What happened: Hamas has indicated that it intends to release three hostages this Saturday, as called for in the ceasefire agreement. Al-Araby Al Jadeed, a Qatari-owned outlet, quoted Egyptian sources saying that “things headed toward a breakthrough.”

• According to Maariv, Israel had passed a message to mediators that if Hamas stuck to its part of the ceasefire deal this week, Israel would do the same.
• Yesterday too, the US administration seemingly doubled down on its earlier threat with Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Witkoff, warning there would be “a big problem” if Hamas does not free hostages as scheduled by Saturday. “Hamas is a terrorist organisation. They should not be allowed to be part of the government in Gaza. This is an unhealthy situation, they need to go.”
• Defence Minister Katz reiterated his warning to Hamas against delaying the hostage release, saying, “Any ceasefire agreement with Hamas’s murderers is designed to bring about the swift release of the Israeli hostages who are being held in very bad conditions in Gaza and…If Hamas stops releasing the hostages, then there isn’t an agreement and there is war.”
• Katz added, “The new Gaza war will be different in its intensity from the one that preceded the ceasefire, and won’t end without Hamas’s defeat and the release of all the hostages.”
• Earlier this morning The IDF conducted a strike on a vehicle in Jenin, in the northern West Bank. The car was apparently loaded with explosives on its way to carry out an attack.

Lebanon: The staged withdrawal of the IDF from southern Lebanon continues, albeit with delays. According to reports, Israel is hoping to hold on to at least five points beyond the February 18 deadline, so that Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) can prepare to take them over.

• Earlier this week the Israeli Air Force attacked a tunnel in the Bekaa Valley that ran underneath the Syria-Lebanon border and had been used by Hezbollah to transport weapons.
• The tunnel had been struck earlier in the war, but Israeli intelligence discerned attempts to reactivate it.
• According to the terms of the ceasefire, Israel is entitled to act against Hezbollah efforts to rearm and renew smuggling routes.  
• Similarly the IDF have continued to strike Hezbollah weapons depots and rocket launchers.
• Israel hopes that all northern residents will be able to return to their homes by early March. Withdrawing before the LAF can take over key sites risks having them fall into Hezbollah hands.

Context: Earlier this week, Hamas had announced that it would not be releasing any more hostages. In response, both President Trump and the Israeli government demanded the release of all hostages.

• The acquiescence of Israel to a release of three hostages this weekend would indicate that the ceasefire deal is back on, and that the first phase will be carried out in its entirety over the coming weeks.
• However, substantive negotiations on the second phase have not yet begun.
• Israeli media report that the security cabinet did not discuss further steps. Prime Minister Netanyahu was quoted saying, “There is no point in discussing the second phase because it is just a hypothetical issue at the moment.” This suggests that serious negotiations are not underway and will not begin until the present crisis about this week’s hostage release is resolved.
• Newly released hostages have not spoken to the press, but their descriptions of their captivity continue to filter out, bringing both anguish and hope to families of those still held by Hamas.
• Multiple hostage families in Israel have reported that they have received “signs of life” from loved ones in Hamas captivity. This is largely interpreted as meaning that released hostages mentioned having seen them at some point in their captivity. Besides confirmation of life, some of these reports have included details about the condition of specific hostages, often dire and distressing. Many hostages have untreated wounds. They are shackled in dark tunnels, starved, beaten, and tortured. Some have lost as much as half of their body weight.
• Families of the released female spotters described relentless beatings and threats to forcibly convert the young women to Islam and marry them off to local Gazans. The parents of one released spotter related her story of being forced to appear in a video that faked her death. Her captors used makeup and effects to make it look like she had been killed by IDF fire. Another spotter’s family reported that their daughter drank contaminated water and ate donkey feed to survive.
• One of the Thai hostages who was freed last week was undergoing treatment to restore the teeth which were smashed by his Hamas captors with the butt of a rifle.

Looking ahead: US Secretary of State Rubio is expected to make his first visit to Israel and the region this weekend.

