What’s happening: US and Iranian officials are set to begin a second round of talks today in Geneva in an effort to reach a deal that would avert a US military offensive on Iran. Geneva is also the site of US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia, which are also set to begin today.

• Both Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to take part in negotiations today.Yesterday, the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi met in Geneva with the foreign minister of Oman, the country that hosted the previous round of talks.
• President Trump said he would be indirectly involved in the negotiations. “and they’ll be very important” Trump called the Iranians “tough negotiators,” and said he hoped “they’re going to be more reasonable.” “I think they want to make a deal. I don’t think they want the consequences of not making a deal.”
• Speaking at the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organisations, Prime Minister Netanyahu said of his meetings with Trump days before, “I will not hide from you that I express my skepticism of any deal with Iran, because, frankly, Iran is reliable on one thing, they lie and they cheat.” He went on to say that Israel could support a potential deal as long as it met five conditions:
  • All enriched material has to leave Iran.
  • No enrichment capability in Iran, including the dismantling of existing equipment.
  • A limitation on ballistic missile range to 300 kilometres, in line with the 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime.
  • Dismantling Iran’s regional proxy network.
  • A strict inspection regime.
• Netanyahu did not indicate in his speech if President Trump agreed with him on the conditions for a deal with Iran and there were reports this morning that the Iranians had preconditioned their arrival in Geneva on the promise that the talks would focus only on the nuclear issue.

Context: If the reports on the Iranian conditions are true, it would leave at least two of Israel’s conditions for supporting a deal unanswered. Moreover, according to Iranian sources, the Iranians also insisted on a guarantee that they would retain some enrichment capability. If these Iranian claims are true, that would mean that three out of five of Israel’s minimal conditions for a deal are already off the table before the talks have even begun.

• As talks renew, the US military presence in the region continues to increase. Media reports yesterday indicated that the USS Gerald Ford, the largest warship of any kind in the world, was on its way to the region from the Caribbean.
• Once there, it will join the USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier already near Iran, and its entire strike group, including three guided missile destroyers. These were most recently spotted off the coast of Oman, some 700 km from Iran.
• Closer still to Iran are two US destroyers and three smaller ships off the coast of Bahrain.
• Meanwhile, the US has positioned F-15 and EA-18  jets in Muwaffaq Salti military base in Jordan, and a steady stream of refuelling jets have been moved to bases throughout the region over the course of the last few weeks.
• The volume of hardware positioned around Iran far exceeds that which was arrayed around Venezuela before the US operation there earlier this winter, or, for that matter, what was positioned around Iran before Operation Midnight Hammer last June.
• The Iranians, for their part, are also mobilising forces. Yesterday, the IRGC navy held war games exercises in the Straits of Hormuz. Analysts surmise that the intended audience of the exercise is not just the United States, whose attack would be unaffected by a successful Iranian blockade of the Straits, but rather US allies in the Gulf and elsewhere, whose economies and energy supply would be seriously harmed by such a move.

Looking ahead: US Senator Lindsey Graham, considered close to President Trump on foreign policy matters, said in Israel yesterday that the administration was “weeks, not months away from a decision on Iran.”

What’s happening: Prime Minister Netanyahu will set out tomorrow for Washington to meet President Trump for discussions on the Iran negotiations and the possibility of US military action in Iran.

• The announcement of a meeting between the two leaders this week came as a surprise, as Netanyahu was initially not expected in Washington until mid-February, when Trump will launch his Board of Peace. The earlier date is likely the reason that Israel’s security cabinet meeting was moved up from this Sunday to last Thursday.
• Multiple reports in Israeli media noted that the Prime Minister would be accompanied by Brig. Gen. Omer Tischler, who is slated to be the next commander of the Israeli Air Force. This was interpreted by all observers as a sign of tight coordination in planning for a military operation against Iran, should the President ultimately decide that this is the course of action he prefers.
• A round of talks held last Friday in Muscat, Oman, did not yield any agreement except to continue talks. Despite hints in the week before the Muscat talks that Iran was willing to make significant concessions on uranium enrichment as a means to bid off pressure on other issues seen as more crucial to regime survival, at the talks themselves, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi refused to accept any end to enrichment and refused as well to agree to the offshoring of Iran’s existing stock of enriched uranium.
• The Muscat talks were the first meeting of any kind between US and Iranian officials since the Twelve Day War last June. And, in fact, they were not a direct meeting at all, with US and Iranian negotiators passing messages to each other via Omani diplomats.
• While tensions escalate, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to avoid making any public appearances that might make him a target for attack. An Iranian Air Force event held every year on February 8 and attended by the Supreme Leader every year for the last 37 years was held yesterday without him out of fears that it would be too tempting a target for Iran’s enemies.

