What’s happening: US and Iranian representatives will meet as scheduled in Oman for talks tomorrow, after reports yesterday suggested that the talks had been cancelled.

• A Trump administration official told the Associated Press that several Arab and Muslim leaders had urged the administration not to walk away from talks even though Iranian officials had pressed to narrow their scope. According to the report, the White House is sceptical about the prospects of the talks’ success.
• President Trump told NBC that Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei “should be very worried,” but added that the Iranians are “negotiating with us.”

Context: It remains the case that the US are looking to exhaust diplomatic channels, primarily to garner international legitimacy before resorting to military strikes.

• US Secretary of State Rubio, appears to hold the same view as Israel, that there are four issues that need to be on the agenda. On Thursday, Rubio reiterated, “I think in order for talks to actually lead to something meaningful they will have to include certain things, and that includes the range of their ballistic missile. That includes their sponsorship of terrorist organisations across the region. That includes the nuclear programme. And that includes the treatment of their own people.” As it currently stands the Iranians are only willing to discuss the nuclear file.  
• Vice President Vance has warned of the risks of nuclear proliferation across the Middle East if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons. He also highlighted the unique difficulties of dealing with Iran. Whereas with Russia and China President Trump can have direct conversations with their leaders, this is not possible with Iran’s Supreme Leader. Vance added that President Trump was trying to achieve his objectives through diplomacy, but would take military action if he felt that was the only way possible.
• The US continues its force build up sending even more military aircraft to the region.
• For further context, see our briefings from earlier this week:
  • Israel braces for Iran escalation, Thursday, February 4
  • US Envoy Witkoff to arrive in Israel, Wednesday, February 3

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet, which was scheduled to convene on Sunday, has been moved up to Thursday afternoon.

What’s happened: As diplomatic attention focuses on upcoming negotiations between Iran the US this weekend, in Israel there is an increasing consensus that a US operation in Iran is inevitable.

• Leaks to that effect to local media followed the meeting yesterday between senior Israeli officials, including the Prime Minister, and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.
• That meeting lasted three and a half hours, and no details from what was discussed were publicly reported.
• With the US “armada” largely in place in the Gulf region, two minor incidents demonstrated the high level or alert on all sides yesterday. An Iranian drone  flying towards the  aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was downed by a F-35 fighter jet. And there were murky reports of an IRGC speedboat intercepted by the US forces as well.
• The IDF’s Home Front Command held a large exercise at its Zikim base, near the Gaza border. The exercise simulated a massive missile strike on a large population area, with wounded people trapped in collapsed towers and rubble. The exercise was both an implementation of lessons learned from last years Twelve Day War with Iran and preparation for the possibility of an imminent war following upon a expected US offensive against the Islamic regime.

Context: From the US perspective, there are four pressing issues in the Iran file: the nuclear programme, the ballistic missile programme, Iran’s regional proxies, and the regime’s violent crackdown on protesters earlier this winter.

• It was the last issue that prompted the escalation in the US military presence as well as Trump’s threat to initiate military action against Iran. But it is also this last issue which doesn’t seem to be on the table in any way in the upcoming negotiations between the two countries.
• The threat to topple the regime could yield concessions on other issues which are a priority for the US and its regional allies, but that would mean abandoning President’s Trump “help is on its way” pledge. Israeli analysts are sceptical that Trump will ultimately be willing to do this.
• Even on the first three issues, there is no guarantee that there is a genuine willingness for give and take on all equally. The US and Iran are mostly focussed on the first — the nuclear programme. Israeli analysts believe Iran will not consider any real concessions on Iran’s proxy forces, as this too would, in the Iranian perspective, put the regime’s survivability in question.
• Regarding the first issue, the current US position is a demand to completely halt the nuclear programme and ship Iran’s stock of enriched uranium, estimated at some 450 kg, out of the country (presumably to Russia). It is not known definitively where this stock is or if, following the US bombing operation last June, it is even accessible.
• If serious negotiations do actually get underway following this weekend’s meeting, it is expected that several months of talks would be needed to finalise agreement on the nuclear issue alone regardless of whether other items on the agenda are addressed or not.