• If all sides genuinely back down on the hostage release crisis, a renewal of the war this week will have been averted. However, the first stage of the ceasefire deal is due to shortly end, and the two sides have only about two weeks left to reach an agreement on the second phase.
• Egypt is expected to present a three to five year plan to rebuild Gaza without displacing its residents. The plan will be presented at a summit meeting with leaders from Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the UAE, scheduled for February 27.

What happened: Following a lengthy security cabinet meeting, last night Prime Minister Netanyahu announced, “In light of Hamas’s announcement regarding its decision to violate the agreement and not release our hostages… I instructed the IDF to amass forces inside – and surrounding – the Gaza Strip.” 

• According to a unanimous decision, the cabinet decided, “If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end the IDF will resume intense fighting until the final defeat of Hamas.”
• In accordance with the political echelon the IDF has now deployed additional brigades to the Gaza front and suspended leaves for all soldiers this weekend in preparation for a possible renewal of armed combat.
• In an incident earlier this morning, the IDF struck a drone that was smuggling weapons into Gaza.
• In Washington President Trump met with King Abdullah of Jordan.  Abdullah praised Trump. “With all the challenges that we have in the Middle East, I finally see somebody [who] can take us across the finish line to bring stability, peace and prosperity to all of us in the region.”
• He also offered to absorb 2,000 Gaza children with severe illness for treatment in Jordan.
• Trump once again doubled down on moving people out of Gaza. “We’re moving them to a beautiful location where they’ll have new homes, where they can live safely, where they have doctors and medical and all of those things. It’s going to be great,” he told reporters. 
• Regarding Hamas, Trump said he did not expect them to meet his deadline. “They want to play tough guy, but we’ll see how tough they are. Hamas is bullies. The weakest people are bullies.”

Context: Following the initial announcement the Israeli government has put out multiple, not entirely consistent, statements regarding its position on the terms for upcoming hostage releases. 

• In each statement, it expressed support for Trump’s demands, but ambiguously refereed to “our hostages” leaving it open whether Israel’s demand for a hostage release this Saturday referred to:
  • Three hostages due to be released on Saturday according to the terms of agreement.
  • All nine of the remaining hostages that are alive due to be released in the first phase of the agreement.
  • All of the more than thirty hostages believed to still be alive, including those due to be released in the second phase. 
  • All hostages (alive and dead) still held by Hamas.
• The ambiguity is thought to be deliberate, on one hand to support Trump’s position (which is also unclear) and remain committed to the signed agreement.    
• The next hostage release is scheduled for this coming Saturday. According the ceasefire agreement, there should be three more weeks of hostage-for-prisoner exchanges in the first phase of the agreement, which should see the release of nine more hostages and the bodies of eight more.
• The current confusion and potential collapse of the agreement is a result of two recent statements. Hamas’s announcement that it was delaying the release of hostages as a result of what it falsely claimed were Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement; and President Trump raising the stakes by demanding an immediate release of all hostages by noon Saturday or “all hell will break out.”
• The minor gesture made by Jordan is far from satisfying Trump’s demands. For many observers, this is a confirmation that western countries made no effort to pressure even those Arab regimes that are most closely allied with and dependent on American and Western support.
• The rapidly escalating crisis over the next stage of the hostage release comes at a delicate time in the ceasefire, when the first phase has not been completed and when negotiations for the second phase are supposed to be underway. Israel’s delegation to Doha was, according to reports in the Israeli media, authorised only to discuss “technical” aspects of the deal.
• On the Israeli side, the shock of the poor condition of the hostages released last Saturday has led to calls to speed up the release of the hostages. Hostages recently released have not spoken to the press, but multiple families of other hostages report that they have received “signs of life” and updates on the dire state of their loved ones, an indication that some of the released hostages were in touch with those left behind. This too is creating pressure on the Israeli government to do what it can to get people back as quickly as possible.
• The principal motivation, however, remains the need of the Israeli government to stay in the good graces of President Trump.
• Trump’s threats have yielded a few minor gestures from regional actors, but have not yet fundamentally changed the dynamics of the conflict.
• On the Palestinian side, Hamas was stung by the negative reaction to the sight of emaciated hostages and the theatrical ceremonies of their release. It is concerned about losing its only real asset in the war, the remaining hostages. Moreover, with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Netzarim corridor earlier this week and the return of masses of civilians to the north of the Gaza Strip for the first time in more than a year, it may believe that it has already yielded all the important gains from this phase of the agreement and that it has no real benefit from continuing with the deal.