Context: Four issues are at stake in the US-Iran standoff, though in many cases the pursuit of each is at cross purposes with that of the others. Those four issues are the Iranian nuclear programme, the ballistic missile programme, Iran’s regional proxies, and the regime’s brutal crackdown on protesters in December and January.

• Iranian statements since the Muscat meeting have indicated that only the nuclear issue was discussed, and no US statements have directly contradicted that. Tump, for his part, called the talks “very good” and told reporters that Iran “wants to make a deal very badly.”
• Reports in both US and Israeli media indicate a distinct lack of enthusiasm from the White House regarding a US strike against Iran, especially as it remains unclear if such an attack could really lead to the regime collapsing. The US is quite keen, however, to leverage the threat of a strike to yield concessions from the Iranians on other pressing issues.
• The anti-regime protests and the regime’s brutal crackdown are what invested the recent US moves with a certain urgency. This urgency is decidedly attenuated in Israel, where Iran’s nuclear programme is still seen as crippled since the Twelve Day War, and its ballistic missile programme similarly understood to be set back.
• Anonymous leaks in Israeli media suggest a general scepticism in Jerusalem regarding both Witkoff and Kushner, and a decided preference for Secretaries Rubio and Hegseth — both widely seen as Iran hawks and both sidelined for now as the US seeks the appearance of giving negotiations a chance.

Looking ahead: The deadliest night of the Iran uprising was January 8-9. This week will see the end of the traditional month-long mourning period for the dead, estimated in the tens of thousands.

• Analysts expect that the end of the mourning period could herald a renewed period of protests in the country, with reports that merchants from the Grand Bazaar are organising a general strike to begin later this week.
• More violence in Iran coming at a time when both the US and Iran are focusing negotiations on Iranian geostrategic issues rather than internal ones could potentially refocus the confrontation on the issue that brought Trump to threaten force to begin with — and to promise that “help is on its way.”

What’s happening: US and Iranian representatives will meet as scheduled in Oman for talks tomorrow, after reports yesterday suggested that the talks had been cancelled.

• A Trump administration official told the Associated Press that several Arab and Muslim leaders had urged the administration not to walk away from talks even though Iranian officials had pressed to narrow their scope. According to the report, the White House is sceptical about the prospects of the talks’ success.
• President Trump told NBC that Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei “should be very worried,” but added that the Iranians are “negotiating with us.”

Context: It remains the case that the US are looking to exhaust diplomatic channels, primarily to garner international legitimacy before resorting to military strikes.

• US Secretary of State Rubio, appears to hold the same view as Israel, that there are four issues that need to be on the agenda. On Thursday, Rubio reiterated, “I think in order for talks to actually lead to something meaningful they will have to include certain things, and that includes the range of their ballistic missile. That includes their sponsorship of terrorist organisations across the region. That includes the nuclear programme. And that includes the treatment of their own people.” As it currently stands the Iranians are only willing to discuss the nuclear file.  
• Vice President Vance has warned of the risks of nuclear proliferation across the Middle East if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons. He also highlighted the unique difficulties of dealing with Iran. Whereas with Russia and China President Trump can have direct conversations with their leaders, this is not possible with Iran’s Supreme Leader. Vance added that President Trump was trying to achieve his objectives through diplomacy, but would take military action if he felt that was the only way possible.
• The US continues its force build up sending even more military aircraft to the region.
• For further context, see our briefings from earlier this week:
  • Israel braces for Iran escalation, Thursday, February 4
  • US Envoy Witkoff to arrive in Israel, Wednesday, February 3

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet, which was scheduled to convene on Sunday, has been moved up to Thursday afternoon.

What’s happened: As diplomatic attention focuses on upcoming negotiations between Iran the US this weekend, in Israel there is an increasing consensus that a US operation in Iran is inevitable.