Looking ahead: The location of this weekend’s US-Iran talks is still not settled, with some reports indicating that the US has agreed to move the talks from Turkey to Oman and others contradicting that claim. The Iranians have requested to change the location of the talks, originally scheduled for Istanbul.

• It was unclear why the change of venue was important to the Iranians, though there was speculation that the significance of the new location was that fewer third parties would be involved.
• Direct US-Iran talks are expected to mostly focus on the Iranian nuclear programme, which the Iranians have indicated they are willing to discuss, while broader talks would likely touch on concerns about both the Iranian ballistic missile programme and Iran’s regional proxies, which the Iranians are less eager to discuss.
• The President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner is expected to join Special Envoy Steve Witkoff on the US side of this weekend’s talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. In Jerusalem this is seen positively, as Kushner is considered by Israeli officials to be both better informed and less eager to reach a deal at all costs than Witkoff.

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday warned Iran not to make the mistake of attacking Israel.

• Netanyahu said, “President Trump will decide whatever he decides; the State of Israel will decide what we will decide. We are monitoring events. If I may use the phrasing that I use from time to time, we are prepared for any scenario. If Iran makes the mistake of attacking us, it will meet with a response that it cannot even imagine.”
• He was also asked about the investigation of his chief of staff, Tzachi Braverman, which the prime minister described as “one big fake news event and a witch hunt that used criminal methods.” When asked specifically whether Braverman would be appointed Israeli ambassador to Britain, Netanyahu replied, “why not?”
• It comes as President Trump declared, “There is another beautiful armada floating beautifully toward Iran right now,” before adding, “I hope they make a deal.”
• Yesterday, CENTCOM’s air component, AFCENT, announced that it will commence a multi-day “readiness exercise to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower across the US Central Command area of responsibility.” This comes just a day after the arrival in the Middle East of the carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln.
• In parallel, Iran and the US holding quiet contacts mediated by Oman and Qatar, aimed at reaching a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue as well as other issues. There are suggestions that Iran is showing flexibility, reflecting the intense pressure on the regime. The talks are being held between Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and US envoy Witkoff.
• Israel and the US want Iran to stop all efforts to enrich uranium, agree to remove their current stockpile out of Iran, and end their programme to expand ballistic missile development and production.
• As the US has increased its force build up ahead of a possible strike against Iran, the scope of the horrific massacre that was committed in the streets across the country has begun to emerge. According to intelligence recently released, the number of people who were killed by the regime in its bid to suppress the protests has reached tens of thousands. Iran International, an opposition media outlet, reported that more than 36,000 people have been killed so far. Time Magazine cited two Iranian Health Ministry officials as saying that up to 30,000 people were killed in the streets in Iran just on January 8-9.

Context: In the case of  any external intervention it is the primary responsibility of the international community – led by the US – to protect the Iranian people from the repressive regime.