Looking ahead: On Saturday Hamas either will or will not release hostages, and Israel will have to respond accordingly. Zero released hostages will mean the war begins again. Three will mean that the terms of the ceasefire are unchanged, and this will raise several serious dilemmas for both Netanyahu and Trump. Nine or more will introduce a whole new dynamic to the process as all parties prepare for the second and third phase of the ceasefire agreement’s implementation.

• The Egyptian President is also expected to soon meet with Trump. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced that they intend to present their own comprehensive plan for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip—”that will guarantee that the Palestinian people remains on its land.

What happened: Hamas has threatened to postpone the release of three hostages scheduled for release this coming Saturday. 

• Defence Minister Katz responded angrily and accused Hamas of blatantly violating the agreement. He added, “I have instructed the IDF to maintain the highest level of readiness for any possible scenario in Gaza and to defend Israeli communities. We will not allow a return to the reality of October 7th.”
• As such, the IDF has raised its state of alert, and announced a decision to cancel all leave for combat troops and operational units in the Southern Command. The IDF has also deployed significant defensive reinforcements in the area. 
• Last night there was an alert over a possible infiltration from northern Gaza into Israel. An extensive search was carried out in the Yad Mordechai area. In the end the suspicion was ruled out.
• Following Hamas’ announcement, President Trump weighed in last night saying, all the hostages should be released in the coming days. “They ought to be returned by 12 o’clock on Saturday, and if they’re not returned, all of them, not in dribs and drabs, not two and one and three and four and two, Saturday at 12 o’clock, and after that I would say all hell is going to break out.” 
• Trump added that if this did not happen he would advise cancelling the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, although emphasised that it was ultimately Israel’s decision. He added that he might speak with Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss the issue.
• The president also repeated his assertion that if Egypt and Jordan were to refuse to take in refugees from the Gaza Strip, he would consider suspending American aid to the two countries. 
• Last night, Prime Minister Netanyahu convened a small group of senior ministers and security officials to discuss the hostage deal negotiations. 
• Thousands of people once again demonstrated in Tel Aviv to demand the government act to free all of the hostages. 

Context: Hamas’s threat to derail the talks can be understood as the latest example of the group’s psychological terror as well as an effort to exert pressure in the ensuing negotiations. 

• It is viewed as significant that the announcement came at the beginning of the week, giving negotiators five days to resolve the issues. 
• Hamas already appeared to row back its threat late last night, saying it would remain committed to the agreement as long as Israel would too. 
• Hamas claims that Israel is not honouring its commitment to allow in the agreed upon humanitarian aid. Israel vehemently denies this and says it has kept its side of the agreement in allowing 600 trucks to enter daily. An issue could be a shipment of caravans from Qatar that was apparently blocked. This could be due to the potential of ‘dual usage’ where civilian products could also have military application.
• Hamas also claims that Israel has opened fire on Gazans attempting to move from the south to northern Gaza. According to the agreement, Gazans are free to cross on foot but can only drive vehicles through approved routes that pass through Egyptian / American security checks to ensure they are not returning with weapons. The shooting incidents relate to Gazans using alternative routes that avoid inspection or trying to enter the military buffer zones around the periphery. 
• Trump’s latest pronouncement is difficult to interpret – particularly whether he is really demanding (and expects) all the hostages to be released this weekend and what leverage he has if it (as expected) does not happen.     
• Trump’s repeated threat that ‘all hell is going to break out’ remains undefined. It is highly unlikely to take the form of US military involvement. He could threaten Hamas’s financial reliance on Qatar and Turkey and their investments in those countries, but this also seems unlikely given his envoy Witkoff close personal ties with the Qatari leadership.    
• Ever since the ceasefire deal was signed, there has been concern that as the first stage draws to a close, negotiators will not be able to resolve the sides’ conflicting aims. Israel is thought to be demanding the exiling of Hamas’s leadership that remains in the Strip, and the disarming of their military wing, things that Hamas reject. In return, Israel would announce the end of the war – a statement that could carry a political price for Netanyahu’s coalition. 
• If an agreement cannot be reached about Phase 2, potential bridging proposals have been proposed, that would see an extension of Phase 1 – more Israeli hostages released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners and a further increase in humanitarian aid. 