• Leaks to that effect to local media followed the meeting yesterday between senior Israeli officials, including the Prime Minister, and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.
• That meeting lasted three and a half hours, and no details from what was discussed were publicly reported.
• With the US “armada” largely in place in the Gulf region, two minor incidents demonstrated the high level or alert on all sides yesterday. An Iranian drone  flying towards the  aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was downed by a F-35 fighter jet. And there were murky reports of an IRGC speedboat intercepted by the US forces as well.
• The IDF’s Home Front Command held a large exercise at its Zikim base, near the Gaza border. The exercise simulated a massive missile strike on a large population area, with wounded people trapped in collapsed towers and rubble. The exercise was both an implementation of lessons learned from last years Twelve Day War with Iran and preparation for the possibility of an imminent war following upon a expected US offensive against the Islamic regime.

Context: From the US perspective, there are four pressing issues in the Iran file: the nuclear programme, the ballistic missile programme, Iran’s regional proxies, and the regime’s violent crackdown on protesters earlier this winter.

• It was the last issue that prompted the escalation in the US military presence as well as Trump’s threat to initiate military action against Iran. But it is also this last issue which doesn’t seem to be on the table in any way in the upcoming negotiations between the two countries.
• The threat to topple the regime could yield concessions on other issues which are a priority for the US and its regional allies, but that would mean abandoning President’s Trump “help is on its way” pledge. Israeli analysts are sceptical that Trump will ultimately be willing to do this.
• Even on the first three issues, there is no guarantee that there is a genuine willingness for give and take on all equally. The US and Iran are mostly focussed on the first — the nuclear programme. Israeli analysts believe Iran will not consider any real concessions on Iran’s proxy forces, as this too would, in the Iranian perspective, put the regime’s survivability in question.
• Regarding the first issue, the current US position is a demand to completely halt the nuclear programme and ship Iran’s stock of enriched uranium, estimated at some 450 kg, out of the country (presumably to Russia). It is not known definitively where this stock is or if, following the US bombing operation last June, it is even accessible.
• If serious negotiations do actually get underway following this weekend’s meeting, it is expected that several months of talks would be needed to finalise agreement on the nuclear issue alone regardless of whether other items on the agenda are addressed or not.

Looking ahead: The location of this weekend’s US-Iran talks is still not settled, with some reports indicating that the US has agreed to move the talks from Turkey to Oman and others contradicting that claim. The Iranians have requested to change the location of the talks, originally scheduled for Istanbul.

• It was unclear why the change of venue was important to the Iranians, though there was speculation that the significance of the new location was that fewer third parties would be involved.
• Direct US-Iran talks are expected to mostly focus on the Iranian nuclear programme, which the Iranians have indicated they are willing to discuss, while broader talks would likely touch on concerns about both the Iranian ballistic missile programme and Iran’s regional proxies, which the Iranians are less eager to discuss.
• The President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner is expected to join Special Envoy Steve Witkoff on the US side of this weekend’s talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. In Jerusalem this is seen positively, as Kushner is considered by Israeli officials to be both better informed and less eager to reach a deal at all costs than Witkoff.

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday warned Iran not to make the mistake of attacking Israel.

• Netanyahu said, “President Trump will decide whatever he decides; the State of Israel will decide what we will decide. We are monitoring events. If I may use the phrasing that I use from time to time, we are prepared for any scenario. If Iran makes the mistake of attacking us, it will meet with a response that it cannot even imagine.”
• He was also asked about the investigation of his chief of staff, Tzachi Braverman, which the prime minister described as “one big fake news event and a witch hunt that used criminal methods.” When asked specifically whether Braverman would be appointed Israeli ambassador to Britain, Netanyahu replied, “why not?”
• It comes as President Trump declared, “There is another beautiful armada floating beautifully toward Iran right now,” before adding, “I hope they make a deal.”
• Yesterday, CENTCOM’s air component, AFCENT, announced that it will commence a multi-day “readiness exercise to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower across the US Central Command area of responsibility.” This comes just a day after the arrival in the Middle East of the carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln.
• In parallel, Iran and the US holding quiet contacts mediated by Oman and Qatar, aimed at reaching a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue as well as other issues. There are suggestions that Iran is showing flexibility, reflecting the intense pressure on the regime. The talks are being held between Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and US envoy Witkoff.
• Israel and the US want Iran to stop all efforts to enrich uranium, agree to remove their current stockpile out of Iran, and end their programme to expand ballistic missile development and production.
• As the US has increased its force build up ahead of a possible strike against Iran, the scope of the horrific massacre that was committed in the streets across the country has begun to emerge. According to intelligence recently released, the number of people who were killed by the regime in its bid to suppress the protests has reached tens of thousands. Iran International, an opposition media outlet, reported that more than 36,000 people have been killed so far. Time Magazine cited two Iranian Health Ministry officials as saying that up to 30,000 people were killed in the streets in Iran just on January 8-9.