• Israel has assisted in obtaining intelligence that indicates Iran carried out mass executions of protesters, contradicting assurances allegedly given by Iranian leaders to President Trump. Trump had cited Iran’s supposed cancellation of over 800 executions as a reason for delaying military action (while Iran denied both the promise and the existence of such execution plans.) US intelligence reportedly includes first-person testimony of executions and live fire against protesters, which Israel played a role in collecting and corroborating.
• There appear to be three scenarios:
  • US military strikes that will aim to significantly weaken the Islamic Republic.
  • Iranian willingness for a ‘capitulation agreement’ that would include abandoning its nuclear capacity and missile programmes, something it has consistently refused to do in the past. Despite Natanz’s destruction, Fordo is thought to remain active, its defences are being upgraded, and the stockpile of highly enriched uranium is dispersed across the country. While Iran is not currently enriching uranium, it could have the capacity to assemble an improvised nuclear device.
  • An assessment that a US military strike is not feasible and the absence of an agreement, which might leave Iran suffering from slow systemic collapse under sanctions and internal decay.
• The Trump administration is  apparently split. In the diplomatic camp, the envoys Witkoff and Kushner favour negotiations to avoid regional war and preserve broader Middle East stabilisation plans, supported by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The more hawkish camp reportedly includes Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of War Hegseth. They endorse a decisive military strike to weaken or topple the Iranian regime, viewing it as morally and strategically justified. 
• At the current juncture Trump appears to favour exhausting the diplomatic channel before launching a military operation.
• Israel assesses that the regime’s failure to defend itself during the 12 Day War of Summer 2025 shattered the fear barrier among the population, accelerating long-term instability.
• Israel has also warned that the negotiations are merely another a stalling tactic, and the gaps between the sides remain unbridgeable. On the other hand, abandoning their nuclear and missile programme would bring sanctions relief and offer regime an economic lifeline.
• Other US allies in the region including Saudi Arabia appear to be adopting a more cautious approach towards military entanglement. In contrast, Israel, the UK, Jordan are thought to support potential US military action, offering intelligence, logistics, and missile-defence cooperation.
• US CENTCOM commander Admiral Cooper recently spent several days in Israel, reinforcing the impression that US and Israel militaries are reaching new heights of coordination, including integrating joint air defence and shared target banks.
• Netanyahu has always seen Iran as the overriding strategic issue that influences all other fronts (Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, West Bank and Yemen).
• Israel remains deeply concerned over a surprise Iranian missile or drone strike, prompting intense intelligence monitoring and readiness for a response.    

Looking ahead: It remains unclear whether US-Iranian diplomatic talks will reach a successful conclusion and avoid war, with the ultimate decision to be made by Trump.

• The working assumption within Israel is that with the regime at an all-time weak point, a US attack could be a game-changer. Trump has made conflicting statements – warning Iran that he would bomb them and also saying he hoped diplomacy will work. He loathes any comparison to Barack Obama, who in his view abandoned the Iranian people in the 2009 Green Revolution and did nothing after his ‘red line’ in Syria was crossed by Assad.  
• If the US were to strike, the working assumption within Israel is that the country will be attacked in response. In such a scenario, Israel is expected to retaliate.
• Another question is whether in the aftermath of US (and Israeli) strikes, the regime might fall. Many analysts have concluded that the current situation constitutes a rare opportunity to topple the regime that should not be missed.

What’s happened: Violence continues to engulf Iran as the Islamic Republic’s forces crack down on protests throughout the country.

• Official regime sources put the death toll of protesters at around 2000, with unofficial and unverified reports placing the real figure at 12,000 and even higher. The higher estimates are based on reports coming from Iranian hospitals treating thousands of victims with bullet wounds.
• There were also reports that regime forces themselves have sustained casualties, possibly as high as 500 killed. If these reports are true, it would indicate a much more violent encounter between protesters and security forces, and it would constitute another bit of evidence that the official death toll of 2,000 is extremely low.
• President Trump gave further hints that the US are poised to take military action against the Iranian regime, posting yesterday on his social media account that “help is on its way.” At a speech in Michigan later in the day, Trump called on “Iranian patriots” to “keep protesting and take over your institutions if you can,” adding, “Save the names of the killers and abusers that are abusing you. You are being very badly abused.” At the speech, he repeated again that “help is on its way.”
• In the meantime, Trump announced an immediate 25% tariff on goods from countries with commercial ties with Iran. There has not yet been any announcement on its implementation. Countries that have both commercial ties with Iran and a significant trade portfolio with the US include China, Turkey, India, the UAE, and Pakistan.

Context: In recent days, as the violent uprising in Iran escalated, Iranian officials sought to reopen negotiations with the Trump administration on an agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.