Pay-to-slay: In a surprising move, Chairman of the Palestinian Authority (PA) Abbas signed a decree cancelling the law that conditioned welfare payments to Palestinian security prisoners commensurate to the length of their sentence (and the severity of their crime).   

• Instead, prisoners and family members of the dead terrorists who are eligible for welfare will now receive funds based solely on their financial needs.
• The move appears to be timed to win favour with the Trump administration. 
• The move was greeted with scepticism on the Israeli side. The Foreign Ministry assesses the announcement, “as a new fraudulent exercise by the PA, which intends to continue making payments to terrorists and their families through other channels.”
• Israel has long insisted that for the PA to be considered a legitimate partner, they need to end the pay-to-slay policy, end anti-Israel and antisemitic content in their educational syllabus and media, and end their campaign of international lawfare – using international institutions to delegitimise Israel.

Looking ahead: The Israeli security cabinet is expected to convene today and set the parameters for the negotiations over the second phase of the hostage deal. 

• Israeli officials are hopeful that this latest crisis will be resolved before the weekend.

What’s happened: The three hostages Or Levy, Eli Sharabi and Ohad Ben Ami that were released on Saturday morning appeared emaciated, with shaved heads and sunken eyes, resembling images from the past. 

• Details of their experience in captivity are being revealed as Hamas had tortured and abused them, physically and psychologically. They said that they had been treated viciously and violently.  
• All three were held in tunnels, starved, and suffered difficulty breathing. Or Levy and Eli Sharabi were held together throughout their captivity. Ohad Ben Ami only joined them on Friday evening. 
• Speaking to Kan News the deputy director of Ichilov Hospital, Prof. Gil Fire, reported on Ohad Ben Ami’s condition, saying: “He lost a lot of his body weight. The health ramifications from prolonged captivity under horrific conditions will be studied by us in the coming days and hours. That said, it needs to be stressed that we met a man strong in spirit, a man who inspires, accompanied by a strong and supportive family.”
• In parallel, according to the terms of the agreement the IDF has now withdrawn entirely from the Netzarim Corridor that divided the Strip. 
• The withdrawal means that Palestinians can now move freely throughout the Gaza Strip.
• The IDF remains deployed in a buffer zone along the perimeter and on the Philadelphi Corridor bordering Egypt.
• Over the weekend there were several attempts to enter the buffer zone. For example a group of dozens of Hamas supporters approached are area adjacent to Kibbutz Nahal Oz, IDF forces initially fired warning shots, before reportedly hitting several suspects. In Khan Yunis a woman was reportedly killed when she ran towards IDF positions. The IDF once more issued warnings to avoid approaching the areas where troops are still deployed.  
• Having retuned yesterday from the US, Prime Minister Netanyahu related to these incidents, “My directive this evening – nobody reaches the perimeter fence or penetrates it. This is part of the agreement which we will enforce, and will enforce vigorously. We expect Hamas to meet all of its commitments and this is one of them.”
• Netanyahu relayed his achievements in Washington, “that can ensure the security of Israel for generations.” Adding, “I am not exaggerating. There are opportunities for possibilities that I think we never dreamed of, or at least a few months ago they did not seem possible – but they are possible.”
• He said, “President Trump commended all of our achievements, especially the breaking of the Iranian axis.” Netanyahu added. “We agreed that all of the objectives that we set for the war must be completed: The elimination of Hamas, the return of all of our hostages, ensuring that Gaza never again constitutes a threat to Israel, returning all of the residents in both north and south, and, of course, preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons.”

