ceasefire proposal was “intended to torpedo the entry of our forces into Rafah.” Netanyahu added that the purpose of the Rafah operation is to bring back the hostages and eliminate Hamas. Israel has “already proved in the previous hostage release [that] military pressure on Hamas is a precondition for the return of the hostages.”
• The Kerem Shalom border crossing between Israel and Gaza reopened to Humanitarian Aid this morning. The crossing had been closed since Sunday, when a nearby rocket attack killed four Israeli soldiers.
• A senior US official confirmed that last week the US delayed a shipment of two kinds of bombs to Israel because of its opposition to a major ground operation in Rafah and the concern about the destruction that heavy bombs might cause in a dense urban area.
• The IDF intercepted a suspicious aircraft from the east near Eilat last night with the target intercepted outside of Israel’s borders. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq announced that they had launched a UAV at Eilat.
• Also yesterday US Central Command said that Houthis launched three drones from Yemen over the Gulf of Aden, and that a coalition ship successfully intercepted two of them and the third crashing in the Gulf of Aden.  An anti-ship ballistic missile was later launched over the same area, and no injuries or damage was reported.

Context: Four of Hamas’ remaining battalions are located in Rafah, while the border – referred to as the Philadelphia Corridor – is considered essential to prevent weapons smuggling and future rearmament by Hamas.

• Israel has reportedly committed to the US and Egypt to restrict its operation in Rafah, aiming only to deny Hamas authority over the border crossing – located approximately 2 miles from the city of Rafah – and concentrating on the eastern side of the city.
• Significant differences exist between Israel’s latest negotiation line – described by the US as ‘extremely generous’ – and Hamas’ announced proposal. These include:
  • The contours of the three-phase deal put forward by Israel required the release (within the first 42-days), of 33 living hostages – women, children, elderly or sick. Hamas has said it can only guarantee it has 20 live hostages from among that group and proposes to release 33 hostages, alive or dead.
  • Hamas’ proposal suggests three hostages to be released every seven days rather than three hostages every three days.
  • Hamas want to increased the number of security prisoners to be freed by Israel in exchange for each hostage in the first phase and sought to remove the veto Israel demanded on the release of certain Palestinian security prisoners.
  • The Hamas proposal allows for the return of Gazans back north without security checks required by Israel and changes some specifics on the withdrawal of Israeli troops.

• Israel’s delegation is comprised of lower level officials with a limited mandate to determine whether Hamas’s proposal is a ruse, a proposal that was put forward only in hope of placing the onus on Israel, or whether it was a proposal that might allow for progress to be made towards an agreement.
• White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby indicated that the proposal should be viewed as a counterproposal.

Looking ahead: CIA Director William Burns, who held talks in Qatar and in Cairo, will arrive in Israel today and meet with Netanyahu and other senior officials.

• An Israeli official told Kan Radio last night that if there was no change in the approach taken by the mediators and in Hamas’s position, the operation in Rafah would be expanded.
• Israel reportedly intends to involve Palestinians who are not connected to Hamas in administering the Rafah crossing with the goal to have better supervision and monitoring of the aid at the crossing, through which weapons have also passed

What’s happening:  The IDF has begun a precise operation in eastern Rafah, confirming this morning they have “obtained operational control of the Gazan side of the crossing.”

• Ahead of the operation on Sunday morning, messages through flyers, SMS texts, phone calls and media broadcasts were relayed to the residents of eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah to “temporarily evacuate to the expanded humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi, where the IDF has facilitated the expansion of field hospitals, tents, and an increase in water, food, and medical supplies.”
• Compounding the necessity of the operation, on Sunday a barrage of mortars were fired from the area of the Rafah Crossing toward the area of the Kerem Shalom Crossing killing four IDF soldiers and injuring several
• While last night six rockets were fired towards Sderot. Two were intercepted, while four landed in open areas. Shrapnel from an interception fell on a house causing damage, but no injuries.
• Since the launch of this operation, the IDF say they have targeted “military structures, underground infrastructure, and additional terrorist infrastructure from which Hamas operated in the Rafah area. Since the start of the operational activity, approximately 20 terrorists have been eliminated and three operational tunnel shafts have been located. No injuries were reported.”
• Last night the Prime Minister’s Office announced that the War Cabinet, “unanimously decided Israel will continue its operation in Rafah, in order to apply military pressure on Hamas so as to advance the release of our hostages and achieve the other objectives of the war.”
• The unanimity of the War Cabinet, which includes Gantz and Eisenkot, is significant in the context of recent political tension.
• At the same time relating to the hostage negotiations, the War Cabinet stated that “While the Hamas proposal is far from meeting Israel’s core demands, Israel will dispatch a ranking delegation to Egypt in an effort to maximize the possibility of reaching an agreement on terms acceptable to Israel.”
• IDF Spokesperson Hagari added, “We are studying every response, every answer, with the utmost seriousness, and we are exhausting every possibility for negotiation to bring the hostages back to their homes as a central goal, as quickly as possible. At the same time, we are continuing to press forward.”