Context: In the case of  any external intervention it is the primary responsibility of the international community – led by the US – to protect the Iranian people from the repressive regime.

• Israel has assisted in obtaining intelligence that indicates Iran carried out mass executions of protesters, contradicting assurances allegedly given by Iranian leaders to President Trump. Trump had cited Iran’s supposed cancellation of over 800 executions as a reason for delaying military action (while Iran denied both the promise and the existence of such execution plans.) US intelligence reportedly includes first-person testimony of executions and live fire against protesters, which Israel played a role in collecting and corroborating.
• There appear to be three scenarios:
  • US military strikes that will aim to significantly weaken the Islamic Republic.
  • Iranian willingness for a ‘capitulation agreement’ that would include abandoning its nuclear capacity and missile programmes, something it has consistently refused to do in the past. Despite Natanz’s destruction, Fordo is thought to remain active, its defences are being upgraded, and the stockpile of highly enriched uranium is dispersed across the country. While Iran is not currently enriching uranium, it could have the capacity to assemble an improvised nuclear device.
  • An assessment that a US military strike is not feasible and the absence of an agreement, which might leave Iran suffering from slow systemic collapse under sanctions and internal decay.
• The Trump administration is  apparently split. In the diplomatic camp, the envoys Witkoff and Kushner favour negotiations to avoid regional war and preserve broader Middle East stabilisation plans, supported by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The more hawkish camp reportedly includes Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of War Hegseth. They endorse a decisive military strike to weaken or topple the Iranian regime, viewing it as morally and strategically justified. 
• At the current juncture Trump appears to favour exhausting the diplomatic channel before launching a military operation.
• Israel assesses that the regime’s failure to defend itself during the 12 Day War of Summer 2025 shattered the fear barrier among the population, accelerating long-term instability.
• Israel has also warned that the negotiations are merely another a stalling tactic, and the gaps between the sides remain unbridgeable. On the other hand, abandoning their nuclear and missile programme would bring sanctions relief and offer regime an economic lifeline.
• Other US allies in the region including Saudi Arabia appear to be adopting a more cautious approach towards military entanglement. In contrast, Israel, the UK, Jordan are thought to support potential US military action, offering intelligence, logistics, and missile-defence cooperation.
• US CENTCOM commander Admiral Cooper recently spent several days in Israel, reinforcing the impression that US and Israel militaries are reaching new heights of coordination, including integrating joint air defence and shared target banks.
• Netanyahu has always seen Iran as the overriding strategic issue that influences all other fronts (Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, West Bank and Yemen).
• Israel remains deeply concerned over a surprise Iranian missile or drone strike, prompting intense intelligence monitoring and readiness for a response.    

Looking ahead: It remains unclear whether US-Iranian diplomatic talks will reach a successful conclusion and avoid war, with the ultimate decision to be made by Trump.

• The working assumption within Israel is that with the regime at an all-time weak point, a US attack could be a game-changer. Trump has made conflicting statements – warning Iran that he would bomb them and also saying he hoped diplomacy will work. He loathes any comparison to Barack Obama, who in his view abandoned the Iranian people in the 2009 Green Revolution and did nothing after his ‘red line’ in Syria was crossed by Assad.  
• If the US were to strike, the working assumption within Israel is that the country will be attacked in response. In such a scenario, Israel is expected to retaliate.
• Another question is whether in the aftermath of US (and Israeli) strikes, the regime might fall. Many analysts have concluded that the current situation constitutes a rare opportunity to topple the regime that should not be missed.