Context: Once again Hamas are exploiting the attention garnered around the hostages released to display a show of force, for the Palestinian audience, the Israelis and the wider region. This was evident once more at the release ‘ceremony’.   

• In an overt message to the Israeli audience that Hamas remains in control, the banners on the stage said “total victory” and “we are the day after” in Hebrew. It’s not clear if these were smuggled in or if there are still functioning printing presses inside Gaza.  
• Hamas also carefully choose the venue, this time in Deir el-Balah, one of the few areas that the IDF did not enter primarily due to the fear of hostages being kept in close proximity. 
• Israeli media reports that in Deir el-Balah life continued normally during the war. The markets, even restaurants were open, and food, goods and other items were delivered there with Israeli permission. 
• Hamas also displayed several new pickup trucks, one of the symbols of the October 7 massacre, with hundreds of armed operatives and military accessories, some of them weapons taken from Israel on October 7^th.
• According to the testimonies of the three hostages released this weekend, they were deliberately starved and received a single stale pita every few days, which they were forced to share with other hostages. Their captors denied them water for several consecutive days.
• The three hostages were taken individually for interrogation, in the course of which they were subjected to severe torture. Hamas operatives strangled them, hung them from their feet and burned their flesh. 
• The hostages were held in a small room inside a tunnel. They were unable to stand up straight and had difficulty breathing. Shortly before their release, their captors slightly increased the quantities of food they were given so that they would be strong enough to stand on their own feet on the day they were released.
• In an interview on the BBC’s Sunday Morning Newswith Laura Kuenssberg, President Herzog fiercely criticised the BBC for its continued false equivalence between the treatment of convicted Hamas terrorists and innocent Israeli hostages abducted into Gaza. Herzog said, “I think that this equality that the BBC is always trying to make is outrageous and preposterous, absolutely not true. We are a democracy. We abide by the rule of law. All prisoners in Israel get whatever is necessary as prisoners under the law, under the supervision of the court, even a Supreme Court justice recently visited the prisons. And not only that, some of the [Palestinian] prisoners didn’t want to leave. They didn’t want to go back to Gaza. They preferred staying in the Israeli prisons.” 
• Herzog also related to President Trump’s plan recognising the importance of fresh perspectives on resolving the conflict. Herzog said, “We have to look for new ideas. And I believe that after he met with Prime Minister Netanyahu, now President Trump will meet with President El-Sisi of Egypt, with King Abdullah of Jordan. I’m sure that they will have to express their views on the issue, and of course, they are our partners in peace processes, including the Abraham Accords partners, we’ll hear all of them, and we’ll have to find a right way to make sure that what happened will not recur again, meaning that Hamas cannot rule Gaza anymore.”

Looking ahead: The Israeli delegation has now arrived in Qatar to discuss remaining technical details of the first stage of the agreement. 

• Negotiations over the second stage will only begin once the security cabinet convenes (expected to be tomorrow) to agree on the bandwidth of a potential agreement. 
• King Abdullah of Jordan is meeting UK officials in London before travelling on to the US to meet President Trump.
• Seventy six hostages remain in captivity, around half are whom are thought to be alive but kept in similarly horrific condition as those recently released. Nine more hostages and the bodies of a further eight are expected to be released as part of the first stage of the deal.

What happened: Three female hostages were freed yesterday after 471 days in Hamas captivity.