Context: Rafah hosts four of Hamas’ remaining battalions with the long anticipated operation focused on dismantling its command and control as well as securing the crossing and the Gaza – Egyptian border. The border, referred to as the Philadelphia Corridor is considered essential to prevent weapons smuggling and future rearmament by Hamas.

• Hamas also profits financially from taxation at the crossing and the smuggling routes.
• Regarding efforts to release the hostages, the terms of exactly what Hamas has agreed to remain unclear.  Israel is concerned that this was a Hamas ruse to place blame on Israel. However according to Reuters Hamas has agreed to the Israel proposal without substantive changes.
• Some view the operation in Rafah as a strong lever incentivising Hamas to agree to a deal at the last minute.
• Arab media reports the contours of the deal would include the release of 33 hostages, among them women and children (aged under 19), elderly (over 50), ailing and injured. According to Al-Akhbar, the Lebanese newspaper, “If the number of living Israeli abductees does not reach 33, the number will be completed with corpses from the same categories of this phase. In return – Israel will release all those arrested from the Gaza Strip after October 7 (women and children under the age of 19) this must be done in the fifth week of this phase.”
• In return Israel is expected to release 900- 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom will be terrorists convicted of murder. The temporary cessation in fighting will last six weeks and Israel will allow for an expansion of Humanitarian Aid to enter the Strip.
• The second stage would last an additional six weeks and would see arrangements for restoring “sustainable calm” in the Strip implemented before the release of further (alive male) hostages and Palestinian security prisoners.
• In the third stage, the bodies of dead hostages would be released in exchange for the bodies of dead Palestinians. A five-year reconstruction program for the Gaza Strip will also be launched.
• Last week US Secretary of State Blinken described the Israeli offer as, “extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel.”
• Hamas has long insisted on a deal to end the fighting completely. Israel will only counter this suggestion if they can reach an agreement to release all the hostages. It is thought the term “sustainable calm” is satisfactory for both sides.
• If a deal is ultimately agreed, the Rafah military operation will be halted. Netanyahu will then face political pressure from his right-wing cabinet members who see completing this operation as essential for Israel’s war aims.
• The atmosphere in Israel remains fraught. Last night saw large demonstrations by hostages’ families and their supporters. Thousands of people blocked roads in Tel Aviv, whilst hundreds also protested in other areas across the country to plead  / encourage the government to do a deal.
• The northern border has also seen extended fighting. Over the weekend over 100 rockets were fired out of southern Lebanon towards the Galilee and Golan.  The Israel Air Force attacked numerous Hezbollah positions across the border.
• Two soldiers killed when a Hezbollah attack drone struck a military post near Metulla in northern Israel Monday afternoon.
• The Kerem Shalom Crossing was recently reopened in order to expand providing Humanitarian Aid to Gaza. As a result of the mortar fire and the fatalities the crossing was closed.

Looking ahead: Israeli negotiators are heading to Cairo to study the details of the Hamas response.

• Similarly, CIA Director William Burns who was in Qatar (and was expected to visit Israel) will also instead travel to Cairo.
• If the negotiators can reach an understanding Israel’s Security Cabinet will convene and vote on the proposal.

What’s happening: The Israeli negotiators are still waiting for answers from Hamas over the latest iteration of a deal to release some of the hostages.