• Initially, some US officials expressed a tentative openness to proceeding. Israeli officials quoted anonymously in local media described the Iranian move as a “trap” designed to prevent the US from taking military action against regime targets in support of the protesters. Whatever openness there might have been by administration officials was shut down yesterday by Trump’s post on social media that “I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS.”
• Current Israeli assessments are that Trump will make good on his threat to attack Iran. The initial threat was that the US would attack if the Iranians violently cracked down on protesters with deadly force, something which has since happened.
• Trump has twice ordered military operations against Iran, first in 2020 in the assassination of Qasem Soleimani and second in 2025 when he sent B-2 bombers with bunker busters to destroy three Iranian nuclear facilities. In both cases, a very limited operation was launched at a precise target in conditions where success was nearly assured. An American operation that is longer, broader, and less likely to have a decisive impact on the course of events will not appeal to the President. A clear target timed and executed in a way that might actually bring the regime down, on the other hand, might — if such a target exists.
• The clearest targets in this case would be the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the various security agencies most directly implicated in the violent repression of the current uprising, most notably the IRGC’s Basij (internal repression militia). The US would also like to both disrupt the communications capacities of the regime and at the same time restore those of the protesters. Even here, in the best case scenario, the protesters would still need to be able to marshal enough manpower to overcome regime forces.
• Latest reports suggest that Israel and US-aligned Arab states were urging the US to hold off on an attack for the time being and wait until the regime was further weakened by the uprising. In the meantime, those states urged the US to assist protesters to get around the communications blackout imposed by the regime, as well as target it with cyberattacks and possibly assassinations as well.
• American interest in a possible military action in Iran comes at a time of reduced US naval presence in the Gulf. In October, a carrier group was moved from the Gulf to the Caribbean in anticipation of military action in Venezuela. The US maintains six Navy warships in the Gulf, as opposed to twelve in the Caribbean. In the US attack on Iran in June, long range bombers took off from a base in Missouri, however that was for a radically different mission than the one under consideration now.
• Israeli and US defence officials remain in close dialogue. In addition, US CENTCOM has now opened a new coordination office at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar to enhance regional integrated air and missile defence.

Looking ahead: Israel remains on alert for a possible Iranian attack in response to any US move — or even a surprise attack.

• For now, Home Front Command has not issued any special instructions and schools and businesses are operating as usual.
• Israeli officials have also speculated that Iran-backed terrorist organisations might mount an attack on an Israeli or Jewish target outside the region.
• The US administration has indicated that it would like to convene the first meeting of the Board of Peace, the advisory board for overseeing postwar Gaza governance, sometime next week in Switzerland. Membership of the Board has not been announced beyond its designated High Representative, the Bulgarian diplomat Nikolay Mladenov who is broadly trusted and well regarded by all sides in the conflict. However, reports have suggested Prime Minister Starmer could be involved too.
• The Board sent officials letters of invitation to participate in the technocratic committee that is supposed to actually govern Gaza in place of Hamas, according to the ceasefire agreement which went into effect last October. The committee, known as the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCACG) includes a former Deputy Transportation Minister from the Palestinian Authority and the Chair of the Gaza Chamber of Commerce.

What’s happening: Israel’s political and security leadership are carrying out regular situation assessments, multiple times a day, to review the ongoing protests in Iran.

• Ahead of the government’s weekly meeting, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Israel is closely monitoring the events unfolding in Iran. The protests for freedom have spread throughout the country. The people of Israel, and the entire world, stand in awe of the immense bravery of Iran’s citizens.”
• He added, “Israel supports their struggle for freedom and firmly condemns the mass killings of innocent civilians. We all hope that the Persian nation will soon be liberated from the yoke of tyranny, and when that day comes, Israel and Iran will once again be faithful partners in building a future of prosperity and peace for both nations.”
• Anti-regime groups assess that over 2,000 people have been killed over the weekend, since the Basij  paramilitaries have begun opening fire on protestors.
• Speaking from his home in the US, the son of the exiled Iranian monarch, Reza Pahlavi, yesterday declared that the transition from civil protest to national uprising to liberate Iran had begun. He urged demonstrators to take over the main streets and declared all the regime’s propaganda institutions a legitimate targets. He called on the security forces to join and help topple the regime. He also expressed support for peace with Israel.
• Iranian leaders have threatened that if they are attacked by the US, they will target Israel in response. In light of this, Israel has deployed its array of anti-missile defence systems and is confident its intelligence will track any direct threat.