• This was the first stage of the first phase that also saw 90 Palestinian prisoners released as part of the deal.
• Dual British – Israeli Emily Damari (28) and Doron Steinbrecher (31) were both taken from their homes on Kibbutz Kfar Aza on October 7th 2023, whilst Romi Gonen (24) was kidnapped from the Nova music festival.
• Hamas had previously delayed the release of their names, but by Sunday afternoon had handed them over to the Red Cross inside Gaza who in turn handed them over the IDF.
• All three were reunited with their mothers and then transported by helicopter to Sheba Hospital where they met more family members.
• According to the head of the Sheba Hospital Dr. Yael Frankel-Nir their medical condition allowed for the focus to be placed on reuniting them with their families.
• Prime Minister Starmer said, “The release of three hostages today is wonderful and long-overdue news after months of agony for them and their families. Among them is British citizen Emily Damari…However, today also represents another day of suffering for those who haven’t made it home yet – so while this ceasefire deal should be welcomed, we must not forget about those who remain in captivity under Hamas.”
• Foreign Secretary Lammy added, “Our thoughts are also with those still waiting to be reunited with their loved ones, including the families of UK linked hostages Eli Sharabi, Oded Lifshitz and Avinatan Or.”
• Outgoing President Biden said of the deal, “This is the exact framework of the deal I proposed back in May — exact — and we got the world to endorse it. Secondly, it’s America’s support for Israel that helped them badly weaken Hamas and its backers and create the conditions for this deal. And thirdly, I knew this deal would have to be implemented by the next team, so I told my team to coordinate closely with the incoming team to make sure we’re all speaking with the same voice, because that’s what American presidents do.”
• Following the release of the three women, 90 Palestinian security prisoners were also released. 
• 78 were taken to the West Bank town of Beitunia, where they were greeted by a cheering crowd e including flag of Hamas, Fatah, Islamic Jihad and even Hezbollah.
• The remaining 12 East Jerusalem residents were transported and released back in Jerusalem.  
• Earlier on Sunday the IDF announced the retrieval of the body of fallen IDF soldier Oren Shaul, whose body had been held by Hamas since 2014. 
• The head of COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories) Maj. Gen. Ghassan Aliyan met yesterday with the family of Oron Shaul. Aliyan was the commander of the Golani Brigade in 2014 when Shaul was killed during Operative Protective Edge. 

Context: The release of the three women was greeted with jubilation across Israel, with a large crowd following events on a large screen in hostage square in central Tel Aviv.

• Having been shot in the hand and suffering shrapnel in her leg, Emily Damari was taken by terrorists from her home in Kfar Azza on October 7, blindfolded, and driven (in her own car) to Gaza. She was seen yesterday appearing to be missing two fingers.
• Doron Steinbrecher, a veterinary nurse, was also taken from her home on the Kibbutz.
• Romi Gonen, from Kfar Vradim in northern Israel, was taken hostage from the music festival. She was also shot in her hand while trying to escape.
• Alongside the celebration, for many Israelis this is was a bittersweet moment. Beyond the first emotion of relief and joy to see three Israelis hostages released alive there was also several factors to diminish the celebrations.
• There was general unease at the sight of their handover to the Red Cross in which the captives were surrounded by a mob, including uniformed Hamas fighters who climbed atop the Red Cross vehicle.  This angered Israeli officials who said it must never be allowed to recur. Israel intends to inform the mediators that it views that behaviour as unacceptable.
• The symbolic show of strength by Hamas – even if staged – confirms that they remain in control of the Gaza Strip and are likely to take advantage of the ceasefire and further strengthen their position.
• In parallel to the release an extended amount of humanitarian aid has started to enter Gaza.  This process will be overseen by Hamas, further consolidating their control.
• The 90 Palestinian prisoners released in this round were considered relatively ‘lightweight’.  Among those released were: Mahmoud Aliowat, now 15 (the youngest of the Palestinian prisoners released). He was convicted as a 13-year-old of carrying out a shooting attack which wounding two people. The list also included Khalida Jarrar, 62, a leading member of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). He was considered responsible for setting an explosive device that killed 17-year-old Rina Shnerb at a spring in the West Bank. Another released East Jerusalemite, Nawal Abed Fatiha, stabbed a 70-year-old Israeli man with a knife in Jerusalem in 2020. 
• The government maintains that it is prepared to continue the fighting with support of the US. Reflecting on the deal, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Both President Trump and President Biden gave full backing to Israel’s right to resume the fighting if Israel reaches the conclusion that the negotiations on the second stage are futile,” Netanyahu said. “I very much appreciate this. I also appreciate President Trump’s decision to remove all the remaining restrictions on the supply of vital weapons and vital munitions to the State of Israel. If we have to resume the fighting, we will do this in new ways and we will do this with very great might.”