• Speaking earlier this week in Saudi Arabia, US Secretary of State Blinken described the proposal as “extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel”, adding “the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas.”
• The latest proposal is being presented as an Egyptian initiative, with Israeli consent, aimed at releasing up to 33 hostages in exchange for a six-week pause in fighting.
• The hostages are thought to include women, elderly, and ill hostages and would be exchanged for 30 to 50 terrorists held in Israeli prisons for each hostage.
• Israel has also reportedly agreed to withdraw from the Netzarim corridor that bisects the Strip and to allow residents to return to the northern Gaza.
• However, Hamas are thought to be continuing to demand a permanent ceasefire and an end to the war.
• Israel is only prepared to agree to a temporary ceasefire so that it can still complete the operation in Rafah after the pause.

Threat of the ICC: In parallel there is heightened concern that senior Israeli leaders face the threat of arrest warrants being issued if they were to travel abroad.

• The potential targets for arrest for alleged war crimes could include Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gallant, Chief of Staff Halevi and other Israeli politicians.
• It is unclear how serious this threat it, but Israeli officials are working behind the scenes to prevent this.
• Netanyahu related to this threat yesterday as “an outrage of historic proportions.” He added, “international bodies like the ICC arose in the wake of the Holocaust committed against the Jewish people. They were set up to prevent such horrors, to prevent future genocides. Yet now the International Court is trying to put Israel in the dock. It’s trying to put us in the dock as we defend ourselves against genocidal terrorists and regimes, Iran of course, that openly works to destroy the one and only Jewish state.”
• He noted, “it will also be the first time that a democratic country fighting for its life according to the rules of war is itself accused of war crimes.”
• Adding, “it takes endless measures to prevent civilian casualties, measures that no other army takes. It does so while fighting a terrorist enemy which uses its own civilians as human shields… So, while Hamas shows no care for the lives of Palestinians and steals Humanitarian Aid meant for civilians, Israel is facilitating a surge of humanitarian assistance to Gaza. And we do this to ensure that the Palestinian population’s humanitarian needs are met.”
• “Israel is not even subject to the court’s jurisdiction and it has an independent legal system that rigorously investigates all violations of the law.”
• Netanyahu’s full remarks can be seen here.
• The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Karim Khan visited Israel a few months ago, when he toured the sites of the October 7th massacres and met with released hostages.
• Israeli media has reported that the Prime Minister has asked the hostages forum to intercede on his behalf after they established a repour with Khan.
• It is also thought that Khan would consult with the British government among others before proceeding with a warrant.
• In a separate / related decision the Israeli government has allowed British judges to visit captured Nukhba terrorists held in Israeli prison.

Context: For 207 days, 133 hostages are still being held captive in the Gaza Strip. It is unclear how many remain alive.

• Whilst Israel waits for a response from Hamas, the military remains ready for an operation into Rafah, awaiting a decision by the political echelon.
• An operation in Rafah has been postponed at least twice already due to international pressure from Israel’s allies, but if Hamas does not take the current deal an operation appears inevitable.
• This time, Israel has helped facilitate expanded humanitarian zones with tens of thousands of tents in preparation to move the civilian population from Rafah prior to a military incursion.
• The logic for a Rafah operation remains:
  • To engage, destroy, and dismantle the remaining elements of Hamas’s military structure.
  • To block the smuggling routes from Egypt, which is crucial to preventing the re-armament of the Strip.
  • To continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership which, having evaded Israeli forces elsewhere, are now seemingly underneath Rafah.
  • If Hamas refuses the latest deal, the dwindling hope remains that some hostages could still be rescued.
• These latest indirect talks are being led by the Egyptians instead of the Qataris. Although Israel remains adamant that they will not commit to end the fighting, the Egyptians are proposing to Hamas that if this pause is successful, they can negotiate a second phased release of the remaining hostages in return for a long term ceasefire.
• Netanyahu is also facing increasing domestic political pressure with both the right wing and centrist flanks, pulling him in opposite directions and threatening to dismantle his coalition.
• In addition to political pressure, there have been ongoing public demonstrations from the hostages families and their supporters to conclude a deal.

Looking ahead: US secretary Blinken has arrived in Israel for his ninth visit since the war began, he will meet Prime Minister Netanyahu today and also expected to update him on the potential normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia.

• Blinken is also scheduled to visit the Kerem Shalom crossing and see first-hand the expanded Humanitarian Aid entering into Gaza.