Context: As the protests enter their third week, there is growing concern over the level of violence now being deployed by the regime against the protestors.

• Some analysts believe the current events are on a different scale and volume than in the past, and the barrier of fear appears to have been broken. Others caution that that there hasn’t been a substantial growth or further spreading of the campaign and that it is limited to pockets of support, the majority in east Tehran.
• Israel assesses that until last Thursday, the Iranian leadership was confident that the protests could be contained, but since then they have become more concerned.
• One sign the Iranian regime views the current protests as particularly dangerous is their decision on Thursday evening to completely shut down internet access across the country. Growing evidence that the regime is now shooting protestors suggests that the regime’s fears for survival are palpable.    
• According to Israeli analysts the current strength of the regime includes:
  • 150,000 – 200,000 members of the IRGC who are ideologically committed and to a degree insulated from the financial instability.
  • 2 million active members of the Basij paramilitary enforcers, who number a further 3 million affiliates. Although they generally come from working class backgrounds, whose families are most likely seriously harmed by the economic crisis, they too have not shown any significant signs of rebellion.
  • Approximately 420,000 members of the army, considered the weak underbelly of the regime (and not involved in clamping down on the protests). They have not yet shown signs of significant changes in allegiance.      
• One critical factor will be if policemen and soldiers defect to join the protests. This happened in the overhaul of the regimes in Egypt and Tunisia, but has not yet occurred in Iran.
• Israel’s defence establishment assesses a low to very low possibility that Israel will be attacked. Former National Security Council director Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror told Kan News, “The odds of them opening fire on the State of Israel—and giving the United States and Israel the legitimacy to use their full power against Iran—are extremely slim. It behoves us to be modest: whatever can be done under the radar should be done under the radar, and whatever requires publicity should not be done, which includes not talking. Let’s hope that this opposition succeeds.”
• Since the Israeli Operation Rising Lion last July, Iran remains exposed to air strikes.  
• Netanyahu is insisting on coalition communications discipline, that only he will speak on the matter. This followed more provocative statements from ministers last week.
• Donald Trump, who warned that the US might get involved if the regime killed protestors, has said that the “military is looking at” “very strong options.” These might include:
  • An advanced military posture as an initial step, moving more naval assets and aircraft to the region, particularly in order to augment the defence of US bases.  
  • Cyber-attacks against the Iranian tools of repression, command and control centres.
  • Running psych-ops, exposing and embarrassing the regime to encourage the protestors.                            
  • Military strikes on Iranian military or government targets, which at this point seems less likely, although continued regime repression could trigger an intervention, especially as some opposition voices inside Iran are calling for US military assistance.
• Trump  feels emboldened following the audacious operation in Venezuela and his ability to deliver regime change. However most of the US’s regional allies including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar  and UAE are opposed to a military intervention.    
• Israel enjoys intimate security coordination and intelligence sharing with the US, but any decision to strike or intervene will be made in Washington.              

Looking ahead: Israel is concerned the Iranian regime will become even more violent in clamping down on the protests.  

• The more the regime begins to fear for its own survival, the greater the risk becomes that it might make a miscalculation. Consequently, Israel will be very cautious about public statements.
• President Trump has said that Iran reached out to the US regarding potential negotiations on its nuclear programme, and that the US may agree to meet. He also added that he is in contact with Iranian opposition leaders.
• Reza Pahlavi, the crown prince, is positioning himself as a leader in waiting, with some of the protesting crowds calling to restore the monarchy.