Looking ahead: The initial stage of the hostage deal is expected to last for six weeks. Each week three or four hostages are due to be released, until the final two weeks in which the remaining hostages will return home. It remains unclear how many of the 33 hostages due to be released in this phase are alive.

After an earlier delay, due to Hamas delaying the list of names of Israeli hostages due to be released that they had agreed to provide, the ceasefire is underway. The three hostages set to be released have been named as: Emily Damari, Doron Steinbrecher and Romi Gonen.

Defense Minister Israel Katz says Israel will not end the war in the Gaza Strip until all the hostages held by Hamas are returned. “We will not stop the war until everyone returns home,” he says during a visit to an army facility on the Gaza border where released hostages will receive initial treatment. “I came to make sure that the IDF is prepared to protect the communities and soldiers against any attack… even during the ceasefire,” Katz says. The defense minister also vows that the military will stay in a buffer zone along the Gaza border, and “will respond strongly to any violation and threat.”

What’s happened: Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani announced at a press conference in Doha on Wednesday night that a ceasefire and hostage-release agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas.

• The Israeli delegation, led by Mossad Director Barnea, remains in Doha in order to conclude the final details and to finalise the list of hostages to be released.
• This morning, Prime Minister Netanyahu raised concerns by releasing a statement saying, “Hamas has reneged on parts of the agreement reached with the mediators and Israel in an effort to extort last-minute concessions. The Israeli Cabinet will not convene until the mediators notify Israel that Hamas has accepted all elements of the agreement.”

Details of the deal: The agreement will secure the release of 33 hostages in the first stage, which will last 42 days. 

• The hostages to be freed in the first stage include women civilians, female soldiers, wounded hostages and male civilians over the age of 50. Most of the hostages are alive.
• Three hostages are to be released on the first day of the deal. Another four will be released on the seventh day. Thereafter, three hostages will be released every week. The living hostages will be released before the dead.
• On the seventh day, after seven Israeli hostages have been freed, Israel will carry out its first withdrawal, and residents of the northern Gaza Strip will be allowed to return to their homes. Cars will be allowed to travel north of the Netzarim Corridor after undergoing inspection (though details of the inspection mechanism remain unclear). 
• Israel will release roughly 1,000 terrorists in exchange for the hostages. Nukhba terrorists will not be released in the deal. Terrorists from the Gaza Strip will return to the Gaza Strip. Murderers from the West Bank will be exiled overseas, but those who were not convicted of murder will be allowed to return to their homes.
• In addition to the terrorists who will be released, Israel will also release 1,000 Gazans arrested since October 8th who were not directly involved in the Hamas attacks on October 7th.
• Negotiations over the second stage of the deal are to begin on the 16th day of the agreement’s implementation. The remaining hostages—men under the age of 50, male soldiers and dead bodies—are to be released in the second stage of the deal.
• During the sixth week of the ceasefire, Hamas is supposed to release two civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who both entered Gaza back in 2014 and 2015 respectively and have been held by Hamas since then. Both are considered to be suffering from mental illnesses.
• Fifty wounded Hamas members per day will be allowed to enter Egypt through the Rafah Crossing. Each one must be approved by Israel and Egypt. Similarly, wounded civilians will be permitted to leave Gaza through the Rafah Crossing.
• Israel will allow 600 trucks transporting humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip every day. This is more than double the current daily average.
• During the 42-day ceasefire Israel will retain a 700 metre security zone inside Gaza, except for several specified places where Israel will be allowed to remain 1,000 meters inside the Strip.
• The IDF will gradually withdraw, including from the Philadelphi Corridor, in keeping with the maps and agreements. The IDF will withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor by the 50th day.

Reactions to the deal: President Herzog welcomed the agreement. He said, “This is the right course of action, this is an important course of action, this is an essential course of action. There is no moral and human, Jewish and Israeli duty greater than bringing back to us our sisters and brothers.” 

• Following the announcement President Biden, appeared to back the Israeli narrative saying, “We reached this point because of the pressure Israel built on Hamas backed by the United States.” 
• “Hamas’ leader Sinwar was killed. Hamas’ strongest supporter Iran’s attacks on Israel failed because of the coalition my administration organised to stop them. We organised US ships and planes to come to Israel’s defence. We organised a coalition of 20 countries to stand up to Houthis including against their attacks on Israel. Hezbollah another of Hamas’ strongest backers was significantly weakened on the battlefield, their leadership was destroyed with our support Israel.”
• President-elect Trump emphasised his team would, “make sure Gaza NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven”
• Prime Minister Starmer noted, “This is the long-overdue news that the Israeli and Palestinian people have desperately been waiting for….our attention must turn to how we secure a permanently better future for the Israeli and Palestinian people, grounded in a two-state solution that will guarantee security and stability for Israel, alongside a sovereign and viable Palestine state.”
• Leader of the Opposition Lapid said, “The entire country isn’t breathing tonight. We are all waiting and we are all praying, like [Joseph] in the Book of Genesis, ‘I seek my brothers.’  We must not stop now. The deal must not end with its first part. I promise, as I’ve promised before, a safety net until the last moment, until the last hostage. They all need to return home.”

Context: The deal appears to closely resemble previous iterations of similar efforts to reach a ceasefire going back to May 2024.

• The agreement was successfully overseen by both the Biden and Trump teams, who appeared to be well coordinated. Whilst Biden’s administration can be credited with the genesis of the text, many are crediting Trump with adding vital pressure to all parties to conclude a deal prior to his inauguration. 
• Noting the IDF’s successes, President Biden last night spoke of the US role that, “helped to shape changed the equation so now the terror network that protected and sustained Hamas is far weaker, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades, Hezbollah is badly degraded and after 15 months of war Hamas’ senior leaders are dead, thousands of Hamas’ fighters are dead and their military formations have been destroyed. With nowhere to turn Hamas finally agreed to releasing hostages.” 
• Biden went on to say, “The war transformed the Middle East, our friends are strong our enemies are weak. There is a genuine opportunity for a new future. In Lebanon an opportunity for a future free from the grip of Hezbollah, in Syria free from the Assad tyranny, for Palestinians a pathway to a state, and for the region a future of normalisation integration of Israel and all its Arab neighbours including Saudi Arabia.” 
• The deal is expected to be ratified by a large majority of the security cabinet and the cabinet, despite the objections of the Religious Zionist Party and Jewish Power. It remains to be seen if either party will leave the government over the deal. 
• After the vote, the Cabinet Secretariat will announce the names of the Palestinian prisoners to be released in order to allow the public to petition the High Court of Justice to block the releases. 
• In the previous deal, the public had 10 hours to file appeals, with the court ruling that the deal was in the wider public interest.
• The precise timetable also depends on Hamas’s ability to retrieve the hostages in time.    

Looking ahead: The security cabinet and full cabinet are expected to meet later today and ratify the agreement. 

• The implementation of the deal is expected to begin this Sunday (19th January).
• The IDF are setting up a compound close to Gaza that will be used to receive the released hostages and reunite them with their families. 
• Preparations are also being made to receive wounded hostages who will be swiftly evacuation to hospitals.
• In part of their conversation, Trump and Netanyahu agreed to meet soon in Washington.